REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Ukraine today

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Saturday, January 2, 2016 12:55
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Saturday, December 12, 2015 12:51 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I thought this would a better forum for following current events in Ukraine than the long-irrelevant "Russia Invades Ukraine" thread. So, without further ado ...Kiev's DEBT PROBLEM.

The reform of the IMF lending policy is unlikely to help Ukraine avert default. Kiev may soon declare a technical default, the first step to bankruptcy.


Quote:

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde
© REUTERS/ Jonathan Ernst
US Resisted IMF Debt Reform as 'Moral Hazard' Prior to Ukraine Crisis
On Tuesday, the Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) voted to reform its lending policies, allowing countries to continue borrowing money even if they default on bilateral obligations to official creditors.

Experts said that the initiative was linked to the risk of a default by Ukraine on its $3 billion debt to Russia and the fund’s pursuit to save it.

According to Russian director at the IMF Alexei Mozhin, the decision came into effect immediately and would cover previous agreements.



Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20151212/1031658634/imf-reform-ukraine
.html#ixzz3u87iDX6O


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Saturday, December 12, 2015 1:45 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


ORIGINALLY POSTED BY RAHL IN RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE.
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&p=29

Quote:

Verbatim. Remember, this is just a summary of the report. Official typos and all (Or maybe it's in British English).

Quote:
Ukraine: Reduction of hostilities but serious human rights concerns persist – UN report

GENEVA (9 December 2015) – In a conflict that has claimed more than 9,000 lives, the last few months have seen a significant reduction of hostilities in certain parts of eastern Ukraine, according to a UN Human Rights report released today. Serious human rights concerns persist, however, including continuing impunity, torture and an absence of the rule of law in the east, as well as a difficult humanitarian situation for those living in the affected areas and for those internally displaced.

The twelfth report by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine states that the “ceasefire within the ceasefire” of 26 August led to a considerable decrease in hostilities, particularly due to the withdrawal of certain heavy weapons by the Ukrainian military and the armed groups. Between 16 August and 15 November, the time period covered by the report, 47 civilians were killed and 131 injured. The total death toll since mid-April last year is at least 9,098, with another 20,732 injured. Total figures include civilians, Ukrainian armed forces and armed groups.

The new casualties resulted largely from explosive remnants of war and improvised explosive devices, “underscoring the urgent need for extensive mine clearance and mine awareness actions on both sides of the contact line,” the report states. There remains, however, an inflow of ammunition, weaponry and fighters from the Russian Federation into the territories controlled by the armed groups, leaving the situation highly flammable.

The report also reveals that serious human rights abuses against people in the territories controlled by the self-proclaimed “Donetsk people’s republic” and “Luhansk people’s republic” continued, including killings, torture, ill-treatment, illegal detention and forced labour, lack of freedom of movement, assembly and expression. Local residents continue to remain without effective protection of their rights.“An estimated 2.9 million people living in the conflict area continued to face difficulties in exercising their economic and social rights, in particular access to quality medical care, accommodation, social services and benefits, as well as compensatory mechanisms for damaged, seized or looted property,” the report notes, adding that the onset of winter and impediments to the work of humanitarian organisations could worsen the situation.

“The situation for an estimated 800,000 people living along both sides of the contact line has been particularly difficult,” the report notes.

The limitations of the freedom of movement of civilians across the contact line, due to the requirements of the January 2015 temporary order issued by the Government, remained one of the major challenges for people living in the conflict-affected areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. As the reports notes, this is leading to an increased sense of isolation for many people, disrupting family and communal links..

The report also cites pervasive self-censorship and the inability of media professionals to exercise their freedom of expression in the east. Restrictions against media professionals by the Ukrainian Government also undermine freedom of expression.

The report also notes that “elements of the Security Service of Ukraine appear to enjoy a high degree of impunity, with rare investigations into allegations involving them.” The report has documented cases of “enforced disappearance, arbitrary and incommunicado detention as well as torture and ill treatment of people suspected of trespassing against territorial integrity or terrorism or believed to be supporters of the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk people’s republic’ and ‘Luhansk people’s republic’.”

Accountability has yet to be achieved for the killing of protestors and other human rights violations committed during the Maidan events in Kyivbetween November 2013 to February 2014, the report notes. There has been no progress in ensuring accountability for the death of 48 people during the violence in Odesa in May 2014.

In the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, the status of which is prescribed by UN General Assembly resolution 68/262, residents continue to be affected by the broad curtailment of their rights due to the application of a restrictive legal framework imposed upon them by the Russian Federation, the report states. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine continues to receive allegations of violations of the right to life, liberty, security and physical integrity, as well as fair trial rights and the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. The report also notes that the trade blockade of Crimea imposed by Ukrainian activists has led to human rights abuses, which were not properly addressed by law enforcement officers.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said the absence of the rule of law and legitimate authorities in territories controlled by armed groups, coupled with continuing presence of foreign fighters and sophisticated weaponry, have left people in hardship, with no real protection and no access to redress and justice.

“Civilians in the conflict-afflicted eastern parts of Ukraine end the year as they began it, in a very difficult humanitarian and human rights situation. Elderly people have no access to their life savings, people with disabilities have little assistance, and reduced access to healthcare has left many in dismal, precarious, even life-threatening situations,” High Commissioner Zeid said.

“After more than 9,000 people have lost their lives, the reduction in hostilities, and thus in new casualties, is very welcome. I urge all sides to fully implement the Minsk Agreements and to actively work to ensure the application of the rule of law and international human rights norms everywhere in Ukraine.”

The High Commissioner reminded all involved in the conflict, including those in control of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, that they can be held criminally accountable for the human rights abuses committed in territories under their control. This applies in particular to those with command responsibility.

He noted some progress by the Government of Ukraine in implementing relevant provisions of the Minsk Agreements as well as launching of a National Human Rights Strategy and accepting the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court for crimes committed after 20 February 2014. The High Commissioner also urged the authorities to ensure justice and accountability.

ENDS



Here's the full 40 page report for any body wanting to bore themselves.
http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/12thOHCHRreportUkraine.doc

(So tempting to just Ctrl+V the whole thing. I'll play nice.)

From the Executive Summary section.

Quote:
2. During the reporting period, despite a reduction in hostilities, the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine continued to significantly affect people residing in the conflict zone and all their human rights. The absence of effective control1 of the Government of Ukraine over considerable parts of the border with the Russian Federation (in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions) continued to facilitate an inflow of ammunition, weaponry and fighters from the Russian Federation to the territories controlled by the armed groups, which carries latent risks of a resurgence of hostilities.


The real document does not contain the word 'flammable'.

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Saturday, December 12, 2015 4:00 PM

RAHLMACLAREN

"Damn yokels, can't even tell a transport ship ain't got no guns on it." - Jayne Cobb


Ok, Mod, if you're going to copy my post at least accredit it to me and not cut it off.

ETA - Credit confirmed.


Find here the Serenity you seek. -Tara Maclay

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Saturday, December 12, 2015 4:32 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.rt.com/business/325152-imf-policy-ukraine-debt/

IMF allows lending to countries with arrears; Russia prepares to go to court over Ukraine debt

The International Monetary Fund has agreed to change its policy on lending to countries that are in arrears to other governments. With Ukraine being among the states that asks for financial aid while owing Russia, the move has angered Moscow.

"The IMF's Executive Board met today and agreed to change the current policy on non-toleration of arrears to official creditors," according to the IMF's Chief Spokesman Gerry Rice statement emailed to RT on Tuesday. "Details on the scope and rationale for this policy change" will be provided later, it added.

Previous IMF guidelines on lending to such states were relatively strict, stating that "the IMF doesn't lend to countries that are not making a good-faith effort to eliminate their arrears with creditors."

Ukraine is among such owing countries, having a $3 billion debt to Russia, with Kiev being on course to miss the end-of-the-year deadline to repay it. Going by the old rules, that would jeopardize IMF bailout to Kiev.

The IMF decision to change its lending policies has been made "in prejudice of Russia and to legalize Kiev's capacities not to pay its debts," Russia's Finance Minister Andrey Siluanov told journalists on Tuesday, as cited by Interfax. Siluanov called the decision "precipitated and preconceived."

Russia has addressed the IMF to help solve the situation with Ukraine's debt, but was told to "engage with negotiations [with Kiev] alongside commercial creditors," Siluanov said.

"It's not a constructive dialogue, circle has been closed. In such conditions we have no other choice but to use all possibilities to protect our rights as a creditor. We are preparing documents to go to court," the finance minister said.

Ukraine’s sovereign debt to Russia dates back to a deal between President Vladimir Putin and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich that was struck in 2013 and envisaged Moscow buying $15 billion worth of Ukrainian bonds. Russia bought $3 billion worth in December 20, 2013, and the debt is supposed to be repaid by December 20, 2015. In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Kiev a three-year installment plan to pay back, but no official answer to the proposal has been received.

The IMF was never that tolerant when EU members got into financial trouble as they are towards Ukraine – the country “with one of the worst economic conditions in the world right now," economist Jack Rasmus told RT.

"It's interesting, the contrast there with IMF's behavior this past year with regard to Greece which is an EU country, when they made Greece make its payments before they would release any additional funds... Ukraine is in the depression and it's about to default, and they are coming up with tens of billions of dollars more just to keep Ukraine floating," Rasmus said.



This one has a more coherent narrative:
http://www.euronews.com/newswires/3105657-imf-rule-change-keeps-ukrain
e-support-russia-complains
/

(And, now that it's a policy change, can Greece default on its debt to Germany and still keep IMF loans coming in?)




SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 2:28 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by RahlMaclaren:
Ok, Mod, if you're going to copy my post at least accredit it to me and not cut it off.



Oops, sorry. I was in a hurry. It's fixed now. Interesting report, thanks.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 10:13 AM

THGRRI


Russia downgraded to junk status for first time in decade


http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/26/russia-downgraded-junk
-status-decade-credit-rating


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I thought this would a better forum for following current events in Ukraine than the long-irrelevant "Russia Invades Ukraine" thread. So, without further ado ...Kiev's DEBT PROBLEM.

The reform of the IMF lending policy is unlikely to help Ukraine avert default. Kiev may soon declare a technical default, the first step to bankruptcy.


Quote:

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde
© REUTERS/ Jonathan Ernst
US Resisted IMF Debt Reform as 'Moral Hazard' Prior to Ukraine Crisis
On Tuesday, the Board of Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) voted to reform its lending policies, allowing countries to continue borrowing money even if they default on bilateral obligations to official creditors.

Experts said that the initiative was linked to the risk of a default by Ukraine on its $3 billion debt to Russia and the fund’s pursuit to save it.

According to Russian director at the IMF Alexei Mozhin, the decision came into effect immediately and would cover previous agreements.



Read more: http://sputniknews.com/business/20151212/1031658634/imf-reform-ukraine
.html#ixzz3u87iDX6O





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Sunday, December 13, 2015 10:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, what does this have to do with Ukraine? If you want to talk about Russia, why not start a new thread?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 10:50 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So hey RAHL, I have some thoughts on the report that you posted but I'm way too busy with Xmas coming up and all to respond right away. It will need a detailed reading, and I'd sure like to go back to the original. But I'm always looking for information, so I appreciate the link.

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Sunday, December 13, 2015 3:45 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


http://readersupportednews.org/news-section2/318-66/24335-wikileaks-ca
bles-confirm-new-ukrainian-president-has-been-working-for-us-govt-since-2006


Wikileaks Cables Confirm New Ukrainian President Has Been Working For US Gov't Since 2006

here's not much point in staging a coup if you don't influence who is placed in power in the aftermath. Of course in order for a puppet government to be effective, they can't be perceived as such. You wouldn't want the natives to get restless would you?

The evidence that the U.S. was behind the toppling of the Ukrainian government early this year is so overwhelming at this point that the subject really isn't up for debate, however initially it was unclear how the election of Petro Poroshenko fit in. The ecstatic response by Washington when he was declared the winner, and their unbending support in spite of his ongoing military assault against civilians in the east, made it clear that he was the chosen one, but the paper trail wasn't immediately obvious.

As it turns out, the evidence that Poroshenko is in the pocket of the U.S. State Department has been available all this time, you just had to know where to find it. In a classified diplomatic cable from 2006 released by Wikileaks.org, U.S. officials refer to Poroshenko as "Our Ukraine (OU) insider Petro Poroshenko".

A separate cable also released by Wikileaks makes it clear that the U.S. government was considered Poroshenko corrupt.

"Poroshenko was tainted by credible corruption allegations, but wielded significant influence within OU; Poroshenko's price had to be paid."

The U.S. government knew Poroshenko was dirty, but he was influential, and arguably their most dependable mole.

Perhaps the most interesting revelation comes from a 2009 cable where Poroshenko told then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton he supported "the opening of a U.S. diplomatic presence in Crimea" and "He emphasized the importance of Crimea, and said that having U.S. representation there would be useful for Ukraine." Poroshenko's role as an informant for the U.S. government continued in cables in 2010 as well.

Reading through the cables, I have to wonder if Poroshenko was actually breaking Ukrainian law by sharing the kind of strategic information that he did. Considering that this information was certainly used when planning the coup against Yanukovich, one could argue that he committed treason.

Poroshenko, however, isn't the only Ukrainian politician mentioned. For example, the cables mention the scandal surrounding Oleksandr Turchynov's destruction of SBU documents tying Julia Tymoshenko to organized crime, and note that the accusation that Tymoshenko wanted Turchynov get the Interior Minister position so that she could gather damaging information on her enemies. The cable refers to this accusation as "not farfetched". Turchynov went on to be installed as the acting president of Ukraine in the provisional government.

In order to grasp the extent of the U.S. government's tinkering in Ukraine it is worth reading the documents for yourself.






SAGAN: We are releasing vast quantities of carbon dioxide, increasing the greenhouse effect. It may not take much to destabilize the Earth's climate, to convert this heaven, our only home in the cosmos, into a kind of hell.

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Monday, December 14, 2015 7:09 PM

THGRRI


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So, what does this have to do with Ukraine? If you want to talk about Russia, why not start a new thread?






I am posting it here because Russia is responsible for the worst of what is going on in the Ukraine. That and because of why you started this thread. To portray Ukraine negatively. So, who is in worse shape?

Russia is bracing for $30 oil in 2016

"Everything indicates that low oil prices are likely to dominate next year. And it is possible that at some periods [the oil price] will be $30 per barrel," Siluanov was quoted as saying by Russian state-run news agencies.

That would spell more pain for Russia. Oil and gas exports make up almost half of government revenue.

The Russian economy took another slide in the third quarter, shrinking by 4.1% compared to the same period last year.

The 60% collapse in oil prices since the middle of 2014 made the situation much worse. Russia is heavily dependent on its oil riches -- a large portion of government revenue comes from oil and gas exports.

The ruble has lost half its value against the dollar since the start of 2014, and inflation has soared.

The International Monetary Fund expects Russian GDP will shrink by 3.8% this year and by another 0.6% in 2016. Meanwhile, it estimates that inflation will hit 15% this year, and average 8.6% in 2016, wreaking havoc on people's budgets.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/12/news/economy/russia-economy-gdp-q3/?ii
d=EL




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Saturday, December 26, 2015 10:58 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


How did he rig the last election?


You set up a thread to discuss the Syrian and Ukrainian elections not one month ago. I guess discussion on Yanukovich rigging elections wasn't what you wanted to hear. Let me post it for you again:

Quote:
KPO:

"Compare that with Yanukovich's track record of holding elections - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20120888

The OSCE said the elections "were marked by the abuse of state resources, lack of transparency of campaign and party financing and the lack of balanced media coverage", and were a backwards step for democracy after the 2010 election held by the previous pro-Western government that was recognised as free and fair. "



Quote:
Were the elections to be held under international observation?


The 2012 elections were held under international observation, it didn't stop Yanukovich rigging them.

Quote:
And the NEXT elections - which bypassed a significant number of Ukrainians .... were so much fairer!


Yes that's right, the OSCE said exactly that! But you're right to condemn the Russians and the separatists for thwarting democratic elections in the areas they occupied. The human rights situations in those eastern territories is very bleak by all accounts, including the UN's.


Now, back to the evidence you can't provide:

Signy: Where is the evidence for this happening in Kiev on Feb 21st 2014:


"a sudden decisive exercise of force in politics; especially: the violent overthrow or alteration of an existing government by a small group"

"the sudden and illegal seizure of a state,usually [but not always- SIGNY] instigated by a small group"

"A quick and decisive extra-legal seizure of governmental power by a relatively small but highly organized group of political or military leaders, typically by means of the unexpected arrest or assassination of the incumbent chief executive and his principal supporters within the government."


And kiki, didn't you have evidence of a coup as well? Armed men storming Yanukovich's residence?

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, December 22, 2015 11:36 PM


1KIKI

Today, scientists sound the alarm on other environmental dangers. Vested interests still hire their own scientists to confuse the issue. But in the end, nature will not be fooled. Neil deGrasse Tyson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20120888

The OSCE said the elections "were marked by the abuse of state resources, lack of transparency of campaign and party financing and the lack of balanced media coverage", and were a backwards step for democracy after the 2010 election held by the previous pro-Western government that was recognised as free and fair. "

The article goes on to say
Two international observer missions gave much more positive assessments than the OSCE's.
The 56 members of the European Academy for Elections Observation, most of whom are European Parliament members, said the vote was held "in compliance with democratic norms". They called it "a good election, not perfect but clearly acceptable".
Observers from the ex-Soviet countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) called the election "transparent and democratic".

Now, none of these reports is linked in the article (for SHAME!! BBC, it's the easiest thing in the world to do given your resources and that reporting the news IS YOUR JOB).

OSCE: http://www.osce.org/odihr/96675?download=true
EAEO: http://www.eaeo.eu/francais/wordpress/?p=160
CIS: http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/82911864/cis-emo-finds-ukra
ines-parliamentary-elections-transparent

it didn't stop Yanukovich rigging them.

And here's where you - yet AGAIN! - cherry pick the small bit out of the article you yourself reference, and exclude the OTHER facts that it ALSO contained that would disprove your argument: for example, that two other international observer missions called it a good election.

FROM HERE
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=57708&p=2

And kiki, didn't you have evidence of a coup as well? Armed men storming Yanukovich's residence?

Actually, I didn't say 'STORMING'. So nice of you to put words in my mouth - AGAIN!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-02-28/ukraine-minister-accuses-russia-
of-armed-invasion/5291986
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10657109/Vikt
or-Yanukovych-leaves-behind-palace-monument-to-greed-and-corruption.html

So, back to the question at hand - with a democratic process in place and early elections scheduled - how do you justify a violent NON-DEMOCRATIC coup?

--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

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Saturday, January 2, 2016 12:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I've not had time to dig deep into the accusations that Kiev and Novorossia are tossing at each other, each claims "the other" is planning a major offensive, and both seem to be focused on Mariupol. Both Kiev and Novorossia seem to think that the plan is for Kiev to take Mariupol. Huh? I thought that was already under control of western Ukraine!

Kiev is shelling eastern Ukraine (again) and (as usual) OSCE observers observe nothing.

Russia, I read several months back, is giving everyone in Novorossia Russian passports. The process is due to be complete by February. Despite its importance, I've only read one article about that and have not had time to pursue it. But should that occur, that technically makes Novorossians citizens of Russia, does it not? And therefore, Russia could claim to be protecting its citizens if it takes direct military action in Novorossia, correct?

Ukraine is experiencing 40+% inflation. The most important ECONOMIC action that occurred is that Kiev officially implemented the EU trade agreement... the one that caused all of this to being with. Since Russia has no interest in maintaining a tariff-free pathway of European goods via its trade agreement with Ukraine, Russia negated its tariff-free trade agreement with Ukraine. That means that trade with Russia - which up until now was still Kiev's major trading partner- will come to a virtual halt. Under the new agreement with the EU, which places natgas trade under government rules as opposed to bilateral agreements, Kiev's Naftogaz abrogated its gas transit agreement with Russian Gazprom, and is proposing renegotiation of fees. That may lead to Gazprom to stop natgas fuel delivery (in winter) but I expect they will engage in long, drawn-out negotiations instead.

The sabotage of the Ukrainian power-pylons to Crimea has prompted Russia is hurriedly finish the traffic/power/water bridge to Crimea. Crimeans voted to stop ALL deliveries of electricity from Ukraine, not just the sabotaged ones.

More importantly, here is a speculative article about the assignment of a new Russian troubleshooter to Ukraine.


Boris Gryzlov and Ukraine: Russia brings on a Heavy-Weight

Appointment of Boris Gryzlov to represent Russia on the Contact Group brings a key Russian decision maker into the heart of the crisis.
Alexander Mercouris

Quote:

That the Russian leadership continues to accord the Ukrainian conflict the highest importance is confirmed by a very interesting appointment the Kremlin has just announced. This is the appointment of Boris Gryzlov as Russia’s representative on the so-called Contact Group.

The Contact Group was set up in June 2014 as a result of the talks in Normandy between Putin, Poroshenko, Merkel and Hollande. Its original purpose was to help put into effect the peace plan Poroshenko was expected to announce later that month. In the event Poroshenko’s peace plan proved a major disappointment, amounting to nothing more than a demand the east Ukrainians disarm unilaterally and their leaders flee to Russia, in return for the vaguest possible promise of eventual “decentralisation”, with no explanation either of what that meant or of the process whereby it would be achieved.

Unsurprisingly, Poroshenko’s peace was rejected by the east Ukrainians and by the Russians (who called it - correctly - an ultimatum rather than a peace plan). However it limped on as a sort of convenient fiction until the Battle of Debaltsevo. The Minsk Protocol of September 2014 was supposedly an amendment of it.

Poroshenko’s peace plan was replaced by the Minsk Agreement of February 2015. Unlike Poroshenko’s peace plan and the September 2014 Minsk Protocol, this is an international agreement to which Russia is a party, which is incorporated in international law by a Security Council Resolution.

The Contact Group has however continued to function as the main venue for discussions between the militia and the Ukrainian government. This is so even though the Ukrainians insist that they will not negotiate with the militia, whom they call terrorists. The result is a bizarre situation where the person who speaks for Ukraine’s government in the Contact Group - former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma - does not formally represent Ukraine, but is supposedly there in a private capacity.

Gryzlov’s appointment represents a significant upgrade of Russia’s representation in the Contact Group.

What do we know of Gryzlov? The short answer is surprisingly little, though it is possible to guess more.

Gryzlov trained as a radio engineer in Leningrad, supposedly working in the same radio electronics factory in Leningrad/St. Petersburg from 1977 to 1996. Thereafter, and somewhat inexplicably, he emerged as a major political figure in the late 1990s, being elected to parliament in 1999.

In March 2001 Putin appointed him Russia’s Interior Minister, putting him in overall charge of Russia’s police. As a radio engineer and plant manager Gryzlov’s qualifications for the post of Interior Minister are not obvious. However he headed the Interior Ministry during a key period. This was the hottest period of the war against jihadi terrorists in the Caucasus and in Russia, with Caucasian jihadi groups involved in a succession of terrorist outrages across Russia.

The Interior Ministry under Gryzlov’s leadership was at the forefront of the struggle against them. More important still, Gryzlov was also Interior Minister in overall charge of Russia’s police at the time of the arrest in October 2003 of the oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Khodorkovsky - like some of the other oligarchs - had contacts within the Russian security forces. When the Russian authorities began to put together their case against Khodorkovsky it was by no means a foregone conclusion it would succeed. That Khodorkovsky was arrested shows that Gryzlov had the police in hand, and that he is reliable.

In fact it is difficult to avoid the feeling that Gryzlov was appointed Interior Minister because Putin needed someone in charge of the police who was reliable and who could be counted on to keep the police loyal in the coming show-down with Khodorkovsky. Gryzlov fitted the bill.

That suggests there is more to Gryzlov than there seems, and that his back story is more complex than that of a mere radio engineer.

With Khodorkovsky safely arrested, Putin a few weeks later transferred Gryzlov from the Interior Ministry to the parliament, where in December 2003 he became Chairman of the State Duma (the lower house of Russia’s parliament) and parliamentary leader of United Russia. Gryzlov kept these posts until September 2011.

Though less fraught task than running the Interior Ministry during a counter insurgency war and in the lead-up to Khodorkovsky’s arrest, they were nonetheless key posts, keeping the parliament in hand during the potentially difficult transition period of Medvedev’s Presidency.

They are again the sort of posts that are given to a reliable man.

Following Putin’s decision in September 2011 to return to the Presidency, Gryzlov quit his positions in parliament and as parliamentary leader of United Russia. Since then, though he holds no formal post, Gryzlov continues to be a key figure in the Russian power structure. This is shown by the fact that he remains a permanent member of Russia’s Security Council. [emphasis mine- SIGNY]

Russia’s Security Council, though almost completely ignored in the West, is in reality Russia’s key decision making body, where all major decisions are discussed and agreed. The Security Council’s 13 permanent members are the most powerful people in Russia. Gryzlov is one of them. The fact Gryzlov holds no other publicly disclosed position other than that of permanent member of the Security Council is not a sign he is less powerful or less important than the other 12. Rather it suggests the work he does is secret.

The appointment of such an important man to represent Russia on the Contact Group is a dramatic development.

What makes this appointment even more striking is that Gryzlov has been given plenipotentiary powers. This means that he can on his own initiative and without consulting Moscow make decisions that are binding on the Russian government.

All of this obviously begs the question of what are the reasons for this appointment? Whilst obviously we don’t know the full details, it is possible to say a number of things and to make the odd informed guess.

Firstly, Gryzlov is someone at the very top of the Russian power structure. As a permanent member of the Security Council he has played his part in shaping Russian policy during the Ukrainian conflict. He will be fully familiar with all its aspects. Over the last two years Putin has had to devote an immense amount of his time to dealing with the crisis in Ukraine. Gryzlov’s appointment appears at least in part intended to relieve Putin of some of this burden, freeing him to give more time to deal with other matters.

Secondly, Gryzlov far outranks every other Russian official engaged on the ground in Ukraine. This is important because Russia has suffered from the poor quality of its representatives on the ground in Ukraine. Direct contacts with the Ukrainian government apparently happen at various levels.

However Russia’s actual representative in Kiev has been Mikhail Zurabov, who is Russia’s ambassador to Ukraine. Zurabov is not a professional diplomat. He is a liberal politician and former minister closely associated with former Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin and Economics Minister German Gref. Like his predecessor as Russia’s ambassador to Ukraine - Yeltsin’s former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomydin - Zurabov seems to have been sent to Kiev as a form of gentle exile after he fell out of favour. This happened in 2010, at a time when Yanukovych seemed securely in control, and there seemed no need for someone able to act decisively in a crisis. There have been many complaints about Zurabov. He is regularly accused of excessive passivity during the Maidan protests. He is also criticised for his failure to put Russia’s case forcefully during the fighting in the Donbass.

Some of these criticisms may be unfair. They take little account of how difficult the job of Russia’s ambassador in Kiev must be. However it is true that throughout the crisis Zurabov has been almost invisible, and he does seem to be genuinely out of his depth.

The other major figure representing Russia in Ukraine - who however in typical fashion likes to act behind the scenes - is Putin’s former spin-doctor and close friend and adviser, Vladislav Surkov. Surkov is far too complex a figure to be discussed in detail here. Suffice to say that as Putin’s spin-doctor he has managed the rare feat of antagonising both sides of Russia’s political divide. He is hated equally by Russia’s pro-Western liberals, and by the Communists and Russia’s conservative nationalists, whilst being mistrusted it seems by everyone except Putin himself.

Amazingly Surkov has managed the same feat in Ukraine. The Maidan movement accuses him - falsely - of being the man behind the massacre of the protesters during the Maidan protests. Supporters of militia commander Strelkov accuse him of engineering the downfall of their hero. Supporters of the militia also accuse him of planning the betrayal of the militia and of Novorossia.

The reality is that Surkov does seem to have played an important role behind the scenes, becoming an important channel of communication between the Kremlin and the militia commanders. The exact nature of his role however remains obscure, and it is doubtful whether he is really as important as his critics believe he is. Even if he does entertain the plans his critics accuse him of, the fact he acts so secretly must limit his effectiveness.

Regardless, the point about Zurabov and Surkov is that Gryzlov far outranks them both.

With Gryzlov now representing Russia in the Contact Group, neither Zurabov nor Surkov any longer have an obvious role, and it is likely both will be relegated or - in Surkov's case - removed from the scene entirely before long.

As for the reasons for Gryzlov’s appointment, it is surely connected to Russian frustration with the deadlock in the Minsk process. Not only has the Ukrainian government entirely failed to carry out the political commitments it made in February in Minsk, but the military situation in the Donbass is deteriorating once more.

Gryzlov’s appointment puts a strong man - and one Putin trusts - in place to deal with the situation as it deteriorates. With Putin feeling increasingly confident that Western interest in Ukraine in slackening, he has now brought a tough and reliable man onto the scene who can be relied upon to shape the situation in Russia's interests.



http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/boris-gryzlov-and-ukraine-confli
ct-russia-brings-heavy-weight/ri12024


Again, I've been too busy to follow up on this, but it smacks of "Russia getting the chess-pieces in place before...". Before WHAT, I can't imagine. If the passport-distribution timetable is correct, some time AFTER February.


--------------
You can't build a nation with bombs. You can't create a society with guns.

There is a difference between THUGR is a genius., and THUGR is a "genius". And everyone knows it except THUGR, who is a "genius".

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