Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover by AURaptor

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Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

POSTED BY: AURAPTOR
UPDATED: Friday, November 15, 2013 13:14
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Friday, November 8, 2013 10:58 PM

America loves a winner!

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.
A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2485772/Global-warming-pause-2
0-years-Arctic-sea-ice-started-recover.html#ixzz2k7KKypkV

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 11:12 AM

JONGSSTRAW

The climate geniuses at NOAA predicted 25-30 Atlantic hurricanes for 2013. We Floridians usually take those warnings pretty seriously. But we weren't threatened by ANY hurricanes this year, and no hurricanes hit Florida last year either. Actually, there hasn't been a significant hurricane year for us since 2005. So either we've been very lucky, or these forecasters don't know what the hell they're talking about. Eight years of scaring people with false predictions and opposite results would be enough to put even Miss Cleo out of business.

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 12:52 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

THERE IS A SUMMARY AT THE END FOR THOSE NOT WANTING TO READ THE DETAILS.

You didn't read the paper, or technical discussions about it, did you???

Of course not.

Ok, so starting with what YOU started with, the article left me with one big question about it, and one big gaping hole that it didn't address.

Quote:
‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt.

AND THEN....? If their model is so accurate, what does it say about what happens AFTER? Do we go back into a regimen of enhanced warming? Will we see a sudden temperature increase that pops us to the TOP of the IPCC's predicted curve, whereas we're currently at the bottom?

Why doesn't the paper address what happens afterwards? Hmmm....

Which brings me to the big gaping hole. One of the fundamental tenets of science is that matter (and therefore energy) can neither be created nor destroyed. If the earth is absorbing so many extra mega-joules per day due to increased atmospheric CO2 (the increase in CO2 is an incontrovertible measurement, as is its infrared absorptivity) where is that energy going? You can shuffle it here and there- surface air temperature rises or falls, melted or freezing ice ice, deep ocean heating or cooling, upper atmosphere cooling or heating, landmass warming or chilling - but until it is re-radiated out into space it doesn't just "go away".

Is that concept WHY the authors don't extend their model further out? Because they know, just as all climatologists know, that while you can push a balloon in one one side, it'll pop out on the other?

So I went to a more technical explanation, from one of the authors herself.

Quote:
the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and sea ice extent in the Eurasian Arctic shelf seas. The AMO sets the signal’s tempo, while the sea ice bridges communication between ocean and atmosphere. The oscillatory nature of the signal can be thought of in terms of ‘braking,’ whereby positive and negative feedbacks interact in such a way as to support reversals of the circulation regimes. As a result, climate regimes — multiple-decade intervals of warming or cooling — evolve in a spatially and temporally ordered manner.

While not strictly periodic in occurrence, their repetition is regular — the order of quasi-oscillatory events remains consistent. Wyatt’s thesis found that the stadium wave signal has existed for at least 300 years.

The new study analyzed indices derived from atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice data since 1900. The linear trend [ie GLOBAL WARMING] was removed from all indices to focus only the multi-decadal component of natural variability. A multivariate statistical technique called Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) was used to identify patterns of variability shared by all indices analyzed, which characterizes the ‘stadium wave.’ The removal of the long-term trend from the data effectively removes the response from long term climate forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases....

The stadium wave periodically enhances or dampens the trend of long-term rising temperatures, which may explain the recent hiatus in rising global surface temperatures. The stadium wave holds promise in putting into perspective numerous observations of climate behavior, such as regional patterns of decadal variability in drought and hurricane activity, the researchers say, but a complete understanding of past climate variability and projections of future climate change requires integrating the stadium-wave signal with external climate forcing from the sun, volcanoes and anthropogenic forcing.

“How external forcing projects onto the stadium wave, and whether it influences signal tempo or affects timing or magnitude of regime shifts, is unknown and requires further investigation,” Wyatt said. “While the results of this study appear to have implications regarding the hiatus in warming, the stadium wave signal does not support or refute anthropogenic global warming. The stadium wave hypothesis seeks to explain the natural multi-decadal component of climate variability.”

http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/10/the-stadium-wave/

I know, that's a lot of words, some of them are big, and your eyes glazed over after the first sentence of this post. So here's a

SUMMARY

The authors clearly understand that global warming exists, and they've included as a "baseline" in their model. They also understand that their model is a statistical one, it doesn't attempt to energy-balance the climate, it simply projects forward what they think has happened in the past, but since the past is NOT a good model for the present (or the future) even they believe that the two models should be integrated.

Okie dokie then.

Next?

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 1:26 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

From Judith Curry a prominent climate skeptic. You see how even she concedes that warming due to AGW is real, Auraptor?

The conclusion, if true (I have strong doubts, the science seems pretty flimsy) is not as ground-shaking as Auraptor would like it to be. This 'Stadium Wave' theory is supposed to be a natural cycle that either adds to or decreases warming (depending on what part of the cycle we're in). So it might be slowing down the warming now, but in the future it will be accelerating it. Overall its effect would be neutral - because it's a cycle.

As the theory goes, from the article: "...a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due ...to the same cyclical wave."

So the climate models that ignore this cycle (and they're right to - it's far from concrete science) will still be right in the long run.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 1:49 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

The AGW proponents have been wrong about damn near everything. They didn't see the pause, don't know what causes it, and they believe it'll stop, in 2034 ?

ROFLMAO !

It might. It might not.

THEY HAVE NO GORRAM CLUE !

And it shows.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 1:50 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
The AGW proponents have been wrong about damn near everything.

EVEN THE AUTHORS OF THE ARTICLE THAT YOU POSTED AGREE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS OCCURRING. THEY BUILT IT INTO THEIR STATISTICS: GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL.

How not to get the point!

(I figure if I put it in all caps, it might sink in.)

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 2:09 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
They didn't see the pause, don't know what causes it,

There are a couple of good theories for what is causing the current plateau of temperatures. One is that the oceans are absorbing a disproportionate amount of heat, but it will be released back into the atmosphere at a later date. The other is that an increase in smoggy pollution in countries like China is reflecting a lot of solar radiation. Let's hope it's the second one, but even that won't slow the warming forever...

Quote:
and they believe it'll stop, in 2034 ?

What? No, that's what this one SKEPTIC thinks. Most AGW proponents think the plateau will end sooner than that.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, November 9, 2013 2:12 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Also,

Other times when the temperature has 'paused':

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Sunday, November 10, 2013 9:43 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Another new theory in the very active discussion about what's caused the recent 'pause' in global warming:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24874060

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Monday, November 11, 2013 3:41 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:
The AGW proponents have been wrong about damn near everything.
EVEN THE AUTHORS OF THE ARTICLE THAT YOU POSTED AGREE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS OCCURRING. THEY BUILT IT INTO THEIR STATISTICS: GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL.

How not to get the point!

(I figure if I put it in all caps, it might sink in.)

Type all day in caps , all you want. Not gonna make me believe in that which isn't real.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Monday, November 11, 2013 4:06 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
Type all day in caps , all you want. Not gonna make me believe in that which isn't real.

It's real, you just don't want to believe.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Monday, November 11, 2013 4:55 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Originally posted by m52nickerson:
Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:
Type all day in caps , all you want. Not gonna make me believe in that which isn't real.

It's real, you just don't want to believe.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

Yeah, just like Jeebus.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Monday, November 11, 2013 6:59 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

This, from the author you cited (from SignyM's post): "The linear trend [ie global warming] WAS REMOVED from all indices to focus only the multi-decadal component of natural variability."

So, once you make a point of removing the global warming signal from the data --- it disappears! Now how about that. Hmmm... when it comes to global warming, isn't that fudging the data?

As evidence of "rape mentality"

Tuesday, July 30, 2013 8:11 PM
MAL4PREZ
And just remember, according to Rappy, the term befitting a women who wants the insurance she pays for to cover medications affecting her reproductive organs is

whore

Wednesday, July 31, 2013 4:23 PM
little rappy
The term applies.

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Monday, November 11, 2013 10:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Type all day in caps , all you want. Not gonna make me believe in that which isn't real.

RAPPY

YOU posted the article, ya maroon! Apparently YOU thought it was true, at the time! Now you want to back away from it?
Sheesh!
Okay, piece of advice: READ WITH COMPREHENSION. That will save you a lot of backpedaling! (Altho it is fun to watch)

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Friday, November 15, 2013 1:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Missing Heat’ Find Prompts New Climate Estimates

Wed, 11/13/2013 - 12:00pm

Univ. of York

An interdisciplinary team of researchers say they have found “missing heat” in the climate system, casting doubt on suggestions that global warming has slowed or stopped over the past decade.

Observational data on which climate records are based cover only 84 percent of the planet – with Polar regions and parts of Africa largely excluded.

Now, Kevin Cowtan, a computational scientist at the Univ. of York, and Robert Way, a cryosphere specialist and PhD student at the Univ. of Ottawa, have reconstructed the “missing” global temperatures using a combination of observations from satellites and surface data from weather stations and ships on the peripheries of the un-sampled regions.

The new research published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society shows that the Arctic is warming at about eight times the pace of the rest of the planet. Previous studies by the UK Met Office based on the HadCRUT4 dataset, which only covers about five-sixths of the globe, suggest that global warming has slowed substantially since 1997. The new research suggests, however, that the addition of the “missing” data indicates that the rate of warming since 1997 has been two and a half times greater than shown in the Met Office studies. Evidence for the rapid warming of the Arctic includes observations from high latitude weather stations, radiosonde and satellite observations of temperatures in the lower atmosphere and reanalysis of historical data.

Cowtan, whose specialty is crystallography, carried out the research in his spare time. This is his first climate paper. He says, "There's a perception that global warming has stopped but, in fact, our data suggests otherwise. But the reality is that 16 years is too short a period to draw a reliable conclusion. We find only weak evidence of any change in the rate of global warming."

Robert Way adds, "Changes in Arctic sea ice and glaciers over the past decade clearly support the results of our study. By producing a truly global temperature record, we aim to better understand the drivers of recent climate change."

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