REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Objectivity and Ukraine

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Sunday, November 20, 2022 09:22
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 5184
PAGE 1 of 2

Sunday, May 11, 2014 1:02 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Since you all seem to think I'm not "objective" about Ukraine, I decided to cite... MYSELF! Here are my predictions, from March 8 and March 9. Along with reams and reams of information, discussion, and sources. Applying KPO's "predictions test" for demonstrating knowledge, how're these predictions coming along, two months later?

Quote:


KIEV AND THE WEST CALL CRIMEAN VOTE A "SHAM"
The government in Kiev called the Crimean referendum a "sham". Citing territorial integrity, the government in Kiev - which has yet to stand for election- said it would refuse to recognize the vote, and that Crimea should be returned to the Ukraine.

KIEV DELAYS NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Citing national security, the transitional government of Kiev has canceled national elections indefinitely. When asked whether this would effect aid and loan guarantees from the West, and IMF loans, western sources and IMF head Christine Lagarde said they did not foresee any difficulty with the Ukrainian government being able to maintain its financial authority over the nation. There are many upcoming agreements to be signed with the EU.

KIEV ANNOUNCES AUSTERITY
Because of the cutoff of natural gas deliveries and the subsequent price hike, the transitional Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatseniuk, has announced that natural gas subsidies would be cut back significantly. The IMF has insisted, as it has done with most of its governmental loans, that subsidies be cut in order to shore up governmental finances. Yatseniuk, himself a banker and favored by the United States to head the transitional government, has full authority to obtain loans and sign international agreements, according to the EU and the USA.

KIEV CLAIMS RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE IN DONETSK AND OTHER EASTERN CITIES, SENDS IN TROOPS
Kiev has claimed that Russian troops, disguised as pro-Russian militants, have taken over government buildings and have shot several Ukrainian citizens. Kiev has sent in troops from western Ukraine to quell these disturbances and oust the invaders.

STEP FIVE: MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING PROVINCES ARRANGE FOR REFERENDA



http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57588&p=2

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 1:26 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Those are awfully specific predictions. They almost read like headlines. Written in the PAST tense.

Huh.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 2:17 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Since you all seem to think I'm not "objective" about Ukraine, I decided to cite... MYSELF!



Citing yourself? HAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHHHAHAHAHAHAAH!

You are not making predictions that a lot of people seen coming. The Amazing Kreskin you are not.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 2:42 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

You are not making predictions that a lot of people seen coming?
Huh? Your sentence doesn't even make sense. Did YOU see this coming, two months ago?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 5:40 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



400 Blackwater Mercs Deployed In Ukraine Against Separatists, German Press Reports

Quote:

In what is becoming a weekly ritual, the German press continues to demolish the US case of "idealistic humaniatrian" Ukraine intervention. Recall, that it was a week ago that German tabloid Bild am Sonntag, hardly the most reputable source but certainly one which reaches the broadest audience, reported that dozens of CIA and FBI agents were "advising the Ukraine government." This conclusion is hardly a stretch and certainly based on facts considering the recent semi-secret jaunt by CIA head Brennan to Kiev. Fast forward one week when overnight the same Bild reported that about 400 elite mercenary commandos of the private US security firm, Academi, f/k/a Xe Services, f/k/a Blackwater "are involved in a punitive operation mounted by Ukraine's new government" against east Ukraine separatists.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/400-blackwater-mercs-deployed
-ukraine-against-separatists-german-press-reports


It seems the Germans are getting tired of American "interventions".


Caught On Tape: Ukrainian National Guardsmen Shooting At Crowd In East Ukraine Referendum Town
Quote:

With the referendum vote largely concluded in most east Ukraine regions, it was virtually inevitable that the day would end without some provocation. And, as expected, moments ago CBS reported that "Ukrainian national guardsmen opened fire Sunday on a crowd outside a town hall in eastern Ukraine and an official for the region's insurgents said there were fatalities."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/caught-tape-ukrainian-nationa
l-guardsmen-shooting-crowd-east-ukraine-referendum-town


PREDICTION: Despite attempted (military) interference by Kiev, the results of the two referenda will show overwhelming support for leaving Ukraine. The tighter Kiev tries to grip Ukraine, to more will slip through their fingers.

You'll have to remember this, or someone else will have to copy-paste, because otherwise you will prefer to claim I post-edited it.


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 6:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Too late!

89% Of Donetsk Voters Pick Independence From Kiev; Ukraine Prepared To Fight To Defend Territory

Quote:

Marc Burleigh @marcburleigh Follow Rebels in Donetsk in east #Ukraine give press conference & claim 89% of voters in province cast ballots in favour of self-rule @AFP


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/89-donetsk-voters-pick-indepe
ndence-kiev-ukraine-warns-prepared-fight-defend-territo


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 6:18 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Since you all seem to think I'm not "objective" about Ukraine, I decided to cite... MYSELF! Here are my predictions, from March 8 and March 9. Along with reams and reams of information, discussion, and sources. Applying KPO's "predictions test" for demonstrating knowledge, how're these predictions coming along, two months later?

Quote:


KIEV AND THE WEST CALL CRIMEAN VOTE A "SHAM"
The government in Kiev called the Crimean referendum a "sham". Citing territorial integrity, the government in Kiev - which has yet to stand for election- said it would refuse to recognize the vote, and that Crimea should be returned to the Ukraine.

KIEV DELAYS NATIONAL ELECTIONS
Citing national security, the transitional government of Kiev has canceled national elections indefinitely. When asked whether this would effect aid and loan guarantees from the West, and IMF loans, western sources and IMF head Christine Lagarde said they did not foresee any difficulty with the Ukrainian government being able to maintain its financial authority over the nation. There are many upcoming agreements to be signed with the EU.

KIEV ANNOUNCES AUSTERITY
Because of the cutoff of natural gas deliveries and the subsequent price hike, the transitional Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatseniuk, has announced that natural gas subsidies would be cut back significantly. The IMF has insisted, as it has done with most of its governmental loans, that subsidies be cut in order to shore up governmental finances. Yatseniuk, himself a banker and favored by the United States to head the transitional government, has full authority to obtain loans and sign international agreements, according to the EU and the USA.

KIEV CLAIMS RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE IN DONETSK AND OTHER EASTERN CITIES, SENDS IN TROOPS
Kiev has claimed that Russian troops, disguised as pro-Russian militants, have taken over government buildings and have shot several Ukrainian citizens. Kiev has sent in troops from western Ukraine to quell these disturbances and oust the invaders.

STEP FIVE: MORE RUSSIAN-SPEAKING PROVINCES ARRANGE FOR REFERENDA



http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57588&p=2



I'm sorry I missed this and didn't copy it to the predictions thread.

I would say two of those were near inevitable - the denunciation of the Crimea referendum (that happened immediately didn't it?) and the IMF-backed austerity and gas subsidy cuts.

Kiev sending in troops to the Eastern regions was a good prediction. Other eastern regions arranging referenda was also good, although did this happen before the pro-Russia militants seized government buildings, as in your original list of predictions?

It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 6:53 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Too late!

89% Of Donetsk Voters Pick Independence From Kiev; Ukraine Prepared To Fight To Defend Territory

Quote:

Marc Burleigh @marcburleigh Follow Rebels in Donetsk in east #Ukraine give press conference & claim 89% of voters in province cast ballots in favour of self-rule @AFP


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/89-donetsk-voters-pick-indepe
ndence-kiev-ukraine-warns-prepared-fight-defend-territo




Funny that earlier polls found that even in the East the majority of Ukrainians, including those in the east, wanted a united Ukraine.

I would also question if you understand how mercenaries work.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 6:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


That was before Kiev started shooting and burning civilians.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 7:07 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
That was before Kiev started shooting and burning civilians.



Or before the pro-Russian separatist started killing government officials, attacking Gypsies, of killing people not speaking Russian.

See horrible things are taking place on both sides of this. As I said before, there are no good guys here.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 8:47 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Or before the pro-Russian separatist started killing government officials
Cites please?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 9:05 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


The mayor of Kharkiv, Hennadiy Kernes, was shot in the back while cycling on 28 April.[190] He was said to be in "grave, but stable" condition.[191][192] Kernes was known as a staunch opponent of the Euromaidan. However, he had stated that he did not support the pro-Russian insurgency, and backed a united Ukraine.[191] Mykhailo Dobkin, a former governor of Kharkiv Oblast and potential Ukrainian presidential candidate, said "You want to know my opinion, they were shooting not at Kernes, but at Kharkiv", and claimed that the shooting was an attempt to destabilize what was otherwise a relatively calm region.[191]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has accused "terrorist gangs" of being behind the referendums, which have followed weeks of deadly violence in Ukraine's east. Most recently, 20 separatist militants were killed on May 9 in a government "antiterrorist" operation in the coastal city of Mariupol. Numerous pro-Kyiv officials and activists have also been reported killed.

A number of journalists have reported being beaten or otherwise prevented from entering polling stations.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-separatist-referendums-voting/253
80921.html


I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Sunday, May 11, 2014 10:28 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has accused "terrorist gangs" of being behind the referendums, which have followed weeks of deadly violence in Ukraine's east. Most recently, 20 separatist militants were killed on May 9 in a government "antiterrorist" operation in the coastal city of Mariupol
So, Kiev killed 20 people that they claimed were terrorists. Not sure how this supports your case; it seems to indicate that Kiev is killing people

Quote:

Numerous pro-Kyiv officials and activists have also been reported killed.
How many? Who? Where? I skimmed thru your links and could find no supporting evidence. You're going to have to supply more information than that.

Oooh, and now I get to pull a M52/MAL4/G/KPO ... Radio Free Europe as a source? Really???


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 2:32 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


(Reuters) -
Quote:

Pro-Moscow rebels declared a resounding victory in a referendum on self-rule for eastern Ukraine, with some saying that meant independence and others eventual union with Russia as fighting flared in a conflict increasingly out of control.

Organizers in the main region holding the makeshift vote on Sunday said nearly 90 percent had voted in favor.

Well before polls closed, one separatist leader said the region would form its own state bodies and military after the referendum, formalizing a split that began with the armed takeover of state buildings in a dozen eastern towns last month.

Another said the vote simply showed that the East wanted to decide its own fate, whether in Ukraine, on its own, or as part of Russia.

"Eighty-nine percent, that's it," the head of the separatist electoral commission in Donetsk, Roman Lyagin, said by telephone when asked for the result of a vote that the pro-Western Ukrainian government in Kiev has condemned as illegal.

Sunday's vote went ahead despite a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to postpone it - a move that briefly raised hopes for an easing of tension. Western leaders have accused Putin of destabilizing Ukraine, a charge Moscow denies.

The European Union declared the referendum illegal and prepared to increase pressure on Russia on Monday by taking a first step towards extending sanctions to companies, as well as people, linked to Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA40
0LI20140512

Russia should bear sanctions because of what Ukraine does?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 8:48 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
(Reuters) -
Quote:

Pro-Moscow rebels declared a resounding victory in a referendum on self-rule for eastern Ukraine, with some saying that meant independence and others eventual union with Russia as fighting flared in a conflict increasingly out of control.

Organizers in the main region holding the makeshift vote on Sunday said nearly 90 percent had voted in favor.

Well before polls closed, one separatist leader said the region would form its own state bodies and military after the referendum, formalizing a split that began with the armed takeover of state buildings in a dozen eastern towns last month.

Another said the vote simply showed that the East wanted to decide its own fate, whether in Ukraine, on its own, or as part of Russia.

"Eighty-nine percent, that's it," the head of the separatist electoral commission in Donetsk, Roman Lyagin, said by telephone when asked for the result of a vote that the pro-Western Ukrainian government in Kiev has condemned as illegal.

Sunday's vote went ahead despite a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to postpone it - a move that briefly raised hopes for an easing of tension. Western leaders have accused Putin of destabilizing Ukraine, a charge Moscow denies.

The European Union declared the referendum illegal and prepared to increase pressure on Russia on Monday by taking a first step towards extending sanctions to companies, as well as people, linked to Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA40
0LI20140512

Russia should bear sanctions because of what Ukraine does?



Are you that naive to think Russia is not involved in all this? Do you not see what the next set of votes may likely be?

You can be summed up like this, if the West does it = bad. If anyone else does it = good.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 8:49 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has accused "terrorist gangs" of being behind the referendums, which have followed weeks of deadly violence in Ukraine's east. Most recently, 20 separatist militants were killed on May 9 in a government "antiterrorist" operation in the coastal city of Mariupol
So, Kiev killed 20 people that they claimed were terrorists. Not sure how this supports your case; it seems to indicate that Kiev is killing people

Quote:

Numerous pro-Kyiv officials and activists have also been reported killed.
How many? Who? Where? I skimmed thru your links and could find no supporting evidence. You're going to have to supply more information than that.

Oooh, and now I get to pull a M52/MAL4/G/KPO ... Radio Free Europe as a source? Really???




Don't like that link, fine. I gave you two.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 10:33 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Almost guaranteed best 6 minutes of your day :


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 10:33 AM

JONGSSTRAW


sticky key dbl.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 10:48 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
(Reuters) -
Quote:

Pro-Moscow rebels declared a resounding victory in a referendum on self-rule for eastern Ukraine, with some saying that meant independence and others eventual union with Russia as fighting flared in a conflict increasingly out of control.

Organizers in the main region holding the makeshift vote on Sunday said nearly 90 percent had voted in favor.

Well before polls closed, one separatist leader said the region would form its own state bodies and military after the referendum, formalizing a split that began with the armed takeover of state buildings in a dozen eastern towns last month.

Another said the vote simply showed that the East wanted to decide its own fate, whether in Ukraine, on its own, or as part of Russia.

"Eighty-nine percent, that's it," the head of the separatist electoral commission in Donetsk, Roman Lyagin, said by telephone when asked for the result of a vote that the pro-Western Ukrainian government in Kiev has condemned as illegal.

Sunday's vote went ahead despite a call by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to postpone it - a move that briefly raised hopes for an easing of tension. Western leaders have accused Putin of destabilizing Ukraine, a charge Moscow denies.

The European Union declared the referendum illegal and prepared to increase pressure on Russia on Monday by taking a first step towards extending sanctions to companies, as well as people, linked to Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA40
0LI20140512

Russia should bear sanctions because of what Ukraine does?


Russia set all of this in motion, even if it has stopped its interference - which I doubt it has.

It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 11:04 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


KPO
Quote:

Russia set all of this in motion
I have been following this much more closely than most people here, I think. This has never come up as a fact, either from western or Russian press.

In other words, this sounds like yet another baseless assumption to me, so... Cites please?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 12:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


M52
Quote:

Don't like that link, fine. I gave you two.
I looked at both. The first seems to negate your point entirely; the second had no useful information that I could find!

So, you'll have to find other links, because neither one of them supports your point. The Magic Eightball says Try again!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 3:35 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO
Quote:

Russia set all of this in motion
I have been following this much more closely than most people here, I think. This has never come up as a fact, either from western or Russian press.

In other words, this sounds like yet another baseless assumption to me, so... Cites please?


Signy, there is a vast gap between 'proven fact' and 'baseless assumption', with plenty of room in between. Putin's involvement in Eastern Ukraine falls into the 'very strong probability' category. I will go through this briefly, because you may be the last person to ever be convinced, but evidence and logic supporting this theory include:

1. Putin has previous - he did the same thing in Crimea a couple of months earlier, and has since admitted it
2. The 'little green men' have been frequently sighted in East Ukraine, as in Crimea, same uniforms, same Russian-made weapons
3. The separatist operations were very sudden, and professional, and showed strategic planning (again, like in Crimea - seizing important administrative buildings and setting up checkpoints) - compare to the Maidan revolution, which grew for months and eventually boiled over.
4. Some of the separatists are very well armed (including missiles to shoot down helicopters)
5. There's no evidence that the separatists' actions in taking over police stations etc. were part of a genuinely popular revolution - the anti-Kiev protests up until then were small.
6. Putin has a motive: if the May 25th election goes ahead and is free and fair the pro-Russia side will get trounced.
7. Why would the East take up arms against a temporary government, who they can vote to replace in just a few weeks?

Put all this (and more) together and you don't get the picture of a truly organic, grass-roots revolution, but a heavily Russian sponsored, and directed, insurgency.


It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 3:53 PM

JONGSSTRAW



NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 3:54 PM

JONGSSTRAW


Ukraine - Russia Update



NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 4:10 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
M52
Quote:

Don't like that link, fine. I gave you two.
I looked at both. The first seems to negate your point entirely; the second had no useful information that I could find!

So, you'll have to find other links, because neither one of them supports your point. The Magic Eightball says Try again!



So Hennadiy Kernes was not the mayor of Kharkiv or was not shot?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Monday, May 12, 2014 4:12 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KPO
Quote:

Russia set all of this in motion
I have been following this much more closely than most people here, I think. This has never come up as a fact, either from western or Russian press.

In other words, this sounds like yet another baseless assumption to me, so... Cites please?



So Russian did not have forces in Crimea? They did not annex Crimea?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, May 13, 2014 12:16 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Russian had forces in Crimea. After all, they lease a large naval base there; it would be impossible NOT to have forces in Crimea. That would be like saying there are no US forces in Guantanamo.

But, yes, there were "little green men" in Crimea, in the background and not doing anything, as far as I - or anyone- can tell.

However, the situation in Odessa and eastern Ukraine is quite a bit different. (Odessa is to the west of Crimea.) There is no naval base there, and western powers would be wroth if Russia sent troops over the border. I read an article in cnn (I believe, it was major western media, anyway) where reporters went and interviewed local separatist militias, and it was a motley crew of Ukrainians and Modolvans and Belorussians who had military experience in Chechnya and some gear, but not Russian regulars. AFA the arms, I've also read reports that the separatist militias have been capturing Ukrainian arms. And ALL the military gear there is Russian-made. Telling the difference between a Russian-speaking Ukrainian, an ethnic Russian living in the Ukraine, and Russian special forces is well-nigh impossible. The fact that nobody has been able to definitively show that Russian troops are, indeed, in eastern Ukraine - despite an intensive hunt for them and a few false starts- looks to me like their presence is small... below detection. But there may be more information developing, because if I were Putin, that's what I'd do- provide just enough/ critical help to really gum up the Kiev national guard/ irregulars. Of course, that requires significant participation by the locals too.

Quote:

In other words, this sounds like yet another baseless assumption to me, so... Cites please?
So, you got nothing. The local police ... and also the regular Ukrainian army- have been defecting to the "other side", and there have been gun battles to demonstrating this. Many of the encounters have NOT been well-planned, which is why so many people were caught in a burning building and killed.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, May 13, 2014 7:35 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Those "little green men" blocked entrance into Crimea for some, including journalists. Them being there also displayed straight making sure that Ukraine forces could not move it. So saying they they were not doing anything is disingenuous.

The annexing of Crimea also affected the situation in the east. It showed the east how far Russia was willing to get involved. You would not have the Separatists acting so boldly if not for that.

You keep saying Russian regulars when talking about Russia having people in the east. However no one is arguing that there is regular Russian troops there. They would be special forces. You understand this and it is why you are care in stipulating "regulars".

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, May 13, 2014 9:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


M52

So, you think that the unelected government of Kiev should have forced Crimea into the fold when the vast majority wanted "out"? I guess you don't believe in democracy. But that's OK- neither (apparently) does the US government.

Also, I thought I said, rather clearly, that I ASSUME there are some Russian special forces in East Ukraine, but very few. Nobody has been able to find them yet, and not even pro-Kiev locals have been able to suss them out, so the number must be very small. There are a lot of things that Russia can provide, like intelligence (troop movements) and advisors, but I think what you're seeing in east Ukraine is for the most part a genuine, homegrown attempt to gain at least some freedom from Kiev.

A number of threads and posts ago, you said that we would rather destroy a nation than see it become friendly to our enemies, and I asked if you mean Russia and China as the enemy you were most concerned about.

You also accused me of being biased, thinking anything the USA does is bad, and anything anyone else does is good. I would suggest that you suffer from the opposite bias, thinking that ANYthing the USA does is good. I think these deserve further discussion.


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, May 13, 2014 3:13 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Signy, 12 days before the scheduled date, do you stand by your prediction: 'KIEV DELAYS NATIONAL ELECTIONS' ?

Or do you see anything else happening before then? We're 12 days away and Kiev and several EU governments seem to be confident that they are on course to go ahead.

It seems to me that Putin is running out of time if he wants to stop them, but I'm not sure how much more he can throw at them...

It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, May 13, 2014 8:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by m52nickerson:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Too late!

89% Of Donetsk Voters Pick Independence From Kiev; Ukraine Prepared To Fight To Defend Territory

Quote:

Marc Burleigh @marcburleigh Follow Rebels in Donetsk in east #Ukraine give press conference & claim 89% of voters in province cast ballots in favour of self-rule @AFP


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-11/89-donetsk-voters-pick-indepe
ndence-kiev-ukraine-warns-prepared-fight-defend-territo




Funny that earlier polls found that even in the East the majority of Ukrainians, including those in the east, wanted a united Ukraine.

I would also question if you understand how mercenaries work.


Perhaps those earlier polls forgot to include the children voting at gunpoint by putting ballots in see-through ballot boxes, or all of the votes cast in Moscow. Not to mention just dreaming up the figures, ala Obama statistics.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, May 14, 2014 8:05 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
M52

So, you think that the unelected government of Kiev should have forced Crimea into the fold when the vast majority wanted "out"? I guess you don't believe in democracy. But that's OK- neither (apparently) does the US government.

Also, I thought I said, rather clearly, that I ASSUME there are some Russian special forces in East Ukraine, but very few. Nobody has been able to find them yet, and not even pro-Kiev locals have been able to suss them out, so the number must be very small. There are a lot of things that Russia can provide, like intelligence (troop movements) and advisors, but I think what you're seeing in east Ukraine is for the most part a genuine, homegrown attempt to gain at least some freedom from Kiev.

A number of threads and posts ago, you said that we would rather destroy a nation than see it become friendly to our enemies, and I asked if you mean Russia and China as the enemy you were most concerned about.

You also accused me of being biased, thinking anything the USA does is bad, and anything anyone else does is good. I would suggest that you suffer from the opposite bias, thinking that ANYthing the USA does is good. I think these deserve further discussion.




You call the Kiev unelected, but the Ukraine Parlement was elected that change has been in the President.

As far as Crimea my point was that Russia did not have to annex it. That is regardless of what Kiev did. Russia annexataion of Crimea spurred on the seperatists in the east. Had Russian not made that move we would not be were we are now. Russia could have called for calim, even with troops in Crimea it could have called them a preace keeping force and waited to hold a referendum on annexation after the upcoming Ukrainian elections.

Russia did not do that. I don't see this as an evil move, but it was a smart one on there part. Putin got Crimea, home of there fleet, and has been able to set the table to pick up more land depending on how events unfold. It was a good political move for Putin and Russia.

I don't see the US, EU, Russia, or China's moves as good or evil overall. Yes, the US would rather is part of Ukraine stay allied to the west if not all of it. That is a simple strategic calculation. I see Russia and China as rivals, not so much enemies.

You also have to remember that this whole situation started because the people of the Ukraine wanted greater ties to the west and the government did not listen. I also think a country has the right to keep itself intacked. The US id not going to let Texas or Alaska leave. Democracy does not mean you get to take you ball and go home if you don't get what you want.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, May 14, 2014 1:18 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Anyone remember that suspiciously professional-looking pro-Russian unit taking over that police station in Kramatorsk?



An interesting article on them: http://time.com/95898/wolves-hundred-ukraine-russia-cossack/

It's not personal. It's just war.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, May 14, 2014 11:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

You call the Kiev unelected, but the Ukraine Parlement was elected that change has been in the President.
And the government of Crimea was elected too.

What I find both illogical and frustrating, M52, is that you clearly apply one set of standards to one situation, and within the space of less than a sentence you switch to another set. So (to go a little afield for examples) it's OK for the USA to have enough nuclear weapons to slag the world three times over, but not OK for Iran. Because we're the reasonable ones (although we're the only nation that used nuclear weapons on a population).

Quote:

You also have to remember that this whole situation started because the people of the Ukraine wanted greater ties to the west and the government did not listen.
No, SOME people of Ukraine. A few posts ago, I warned CHRIS not to accept such all-inclusive terms as "us", "we", "them", "the people", "people", "humans", "Americans" (or Ukrainians, Russians, Chinese etc) unless those terms TRULY apply to the group under discussion. "The people" hides a multitude of opinions.

Quote:

I don't see the US, EU, Russia, or China's moves as good or evil overall. Yes, the US would rather is part of Ukraine stay allied to the west if not all of it. That is a simple strategic calculation. I see Russia and China as rivals, not so much enemies.
Then, if we have no real enemies, why have we destroyed so many hapless nations? Is our government's foreign policy so meaningless and callous?


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, May 14, 2014 11:09 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Wow... six... seven... maybe eight potential Russian special ops in eastern Ukraine. HELP! It's an INVASION!!!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 7:34 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

You call the Kiev unelected, but the Ukraine Parlement was elected that change has been in the President.
And the government of Crimea was elected too.

What I find both illogical and frustrating, M52, is that you clearly apply one set of standards to one situation, and within the space of less than a sentence you switch to another set. So (to go a little afield for examples) it's OK for the USA to have enough nuclear weapons to slag the world three times over, but not OK for Iran. Because we're the reasonable ones (although we're the only nation that used nuclear weapons on a population).

Quote:

You also have to remember that this whole situation started because the people of the Ukraine wanted greater ties to the west and the government did not listen.
No, SOME people of Ukraine. A few posts ago, I warned CHRIS not to accept such all-inclusive terms as "us", "we", "them", "the people", "people", "humans", "Americans" (or Ukrainians, Russians, Chinese etc) unless those terms TRULY apply to the group under discussion. "The people" hides a multitude of opinions.

Quote:

I don't see the US, EU, Russia, or China's moves as good or evil overall. Yes, the US would rather is part of Ukraine stay allied to the west if not all of it. That is a simple strategic calculation. I see Russia and China as rivals, not so much enemies.
Then, if we have no real enemies, why have we destroyed so many hapless nations? Is our government's foreign policy so meaningless and callous?




What does the government of Crimea have to do with what I said? Even being a semi-autonomous part of Ukraine they were still a part of that country. I never said Crimea should not have voted for independence, but criticized the Russian annexation.

You should also not assume to know my thoughts on Iran. You know what happens when you assume.

The majority of the people in Ukraine wanted the EU deal signed. So in a Democracy that is the will of the people.

Enemies, rivals, however you want to put it they do not require good and evil. I gave you clear reasons why the US has taken the actions it has but it seems you will just ignore those.


I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 7:34 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Wow... six... seven... maybe eight potential Russian special ops in eastern Ukraine. HELP! It's an INVASION!!!



Did rappy steal your acount?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 8:24 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Not saying one way or another, but while looking at BBC World today, I found more pictures from Ukraine with highlighted areas on them, but these are described as a separatist firing a rifle/machine gun at a crowd of soccer fans in Odessa from behind police lines.

http://inforesist.org/video-fact-the-police-shield-separatists-they-sh
oot-people-form-machine-guns-from-behind-the-police/?lang=en


The BBC article reports folks saying that the fighting started when pro-Russian activists ambushed a march of football fans supporting a united Ukraine.

BBC also reports conflicting reports about the actions at the Trade Union building.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27275383

Who knows what the truth is? Accepting all of one side or the other's story seems naïve.


"When your heart breaks, you choose what to fill the cracks with. Love or hate. But hate won't ever heal. Only love can do that."

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 10:29 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


M52- I find you confusing. Let's get back to the enemies/ rivals issue: You gave me some reasons... different reasons in each case as to why we destroyed various nations... but in each case it seems we didn't achieve "our" objectives, whatever they was. So, are we just militarily incompetent? Do we just keep making the same or similar mistakes over and over again, without pause or reflection as to why we failed so abjectly the previous number of times?

One of the things I've noticed, and I beg you to notice too, is that the "reasons" for US invasion rarely make sense on the surface, and are often found to be actual blatant lies in retrospect. (And I can point them out again, if you wish, with more detail. The point is, our government lies more often than not. I wish it weren't so, but that's the truth.)

AFA whether or not "the majority" of Ukrainians wanted that specific trade deal with the EU, plus the IMF loans and the austerity that comes with it... it was never voted on, so I guess we'll never KNOW what the majority of Ukrainians wanted. It was imposed on the nation though the violent overthrow of an elected government. The violence was precipitated by a group of people (Pravy Sektor) who, in previous elections, won less than 1% of the vote. The new government was appointed by a parliament that was missing representatives from a specific region. That would be a little like the Congress of the USA deciding, without West Coast representation, to levy a special tax just because that part of the economy is "doing better", after this rump Congress appointed a new southern-states President and Cabinet. By your definition, THAT would be "democratic", wouldn't it?

No matter how much you post-justify their actions, the reality is that the nation as a whole never got to weigh in, and Kiev is reaping what it sowed.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 10:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


GEEZER

Yes, what happened on the street was very confused. As originally reported (by RT, BTW) separatists engaged the soccer fans (some of whom were Pravy Sektor, bussed in) and then melted behind police lines, as the police protected the separatists. There clearly is a man shooting at people. As I watched the video, it seems to me I heard other shots being fired. Did you hear the same thing?

However, what happened at the building- where 42 people died- is clearly the work of a small group of organized pro-Kiev street fighters, embedded in a larger group of soccer hooligans. In the links that I posted, it seems clear from the videos and pictures that neo-Nazi street fighters had pre-positioned themselves in the Trades Union building, and that burning the separatist tents, kettling them, and driving them into the building to be killed was part of the plan.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 11:03 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


M52
Quote:

Did rappy steal your acount?
No. Did he steal yours?

I have no idea what you're trying to say with that snide comment, as the video supports what I've been assuming all along- that if I were Putin, I would be sending in small numbers (like, eight in a group?) of trained fighters with critical assistance, supplying intel and advice, and possibly some critical weaponry (shoulder-fired missiles for example).

However, if you look at the videos in general what you will see is mostly males, from about 15 to about 65, in an eclectic mix of sneakers, boots, a few bullet-proof vests, mostly camo jackets, probably either leftovers from previous military service or perhaps loaned to them by the police or captured from Kiev forces. In other words, they seem to be mostly drawn from the local population, not "imposed" on them by Russia.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 3:33 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
M52- I find you confusing. Let's get back to the enemies/ rivals issue: You gave me some reasons... different reasons in each case as to why we destroyed various nations... but in each case it seems we didn't achieve "our" objectives, whatever they was. So, are we just militarily incompetent? Do we just keep making the same or similar mistakes over and over again, without pause or reflection as to why we failed so abjectly the previous number of times?



Each case is different. In Afghanistan we very well could have had lasting change and a stable government however we took our focus away from there and put in on Iraq.

The Iraq war was ill conceived. Colin Powell warned the Bush administration that if we went into Iraq we would have to own it. Powell understood that you were not going to get people in that country to come together to form a stable government. The administration at the time did not agree.

Libya we did accomplish the first goal, help the revolution get rid of the current government. We hoped that they could then come together and form something stable with us letting them do it without much interjection, unlike Afghanistan and Iraq. It has not worked. It was a different strategy.

Egypt, well that has worked in our favor. The Egyptian military whom now controls the country is much more friendly to us than the previous government.

Syria has it's own complications because of ties to Russia.

So it has not been the same strategy that has not worked, each case was different.

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
One of the things I've noticed, and I beg you to notice too, is that the "reasons" for US invasion rarely make sense on the surface, and are often found to be actual blatant lies in retrospect. (And I can point them out again, if you wish, with more detail. The point is, our government lies more often than not. I wish it weren't so, but that's the truth.)



Other than Iraq they do make sense on the surface. Afganistan was in resonce to 911. Libya was to help people take down an oppressive government that was not friendly to us. Egypt our support is aimed at something that is at least close to stable. Syria, again help people remove and oppresive government not friendly to us. How is this not clear to you?

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
AFA whether or not "the majority" of Ukrainians wanted that specific trade deal with the EU, plus the IMF loans and the austerity that comes with it... it was never voted on, so I guess we'll never KNOW what the majority of Ukrainians wanted. It was imposed on the nation though the violent overthrow of an elected government. The violence was precipitated by a group of people (Pravy Sektor) who, in previous elections, won less than 1% of the vote. The new government was appointed by a parliament that was missing representatives from a specific region. That would be a little like the Congress of the USA deciding, without West Coast representation, to levy a special tax just because that part of the economy is "doing better", after this rump Congress appointed a new southern-states President and Cabinet. By your definition, THAT would be "democratic", wouldn't it?

No matter how much you post-justify their actions, the reality is that the nation as a whole never got to weigh in, and Kiev is reaping what it sowed.



You can show that a majority wanted the deal with polls. Also you forget that dispite not have all of Parliament there they had, by their laws, enough to pass the resolutions they did. Plus we have an election coming up.

Thing is you blame the west when all the west has done is try and counter balance the interference of Russia. You know like raising the price of gas.


I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 3:37 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
M52
Quote:

Did rappy steal your acount?
No. Did he steal yours?

I have no idea what you're trying to say with that snide comment, as the video supports what I've been assuming all along- that if I were Putin, I would be sending in small numbers (like, eight in a group?) of trained fighters with critical assistance, supplying intel and advice, and possibly some critical weaponry (shoulder-fired missiles for example).

However, if you look at the videos in general what you will see is mostly males, from about 15 to about 65, in an eclectic mix of sneakers, boots, a few bullet-proof vests, mostly camo jackets, probably either leftovers from previous military service or perhaps loaned to them by the police or captured from Kiev forces. In other words, they seem to be mostly drawn from the local population, not "imposed" on them by Russia.



I made the comment because your responce looked as if you didn't understand how special forces work. The small groups would not be out front in the fighting, they would be doing what you said and you would see exactly what the video's shows.

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, May 15, 2014 10:06 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

You can show that a majority wanted the deal with polls. Also you forget that dispite not have all of Parliament there they had, by their laws, enough to pass the resolutions they did. Plus we have an election coming up.


Oh really? Several polls were taken. One poll, the GfK found that at the time, less than half of the population (45%) wanted to join the EU, and even (14%) less wanted to join the (Russian-based) Customs Union.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304644104579193992
459983238


A different poll, asking whether Ukraine should join the Customs Union found that
Quote:

If there were to be a referendum on the question should Ukraine join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, would you vote for it, against it, or decline to vote? The results showed 40.8% in favor and 33.1% opposed.
In addition, the second analysis found that
Quote:

Ottawa-based analyst Ivan Katchanovski, however, points out that the GfK polls have been unreliable in the past and have tended to exaggerate support for affiliation with Europe and ask questions that were not very clear to the respondents.

http://ukraineanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/11/28/what-do-ukrainians-wan
t-2
/

In NEITHER poll did a "majority" want to join the EU.

Quote:

Thing is you blame the west when all the west has done is try and counter balance the interference of Russia. You know like raising the price of gas.
Well, you've got things entirely bass-akwards. Russia was going to LOWER Ukraine's gas prices. But yes indeed, we interfered with that!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 1:03 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


M52
May I suggest that you get your facts straight first, before you post?

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 7:37 AM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


There were some polls that showed a majority favored joining the EU, then...

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2013/11/18-viktor-yanuko
vych-losing-europe-ukrainian-public-pifer-thoburn


and now...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/more-than-half-of-ukrainian
s-want-to-join-eu-poll-shows/495753.html


Even in the polls you posted it was 45% favoring with that trending up.

How did the west cause Russia to raise the price of gas?

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 12:23 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


There were NO polls indicating that a majority of Ukrainians wanted to join the EU right away. Let's look at this chart:



First of all, the questions are unbalanced, it is an unfair poll- joining the EU is given four chances to "win", while "no" and "hard to say" are each given only one, and there is no equivalent question about joining the Customs Union. Yep, what a way to jink the numbers!

Even so, only 37% wanted to join the EU within five years. NOT a majority. The next largest number of respondents (31%) said "no", and the next highest number (11%) said "hard to say". The remainder preferred that this decision be put off for anywhere from 5-20+ years (At 20+ years, this is effectively a "no") This poll does not support your statement.

Quote:

Even in the polls you posted it was 45% favoring with that trending up.
ONE poll showed that. Another poll didn't.

And referring to how people poll now, to justify what happened then?? Really?? Uh, you DO realize how intellectually dishonest that is, don't you?

So much has happened between now and then that opinion has changed quite a bit! NOW the nation is polarized. People in western Ukraine realize that all of their economic bridges to the east have been burned, and they really do have only one option, just as people in the south and east have had all of THEIR economic bridges to the west burned and THEY have only one option.

Quote:

How did the west cause Russia to raise the price of gas?
It didn't cause Putin to raise the price, it prevented him from reducing it. Putin was ready to offer Ukraine a 30% reduction in gas price, as well as a $15 billion bond purchase (essentially a loan to the insolvent government of Ukraine) as a non-exclusive counteroffer to the EU deal.

The EU proposal was an exclusive deal (did no allow trade with Russia) that required- among other things- adherence to NATO principles, a loan from the IMF, and austerity measures that raised customer gas prices by 50% and reduced pensions and other government social payouts by about 50%.

These were the two choices that Yanukovych faced. Quite frankly, if I were in his shoes I would have chosen the Russian offer, as it was a much better deal. (All carrots, no sticks.) The west could have obviated that conflict at any point, by withdrawing its insistence that Ukraine follow NATO requirements, for example, or by making the agreement non-exclusive, but the west insisted on harsh measures in its "offer" to Ukraine. Once the elected government was overturned- with western political/ military cover (and I'm sure as will be found out later, financial support), Russia was no longer bound by its offer to reduce gas prices.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 1:39 PM

AGENTROUKA


I'm following this discussion passively, since it's very interesting, but I haven't read through all the other very long Ukraine threads to make this out, so just for clarification:

Is this discussion about whether

1) Both the West and Russia are being equally horrible about messing with Ukraine

or

2) Russia isn't actually being horrible at all?


NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 2:17 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Russia was quite reasonable until Yanukovych was deposed, but once it was clear that the west wanted to take away Russia's naval base and have territory a mere 400 miles from Moscow from which to lob missiles, he became quite unreasonable!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Friday, May 16, 2014 2:48 PM

M52NICKERSON

DALEK!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
There were NO polls indicating that a majority of Ukrainians wanted to join the EU right away. Let's look at this chart:



First of all, the questions are unbalanced, it is an unfair poll- joining the EU is given four chances to "win", while "no" and "hard to say" are each given only one, and there is no equivalent question about joining the Customs Union. Yep, what a way to jink the numbers!

Even so, only 37% wanted to join the EU within five years. NOT a majority. The next largest number of respondents (31%) said "no", and the next highest number (11%) said "hard to say". The remainder preferred that this decision be put off for anywhere from 5-20+ years (At 20+ years, this is effectively a "no") This poll does not support your statement.

Quote:

Even in the polls you posted it was 45% favoring with that trending up.
ONE poll showed that. Another poll didn't.

And referring to how people poll now, to justify what happened then?? Really?? Uh, you DO realize how intellectually dishonest that is, don't you?

So much has happened between now and then that opinion has changed quite a bit! NOW the nation is polarized. People in western Ukraine realize that all of their economic bridges to the east have been burned, and they really do have only one option, just as people in the south and east have had all of THEIR economic bridges to the west burned and THEY have only one option.



Ukraine joining the EU or the Russian trade union would effect the whole country (if still together) so no bridges have been burned. As far as poll yes it showed that people wanted to join the EU but on differnt time frames. Also the results do not tant the poll because they are very clear.

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
It didn't cause Putin to raise the price, it prevented him from reducing it. Putin was ready to offer Ukraine a 30% reduction in gas price, as well as a $15 billion bond purchase (essentially a loan to the insolvent government of Ukraine) as a non-exclusive counteroffer to the EU deal.

The EU proposal was an exclusive deal (did no allow trade with Russia) that required- among other things- adherence to NATO principles, a loan from the IMF, and austerity measures that raised customer gas prices by 50% and reduced pensions and other government social payouts by about 50%.

These were the two choices that Yanukovych faced. Quite frankly, if I were in his shoes I would have chosen the Russian offer, as it was a much better deal. (All carrots, no sticks.) The west could have obviated that conflict at any point, by withdrawing its insistence that Ukraine follow NATO requirements, for example, or by making the agreement non-exclusive, but the west insisted on harsh measures in its "offer" to Ukraine. Once the elected government was overturned- with western political/ military cover (and I'm sure as will be found out later, financial support), Russia was no longer bound by its offer to reduce gas prices.



Russia had already discounted the gas price when Yanukovych left office. Now the price has gone back up. Had you made the same choice Yanukovych did you would be in his shoes. No Russia did not have to keep the price discounted, but it could have to try and keep thing claim. It has chosen not to.

The EU trade deal did not prevent the Ukraine from trading with Russia. Hell, most of the EU trades with Russia. It's not even true that Ukriane could nat have been part of the Trade Union with Russia, they would have just had to set up a free trade area.

Here are the details of the EU tread agreement...

http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/eu_ukraine/association_agree
ment/index_en.htm


pay attention to the Myths section because a lot of what you are claiming is in there, including the IMF part which had nothing to do with the agreement.

http://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/documents/myths_aa_en.pdf

I do not fear God, I fear the ignorance of man.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Russia Invades Ukraine. Again
Thu, March 28, 2024 05:27 - 6154 posts
In the garden, and RAIN!!! (2)
Thu, March 28, 2024 02:07 - 3408 posts
Russian losses in Ukraine
Wed, March 27, 2024 23:21 - 987 posts
Elections; 2024
Wed, March 27, 2024 22:19 - 2069 posts
human actions, global climate change, global human solutions
Wed, March 27, 2024 15:03 - 824 posts
NBC News: Behind the scenes, Biden has grown angry and anxious about re-election effort
Wed, March 27, 2024 14:58 - 2 posts
BUILD BACK BETTER!
Wed, March 27, 2024 14:45 - 5 posts
RFK Jr. Destroys His Candidacy With VP Pick?
Wed, March 27, 2024 11:59 - 16 posts
Russia says 60 dead, 145 injured in concert hall raid; Islamic State group claims responsibility
Wed, March 27, 2024 10:57 - 49 posts
Ha. Haha! HAHA! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA!!!!!!
Tue, March 26, 2024 21:26 - 1 posts
You can't take the sky from me, a tribute to Firefly
Tue, March 26, 2024 16:26 - 293 posts
Tucker Carlson
Tue, March 26, 2024 16:24 - 132 posts

FFF.NET SOCIAL