REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Gun discussion do-over?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Monday, January 21, 2013 11:57
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Monday, December 24, 2012 2:43 PM

DREAMTROVE


Frem,

Only saying this because i think its true: theres a 2a fantasy that someone with a concealed weapon would have stopped sandy hook. I doubt it. It just wouldnt be common enough. Here's what I see instead: someone with a concealed weapon would be the next sandy hook, and you'd see dozens of times as many of them. The reason is that human judgment on an individual level is poor.

I agree that a gun ban or a paranoid police state is probably not the answer, i see the next sandy hook coming quuickly if each school has an armed guard or police officer. The armed guardian can snap, or someone can take their gun, etc.

I think a solution requires more technology. There are a lot of erratic patterns here that should show up in some information service, which should be publically available, so individual citizens can react without the need for authority.

So far to date, every single one of these stories has involved the massive buying of far more guns than needed.
Next, we usually have a combination of psychotropic drug use, combat video games and methamphetamine abuse.
We have a person firing many shots, and firing them in a place unlikely to be defensive.
If all the data were fed into a computer, the likelihood of a psycho could be spit out pretty accurately by a machine. If that information were publically available, a gun toting status update could say "highly unstable person headed towards your kindergarten carrying an AR 15 knockoff, has just killed own mother," which might be useful information to the people in the bulding.

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Monday, December 24, 2012 6:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I'm not sure what the purpose of this thread is anymore. I thought it was to propose concrete measures that could be taken to reduce the loss of human life due to firearms.
Tony, you're absolutely correct. That is the general idea. But as far as I'm concerned, I really DON'T have a notion what is causing our very high gun death (and violent crime in general). I'm very much in the middle of a lot of things... We own a gun (a short-barreled shotgun) I value it's utility for home self-defense. I DO understand that our laws -which favor the rich and powerful- are enforced by unrestrained armaments overseas (missiles, tanks, rockets, bombs, grenades, mortars and "military assault" weapons) and by restrained arms (tasers, firearms of various sorts, flash-bangs, teargas) at home. So I "get" the 2A end of the argument on oppressive government. OTOH, I fail to see how a bunch of unorganized civilians will ever be anything than lone gunmen or small paranoid groups. I know that many nations have much higher gun prevalence than we do. OTOH, there are also nations (I believe we call them "failed states") which are complete clusterfucks of personal arms violence. So I'm trying to sort out... for myself, if nothing else... what it is about OUR culture that causes this, and what to do about it.
Quote:

Frem has put forth his proposals and backed them with what data is available, which is limited because aspects of the idea are new.

My proposals are presumably void because there is no data available for it.

Your proposals...

What are your proposals?

Right now, I'm data-gathering.

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Monday, December 24, 2012 9:33 PM

RIONAEIRE

Beir bua agus beannacht


Magon's that is a good bit about increased violence against parents. I would like to point out that my grandfather's older brother (the one I think had antisocial personality disorder, see sociopath thread) used to beat up their dad, their dad was physically small and so as soon as he got big enough he'd harm him. So its not new, but it is getting more common, and I think Magons' list is viable reasoning.

Signe I always want to talk to you in more detail but I can't because I can't pm you. Oh well.

I'm generally opposed to sending one's children away to live elsewhere, but in the case of the mother's blog I'd say that for safety's sake that son needs to go to an establishment of some sort for a while, or at least to a household without littler siblings, until he gets stable and can behave himself. Those little siblings have to be kept safe and so does the mom for that matter. It would only be temporary until things can be improved.

"A completely coherant River means writers don't deliver" KatTaya

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Tuesday, December 25, 2012 6:53 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


But I can PM you, and once we have an email exchange going, there should be no problem!

Check your PM box.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:11 AM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Reports in the US are exaggerated now because of the *need* to take reports seriously- many now include merely loud arguments.



Well I welcome changes in the laws that make police take family violence seriously. Because it is serious and it is prevalent. Very prevalent. And too often in the past it has been dismissed and not taken seriously. Too many people, often women and children have suffered.


Quote:

As expected IMO, so many parents deserve a kick in the teeth now & then. Don't want kids, don't have them- it's a coward's way out to take it out on the kids. And then (irony) expect quiet compliant scapegoats.



Did you read the link? This is not about retalitory violence, but children who use violence against their parents as a form of power. It's quite an interesting subject, but frankly you seem to be just dismissing anything I write.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012 5:02 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Magonsdaughter:
you seem to be just dismissing anything I write.



Sorry MD, I grew up in a household where the head of the house was physically abusive, and when I turned 14, I confronted my father & forced him to stop hitting my Mom, so my views on the matter come from a very specific place that probably means I'm not too useful in such a discussion- so I'll read more than post here now.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012 7:43 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Haven't read this whole thread, because despite being called a "do-over", it appears to me to be just another one of the myriad gun threads we've got going currently, with the same arguments and the same idiocy as all the others. I just thought you might find this interesting, Magons:
Quote:

Almost two weeks after a shooting spree stunned Australia in 1996, leaving 35 people dead at the Port Arthur tourist spot in Tasmania, the government issued sweeping reforms of the country’s gun laws.

There hasn’t been a mass shooting since.

Now, after the recent shooting at a Connecticut elementary school, Australia’s National Firearm Agreement (NFA), which saw hundreds of thousands of automatic and semi-automatic weapons bought back then destroyed, is being examined as a possible example for the US.

Australians have been following the Connecticut tragedy closely, and many say the US solution lies in following Australia’s path, or at least reforming current laws.

Just 12 days after the 1996 shooting in Port Arthur, then-Prime Minister John Howard – a conservative who had just been elected with the help of gun owners – pushed through not only new gun control laws, but also the most ambitious gun buyback program Australia had ever seen. Some 650,000 automatic and semi-automatic rifles were handed in and destroyed under the program.

Though gun-related deaths did not suddenly end in Australia, gun-related homicides dropped 59 percent between 1995 and 2006, with no corresponding increase in non-firearm-related homicides. Suicides by gun plummeted by 65 percent, and robberies at gunpoint also dropped significantly. Many said there was a close correlation between the sharp declines and the buyback program.

A paper for the American Law and Economics Review by Andrew Leigh of the Australian National University and Christine Neill of the Wilfrid Laurier University reports that the buyback led to a drop in the ?rearm suicide rates of almost 80 percent, "with no significant e?ect on non-?rearm death rates. The e?ect on ?rearm homicides is of similar magnitude but is less precise.”

Perhaps the most convincing statistic for many, though, is that in the decade before the Port Arthur massacre, there were 11 mass shootings in the country. Since the new law, there hasn’t been one shooting spree.

In the wake of the shooting, polls indicated that up to 85 percent of Australians supported the measures taken by the government.

In the wake of the Newtown shooting, several Australian politicians are now suggesting that the US adopt Australia’s gun laws. “I implore you to look at our experience,” Labor Member of Parliament Kelvin Thomson wrote in an open letter to US Congress that he also posted on his official website. “As the number of guns in Australia reduced, so too did gun violence. It is simply not true that owning a gun makes you safer.”

“There have been always been great differences between the number of weapons that Australians and Americans own – that is precisely why there are so many more deaths, on a per capita basis, in the United States. It is also true that there are differences in the way Americans and Australians view weapons – nevertheless … our experience is relevant and potentially informative – we had massacres, we acted, we no longer have massacres.” More at http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/1224/Could-the-US-lea
rn-from-Australia-s-gun-control-laws



Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Thursday, December 27, 2012 12:31 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Quote:

Originally posted by Magonsdaughter:
you seem to be just dismissing anything I write.



Sorry MD, I grew up in a household where the head of the house was physically abusive, and when I turned 14, I confronted my father & forced him to stop hitting my Mom, so my views on the matter come from a very specific place that probably means I'm not too useful in such a discussion- so I'll read more than post here now.



Sorry to hear that Chris. Know friends who had similiar situations.

I was in an abusive relationship with someone in my 20's. He was very canny about the law and knew that police were reluctant to intervene in 'domestic disputes' as they were then called, which gave him permission to act how his did legally. I got caught up in a lot of victim blaming, as victims so often do, because somehow it was all my fault that he hit me.

That's why I am happy that laws have changed and that police have to intervene now. And why I am also concerned when young people choose to use violence as a solution in their relationships. Not the same thing as defensive violence, which is not part of the study that I cited.

Niki - Thanks for posting that article. I guess that most Australians find the US attitude to guns perplexing, and in the wake of the current shooting, disturbing.

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Friday, December 28, 2012 5:54 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Don't hold your breath, Brenda. Our culture is so soaked in gun obsession, and our Republican legislators are so in the pockets of the gun lobby, gun manufacturers and NRA (all of which are really one and the same), that nothing will be done. It's pretty much a guarantee, sadly. Teachers are already arming themselves and asking for training, so the NRA's stupid "suggestion" will win out in the end.

I apologize for our cultural madness seeping up there; many of us wish we could do something to at LEAST keep them out of our neighbors to the North and South, but we're in a teeeeeny minority, unfortunately, and have little if any power.

Tit for tat got us where we are today. If we want to be grownups, we need to resist the ugliness. If we each did, this would be a better reflection on Firefly and a more welcome place. I will try.

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Friday, December 28, 2012 6:03 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


FWIW... I'm going to drop out of the discussion for now. I found some extremely useful data which will need some time to sort out. Also, for the heck of it I looked up Germany's gun laws (which I posted on p9 of the GUNS, GUNS, GUNS thread)... they're far tougher than ours. But their whole social milieu is different; this is just an example of why international comparisons are near-impossible (as I said before). So I'm restricting my considerations to within the borders of the USA, unless there is some very direct and clear comparison (and I don't expect many to come up).

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Sunday, January 20, 2013 9:16 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I have been wondering about the dearth of solid data about gun violence and gun deaths. It seems every nation has better stats than us. WE can't even seem to keep track of how many insane people use guns to kill people!

It turns out, there is a reason why. I emailed this article to myself a few days ago under the subject line...

NRA Kills Gun Death Studies

Quote:

The CDC isn't allowed to pursue many kinds of gun research due to the lobbying strength of the National Rifle Association. As a result of the National Rifle Association's lobbying efforts, governmental research into gun mortality has shrunk by 96 percent since the mid-1990s, according to Reuters....The current law reads: “None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-nra-kills-gun-violence-research-201
3-1


Republicans have turned into out-and-out deniers of facts of ANY sort.

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Monday, January 21, 2013 12:27 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I have been wondering about the dearth of solid data about gun violence and gun deaths. It seems every nation has better stats than us. WE can't even seem to keep track of how many insane people use guns to kill people!


Alas that problem isn't limited to either side of the issue, the amount of distortion and misrepresentation is apalling, and one of my pet peeves is considering a perp shot dead in the commission of a violent felony to be "a victim of gun violence", this is disingenious at best.

On the other hand, I am extremely skeptical of Lott, Kleck and Gertz as well, some of their claims don't hold up any better.

I did find one piece you might find interesting, but holy-hell did I have to dig for it - at this point due to the immense flood of propaganda from both "sides", most of it blatantly false, I am not sure one COULD find an answer in all that mess.

But anyhows, here's as close as I could find to a scientific perspective.
Excerpted from the Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy.
(PDF reader required, I reccommend Sumatra)
www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jlpp/Vol30_No2_KatesMauseronline.pdf

Fairly informative, and quite well sourced, with proper crosschecks.

-Frem

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Monday, January 21, 2013 7:45 AM

AGENTROUKA


Very interesting study, Frem!

It does a good job of examining the very broad notion that the number of guns directly influences the number of murders/suicides. I found that part very convincing, though that wasn't so hard since I already think economic and social circumstances more heavily influence violence in society.

I am very curious, though, since they heavily compare European countries with high gun ownership and the US, whether there is any significant difference in the types of guns owned.

Some of the tables in the study suggest that many European countries with relatively high gun ownership still have a relatively low percentage of handgun ownership vs. what I imagine to be different kinds of guns perhaps more suited to hunting or other uses not specifically related to self-defense. Not that hunting weapons couldn't be used for murder, but I have a suspicion that there might be a difference in "gun culture", as in the status of guns and their general purpose. If such a difference exists, the sole comparison of gun ownership numbers in total without differentiating might be too superficial to be truly meaningful. I don't know if it does, though, so... ignorant me.


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Monday, January 21, 2013 10:36 AM

FREMDFIRMA



Well no comparison can be truly accurate cause of social and cultural factors, indeed.

My opinion on it, specifically regarding scandanavian nations and why they've less of a problem with such things is from a whole different aspect though - ain't the weapons themselves nor their availability, it is the degree of sanity within their society.

Some time ago, after WWII, those nations had a sort of enlightenment about the way they raised/treated their children, this was aided in large part by the work of Alice Miller, and a combination of cultural traits such as stronger personal bonds (possible residue of clan/tribe mentality) and a view of avarice/ambition as more flaw than asset, and these things combined into a social drive towards empathy which has benefitted their societies.
Not just on a human level either - their research into autism and related disorders is about twenty YEARS ahead of ours, although we're finally closing the gap - but in understanding what makes humans.... well, HUMAN, or at least humane.
Throw in the focus on restorative, rather than retributive, justice, and you have the hallmarks of a much saner society.

So in my opinion the problem with America isn't gun culture, or the availability and ubiquity of them - it's the fact that from any rational perspective we're bloody fuckin insane, on a national and social scale, and THAT isn't something removing weapons from the equation is gonna fix.
In fact it'd make it worse, cause even trying provokes a "backed into a corner" mindset, especially amongst people who've been seriously dependent on weapons for their own safety currently or at some point in their past, along with not having a whit of effect on a well armed criminal element, thus shifting the balance of power further in their favor.

I was driving a cab in Flint when the city went right-to-carry, and I serviced the bad part of town because being initially from the deep dark ghettos of Baltimore I could forge associations there which prevented me from being attacked or robbed since someone considering it would get stomped by the rest, especially as I was forgiving about being a little short on cash and was about the only driver who'd pick up there.
Ergo, I got word-on-the-street at point blank range - in fact I also kept tabs on local sex offenders on supervised release or parole cause being that close to the street allowed me to keep an eye and ear on them so they freakin behaved themselves.
Anyways, the UNIVERSAL reaction of the career crooks was to jump ship and head for Wisconsin or Chicago, where thanks to regulations and bans, they didn't have to face the risk of getting a cap busted in their ass while plying their trade.

In fact, up to that point Flint Michigan *HAD* been damn near murder capitol of the county, and thereafter the crime rate nosedived SO hard that the police had to invent reasons to keep such a large force, leading to that dumbass baggy pants law and so forth.
Mind you, crime didn't dissappear, it dropped across the board initially, and then property crime climbed a bit a while later - but violent person-to-person crime swandived and STAYED THERE.

The causes of all this, none of em have much to *DO* with weapons, they're all social and psychological factors, which is why trying to slap a gun-ban-bandaid on it never works, it's addressing a mere symptom rather than a root cause.

-Frem

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Monday, January 21, 2013 11:57 AM

AGENTROUKA


Frem,

I very much agree with that.

It's part of the reason why these comparative studies, while superficially useful in terms of absolute correlation between guns/crime, seem ultimately flawed to me. They do not incorporate the various differences that inform both the culture of gun ownership and the general culture.

And that goes for both "sides". Neither does a culture with many guns consequently produce more (gun) crime because of the social factors involved, nor does the nature and purpose of those guns necessarily play any kind of self-defense role in deterring crime, so many guns also don't consequently deter crime. There are no justifications to be drawn by trying to compare.


The conundrum of the American gun violence problem is certainly fascinating from the outside. I'm glad not to be a part of it because it's so complex and emotional, like it would be an endless source of complete frustration. The painful thing is that there are no short-term solutions.

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