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I got this article in an email from the Financial Times, hardly a left-wing newspaper. Although the FT is subscription only, the article has raised such a stir that it's been reproduced on a number of websites including this one: www.tompaine.com/articles/the_dispensible_nation.php

I'll quote parts of it here, but I have other points to make so you can read it at the link.

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Rising Powers: How the U.S. Became the World's Dispensable Nation by Michael Lind

In a second inaugural address tinged with evangelical zeal, George W. Bush declared: "Today, America speaks anew to the peoples of the world." The peoples of the world, however, do not seem to be listening. A new world order is indeed emerging - but its architecture is being drafted in Asia and Europe, at meetings to which Americans have not been invited.

Consider Asean Plus Three (APT), which unites the member countries of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations with China, Japan and South Korea. This group has the potential to be the world's largest trade bloc, dwarfing the European Union and North American Free Trade Association. The deepening ties of the APT member states represent a major diplomatic defeat for the US, which hoped to use the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum to limit the growth of Asian economic regionalism at American expense. In the same way, recent moves by South American countries to bolster an economic community represent a clear rejection of US aims to dominate a western-hemisphere free trade zone.

Consider, as well, the EU's rapid progress toward military independence. American protests failed to prevent the EU establishing its own military planning agency independent of the NATO alliance (and thus of Washington). Europe is building up its own rapid reaction force. And despite US resistance, the EU is developing Galileo, its own satellite network, which will break the monopoly of the US global positioning satellite system.

The participation of China in Europe's Galileo project has alarmed the US military. But China shares an interest with other aspiring space powers in preventing American control of space for military and commercial uses. Even while collaborating with Europe on Galileo, China is partnering Brazil to launch satellites. And in an unprecedented move, China recently agreed to host Russian forces for joint Russo-Chinese military exercises.

In addition, both China and Russia have signed important deals with Iran: Russia will supply Iran with nuclear fuel and reprocessing, and China signed an oil and gas deal. I think both China and Russia are drawing a line in the sand (so to speak) around Iran.- signym

.... A decade ago, American triumphalists mocked those who argued that the world was becoming multipolar, rather than unipolar. Where was the evidence of balancing against the US, they asked. Today the evidence of foreign co-operation to reduce American primacy is everywhere -- from the increasing importance of regional trade blocs that exclude the US to international space projects and military exercises in which the US is conspicuous by its absence.

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So just for fun I googled up a number of searches: china+ arms+ deal, china+ oil+ deal, venezeula+ oil+ deal... and so forth. (You get the general picture.) What I found was deeply disturbing and a little frightening.

It turns out that Bush has got an entirely deluded picture of his world success. South America is already forming coalitions against us, and the coalition includes Venezuela (which is our major source of imported oil, contrary to popular belief, and which has signed a multi-billion-dollar contract with China), Brazil (the largest economy in the region and previously mentioned as a launch point for Chinese satellites), Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, and Cuba (an important symbol of anti-Americanism).

Just to make things more interesting, I see that Russia is busy taking control of ALL of its oil industry. Exactly where they will funnel the revenues is anyone's guess, but let's not forget that Putin was the head of the KGB. Russia is also China's largest source of arms.

Looking further, I noticed that all of China's large oil deals (Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, and soon to be Russia), its agreement to build a multi-berth port in Pakistan, and its pending agreement with Mexico for copper were made since Oct 2004. It smacks of an internal decision made by the Chinese Communist party which is still firmly in control of economic strategy despite the ballyhoo about China being a "capitalist" nation. In other words, somebody seems to have started a major program. I also noticed that China has approximately doubled its high-tech military budget, and is busy purchasing Russian arms, British jet engines, micro-satellites and software, and French planes, helicopters and nuclear power plant components. The Chinese are also busy building what they call the "string of pearls"- naval bases, ports, drilling concessions- from the mideast to their shores to protect (what else?) their sources of oil. In addition, China holds a HUGE chunk of American debt.


You may be wondering where I'm going with all this. Quite frankly, I'm not sure. But when I hear Bush demanding this and that of the world at large (Syria must withdraw! EU must cooperate! IRA must disband!) I have a queasy sense that Bush has no idea of the pressures that will be brought to bear if he should decide to take an important unilateral action like, say, bombing Iran. (Taiwan would be invaded and our debt called). While he's focusing on the Mideast, the world is closing against us. In some cases, it will be trade and economic retaliation, in other cases it might be military.

And what would be Bush's response? For the first time in years, I picture someone's finger on "the" button. Since we are militarily and financially overextended, nuclear weapons appear to be the ONLY realm where we have absolute dominance.

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