REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!

POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Friday, August 23, 2019 17:46
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Friday, September 14, 2018 12:54 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.

This was posted on 6 Feb. I should try to post it at top of page for convenience, since a lot of noise has been posted since then.

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Friday, September 14, 2018 12:55 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alright, so let's take a moment to explore the scenario if the Libtard view actually wasn't a delusion.

Their premise is that the real actual value of the Market is represented by Dow 15,000.
So then 26,616 is an actual overevaluation of 11,616 - or 177% of the true value. That may well be a historical record.
So if Dow goes no higher than that during this cycle, then a drop to 22,623 will signal onset of a Bear Market cycle. The rebound will go to about 23,954 - 25,285 range and then drop. A Bear Market drop always bottoms far below the true value of a stock, so the Dow would at this point bottom out around 8,000 - 12,000. The would represent a drop of 55% - 70%. Such a large drop gives investors plenty of time or range to recognize the drop and exit their stocks, before the bottom price is available to buy back in for massive gains - doubling or tripling your fund value. Unless the Libtard duplicates 2008 and keeps all their money in the Market until they've lost 60% of their life savings. So what are the Libtards panicking about? Their scenario provides the best possible outcome for their funds!

By comparison OTOH, if the Libtards are delusional and the Stock Market is the Real World, then a couple extreme possibilities can be presented.
One is that, for no reason, the current high of 26,616 remains the peak of this cycle. The drop to trigger remains the same as above, as well as the rebound range. But then the bottom would be more like 17,740 (67%) or we could hope for 13,300 (50%). The discount price for buying back in would not be as big of a bargain, plus the time of range of drop would be more brief, so exiting the fund would be more time critical, allowing for less dilly-dallying. And then the recovery gains would only be 30 - 50%.
The other possibility would be that the explanation for Obamanomics which I posted earlier in this thread are correct. The Market will continue to climb, for up to 8 years, before moving to Bear Market.
By that time most folk would have forgotten about Libtard delusional theories.

Another repost, for convenience. From 8 Feb.

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Friday, September 14, 2018 12:56 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Top-of-the-Page reposting, from 22 May:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 23,533. A drop of 1.7% today. This is 11.6% off the Record All-Time High. Hard to beat a discount price like this to buy in at. Buffet must be buying like crazy about now.
The Dow closed at 23,860 on 8 February.
Dow closed at 23,539 on 4 November 2017.
Dow closed at 23,516 on 3 November 2017.

Today Trump signed the Cramnibus Spendaholic bill, largest spending bill in history, to last until September if this year, 6 months from now.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although a lot of people would be relieved if it drops to 22,623 before rebounding.


Perhaps I should point out, here in the moment: these are the days of making the largest gains in funds. Buying at a discount of 6% can get an easy gain on bounce back, in a matter of days instead of the 55 days it recently took to scale this mountain of stock value.
And if it can drop to 22,623 then the rebound can only be reasonably expected to be 5% to 10% of the all-time high, so buying at the end of Monday could still result in a loss.
But regardless, whenever the market hits the best bargain price, that is when the common trader has the greatest opportunity to grow their funds. Although this volatility is just noise, the potential for growth is far greater than days of a couple hundred point gains.



This was posted 23 March, with the lowest close of the Dow in 2018, at 23,533.
Prior to 4 November 2017 the Dow had never closed higher than 23,516.

Today Dow closed at 24,834.


The within quote was from 6 Feb. Folk can't say I didn't provide the recipe in time.

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Friday, September 14, 2018 6:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,154. That is the highest Close since January. And the 8th highest Close in history.
This is 1.7% off the Record All-Time High. This is the 45th day in a row over 25K, and 21st day over 25,500.
This is one of 17 days in history which have Closed over 26K.


S&P 500 closed at 2,904. That is the 2nd highest close in history.



Yup, as of 10 September at 25,857 there was nowhere to go but down. Yet every day since then has been higher. Which is 1.1% in 4 days, or 63% APR.

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Monday, September 17, 2018 10:40 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,062. This is the 46th day in a row over 25K, and the 22nd over 25,500.


This is the 3rd day in a row over 26K. This ties the streak of 3 last month. Only one other time was it over 26K, for 12 days in January.

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Tuesday, September 18, 2018 6:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,246.

This is the 5th highest Close in history, and the highest since January.

This is 1.4% off the Record All-Time High.

This is the 47th day in a row over 25K, and the 23rd over 25,500. This is the 4th day in a row over 26K, which is the longest streak outside of January.


S&P 500 closed at 2,904. This is the 2nd highest in history.


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Wednesday, September 19, 2018 10:02 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



I will try to notate the Top 5 Dow Closes, so that other folk might follow along.

1. 26,616 26 January 2018.
2. 26,439 29 January 2018.
3. 26,394 25 January 2018.
4. 26,252 24 January 2018.
5. 26,246 18 September 2018

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Wednesday, September 19, 2018 9:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow Closed at 26,405. That is the 3rd highest Close in history. Most of the day it traded at levels above the 2nd highest Close.

That is 0.8% off the Record All-Time High.


S&P 500 closed at 2,907. That is the 2nd highest close in history.



Yup. Obviously nowhere to go but down, from 25,857. Every day since then has been not down.


Tomorrow the Jobless Claims are reported.

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Thursday, September 20, 2018 7:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,656. This is a new Record All-Time High. The first since 26 January.


S&P500 closed at 2,930. This is a new Record All-Time High.

NASDAQ closed at 8,028. This is the 5th highest close, the other 4 posting in the past Month.



For those striving to lose money during the easiest, most predictable portion of the Market cycle, your time has passed. It is too late to sell at the low prices of the past 8 months. If you sold out of the Market today you would have attained the highest price in history, completely foiling the plans to lose money like the contributors to this thread.

If you were able to sell out at lower prices during the past 8 months, you can now buy at the highest price ever, thereby solidifying your losses.

Only last week some were encouraging you to lose money by proclaiming that there was NOWHERE ELSE TO GO BUT DOWN, although the Market has gone nowhere but up since those predictions.

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Friday, September 21, 2018 10:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,743. This is a new Record All-Time High. For the 2nd day in a row.



Hmmmm. Today was the Anniversary of the founding of the Koch Brothers company. Hmmmm.



Next week Thursday 27 September the new GDP figures are released.

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Monday, September 24, 2018 9:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,562. This palindromic Close is the 4th highest in history.


S&P 500 closed at 2,919. This is the 4th highest close in history.

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Tuesday, September 25, 2018 3:29 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 26,656. This is a new Record All-Time High. The first since 26 January.


S&P500 closed at 2,930. This is a new Record All-Time High.

NASDAQ closed at 8,028. This is the 5th highest close, the other 4 posting in the past Month.



For those striving to lose money during the easiest, most predictable portion of the Market cycle, your time has passed. It is too late to sell at the low prices of the past 8 months. If you sold out of the Market today you would have attained the highest price in history, completely foiling the plans to lose money like the contributors to this thread.

If you were able to sell out at lower prices during the past 8 months, you can now buy at the highest price ever, thereby solidifying your losses.

Only last week some were encouraging you to lose money by proclaiming that there was NOWHERE ELSE TO GO BUT DOWN, although the Market has gone nowhere but up since those predictions.



You sound to me just like those people who told me that I was foolishly wasting my money on rent and that buying a house (at all time high prices) was the best investment anyone could make. Those that didn't outright lose their houses are to this day paying off a much larger monthly mortgage payment than they would have if they had waited for the crash.

I'll start putting money in to a 401k soon since I get a 100% match on 5% after one year. My immediate 100% return will sit there in the least aggressive account possible and I should have a big lump sum to throw in there after the DOW crashes.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, September 25, 2018 8:17 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,492. This is the 5th highest close in history.

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 1:37 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Friday at 26,458. This is the 6th highest in history.

Next week CBO releases monthly Budget update on 5 Oct, and BLS releases Unemployment Report on 7 Oct.

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 1:40 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 26,656. This is a new Record All-Time High. The first since 26 January.


S&P500 closed at 2,930. This is a new Record All-Time High.

NASDAQ closed at 8,028. This is the 5th highest close, the other 4 posting in the past Month.



For those striving to lose money during the easiest, most predictable portion of the Market cycle, your time has passed. It is too late to sell at the low prices of the past 8 months. If you sold out of the Market today you would have attained the highest price in history, completely foiling the plans to lose money like the contributors to this thread.

If you were able to sell out at lower prices during the past 8 months, you can now buy at the highest price ever, thereby solidifying your losses.

Only last week some were encouraging you to lose money by proclaiming that there was NOWHERE ELSE TO GO BUT DOWN, although the Market has gone nowhere but up since those predictions.


You sound to me just like those people who told me that I was foolishly wasting my money on rent and that buying a house (at all time high prices) was the best investment anyone could make. Those that didn't outright lose their houses are to this day paying off a much larger monthly mortgage payment than they would have if they had waited for the crash.

I'll start putting money in to a 401k soon since I get a 100% match on 5% after one year. My immediate 100% return will sit there in the least aggressive account possible and I should have a big lump sum to throw in there after the DOW crashes.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 7:32 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.



I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 3:27 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.


I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are you doing Tax Deferred? You will want to evaluate which funds in your investment family drop with the Market, and which do less so. You want to know this from evaluation before any drop happens, not during or after. Some investment families do not allow any diversity, so there is no point in using those families.

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 8:51 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.


I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are you doing Tax Deferred? You will want to evaluate which funds in your investment family drop with the Market, and which do less so. You want to know this from evaluation before any drop happens, not during or after. Some investment families do not allow any diversity, so there is no point in using those families.



I believe that my only option will be tax deferred.

I haven't looked at what options are available to me in the company's 401k plan. I'm sure they can vary pretty wildly from company to company. Where i used to work they had 3 or 4 levels of investment, varying from pretty mild to very aggressive. But they also had another option which was essentially a money market account that bared almost 0% interest. This was the fund that we were forced into after the company buyout only months before the stock market crash that saved me from losing my ass right before I got laid off.

I'm hoping my company has a fund like that where I can let this sit until the market crashes again. It's too late for me to buy in now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, September 30, 2018 10:39 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.


I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are you doing Tax Deferred? You will want to evaluate which funds in your investment family drop with the Market, and which do less so. You want to know this from evaluation before any drop happens, not during or after. Some investment families do not allow any diversity, so there is no point in using those families.


I believe that my only option will be tax deferred.

I haven't looked at what options are available to me in the company's 401k plan. I'm sure they can vary pretty wildly from company to company. Where i used to work they had 3 or 4 levels of investment, varying from pretty mild to very aggressive. But they also had another option which was essentially a money market account that bared almost 0% interest. This was the fund that we were forced into after the company buyout only months before the stock market crash that saved me from losing my ass right before I got laid off.

I'm hoping my company has a fund like that where I can let this sit until the market crashes again. It's too late for me to buy in now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This would be great, but you should not assume it to be the case. One place I recently worked had the Union get rid of these runds, ensuring that every employee would lose money from their Retirement Funds, regardless of which fund you chose.

BTW, Tax Deferred is best, unless you are wealthy or have some similar unusual situation.

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Monday, October 1, 2018 7:33 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.


I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are you doing Tax Deferred? You will want to evaluate which funds in your investment family drop with the Market, and which do less so. You want to know this from evaluation before any drop happens, not during or after. Some investment families do not allow any diversity, so there is no point in using those families.


I believe that my only option will be tax deferred.

I haven't looked at what options are available to me in the company's 401k plan. I'm sure they can vary pretty wildly from company to company. Where i used to work they had 3 or 4 levels of investment, varying from pretty mild to very aggressive. But they also had another option which was essentially a money market account that bared almost 0% interest. This was the fund that we were forced into after the company buyout only months before the stock market crash that saved me from losing my ass right before I got laid off.

I'm hoping my company has a fund like that where I can let this sit until the market crashes again. It's too late for me to buy in now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This would be great, but you should not assume it to be the case. One place I recently worked had the Union get rid of these runds, ensuring that every employee would lose money from their Retirement Funds, regardless of which fund you chose.

BTW, Tax Deferred is best, unless you are wealthy or have some similar unusual situation.



I don't assume anything when it comes to my money. :)

I can't really say anything about my options right now, but I'm going to look into it this week. I have 2 or 3 more pay periods before I'd be getting the match, but I'm considering putting the rest of my paychecks directly into it for the year since I won't need them. That way I could avoid the federal taxes for as much as possible above 12k, and that's 3.5% less state taxes I'd be paying on whatever I put in there too... but only if there is one of those safe places to put them that would be untouched by anything that happened in the market.

My plan would be to have as much in there as possible whenever the market takes a crap. I'm actually hoping that it stays up for a long time. Maybe 6 years if Trump gets reelected? The longer we go before the inevitable crash, the more I could have in there to buy low is the way I figure it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, October 1, 2018 4:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,651. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.


S&P 500 closed at 2,924. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.

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Monday, October 1, 2018 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
If that is what it sounds like, you are not hearing very well.


I can't wait. One more month and I get to start putting some money in there and getting that 5% match. Hell... I might even start maxing out my contributions regardless and just let it sit in what would essentially be a 2nd checking account until the market crashes and I can buy at the bottom.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Are you doing Tax Deferred? You will want to evaluate which funds in your investment family drop with the Market, and which do less so. You want to know this from evaluation before any drop happens, not during or after. Some investment families do not allow any diversity, so there is no point in using those families.


I believe that my only option will be tax deferred.

I haven't looked at what options are available to me in the company's 401k plan. I'm sure they can vary pretty wildly from company to company. Where i used to work they had 3 or 4 levels of investment, varying from pretty mild to very aggressive. But they also had another option which was essentially a money market account that bared almost 0% interest. This was the fund that we were forced into after the company buyout only months before the stock market crash that saved me from losing my ass right before I got laid off.

I'm hoping my company has a fund like that where I can let this sit until the market crashes again. It's too late for me to buy in now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This would be great, but you should not assume it to be the case. One place I recently worked had the Union get rid of these runds, ensuring that every employee would lose money from their Retirement Funds, regardless of which fund you chose.

BTW, Tax Deferred is best, unless you are wealthy or have some similar unusual situation.


I don't assume anything when it comes to my money. :)

I can't really say anything about my options right now, but I'm going to look into it this week. I have 2 or 3 more pay periods before I'd be getting the match, but I'm considering putting the rest of my paychecks directly into it for the year since I won't need them. That way I could avoid the federal taxes for as much as possible above 12k, and that's 3.5% less state taxes I'd be paying on whatever I put in there too... but only if there is one of those safe places to put them that would be untouched by anything that happened in the market.

My plan would be to have as much in there as possible whenever the market takes a crap. I'm actually hoping that it stays up for a long time. Maybe 6 years if Trump gets reelected? The longer we go before the inevitable crash, the more I could have in there to buy low is the way I figure it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.

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Monday, October 1, 2018 9:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.



You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, October 1, 2018 9:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.


You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

This is not my answer, but you made me recall a question. Does the match apply only to 5% of your base pay (40 hours), or to 5% or all your pay, including OT? This is different between companies.

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Monday, October 1, 2018 10:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is not my answer, but you made me recall a question. Does the match apply only to 5% of your base pay (40 hours), or to 5% or all your pay, including OT? This is different between companies.



I don't know for sure, but I've never felt the need to look into that. As is typical with the retail sector, except for extremely rare cases, OT is highly frowned upon and could be grounds for termination if you do it too often. I doubt I'll ever see any OT pay.

I'm going to assume that the 5% would be for OT pay as well. The only reason I'm going to make that assumption is that this doesn't really effect me. If I ever did get any, it would be such a small amount that 5% of it would be negligible.




So.... you said that this wasn't your answer. Could you clarify your question for me so I can answer it?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018 4:13 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 26,651. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.


S&P 500 closed at 2,924. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.



I conjure that this continuing run plus the pillaging of the US (our) treasury, is why that fat pumpkin is still in office.

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018 5:30 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 26,651. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.


S&P 500 closed at 2,924. That is the 3rd highest Close in history.



I conjure that this continuing run plus the pillaging of the US (our) treasury, is why that fat pumpkin is still in office.



Pillaging of what? There hasn't been anything in the treasury for 3 decades now.

If you're referring to additional national deficit, he is on pace to be a close runner up to Obama, which is very unfortunate for all of us.

One or two more administrations and you'll be able to buy more with monopoly money than the USD.

Might want to start investing now: https://www.ebay.com/itm/Hasbro-Monopoly-Money-1-Package/263943674416?
hash=item3d7444da30


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018 9:48 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is not my answer, but you made me recall a question. Does the match apply only to 5% of your base pay (40 hours), or to 5% or all your pay, including OT? This is different between companies.



I don't know for sure, but I've never felt the need to look into that. As is typical with the retail sector, except for extremely rare cases, OT is highly frowned upon and could be grounds for termination if you do it too often. I doubt I'll ever see any OT pay.

I'm going to assume that the 5% would be for OT pay as well. The only reason I'm going to make that assumption is that this doesn't really effect me. If I ever did get any, it would be such a small amount that 5% of it would be negligible.




So.... you said that this wasn't your answer. Could you clarify your question for me so I can answer it?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I should be able to reply adequately tonight.

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Tuesday, October 2, 2018 4:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,773. That is a new Record All-Time High.

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Wednesday, October 3, 2018 7:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,828. This is a new Record All-Time High, for the 2nd day in a row.

During the session, it traded above 26,950 before settling.


S&P 500 closed at 2,925. This is the 3rd highest in history.


Just like in January, must be time to Jump Off!! Obviously, for the dozenth day in a row, Nowhere to go but Down. When we have discount pricing, it is time to Jump Off, there is Nowhere to go but Down. And when pricing is at All-Time Record Highs and still climbing, it is also time to Jump Off!! because there is Nowhere to go but Down.



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Thursday, October 4, 2018 10:28 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 26,627. That is the 6th highest Close in history.


Tomorrow the Jobs Report is released. Historically, September usually has the bad numbers going down and the good numbers going up.

Tomorrow could easily announce some of the best numbers since the categories were created in 1994.

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Wednesday, October 10, 2018 9:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 25,598. S&P 500 and NASDAQ lost a greater percent today.

Yesterday marked 19 days in a row over 26K, which is the most in history. Yesterday's close was at 26,430.


The Dow peak Close on 3 October was 26,828. So now it is 4.6% off this High.

The S&P 500 peak Close to date was 2,930.

The NASDAQ peak Close to date was 8,109 on 31 August.

If you are wondering if you can panic, we will know Bear Market is coming when the Dow drops 15% from it's All-Time High. That would be 22,804 Dow. That would actually be the most profitable scenario for Market Timers.

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Thursday, October 11, 2018 10:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 25,052. This palindromic Close is 6.6% off the Record All-Time High, which was last week.

This is the 63rd day in a row over 25K, since 13 July. Prior to January the Dow had never Closed above 25K.




I've been noticing tech stocks dragging on the Market lately. Heard a report this is due to Tariffs on Chinese products, and since Liberal Techboys give all their production business to China, they are afraid of not being gazillionaires anymore.


Or is Powell launching an October Surprise?

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Friday, October 12, 2018 8:46 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


So I started the 401k. Only what they're matching me for now until I see the match and make sure everything is set up right. Put it in a money market fund that has a .22% return over the last 5 or 10 years.

You never followed up. Thoughts?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, October 12, 2018 7:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow Closed today at 25,339. This is 5.5% off the Record All-Time High from last week.


NASDAQ gains were double the percent of Dow.

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Friday, October 12, 2018 8:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
So I started the 401k. Only what they're matching me for now until I see the match and make sure everything is set up right. Put it in a money market fund that has a .22% return over the last 5 or 10 years.

You never followed up. Thoughts?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You are absolutely correct that I have failed to follow up, yet.
The past 2 weeks I have been quite busy at work, and falling asleep quickly after work.
I was hoping to carve out a block of time tonight.

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 12:51 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.


You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I have been trying to get back to this for 2 weeks, and I am sorry for the delay. I was not ignoring of avoiding it, but would have been timed better a couple days earlier.

I will try to get this all in one post.


You will need to look for 2 kinds of funds. Hopefully you can find 2-4 candidates for each of the 2 kinds. One family of funds I looked at for friends had been reduced to about 170 funds (from 450ish), and I found 2 of one kind and 4 of the other. IIRC none of those was in the category they should have been in.

Sorry, but you will actually need to evaluate each one, I can almost guarantee just reading the prospectus and summary or rating will not work. I have found some of the very best funds in the "Moderate" and also "low" risk categories. One rule of thumb (which you need to ignore) is that the most aggressive Growth is by definition more volatile and risky. The reverse is not true. Being risky does not guarantee high growth. Some funds just lose money all the time, and only being Classified as aggressive do they seem like the risk is worth it, but it is not, there is no correlation. Once you look at they like I explain, you will find the prospectus humorous on many.

You are looking to take advantage of a Bear Market cycle. The last one was in 2008, following a peak in October 2007 and ending the slide in March 2009. The last before that was 2001, following a peak in 1st Quarter 2000, then starting Bear around April 2001, and already at least 17% down before 9/11.
You need to know how well a fund is likely to, or you hope it will, perform in the next Bear Market cycle.
Many people will tell you that what your stated goal is, IS NOT POSSIBLE. It is called Market Timing, and today's Financially Illiterate Fiscal Professionals have been spoon-fed the mantra that Market Timing does not exist, does not work, will not ever work, no matter how many savvy Market Timers implement it each time successfully.
Standard Disclaimer is past performance is not indicative of future results. Which is technically and legally correct. But you and I both know that THERE WILL BE PROFITABLE FUNDS during that time. So, do you throw your hat on the fund which failed the last 2 times to perform predictably? Or rather choose a fund which at least did well before, with no guarantee that it will absolutely repeat the performance? If you look at 5 different funds which did well during the last 2 Bears, might it be reasonable to imagine that at least 3-4 of them will do the same again? Even if you cannot predict which one will not do as well, that still seems like a decent wager.
The point here is: if your candidate fund did not exist in 2007, you cannot reasonably consider it for your use. You need to evaluate a fund's performance during an actual Bear Market. Looking at how any fund has performed in 9 1/2 years of no Bear is not going to expose the information you need.
So the only time period you are really looking at for your evaluation is 2007-2009, and hopefully 2001 as well (that time frame is harder to find, many funds have ended, and others started in the past 17 years).
So, discard any candidate which was not around in 2007, no matter how well it performed in the past 9 years.

Now here is a very important detail. You should reread this until you are certain you get it - I couldn't believe how hard this is for so many to understand.
When you look at the graphs of performance, they will all look the same.
If you look at 5 different funds all starting in 2006, looking at the graphs right next to each other, they will all look the same. The same dips there, the same peaks here. That year they all did the same, the other year they all did the different thing the same. Only minor differences in the graphs, the bumps and dips.
But they are not the same, and you absolutely must understand the difference.
If one fund spanned a 5% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will enlarge/expand the vertical scale until the graph fills the size of the graph window. If another fund spanned an 80% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will compress the vertical scale until it fits in the size of the graph window. So these 2 extremely unrelated performances will look the same on a standard graph.
You MUST check the scaling. Do the division, write down the figures. If a fund share dropped $4 during 2007-2009, then if it's 2007 value was $80 it dropped 5%. But if it's 2007 value was $5 then that same $4 drop represents an 80% drop. You must get this info to properly compare, and you are dreaming if you think they'll do this for you - they want you to give them money, not find out any truth about them.
Reread that until you are sure you got it. Everybody tells me they got it, but soon I see they did not get it.

I hope this is making sense.

OK, the 2 types of performance you are searching for. One is the funds which hardly dropped in value during the Bear Market. The other is the funds which plummeted deeply during the Bear Market.

Reminder: 2007 Dow peaked at 14,000 and 9 March 2009 was under 6,000 - a drop of something like 55% from prior peak value. 2000 Dow peaked at just under 12,000 and bottomed out around 7,300 - about 44% drop IIRC.

The first fund that you hope to use. A perfect example is a fund which cannot lose money, even in Bear Market. You won't find one like that, sorry. But if you look at 2008 and the average fund dropped more than 50% but the fund you are evaluating dropped only 1%, then that would be preferable, right? Sorry, you won't find that either. But you should be able to find a few which dropped less than 20% while the broader Market lost over 50%. Anything with less than 20% loss in 2008, keep in your pile of candidates until you've gone through them all, and can get picky and winnow down. I've found some that dropped 5-10% in 2008, and hopefully you will too. Unfortunately, if your workforce is Unionized, these are the funds the Unions get rid of, to ensure the worker gets screwed.
Keep in your pile the 3 or 4 best funds of this type, if they dropped 20% or less. The last 2 times I searched for friends, only found 1 or 2 each time.

The 2nd kind of fund you are searching for.
Big drop in value, percentage wise. I have found some that dropped over 80% in 2008. You want to identify these with the worst drops, which are still around today (because they rebounded). Even better if you can identify 2 subgroups of this type. One had a steep, surgical looking cut, and fast rebound/recovery. The other had a recovery which was more gradual.
For the purposes of diversification (not putting ALL your eggs in one basket), try to corral 4-6 of these.

You want to have all this figured out and planned BEFORE you need to know it, and have your plan in mind, and give it time to settle in your mind, so you are comfy with the whole works.

Now, how to use them.
The 1st type, doesn't lose a lot in deep Bear Market, you put your money in now. I think you get this, but ask if you need more information. For diversification, spread your money around in more than one of these - like the most money in the fund which lost the least, but a decent chunk in other funds that only dropped 10-20% when most funds dropped 50%. Remember, we cannot predict what will happen with certainty, so don't get stuck with ALL your money in a fund which suddenly doesn't behave like you were hoping it would.

The Deep droppers. When you look at these, you will see that they rebounded, most did so completely, even if it took years. This is standard behavior. Once a stock or fund price gets to a high or peak value, everybody understands it will again return there, unless it is not diversified. Mutual funds have many different companies which are invested in, so unless all of those companies go out of business, the fund will recover (unless managed badly, which you should have discovered when looking at 2007 and 2001 on their graphs).
So when Bear Market hits, and the prices drop but yours from the 1st type doesn't AS MUCH, the simple thing is to wait for the bottom, and transfer your money from those funds into the deep droppers, at their most-discounted prices.

Or, you can do it in 2 stages.
Let us use a round number, for illustration purposes. You have 100,000 in funds, and are not adding or removing any from your Tax-deferred fund Family.
In the example I just gave, your starting 100K drops to about 85K, and you move to funds which dropped about 66%. When those funds recover to prior values, your 85K will have become $255,000.

In a 2-stage approach, your starting 100K is still down to 85K. This is done. No way to avoid it, without a Zero-Loss type of fund. But you are thankful you only lost 15K instead of the 50K that everybody else did.
So you noticed some deep droppers which were steep climbers on the rebound, and you move your 85K into a few of them, when their values are about 75% down (25% of their prior peak value). Within a few months, or more, these funds have done a steep climb, not all of the way, but to 75% of their prior value, before their steepness shallows out. We are not afraid they won't return to their prior value, but the steep portion is what we were using them for. So the 85K is now at $255,000 as we transfer money to different funds.
These 2nd stage funds have a slower or delayed recovery timeline. So let's say they dropped about 60% to around 40% of their prior peak value. And now they have gradually rebounded to about 50%. But you were in the other steep climber funds. Now you buy in at 50% with your $255,000. In the next year or more to come, that 50% value will return to its prior peak value (100%), and your money will be $510,000 at that point.
So you will have multiplied your funds by 5 if that was your plan and you executed it.

Does all of that make sense?
Most of these events stretch over weeks and months at least, so it's not like you need to precisely transfer on a specific day, or track the Market Index funds every day. I used to check about once per month. So in 2001 I saw that the Bear trigger had happened in April, but I didn't notice until May. Shouldn't be a big deal.


Also, most funds have a symbol, or abbreviation, that you can use to track the value. Maybe check it every day for 10 days, or then check once a week for a month, just to get familiar. Then only whenever you are curious.

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 8:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Wow. Thanks for all of that.

My stuff is small potatoes compared to your examples. I'll be putting about 35 bucks in every two weeks with a match. Less than 2,000 in a year and I'm starting at zero.

I'm really not too concerned about anything as long as the money I put in there comes out ahead of inflation and any check cashing and closing fees when the market crashes, so with the match I'll have probably around 35-40% of the value to lose if I only put in what gets matched until then before I lose my own money.

It looks like you're right though. I don't think my 401k offers any "cash" option. I must have been confusing that with my old IRA. The closest thing we have is a fund that aims to stay worth $1.00, but it does have a disclaimer that this might not hold true. It's only around 7 years old.

I'll have 35 bucks in there on this check if it started immediately. I don't get the match until next month. I'm going to have to look deeper into it before I think about maxing my contributions for the rest of the year. I did find out that the max you can put in is only 50% of your paycheck, so I wouldn't be able to dodge all the taxes I thought I would now anyhow.

Thanks for the tips and I will be referencing this post when I do my research.



Oh... and yes. I do understand what you're talking about with the graphs. I'm sure I would have figured that out on my own when looking into them, but thanks for giving me a heads up to look for it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 13, 2018 12:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wow. Thanks for all of that.

My stuff is small potatoes compared to your examples. I'll be putting about 35 bucks in every two weeks with a match. Less than 2,000 in a year and I'm starting at zero.

I'm really not too concerned about anything as long as the money I put in there comes out ahead of inflation and any check cashing and closing fees when the market crashes, so with the match I'll have probably around 35-40% of the value to lose if I only put in what gets matched until then before I lose my own money.

It looks like you're right though. I don't think my 401k offers any "cash" option. I must have been confusing that with my old IRA. The closest thing we have is a fund that aims to stay worth $1.00, but it does have a disclaimer that this might not hold true. It's only around 7 years old.

I'll have 35 bucks in there on this check if it started immediately. I don't get the match until next month. I'm going to have to look deeper into it before I think about maxing my contributions for the rest of the year. I did find out that the max you can put in is only 50% of your paycheck, so I wouldn't be able to dodge all the taxes I thought I would now anyhow.

Thanks for the tips and I will be referencing this post when I do my research.



Oh... and yes. I do understand what you're talking about with the graphs. I'm sure I would have figured that out on my own when looking into them, but thanks for giving me a heads up to look for it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Discontinue your small potatoes excuse.
No need to make any small potatoes into midget potatoes.
Despite what many say is the reason to be in early age, the real reason is that you need to weather a Bear Market yourself, in the midst of it happening, in the thick of it, not just from historical perspective looking at a chart - everything looks obvious then.

Some folk say the history of the Market cycles shows an average of 7 years between Bear Markets. Some say we are overdue for one now. So, at this point in your life, how many Bear Markets do you have remaining until you retire - think about that to yourself.
The greatest value for anybody being in the Market, or at least as aware of the Market as if they were in it (training 3rd Grade kids with pretend accounts, all on paper), is the experience of weathering it, and seeing how well your plan worked.
You will need that experience for the Bear Market cycles that follow. So, for that first experience, it is absolutely best to have smaller potatoes, as long as you treat the experience as if you had big potatoes.


My example was only round numbers, easy to understand, not an expected amount. The primary focus should not be on the amount, but on the multiple, the percents.
If your attitude is to not lose your money, then you will lose money.

If you get 2K in there in the next year, then multiply by 5 to get 10K, instead of getting 1K, then that will be all the more to grow or use in your future.

Then the next time, you can have a more solid foundation of understanding, able to dispute and refute nonsense from those who tell you what to do. You'll have a better idea of what to do and not do, whether you can handle whatever pressure or tension you choose to pursue.


I've seen funds with that $1 plan, all of them less than 9 years old. I would avoid them. Think about if you created that fund. You could collect other people's money, invest for the past 7 years, more than tripling your money, but never need to pay back any of it to investors in order to maintain that flat curve, and then when the Market eventually does go Bear, just say Oops! and close the fund, walking away with gobs of money made off of other people's money. I'm not even sure if that is a crime, and people less Fiscally Literate than you are considering giving that fund their hard-earned money. That is even more profitable than a Ponzi Scheme, and perhaps Legal.

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Sunday, October 14, 2018 8:25 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Sure. I'm going to take this seriously even though there isn't a lot of money in there. My goal during any bear markets would be to at the very least keep 100% of my contributions and the company match. If I could actually somehow make money off of that while I'm just starting out that would be great.

I will definitely be treating this as an educational experience as well. I didn't actually learn much while I was in the market the last time. I got in at a great time, made close to 30% on my investments year after year for 5 years at a place that was paying me a lot of money, matching 6% at 100%, and putting in a large profit sharing bonus on top of it. Then as if by some higher power intervention we got bought out and all of my winnings were put into a new company and on "hold" right before the bottom fell out and I didn't lose a dime of it.

Well.. I guess to say I didn't learn anything wasn't true. I did learn that you should never gamble with money that you need. I also learned that I'm not Wall Street hot shot and I didn't know nearly as much as I thought I did.

My extreme luck during that cycle was one of 3 major things that I contribute my current excellent situation to. Even though I was making great money at the time and I did a really good job of saving a lot of it, I never would have been able to afford my home 2 years after I was laid off if I hadn't done so well in the market.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I've seen funds with that $1 plan, all of them less than 9 years old. I would avoid them. Think about if you created that fund. You could collect other people's money, invest for the past 7 years, more than tripling your money, but never need to pay back any of it to investors in order to maintain that flat curve, and then when the Market eventually does go Bear, just say Oops! and close the fund, walking away with gobs of money made off of other people's money. I'm not even sure if that is a crime, and people less Fiscally Literate than you are considering giving that fund their hard-earned money. That is even more profitable than a Ponzi Scheme, and perhaps Legal.



I was actually thinking about this after reading your post and replying to it yesterday.

If they can't guaranty that they will keep the fund at least $1.00, then why the hell should I be putting my money in there when it never goes much over $1.00.

I've got about $38 in there right now since my check went through and I was able to verify that it is set up right. I'm going to do my research and decide where I want to put the money going forward before my next check.

Thanks for the info.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, October 14, 2018 3:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Sure. I'm going to take this seriously even though there isn't a lot of money in there. My goal during any bear markets would be to at the very least keep 100% of my contributions and the company match. If I could actually somehow make money off of that while I'm just starting out that would be great.

I will definitely be treating this as an educational experience as well. I didn't actually learn much while I was in the market the last time. I got in at a great time, made close to 30% on my investments year after year for 5 years at a place that was paying me a lot of money, matching 6% at 100%, and putting in a large profit sharing bonus on top of it. Then as if by some higher power intervention we got bought out and all of my winnings were put into a new company and on "hold" right before the bottom fell out and I didn't lose a dime of it.

Well.. I guess to say I didn't learn anything wasn't true. I did learn that you should never gamble with money that you need. I also learned that I'm not Wall Street hot shot and I didn't know nearly as much as I thought I did.

My extreme luck during that cycle was one of 3 major things that I contribute my current excellent situation to. Even though I was making great money at the time and I did a really good job of saving a lot of it, I never would have been able to afford my home 2 years after I was laid off if I hadn't done so well in the market.
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I've seen funds with that $1 plan, all of them less than 9 years old. I would avoid them. Think about if you created that fund. You could collect other people's money, invest for the past 7 years, more than tripling your money, but never need to pay back any of it to investors in order to maintain that flat curve, and then when the Market eventually does go Bear, just say Oops! and close the fund, walking away with gobs of money made off of other people's money. I'm not even sure if that is a crime, and people less Fiscally Literate than you are considering giving that fund their hard-earned money. That is even more profitable than a Ponzi Scheme, and perhaps Legal.


I was actually thinking about this after reading your post and replying to it yesterday.

If they can't guaranty that they will keep the fund at least $1.00, then why the hell should I be putting my money in there when it never goes much over $1.00.

I've got about $38 in there right now since my check went through and I was able to verify that it is set up right. I'm going to do my research and decide where I want to put the money going forward before my next check.

Thanks for the info.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Remember not to rush yourself. Your small potatoes should be able to be transferred without substantial fees to whichever funds you eventually choose.
You want to be thorough and careful to evaluate and select the proper sets of funds. Get your plan in order, get it all set the way you think it will work best for you.
You should also make notes about what your actual plan is, for you to review in the future, so you don't need to deep dive for the data like you are about to, all over again at that future date.

Your notes to your future self should include which funds you plan to use to start. What you expect those funds to do, and not do. How often you plan to check the Market - every 3 months, each month, what? What part of the Market are you going to check, to keep yourself abreast - DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ, the specific ticker symbols/abbreviations for the funds you have money in? Or include the symbols for each of the funds that you had selected as your group to utilize in your plan, even if you don't have money in them - to make sure they are behaving the way you envisioned they would when you selected them.
What are the actual criteria you will be looking for, to know when to enact your transfers, your strategy? Be as specific as you can, you can always revise later your changes or corrections, but have clear standards or milestones or events that you will be looking for, detecting. Avoid generalizations, vague description, or you future self will be wondering what you were talking about, and also almost any Market event can be contorted to fit into a generalization. How will you define the onset of Bear Market, so you are fully aware on that future date. The onset of Bear will not be so critical to you in the scenario you have stated - you won't be transferring funds at that time. But you do want to be very clear about when that happens, being able to recognize it for what it is or is not.
And then which funds you plan to transfer to for your next stage, how much for each and why, what your reasoning is.
And what criteria you will use to detect the bottom of the Bear Market, when you will transfer your funds. And how you will transfer. All at once, dollar cost averaging, or 1/3 one day, wait a week or month to see if the Market behaves the way you think, then another 1/3. Or what?
Once you lose you money through foolish or hasty decisions, you cannot get it back - it went to the other investors who bought/sold to take advantage of your mistakes. So at least have a plan, written down clearly. It won't be set in stone, and you can always revise or change, alter it. But have a starting point to use as your future template.
And what will you look for to define the time for your next tactical transfer, and which funds to use for that step or stage.
And when, what to look for, to resume your long-term strategy?
And also, what you plan to do if your plan fails, if a stage or step is missed or doesn't work like you expected.
If you want, at some point when you have adequate time, to "run some numbers" and use pretend numbers to follow your precise plan, and see how the results turn out, that would be wise. If you keep a copy of those projections, then in the future you can use those to compare to reality, and maybe what you did right or wrong.

One secret you might not know. If you invest one penny each pay cycle into any fund, then your statements should include the trading price of that share on that day. 2 years from now, when you might be reviewing your various funds, those actual prices may be very difficult if not impossible to obtain through other means, with all data being Averaged, or glossed over with summaries or graphs which are manipulated to obscure the info you are looking for.


Regarding the $1 fund. So now you have discovered your first mistake. Now you begin your learning.

I have already mentioned that if your goal is to not lose money, then you will lose money. I neglected to also mention that if your goal is to increase your money - moderately or consistently aggressive - then you should be able to at least break even, your fall back position.

You you remember what happens if you lose 10% one day, and then gain 10% the next day? Did you gain money? Lose money? Break even? What if you gain 10% one day and then lose 10% the next day?

BTW, this site might disappear any day, so you should not rely upon the interwebs and print out whatever you think is useful.

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Sunday, October 14, 2018 4:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


6ix, I am not sure if you are aware of this practice.

Let's say you put in either all or half of your regular contribution, into a gaining fund - pretend you have DJIA Index available.

Periodically, you can evaluate what percent that fund increased since the last time you transferred, and take that percent, that amount of gain, and hide it in your Safe Fund.
You could do that every 6 months or so, or when you hear the Market has hit a peak, such as this past January, and again in August.
With this method, you let some of your money ride, accumulate gains, and then tuck it away invulnerable to Market loss because it is in your Conservative fund, which you expect to lose less value than the riskier funds.
If you put 100% of your contribution in, your gains are double, and then secreted away with minimal risk/exposure. If you put 50% in each as contributions, then your thinking might be that the risky half is the matching half, and yet you still Coup those gains and hide them in your Safe Fund - thus supplementing the "your original money" half.

Some people refer to that collecting of frothed peak as Profit Taking. Which is preserving their gains.

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Sunday, October 14, 2018 4:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Double posty. Ignore.


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Monday, October 15, 2018 8:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Markets bounced around today.

Dow closed at 25,250. This is 5.9% off the Record All-Time High.

The other 2 Major Indices lost greater percent, even more than double.

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Monday, October 15, 2018 8:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
6ix, I am not sure if you are aware of this practice.

Let's say you put in either all or half of your regular contribution, into a gaining fund - pretend you have DJIA Index available.

Periodically, you can evaluate what percent that fund increased since the last time you transferred, and take that percent, that amount of gain, and hide it in your Safe Fund.
You could do that every 6 months or so, or when you hear the Market has hit a peak, such as this past January, and again in August.
With this method, you let some of your money ride, accumulate gains, and then tuck it away invulnerable to Market loss because it is in your Conservative fund, which you expect to lose less value than the riskier funds.
If you put 100% of your contribution in, your gains are double, and then secreted away with minimal risk/exposure. If you put 50% in each as contributions, then your thinking might be that the risky half is the matching half, and yet you still Coup those gains and hide them in your Safe Fund - thus supplementing the "your original money" half.

Some people refer to that collecting of frothed peak as Profit Taking. Which is preserving their gains.

Also, this practice is used in gambling, I don't recall the name for it.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 7:32 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I just noticed Dow has not been below 22,886 for 52 weeks.

That is 14.7% off the peak of 26,828. So dropping to the threshold of 15% is more than a year in the past for that level.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2018 9:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 25,798.

All 3 indices rose between 2.14 and 2.9%

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Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:13 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed yesterday at 25,706.


Dow closed today at 25,359.

Sounds like China stocks are in selloff. Doesn't sound like a bad thing long term.

And some Fallout from that Saudi Murder kerfuffle. Mnuchin cancelling his trip to Rihayd for the Saudi Summit.


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Friday, October 19, 2018 1:34 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


I'm getting more credit card offerz. A symtom uv the last crash.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com

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Friday, October 19, 2018 8:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 25,444. This is the 71st day in a row over 25K.

Next Friday, 26 Oct BEA releases the report on the Economy, with the new GDP data, estimating the full FY2018.

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