REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The predictions thread

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Sunday, June 10, 2018 05:24
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Monday, November 30, 2015 3:18 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


2012 a poor year
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=54818
lots of bad predictions on the online firefly community


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Paul Krugman wonders if/suggests Japan will perform surprisingly well in the short/medium term because it has just launched fresh stimulus plans


It's not personal. It's just war.



If you want to see the future of looming elderly populations...in the West too, more people rent, they don't buy homes, women don't have kids there is contraception, abortion and the inconvenience of kids, the men they are buying cars, they become more effeminate with feelings, the men buy xboxs and gadgets.....the social changes are massive when you contrast USA of today with the ideal post WW2 nuclear family. the ideal American family is broken and many of the Europeans are not having children either, poor demographics or is the population just balancing itself?

look to Japan to see your future

JAPAN’S BOLD STEPS
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/retire-planni
ng/how-japan-is-coping-with-a-rapidly-aging-population/article27259703
/
People over the age of 65 make up a quarter of Japan’s population, and it’s on track to reach 40 per cent. The top-heavy demographic creates huge challenges for government and the economy. Now the country is tackling the problem with innovative programs, including everything from comprehensive long-term-care insurance to robotics. This is part of the Globe and Mail’s week-long series on baby boomers and how their spending, investing, health and lifestyle decisions could affect Canada’s economy in the next 15 years. Is Canada ready for the boom?


long term trend?


this vid might help out
Notice how the economic ball shifts, it was heading in the direction of the USA and almost inside the USA but the economic sphere suddenly changes direction during Nam, maybe it starts first with the French leading retreat in IndoChina and the USA escalates, getting deeper involved in Vietnam and deeper into the Cold War-era proxy war, finally leading to a withdraw in April 1975...the economics and the movement of this sphere in the video reflect this power shift
Recently during the terms of Bush Jnr and Obama there has been a massive shift.

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Monday, November 30, 2015 9:00 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Clock boy later loses his money in lawsuit, flies overseas escaping with the money to some Arabia place....he lives it up for a while until the sandbox he lives in implodes...



if the middle east civil war or random islamic mob don't get him, he dies of a drug overdose in year 2027

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Wednesday, December 2, 2015 10:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

"I told you a month or so ago... that in a short while you would be cheering for ISIL."- SIGNY

And there is KPO- cheering whenever Russian planes are downed by ISIL. Prediction accomplished.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Wednesday, December 2, 2015 1:20 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
No Best Of 2013?



never seen the thread, anyways seems Trump may have been correct, ok not *thousand* that to me would be too much, maybe memories get fuzzy and the memory you recall gets distorted by the mists of time, police reports are notorious of how eye witness of events tell diluted or exaggerated tales of what really happens....i find it hard to believe a thousand or thousands celebrated but then again reports are coming in

anyways here is the clip, Trump may have been right



there were celebration reports


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Monday, December 7, 2015 9:25 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Big changes in health care, socialism, medical benefit

and a rise of the right in the EU, rise of nationalism in Europe

Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Paul Krugman rounds up 6 conservative predictions on Obamacare: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/zero-for-six/?_php=true&am
p;_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs®ion=Body&_r=0


It's not personal. It's just war.



and many of us predicted a rise of the nationalists and rightwing of Europe

she ditched her rightwing father, maybe the party will move from far-right to a position closer to the French center, a far right party slowly move to the political middle of France?







https://twitter.com/Bad_Sweary_Frog/status/627722273030569985



https://twitter.com/WorthingUKIP/status/673858255882461184










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Wednesday, December 9, 2015 10:57 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy - "Now, possibly, the USA is getting kicked out of Iraq, lock, stock, and barrel."


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015 8:56 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Russia pledges not to stand in the way of Paris climate deal - http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/07/russia-pledges-not-
to-stand-in-the-way-of-paris-climate-deal



kpo: I won't be surprised if Russian negotiators do in fact hold up the climate deal.

Bit of a tentative prediction, but an interesting one to watch...


EDIT: Having said that, here's some analysis that says that Russia has a good deck of cards and is unlikely to spring surprises - http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/paris-climate-talks-russia-will-use-its-huge-
forests-bargaining-chip-cop21-1529685


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015 1:53 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Fierce Kremlin critic Garry Kasparov - "If oil goes below $20, Putin will cross #NATO borders"


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015 4:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:


Signy - "Now, possibly, the USA is getting kicked out of Iraq, lock, stock, and barrel."


I underlined the word "possibly" just in case you missed it. You should notice that I didn't even use the word "probably" ... which means"more likely than not" ... so my statement hardly qualifies as a "prediction", altho you seem pretty desperate to shoehorn it into that category.

Careful KPO, your biases are showing.


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015 6:41 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:


Signy - "Now, possibly, the USA is getting kicked out of Iraq, lock, stock, and barrel."


I underlined the word "possibly" just in case you missed it. You should notice that I didn't even use the word "probably" ... which means"more likely than not" ... so my statement hardly qualifies as a "prediction", altho you seem pretty desperate to shoehorn it into that category.

Careful KPO, your biases are showing.



Do you remember your long post of predictions for Ukraine back in early 2014, some of which came off? Do you remember how you introduced them?

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Plausible future news:


'Plausible' being another word for 'possible'. If you are going to crow repeatedly over your tentative predictions when they come off, as you have done, then you can't complain if all your other tentative predictions get recorded, so that people can see what your record is truly like.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015 10:31 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So, you are going to call something a prediction when the word 'possibly' is underlined in the original?

Are you going to stand by that?




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, December 12, 2015 6:45 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy - "The reform of the IMF lending policy is unlikely to help Ukraine avert default. Kiev may soon declare a technical default, the first step to bankruptcy."


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 8:18 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Hmm, ex-president of Georgia and sworn enemy of Putin Saakashvili predicted the Russian annexation of Crimea, and war in Ukraine:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/03/russia-is-looking-for
-a-hot-war-says-georgia-s-former-president.html


Quote:

“Right now my advice to the Ukraine government is to maintain maximum restraint, but to prepare for the worst, because I don’t think Vladimir Putin is going to stop where he is. He is not going to stop anywhere until he gets rid of the leadership in Kiev,” Saakashvili said in an interview with The Daily Beast on Monday. “The West should be ready that there might be a war here.”

...

There are multiple Russian intelligence organizations stirring up trouble all over Ukraine’s south and east with a goal of preparing a pretext for a large-scale military intervention, he said. The huge military exercises currently ongoing on the Russian side of the border are of the same scale to those that immediately preceded the Russian invasion of Georgia, he pointed out. Russia is also putting out massive amounts of propaganda to establish a narrative that could support a large scale intervention, again eerily similar to their actions in 2008.



Quote:


By 2011, Saakashvili was practically badgering U.S. officials to take seriously his warning that Putin would move on Crimea sooner or later. Another released cable revealed that Saakashvili pressed then Assistant Secretary of Defense Sandy Vershbow (now Deputy Secretary General of NATO) to prepare for this exact event.

“Saakashvili stressed repeatedly that he expected Russia to follow its 2008 invasion of Georgia with intervention in Crimea,” the cable stated. “He predicted that Russia would incite tension in the peninsula and then make a generous offer to Yanukovych (presumed as the next president) to help solve the problem. Saakashvili said that Putin wants to keep the pressure on Ukraine and Georgia as a lesson and a warning to others in the former Soviet Union.”



The signs were there, it seems.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 2:08 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:


Quote:


good website http://www.usdebtclock.org/



Jealous?




So will it break TWENTY by the time Obama finishes, I know it was a big scandal when Bush sent the debt from 9 trillion to 10 trillion breaking the NYC debt clock and forcing them to add an extra digit

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 2:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Friday, December 11, 2015 5:16 AM
kpo - If I wanted to point out truth being 'manufactured' in Russian media, I wouldn't have to go back more than a couple of weeks.


The clock's ticking on this one.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 1:35 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Friday, December 11, 2015 5:16 AM
kpo - If I wanted to point out truth being 'manufactured' in Russian media, I wouldn't have to go back more than a couple of weeks.


The clock's ticking on this one.


If you want to make a prediction on this kiki why don't you go ahead and make one?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 1:38 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

So will it break TWENTY by the time Obama finishes

By my maths it's on course to break 19 trillion, but not 20.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:03 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If people don't run from Hillary, their tingly-spidey-sense is broken.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.



It's sad how the US mainstream media is done, I never thought I would see the today where I would be going to R today to here about reports inside the USA basically the pravda USSR Ruskie media...
Michael Rivero is a woo woo tinfoil head


but less woo woo tinfoil than Alex Jones, David Icke....

you got to admit its a sad day when some the tinfoil heads turn out to make more accurate reports than mainstream media, I guess that is why they call it dinosaur mainstream news. Both parties are a joke now, both are war parties, President Bush began a string of expensive finan­cial bailouts. President Obama began accelerating that course. British Liberal leader of the Labour party Blair agreed to act as a glorified spin doctor for the President by presenting ‘public affairs lines’ to convince a sceptical public that Saddam had Weapons of Mass Destruction – when none existed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3277402/Smoking-gun-emails-rev
eal-Blair-s-deal-blood-George-Bush-Iraq-war-forged-YEAR-invasion-started.html

Swedish Companies Accused Of Profiting Off Refugee Housing
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=16057
Why the Middle Class Is in Revolt and Susceptible to a Dangerous 'Strongman'
"It was only a matter of time before the anxious class would revolt."
http://www.alternet.org/economy/robert-reich-why-middle-class-revolt-a
nd-susceptible-dangerous-strongman

The Trump WWE WWF history
http://www.freedominourtime.blogspot.com/2015/11/donald-trumps-preside
ntial-heel-turn.html

With Soaring Rents and a Vanishing Middle Class, San Francisco Becomes a City for the Rich
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34031-with-soaring-rents-and-a-vani
shing-middle-class-san-francisco-becomes-a-city-for-the-rich


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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 7:29 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

So will it break TWENTY by the time Obama finishes

By my maths it's on course to break 19 trillion, but not 20.




Yes he's gone next year but you haven't even considered the true run of the lame duck Presidency, the usual October surprise followed by November 2016, if its a close election then re-counts? Lame duck politicians are serving out their final terms because they have lost a re-election or are no longer eligible to serve. ...the elected Presidents don't enter office until January 15th or 18th or something in 2017? On this final year they sometimes vaction overseas to shakehands with Euro celebrities, issue presidential pardons, or worse the possibility the President and the US admin drops the ball and fumbles totally as what happened in Carter and the hostage crisis.... no solid data just feelings from Goldman/ECB shutting the Greek Euro banks, the loss of US manufacturing to China and a slowdown in China, a heated Presidential campaign from both sides, the US now spending more money on more wars and other factors looming, I just have a feeling its going to break 20 Tril

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 8:51 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Anyone see the mass media is getting more and more stooopid














Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Signy, on the Paris terrorist attacks:


"THE USA. Will certainly attempt to use the tragedy to unite various European nations/ entities (like NATO) to possibly put "boots on the ground" in Syria, to take over (or at least tag along) with the Russian anti-ISIL effort and ultimately topple Assad."


It's not personal. It's just war.




not sure if anyone is putting more than a few thousand boots there, the middle east will always be an islamic sandbox hole and you might need at least 120,000 to make a differce there...not sure where the people would come from the, will they come USA or is that a political taboo? Allies like Turkey when Turkish are so keen on stabbing the US in the back? The other option is to turn Raqqa to dust as Quinn in the episode of homeland predicted





personally I'm non-interventionist, pull up the draw bridge, raise your fences, close the gates
muslims will continue killing themselves in the middle east and for the USA its gonna be damned if you do and damned if you don't
The solution is make a sound dollar, bunker down and batten down the hatches....then pump money in to the US economy, US military at home (vets), into science and get ready for the next decade....its time to write these failures off....the USA got so strong after WW2 simply because it was a non-interventionist nation that cared for itself, perpetual war and crony capitalism reversed this great trend

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 10:15 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


this one is for the regressive liberals who hated the Republican VP and said they would never agree with Dick Cheney on anything

https://refugeeresettlementwatch.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/jeb-marco-di
ck-dont-get-it-bring-in-the-muslims
/

Quote:

Dick Cheney is the latest of the Republican establishment to come out in support of MORE Muslim migration to America.

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015 10:27 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
BBC correspondents' predictions for 2013



The BBC is a f*cking disaster some do predict they will continue standing up for war mongers, banker crooks and pedophiles like Savile for the next 30 years

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Thursday, December 17, 2015 2:48 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Some US space progam predictions from another thread

Quote:

Originally posted by Opus:

The shuttle was originally sold as a space truck, we'd be launching one every week.
The space station was going to be this enormous structure with a crew of 8 or 9 with two of the crew dedicated to station up keep. The station was redesigned smaller and the crew complement dropped to 6, then 3 , now we're down to 2.
NASA should be shut down, everyone fired, all it's buildings, records and equipment destroyed and we should start from scratch. It is a hoplessly flawed entity.
This country needs a cabinet level position for Space Operations, and it needs to decide once and for all do we really want a manned space program, make it a national referendum, have the people vote yes or no. If no, then cancel it completely, if yes give it the realistic funding the it requires.



Quote:

Originally posted by Peace:

NASA has a reservoir of talented people and know-how that should not be dismantled and cast aside. Moreover, NASA is not just manned space flight-- it is also aerospace research and unmanned missions, which, right now, are the gleaming bright spots of our space efforts (two operational Mars rovers and Cassini-- hard to beat that). That aside, your point that America's space efforts, esp. manned space missions, need direction, goals, and funding, is well taken. Since the end of the moon missions manned flight at NASA has been floundering, purposeless and without a sense of direction. Part of the problem is that, as noted by others, NASA's funding has always been a political football. In that respect, I think we agree-- come up with something sensible, comprehensive and attainable with manned flight, or get off the launch pad and let somebody else have a shot.

Oh, bugger! Now I have to wait for someone to wake up!




Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:



Glad we're on Mars again, props to NASA, for doing what it was DESIGNED to do, ( and not teach Muslim nations to feel good about themselves ) and here's to continued success for Curiosity and her team !



Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen
" We're all just folk. " - Mal

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall



Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
...(...[NASA]Budget cuts....)
But plenty and to spare for spy satellites to invade the privacy of, and harrass, americans.

Not so many folk have been payin attention, but the Chinese killed a couple of our "secret" spy satellites over a period of weeks - forgive me, I have to be vague on the timeline to protect a source...

And then later gave our intel folks a couple of strong hints that anything in orbit they felt was a threat or nuisance, wouldn't BE in orbit very long.

The whole issue slid under the notice of most folk, but I am sure NRO was gnashing their teeth about it - me, I wonder about the how, we'd have spotted a missle launch, so I am thinkin HERF, directed EMP, or even guidance system hack/jamming.

Considering how easily the signals from most sats are to decrypt, I strongly suspect the latter.

NASA sucks ass anyway, ten times the money for one hundreth of the effort, as with any Gov sponsored monopoly locked in mutual embrace with the Mil-Industrial Complex.

But gorram it, SOMEBODY build me a spaceship so I can get off this rock before we blow ourselves to hell, ok ?

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it



So are we ever going to put a base on the Moon and Mars?

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Thursday, December 17, 2015 10:10 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


The recent climate deal in Paris inspired me to look back at an old debate I had with Geezer, where we each made predictions about the course of China's CO2 emissions, and the likelihood of it signing up to an effective deal. Here it is - http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57289&p=1


Geezer - "China has a history of promising carbon reductions it can't meet... I don't expect them to do anything different now."

Geezer expresses strong doubt at the idea that China would make 'substantial decreases in emissions' as part of a climate deal.

kpo states reasons why China might sign up to a climate deal with binding targets, and decrease their emissions, or at least slow their growth.

kpo - "China's emissions ARE going to stabilise, just like all other developed countries have. That's a pretty safe prediction. I would say almost certainly the curve will start to bend soon, and that it probably has already."

Geezer - "I see no evidence that China will agree to a treaty with binding emissions targets"

Geezer - "I don't doubt they'll sign a deal if they think they can get targets that don't require them to do much reduction, and that if they sign an agreement that does, they'll break it."

Geezer cites past data to suggest that China's recent dip in CO2 emissions is a blip, and that emissions will go 'right back up', and he challenges kpo's assertion that China's emissions will plateau.

Geezer seems certain that China will increase 'its emissions by 2.45 times in the next seven years' to over 6.6 billion tonnes in 2020.

Geezer - "in 20 years, China's annual emissions could be seven times what they are now, close to 19 billion tonnes. Considering that the total world emissions for 2013 were 9.6 tonnes, Are you okay with this?"

kpo - "Setting emissions targets that see poor countries minimise emissions, while their economies grow, and developed countries cut emissions to offset this growth, is workable, and could produce a sustainable global fall in emissions quite soon."

Geezer - "The deal you're suggesting above, with your determination that China and other developing countries should be allowed major emissions increases, is not going to actually do any good in reducing emissions."

kpo - "Wrong, a climate deal would make global emissions peak and start to fall quite soon."

Geezer - "As noted above, I and others expect that China's emissions per capita will equal those of the U.S. shortly (between 2020 and 2025)"


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, December 18, 2015 10:35 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


and its possible the far left and far-right ain't much different now, more theatre all part of one stage show....if Sanders fan club suffers is the blue party done will the Regressive Leftist movement collapse into a hole? Independents Sanders and Trump rocking the Establishment? No finer representation of the revolution the USA needs – one in which people, not profit, are given primary consideration – than socialist Bernie Sanders whooping billionaire Donald Trump.....although personally I don't vote, I'm not even American....Jim Webb or Rand the son of Ron Paul might be more my guys.....Bernie Sanders began as a grassroots progressive protester back in the 1960’s....Aside from their Brooklyn roots, another thing Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have in common is that they’re both ‘outsiders’. Trump may be rich and Sanders may be a US Senator, but neither man is welcome in America’s plutocratic elite corporate ruling oligarchy.

Sanders is being blocked?

Or is the a one in a million chance? Sanders quits goes Independent....Trump quits the Reds and later runs as a loudmouth VP with SANDERS....possibly the best chance for the USA?
but you also got the whole 'race' thing I mean ethnicity and voting heritage

'White and Asian American millennials have similar partisan profiles, with about a third identifying as Republicans, a third as Democrats, and a third as independents.'
https://reason.com/poll/2014/07/16/millennials-arent-more-democraticth
eyre

Millennials Aren’t More Democratic—They’re Just Less Republican

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Saturday, December 19, 2015 4:38 PM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


I predict that gasoline will not get up to 3$ per gallon agen until most carz on the road are electric. So sumtime around 2030.

The bell iz tolling for the internal combustion fart machinez. The Tesla alredy beats most super carz in 0-60 timez and the battery tek iz improving all the time.

The effect will be cheaper & cheaper gas to compete with electric. Its regularly dipping under 2$ now. Dont be suprized to see it go under 1$ in the next 10 yirz.

After electrics basicly replace gas enjin carz, you will need to special order gas for your antique and it wont be cheap.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.nooalf.com

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Saturday, December 19, 2015 8:13 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Friday, December 11, 2015 5:16 AM
kpo - If I wanted to point out truth being 'manufactured' in Russian media, I wouldn't have to go back more than a couple of weeks.


Well THAT'S a prediction that doesn't look like it'll come true.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, December 21, 2015 5:11 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:

good website http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Jealous?




ouch, verbally eaten alive


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Tuesday, December 22, 2015 12:59 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Friday, December 11, 2015 5:16 AM
kpo - If I wanted to point out truth being 'manufactured' in Russian media, I wouldn't have to go back more than a couple of weeks.


Well THAT'S a prediction that doesn't look like it'll come true.


Dearest kiki. You see those words "If I wanted to"? That means it's not a prediction, unless I want to.

#logic #you'rewelcome

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, December 26, 2015 6:28 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


example only: If I wanted to, I could fly just by mental powers alone.

That's a prediction, exactly like your prediction, which needs to be proved true, or it remains false. Meanwhile, your deadline expired on Christmas. Hope it was merry death for your prediction.
Friday, December 11, 2015 5:16 AM




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Saturday, December 26, 2015 8:58 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

example only: If I wanted to, I could fly just by mental powers alone.

That's a prediction,


Err no, because it's dependent on you wanting to.


Meanwhile:


Signy: "The unanimous UN Security Council resolution on the roadmap to peace, for which the American representative voted in the affirmative, indicates to me that deposing Assad is a dead issue, at least for the USA."


It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, January 7, 2016 10:24 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy: "have you looked at the Baltic Dry Index, the USA participation rate, USA trucking indices, USA manufacturer's orders, and commodity prices lately? They are pointing to a huge - and I mean HUGE - contraction underway. And if you're Albertan, or you live in fracking state where large percentages of state income come from oil, well, it'll suck to be you."

Is this a prediction, or an analysis of the present, or both?? Well here it is, people can make up their minds.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SIGNY: "You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns."

Grozny, Russia, 2000:

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Thursday, January 7, 2016 8:15 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



THGRRI: "As conditions in Russia worsen and Putin's favaroble numbers start to drop look to Putin to send troops into Kazakhstan or Belarus... Likewise, the Moldovan region of Transdniester is fairly ripe for Russian intervention."


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SIGNY: "You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns."

Grozny, Russia, 2000:

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Sunday, January 10, 2016 10:04 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
"For the record I wouldn't rule out a messy Greek default myself, but for different reasons, e.g. Greece's crazy, far-left populist government."

I'm really curious if you can outline how an alternative to default is even possible, irrespective of government.




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.


Anyone see violence, rapes and riots and looting across Europe this Summer??



Sounds like the Police and Border patrol are in for a tough time

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Sunday, January 17, 2016 1:15 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
I could see how an attack by Israel on Iran could come out of the blue and really blow a lot of predictions out of the water



You missed this one



US Navy sailors are captured

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Sunday, January 17, 2016 1:49 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


JAYNZE, you post far too many vids. Sometimes vids simply cannot be summarized, but for a news item (Iran captures US sailors) it's hardly necessary!

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Monday, January 18, 2016 7:34 PM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


The prise uv gas iz dropping even farther than I expected.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/01/18/gas-price-fell-77-cents
-one-michigan-site/78957822
/

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.nooalf.com

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Saturday, January 23, 2016 8:08 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy - "almost every nation on the globe is staring at an economic recession or outright collapse, and most western nations are staring at another potential financial collapse."

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Saturday, January 23, 2016 8:53 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy - "Russia seems to be adopting a different approach: Fortress Russia. Fill the moat, pull up the drawbridge, and wait until the trampling and panic elsewhere subsides. The plan seems to be to become self-sufficient in food, pharmaceutics, autos, and some other necessities and just wait out the disruptions.

The major USA export is money. Literally. But since the USD-denominated debt is something like 6-10 TIMES the world GDP, it's hard to see the USA delaying too much longer the day when those debts come due."

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Sunday, January 24, 2016 8:40 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:







notice you've gone quiet on this whole rioting, refugee, rape thing

lots of vids out there

all kinds of opinion, right, left, tinfoil conspiracy....

Czech President Says Muslim Are Not Civilized Enough For Europe



"Refugees, welcome" spirit wanes after Cologne attacks



MASS RAPE in Cologne Germany : Refugees STILL Welcome!



Eye witness-Muslims attack civilians and police in Cologne, Germany



Kassam Schools



Cologne Riot - Yet another first person account




White War Refugees not Allowed



France Announces Permanent Police State Until IS Militants Defeated



Aftermath of the #Cologne New Years Eve Attacks



It's Their Fault, They Where Sexually Assaulted!













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Monday, January 25, 2016 12:50 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Windowless carz!

Glass iz hevy and making up for the structural penalty uv interupting the surfase addz even more wate. So, with self driving carz bekuming common by 2025, glass will be unesusery. Insted, you will put on a VR vizor if you want to see outside andor there will be hemisferical view screenz.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.nooalf.com

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Monday, January 25, 2016 7:12 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.


Quote:

notice you've gone quiet on this whole rioting, refugee, rape thing

lots of vids out there


Jayneztown STOP spamming the thread with videos.

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Thursday, January 28, 2016 10:33 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
If people don't run from Hillary, their tingly-spidey-sense is broken.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.



with the whole Flint thing will 'water' or lack of or droughts or chemcial pollution, will these be an election issue?

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Monday, February 1, 2016 9:04 PM

JAYNEZTOWN


I predict the Regressive Left debate will start trending, off the charts


http://polsciblogg.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-regressive-left.html

The Regressive Left
We often spend a lot of time debating the ideologies of the Republicans and the Democrats that we forget that there are debates within their own camps. One of such debates in the Democratic camp is centered on the uprising of fundamentalist Islam and how we address this issue in our discourse.
Here is the divide- a majority of liberals are afraid to criticize the doctrine of Islam either because they see the theology of Islam as not the real problem or because they are afraid of the ramifications. This group of liberals have been phrased “the regressive left” by author and neuroscientist Sam Harris whom has been debating this topic since the attacks on 9-11.
They are called the regressive left because these liberals do not stand up for liberal principles. For example, when a terrorist attack occurred at Charlie Hebdo in France, even CNN pundits were asking questions like “did the cartoonists take a joke too far?” To ask this question is moral bankruptcy. As Sam Harris responded, “Cartoonists have died for making cartoons, end of moral analysis.”

---- civi --

The Seven Regressive Sins of Islam Apologetics


1. Deny the problem / blame the messenger

Despite its intellectual laziness, this sin is actually very common, and it is often used as the first cop-out in a discussion, especially by people who know very little about Islam, yet feel the regressive urge to "defend Muslims". When an Islam-related problem is mentioned, when, for example, the catastrophic situation of women throughout the Islamic world is brought up, the problem is simply denied. Either it doesn't exist at all, or it is much smaller and therefore essentially not worth discussing, or it has “nothing to do with Islam”.

And not only is the problem downplayed and ignored. Regressives don't stop there. Instead, they start smearing the person who brought up the problem. They blame the messenger. I find it truly fascinating how often I, as someone on the left, has been called a "right-wing bigot", a "neonazi", a "fascist", a "neocon", and whatever ridiculous labels have been thrown out there. And I am in good company. Geert Wilders, Sam Harris, Bill Maher, or Ayaan Hirsi Ali, to just name a few, are all left-leaning, liberal-minded people who have been smeared by use of all of the above terms. Rather then listen to the arguments these people have to make, it is so much easier to slander and thereby discredit them, and in consequence not to have to worry about anything they say, since the problems they mention are simply denied.

The "blame the messenger" attitude is not limited to individuals. When data, i.e. by surveys or statistics are brought up, many regressives will start questioning the studies. They would instantly use them for their own arguments if they supported their opinion (which, unfortunately for them, they never do when it comes to Islam), but since they don't like the conclusions of the study, the whole study is simply dismissed.

Gad Saad has coined the term "ostrich brigade". Like ostriches, regressives feel uncomfortable having to face certain real-world problems, so they stick their heads in the sand and pretend the problem doesn't exist. The difficulty, of course, is that denying a problem is essentially just as bad as the problem itself. If your leg is on fire, that is a problem. But denying that your leg is on fire, and possibly insulting the bystanders who inform you about the problem, is in effect just as consequential, since it removes the need to do anything about it.


2. Zoom out

If, due to the incoming overwhelming evidence, denying the problem is no longer possible without looking like an utter loon, regressives often resort to the zooming-out strategy. Instead of talking about certain subgroups of Muslims who display horrible behaviour, they will broaden out the issue and direct attention away from the actual group. For example, when talking about Islam and its connection to violence, we hear things like “Religions in general can lead to violence”. In the aftermath of the sexual assault scandal in Europe on New Year's Eve, many voices were heard blaming “men” for this behaviour. “That's just what men do when they get drunk”. Well actually it isn't, at least it wasn't in Germany before the influx a million young Muslim men.

By broadening out the topic the real issue is essentially avoided. Yeah, men are just like that, what can we do... Yeah, religions are bad, oh well... This strategy is not employed in order to talk about or solve problems. It is used to shift the attention away from the real issue, namely Muslims.


3. Zoom in

Unlike zooming out, zooming in narrows down the problem to make it seem more overseeable. When talking about the global phenomenon of Islamism and jihadism, for example, regressives will bring up the Islamic State. Even for most regressives IS is not defensible, so they try to use it to their advantage and to direct criticism away from Islam. They then can say things like that only a tiny fraction of the Muslim world support IS, so we shouldn't be so concerned. Ironically, it has been shown that this is not even true, and that support for IS actually numbers in the hundreds of millions. But even if this were not the case, what regressives like to ignore is that our concern isn't limited to IS. We are concerned about Islamism on a global scale. There are dozens of other significant Islamist and jihadist groups causing mayhem and destruction at this very moment, like Boko Haram, Al-Shaabab, Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Taliban, to just name a few of the more violent ones. And of course we are concerned about far more in regard to Islam than just Islamism.


4. Create false conflation

Another popular deflection strategy is the attempt to lessen the problems of Islam by creating false conflations. A very common instance among Americans is the conflation of Islam with Christianity. For example, when the divisive and violent verses of the Koran are mentioned and criticised as an explanation for Muslim behaviour, regressives will point to the Bible and how it contains hideous passages too. This is of course entirely irrelevant and pathetic, but they will state it with a feeling of pride, as if they were being extremely nuanced (nuance, by the way, is one of the favourite words of regressives).

But it gets even more silly. Since no other group of people is currently committing atrocious acts even remotely on the same scale as Muslims, regressives compare the acts of Muslims today to what other groups did in the past. Often they will go back centuries! I'm sure you all have had the experience of wanting to discuss the perils of jihadism we are witnessing right now, only to be reminded of how terrible the crusades were 800 years ago.

Another fun false conflation which comes up frequently is the abortion clinic bombings. “See”, regressives say in response to the terror charts which show that Muslims are responsible for 98% of terror-related deaths around the globe, “Christians commit acts of terror too!” I believe that nine abortion doctors have been killed by Christians. Not last week, not last year. No, in the history of the United States. On a good morning that many are killed by Muslims before breakfast.


5. The "all-argument"

Personally this is my favourite piece of regressive Islam apologetics. It is the pinnacle of silliness, yet it comes up at a frequency which is breath-taking. When criticising anything to do with Islam, the response is “wait, are you saying that all Muslims are __________ . Although nobody has ever said that all Muslims are to blame for anything, the response is heard time and time again. It is the ultimate strawman.

Some examples:
“There are many verses in the Koran that incite violence.” - “Are you saying that all Muslims are violent?”
“Islamic terror occurs on a day to day basis.” - “But not all Muslims are terrorists. Most Muslims are peaceful people.”
“Muslims have problematic views when it comes to women.” - “All Muslims?”

It is shocking that it must even be said, but no, we don't mean all Muslims. We are not talking about about your friendly, secular, law-abiding Muslim neighbour. We are not talking about Maajid Nawaz. Or the 2-year-old son of a Muslim father. Or the 84-year-old grandma. We are refering to a demographic. The whole reason we bring up surveys and statistics is to determine the pervasiveness of certain beliefs in a given sample of Muslims.

In a different context such an evasion manoeuvre would be unthinkable. Imagine that you live in Australia. You turn on the news and hear about several attacks on surfers by sharks who have eaten them up or bitten off their legs. The news reporter's voice shakes in light of this dreadful news, as he turns to his studio guest, a shark expert, and asks him what we should do against this problem. The guest replies, “What has happened is truly horrible. Our sympathy lies with the victims and we all condemn these shark attacks. But we must be careful not to blame all sharks for these attacks. Most sharks are peaceful creatures that don't attacks humans. We shouldn't paint sharks with a broad brush. These specific sharks might have attacked surfers, but we can't draw any conclusions about the rest of the shark population from their behaviour.” I assume you would find this bizarrely irritating. And yet it is the same argument that is brought up to excuse Muslim attitudes and behaviour constantly.


6. Blame America, Israel, or “the West”

This too is a very common deflection attempt among regressives. It fits into the regressive narrative perfectly, that says that white heterosexual Western men are to blame for everything bad that happens in the world. According to this narrative, all the problems we see throughout the Islamic world are of our own making. IS? America's fault for invading Iraq. Islamic terrorism? A response to Western foreign policy. Palestinians stabbing Israeli civilians? Israel's “occupation” is to blame. Fundamentalist Islam and Islamism are generally on the rise? Of course, since “the West” has prevented the rise of stable societies. Muslims living in Europe are poorly integrated, have formed parallel societies, and have joined IS by the thousands? Blame the racist European cultures and their failure to do more for Muslims.

Now, obviously Western countries have made mistakes in the past. That is not the point. The point is that the argument deprives Muslims of any agency for their actions and they are viewed as helpless peons whose behaviour is solely determined by the West. Regressives don't tend to travel very much, let alone into Muslim-majority countries. They only experience their own culture, and only absorb their own news and politics. They see the world through the prism of their country and their culture. This causes them to think that everything is about the West, about them. It is actually a very narcissistic notion. Even when Islamists go on ad nauseum how they are doing what they do in the name of Islam, regressives will still often point to the West. It's almost like they can't stand the thought of the world not revolving around them.


7. Change the topic

Finally – and this is perhaps the most stunning renunciation of intellectual honesty –, when regressives feel uncomfortable about talking about Islam, they may simply change the topic. All the previous sins incorporate this strategy to some degree, since they are used to deflect from the real issue and muddy the waters. But the seventh sin is about changing the topic entirely, to a completely different issue. Instead of addressing concerning poll results, for example, they will start talking about anti-Muslim sentiment, and how it is growing in the West. Well, sure, that's a problem. Perhaps we can talk about it some day, ask for the reasons and discuss what we can do about it. But that is a separate conversation and has nothing to do with what we were talking about. Other popular topics which regressives switch to are racism or the political right. They don't want to talk about uncomfortable topics. They want to talk about their topics. The ones where they feel cozy and content.

A regressive on his own usually can't get away with such conversational sabotage. But when they come in hordes, and one of them changes the topic, the others will seize the chance and jump in, which may totally derail the discussion. Countless conversations have been destroyed through means of this tactic. So keep on the look-out!

http://mrozatheist.blogspot.com/2015/11/when-do-we-talk-about-paris.ht
ml


When *do* we talk about Paris?
We see it regularly in the US in the aftermath of a mass gun shooting...'now's not the time' or the more graphic 'not while the bodies are still warm'.

Of course people are sensitive, emotions are heightened. The bodies *are* still warm and for thousands, if not millions, the tears are still flowing.

So we hear cries of not speaking about it, because that would be distasteful, don't you know?

By Faisal Saeed Al Mutar:

It must be incredibly frustrating as an Islamic terrorist not to have your views and motives taken seriously by the societies you terrorize, even after you have explicitly and repeatedly stated them. Even worse, those on the regressive left, in their endless capacity for masochism and self-loathing, have attempted to shift blame inwardly on themselves, denying the terrorists even the satisfaction of claiming responsibility.

It's like a bad Monty Python sketch:

"We did this because our holy texts exhort us to to do it."

"No you didn't."

"Wait, what? Yes we did..."

"No, this has nothing to do with religion. You guys are just using religion as a front for social and geopolitical reasons."

"WHAT!? Did you even read our official statement? We give explicit Quranic justification. This is jihad, a holy crusade against pagans, blasphemers, and disbelievers."

"No, this is definitely not a Muslim thing. You guys are not true Muslims, and you defame a great religion by saying so."

"Huh!? Who are you to tell us we're not true Muslims!? Islam is literally at the core of everything we do, and we have implemented the truest most literal and honest interpretation of its founding texts. It is our very reason for being."

"Nope. We created you. We installed a social and economic system that alienates and disenfranchises you, and that's why you did this. We're sorry."

"What? Why are you apologizing? We just slaughtered you mercilessly in the streets. We targeted unwitting civilians - disenfranchisement doesn't even enter into it!"

"Listen, it's our fault. We don't blame you for feeling unwelcome and lashing out."

"Seriously, stop taking credit for this! We worked really hard to pull this off, and we're not going to let you take it away from us."

"No, we nourished your extremism. We accept full blame."

"OMG, how many people do we have to kill around here to finally get our message across?"

(post here: https://www.facebook.com/faisalsalmutar/posts/906729506085781?fref=nf)

http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-regressive-
lefts-obsession-with-race.html


The Regressive Left’s Obsession with Race
Just look at this article here in the UK Independent by Edward Siddons, which concerns the recent sexual assaults in Germany.

If we read it carefully we can see before our eyes an outstanding fault of the modern left: the bizarre conflation of culture with race.

First, Siddons points out that some people on the far right are complaining that maybe the cultural attitudes of the attackers might have something to do with their crimes.

But then Siddons immediately implies that this means that such people are therefore focusing on the attackers’ race, with the implication that they must all be racists. What?!

In looking at the news coverage and personalities raising issues about the events in the media over the Cologne attacks and even on the populist right, I see nobody screaming about the race of the attackers and saying that they committed the crimes because it is in their genes. No doubt some exist on the really far right, but clearly these people do not dominate the conversation.

Instead, there are questions about whether some of the regressive cultural ideas in the parts of the world from which the attackers came might have something to do with their crimes. This is clearly totally different from their racial origin: culture is not race.


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Tuesday, March 8, 2016 10:39 AM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Signy - "Erdogan's control over Turkey... [is] falling apart."


2016 elections predictions thread - http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=60411

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Wednesday, March 9, 2016 4:28 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



Reaverfan on Bernie Sanders - "I think he'll rout Hillary and become our next president"

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Wednesday, March 9, 2016 4:56 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Reaverfan on Bernie Sanders - "I think he'll rout Hillary and become our next president"



First off. The red type is hard to read. Secondly, wow I don't think reaverfan really understands that from here on out Sanders ( as much as I like him ) is about to lose the nomination to Hillary in short order. The states he was going to win are behind him now.

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Friday, March 11, 2016 4:49 PM

REAVERFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Reaverfan on Bernie Sanders - "I think he'll rout Hillary and become our next president"



First off. The red type is hard to read. Secondly, wow I don't think reaverfan really understands that from here on out Sanders ( as much as I like him ) is about to lose the nomination to Hillary in short order. The states he was going to win are behind him now.

Actually, all the southern states are done voting. We're going into purple and blue states, which are a lot more like Michigan, where he enjoyed an unprecedented, historic upset.

If the folks who like him turn out to vote, he will win.

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Friday, March 11, 2016 5:21 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan:
Quote:

Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Reaverfan on Bernie Sanders - "I think he'll rout Hillary and become our next president"



First off. The red type is hard to read. Secondly, wow I don't think reaverfan really understands that from here on out Sanders ( as much as I like him ) is about to lose the nomination to Hillary in short order. The states he was going to win are behind him now.

Actually, all the southern states are done voting. We're going into purple and blue states, which are a lot more like Michigan, where he enjoyed an unprecedented, historic upset.

If the folks who like him turn out to vote, he will win.



I'll just say there are some big states coming into play and that is going to end any chance he never really had. Also, I love the fact that Hillary now has to deal with outsourcing in a way she didn't before Bernie showed up.

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Thursday, March 17, 2016 7:49 PM

KPO

Anti-Russia before it was cool.



1kiki - "If Trump was president, he'd have congressional opposition from BOTH the democrats AND the republicans.

He would literally not be able to get anything done. The idea of how dysfunctional his term would be is funny! "

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