REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Thursday, March 12, 2020 20:41
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Saturday, February 10, 2018 1:28 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From the President's Federal Budget, FY2008:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2012 $3,307B $3,246B $-61B $17,786
2011 $3,104B $3,167B $ 54B $16,938
2010 $2,955B $3,049B $ 94B $16,112
2009 $2,798B $2,985B $187B $15,306
2008 $2,662B $2,902B $239B $14,515
2007 $2,540B $2,784B $244B $13,761
2006 $2,407B $2,655B $248B $13,061


Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

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Saturday, February 10, 2018 1:28 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From the President's Federal Budget, FY2007:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2011 $3,035B $3,240B $205B $16,955
2010 $2,878B $3,061B $183B $16,102
2009 $2,714B $2,922B $208B $15,296
2008 $2,590B $2,814B $223B $14,521
2007 $2,416B $2,770B $354B $13,761
2006 $2,285B $2,709B $423B $13,030
2005 $2,154B $2,472B $318B $12,290

We can see for FY2006 that the Revenues still ended up (in FY2008 Budget Summary) $122 Billion more than projections from one year before, which was halfway through the Fiscal Year. About an 18% increase in Revenue. The Expenditures in Reality were reduced by $54 Billion, a 2% reduction. The Real World GDP surpassed the projection by $31 Billion, despite being only one year prior.


From the President's Federal Budget, FY2006:
Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2010 $2,821B $3,028B $207B $15,906
2009 $2,650B $2,883B $233B $15,111
2008 $2,507B $2,758B $251B $14,349
2007 $2,344B $2,656B $312B $13,627
2006 $2,178B $2,568B $390B $12,907
2005 $2,053B $2,479B $427B $12,227
2004 $1,880B $2,292B $412B $11,553


Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

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Saturday, February 10, 2018 1:28 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From the President's Federal Budget, FY2002:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP

2011 $3,233B $2,706B $-526B
2010 $3,058B $2,593B $-465B
2009 $2,910B $2,490B $-420B
2008 $2,771B $2,398B $-373B
2007 $2,643B $2,303B $-340B
2006 $2,529B $2,224B $-305B
2005 $2,438B $2,169B $-269B
2004 $2,339B $2,077B $-262B
2003 $2,258B $2,016B $-242B
2002 $2,192B $1,961B $-231B
2001 $2,137B $1,856B $-281B

Total Surplus from 2002-2011 = $3.433 Trillion. The majority of the Federal Debt Clinton had left to Bush43 would have been paid off.

This was, of course, the last Budget developed before 9/11.


Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

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Wednesday, February 14, 2018 6:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

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Thursday, April 12, 2018 8:34 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Copied from a delusional thread:

Quote:

Originally posted by second:
The Republicans’ $1.5 trillion tax cut will increase the federal debt by $1.9 trillion.

This comes from Table B-3 in the Congressional Budget Office report, page 129, so far in the back that no one reads it. The exact figure is $1.854 trillion from 2018 to 2028. That number was promised by Trump to be zero dollars or even a negative number.
www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

In other words, the tax cut doesn’t pay for itself. It doesn’t even partially pay for itself.

www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/04/cbo-projects-1-5-trillion-tax-c
ut-will-cost-1-6-trillion
/


Another ridiculous post quoted for posterity.

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018 10:52 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Possible data links:

[img]]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-21/economy-cooked

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jxo1

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jxnZ

Gee, nothing newer than Nov 2014?
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2016/03
/04/revisiting-gdp-growth-projections/?&utm_source=fred.stlouisfed.org&utm_medium=Referral&utm_term=related_resources&utm_content=&utm_campaign=es



Why does all this data end at the end of 2016? No data available from Trump Time?



It's pretty common for data like this to be behind a year or two. I'm not convinced this is part of the MSM war on Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 24, 2018 11:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


You think nobody in Government knows how much Product is generated, until after 2 years have past?

Good thing nobody needs to pay any Taxes, like, Quarterly. Nor any Sales Taxes, at time of sale or delivery.

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Wednesday, April 25, 2018 1:17 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You think nobody in Government knows how much Product is generated, until after 2 years have past?

Good thing nobody needs to pay any Taxes, like, Quarterly. Nor any Sales Taxes, at time of sale or delivery.



Sure they know. With computers they could probably give you a number by the minute.

The thing is, they don't. They never did. This is nothing new.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 28, 2018 3:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Finally, now this could be a useful link:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

Apparently the Q1 2018 update has GDP at 19.965 Trillion.
The projected change from 19.177 to 20.029 for 4 quarters (0.852) would average 0.213 per quarter.
But the economy is accelerating so fast that the First Quarter already increased by 0.788 Trillion. Maintain that pace would result in 3.152 increase, or 22.329 GDP for 2018. That level is not even projected until Midway thru 2021.
This is 11% more than the projection. That 11% more will result in more Revenue, perhaps $167 - $334 Billion more. This reduces the Deficit to $539 - $706 Billion for 2018.
Which could be less than the $665 Billion Obamanomics Deficit from 2017.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,658 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,145 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,703 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,309 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $26,956 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,661 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,425 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,250 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,123 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,059 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,440B $4,214B $773B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.163 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,025B $6,163B $138B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,710B $5,939B $230B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,430B $5,733B $303B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,145B $5,514B $368B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,875B $5,337B $461B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,555B $5,151B $596B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,265B $4,934B $669B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,980B $4,749B $769B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,730B $4,592B $862B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,113 $3,542B $4,406B $863B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,440B $4,214B $773B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $1.913 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from Yesterday, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).

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Saturday, April 28, 2018 9:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Reposting for ease of comparison:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2018:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2027 $5,724B $5,708B $-26B $31,053
2026 $5,417B $5,527B $110B $29,557
2025 $5,130B $5,306B $176B $28,134
2024 $4,864B $5,073B $208B $26,779
2023 $4,615B $4,933B $319B $25,489
2022 $4,390B $4,832B $442B $24,261
2021 $4,161B $4,617B $456B $23,093
2020 $3,982B $4,470B $488B $21,981
2019 $3,814B $4,340B $526B $20,947
2018 $3,654B $4,093B $440B $20,014
2017 $3,460B $4,062B $603B $19,162
2016 $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. The GDP for 2016 are revised down to the reality of Obamanomics.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


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Sunday, April 29, 2018 7:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I'm wondering if maybe these tables would be easier to read if there were something other than a single space between cells?

Maybe a pair of "||", and however many you'd have to throw between column headers to get everything even.


EDIT:

Quote:


Year || Revenue ||| Outlays ||| Deficit || Nat GDP
2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407



Don't know what the column headers are since they weren't on the table, but the data seems a lot easier to read this way.
Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 29, 2018 2:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm wondering if maybe these tables would be easier to read if there were something other than a single space between cells?

Maybe a pair of "||", and however many you'd have to throw between column headers to get everything even.


EDIT:

Quote:


2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407



Don't know what the column headers are since they weren't on the table, but the data seems a lot easier to read this way.
Do Right, Be Right. :)

You don't see the column headers in the post above yours?

I'll think more about the vertical bars. Too many of them cause word-wrapping, further reducing the amount of data per line.


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Sunday, April 29, 2018 8:41 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You don't see the column headers in the post above yours?



My mistake.

They are a bit harder to line up because the way they look in the "Write your response here: " box is different then they ultimately look when posted to these forums. Sucks we can't use a monospace font.

It's also harder since the forum seems to ignore any more than one single space character next to each other.

In any case, this is infinitely easier to read now.

Quote:


Year ||| Revenue || Outlays ||| Deficit || Nat GDP
2027 || $5,724B || $5,708B || $-26B || $31,053
2026 || $5,417B || $5,527B || $110B || $29,557
2025 || $5,130B || $5,306B || $176B || $28,134
2024 || $4,864B || $5,073B || $208B || $26,779
2023 || $4,615B || $4,933B || $319B || $25,489
2022 || $4,390B || $4,832B || $442B || $24,261
2021 || $4,161B || $4,617B || $456B || $23,093
2020 || $3,982B || $4,470B || $488B || $21,981
2019 || $3,814B || $4,340B || $526B || $20,947
2018 || $3,654B || $4,093B || $440B || $20,014
2017 || $3,460B || $4,062B || $603B || $19,162
2016 || $3,268B || $3,853B || $585B || $18,407



Quote:

I'll think more about the vertical bars. Too many of them cause word-wrapping, further reducing the amount of data per line.


Yeah. Word wrapping would again make these graphs next to unreadable on the forums here.

Maybe I'll take the dive and create yet another Google account to put these spreadsheets into. I don't want to use an account with my name in it, and my dummy account I used to make the alternate ID I was using around here I can no longer get into since I didn't save the password anywhere and I lost access when my old computer crashed.

Have you ever used Google Spreadsheets? I love the ability to make a document and then share it with anyone on the fly just by opening access to anybody with the link and then giving it to them. They're pretty amazing considering they're free, compared to paying hundreds of dollars for a software package like M$. They're advertisement free as well, which is even more amazing.

I wouldn't go putting any important or personal information in them though. :)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 1, 2018 8:06 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Finally, now this could be a useful link:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177


Well, maybe not.

Here should be a link to the source data (bunch of Excel at this site):
https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/gdp1q18_adv.htm

https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&ste
p=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=89


This one looks helpful:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&ste
p=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=86



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Friday, May 11, 2018 4:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Sounds like yesterday the CBO released a report, showing a half Trillion dumped into the coffers in April. That is apparently the most in any month in history.

I gotta look that up in detail.

It was $515 Billion.
Revenues from Individual Income is $30-40 Billion more than CBO projected for April.

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Friday, May 11, 2018 5:51 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


This looks like an interesting resource linky:

https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2

CBO to issue analysis of FY2019 Budget on 24 May.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/5365
1-outlook.pdf




These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -616 -616 --616 --544 --544 --544 --544 --544
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -603 -603 --603 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --738
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --633


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Saturday, May 12, 2018 6:33 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Doing this again using new data from CBO:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

Apparently the Q1 2018 update has GDP at 19.965 Trillion.
The projected change from 19.177 to 20.029 for 4 quarters (0.852) would average 0.213 per quarter.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,658 $5,935B $6,148B $213B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,145 $5,623B $5,923B $301B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,703 $5,348B $5,717B $369B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,309 $5,063B $5,497B $433B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $26,956 $4,792B $5,320B $527B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,661 $4,503B $5,133B $630B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,425 $4,206B $4,916B $710B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,250 $3,955B $4,730B $775B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,123 $3,726B $4,573B $847B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,059 $3,539B $4,386B $846B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,457B $4,194B $738B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.570 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,042B $6,143B $101B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,727B $5,919B $193B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,447B $5,713B $266B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,162B $5,494B $331B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,892B $5,317B $424B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,572B $5,131B $559B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,282B $4,914B $632B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,997B $4,729B $732B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,747B $4,572B $845B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,113 $3,559B $4,386B $846B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,457B $4,194B $738B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.320 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).

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Saturday, May 12, 2018 7:08 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Doing this again using new data from CBO, using 2016 as model:

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
From the President's Federal Budget, FY2019:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

Apparently the Q1 2018 update has GDP at 19.965 Trillion.
The projected change from 19.177 to 20.029 for 4 quarters (0.852) would average 0.213 per quarter.
But the economy is accelerating so fast that the Second Quarter already increased by 0.788 Trillion. Maintain that pace would result in 1.576 increase, or 20.753 GDP for 2018. That level is not even projected until Midway thru 2019.
This is 5% more than the projection. That 5% more will result in more Revenue, perhaps $84 - $167 Billion more. This reduces the Deficit to $706 - $789 Billion for 2018.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,658 $5,912B $6,010B $098B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,145 $5,600B $5,786B $187B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,703 $5,325B $5,581B $256B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,309 $5,040B $5,362B $321B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $26,956 $4,769B $5,186B $416B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,661 $4,480B $5,000B $520B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,425 $4,183B $4,784B $601B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,250 $3,932B $4,599B $667B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,123 $3,703B $4,443B $740B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,059 $3,516B $4,257B $740B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,434B $4,066B $632B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $2.780 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,019B $6,000B --$19B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,704B $5,777B $074B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,424B $5,573B $149B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,139B $5,355B $215B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,869B $5,180B $310B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,549B $4,995B $446B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,259B $4,780B $521B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,984B $4,596B $612B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,724B $4,441B $717B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,113 $3,536B $4,256B $719B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,085 $3,434B $4,066B $632B
2017 $3,316B $3,962B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $3.530 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028. And a Surplus in 2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).

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Monday, May 14, 2018 4:02 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I finally found the CBO's scoring of the FY 2018 Budget, from July 2017. It is in https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52846
I'll add their figures in the Table from the President's Federal Budget, FY2018:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP || CBORev CBOOut CBODf CBO GDP
2027 $5,724B $5,708B $--26B $31,053 || $5,052B $5,772B $720B $27,999B
2026 $5,417B $5,527B $110B $29,557 || $4,842B $5,561B $719B $26,927B
2025 $5,130B $5,306B $176B $28,134 || $4,636B $5,332B $696B $25,896B
2024 $4,864B $5,073B $208B $26,779 || $4,439B $5,075B $636B $24,905B
2023 $4,615B $4,933B $319B $25,489 || $4,259B $4,939B $681B $23,951B
2022 $4,390B $4,832B $442B $24,261 || $4,085B $4,830B $745B $23,037B
2021 $4,161B $4,617B $456B $23,093 || $3,921B $4,613B $692B $22,165B
2020 $3,982B $4,470B $488B $21,981 || $3,780B $4,444B $664B $21,380B
2019 $3,814B $4,340B $526B $20,947 || $3,632B $4,321B $689B $20,671B
2018 $3,654B $4,093B $440B $20,014 || $3,479B $4,072B $593B $19,924B
2017 $3,460B $4,062B $603B $19,162 || $3,315B $4,008B $693B $19,120B
2016 $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407 || $3,268B $3,853B $585B $18,407B

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. The GDP for 2016 are revised down to the reality of Obamanomics.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.


For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

2017 $3,316.2B $3,981.6B $665.4B
2016 $3,268.0B $3,852.6B $584.7B
2015 $3,249.9B $3,688.4B $438.5B
2014 $3,021.5B $3,506.1B $484.6B
2013 $2,775.1B $3,454.6B $679.5B
2012 $2,450.0B $3,536.9B 1087.0B
2011 $2,303.5B $3,603.1B 1299.6B
2010 $2,162.7B $3,457.1B 1294.4B
2009 $2,105.0B $3,517.7B 1412.7B
2008 $2,524.0B $2,982.5B $458.6B
2007 $2,568.0B $2,728.7B $160.7B
2006 $2,406.9B $2,655.1B $248.2B
2005 $2,153.6B $2,472.0B $318.3B
2004 $1,880.1B $2,292.8B $412.7B
2003 $1,782.3B $2,159.9B $377.6B
2002 $1,853.6B $2,010.9B $157.8B
2001 $1,991.1B $1,862.8B +128.2B
2000 $2,025.2B $1,789.0B +236.2B
1999 $1,827.xB $1,702.xB +126.xB
1998 $1,722.xB $1,653.xB +069.3B
1997 $1,579.xB $1,601.xB $021.9B
1996 $1,453.xB $1,561.xB $107.4B
1995 $1,351.xB $1,516.xB $164.xB

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Monday, May 14, 2018 4:55 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



I found the CBO report from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.


The President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates:

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP || CBORev CBOOut CBODf CBO GDP
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 || $5,520B $7,046B 1526B $29,803B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 || $5,299B $6,615B 1316B $28,677B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 || $5,002B $6,322B 1320B $27,608B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 || $4,663B $6,015B 1352B $26,595B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 || $4,444B $5,688B 1244B $25,583B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 || $4,228B $5,500B 1273B $24,621B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 || $4,012B $5,288B 1276B $23,716B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 || $3,827B $4,949B 1123B $22,872B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 || $3,678B $4,685B 1008B $22,034B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 || $3,490B $4,470B $981B $21,136B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 || $3,338B $4,142B $804B $20,103B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 || $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,178B

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the section to the right, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,085. An increase of $56 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,735 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,222 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,780 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,386 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,033 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,738 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,502 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,327 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,200 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,214B $773B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.163 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,025B $6,163B $138B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,710B $5,939B $230B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,430B $5,733B $303B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,145B $5,514B $368B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,875B $5,337B $461B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,555B $5,151B $596B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,265B $4,934B $669B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,980B $4,749B $769B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,730B $4,592B $862B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,542B $4,406B $863B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,214B $773B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $1.913 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Tuesday, May 15, 2018 2:19 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Somehow, I didn't post this in sequence, this is adding on the CBO Update data from 27 June 2017. This is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52801

The first section is from the President's Federal Budget, FY2018. The second section is from the CBO Update, June 2017. The third section is from the CBO scoring of the President's FY2018 Budget, July 2017:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD
2027 5724 5708 --26 31053 || 5158 6621 1463 27999 || 5052 5772 720
2026 5417 5527 110 29557 || 4948 6300 1352 26927 || 4842 5561 719
2025 5130 5306 176 28134 || 4742 5967 1225 25896 || 4636 5332 696
2024 4864 5073 208 26779 || 4545 5628 1083 24905 || 4439 5075 636
2023 4615 4933 319 25489 || 4361 5419 1057 23951 || 4259 4939 681
2022 4390 4832 442 24261 || 4178 5205 1027 23037 || 4085 4830 745
2021 4161 4617 456 23093 || 4011 4891 $879 22165 || 3921 4613 692
2020 3982 4470 488 21981 || 3853 4628 $775 21380 || 3780 4444 664
2019 3814 4340 526 20947 || 3687 4375 $689 20671 || 3632 4321 689
2018 3654 4093 440 20014 || 3531 4094 $563 19924 || 3479 4072 593
2017 3460 4062 603 19162 || 3315 4008 $693 19120 || 3315 4008 693
2016 3268 3853 585 18407 || 3268 3853 $585 18407 || 3268 3853 585

The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. The GDP for 2016 are revised down to the reality of Obamanomics.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


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Tuesday, May 15, 2018 8:26 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Wow. Yesterday, late last night, this linky did not include the 2018 Q1 data, or column. Now it does. But it says last updated 27 April.

https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&ste
p=3&isuri=1&1921=survey&1903=5

Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


2018 Q1 is now listed as GDP 19,965.3


Next release date 30 May.



This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.
https://bea.gov/newsreleases/release_archive.htm

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7 loss 54.4
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2 gain 264.4
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4 gain 146.5
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6 gain 104.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5 gain 116.8
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5 gain 168.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1 gain 225.2
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7 gain 230.2
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4 gain 152.2
FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3 gain 192.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1 gain 250.6
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2 gain 253.5
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 gaining 226


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Well, one thing is for certain: OMB, CBO, BEA work very hard at hiding, obfuscating, and preventing discovery of any data that people want to find. Or allowing links to the actual data site/Table.

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Friday, May 18, 2018 2:49 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Sunday, May 20, 2018 2:03 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Well, I posted the numbers I found, but apparently some of the figures are warped. The Final figures are not matching the figures provided in the Monthly GDP Updates, from before FY2017Q2, I'm not sure why. I'll post the numbers that are the final Quarterly figures, at the end of the quoted part.
I need to specify where this good final data comes from - I think it is an Excel file at BEA. It does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Wow. Yesterday, late last night, this linky did not include the 2018 Q1 data, or column. Now it does. But it says last updated 27 April.

https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.

2018 Q1 is now listed as GDP 19,965.3

Next release date 30 May.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7 loss 54.4
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2 gain 264.4
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4 gain 146.5
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6 gain 104.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5 gain 116.8
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5 gain 168.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1 gain 225.2
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7 gain 230.2
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4 gain 152.2

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3 gain 192.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1 gain 250.6
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2 gain 253.5
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 gaining 226

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6 4.2%
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9 3.0%
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4 4.2%
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6 6.7%
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9 6.6%
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7 6.2%
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9 4.7%
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4 3.0%
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6 -2.3
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5 2.7%
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1 3.9%
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2 3.6%
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9 3.0%
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6 4.4%
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9 4.3%
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9 2.7%
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4 3.8%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 prelim 19965.3 trending FY 20115 - 4.9%

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters:
301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles:

907.6 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.

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Monday, May 21, 2018 3:35 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


https://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2018/pi0318.htm

https://bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_national.htm


Q2 portions: 05 53.2%, 06 63.1%, 07 49.1%, 08 36.1%, 11 34.1%, 12 60.4%, 13 47.5%, 14 32.3%, 15 41.7%, 16 19.4%, 17 42.6%
465 -> 930, 20108. 495 -> 990, 20168.
07, 495 -> 1008, 20186.

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Thursday, May 24, 2018 2:36 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.


The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,735 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,222 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,780 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,386 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,033 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,738 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,502 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,327 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,200 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,025B $6,163B $138B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,710B $5,939B $230B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,430B $5,733B $303B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,145B $5,514B $368B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,875B $5,337B $461B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,555B $5,151B $596B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,265B $4,934B $669B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,980B $4,749B $769B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,730B $4,592B $862B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,542B $4,406B $863B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $1.996 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Thursday, May 24, 2018 2:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updating with new data:
CBO May 2018 Analysis of FY2019 Budget.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --738
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --633


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Tuesday, May 29, 2018 10:31 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Consumer Confidence is near 18 year high.

That means higher than anytime under Obamanomics.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2018 9:02 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


New report today from BEA.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.

2018 Q1 is now listed as GDP 19,965.3

Next release date 30 May.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7 loss 54.4
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2 gain 264.4
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4 gain 146.5
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6 gain 104.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5 gain 116.8
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5 gain 168.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1 gain 225.2
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7 gain 230.2
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4 gain 152.2 +35.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3 gain 192.3 +23.8
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1 gain 250.6 +25.4
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2 gain 253.5 +23.3
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 gaining 220 +68

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6 4.2%
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9 3.0%
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4 4.2%
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6 6.7%
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9 6.6%
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7 6.2%
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9 4.7%
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4 3.0%
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6 -2.3
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5 2.7%
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1 3.9%
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2 3.6%
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9 3.0%
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6 4.4%
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9 4.3%
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9 2.7%
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4 3.8%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est2 19956.8 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


202.7 FY2018 Q2 (est)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

899.1 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est2)
873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 28 June.

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Saturday, June 9, 2018 9:18 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


CBO released the Monthly Update on 7 June.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53950

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --792
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Friday, June 15, 2018 9:59 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Note: next GDP Report from BEA on 28 June.

I keep seeing news that GDP is growing faster and faster.

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Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:00 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


In another thread, some moron is yakking about how Debt Growth under Obamanomics is so much bestest and gooder than anybody else. So I'll try to post some facts here, changing data columns from a prior post.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, Debt Growth.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt Debt Growth
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 3.4%
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 7.8%
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 1.8%
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 6.4%
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 4.2%
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 8.7%
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 9.1%
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 13.9%
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 18.9%
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 11.6%
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 5.6%
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 2.5%
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6

It looks fairly clear that the Spending Spree was kicked off with the Rock-The-Vote Democrap FY2008 Budget. And then it was a runaway with Obama.

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Thursday, June 28, 2018 11:04 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with March.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.

2018 Q1 is now listed as GDP 19,965.3

Next release date 30 May.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7 loss 54.4
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2 gain 264.4
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4 gain 146.5
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6 gain 104.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5 gain 116.8
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5 gain 168.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1 gain 225.2
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7 gain 230.2
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4 gain 152.2 +35.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3 gain 192.3 +23.8
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1 gain 250.6 +25.4
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2 gain 253.5 +23.3
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 gaining 206 +68

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6 4.2%
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9 3.0%
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4 4.2%
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6 6.7%
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9 6.6%
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7 6.2%
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9 4.7%
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4 3.0%
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6 -2.3
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5 2.7%
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1 3.9%
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2 3.6%
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9 3.0%
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6 4.4%
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9 4.3%
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9 2.7%
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4 3.8%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


206.0 FY2018 Q2 (est)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 27 July.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.

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Sunday, July 1, 2018 4:55 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The U.S. DEBT Clock shows current Federal Debt as $21.182 Trillion.
And $778.8 Billion Federal Budget Deficit.

The end of June marks completion of 3 Quarters of the Fiscal Year.

In the coming month will be the reports of GDP at this point in time.
Certain to show more than $20 Trillion for the first time ever.

U.S. DEBT Clock .com shows it as $20.138T.
That seems a very low projection.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In another thread, some moron is yakking about how Debt Growth under Obamanomics is so much bestest and gooder than anybody else. So I'll try to post some facts here, changing data columns from a prior post.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.



Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, Debt Growth.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt Debt Growth
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 3.4%
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 7.8%
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 1.8%
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 6.4%
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 4.2%
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 8.7%
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 9.1%
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 13.9%
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 18.9%
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 11.6%
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 5.6%
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 2.5%
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6
Quote:


It looks fairly clear that the Spending Spree was kicked off with the Rock-The-Vote Democrap FY2008 Budget. And then it was a runaway with Obama.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


Extrapolation would suggest Deficit around $1 Trillion for the Fiscal Year.
The indication is $977 Billion in Debt Growth in this FY.
Which would suggest Debt Growth around $1.22 Trillion for this FY.



That site also says Federal Revenue is $3.375 Trillion and spending is $4.154 Trillion, so I'm not sure where they're getting those numbers.

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Sunday, July 1, 2018 5:57 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Copied from a delusional thread:

Quote:

Originally posted by second:
The Republicans’ $1.5 trillion tax cut will increase the federal debt by $1.9 trillion.

This comes from Table B-3 in the Congressional Budget Office report, page 129, so far in the back that no one reads it. The exact figure is $1.854 trillion from 2018 to 2028. That number was promised by Trump to be zero dollars or even a negative number.
www.cbo.gov/publication/53651

In other words, the tax cut doesn’t pay for itself. It doesn’t even partially pay for itself.

www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/04/cbo-projects-1-5-trillion-tax-c
ut-will-cost-1-6-trillion
/


Another ridiculous post quoted for posterity.

This was from 12 April.
I guess I may have not spelled out how ridiculous it was.

Using CBO Deficit figures:
FY April18 May18 difference (savings)
28 $1526B 1087B $439B / $2957B
27 $1316B $965B $351B / $2518B
26 $1320B $893B $427B / $2167B
25 $1352B $895B $457B / $1740B
24 $1244B $859B $385B / $1283B
23 $1273B $971B $302B / $897B
22 $1276B 1039B $237B / $595B
21 $1123B $945B $178B / $358B
20 $1008B $866B $142B / $180B
19 $0981B $955B $026B / $38B
18 $0804B $792B $012B

So, even by using the pessimistic projections of Deep State Libtards at CBO, one month after proclaiming their vaunted $1.854 Trillion Debt increase, they admitted that they were a tad off, by $2.957 Trillion. Meaning that $1.5 Trillion Tax Cut Now reaps $1.1 Trillion Debt savings over the next 10 years. That's fully reaping $1.5 Trillion within 7 years, before the added windfall.

second might want to look at his hair being On Fire.
As hard as he had to look, Hunt, search for that page 129, funny how he has managed to avoid Real World Facts intruding upon his delusions.



Golly, I should probably copy this info over to the thread on Lower Tax RATES Produce Higher Tax Revenue.
Although CBO will never use those words, their data proves the premise.

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Tuesday, July 10, 2018 7:15 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Some time after 5 Central Time CBO released their Monthly Update.

CBO released the Monthly Update on 9 July.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54156

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Friday, July 27, 2018 6:59 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The U.S. DEBT Clock shows current Federal Debt as $21.182 Trillion.
And $778.8 Billion Federal Budget Deficit.

The end of June marks completion of 3 Quarters of the Fiscal Year.

In the coming month will be the reports of GDP at this point in time.
Certain to show more than $20 Trillion for the first time ever.

U.S. DEBT Clock .com shows it as $20.138T.
That seems a very low projection.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
In another thread, some moron is yakking about how Debt Growth under Obamanomics is so much bestest and gooder than anybody else. So I'll try to post some facts here, changing data columns from a prior post.

I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.



Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, Debt Growth.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:

FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt Debt Growth
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 3.4%
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 7.8%
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 1.8%
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 6.4%
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 4.2%
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 8.7%
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 9.1%
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 13.9%
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 18.9%
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 11.6%
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 5.6%
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 2.5%
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6
Quote:


It looks fairly clear that the Spending Spree was kicked off with the Rock-The-Vote Democrap FY2008 Budget. And then it was a runaway with Obama.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


Extrapolation would suggest Deficit around $1 Trillion for the Fiscal Year.
The indication is $977 Billion in Debt Growth in this FY.
Which would suggest Debt Growth around $1.22 Trillion for this FY.



That site also says Federal Revenue is $3.375 Trillion and spending is $4.154 Trillion, so I'm not sure where they're getting those numbers.

At the moment, the US Debt Clock site has these figures:
Debt $21.273 T
Fed Spending $4,170.6 B
Deficit $789.6 B
Fed Tax Revenue $3.381 T
GDP $20.179 T

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Friday, July 27, 2018 8:48 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.

2018 Q1 is now listed as GDP 19,965.3

Next release date 30 May.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7 loss 54.4
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2 gain 264.4
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4 gain 146.5
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6 gain 104.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5 gain 116.8
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5 gain 168.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1 gain 225.2
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7 gain 230.2
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4 gain 152.2 +35.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3 gain 192.3 +23.8
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1 gain 250.6 +25.4
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2 gain 253.5 +23.3
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0 gain 209.2 +68
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ2(20324.8) gain 361.5

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6 4.2%
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9 3.0%
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4 4.2%
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6 6.7%
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9 6.6%
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7 6.2%
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9 4.7%
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4 3.0%
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6 -2.3
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5 2.7%
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1 3.9%
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2 3.6%
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9 3.0%
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6 4.4%
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9 4.3%
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9 2.7%
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4 3.8%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
FY2016 Q1 18354.4 Q2 18409.1 Q3 18640.7 Q4 18799.6 FY
FY2017 Q1 18979.2 Q2 19162.6 Q3 19359.1 Q4 19588.1 FY
FY2018 Q1 19831.8 Q2 20041.0 Q3 20402.5

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)
361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)



902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

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Friday, July 27, 2018 10:14 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


That podcast listen goes for this thread as well.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 29, 2018 12:59 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20324.8) gain 361.5

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4
18 19831.8 20041.0 20402.5
Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)



361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4
Quote:


301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
183.4 FY2017 Q2 (new data)
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Quote:


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:




1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

One thing resonates at this point: having the data posted like so far in this thread can be important, because now all of that source data is erased, as far as the Internet is concerned, it never existed.


One point of summary is that it will be difficult to keep FY GDP under $20.16 Trillion. Which makes all estimates under-projected, including Trump's Budget projections.

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Sunday, July 29, 2018 6:24 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


US Debt Clock site still shows GDP as $20.182 Trillion at this moment.

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Wednesday, August 1, 2018 6:48 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
US Debt Clock site still shows GDP as $20.182 Trillion at this moment.

Now it shows $20.4498 Trillion.
Debt shows $21.297 Trillion. Deficit at $791 Billion.

Libtards are praying really hard that GDP does not overtake Debt.

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Thursday, August 2, 2018 10:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Although I'm not completely on board with the excessive manipulation of data, just to try to push the pretense that Obamanomics was not a disaster for 8 years, it actually does help show how dismall Obamanomics was.
I'll make a list of the best increases in a 2-year period, and also in a 6-Quarter period.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX



With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4
18 19831.8 20041.0 20402.5
Quote:


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2




Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:


1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $704 Billion GDP growth, all 6 Quarters to date, and also the 7th Quarter as well, ending with September.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 12 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

Best increases of 6-Quarter periods:

1,423.3 FY2017Q2 - 18Q3
1,300.6 FY2005Q1 - 06Q2

1,241.4 FY2017Q1 - 18Q2
1,239.9 FY2017Q3 - 18Q3
- with only 5 Quarters
1,228.2 FY2014Q3 - 15Q4
1,227.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q3
1,223.3 FY2004Q4 - 06Q1
1,222.7 FY2004Q3 - 06Q2
1,209.5 FY2003Q4 - 05Q1

1,200.6 FY2013Q4 - 15Q1
1,194.0 FY2004Q1 - 05Q2
1,191.1 FY2016Q4 - 18Q1
1,179.0 FY2016Q3 - 17Q4

1,140.7 FY2004Q2 - 05Q3




Best increases of 2-year periods, those over 1,500:

1,737.8 FY2016Q4 - 18Q3
1,683.7 FY2004Q3 - 06Q2
1,640.8 FY2004Q4 - 06Q3
1,631.9 FY2016Q3 - 18Q2
1,602.9 FY2017Q1 - 18Q3 - only 7 Quarters.

1,597.1 FY2003Q4 - 05Q3

1,583.4 FY2013Q4 - 15Q3
1,577.8 FY2003Q3 - 05Q2
1,575.6 FY2004Q1 - 05Q4
1,564.2 FY2005Q1 - 06Q4
1,563.0 FY2004Q2 - 06Q1
1,514.8 FY2005Q2 - 07Q1



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Saturday, August 4, 2018 9:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Here I'll add a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.

That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

New report today from BEA. This is for the Quarter ending with June.
Updating some figures.



This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm
Guess I need to specify Table 1.1.5.


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.


FY2015Q1, Cal YRQ4 17,710.7 17,701.3 17,703.7 17,703.7 --07.0
FY2015Q2, Cal YRQ1 17,710.0 17,665.0 17,693.3 17,649.3 --60.7
FY2015Q3, Cal YRQ2 17,840.5 17,902.0 17,913.7 17,913.7 +73.2
FY2015Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,034.8 18,064.7 18,060.2 18,060.2 +25.4
FY2016Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,128.2 18,148.4 18,164.8 18,164.8 +36.6
FY2016Q2, Cal YRQ1 18,221.1 18,229.5 18,230.1 18,281.6 +60.5
FY2016Q3, Cal YRQ2 18,437.6 18,436.5 18,450.1 18,450.1 +12.5
FY2016Q4, Cal YRQ3 18,651.2 18,657.9 18,675.3 18,675.3 +24.1
FY2017Q1, Cal YRQ4 18,860.8 18,855.5 18,869.4 18,905.5 +44.7
FY2017Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,007.3 19,027.6 19,027.1 19,057.7 +50.4

FY2017Q3, Cal YRQ2 19,226.7 19,246.7 19,250.0 19.250.0 +23.3
FY2017Q4, Cal YRQ3 19,495.5 19,509.0 19,500.6 19,500.6 +05.1
FY2018Q1, Cal YRQ4 19,738.9 19,736.5 19,754.1 19,754.1 +15.2
FY2018Q2, Cal YRQ1 19,965.3 19,956.8 19,960.1 (19963.3)-2.0
FY2018Q3, Cal YRQ1(20324.8) gain 361.5

Now placing equivalent figures in parentheses, following 27 July 2018 revisions.

Quote:



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


FY2000 Q1 09926.1 Q2 10031.0 Q3 10278.3 Q4 10357.4 FY 10148.2
FY2001 Q1 10472.3 Q2 10508.1 Q3 10638.4 Q4 10639.5 FY 10564.6
FY2002 Q1 10701.3 Q2 10834.4 Q3 10924.8 Q4 11037.1 FY 10876.9
FY2003 Q1 11103.8 Q2 11230.1 Q3 11370.7 Q4 11625.1 FY 11332.4
FY2004 Q1 11816.7 Q2 11988.4 Q3 12181.4 Q4 12367.7 FY 12088.6
FY2005 Q1 12562.2 Q2 12813.7 Q3 12974.1 Q4 13205.4 FY 12888.9
FY2006 Q1 13381.6 Q2 13648.9 Q3 13799.8 Q4 13908.5 FY 13684.7
FY2007 Q1 14066.4 Q2 14233.2 Q3 14422.3 Q4 14569.7 FY 14322.9
FY2008 Q1 14685.3 Q2 14668.4 Q3 14813.0 Q4 14843.0 FY 14752.4
FY2009 Q1 14549.9 Q2 14383.9 Q3 14340.4 Q4 14384.1 FY 14414.6
FY2010 Q1 14566.5 Q2 14681.1 Q3 14888.6 Q4 15057.7 FY 14798.5
FY2011 Q1 15230.2 Q2 15238.4 Q3 15460.9 Q4 15587.1 FY 15379.1
FY2012 Q1 15785.3 Q2 15973.9 Q3 16121.9 Q4 16227.9 FY 16027.2
FY2013 Q1 16297.7 Q2 16475.4 Q3 16541.4 Q4 16749.3 FY 16515.9
FY2014 Q1 16999.9 Q2 17031.3 Q3 17320.9 Q4 17622.3 FY 17243.6
FY2015 Q1 17735.9 Q2 17874.7 Q3 18093.2 Q4 18227.7 FY 17982.9
FY2016 Q1 18287.2 Q2 18325.2 Q3 18538.0 Q4 18729.1 FY 18469.9
FY2017 Q1 18905.5 Q2 19057.7 Q3 19250.0 Q4 19500.6 FY 19178.4
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2 est3 19960.1 trending FY 20101 - 4.9%
FY2018 Q1 19754.1 Q2(19963.3)Q3(20324.8) (advanced est)

Calendar Year 2017 GDP was 19,391 according to CBO. $19,390.6 from above.


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20402.5 8888ytd 20092.8 88888.8 20049.4 +
Quote:

Quote:


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump is on pace to accomplish this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)



361.5 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4
Quote:


301.4 FY2014 Q4
289.6 FY2014 Q3
267.3 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

253.5 FY2018 Q1
251.5 FY2005 Q2
250.6 FY2014 Q1
250.6 FY2017 Q4
247.3 FY2000 Q3
231.3 FY2005 Q3
218.5 FY2015 Q3
212.8 FY2016 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

267.3 FY2006 Q2
251.5 FY2005 Q2


209.2 FY2018 Q2 (new data)

188.6 FY2012 Q2
183.4 FY2017 Q2 (new data)
177.7 FY2013 Q2
171.7 FY2004 Q2
166.8 FY2007 Q2

152.2 FY2017 Q2


With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2



Quote:


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:




1,0434.4 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

814.4 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1
Quote:


902.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (est3)

873.0 FY2014Q1-4
848.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
843.4 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
837.7 FY2005Q1-4
825.3 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
819.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
810.7 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

792.7 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

779.5 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
772.3 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
771.5 FY2017Q1-4
758.3 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
745.4 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
742.6 FY2004Q1-4

736.0 FY2014Q2 - 15Q1
735.5 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
735.2 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
732.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
713.0 FY2003Q2 - 04Q1
712.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 5 Quarters to date.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 10 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 29 August.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.


Well, today all the numbers changed, so they won't mesh with the previous data. Seems they recalculated current dollars.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

One thing resonates at this point: having the data posted like so far in this thread can be important, because now all of that source data is erased, as far as the Internet is concerned, it never existed.


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Tuesday, August 7, 2018 5:54 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Double posty.

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Tuesday, August 7, 2018 6:06 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This was posted 24 May, but now I'll add the new GDP data:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.



The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178
Quote:


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,792 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,279 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,836 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,443 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,090 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,795 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,559 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,384 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,257 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B
Quote:


This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.


Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,264 $6,025B $6,163B $132B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,696 $5,710B $5,939B $225B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,199 $5,430B $5,733B $298B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,750 $5,145B $5,514B $365B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,342 $4,875B $5,337B $457B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,992 $4,555B $5,151B $593B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,701 $4,265B $4,934B $666B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,471 $3,980B $4,749B $765B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,289 $3,730B $4,592B $861B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,193 $3,542B $4,406B $862B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,160 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177
Quote:


This method of GDP projection results in a total of $2.032 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Tuesday, August 7, 2018 6:22 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



CBO released the Monthly Update today.
Updating with new data:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54339

This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Oct Nove Dece Janu Febru Marc April MMay June July Augu Sept

Rev16 211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 --$14 +$55 --193 --108 +106 --$53 +$06 --113 --107 +$35

Rev16 211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 --216 --160 --353 --459 --353 --405 --399 --512 --619 --585
Projtd -414 -414 --414 --544 --544 --534 --534 --534 --534 --534 --590 --590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9% 27.4 60.3% 78.5 60.3 69.2% 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 --46 --137 --$27 +$51 --192 --176 +182 --$87 --$87 --$45 --109 +$06

Rev17 222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 --46 --183 --210 --159 --351 --527 --344 --432 --520 --568 --675 --668
Projtd -594 -594 --594 --559 --559 --559 --559 --559 --693 --693 --693 --693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6% 23.9 52.8% 79.2 51.7 65.0% 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225
Out18 299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301
SDEst --62 --134 --$26 +$51 --216 --207 +218 --144 --$75 --$75
Act18 --63 --139 --$23 +$49 --215 --209 +214 --146 --$74

Rev18 235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766
Out18 299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448
SDEst --62 --198 --228 --174 --392 --598 --382 --530 --607 --682
Act18 --63 --202 --225 --176 --391 --600 --386 --532 --606
Projtd -873 -873 --873 --873 --873 --873 --804 --792 --793 --793 --793
%Prjt7 -911 -734 --713 --736 --741 --757 --747 --815 --776 --799
%Prjt6 -271 -588 --609 --644 --648 --765 --640 --766 --890 --779


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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Saturday, August 18, 2018 4:03 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


A few days ago we were at the midpoint of the FY 4th Quarter of the highest increased GDP year in the century.

Early leading indicators show the economy is surging even faster. After June had a pace of 0.5% increase, July is marking a pace of 0.6% increase.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2018 8:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updating with data from today's report:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Although I'm not completely on board with the excessive manipulation of data, just to try to push the pretense that Obamanomics was not a disaster for 8 years, it actually does help show how dismall Obamanomics was.
I'll make a list of the best increases in a 2-year period, and also in a 6-Quarter period.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
That revision is a huge manipulation of data, so I'll try to flesh it out a bit here.

Did we really need to redefine what the GDP was in 2000? In 1930?
Did we not know what the GDP was within a few years, so now we
should rewrite history?
The Deep State Obamabots at BEA have feverishly been endeavoring to deny reality.



Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX


With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9
10 14628.0
14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9
Quote:


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

With revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2

223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2




Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:


1,0443.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (est) (new data)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

823.8 FY2018Q1-3 - only first 3 Quarters.
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3

795.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4

734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $704 Billion GDP growth, all 6 Quarters to date, and also the 7th Quarter as well, ending with September.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 12 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


Next GDP report is 27 September.

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $900 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters.

Regardless, we can still see that this past Quarter is the highest growth figure, ever. And the 4-Quarter cycle is the first ever to top $1 Trillion.
Plus, the Quarterly increase is double what most have predicted.

Best increases of 6-Quarter periods:

1,432.7 FY2017Q2 - 18Q3
1,300.6 FY2005Q1 - 06Q2

1,249.3 FY2017Q3 - 18Q3 - with only 5 Quarters
1,241.4 FY2017Q1 - 18Q2

1,228.2 FY2014Q3 - 15Q4
1,227.4 FY2005Q2 - 06Q3
1,223.3 FY2004Q4 - 06Q1
1,222.7 FY2004Q3 - 06Q2
1,209.5 FY2003Q4 - 05Q1

1,200.6 FY2013Q4 - 15Q1
1,194.0 FY2004Q1 - 05Q2
1,191.1 FY2016Q4 - 18Q1
1,179.0 FY2016Q3 - 17Q4

1,140.7 FY2004Q2 - 05Q3




Best increases of 2-year periods, those over 1,500:

1,747.2 FY2016Q4 - 18Q3
1,683.7 FY2004Q3 - 06Q2
1,640.8 FY2004Q4 - 06Q3
1,631.9 FY2016Q3 - 18Q2
1,612.3 FY2017Q1 - 18Q3 - only 7 Quarters.

1,597.1 FY2003Q4 - 05Q3

1,583.4 FY2013Q4 - 15Q3
1,577.8 FY2003Q3 - 05Q2
1,575.6 FY2004Q1 - 05Q4
1,564.2 FY2005Q1 - 06Q4
1,563.0 FY2004Q2 - 06Q1
1,514.8 FY2005Q2 - 07Q1


Quote:



Although last month reported that the Economy had surged forward much farther than expected, this month it is revealed that last month still underreported the surge.

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