REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

What does Iowa actually mean?

POSTED BY: NIKI2
UPDATED: Thursday, January 5, 2012 02:44
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Friday, December 30, 2011 7:51 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Essentially, zip. Nada. Nothing. But,
Quote:

As you're being inundated with wall-to-wall coverage of the Iowa caucuses this week, keep the following number in mind: zero.

The quest for the GOP's presidential nomination is ultimately a race for delegates. With 2,286 delegates attending the party's national convention in Tampa at the end of August, the backing of slightly over half of that group -- 1,144 -- will be needed for Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, or someone else to capture the prize.

Guess how many of these delegates will be selected in Iowa on January 3. Zero. Zip. Zilch. Nada.

Iowa matters for one reason only: the media says so. It's been deemed the first "real" contest on the presidential nominating calendar, and for some reason "first" warrants wall-to-wall coverage. The winner -- or perceived winner -- is almost certain to get a campaign cash boost and ride a tidal wave of media-fueled momentum.
.....
Want to know what really happens in Iowa in January? Not much. A few thousand people who care enough about politics to spend an evening at their local library or church basement will decide who gets to attend the state GOP's county conventions in March.

They'll also participate in a non-binding presidential preference vote. ("Non-binding" means the state's national convention delegates do not have to vote according to the preferences of caucus participants.)

And that's about it.

In March, the county convention delegates will decide who attends a bunch of congressional district meetings and a statewide convention in late April and June. That's when most of Iowa's 28 national convention delegates — a bit over 1% of the total number of delegates in Tampa — will actually be chosen. If there's already a likely nominee by that point, you can bet Iowa won't rock the boat.

Remember Mike Huckabee's big win in the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses? The party's eventual nominee, John McCain, won all of Iowa's delegate votes at the national convention.

The history of the Iowa caucuses is actually a case study in the power of the media to shape -- or warp, depending on your point of view -- the nomination contest.

"The name of the presidential nominating game is perception, and the reality of the Iowa precinct caucuses has long been replaced by the media perception," writes Drake University Professor Hugh Winebrenner. "It is not the caucus event per se but the media report of the event that shapes the presidential selection process." http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/28/politics/iowa-caucuses-media/index.html?
hpt=hp_bn3

That about sums it up for me. The "news" and the pundits are completely given over to minute-by-minute information about what's going on in Iowa, who's up, who's down, what the gossip is (like the Bachman defections--who gives a shit??), etc. I find it hard to find any actual NEWS filtering in around all that bullshit.

So Iowa means essentially nothing, except that the media makes out like it means EVERYTHING, so people who watch TV get influenced and it DOES mean a lot. How pathetic!!

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Friday, December 30, 2011 8:53 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Hello,

People who do not perform well in early contests will be largely ignored in later contests. This is the importance of early contests. I wish that all contests were simultaneous to eliminate the 'momentum effect' of cumulative (otherwise valueless) victories.

--Anthony


_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner


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Friday, December 30, 2011 9:33 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by AnthonyT:
People who do not perform well in early contests will be largely ignored in later contests. This is the importance of early contests. I wish that all contests were simultaneous to eliminate the 'momentum effect' of cumulative (otherwise valueless) victories.


The staggered nature generally allows the strongest candidate to emerge. Suppose we'd picked Perry or Cane on momentum and then had the fatal flaws revealed.

My gripe is this "first in the nation" nonsense. It should be staggered like always, but placement should vary from cycle to cycle so that New Hampshire and Iowa are really no more important then Hawaii and California.

My plan would be to recognize several regions such as 'New England, The South, Pacific Coast, West, etc. and choose select states (on a rotating basis) for a series of primaries and causcuses over several months. For example Jan-Feb gets ten states Maine, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and Washington. Then Feb-March gets the next ten...and so on. Then next time, same time periods but rotating states.

I note for the record that Iowa means 'beautiful land' and is named for an Indian tribe.

H

"Hero. I have come to respect you." "I am forced to agree with Hero here."- Chrisisall, 2009.
"I agree with Hero." Niki2, 2011.

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Friday, December 30, 2011 9:39 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Essentially, zip. Nada. Nothing.

If you actually arrive at this answer when asking the question, "What does voting anywhere actually mean?"--you'll be where I am.

It's not just Iowa.

-----
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

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Friday, December 30, 2011 10:02 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Iowa means corn, hogs, wrestling, and The Music Man. As for politics, it represents to me the same modus operandi as men who seek out and use prostitutes. They don't pay them for the sex per se, they pay them to leave quickly afterwards.







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Friday, December 30, 2011 10:38 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


"Suppose we'd picked Perry or Cane on momentum and then had the fatal flaws revealed."

Hello,

I don't understand? These candidates made themselves increasingly invalid before voting began. So how is staggered voting helping this dynamic?

--Anthony


_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner


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Friday, December 30, 2011 5:20 PM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by AnthonyT:


I don't understand? These candidates made themselves increasingly invalid before voting began. So how is staggered voting helping


Ask General Clark, Howard Dean...or maybe Bobby Kennedy.

H


"Hero. I have come to respect you." "I am forced to agree with Hero here."- Chrisisall, 2009.
"I agree with Hero." Niki2, 2011.

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Saturday, December 31, 2011 5:42 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:

People who do not perform well in early contests will be largely ignored in later contests.
But Anthony, what determines how well people perform in early contests?? How they are perceived. How are they perceived? Mostly through news coverage. That's my point. Which is why I FULLY agree with
Quote:

I wish that all contests were simultaneous to eliminate the 'momentum effect' of cumulative (otherwise valueless) victories.
As a Californian, it is absurd to me that we don't vote until six months after everyone else, and makes it very unfair for us. Same is true for lot of states.

I agree, JS...the WAY caucuses work, and their being so much weight on them, irritates the hell out of me. People are SENT to caucuses to convince others who to vote for, it's neither a private selection nor an equal one. This year, for example, so many have said they're not cemented into any candidate, many of them will no doubt change their minds depending on who's speaking at their own caucus. It's insane...not only are they first, but they are unlike other primary contests. Depending on how many people a candidate can get to go to the caucus and speak on their behalf, they'll get a different amount of votes.

Anthony, as we've seen, who's first went up and down like a damned yo-yo for months; right now Santorum is having HIS little "bump". So depending on how was popular at what minute, we could have ended up with Cane or even Bachman...how does that make sense? It's so easy for Iowa to reflect who's on top at any given time, which can give them momentum to go on and others to potentially drop out who could be truly viable candidates (not this year, of course...). Bah.

And of course Iowa is deluged with advertisements for candidates (depending on how much money each camp has), which no doubt affects their voting. AND the caucuses really mean nothing when it comes around to Iowa actually choosing their nominee. Add to that the percentage of evangelicals and those on the religious right who are in Iowa, it reflects them more than anyone else, and they're in actuality a small proportion of the population. So we not only get a skewed view, depending on how the MSM portrays it, we get a further skewed view for the other reasons. In so many ways, it's totally screwed up, in my opinion, and way too influential.



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Saturday, December 31, 2011 6:08 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:

Essentially, zip. Nada. Nothing.




Well, it means corn. Which I happen to enjoy. But as for who gets the GOP nomination... not much, if anything.



"The world is a dangerous place. Not because of the people who are evil; but because of the people who don't do anything about it." - Albert Einstein

You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer. You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves. - Someone.

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Saturday, December 31, 2011 8:34 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!




GOP is terrified Ron Paul will win in Iowa, so its counting all votes in secret at a secret location, because "Anonymous hackers will hack the paper ballots."

Notice how the multinational news repeaters refuse to mention the Ron Paul platform:

1. ELIMINATE THE INCOME TAX AND FIRE ALL IRS EMPLOYEES FOREVER
2. NATIONALIZE THE PRIVATE "FEDERAL" RESERVE BANK THAT COUNTERFEITS ALL SO-CALLED "DOLLAR BILLS" (FEDERAL RESERVE DEBT NOTES) AND STEALS 100% OF FED INCOME TAXES
3. END OBAMA'S 7 WARS, BRING ALL TROOPS HOME TO USA AND PREVENT WORLD WAR 3 WITH COMMUNIST CHINA
4. LEGAL FREEDOM TO SMOKE POT
5. EXPORT 50-MILLION ILLEGAL ALIENS, STARTING WITH HUSSEIN OBAMA SOETORO AND HIS DEADBEAT FAMILY

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Saturday, December 31, 2011 9:19 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:


.... the Ron Paul platform:

1. ELIMINATE THE INCOME TAX AND FIRE ALL IRS EMPLOYEES FOREVER
2. NATIONALIZE THE PRIVATE "FEDERAL" RESERVE BANK THAT COUNTERFEITS ALL SO-CALLED "DOLLAR BILLS" (FEDERAL RESERVE DEBT NOTES) AND STEALS 100% OF FED INCOME TAXES
3. END OBAMA'S 7 WARS, BRING ALL TROOPS HOME TO USA AND PREVENT WORLD WAR 3 WITH COMMUNIST CHINA
4. LEGAL FREEDOM TO SMOKE POT
5. EXPORT 50-MILLION ILLEGAL ALIENS, STARTING WITH HUSSEIN OBAMA SOETORO AND HIS DEADBEAT FAMILY


If that's it, I'm not very impressed. Sounds more like the ravings of a madman.










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Saturday, December 31, 2011 11:05 AM

WULFENSTAR

http://youtu.be/VUnGTXRxGHg


"Essentially, zip. Nada. Nothing."

So... the last vestige of the hyper-liberal.

"It means nothing!!!"

Ron Paul wins Iowa... IT MEANS NOTHING!!

Ron Paul wins every straw poll.... IT MEANS NOTHING!

FOX NEWS cancels the polling because Ron Paul was wining... IT MEANS NOTHING!

The goggles... they do nothing!






"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"



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Saturday, December 31, 2011 11:46 AM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


I keep reading this thread title as 'What does love actually mean?' Very esoteric

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Saturday, December 31, 2011 1:57 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
I agree, JS...the WAY caucuses work, and their being so much weight on them, irritates the hell out of me. People are SENT to caucuses to convince others who to vote for, it's neither a private selection nor an equal one. This year, for example, so many have said they're not cemented into any candidate, many of them will no doubt change their minds depending on who's speaking at their own caucus. It's insane...not only are they first, but they are unlike other primary contests. Depending on how many people a candidate can get to go to the caucus and speak on their behalf, they'll get a different amount of votes.



Once every four years a lot of money pours into Iowa, tens of milions of dollars to local economies and local media. It's a big whoop'd dee doo, even bigger than the annual State Fair. I heard on the news that local church clergy in towns are advising their flocks on who to vote for. That seems a bit messed up to me. Evangelicals are swarming here and there in their Sunday duds like kamikaze bumblebees hell bent on pollinating the sweetest flowers. Evangelicals? Sure. You never hear that term again after Iowa. It's a very bizarre spectacle indeed.











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Sunday, January 1, 2012 6:55 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Poor, poor Wulf. You actually BELIEVE Ron Paul is a viable...anything? Mind you, I've said over and over that I like some of what he says and respect him as a person...but ANY chance at being elected? Oh, dear, that's delusional!

Rather than duplicate, I'll just say "What JS said...both posts". That perfectly explains Ron Paul's popularity in Iowa.

But hey, you're allowed to dream; enjoy!



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Sunday, January 1, 2012 8:34 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


I think Hero's idea is aactually a good one, a rotating system so everyone gets a turn in various regions.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Monday, January 2, 2012 4:45 AM

PENGUIN


I agree.

I am SO tired of the lot of them. They are all a bunch of idiots that I wouldn't trust to run a convenience store.

You all can have them.





King of the Mythical Land that is Iowa

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Monday, January 2, 2012 10:40 AM

HKCAVALIER


Hey Niki,

Um. You have noticed that there's been a huge push from the right-wing media to diminish the significance of the Iowa Caucus precisely because Ron Paul has been doing so well in the polls there, right? Not sure you want your sentiments to be in lock-step with the Carl Rove's of the world.

With the entire Republican field in the crapper, Ron Paul has a distinct chance of winning Iowa. That makes him viable. Looking at the Republican field, Ron Paul is the only candidate who has the slightest chance of unseating Obama. Why do you scoff?

Why is Iowa significant? Because it is. It's not a conspiracy of the media. It's a conspiracy of circumstance. Iowa is the first official contest of the Republican primary season. First impressions, etc.

(Paid for by the HKCavalier/Wulfenstar 2012 campaign)

HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.

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Tuesday, January 3, 2012 7:06 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


I take it you're being satirical, Cav, yes? (especially from the signature...) I don't pay much attention to right-wing media, so wasn't aware they were trying to minimize Iowa's importance. To be honest I'm surprised they WOULD...the left-wing media I've seen are half already moved on to South Carolina, since Romney will no doubt take his home state. Ron Paul winning Iowa (which I still doubt he will) means nothing, so I'd be surprised if it scared the Republican bosses even slightly that he might win Iowa. He's not viable, pure and simple.



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Tuesday, January 3, 2012 8:37 AM

WULFENSTAR

http://youtu.be/VUnGTXRxGHg


"He's not viable, pure and simple."

A quote that has been running around us Ron Paulbots (lol) which really fits.

"First, they ignore you.
Then, they laugh at you.
Then, they fight you.
Then....
YOU WIN."








"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"



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Tuesday, January 3, 2012 12:24 PM

FREMDFIRMA



Maybe not, but he's a hell of a lot more viable than the rest of that mourners bench of fuckin lunatics, half of whom are hell bent on causing WWIII, or so it seems.

You'd think by his very presence and support that'd make the rest of that so-called-party step up their game, but the true face of their lunatic hate has never been so clear - for mine own it's his continued affiliation with such maniacs which is damn near the sole cause for my own lack of interest in him as a candiate, cause if supporting him means supporting THEM...

I'd throw him under the bus in a heartbeat.
So long as he voluntarily affiliates himself with a pack of feckless neo-feudo-fascist bastards who also happen to be blatantly insane, he'll get no backup from me.

-Frem
PS. Don't take that as an endorsement of the pansy-assed shitheels on the other side neither, cause I ain't none too happy about their bullshit neither - but when one side is pretty blatantly ganking for an apocalyptic nuclear armageddon, cretins like Obama look positively sane by comparison.

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Wednesday, January 4, 2012 12:51 PM

WULFENSTAR

http://youtu.be/VUnGTXRxGHg


Sane.

Heh.

Like anyone here can claim that title.

I met Ron Paul once. In 2008. I sat and talked with him for a couple of hours. We were both waiting for our planes to arrive.

You all know me. I'm no saint. But I will say this...

How many of YOU have actually met, and TALKED to a presidential candidate?

I did. One of the benefits of living in and around DC.

If this guy was a psycho I would say so. No lie, I have no interest in living "under" some new Hitler.

But, like Mal would say, hes a true believer. He believes in the singular perfection of the individual. The potential of every single human being.

Honestly, it was like talking to one of the Founders.





"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies"



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Wednesday, January 4, 2012 12:53 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Mitt Romney - what American politics needs - another right winged, millionaire, business man with extremist religious views. Hooray.

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Thursday, January 5, 2012 2:44 AM

FREMDFIRMA



You misunderstand my ire.

Say you were running a business, and desperately needed a good employee, ok ?
Well, one of your people comes to you and tells you about this guy Ronnie, and it's like a dream come true, he's everything you want in an employee, honest, upstanding, diligent - but there's this one little catch, all his friends are in the local street gang.

So you give ole Ronnie his shot, only problem is those hoodlums, they come and hang out at your store, and Ron is as quick as any to chase them off and call them out, but don't you know that never stops em and they just laugh him off, not to mention their presence starts driving away your customers and they occasionally take to mugging them or worse - Ronnie doesn't support this, but he doesn't make any real effort to stop them either, and it comes to a head with some of them delivering a beatdown on one of your potential customers practically in the doorway, and all Ronnie does is lecture them.

And so you call him on the carpet and tell him "look, you gotta cut ties with these lowlifes, things are getting out of hand", and of course he refuses, and now you're fucked - since you can't fire him because his friends are scum, nor can you continue to run your business if he works there.

NOW do you understand my point ?

I don't wanna see our country backed into that corner, and the intention to put us there and exploit the hell out of it is why that party hasn't dumped him - kind of like that cherry car with the bargain price on a used car lot, they'll *NEVER* actually sell it to you, cause if they did it would no longer be able to draw attention off how terrible everything else on that lot is, it's BAIT, is what it is.

Ron Paul is the pretty-shiny bait on the neo-feudo-fascist hook of the Republican party, and it is his unwillingness to acknowledge or admit how he's being used, his lack of will to break ties and put a STOP to that shit, which is where my ire comes from.

Seriously, remove Ron, and then look at what's left of that party, does not my used car lot analogy hold ?

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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