REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Wait a minute, you didn't learn how Obamacare ended...

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Monday, April 21, 2014 14:12
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 2683
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Friday, April 18, 2014 4:08 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.





http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-the-gop-bet-on-failure-and-los
t


Quote:


On Obamacare, the Republican party has bet big on failure for four years. Now the results are in. And they lost. Big time.

Of course, substance policy success and political outcomes aren't the same thing. And just as importantly they do not always run on the same time scale. So it is entirely possible. I would say it is likely that the GOP will still derive benefits this November from the core of voters who are extremely upset about Obamacare, extremely motivated to vote and also happen to be the same people who routinely turn out in disproportionate numbers in mid-term elections. But on the core of the policy, which I think there is good reason to believe will align with political outcomes in the future, the results are in. And they lost.

The success metrics are plentiful, manifold and really impossible not to see unless you're refusing to see them. We now know that despite the calamitous roll out of the website in October and November, exchange sign ups significantly exceeded the CBO's projections. In themselves they were never really goals. And hitting them or not hitting them wasn't the biggest deal. But they were exceeded. The final tally is 8 million health care insurance sign ups through exchanges.

The more telling numbers come from the demographic details of the sign ups - which critics have long claimed made the top line numbers irrelevant.

Most important is the latest data on the percentage of young people who signed up. That number now stands at 28% - a very good number.

The administration did say it had a goal of getting that number to 40%. But frankly that was crazy. And more importantly, wholly unnecessary. That's the percentage of this definition of 'young people' in the population at large. And to think, especially at the beginning, that you'd get 25 year olds who have little money and relatively little immediate need signing up at the same rate as 55 year olds who usually have more money and basically always have greater need is simply crazy.

To get a good sense of what the 28% number means, see Jon Cohn's article from yesterday in The New Republic. As he notes, this is virtually identical to the number achieved by this point in Massachusetts with Romneycare. That number would have been a key one for insurance carriers who had to make their own predictions about the demographic mix to set rates. So not only does it now seem extremely unlikely that there will be the risk pool 'death spiral' that Republicans were hoping for. It also seems much less likely that we'll see the year 2 "rate shock" they've also been pining after.

The dreaded "yeah, but how many have paid yet?" - well, we have those numbers too - about 85%. That number is likely to go up since not everyone's premiums are due and some will still be corralled by the insurers who are obviously highly incentivized to get people fully enrolled.

These are the internal numbers that might have spelled big trouble if they came out wrong. But they ended up spelling a very different story.

As I noted recently, GOP policy analysts are pretty clear now that Obamacare isn't collapsing, hopes of the politicals notwithstanding. And strategists have started to hint that flat opposition - repeal with no alternative that provides something like the same range of benefits - may no longer be viable from a political standpoint.

Of course, in the Obamacare gotterdammerung bubble, Obamacare is on its last legs and President Obama will soon resign and ask the country for mercy as he's hustled off by federal marshals to stand trial for Obamacare and socialism. Back on planet earth though reality-based opponents see the writing on the wall.

Indeed, the new data goes beyond simply saying that Obamacare is stable or is not headed toward a death spiral. It's better than that. It's working as expected. The rate of uninsured Americans is going down substantially - especially in states that didn't try to sabotage the rollout.

They bet on failure. And they lost the bet.



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Friday, April 18, 2014 4:16 PM

CHRISISALL


I'd still rather have healthcare like in Canada, but at least Obamacare is better than what we had... it's an okay interim vehicle I guess.

And a Tea Party's loss is everyone's gain.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 12:43 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

The success metrics are plentiful, manifold and really impossible not to see unless you're refusing to see them.
reminds me of FOXNews on election night.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 8:42 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

The success metrics are plentiful, manifold and really impossible not to see unless you're refusing to see them.
reminds me of FOXNews on election night.



And about as honest.

There's still a lot of the ACA to be implemented, including several major parts that were supposed to be in place by now but have been delayed by executive order. The success of their rollout is still an unknown. Also haven't seen what premiums are going to do over the next few years.

Declaring victory now might be a bit premature.

Might ought to wait until most of the system is up and running.




"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 9:23 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by Geezer:
Might ought to wait until most of the system is up and running.

Waiting is absolutely wrong because liberals want government to accomplish something, they want to know whether government programs are actually working. Because conservatives don’t want the government doing anything except defense and law enforcement, they aren’t really interested in evidence about success or failure. True, they may seize on alleged evidence of failure to reinforce their case, but it’s about political strategy, not genuine interest in the facts.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 11:04 AM

JONGSSTRAW


WON :
LIES OF THE YEAR 2013 by Obama ..."If you like your current plan, you can keep your current plan, period." "If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor, period."

FAIL :
7,000,000 .... # people Obama claims (lies) have signed up for 2014

-1,000,000 ... # people who haven't paid their premiums

-6,000,000 ... # people who lost previous coverage due to ACA coverage rules
_________________________________________________________

= ZERO net change

A trillion dollars spent for absolutely nothing!

A Democrat victory if ever there was one.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 11:30 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


A trillion dollars for nothing? I thought that was the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Besides, your figures are inaccurate. By that, I mean to say, Liar liar pants on fire! So you can bury your head in Karl Rove's ass.... but you can't hide.


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Saturday, April 19, 2014 11:46 AM

JONGSSTRAW


No surprise that a libtard psycho douche like Sniggy would consider toppling a mass-murderer tyrant in Iraq, and ousting terrorists who planned 9/11 and murder schoolgirls in Afghanistan "nothing". To equate those military efforts to Obamacare is truly twisted and insane.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 11:55 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
libtard

You are fined one credit for that.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 12:02 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
libtard

You are fined one credit for that.


Put it on my tab.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 12:06 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.





To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. - Thomas Paine The American Crisis
OONJERAH - We are too dumb to live and smart enough to wipe ourselves out.
"You, who live in any kind of comfort or convenience, do not know how these people can survive these things, do you? They will endure because there is no immediate escape from endurance. Some will die, the rest must live."

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 12:09 PM

WHOZIT


All they've done is sign up people, it hasn't even really begun yet. Wait until people have to use it. Plus Barry keeps putting off portions of it, Barrycare is going to be a disaster when it goes full blast. You libs are counting you chickens before the eggs are laid.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 1:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

No surprise that a libtard psycho douche like Sniggy would consider toppling a mass-murderer tyrant in Iraq, and ousting terrorists who planned 9/11 and murder schoolgirls in Afghanistan "nothing". To equate those military efforts to Obamacare is truly twisted and insane.
You're right... One meant killing 100,000+ people (possibly over a million), leaving two nations broken by sectarian violence and hotbeds of radical jihadism, and the other means providing healthcare to people who've been excluded due to pre-existing conditions or poverty.

You're right! Trying to compare those two is just twisted!


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Saturday, April 19, 2014 1:29 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
No surprise that a libtard psycho douche like Sniggy would consider toppling a mass-murderer tyrant in Iraq, and ousting terrorists who planned 9/11 and murder schoolgirls in Afghanistan "nothing". To equate those military efforts to Obamacare is truly twisted and insane.



I thought we couldn't use the word "libtard" anymore?

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 2:05 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
No surprise that a libtard psycho douche like Sniggy would consider toppling a mass-murderer tyrant in Iraq, and ousting terrorists who planned 9/11 and murder schoolgirls in Afghanistan "nothing". To equate those military efforts to Obamacare is truly twisted and insane.



I thought we couldn't use the word "libtard" anymore?


Take a walk on the wild side. I said hey Whoozie, take a walk on the wild side. And all the colored girls say lib lib lib lib lib lib lib lib, tard tard tard tard tard tard tard tard tard....

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 4:20 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I have to say, you righturds never cease to amaze with the jaw-dropping stupidity of your posts. Apparently you have no sense of personal dignity or shame.



To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. - Thomas Paine The American Crisis
OONJERAH - We are too dumb to live and smart enough to wipe ourselves out.
"You, who live in any kind of comfort or convenience, do not know how these people can survive these things, do you? They will endure because there is no immediate escape from endurance. Some will die, the rest must live."

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 4:33 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


The successful it becomes the more the GOP will spin out of control.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 5:59 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


The writing is on the wall for the writing on the wall about Obamacare.

*continuing laughter*

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 6:01 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Double.



It's not personal. It's just war.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 6:10 PM

MAL4PREZ


Ya know, back when O was elected I asked our resident RWAs to come back in a few years after their guns were NOT taken and the economy did improve and the USA didn't turn into some commie-socialist-nazi-state so I could mock them. OK, that's not how I said it, but it's what I meant and it's all the use I find in them now.

I look forward to more mocking of them over Obamacare. The RWAs never realize that when reality is constantly not on their side, they just look stupid. All their silly posts and insults and hand waving and strawmanning and goal post moving serves them nothing in the end, because they are just wrong.

Not that I expect them to ever recognize it. They will have moved on to some other hysteria next year. Or maybe not. Maybe they'll still be waving their hands about Benghazi (while still ignoring the several Benghazi's, as well as the 9-11, that happened on W's watch.) Like a dog chasing it's own tail, never figuring out what it's attached to...

In fact, they're kind of like this guy:




*-------------------------------------------------*
What trolls reveal about themselves when they troll:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57532
*-------------------------------------------------*



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Saturday, April 19, 2014 6:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Anyway, the problem with insisting that people hew to reality isn't that you're wrong, or that doing crazy stuff (like denying global warming) gets really bad results and maybe people should avoid that through a dose of reality - it's that IMO people have long long long histories of believing crazy stuff that isn't true. I would propose the pyramids as an example. And that it's human nature, if anything is. And it'll probably be our undoing as we overall insist on our ideologies as reality in the face of the real thing.



To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. - Thomas Paine The American Crisis
OONJERAH - We are too dumb to live and smart enough to wipe ourselves out.
"You, who live in any kind of comfort or convenience, do not know how these people can survive these things, do you? They will endure because there is no immediate escape from endurance. Some will die, the rest must live."

ETA: a long time ago Signym mentioned a study where children persist in following instructions even when they can see that many steps are meaningless. Maybe I can expand on that - it's a fundamental characteristic of humans that they will adopt as reality the things they're told (verbal models) (and even in the face of concrete evidence to the contrary). And IMO that's both an advantage and a liability. It's an advantage because it allows the transmission of ever more complicated technologies even when we don't understand the workings. It's a disadvantage because it allows society to be hijacked into destructive and self-destructive verbal 'realities' that don't correspond to actual reality.

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 7:09 PM

MAL4PREZ


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
And it'll probably be our undoing as we overall insist on our ideologies in the face of reality.


Idk. I think this is shifting. I think people are starting to clue in on evidence and data, largely because such things are available now via the internet and such. The stupidity of belief-based denial has always been there, and in fact it ruled for a very long time. But now we can see it. Now we can actually chat with the people who do that stuff, and we can *see* it. And we can see how it fails.

I've had new theories regarding this kind of thing lately, but I won't get into it here because it'd be a major thread-jack.

Anyhow, it reminds me of an argument I had with a frenemy at summer camp when I was in probably 5th grade. We got all heated about whether the earth was the 2nd or 3rd planet from the sun. (I was on the correct side, btw. :p) How stupid was that? Why argue when you can just look it up? This is not something to get upset about. The answer is 2 or 3. End of story.

OK, policy arguments do have weight because policy can change between now and the outcome of Obamacare, thus affecting the outcome. But that's not what's happening here in RWED. The RWAs continue in their habit of providing nothing concrete, just repeated mulish insistence based on how bad they really want a certain outcome. Arguing against them is silly, because these dunderheads have no effect on the outcome. All you have to do is wait, and they will be proven wrong.

Not that I'm trying to stop you for arguing. Go crazy. I know it can be fun. All I'm doing is setting the stage for my future mockage of the trolls. I will enjoy it.

ETA re your ETA: yeah, that study relates to my thread-jack idea. Maybe I'll start a thread about it. Maybe. I don't tend to be here much, so I'd likely start the thread and disappear. *sigh*


*-------------------------------------------------*
What trolls reveal about themselves when they troll:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57532
*-------------------------------------------------*



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Saturday, April 19, 2014 7:18 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I'd like to hear what you have in mind. I'm sure it'll be interesting - even if you post and run. :)



To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. - Thomas Paine The American Crisis
OONJERAH - We are too dumb to live and smart enough to wipe ourselves out.
"You, who live in any kind of comfort or convenience, do not know how these people can survive these things, do you? They will endure because there is no immediate escape from endurance. Some will die, the rest must live."

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Saturday, April 19, 2014 8:07 PM

MAL4PREZ


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
I'd like to hear what you have in mind. I'm sure it'll be interesting - even if you post and run. :)



To argue with a man who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead. - Thomas Paine The American Crisis
OONJERAH - We are too dumb to live and smart enough to wipe ourselves out.
"You, who live in any kind of comfort or convenience, do not know how these people can survive these things, do you? They will endure because there is no immediate escape from endurance. Some will die, the rest must live."



mmmm ok. I'm writing something up. It's getting long. Lots of words needed.


*-------------------------------------------------*
What trolls reveal about themselves when they troll:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57532
*-------------------------------------------------*



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Monday, April 21, 2014 12:49 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
No surprise that a libtard psycho douche like Sniggy would consider toppling a mass-murderer tyrant in Iraq, and ousting terrorists who planned 9/11 and murder schoolgirls in Afghanistan "nothing". To equate those military efforts to Obamacare is truly twisted and insane.



Ah, epithets, butchered grammar and a lack of any evidence - but you just MUST be right, just CUZ!!

Right wing "logic" at its finest!




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:12 PM

JONGSSTRAW


^ Aw, how precious. Sniggy's got someone to bump uglies with!

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I think Jongss is drinking again. Best not to talk to a drunk troll about politics or... anything.

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:16 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think Jongss is drinking again. Best not to talk to a drunk troll about politics or... anything.



How could you even tell? It's all just a deluge of angry, thought-challenged bile from him.

You are right - not worth talking to. Worth mockery, though? Most definitely.




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:19 PM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
^ Aw, how precious. Sniggy's got someone to bump uglies with!



Yep. That's how it works. See, those who take the time to actually read things, and know actual information, tend to stick together.

Those who actively avoid any factual info, and rely solely on what they want to be true, and will hew to it no matter how much evidence disproves them, well - they stick together, too.

Which is why you find yourself so often in the company of the rapturd and the zit. You are all a matched set.




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:19 PM

JONGSSTRAW


^ Aw, how precious. Sniggy's got someone to bump uglies with!

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:22 PM

STORYMARK


Awww, Jongsie's burned out his last semi-functional brain cell, and now can't even think of an new way to be irrelevant.





"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, April 21, 2014 1:30 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Quote:

Originally posted by Storymark:

That's how it works. See, those who take the time to actually read things, and know actual information, tend to stick together.


WOW, a dickhead who "knows actual information" !

Well that changes nothing... you'll always be a dickhead.

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Monday, April 21, 2014 2:08 PM

STORYMARK


Just bringing this back up, to waste the idiot jongsie's time trying to hide that which he can't comprehend (such as, turning a phrase so as to mock his denial - he just keeps the funny coming!)




"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Monday, April 21, 2014 2:12 PM

JONGSSTRAW


^ Well that changes nothing... you'll always be a dickhead.

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