REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Dow @ 20K. Time to jump off!

POSTED BY: JO753
UPDATED: Sunday, December 1, 2019 15:47
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Friday, December 7, 2018 9:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed today at 24,947. That is 7.0% off the Record All-Time High.

It hasn't closed that low since, like, 6 trading days ago. The sky must be falling. Maybe there is still time to buy at discount pricing.

The Dow opened this year at 24,824.01. Let's do the math: up 123 points this year for a gain of 0.5%.

Super-duper performance, JewelStaiteFan.

We owe Trump our gratitude for the great job he has done on the Dow.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, December 8, 2018 9:08 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed at 24,388. That is 9.1% off the Record All-Time High.

That is the lowest close since 9 trading days ago. Chicken Littles should run for the hills.

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Saturday, December 8, 2018 4:37 PM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Chicken Littles should run for the hills.


Thats an odd statement from sumwun hoo prezents himself az a savvy investor.

You do no wut happenz if all the 'chicken littlez' run for the hillz, rite?


----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Monday, December 10, 2018 8:59 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed at 24,423. Maybe the discount buying opportunity has passed.

At least the Chicken Littles lost their money, selling at bargain prices to reasonable investors.

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Tuesday, December 11, 2018 5:36 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


The most important daily number (if you are worried about how low can it drop) wuz 23,881. It iz proof that it can get that low and evidens that it can go lower. The fact that it recovered sumwut afterward duznt really help.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Tuesday, December 11, 2018 7:19 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The most important number to watch for is 22,803.

We got a ways to go before that.

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Saturday, December 15, 2018 2:08 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Its trying!

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Monday, December 17, 2018 6:30 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Friday at 24,100. This is 10.2% off the Record All-Time High.

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Monday, December 17, 2018 6:38 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is 10.2% off the Record All-Time High.



That's not very American. I want a refund.

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Monday, December 17, 2018 7:39 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


My segjestion iz to cash in your stoks and invest in a RoGIToR. It'll be worth at least a million after the market crashez, then you can auction it off and by stoks agen wen they start to clim bak up.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Monday, December 17, 2018 4:20 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 23,592. This is 12.1% off the Record All-Time High.

With voters deciding to wreck the Economy, maybe the Market is responding more quickly than the last time (2006). The last time, with the Rock-The-Vote Election to wreck the Economy, the Market waited 11 months, until the beginning of the new Congress first Budget, FY2008 in October 2007. But that Market had 5 years of steam under it, and was still powered by 25 years of Reaganomics. But this time, it's only been 2 years since the Market was released from the Obamanomics disaster, and it can be argued that Reaganomics was partly dismantled during Obamanomics. So this could be the Market response in much quicker timeframe, the voters quite insistent upon a poor economy.

But it is still not down to the levels of Obamanomics.

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Monday, December 17, 2018 6:14 PM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Earth to JSF! Chek your oxyjen level!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/12/17/malaysia-files-crim
inal-charges-against-goldman-sachs-after-fund-looted-billion/?utm_term=.04141ba861bd


Remember this:
Quote:

I'm writing this in January 2017, a week before Trump's inauguration, feeling like we are about to reboot the
first decade of this millenium. Reboot as in the bigger bolder faster turbocharged 4K HD on steroids
with a sparkling drop of retzin version! (in case you aren't getting it - that means bad. VERY bad.)



----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Thursday, December 20, 2018 5:33 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Wednesday at 23,323. There was a 400 point drop right after The Fed announced the Rate Hike.


Dow closed today at 22,859. This is 14.8% off the Record All-Time High.

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Friday, December 21, 2018 4:35 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Calling for predictionz! How low do you think it will go?

I say 17,500.



----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Saturday, December 22, 2018 4:41 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Alert!!

Alert!!

Alert!!


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.

Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.

For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.

If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.

In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.

So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.

To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.

So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).

After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.


It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.


In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.

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Monday, December 24, 2018 2:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 21,792 after a half day of trading. This is 18.8% off the Record All-Time High.

Fell about 500 in the final 2 hours.

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Tuesday, December 25, 2018 6:20 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


A little oddity with the newz - Lately they hav not been saying or showing the number. They say how much it dropped and the % for the day, but not wut it ended at. It wuz alwayz the main thing befor.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Tuesday, December 25, 2018 7:30 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

A little oddity with the newz - Lately they hav not been saying or showing the number. They say how much it dropped and the % for the day, but not wut it ended at. It wuz alwayz the main thing befor.
NPR does the same thing, but they've ALWAYS reported that way, which I find kind of stupid.

People have been saying for years that the stock market (also real estate) are bubbles supported by low-low-low interest rates. Raise the rates ... dunk the stock and real estate markets. As predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It's hard to predict how low the stock markets can go because they're being controlled by "algos", which don't react like humans. The algos may decide to BTFD (buy the f&cking dip) or capitulate completely at levels that HUMANS don't react to.

I suppose we could take a guess if we knew how much money going into the stock market was BORROWED money, but markets always overshoot anyway, so ... down by 35%?


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Tuesday, December 25, 2018 9:27 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Why do investors seem to be losing their what-me-worry attitude? It’s not so much what Trump is doing, as what he might do in the future — or, perhaps even more important, what he might not do.

The truth is that most of the time, presidential actions don’t matter much for the economy; short-term economic management is mainly up to the Fed. But when bad things happen, we do need the White House to step up. In 2008 and 2009, it mattered a lot that officials of both the outgoing Bush administration and the incoming Obama administration responded competently and intelligently to the financial crisis.

Unfortunately, there’s no reason to expect a comparable degree of competence if something goes wrong again.

How would this administration team cope with a real economic setback, whatever its source? Would Trump look for solutions, or refuse to accept responsibility and focus mainly on blaming other people? Would his Treasury secretary and chief economic advisers coolly analyze the problem and formulate a course of action, or would they respond with a combination of sycophancy to the boss and denials that anything was wrong? What do you think? Sorry, investors, but there is no sanity clause. Merry Christmas.

www.nytimes.com/2018/12/24/opinion/trump-economy-stock-market.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, December 25, 2018 1:50 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


6ix, did you find a fund to weather the Bear Market?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you know what you plan to look for? I recently went through it with some people and was surprised how easily snookered some were.


You'll have to be a bit more specific with that question because I don't know exactly what you're asking me.


Here's what I do know.

I'll get a 100% return on the first 5% I put in there beginning in November. This match is not vested until I work with the company for 3 more years after that. It's also not retroactive, so any additional money I put in this year will not be matched and it will only be on the first 5% going forward.

I have to pay SSI/MC on every dollar I make and nothing gets shielded from that.

Limits to how much you can put into a 401k in a year are nearly $3,000 more than I will make this year.

Anything over $12k will be taxed federally at 10%. Everything over $1k will be taxed at 4.8% for state and local. If I were to put everything over $12k in there from now until the end of the year, I'm looking at a tax savings of roughly $450.


My company match would only be a maximum of around $90 from when I'm eligible until the end of the year, and added with the tax savings if I put the rest of my money into the 401k would be about $540 earned.



The EIC won't be a thing for me this year. I was looking to see how much I could gain by putting the rest of my cash into the 401k for the year, but the EIC has a limit on both your taxable wages and your AGI, and it will be compared to whichever is higher, so even putting money away will still only net me a couple bucks here if anything at all.




If you have any suggestions, I'm more than happy to hear them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I have been trying to get back to this for 2 weeks, and I am sorry for the delay. I was not ignoring of avoiding it, but would have been timed better a couple days earlier.

I will try to get this all in one post.


You will need to look for 2 kinds of funds. Hopefully you can find 2-4 candidates for each of the 2 kinds. One family of funds I looked at for friends had been reduced to about 170 funds (from 450ish), and I found 2 of one kind and 4 of the other. IIRC none of those was in the category they should have been in.

Sorry, but you will actually need to evaluate each one, I can almost guarantee just reading the prospectus and summary or rating will not work. I have found some of the very best funds in the "Moderate" and also "low" risk categories. One rule of thumb (which you need to ignore) is that the most aggressive Growth is by definition more volatile and risky. The reverse is not true. Being risky does not guarantee high growth. Some funds just lose money all the time, and only being Classified as aggressive do they seem like the risk is worth it, but it is not, there is no correlation. Once you look at they like I explain, you will find the prospectus humorous on many.

You are looking to take advantage of a Bear Market cycle. The last one was in 2008, following a peak in October 2007 and ending the slide in March 2009. The last before that was 2001, following a peak in 1st Quarter 2000, then starting Bear around April 2001, and already at least 17% down before 9/11.
You need to know how well a fund is likely to, or you hope it will, perform in the next Bear Market cycle.
Many people will tell you that what your stated goal is, IS NOT POSSIBLE. It is called Market Timing, and today's Financially Illiterate Fiscal Professionals have been spoon-fed the mantra that Market Timing does not exist, does not work, will not ever work, no matter how many savvy Market Timers implement it each time successfully.
Standard Disclaimer is past performance is not indicative of future results. Which is technically and legally correct. But you and I both know that THERE WILL BE PROFITABLE FUNDS during that time. So, do you throw your hat on the fund which failed the last 2 times to perform predictably? Or rather choose a fund which at least did well before, with no guarantee that it will absolutely repeat the performance? If you look at 5 different funds which did well during the last 2 Bears, might it be reasonable to imagine that at least 3-4 of them will do the same again? Even if you cannot predict which one will not do as well, that still seems like a decent wager.
The point here is: if your candidate fund did not exist in 2007, you cannot reasonably consider it for your use. You need to evaluate a fund's performance during an actual Bear Market. Looking at how any fund has performed in 9 1/2 years of no Bear is not going to expose the information you need.
So the only time period you are really looking at for your evaluation is 2007-2009, and hopefully 2001 as well (that time frame is harder to find, many funds have ended, and others started in the past 17 years).
So, discard any candidate which was not around in 2007, no matter how well it performed in the past 9 years.

Now here is a very important detail. You should reread this until you are certain you get it - I couldn't believe how hard this is for so many to understand.
When you look at the graphs of performance, they will all look the same.
If you look at 5 different funds all starting in 2006, looking at the graphs right next to each other, they will all look the same. The same dips there, the same peaks here. That year they all did the same, the other year they all did the different thing the same. Only minor differences in the graphs, the bumps and dips.
But they are not the same, and you absolutely must understand the difference.
If one fund spanned a 5% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will enlarge/expand the vertical scale until the graph fills the size of the graph window. If another fund spanned an 80% range during the past 12 years, the graph makers will compress the vertical scale until it fits in the size of the graph window. So these 2 extremely unrelated performances will look the same on a standard graph.
You MUST check the scaling. Do the division, write down the figures. If a fund share dropped $4 during 2007-2009, then if it's 2007 value was $80 it dropped 5%. But if it's 2007 value was $5 then that same $4 drop represents an 80% drop. You must get this info to properly compare, and you are dreaming if you think they'll do this for you - they want you to give them money, not find out any truth about them.
Reread that until you are sure you got it. Everybody tells me they got it, but soon I see they did not get it.

I hope this is making sense.

OK, the 2 types of performance you are searching for. One is the funds which hardly dropped in value during the Bear Market. The other is the funds which plummeted deeply during the Bear Market.

Reminder: 2007 Dow peaked at 14,000 and 9 March 2009 was under 6,000 - a drop of something like 55% from prior peak value. 2000 Dow peaked at just under 12,000 and bottomed out around 7,300 - about 44% drop IIRC.

The first fund that you hope to use. A perfect example is a fund which cannot lose money, even in Bear Market. You won't find one like that, sorry. But if you look at 2008 and the average fund dropped more than 50% but the fund you are evaluating dropped only 1%, then that would be preferable, right? Sorry, you won't find that either. But you should be able to find a few which dropped less than 20% while the broader Market lost over 50%. Anything with less than 20% loss in 2008, keep in your pile of candidates until you've gone through them all, and can get picky and winnow down. I've found some that dropped 5-10% in 2008, and hopefully you will too. Unfortunately, if your workforce is Unionized, these are the funds the Unions get rid of, to ensure the worker gets screwed.
Keep in your pile the 3 or 4 best funds of this type, if they dropped 20% or less. The last 2 times I searched for friends, only found 1 or 2 each time.

The 2nd kind of fund you are searching for.
Big drop in value, percentage wise. I have found some that dropped over 80% in 2008. You want to identify these with the worst drops, which are still around today (because they rebounded). Even better if you can identify 2 subgroups of this type. One had a steep, surgical looking cut, and fast rebound/recovery. The other had a recovery which was more gradual.
For the purposes of diversification (not putting ALL your eggs in one basket), try to corral 4-6 of these.

You want to have all this figured out and planned BEFORE you need to know it, and have your plan in mind, and give it time to settle in your mind, so you are comfy with the whole works.

Now, how to use them.
The 1st type, doesn't lose a lot in deep Bear Market, you put your money in now. I think you get this, but ask if you need more information. For diversification, spread your money around in more than one of these - like the most money in the fund which lost the least, but a decent chunk in other funds that only dropped 10-20% when most funds dropped 50%. Remember, we cannot predict what will happen with certainty, so don't get stuck with ALL your money in a fund which suddenly doesn't behave like you were hoping it would.

The Deep droppers. When you look at these, you will see that they rebounded, most did so completely, even if it took years. This is standard behavior. Once a stock or fund price gets to a high or peak value, everybody understands it will again return there, unless it is not diversified. Mutual funds have many different companies which are invested in, so unless all of those companies go out of business, the fund will recover (unless managed badly, which you should have discovered when looking at 2007 and 2001 on their graphs).
So when Bear Market hits, and the prices drop but yours from the 1st type doesn't AS MUCH, the simple thing is to wait for the bottom, and transfer your money from those funds into the deep droppers, at their most-discounted prices.

Or, you can do it in 2 stages.
Let us use a round number, for illustration purposes. You have 100,000 in funds, and are not adding or removing any from your Tax-deferred fund Family.
In the example I just gave, your starting 100K drops to about 85K, and you move to funds which dropped about 66%. When those funds recover to prior values, your 85K will have become $255,000.

In a 2-stage approach, your starting 100K is still down to 85K. This is done. No way to avoid it, without a Zero-Loss type of fund. But you are thankful you only lost 15K instead of the 50K that everybody else did.
So you noticed some deep droppers which were steep climbers on the rebound, and you move your 85K into a few of them, when their values are about 75% down (25% of their prior peak value). Within a few months, or more, these funds have done a steep climb, not all of the way, but to 75% of their prior value, before their steepness shallows out. We are not afraid they won't return to their prior value, but the steep portion is what we were using them for. So the 85K is now at $255,000 as we transfer money to different funds.
These 2nd stage funds have a slower or delayed recovery timeline. So let's say they dropped about 60% to around 40% of their prior peak value. And now they have gradually rebounded to about 50%. But you were in the other steep climber funds. Now you buy in at 50% with your $255,000. In the next year or more to come, that 50% value will return to its prior peak value (100%), and your money will be $510,000 at that point.
So you will have multiplied your funds by 5 if that was your plan and you executed it.

Does all of that make sense?
Most of these events stretch over weeks and months at least, so it's not like you need to precisely transfer on a specific day, or track the Market Index funds every day. I used to check about once per month. So in 2001 I saw that the Bear trigger had happened in April, but I didn't notice until May. Shouldn't be a big deal.


Also, most funds have a symbol, or abbreviation, that you can use to track the value. Maybe check it every day for 10 days, or then check once a week for a month, just to get familiar. Then only whenever you are curious.



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Tuesday, December 25, 2018 5:06 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


JSF, I understand what you're saying: You need to "time the market" and pick the fast-risers and then switch to the "slow risers" after having make your investment at or near bottom.

Just a couple of comments and questions- wondering about your response.

1) Why pick a fund that will drop "only" 15% when you can have your $$$ in a guaranteed account that will lose no money at all? May as well have your money is a bank account which will only lose about 2% per year (inflation) and then buy stocks at an opportune time.

2) The stocks that I thought about buying the last financial lockup were bank stocks, since they took a real beating. Any reason not to buy bank stocks again?

3) These cycles have a tendency to run for 15 years. So the drop will be sudden but the rise will overall be much slower. A doubling or tripling of value over 15 years is great, but it's still only 10-15% per year ... which is great(!) but needs to be kept in perspective. So don't expect to double your money in three years. Agreed?

4) There are other investment classes "out there" besides stocks, including bonds, real estate/rental property/ farmland, currencies, precious metals, and commodities. (At this point I would not recommend buying stocks, real estate, or bonds until after a significant correction.)

I worry that we may not be seeing a "usual" stock market crash but that we may be moving into an entirely different investment realm of currency crisis, which will be signalled by a yield inversion. PHYSICAL DELIVERED GOLD (not "paper gold" or gold mining stocks) is the normal safe-haven for a currency crisis, but purchasing depressed actual foreign currency/bonds (eg Turkish lira/bonds) may be a good alternate strategy. Thoughts?

5) You seem reluctant to name funds names. It sure would be nice if you could let us in on the actual results of all of that research!



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 3:56 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JSF, I understand what you're saying: You need to "time the market" and pick the fast-risers and then switch to the "slow risers" after having make your investment at or near bottom.

Just a couple of comments and questions- wondering about your response.

1) Why pick a fund that will drop "only" 15% when you can have your $$$ in a guaranteed account that will lose no money at all? May as well have your money is a bank account which will only lose about 2% per year (inflation) and then buy stocks at an opportune time.

2) The stocks that I thought about buying the last financial lockup were bank stocks, since they took a real beating. Any reason not to buy bank stocks again?

3) These cycles have a tendency to run for 15 years. So the drop will be sudden but the rise will overall be much slower. A doubling or tripling of value over 15 years is great, but it's still only 10-15% per year ... which is great(!) but needs to be kept in perspective. So don't expect to double your money in three years. Agreed?

4) There are other investment classes "out there" besides stocks, including bonds, real estate/rental property/ farmland, currencies, precious metals, and commodities. (At this point I would not recommend buying stocks, real estate, or bonds until after a significant correction.)

I worry that we may not be seeing a "usual" stock market crash but that we may be moving into an entirely different investment realm of currency crisis, which will be signalled by a yield inversion. PHYSICAL DELIVERED GOLD (not "paper gold" or gold mining stocks) is the normal safe-haven for a currency crisis, but purchasing depressed actual foreign currency/bonds (eg Turkish lira/bonds) may be a good alternate strategy. Thoughts?

5) You seem reluctant to name funds names. It sure would be nice if you could let us in on the actual results of all of that research!

5. Are you or kiki Government Employees, or is TSP your Retirement Program? No need to look it up, you would know if it was.

Most of the funds I checked I don't have the info. I might have some, from the family of about 170 after being reduced from about 450. These were from the Growth group, I think: JETSX, dodgx, jfivx, fcntx. For not losing during Bear: dipsx. Flmvx, jecix were rapid rebounders following deep loss. Ugsdx, cgtax were not available to us. Jilcx, pkc or pkcix would have been desirable, but the Union had removed them from our access.


1. Retirement Accounts. I think I was focusing on Tax-Deferred accounts, like 401K. If you can find funds allowed (by Law, or IRS) in a Retirement Account, which cost no fees to transfer among them, I would say go for it. The Fund Families giving the biggest kickbacks to companies have quite restrictive fund variety and seem heavily reliant upon lame Stock Funds.
Most companies offering "Matching" contributions require they go into these fund families, they don't just go into your bank account. Once they go into the fund of your choice, you control the transfers from one fund to another.
So naming these highly restrictive fund names would likely not apply to anybody else, since they would not have those fund names available.


2. Same as #1, I think. Unless I am misunderstanding, or you elaborate further.

3. I see many claim that the cycles are normally 7-8 years. I have no need to disagree there.
In 2001 the Dow bounced up to around 11,000 in May or June, back down to 10,000 in August, and then bottomed out in 2002 or maybe 2003. IIRC that was around 7,300ish. Market returned to 12,000 (new Record All-Time High) around 2005 or 2006, I think. So that is 2-4 years to return to prior levels. It dropped about 39%, and then gained 164% from the low point.
In 2007, Dow peaked at 14,000 in October, at the onset of the Rock-The-Vote Recession. It slid down to about 4,900 on 9 March 2009. This is a drop of about 65%. I think the Market recovered to 14,000 in 2013ish while Obamanomics labored to slow down and drag out any recovery. This is a gain of 286% in a period of 3-4 years. Then Election Day 2016 was a bit under 19,000 - or a 30% gain in about 3 Years. Then to 26,828 in Sept or Oct 2018, so about another 43% gain in less than 2 years. So the 9 year gain from 2009 to Sept was over 450%.
I don't see how I could agree with your claim, other than the 2001 Bear did not fall 50%, so mere recovery could not double the value.
Maybe you are not hearing the same categories of gain which I was talking about. Bear Market means loss, so exit to avoid loss (or get minor gains while everybody else loses). Recovery, gaining from deep loss to the same level of the prior All-Time High (this is practically guaranteed, quick, easy, no risk - except for Obamanomics strangling the recovery). Fresh, new, Record All-Time High territory gains - setting new milestones without dropping more than 15% (this is the most work, the most uncertainty, the most risk, the hardest to achieve).

4. First paragraph. Same as #1 I think, unless you elaborate otherwise.

Second paragraph. This is manipulating and finagling within the umbrella of Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts. If the $US becomes the Wehrmacht, everybody has a lot more to worry about than a few gains here or there. To envision stability, how long has it been since the $US collapsed. The Rock-The-Vote Recession and Obamanomics generated more unemployment than the Great Depression, 80-90 years ago. So is the currency likely to remain stable for the remainder of your Retirement/Life, or not? You had a right/responsibility to educate the generation behind, and clearly we all failed, but the reverberations after you are gone are their problems which they already made their bed for.



If you were trying to concentrate on Retirement non-Tax-Deferred Accounts, then I would ask you this: if you pull out 10k in retirement, what would be your Income Tax on it (likely poverty level Taxes)? If you put 10k in your Retirement fund while you and your husband are both employed, what would be your Income Tax on it (Marginal Tax Rate)?

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 4:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 22,878. This is 14.7% off the Record All-Time High.

All 3 major indices gained either 5% or almost 6% today.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Alert!!

Alert!!

Alert!!


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The most important number to watch for is 22,803.

Dow closed Friday at 22,445. This is 16.3% off the Record All-Time High.

For those who have been trying to follow:
In the history of the Dow, this signals a Bear Market.
The last 2 times the Dow closed below 15% of it's current Record All-Time High were April 2001 and the end of January 2008.

If today's Market follows the historic model, then it will rebound for a bit, up to a range of 90% (24,145) to 95% (25,487) of the Record High. After that, it will fall down, most likely to 70% (18,778) or 40% (10,728) of the Record High.

In 2001, the bounce occurred during May and June, then declined in July. It got back down to 15% (10,000 Dow) in August. May is when I tried to get out, and I told my co-workers to do so as well. That was when the NYSE was a Pit, transfers done on paper.
In 2008, the transfers were done by computers, which are much faster than shouting humans. There was concern or uncertainty if the historic several months of bounce would be replaced with weeks or even days before the decline. I got out at the beginning of February 2008. But the bounce lasted thru Feb, March, and I think April, before the decline which ended on 9 March 2009.

So, if you believe in this model and the Bear has now been triggered, the Dow should bounce up 2-3,000 points, and then drop.
If you do not believe in this model and Bear has already been triggered before, then the Dow will continue to drop another 15-50% (4,025 - 13,414 points) from this point.

To be clear, I personally have no doubt that Bear Market is triggered. The only question is whether the bounce up is about to happen, or not -meaning the slide into Bear is already occurring right now.

So, the choice is this, for those in the Market: (1) if the bounce up is about to occur, you will be able to regain about 5-10% of your prior value, before selling and letting the stocks drop in value while you are not invested in them, or (2) sell now, absorbing the 16% loss as of Friday, and not worry about regaining 5-10% of value, but preventing further loss of surely at least another 15% of peak value and perhaps 50% more (which is 60% of current value).

After the Market bottoms out, you should then buy in at the cheap prices.


It looks like the Teen and Pothead Voters got their wish already, with the Market not waiting too long to respond.


In the past year, Dow has not closed below 23,500. Has not closed below 24,000 since May, until this past week.

There was some concern that Obamanomics had broken the historical model.

But today confirms the bounce, and conforms to the historical model.

To be clear, I have no doubt that Bear Market has been triggered. I do not know if the current bounce will get to 25,500 or if it will last for a couple months, weeks, or days.
When Dow gets to 24,200 I will transfer out of stocks. This means that if the Market drops 15-50%, I will avoid that loss. Also, if the Market does not drop but achieves a new Record All-Time High, then I will miss out on that 11% gain. If that is the case, I will buy back in at the new Record All-Time High.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 4:21 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Cool JSF, thanks for the detailed answers.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

I just put this here for later discussion.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 4:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

That was about as useful as the BS that second posts, like they are toiling feverishly to obfuscate the facts.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 4:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Cool JSF, thanks for the detailed answers.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

I just put this here for later discussion.

I don't see anything there to discuss. A better source should be found.

For instance, my best gain was probably 12% in 2 trading days, or 4 calendar days. Completely within the Tax-Deferred environment, no fees, no intraday trading - only Close of Business, limit of 2 trades/transfers per month, just making 2 phone calls, and waiting 4 days for the results. With all those restrictions, I felt it was pretty good. 27,560% APR by trading day, 37,595% APR by calendar day.

So, tell me when that happened, using any of the useless data you linked to.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 5:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


These are better charts, because the previous one was logarithmic and visually compressed the highs. I'm interested in the duration of cycles.





https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Wednesday, December 26, 2018 11:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
These are better charts, because the previous one was logarithmic and visually compressed the highs. I'm interested in the duration of cycles.





Quote:


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia/charts

With that first graph, it looks like the foundational graph could be accurate, but the Spin seems BS. I cannot really see it well at this time. Seems the Spin is for a narrative which is directly contradicted by the underlying graphic Evidence.
In that first segment, around 1905-1925, it looks like there are about 6 or 7 recoveries in that period, all exceeding the prior peak. It could be agreed that Warmonger Democrat Wilson hampered the Economy, but the longest stretch without a new High looks like about 7 years, and the other 5 or 6 recoveries in that 19 year span seem to only be a couple years each.

The next one for 25 years, under Warmonger Democrat FDR and the Democrat Congress, seems obvious enough.

The next one for 16 years, under Warmonger Democrat LBJ and the Democrat Congress, seems to have 6 recoveries in the 16 year span. With the largest gap of 6 years under LBJ, and the other recoveries with a few years each.

The 2001 Bear Market is not even shown on this graph, and it recovered in a couple years. The narrative for this graph seems to have a conclusion in search of evidence of provenance.

The next span of 7 years, under Warmonger Democrat Obama and the Rock-The-Vote Democrat Congress, seems obvious enough. Clearly shows the recovery was strangled and hobbled by Obamanomics, although the last graph indicates the recovery only took a few years.

So this first graph of yours seems to have 2 valid spans, under FDR and Obama, with 2 Fake spans covering multiple recoveries per span, and completely missing 2001.

I do not understand any valid purpose for claiming that many recoveries in a 16 year span should be defined as one recovery.
Perhaps you could explain?
This graph might actually provide the best argument for why Presidents should be Term-Limited, so another 25 year recovery does not occur.


For your second graph, this seems the most pertinent and comprehensive that I have seen in quite a while.
See my response further below, around 9am.

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 3:21 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Trying to analyze trendz to determin a stratejy iz a wasted effort. Too many unpredictable real world factorz.

It mite be worse now. Yesterdayz big gain coud be a deliberate manipulation by Putin or sum other super rich entity.

I suspect Putin more than anybody else kuz I can think uv a motiv: he wants to help hiz puppet stay in power. Also, flexing hiz musle to see how much control he haz.

Predicting the stock market, especially if youre going by linez on a graf, assumez its just a herd uv investorz acting independently. If therez purposeful manipulation going on, the assumption iz false.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 3:38 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In 2007, Dow peaked at 14,000 in October, at the onset of the Rock-The-Vote Recession. It slid down to about 4,900 on 9 March 2009. This is a drop of about 65%. I think the Market recovered to 14,000 in 2013ish while Obamanomics labored to slow down and drag out any recovery....



HYPOTHOSIS: JSF iz about 8 yirz old. Hiz dad iz about 20 and hiz grandad early 30z. Hiz great grandad iz a life long Republican who haz been feeding them all Fox alternate universe propaganda from birth. They hav no other sours uv info. Any hints uv the real world JSF seez here iz filtered automaticly to reject or modify to fit hiz vision uv reality.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 3:40 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Jo, Putin-paranoia is infecting your every post. Russia is buying GOLD, not American stocks or Treasuries!

There are several possible reasons for the big jump in price (and I think all apply)

1) Volume was VERY light. Therefore, a relatively small number of purchases can really swing the price.

2) Much trading is done by trading algorithms ... trading programs ... developed by investment banks like Goldman Sachs. The actual software is a proprietary secret, but they not only scan headlines but response to certain thresholds like price drops, and in general they turn small changes into big changes because they all kind of pile on.

3) Pension funds, under pressure to reach that magical 7-8% which will make their future obligations make sense, put in $64 billion dollars-worth of "buy" orders today as they attempted to re-balance their portfolios before the beginning of the next year. (I personally think it's a bad mistake, but what the hell do I know?)

I think we can learn from periodicity if we can figure out what it means. So I'm just curious whether any pattern at all can be discerned from the charts.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 3:44 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

For instance, my best gain was probably 12% in 2 trading days, or 4 calendar days.- JSF
That may be true, but now you're talking about day-trading, not "timing the market". You yourself said that you don't need to be to the right exact day for timing the market; what you implied was that it will work out if you get the big trends right.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 8:31 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

For instance, my best gain was probably 12% in 2 trading days, or 4 calendar days.- JSF
That may be true, but now you're talking about day-trading, not "timing the market". You yourself said that you don't need to be to the right exact day for timing the market; what you implied was that it will work out if you get the big trends right.

This might be semantics.
When I refer to Day Trading, I am referring to intraday trading. Making trades in the middle of the trading day, and possibly many trades in one trading session. I am not aware of any 401K programs which allow this, most of these fund families seem to only do Close of Business trades each day.
Because of the words in the phrase "Day Trader" it could logically be interpreted to mean trading from day to day. I have not used this meaning. I personally would call this Market Timing in the microcosm, and would be less critical than the larger. Riding the Bull Markets and avoiding the Bear Markets would be what I would call Market Timing in the macrocosm, and is far more critical. They use different tactics, strategies, identifiers, etc. You would be correct that I have not clearly differentiated between, or specified between the 2, and I am sorry for the confusion - which I assume more than just you share.

However, going with only the macrocosm, using data which is rounded off, or only at end of a calendar month, or calendar year, is useless when looking for the identifiers. That last graph you posted is far more useful (assuming accuracy). It shows the specific dates and high points, low points, instead of the useless end-of-month data. Once you have found the identifiers, the specific day of trade/transfer is not critical in the macrocosm strategy. For instance, in 2001 the Bear Trigger occurred in April, but I was busy. When I caught up in May or June, the data from April was still available, and I could see it had occurred, and warned my coworkers and tried to change my own funds. But now, all of that critically pertinent data is absent from almost all of the links you posted, except that last graph - which seems to have done it well.

Again, genuinely sorry for the confusion. In both microcosm and macrocosm, I have only heard them referred to as Market Timing, although it would be handy if they had separate monikers. But so many mushheads deny that Market Timing exists, let alone understand the nuances, which you have clearly pointed out as an issue.


I consider intraday trading to be a different class, because those trades almost certainly are incurring fees and penalties, applicable to each stock and each trade. And those costs must be included in the decisions to buy or sell.
In mutual funds which trade at Close of Business, and with millions of "investors" involved, the gobs of transfers/trades scheduled during the whole day can be aggregated into far lesser fees (usually included as "admin costs").

I hope that all helps.

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 9:30 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Sorry for the delay, but I have completed the response of the last 2 charts.

If you plan to discuss, perhaps it would help if we establish some clear definitions.

I can start by specifying what I consider to be key milestones. I will leave blank every other possible label, in case you wish to add some.

A. The Date and Level/Value at Close of Business of the "current" or last Record All-Time High.

C. The same for the Bear Market trigger.

E. The same for the return to only 10% off the Record All-Time High.

G. The same for the High Point of this post-trigger bounce.

I. The same for when it falls again below the mark of 15% off the Record All-Time High.

K. The same for when the drop gets within 5% of the deepest Low Point of the Bear.

M. The same for the maximum Low Point of the Bear.

O. The same for when the Market regains to the level of 10% of the Record All-Time High.

Q. The same for when the Market regains or surpasses the prior Record All-Time High, setting a new Record All-Time High.

S. The same for the next (or last) Record All-Time High before suffering a 15% drop from that High. Many new Highs will occur between Q. and S.



For the purpose of quibbling about "doubling" our fund value, the period from M. to Q. would be what I consider pertinent, or even from M. to S.

I have seen various other narratives define the time spans as starting at either A. or G. These 2 milestones could be years apart. In 2001 they were 13 or 18 months apart, depending upon your source.


For the big trend strategy, the rest could be considered noise. For instance, all of 2017 was noise. And all of 2014-2016 was noise. From the 26,616 High on 26 Jan 2018 until the new High of 26,828 in Sept or Oct, it was all noise.

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Thursday, December 27, 2018 10:09 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Instead of reposting it, I have completed my post regarding the Dow Close price from the afternoon.

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Friday, December 28, 2018 8:59 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Thursday at 23,138. Gain of more than 1% for the day. This is 13.8% off the Record All-Time High.

The last 2 days have ended the sessions with skyrockets.

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Monday, December 31, 2018 4:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Friday at 24,062.

Dow closed today at 23,327. This is 13.0% off the Record All-Time High.
Another 1% gain today.

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Monday, December 31, 2018 4:51 PM

THG


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Dow closed Friday at 24,062.

Dow closed today at 23,327. This is 13.0% off the Record All-Time High.
Another 1% gain today.



US stocks post worst year in a decade as the S&P 500 falls more than 6% in 2018


Stocks had a rough 2018 — Here's what five strategists say to expect in 2019
Stocks had a rough 2018 — Here's what five strategists say to expect in 2019
1 Hour Ago | 03:57

Wall Street concluded a tumultuous 2018 on Monday as the major stock indexes posted their worst yearly performances since the financial crisis.

After solid gains on Monday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 6.2 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, for 2018. Both indexes logged in their biggest annual losses since 2008, when they plunged 38.5 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9 percent in 2018, its worst year in a decade, when it dropped 40 percent.

The S&P 500 and Dow fell for the first time in three years, while the Nasdaq snapped a six-year winning streak. 2018 was a year fraught with volatility, characterized by record highs and sharp reversals. This year also marks the first time ever the S&P 500 posts a decline after rising in the first three quarters.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/stock-market-wall-street-stocks-eye-us
-china-trade-talks.html


Way to go donnie...

T



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Monday, December 31, 2018 5:14 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
JSF, I understand what you're saying: You need to "time the market" and pick the fast-risers and then switch to the "slow risers" after having make your investment at or near bottom.

Just a couple of comments and questions- wondering about your response.

1) Why pick a fund that will drop "only" 15% when you can have your $$$ in a guaranteed account that will lose no money at all? May as well have your money is a bank account which will only lose about 2% per year (inflation) and then buy stocks at an opportune time.

2) The stocks that I thought about buying the last financial lockup were bank stocks, since they took a real beating. Any reason not to buy bank stocks again?

3) These cycles have a tendency to run for 15 years. So the drop will be sudden but the rise will overall be much slower. A doubling or tripling of value over 15 years is great, but it's still only 10-15% per year ... which is great(!) but needs to be kept in perspective. So don't expect to double your money in three years. Agreed?

4) There are other investment classes "out there" besides stocks, including bonds, real estate/rental property/ farmland, currencies, precious metals, and commodities. (At this point I would not recommend buying stocks, real estate, or bonds until after a significant correction.)

I worry that we may not be seeing a "usual" stock market crash but that we may be moving into an entirely different investment realm of currency crisis, which will be signalled by a yield inversion. PHYSICAL DELIVERED GOLD (not "paper gold" or gold mining stocks) is the normal safe-haven for a currency crisis, but purchasing depressed actual foreign currency/bonds (eg Turkish lira/bonds) may be a good alternate strategy. Thoughts?

5) You seem reluctant to name funds names. It sure would be nice if you could let us in on the actual results of all of that research!

5. Are you or kiki Government Employees, or is TSP your Retirement Program? No need to look it up, you would know if it was.

Most of the funds I checked I don't have the info. I might have some, from the family of about 170 after being reduced from about 450. These were from the Growth group, I think: JETSX, dodgx, jfivx, fcntx. For not losing during Bear: dipsx. Flmvx, jecix were rapid rebounders following deep loss. Ugsdx, cgtax were not available to us. Jilcx, pkc or pkcix would have been desirable, but the Union had removed them from our access.


1. Retirement Accounts. I think I was focusing on Tax-Deferred accounts, like 401K. If you can find funds allowed (by Law, or IRS) in a Retirement Account, which cost no fees to transfer among them, I would say go for it. The Fund Families giving the biggest kickbacks to companies have quite restrictive fund variety and seem heavily reliant upon lame Stock Funds.
Most companies offering "Matching" contributions require they go into these fund families, they don't just go into your bank account. Once they go into the fund of your choice, you control the transfers from one fund to another.
So naming these highly restrictive fund names would likely not apply to anybody else, since they would not have those fund names available.


2. Same as #1, I think. Unless I am misunderstanding, or you elaborate further.

3. I see many claim that the cycles are normally 7-8 years. I have no need to disagree there.
In 2001 the Dow bounced up to around 11,000 in May or June, back down to 10,000 in August, and then bottomed out in 2002 or maybe 2003. IIRC that was around 7,300ish. Market returned to 12,000 (new Record All-Time High) around 2005 or 2006, I think. So that is 2-4 years to return to prior levels. It dropped about 39%, and then gained 164% from the low point.
In 2007, Dow peaked at 14,000 in October, at the onset of the Rock-The-Vote Recession. It slid down to about 4,900 on 9 March 2009. This is a drop of about 65%. I think the Market recovered to 14,000 in 2013ish while Obamanomics labored to slow down and drag out any recovery. This is a gain of 286% in a period of 3-4 years. Then Election Day 2016 was a bit under 19,000 - or a 30% gain in about 3 Years. Then to 26,828 in Sept or Oct 2018, so about another 43% gain in less than 2 years. So the 9 year gain from 2009 to Sept was over 450%.
I don't see how I could agree with your claim, other than the 2001 Bear did not fall 50%, so mere recovery could not double the value.
Maybe you are not hearing the same categories of gain which I was talking about. Bear Market means loss, so exit to avoid loss (or get minor gains while everybody else loses). Recovery, gaining from deep loss to the same level of the prior All-Time High (this is practically guaranteed, quick, easy, no risk - except for Obamanomics strangling the recovery). Fresh, new, Record All-Time High territory gains - setting new milestones without dropping more than 15% (this is the most work, the most uncertainty, the most risk, the hardest to achieve).

4. First paragraph. Same as #1 I think, unless you elaborate otherwise.

Second paragraph. This is manipulating and finagling within the umbrella of Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts. If the $US becomes the Wehrmacht, everybody has a lot more to worry about than a few gains here or there. To envision stability, how long has it been since the $US collapsed. The Rock-The-Vote Recession and Obamanomics generated more unemployment than the Great Depression, 80-90 years ago. So is the currency likely to remain stable for the remainder of your Retirement/Life, or not? You had a right/responsibility to educate the generation behind, and clearly we all failed, but the reverberations after you are gone are their problems which they already made their bed for.



If you were trying to concentrate on Retirement non-Tax-Deferred Accounts, then I would ask you this: if you pull out 10k in retirement, what would be your Income Tax on it (likely poverty level Taxes)? If you put 10k in your Retirement fund while you and your husband are both employed, what would be your Income Tax on it (Marginal Tax Rate)?

I have not seen a response to my final question.

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Monday, December 31, 2018 5:23 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


You know anything about 529 plans, JSF?

I was thinking of starting one for my niece.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, December 31, 2018 5:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Dow closed Friday at 24,062.

Dow closed today at 23,327. This is 13.0% off the Record All-Time High.
Another 1% gain today.


US stocks post worst year in a decade as the S&P 500 falls more than 6% in 2018

Both indexes logged in their biggest annual losses since 2008, when they plunged 38.5 percent and 33.8 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9 percent in 2018, its worst year in a decade, when it dropped 40 percent.

This year also marks the first time ever the S&P 500 posts a decline after rising in the first three quarters.

Duh
Then Duh
And Duh

NEWSFLASH: Markets are responding to the Election. Duh. The Voters chose to have another Rock-The-Vote Recession. Duh. The last time was 2006 Election, when the Markets waited until the Rock-The-Vote Democrap's very first FY Budget went into effect on 1 October 2007. Duh. Hint: 2007 was the last time Markets grew for the first 3 Quarters, then lost in the 4th Calendar Quarter. Duh. Does history repeat itself? Duh. For those who don't understand or mislabel or lie about history, are doomed to repeat it. Duh. This time the Markets didn't wait for 10 months, when their money is at stake and the future is known, as demonstrated by the last Rock-The-Vote Recession. Duh.

You really are the most Duh-llard of Trolls, aren't you?

NEWSFLASH: tomorrow morning, if you look to the East, you could see the Sun rise. Stay tuned tomorrow for BREAKING NEWS about which direction the next morning's event is predicted to occur.

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Monday, December 31, 2018 5:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You know anything about 529 plans, JSF?

I was thinking of starting one for my niece.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Education funds have been proven to be a pretty good scam. Wisconsin has EdVest, which my mom opened for each of her grandchildren. Perhaps originally having honest intention, the University has corrupted it (they think your money is their money).

If you find an isolated, non-corrupted 529 plan: if it is untaxed, then this reduces the amount of your pay going to the Government - good plan. If it eventually goes to your niece, this is better than Inheritance Taxes.

In the next 10 years, to you trust Lawmakers to not corrupt the rules? You've heard of Lawmakers confiscating Pensions? Corrupting the intent of Social Security?

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Monday, December 31, 2018 8:02 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You know anything about 529 plans, JSF?

I was thinking of starting one for my niece.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Education funds have been proven to be a pretty good scam. Wisconsin has EdVest, which my mom opened for each of her grandchildren. Perhaps originally having honest intention, the University has corrupted it (they think your money is their money).

If you find an isolated, non-corrupted 529 plan: if it is untaxed, then this reduces the amount of your pay going to the Government - good plan. If it eventually goes to your niece, this is better than Inheritance Taxes.

In the next 10 years, to you trust Lawmakers to not corrupt the rules? You've heard of Lawmakers confiscating Pensions? Corrupting the intent of Social Security?



Yeah. I didn't know much about them. I figured they were like an IRA but you could choose a designee for their schooling.

Then again, I don't really trust that our IRA's or 401k's are going to be there for us in our retirement, let alone the value of the dollar itself.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, January 1, 2019 6:37 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Get gold insted. The money shufflerz (and that includez the gummit) consider all accounts az piggy banks to be raided in an emerjensy. Or wenevr they want really.

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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Tuesday, January 1, 2019 6:41 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Anybody know where you can buy gold dust? That's about the only way I can afford it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, January 1, 2019 11:04 AM

THG


Wall Street stocks end their worst year since 2008

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-poised-end-2018-red-topsy-t
urvy-165200988.html


Post what you will, you can't change the facts.

T



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Thursday, January 3, 2019 9:14 PM

THG



The stock market is so volatile that even big-shot hedge-fund managers are struggling
By Sue Chang

Published: Jan 3, 2019

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-so-volatile-that
-even-big-shot-hedge-fund-managers-are-struggling-2019-01-03


T


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Friday, January 4, 2019 10:03 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed Thursday at 22,686.

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Friday, January 4, 2019 4:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Dow closed today at 23,433.

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Saturday, January 5, 2019 5:00 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr


Quote:

Originally posted by JO753:
MoLoKo! MoLoKo! (greek swear word)



----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com]

----------------------------
DUZ XaT SEM RiT TQ YQ? - Jubal Early

http://www.7532020.com .

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