REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Hollande the start of a progressive insurrection in Europe?

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Monday, May 7, 2012 12:54
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1443
PAGE 1 of 1

Friday, May 4, 2012 8:57 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


A good article - though the guy is not elected yet:

Quote:



Six days to go in France. Crude antipathy seems to be the main reason French voters are likely to throw out their president. Nicolas Sarkozy does not look like a president, talk like a president, or act like a president. But there is a better reason why he deserves to be ejected. He won the 2007 campaign with a promise of ambitious economic reforms. He was one of the few European politicians with a mandate for big changes. He flunked it for a reason that already became apparent during the 2007 campaign: he was hyperactive. Reforms are for boring politicians.

We are still in the campaign, and stuff can happen in six days. But Mr Hollande is so far ahead in the polls – and has been for a long time – that it is hard to see how Mr Sarkozy can still pull off a surprise. It will take a lot more than a convincing performance on Wednesday in the scheduled television debate.

The two most important aspects of a Hollande presidency would be its impact on the French economy and its impact on the eurozone. On the first, I consider the effect broadly neutral. On the second, I think it would be significantly positive.

Mr Sarkozy’s two greatest failures as a reformer are his failure to implement a single contract for all French labour, and to scale back public expenditure. Mr Hollande is not promising structural reform either. Europe’s experience is that such changes are more likely to be delivered by the left than the right, and usually under stress. France will ultimately adopt those reforms, no matter who is president. Mr Hollande should, however, resist the pressure from the left to raise the minimum wage and to reverse the increases in the pension age.

What about Mr Hollande’s threat of a marginal 75 per cent tax rate on incomes over €1m? It is as politically astute as it is economically inconsequential. A few more rock stars may move from Paris to Geneva or Brussels. Some bankers on high bonuses may move to London. Some chief executives will pay the tax. But frankly, who cares? It would be hard to make the claim these days that France would lose any talent here. Most entrepreneurs will not be affected, as they do not amass their wealth in the form of earned income, let alone bonuses.

The main reason why I look forward to a Hollande presidency is for its impact on Europe. At present, all the large, and many of the small, eurozone countries are governed by centre-right governments. Angela Merkel is their undisputed queen. Mr Hollande is not going to be a comfortable partner. On some issues, such as the fiscal pact, he will challenge her outright.

I would welcome a Hollande presidency on the grounds that it would introduce a much needed shift in the toxic narrative about the eurozone crisis and its resolution. According to this narrative, the crisis was caused by fiscal irresponsibility. Its prescription is austerity and economic reforms. The tool to achieve the former is the fiscal pact, which Mr Hollande has said he will not sign unless it is complemented by policies to boost economic growth.

I wish that Mr Hollande would go further because austerity will snare countries in a low-growth trap. No set of structural policies will change this. I understand the political reason why he does not want to go further. He does not want his presidency to start with an existential fight with Germany – and the dreaded prospect of another panic attack by global investors.

France isn’t the only country to watch, though. In the Netherlands the centre-right minority government collapsed after Geert Wilders, the leader of the populist Freedom Party, decided not to support its austerity programme. The Dutch government last week managed to strike a deal with a number of opposition parties. The Netherlands will now embark on a fairly brutal fiscal adjustment in the middle of a recession. Value added tax will increase to 21 per cent, depressing consumption. Health and education spending will be cut.

The big question is how the Dutch electorate will react to this set of policies when they go the polls in September. My guess is that we will see a surge of support for both the left and the right – which are united in their rejection of these policies. Mr Wilders, who has previously focused on immigration, has now adopted the eurozone as his favourite subject through which to bash foreigners. The rise of political extremism in Europe is in part the consequence of stubbornness and stupidity among centrist elites.

It is a bit risky to judge someone before he is even elected. But I suspect Mr Hollande is the beginning of a progressive insurrection.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c400be82-9063-11e1-8adc-00144feab49a.html#ax
zz1tvVMphhm

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 6, 2012 1:42 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Hollande is in.

Bump for new relevance.

It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 6, 2012 3:58 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Gonna be interesting to see how it goes.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 3:18 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Yup, gonna be interesting. Seems the people in Europe aren't too happy with the severity measures...if France starts doing better with a more MODERATE approach (I'm not into their pendulum swinging too far left...), will it make any difference here? Will the fact that those who implemented the harsh measures got tossed out of office make a dent in our righties? We'll see...



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 5:40 AM

PIZMOBEACH

... fully loaded, safety off...


Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Yup, gonna be interesting. Seems the people in Europe aren't too happy with the severity measures...if France starts doing better with a more MODERATE approach (I'm not into their pendulum swinging too far left...), will it make any difference here? Will the fact that those who implemented the harsh measures got tossed out of office make a dent in our righties? We'll see...




Count me in as a very interested spectator too. Listening to Paul Krugman the other day on Charlie Rose and he suggested that austerity does not work and is one of the reasons Europe is having issues and we're not and we shouldn't pursue that path.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12332

I like Krugman because (unlike Ryan) I don't think any one party likes him all that much.

Scifi movie music + Firefly dialogue clips, 24 hours a day - http://www.scifiradio.com

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 7:00 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Greece has fractured politically. The two major parties which (between the two of them) used to account for 85% of the vote now account for something less than 50%... a major slap in the face to both mainstream parties. Some of the parties are virulently proto-fascist, and some are equally to the left. (Yes, I know, for political troglodytes who don't know history, that particular comparison doesn't make sense since you're used to lumping "everyone else" into a socialist-communist-fascist-conspiracy).

There is an (anti-German) Greek joke I heard on the radio yesterday. Angela Merkel is going through the airport in Athens, and she's at Customs where they ask her
Name, please?
Angela Merkel
Occupation?
No, not today, I'm just on a vacation


Well, anyway...


Unlike other major EU nations, the Greek government really does deserve repudiation. When the large private EU banks went on a lending spree, the Greek government was the only one which borrowed money to directly fund deficit spending. (To reiterate: other nations' loans went to non-governmental borrowers.) No matter that German banks were looking for improbable loans and that Goldman Sachs colluded with the Greek government to hide the budget-busting debt which flouted EU fiscal rules, the Greek government is to blame. As the cause of their own problem, the Greek government can be a big part of the solution- among other things, to start cracking down on tax cheats.


But for anyone who's paying attention, in some aspects this look like the start of WWII. And where did that come from? Well, it came in part from the consequences of the Great Depression, which was a world-wide phenomenon, and in part from war reparations imposed on Germany.... which look much like the austerity imposed on the EU by their commercial banks.

"Under extreme circumstances, the political center cannot hold."

-------------------------------------------
So, to Hollande. What can he do, and what reactions will he encounter?

Let's assume that Holland imposes high tax on "the wealthy" (however defined). Because EU taxes do not follow citizens internationally, French citizens will simply xfer their wealth to nearby nations- eg Luxemburg or Switzerland. In order to block off this particular capital flight, Hollande will have to change French tax law if he wants to recoup that money.

S&P has already downgraded French government bonds in anticipation of an Hollande win. Likely, they will downgrade bonds further (on political- not fiscal- considerations), making French government borrowing more expensive. Also, banks in general will "punish" France for going off the reservation. In other words, France will likely be the target of a soft bank boycott. Stocks will fall and money will become even tighter.

Since banks loans (funny-money) make up roughly 90% of circulating capital, a partial bank boycott could be devastating to the REAL economy. Honestly, if the situation gets this extreme, the only thing France can do would be to make common cause with other "debtor nations" of the EU (or the world) against the banks, issue their own currency and/or create such stringent banking rules that their banks are no longer private institution, and repudiate the ECB/EU. Leaving private investors holding the bag.

So there is something of a standoff between the international private banks (and the IMF, which imposes private bank rules) and France. How far do the banks want to push the French government, and how much of a haircut are their investors willing to take? This could wind up like Allende's Chile (with Msr Hollande being the target of an international economic boycott and eventual assassination) or with France dragging EU/ECB bank policy away from austerity. Close call.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 7:14 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by pizmobeach:
Quote:

Originally posted by Niki2:
Yup, gonna be interesting. Seems the people in Europe aren't too happy with the severity measures...if France starts doing better with a more MODERATE approach (I'm not into their pendulum swinging too far left...), will it make any difference here? Will the fact that those who implemented the harsh measures got tossed out of office make a dent in our righties? We'll see...




Count me in as a very interested spectator too. Listening to Paul Krugman the other day on Charlie Rose and he suggested that austerity does not work and is one of the reasons Europe is having issues and we're not and we shouldn't pursue that path.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12332

I like Krugman because (unlike Ryan) I don't think any one party likes him all that much.




Krugman's not merely *suggesting* that it doesn't work - he's shouting it from the rooftops, and has been since before the stimulus package was passed. And he's right, of course.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 7:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The problem is that the solution for government is neither to borrow more from private banks nor to impose austerity. The only way to avoid both bear traps is for the government to be able to control the amount of currency in circulation and to be able to direct capital distribution. Those factors drive the real economy of jobs, production and consumption, and in the end that is the only economy that matters to real people.

Assuming that you read news articles about the French and Greek election results, as an exercise in propaganda detection, please pay CLOSE ATTENTION to how many times "investors" or "private investors" are specifically mentioned. If you notice how many times those words are sprinkled through the text... and how many times you gloss over them... in context you will see they are the driving force behind "austerity".

Permit me to issue and control the money of the nation and I care not who makes its laws.
-Mayer Amsched Rothchild

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 8:33 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!


The royal Nazi Bilderberg Group put their Commie stooge in charge of the 2012 French Revolution.

Off with their heads!

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 7, 2012 12:54 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

Originally posted by PIRATENEWS:
Off with their heads!


I am not exactly opposed to that notion - again, I say we oughta clone Robespierre...

Also, regarding the Rothschildes - shouldn't you be out dancing on a grave about now ?
While they tried to cover it up, one of em recently capped it, and I figured you'd be crowing about it - not like they ain't got plenty more, but one less is one less, right ?

-Frem

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Thu, March 28, 2024 05:27 - 6154 posts
In the garden, and RAIN!!! (2)
Thu, March 28, 2024 02:07 - 3408 posts
Russian losses in Ukraine
Wed, March 27, 2024 23:21 - 987 posts
Elections; 2024
Wed, March 27, 2024 22:19 - 2069 posts
human actions, global climate change, global human solutions
Wed, March 27, 2024 15:03 - 824 posts
NBC News: Behind the scenes, Biden has grown angry and anxious about re-election effort
Wed, March 27, 2024 14:58 - 2 posts
BUILD BACK BETTER!
Wed, March 27, 2024 14:45 - 5 posts
RFK Jr. Destroys His Candidacy With VP Pick?
Wed, March 27, 2024 11:59 - 16 posts
Russia says 60 dead, 145 injured in concert hall raid; Islamic State group claims responsibility
Wed, March 27, 2024 10:57 - 49 posts
Ha. Haha! HAHA! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!!!
Tue, March 26, 2024 21:26 - 1 posts
You can't take the sky from me, a tribute to Firefly
Tue, March 26, 2024 16:26 - 293 posts
Tucker Carlson
Tue, March 26, 2024 16:24 - 132 posts

FFF.NET SOCIAL