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Afghan optimism and support for the war bounces

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Wednesday, January 13, 2010 08:16
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VIEWED: 987
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Monday, January 11, 2010 5:23 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

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Monday, January 11, 2010 6:56 AM

BYTEMITE


I note that the Afghans say that this is more to do with growing antipathy towards the Taliban and wanting them defeated than it is about the troop surge. Who they tolerate more is dependent upon who they think is the least likely to kill them. And the Taliban tend to hang themselves with moderates.

So... Good, but I'm not sure that this shift required an American troop surge, or even American presence.

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Monday, January 11, 2010 7:26 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!




Put a gold coin in somebody's hand and a gun to their head and they will say whatever you want. Predator Reaper drones slaughtering wedding parties and entire villages also has impact on public opinion. Buying opium makes the brother of the Afghan president Knight of the British Empire very rich, with production up 1,600% since the invasion 9 years ago (heroin at $1-billion per ton).



Obama is now paying the Taliban in gold bars by adding a new war tax on USA. Obama and Bush already gave the Taliban and Al Qaeda 200,000 free guns. Bush has been flying and rescuing Taliban and Al Qaeda troops from US military attack since 2001.

US generals now predict 500 US soldiers per month will be murdered in Afghanistan...

If you want links google it yourself, or start reading the daily corporate news for yourself.

Frankly, I'm pulling for the freedom Fighters. Any US soldier who fights outside USA in undeclared wars, without filing criminal charges against his or her chain of command, is not worthy of US citizenship. Hopefully they will be killed before they return to USA to be psycho cops, like 100,000 US troops have been killed so far in this 20-year war.

Manson Family prosecutor Vinnie Bugliosi demands the immedate arrest of Hussein Obama, trial, and death sentence for mass murder. Any county grand jury can indict Obama for murder, when local residents are killed as soldiers. Same death penalty for Billary and Bush. I agree.



Nuke Israel. DO IT NOW.

The Complete Guide to Killing Non-Jews - by Rabbi Od Yosef Hai Yeshiva, 9 Nov 2009
http://desertpeace.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/updated-version-of-the-com
plete-guide-to-killing-non-jews
/

British court indicts Israeli minister for warcrimes against Israeli Semites
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.asp?b=18&t=41155

Israeli Law of Return only allows citizenship for jews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Return

The Life of an American Jew in Racist Marxist Israel Where Christianity Is a Felony
http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/israel.htm

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Monday, January 11, 2010 7:36 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

Who they tolerate more is dependent upon who they think is the least likely to kill them.
Yup. And I distrust polls--if a Brit is asking the question, I can all too easily imagine any Afghan saying something positive, just to please the questioner. So it means nothing to me.



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Monday, January 11, 2010 8:40 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


The link to more substantial answers show a different slant

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8452975.stm

funny they put up four people, who show a different opinion than the poll they are quoting...




Either your with the terrorists, or ... your with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 2:22 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

I'm not sure that this shift required an American troop surge


I would guess the 'bounce' is in response to the troop surge (the poll is 2010). Afghanistan has been a neglected theatre for many years.

And no, Afghan opinion does not requires our military presence, but it is still important (Afghan opinion).

Quote:

Yup. And I distrust polls--if a Brit is asking the question, I can all too easily imagine any Afghan saying something positive, just to please the questioner. So it means nothing to me.

Seems a little cynical to me, but fair enough.

Quote:

The link to more substantial answers show a different slant

There's a bit of a different tone about those opinions, and I can think of a few reasons why that might be. I would say that the poll may be representative (the basic idea) but it doesn't tell the whole story. Afghans can be hopeful for the future and desire NATO forces to stay, yet still be angry and dissatisfied about certain things.

Heads should roll

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Monday, January 11, 2010 2:37 PM

BYTEMITE


The drug trade is one place where PN makes a very good point. The BBC news article Gino linked to is slanted, but I think that what we're looking at is write-in opinions that the BBC asked for in addition to the polls, and they probably published the most coherent. In any case, notice the comment about the drag trade the first essayist makes: "The people who should really be tried are the warlords who are now part of our government. The corruption is rife and nothing has changed in regards to drug trafficking, so people ask themselves why the government isn't doing anything to stop this."

This is why some people, including myself, think America is complicit in letting this go on. The CIA does get a lot of funding for it's War on Drugs.

Quote:

Heroin production and smuggling

In the 1980s, top U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officials believed that they would never be able to justify a multibillion-dollar budget from the U.S. government to fund the Afghan radicals, 'The Mujahideen', in their fight against the Soviet army, which had occupied Afghanistan. As a result, the Mujahideen decided to generate funds through the poppy-rich Afghan soil and heroin production and smuggling to finance the Afghan war.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_Drugs#Heroin_production_and_smuggl
ing


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_Drugs#.22War.22_as_a_propaganda_te
rm


Though admittedly, that article could have been hit by people with an agenda of their own in regards to drug use.

I also found this curious:

Quote:

On May 13, 2009, Gil Kerlikowske, the current Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, signaled that the Obama administration would not use the term "War on Drugs," as he claims it is counter-productive and is contrary to the policy favoring treatment over incarceration in trying to reduce recreational drug use.


Sooo... What are we gonna call it then, and where is the legislation for it? I'm tired of empty fucking promises. Wave your hands, make up a name, an unpopular policy doesn't change.

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Monday, January 11, 2010 4:01 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

I'm not sure that this shift required an American troop surge


I would guess the 'bounce' is in response to the troop surge (the poll is 2010). Afghanistan has been a neglected theatre for many years.

And no, Afghan opinion does not requires our military presence, but it is still important (Afghan opinion).

Quote:

Yup. And I distrust polls--if a Brit is asking the question, I can all too easily imagine any Afghan saying something positive, just to please the questioner. So it means nothing to me.

Seems a little cynical to me, but fair enough.

Quote:

The link to more substantial answers show a different slant

There's a bit of a different tone about those opinions, and I can think of a few reasons why that might be. I would say that the poll may be representative (the basic idea) but it doesn't tell the whole story. Afghans can be hopeful for the future and desire NATO forces to stay, yet still be angry and dissatisfied about certain things.

Heads should roll



The problem with polls of this nature is they are easy to slant...

This poll was of about 1500 people
" The survey was conducted in all of the country's 34 provinces in December 2009. "


a really small polling number..

also what was the question ? that is the big one for me, wording can be everything in North American polls, in Afghanistan with both language and culture coming into play that becomes even more important. Which is what I think Niki was getting at...

Other things, how many of the people asked were Women ?

How many were Pashtun ? How many Tajik ?

How many live in towns, How many rural ?

was the polling even though those 34 provinces ?

The poll and the interviews do provide some insight, but without more data it is hard to see how accurate the poll is...



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 4:19 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Another weird this with this poll...


it was conducted by the " Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research "

which I googled and found out it is a subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc, which I googled and found out it is a US company based in Vienna, Virgina... just down the road from the CIA headquarters.

weird right ?



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, January 11, 2010 4:23 PM

BYTEMITE


Hmmm... Good find, Gino.

Not unexpected, but good find. Kind of a confirmation, really. No country sees another country committing more troops to a war and thinks "hot diggity, they're gonna win this," they think, "uh oh, they're in trouble. Time to pack it up."

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Monday, January 11, 2010 6:22 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Another weird this with this poll...


it was conducted by the " Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research "

which I googled and found out it is a subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc, which I googled and found out it is a US company based in Vienna, Virgina... just down the road from the CIA headquarters.

weird right ?



Your last association is a bit weak, 'in the same state as the CIA headquarters'. Otherwise, quite interesting, a professional US social research company had a hand in this poll. At least that dispels your other worries about the poll not being carried out properly.

Heads should roll

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Monday, January 11, 2010 7:05 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

Another weird this with this poll...


it was conducted by the " Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research "

which I googled and found out it is a subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc, which I googled and found out it is a US company based in Vienna, Virgina... just down the road from the CIA headquarters.

weird right ?



Your last association is a bit weak, 'in the same state as the CIA headquarters'. Otherwise, quite interesting, a professional US social research company had a hand in this poll. At least that dispels your other worries about the poll not being carried out properly.

Heads should roll



LOL it was just when I google the company name the google map popped up and showed them as right across the highway from them... I though hey thats weird.

And no, my concerns are not dispelled... I wonder why the media didn't do the polling themselves, I wonder since a large part of Afghanistan is Taliban controlled, how the polling occurred there...

lots of questions



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 8:01 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I wondered about exactly the same questions as you, Gino, tho' no, it's not specifically what I was trying to say
Quote:

The problem with polls of this nature is they are easy to slant...

This poll was of about 1500 people
" The survey was conducted in all of the country's 34 provinces in December 2009. "

a really small polling number..

also what was the question ? that is the big one for me, wording can be everything in North American polls, in Afghanistan with both language and culture coming into play that becomes even more important. Which is what I think Niki was getting at...

Other things, how many of the people asked were Women ?

How many were Pashtun ? How many Tajik ?

How many live in towns, How many rural ?

was the polling even though those 34 provinces ?

The poll and the interviews do provide some insight, but without more data it is hard to see how accurate the poll is...

Yup, right on. It's all too easy to slant a poll depending on what you ask and who you ask it of. and
Quote:

Seems a little cynical to me, but fair enough
isn't necessarily cynical, KPO; it's a fair theory, given what I know of Afghan mentality. And I'm not at ALL surprised about who did the poll, it's about what I'd expect.



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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 9:38 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

LOL it was just when I google the company name the google map popped up and showed them as right across the highway from them...

Ok fair enough they are pretty close, about 10-15km apart - your circumstancial evidence is a bit stronger than I gave you credit for...

I think one might expect an internationally-minded social research company to be based in suburbs of Washington DC, just like the CIA. If you think 10-15km is suspiciously close then fair enough - I'm personally not convinced.

Quote:

And no, my concerns are not dispelled...

As you like. To me they're a professional company (as you found), and this is their area of expertise. Why assume that they don't know how to do their job, or have done it wrong? You're also assuming that the BBC would turn a blind eye to an unsatisfactory poll.

Niki,
Quote:

And I'm not at ALL surprised about who did the poll, it's about what I'd expect.



'Who' being the CIA? We think that's been established? This is a problem with the internet, it allows people to believe what they want all too easily, just by being google conspirators.

Quote:

isn't necessarily cynical, KPO; it's a fair theory, given what I know of Afghan mentality.

Well first of all the poll wasn't carried out 'by Brits', it was commissioned by British, German and US news agencies, and carried out by the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research (subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc), as we know, under the guiding hand of the CIA. Also your theory doesn't explain the bounce relative to all the previous polls, all similarly conducted? To say 'it means nothing' I maintain, is dismissive.

Heads should roll

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 11:03 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


D3 has had results that conflicted with other polling done by others at nearly the same time in the past

http://www.acp-cpa.ca/en/PollingAfghanistan.htm

" The Environics poll, conducted by D3 Systems in Afghanistan is being touted as "groundbreaking" research into the views of the Afghan people about the NATO occupation. The reality is that there are as many questions as answers arising from the poll results.

This new poll is not the first of its kind to be done in Afghanistan, but the results are striking because they contradict dozens of comprehensive studies conducted by other agencies. For example a remarkable 73 per cent of respondents in the D3 Systems study said that women's rights were improving in Afghanistan. This contradicts the NGO Womenkind Worldwide which found that attacks against women have actually been on the rise since 2001 and that there had been no improvement in the lives of Afghan women as a whole.

Likewise, a whopping 76 per cent of people said that they have "a lot" or "some" confidence in the Afghan National Army and 60 per cent have faith in the Afghan National Police (ANP). This contradicts countless documents from groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch who have consistently found that a majority of Afghans cite the Army and ANP as a chief source of violence. In fact, poll results from December 2006 found 78 per cent of Afghan people believed that the ANP was corrupt and one in four Afghans had to pay bribes to local police for protection. So therefore, the numbers from D3 Systems either represent an astounding turnaround in public opinion or there was some type of flaw in the research.

These strange results aren't surprising given the history of the D3 Systems polling firm. The group, whose former clients include NATO and the RAND Corporation (a virtual who's who of the military industrial complex) is notorious for providing the results that are needed to advance a political agenda. "

continues





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 11:09 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


I would be more comfortable with the results of any polling if I could say it was conducted by a neutral third party, if I knew who was paying for the poll, if I could say their were not political or monetary motives to fudge the results...

It is something like having election monitors in Venezuela sent from the Columbian government...





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 2:13 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

I'm not sure that this shift required an American troop surge


I would guess the 'bounce' is in response to the troop surge (the poll is 2010). Afghanistan has been a neglected theatre for many years.

And no, Afghan opinion does not requires our military presence, but it is still important (Afghan opinion).

Quote:

Yup. And I distrust polls--if a Brit is asking the question, I can all too easily imagine any Afghan saying something positive, just to please the questioner. So it means nothing to me.

Seems a little cynical to me, but fair enough.

Quote:

The link to more substantial answers show a different slant

There's a bit of a different tone about those opinions, and I can think of a few reasons why that might be. I would say that the poll may be representative (the basic idea) but it doesn't tell the whole story. Afghans can be hopeful for the future and desire NATO forces to stay, yet still be angry and dissatisfied about certain things.

Heads should roll



The problem with polls of this nature is they are easy to slant...

This poll was of about 1500 people
" The survey was conducted in all of the country's 34 provinces in December 2009. "


a really small polling number..

also what was the question ? that is the big one for me, wording can be everything in North American polls, in Afghanistan with both language and culture coming into play that becomes even more important. Which is what I think Niki was getting at...

Other things, how many of the people asked were Women ?

How many were Pashtun ? How many Tajik ?

How many live in towns, How many rural ?

was the polling even though those 34 provinces ?

The poll and the interviews do provide some insight, but without more data it is hard to see how accurate the poll is...



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"




Bingo. You can "rig" the hell out of a poll just by asking leading questions that lead to the answers you were looking for, or even by limiting responses to "yes" or "no". For instance, yes or no - Have you stopped beating your wife? See? There's no yes or no answer to that question that I can't twist into something unseemly.

"Do you think Barack Obama apologizes too much for America's actions?" was one recent Fox News polling question. Gosh, what answer do YOU think they'll get? One that supports their agenda? I note for the record that it was a poll of Fox News viewers, too. Not that THEY would be biased at all...

And yes, I have taken entire college courses on political polling. The biggest challenge to having an "unbiased" poll lies in trying to remove ANY bias from the questions - and then you have to screen the pollsters to keep THEM from seeming biased in the asking. And it matters WHO you ask, WHAT you ask, WHEN you ask, and HOW you ask, too.

There seem to be more ways to bias a poll than there are to get an unbiased sampling.

Mike

Work is the curse of the Drinking Class.
- Oscar Wilde

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 2:49 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Yep, yep. I'm not saying that every poll taken is perfect, but I am pointing out that these guys are professional, and should know what they're doing as well as anyone. Better than anyone here.

The only question is whether they have their own agenda. And whether they have a monopoly on country-wide polling inside Afghanistan - because why else would the BBC, ABC and German news provider go to such an obviously integrity-compromised demographics research company (their HQ is only 10-15km from the CIA's!!)?


Heads should roll

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Wednesday, January 13, 2010 8:16 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


KPO, I'll let Gino speak for me{quote]I would be more comfortable with the results of any polling if I could say it was conducted by a neutral third party, if I knew who was paying for the poll, if I could say their were not political or monetary motives to fudge the results...
I've seen and learned too much about polls not to realize how the question is worded, who's asked, and many more things come into the result.
Quote:

Also your theory doesn't explain the bounce relative to all the previous polls, all similarly conducted? To say 'it means nothing' I maintain, is dismissive.
It means nothing to me, that's my right. But earlier polls might well have reflected the Afghan's feeling about our actions over there, and this poll may show a "bounce" because they are now facing a deadline (if it turns out to actually BE one), and they want us to stick around, because the Taliban is worse. Too many times did I watch and smile at the Afghan manner of playing both sides against the middle, saying things people want to hear, to put ALL my faith in polls of Afghans.



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