REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump's Budget

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Monday, November 7, 2022 12:17
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019 7:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


In case there were any remaining doubts about whether Trump's tax cut would pay for itself, it hasn't.

The massive 27 percent deficit increase from last year is only expected to worsen as Trump's $1.5 trillion tax plan from a year-and-a-half ago fails to "pay for itself" as the White House previously claimed.

www.newsweek.com/conservatives-criticize-republican-federal-deficit-tr
ump-spending-record-congress-debt-tax-cuts-1454024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, August 15, 2019 8:10 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



And with new GDP data from 26 July, which does not add up, so it must be partially wrong:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16944.3 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

370.9 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
322.9 FY2014 Q3

294.0 FY2014 Q4
27?.? FY2019 Q3 (est)
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4
250.9 FY2015 Q3

246.3 FY2018 Q4
244.8 FY2000 Q3
243.7 FY2018 Q1
238.9 FY2005 Q2
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
233.2 FY2019 Q1 (est)
231.6 FY2016 Q3
229.0 FY2017 Q4


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2018:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
209.2 FY2018 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

183.4 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,070.1 FY2018Q1-4
1,052.8 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,033.3 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
1,025.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2

93?.? FY2018Q4 - 19Q3 (est)

878.4 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)
871.1 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)
867.5 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
852.6 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1
842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
788.5 FY2017Q1-4
787.9 FY2013Q3 - 14Q3
753.5 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1
736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2

736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
718.4 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


570.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
492.6 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.

Next report 29 August.

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Thursday, August 15, 2019 9:18 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
You are ignoring inflation. If you look at percent change it becomes very obvious that the growth of GDP is below average during the Trump administration:

GDP Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oDVt


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, August 16, 2019 5:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
You are ignoring inflation. If you look at percent change it becomes very obvious that the growth of GDP is below average during the Trump administration:

GDP Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oDVt

That graph does not seem to display what you think it does.

Trump's period seems to remain above the average, unlike Obamination's sporadic jumps and dips.

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Friday, August 16, 2019 9:40 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

GDP Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oDVt


That graph does not seem to display what you think it does.

Trump's period seems to remain above the average, unlike Obamination's sporadic jumps and dips.
Look at Reagan's. Look at Bush's. Look at Clinton's. Look at Bush II's.
ALL OF THEM ARE HIGHER THAN TRUMP'S. If you cannot see that, get glasses.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:35 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


The budget office said on Wednesday that it expects growth of 2.6 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2020, well below the more than 3 percent growth the Trump administration has promised for those years.

The deficit will reach $960 billion for the 2019 fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, and $1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office said in updated forecasts released on Wednesday.

Mr. Trump’s deficits have shattered his campaign promise to not only balance the budget, but to pay off the entire national debt. His fellow Republicans insist they will return to shrinking the deficit if Mr. Trump wins a second term in office.

www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/us/politics/deficit-will-reach-1-trillion-n
ext-year-budget-office-predicts.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Reposted for top of the page reference:



Budget. Trump's FY2020, with forecasting and projections to 2029

From 11 March 2019, Office of Management and Budget.


The new CBO report is from January 2019. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54918
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections. This is in the middle section.

The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates from January 2019, and then Trump's FY2020 Budget and Projections from OMB on 11 March 2019.

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBR CBOt CBOD CBDb CBGDP || Rvnu Outl Defct FdGFD NtGDP
2029 8888 8888 888 88888 || 5672 7042 1370 33681 31006 || 6292 6495 0202 31506 34727
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5446 6881 1435 32581 29862 || 5939 6447 0508 31195 33116
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5254 6446 1192 31353 28738 || 5608 6122 0513 30695 31580
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 4956 6160 1204 30331 27667 || 5323 5899 0577 30128 30116
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4647 5859 1212 29175 26656 || 5040 5671 0631 29386 28700
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4448 5539 1091 28020 25642 || 4753 5453 0700 28582 27326
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4208 5347 1139 26922 24672 || 4421 5330 0909 27645 26007
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5140 1128 25759 23778 || 4129 5177 1049 26544 24753
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3841 4814 0973 24598 22939 || 3877 4945 1068 25333 23558
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3686 4589 0903 23522 22120 || 3645 4746 1101 24057 22410
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3515 4412 0897 22465 21252 || 3438 4529 1092 22776 21289
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3329 4108 0779 21461 20236 || 3330 4109 0779 21462 20236
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 ||


In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).


In the middle section, the CBO Analysis from May 2018:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.

The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028. The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period.
Which would exaggerate by $3 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected.


The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget, from January 2019.



Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.



Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA.


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX


As can be seen, actual figures have GDP far outpacing the forecasts, as well as Outlays are less than any projections, Deficit for 2018 below any of these projections.
For FY2020: As usual, this shows Conservatives underestimate Revenues and GDP, and overestimate spending, Deficits, and Debts. While Liberals like CBO do the opposite.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:13 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Reposted for top of the page reference:




Updated with some 2018 data from CBO.

Budget.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This is a repost from 18 May, with Budget Deficit, Actual Deficit, Federal Debt, and GDP. The Excess column is the amount the Debt exceeds the GDP.


I keep Forgetting how convoluted, twisted, and fabricated the figures are regarding the Federal Debt. The Gross Federal Debt, the Public Federal Debt, and the annual Deficits of the Federal Budgets do not add up, even when all are on the Fiscal Year cycle. OMB, CBO, Treasury, BEA, use different data, often not meshing.
So I will lay out some more data, for reference.

This helps show that, although the Rock-The-Vote Democraps doubled the Deficit in FY2008, Obama still only inherited a Debt about 2/3 of the GDP, and then was able to, in a few short years, push the Federal Debt over the GDP by 2012, and grew the excess to more than $1 Trillion over the GDP.

Once upon a time, reasonable people explained that a Debt larger than GDP was not a sustainable situation, and then Obamanomics took us there. And then after FY2012 ended, he was reelected to make the Economy even worse. While simultaneously bloating the Debt even further.

Obviously, CBO uses Libtard projection practices, so score any reasonable Budget with less Revenue, more Outlays, more Deficit, and lower GDP.
CBO scores delusional Libtard Budgets with exaggerated Revenue and GDP, and overly optimisticly low Outlays and Deficit.


Federal Debt data is from U.S. Treasury. Using Gross Federal Debt.
For the section to the right, the columns are FY Increase to the Federal Debt (aka THE REAL FEDERAL DEFICIT), FY Gross Federal Debt, FY National GDP, the amount the Debt Exceeds the GDP.

For reference, here is the CBO Historical Budget data:


FscYr Revenues Outlays FedDeficit || DebtInc Fedrl Debt FY NatGDP Excess
(EST) $ 3,329 B $ 4,108 B $ 779 B || $~1255B $~ 21,461 $~20,236 B $1225 B
2017 $3316.2B $3981.6B $665.4B || $666.2B $20,205.7 $19,177.2B 1028.5B
2016 $3268.0B $3852.6B $584.7B || 1419.4B $19,539.5 $18,469.9B 1069.6B
2015 $3249.9B $3688.4B $438.5B || $325.6B $18,120.1 $17,982.9B $137.2B
2014 $3021.5B $3506.1B $484.6B || 1075.1B $17,794.5 $17,243.6B $550.9B
2013 $2775.1B $3454.6B $679.5B || $668.5B $16,719.4 $16,515.9B $203.5B
2012 $2450.0B $3536.9B 1087.0B || 1286.7B $16,050.9 $16,027.2B $023.7B
2011 $2303.5B $3603.1B 1299.6B || 1235.4B $14,764.2 $15,379.2B
2010 $2162.7B $3457.1B 1294.4B || 1652.9B $13,528.8 $14,798.5B
2009 $2105.0B $3517.7B 1412.7B || 1889.8B $11,875.9 $14,414.6B
2008 $2524.0B $2982.5B $458.6B || 1035.4B $09,986.1 $14,752.4B
2007 $2568.0B $2728.7B $160.7B || $499.3B $08,950.7 $14,322.9B
2006 $2406.9B $2655.1B $248.2B || $546.1B $08,451.4 $13,684.7B
2005 $2153.6B $2472.0B $318.3B || $550.6B $07,905.3 $12,888.9B
2004 $1880.1B $2292.8B $412.7B || $594.7B $07,354.7 $12,088.6B
2003 $1782.3B $2159.9B $377.6B || $561.6B $06,760.0 $11,332.4B
2002 $1853.6B $2010.9B $157.8B || $428.5B $06,198.4 $10,876.9B
2001 $1991.1B $1862.8B +128.2B || $141.2B $05,769.9 $10,564.6B
2000 $2025.2B $1789.0B +236.2B || $023.2B $05,628.7 $10,148.2B
1999 $1827.5B $1701.8B +125.6B || $127.3B $05,605.5 $09,510.5B
1998 $1721.7B $1652.5B +069.3B || $109.0B $05,478.2 $08,954.8B
1997 $1579.2B $1601.1B $021.9B || $187.7B $05,369.2 $08,483.2B
1996 $1453.1B $1560.5B $107.4B || $260.9B $05,181.5 $07,978.3B
1995 $1351.8B $1515.7B $164.0B || $277.3B $04,920.6 $07,583.4B


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Quote:
Once I add in FY2018 figures, we should see that with Deficit growth slowing, GDP growth exploding, the Excess will be well under $1 Trillion for the first time since Obama raced to get there.

Compared to the Brink of Economic Nightmare Horror that Obama brought us to, this now shows promise, hope, a light at the end of the tunnel, and a reversal of the path we were on.

Obama's trajectory has been Trumped.
My prior table had underestimated this year's GDP. So now we see that Trump actually deleted a quarter of Obama's Debt Excess (amount Federal Debt is higher than GDP).

Hmmmm. Lowering Taxes increases Revenues and Lowers Debt....I've heard that somewhere before.


I have seen political ads from Dems lying like crazy about Taxes and Debt (thanks to CBO issuing those lies in their Fake April report), and now will this excellent Fiscal Budget news be used in any new ads?



Edit: well, that figure probably won't hold up. CBO is using some weird calculation for their GDP figure, likely subtracting $100B from the BEA number. Which would make the Excess around $877B.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:23 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by second:
In case there were any remaining doubts about whether Trump's tax cut would pay for itself, it hasn't.

The massive 27 percent deficit increase from last year is only expected to worsen as Trump's $1.5 trillion tax plan from a year-and-a-half ago fails to "pay for itself" as the White House previously claimed.

www.newsweek.com/conservatives-criticize-republican-federal-deficit-tr
ump-spending-record-congress-debt-tax-cuts-1454024
This bot is still broken, continuing to deny reality.

Relying upon ultra-retarded journalists to cypher your Maths for you is not a winning strategy.





Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
You should try reading the news sometime. Even the Deep State admits that Trump's Tax Reform will be saving more than a $Trillion in the next 15 years.
The projections of Dem disaster was already in the Budgets from Obama, no new or further updates were needed. But Trump has vastly reduced those.
JewelStaiteFan, show me that fake news story with the $1 Trillion savings. I got stories that say there are no savings:


The Fake News story from the Deep State CBO:
http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61505&mid=10534
14#1053414


Today CBO released its Analysis of Trump's FY2019 Federal Budget.
To reconcile it's prior projections with Reality it had to begrudgingly increase the Revenues, decrease the Outlays, Deficit, and Debt, and increase the GDP - at least for FY2018. And these revisions are compared to the delusions they persisted with as of LAST MONTH, or 7 weeks ago.
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53884

The CBO report is from April 2018, which was delayed from January due to the legislation passed in November 2017, February, March 2018. It only includes non-legislative factors up to mid-February. It is https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53651
For comparison, I'll post on the same Table as Trump's projections.


The left has President's Federal Budget, FY2019, and then the CBO estimates from April 2018, and then the CBO Analysis from May 2018:

Year Rvnu Outl Defct NtGDP || CBRv CBOt CBD CBGDP || CBR CBOt CDOD CBGDP
2028 5818 6181 363 32602 || 5520 7046 1526 29803 || 5264 6351 1087 29803
2027 5506 5955 450 31089 || 5299 6615 1316 28677 || 5063 6029 $965 28677
2026 5231 5748 517 29647 || 5002 6322 1320 27608 || 4886 5778 $893 27608
2025 4946 5526 579 28253 || 4663 6015 1352 26595 || 4659 5553 $895 26595
2024 4675 5348 672 26900 || 4444 5688 1244 25583 || 4446 5305 $859 25583
2023 4386 5160 774 25605 || 4228 5500 1273 24621 || 4232 5202 $971 24621
2022 4089 4941 852 24369 || 4012 5288 1276 23716 || 4016 5055 1039 23716
2021 3838 4754 916 23194 || 3827 4949 1123 22872 || 3830 4775 $945 22872
2020 3609 4596 987 22067 || 3678 4685 1008 22034 || 3682 4548 $866 22034
2019 3422 4407 984 21003 || 3490 4470 $981 21136 || 3493 4448 $955 21136
2018 3340 4214 873 20029 || 3338 4142 $804 20103 || 3339 4131 $792 20103
2017 3316 3982 665 19177 || 3316 3982 $665 19178 || 3316 3982 $665 19178

In the left section, Trump's Budget, compared to Obama projections:
The Revenue projections are reduced from the exaggerated amounts Obama assumed. Deficits upcoming are increased due to more realistic projections. For 2017 the figures were updated from Obama's base projections and last year corrections. Trump's GDP is revised up, and Expenditures are revised down.
Trump's Budget accumulates $8.632 Trillion in Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $13 Trillion in that period.

Which holds true to historical practice. Democrats always exaggerate or overestimate Revenues and downplay or underestimate Expenditures, and Conservative Republicans always underestimate Revenue projections and overestimate Expenditure projections (but Democrats then find some pork to fill in the difference).

In the middle section, the CBO projections:
The Liberal biased practices of the CBO bloat the Expenditures, and undervalue the Revenues and long-term GDP, thus exaggerate the Deficits. The GDP in the short term is more because even the Liberal bias was unable to deny the reality of Trump's Fiscal Policies and subsequent GDP growth.
The CBO projections bloat the accumulative Deficits to $13.888 Trillion by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $20 Trillion in that period - practically doubling from it's current level. Which would exaggerate by $7 Trillion what Trump's Budget projected, or about 150%

The section to the right is the CBO Analysis of Trump's Budget.
The CBO Analysis projects $11.033 Trillion accumulated Deficits by 2028.
Indicating the Federal Debt would add about $16 Trillion in that period. Which trims off about $4 Trillion of their own exaggeration from only 7 weeks before - more than half of their bloated figures.


Because the numbers from BEA are not used in the President's Federal Budget during this century, the relevant figures had to be interpolated. For this reason the 20,029 would be replaced by 20,103. An increase of $74 Billion for 2018.
I will attempt to revise the data with this new data bump, using a linear increase to GDP. Then a corresponding change to Revenue. And a corresponding change to the reduction in Debt Service.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $32,735 $5,918B $6,168B $250B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,222 $5,606B $5,943B $338B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $29,780 $5,331B $5,737B $406B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,386 $5,046B $5,517B $470B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,033 $4,775B $5,340B $564B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,738 $4,486B $5,153B $667B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,502 $4,189B $4,936B $747B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,327 $3,938B $4,750B $812B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,200 $3,709B $4,593B $884B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,522B $4,406B $883B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177 $19,178 $3,316B $3,982B $665B

This GDP bump results in a projected reduction of $1.246 Trillion in the Federal Debt during the 11 years from 2018-2028.


And I will also show a revised table using a continued increase in GDP, not to exceed the peak growth rate of 2006-2018.

Year Revenue Outlays Deficit Nat GDP Rev GDP Revenue Outlays Deficit
2028 $5,818B $6,181B $363B $32,602 $33,207 $6,025B $6,163B $138B
2027 $5,506B $5,955B $450B $31,089 $31,639 $5,710B $5,939B $230B
2026 $5,231B $5,748B $517B $29,647 $30,142 $5,430B $5,733B $303B
2025 $4,946B $5,526B $579B $28,253 $28,693 $5,145B $5,514B $368B
2024 $4,675B $5,348B $672B $26,900 $27,285 $4,875B $5,337B $461B
2023 $4,386B $5,160B $774B $25,605 $25,935 $4,555B $5,151B $596B
2022 $4,089B $4,941B $852B $24,369 $24,644 $4,265B $4,934B $669B
2021 $3,838B $4,754B $916B $23,194 $23,414 $3,980B $4,749B $769B
2020 $3,609B $4,596B $987B $22,067 $22,232 $3,730B $4,592B $862B
2019 $3,422B $4,407B $984B $21,003 $21,136 $3,542B $4,406B $863B
2018 $3,340B $4,214B $873B $20,029 $20,103 $3,440B $4,131B $690B
2017 $3,316B $3,982B $665B $19,177

This method of GDP projection results in a total of $1.996 Trillion less Federal Debt thru the years 2018-2028.


Well, that link at the top of this post does not correlate to the data from any of the past 2 dozen Budget statements.
But it does provide link to source data at BEA, which includes the report from 27 April, showing that Personal Taxes at the end of March 2018 (Tax Reform Rates) is about the same as the end of August 2017 (Obamanomics Tax Rates).


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX



$13.888 minus $11.033 equals $2.855 Trillion in savings, reduction of Debt.
The preceding/underlying $7 Trillion is the Legacy costs and increases from Obamanomics.

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Thursday, August 22, 2019 7:49 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Relying upon ultra-retarded journalists to cypher your Maths for you is not a winning strategy.
JewelStaiteFan, the Federal Reserve says you are a numbskull. The investment community says you are a numbskull.

Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years. Instead, his budgets will add $9.1 trillion during that time.
www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/

The Federal Reserve can clarify that Trump is steadily increasing the debt:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=oGgj


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, August 27, 2019 7:53 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


In CBO’s projections, the deficit will exceed $1 trillion next year and continue growing in the future. CBO projects that deficits will average $1.2 trillion between 2020 and 2029, or 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Such large deficits would be unusual during a period of economic expansion, and would limit the government’s ability to respond to future economic downturns.

www.pgpf.org/blog/2019/08/deficits-much-larger-than-projected-just-thr
ee-months-ago-and-other-key-takeaways-from-the-cbo-report

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.
BEA released a new report today.

The numbers are still goofy. They don't add up, again. There is no correction to the bad data from last month, and the bad data continues this month.
This seems to represent a break in the data, a change from one set of continuous data, now to some different set of data which is incompatible with the past data.
I have not yet found any explanation or technical note to reconcile these streams of data.

The new report says CY Q2 is $240.3 B - which is also FY Q3.
Up to a level of $21.34 T.
and the last Quarter (FY Q2) is still reported as $201.0 B

Next GDP report is 26 September.

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Thursday, August 29, 2019 5:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
BEA released a report today, but the numbers seem goofy. It claims the 1st Calendar Quarter had $201.0 B increase of Current-Dollar GDP. Says this is the same as in the last report.

And 2nd Calendar Quarter increase of 239.1 B, to a level of 21.34 Trillion.


Last month it said the 1st Cal Q was 195.0 B, to level of 21.06 T.

I need to look into this more, to find what their errors are.


21.06 plus revised 0.0060 would be 21.06 or 21.07 T, and then another 0.2391 T would be 21.30 or 21.31 T.
BEA released a new report today.

The numbers are still goofy. They don't add up, again. There is no correction to the bad data from last month, and the bad data continues this month.
This seems to represent a break in the data, a change from one set of continuous data, now to some different set of data which is incompatible with the past data.
I have not yet found any explanation or technical note to reconcile these streams of data.

The new report says CY Q2 is $240.3 B - which is also FY Q3.
Up to a level of $21.34 T.
and the last Quarter (FY Q2) is still reported as $201.0 B

Next GDP report is 26 September.
They have erased the historical data, it seems.

At this site, the data shows how much was altered, back to CY13 Q4 at $17,083.1 B:
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product/gdp-gdi-vintage-hi
story
It is labeled as "vintage" but has all of the data since that time erased.
As well, it seems all of the archived News Releases have also been altered with the data erased.
I can only see clearly what the differences are between historical reality and the new Fake Reports for as far back as I have the reports saved on my phone, where I downloaded them.

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Friday, August 30, 2019 4:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



I will try to revise this post with the new data, first introduced 26 July 2019.


And with new GDP data from 26 July, which does not add up, so it must be partially wrong:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est). More than I expected, and enough to surpass the 4-Quarter $1 T Mark.


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21337.9

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3 (new data)
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
239.6 FY2018 Q4
239.1 FY2019 Q3 (est)
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
827.7 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3 (est)
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.

Next report 29 August.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Also, regarding the revised historical data: looks like this might happen avery July. If so, I should remember to fully update and confirm the figures following the June report each year.

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Friday, August 30, 2019 4:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period.
But what does that have to do with the soaring Federal deficit? (a product of BOTH parties)

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Thursday, September 5, 2019 7:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I recently heard a fun fact. If you earn $30,000 you are in the Most Wealthy 1% in the World.



I also recently heard a concise summary of a few incisive points.

There is $70 Trillion of worldwide Currency. Since 2014, China has printed $60 Trillion in currency.

China runs a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 480%.

In a functional economy (which excludes China), a failing economy spurs Low or Zero Interest Rates. Thee Low Rates are not beneficial to the Poor, and very minimally to the Middle Class. These Low Rates are completely accessible and beneficial to the Wealthy. These Low Rates are what exacerbate the Wealth Gap. This is why Obama worked so feverishly for 8 years to destroy the economy, so he could widen the Wealth Gap, garner resentment between Classes, while also foisting everybody onto Government Handouts and Subsistence.



Therefore:
Most folk understand that China continuing on their unsustainable path will not result in their paying their debts, but defaulting into War with the creditors. The world is funding the Chinese War Machine, which will destroy the lenders.

I don't think many Libtards comprehend how Obama widened the Wealth Gap by destroaying the economy for 8-10 years.


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Thursday, September 5, 2019 8:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21339.1

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
240.3 FY2019 Q3 (est)
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2 (new data)

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4 (new data)

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
828.9 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3 (est)
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.

Next report 26 September.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2019 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's CBO Report.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0219.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $227
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $427
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3087
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4154
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896 -896
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.

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Thursday, September 12, 2019 4:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with today's MTS.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.

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Thursday, September 12, 2019 8:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period.
But what does that have to do with the soaring Federal deficit? (a product of BOTH parties)
I didn't respond right away because I didn't want to give the answer short shrift - when I knew I wouldn't have time and access.

I think you might be asking 2 questions, or at least one of 2.

1. What is the connection between GDP Growth and Federal Deficit (and also Federal Debt)?

2. What is the relationship of each Party regarding the Federal Deficit and GDP? Or at least between Trump and Federal Deficit.



1. Federal Deficit is a result of Government Spending. Excessive Revenues have never caused a Deficit of the Federal Budget. Government, and it's Spending, as well as it's confiscatory consuption of Taxes, are all parasites of the GDP - a giant succubus.
To generate more Revenue through taxation, the best way is to generate more GDP. The more GDP, the more Revenues can be collected, without any additional Spending to create that GDP. So, by increasing the GDP and allowing Americans to be productive can make it easier and unobtrusive to collect more Revenues without any need to spend more, and thus can turn Federal Deficit into Federal Surplus.
It is vastly harder to increase Revenues when GDP is swamped, struggling, choked out, depressed and recessed.

These are not automatically following, but actions must be taken to enforce this functional process.




2. Democrats Spend more than they take in as Revenue. No matter how much Revenue the Economy generates for their coffers, Democrats always find multitudes of ways to spend more money on non-Taxpayers than the Taxpayers provided. Republicans must reverse the Economic disasters of the Democrats, and sometimes must stimulate the Economy to accomplish this.
Carter, Clinton and Obama increased the Federal Debt through spending, and Reagan, Gingrich, Bush43, and Trump increased Revenues through GDP Growth.

I did not vote for Trump. I had little doubt that if any GOP candidate won (Trump or other), the GDP would be released and unburdened, and grow. But I also had little faith that Trump would make any true effort to reduce the Federal Debt, reverse the Federal Deficit. Partly because of his history of Bankrupcies, and his wheeler-dealer practices, I felt he would merely use Budgets as bargaining chips, to be discarded at the first opportunity. Because my number 1 issue is Debt reduction, I could not vote for Trump for these reasons.



So, these increases in GDP can make it easier to balance the Federal Budget, but at the moment Democrats are in charge of spending, and therefore dragging the Budget through the gutter. If more cost-conscious Congressmen are elected, then we could hope to eliminate the Deficit, and start paying down the Debt. If we can just cease the wasteful and excessive spending. Growth of GDP should be reducing the need for spending, not making more and more couch potatoes dependant upon Government handouts.

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Thursday, September 26, 2019 8:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.3

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.5 FY2019 Q3 (est)
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
830.1 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3 (est)
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
Next report 30 October.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Updated with the most recent CBO Update. It was not available Friday after CoB, it was available Saturday evening, and it was dated Friday 7 June.
Libtards at CBO are so lazy now that they are not releasing their own reports during the day that they themselves scheduled the release. Yesterday's scheduled release was not available for the whole morning or afternoon, but was finally available after close of business sometime.
However, it seems the summary of the report is all that is available, the linky to the full document seems to be dead - so they are proven incompetent as well as lazy.


https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55699


Correction:
It seems only the mobile version of the linky is dead, but the online version has a valid linky, which links to here:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-10/55699-CBO-MBR.pdf

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:11 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with yesterday's CBO.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $324
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4466
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.

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Tuesday, October 8, 2019 8:15 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:



https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55699


Correction:
It seems only the mobile version of the linky is dead, but the online version has a valid linky, which links to here:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-10/55699-CBO-MBR.pdf
October 7, 2019

Monthly Budget Review for September 2019

The federal budget deficit was $984 billion in fiscal year 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. CBO's estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements issued by the Department of the Treasury; the department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2019 later this month.

Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit — at an estimated 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) — was the highest since 2012, and 2019 was the fourth consecutive year in which the deficit increased as a percentage of GDP.

The estimated deficit is $205 billion more than the shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2018. However, that year’s outlays were affected by a shift in the timing of certain payments. Because October 1, 2017, fell on a weekend, $44 billion in outlays was shifted to September of fiscal year 2017. If not for that, the 2019 deficit would have been $162 billion larger than the 2018 amount, rather than $205 billion larger. Excluding that effect, revenues were 4 percent higher and outlays were 7 percent higher in 2019 than they were in 2018, CBO estimates.

The deficit of $984 billion is about $24 billion larger than the shortfall that CBO projected in its August 2019 report, "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029" www.cbo.gov/publication/55551 . Revenues exceeded the projection by $11 billion but outlays exceeded the projection by $35 billion, according to CBO’s estimates.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, October 9, 2019 8:14 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
Donald Trump Promised to Eliminate the Deficit in 8 Years. So Far, He Has Increased it by 68%

During the 2016 campaign, President Donald Trump made an aggressive promise on federal finances: He would eliminate the budget deficit within eight years. Now, three years into his presidency, the deficit is 68 percent higher than when he started.

More at www.newsweek.com/trump-deficit-debt-cbo-data-obama-1463802

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 12, 2019 3:45 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The Monthly Treasury Statement is normally released on the 8th business day of each month, which was 10 October. Now it is 2 days later, and still no release. Not sure why.

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Thursday, October 17, 2019 7:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The Monthly Treasury Statement is normally released on the 8th business day of each month, which was 10 October. Now it is 2 days later, and still no release. Not sure why.



This page continues to state that the MTS is released on the 8th Business Day of each month.


https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

Which was 10 October. 7 days ago.

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Friday, October 25, 2019 3:08 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Federal Deficit Rises to 4.6% of GDP

The news is full today with scary stories about the federal deficit approaching a trillion dollars this year. And that’s true. But as you know, money comparisons should always be presented with inflation accounted for. In this case, that means calculating the deficit as a percentage of GDP.

4.6% of GDP

Last year deficit-to-GDP-ratio was 3.8%.

Now, it’s true that Donald Trump said it would be a piece of cake to get rid of the deficit and he hasn’t done it. It’s also true that you don’t really want to see the deficit getting bigger during an economic expansion. So this is not a great result.

www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-budget/u-s-governments-annual-b
udget-deficit-largest-since-2012-idUSKBN1X426T

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 26, 2019 4:13 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The MTS for September was finally released the last couple days.

Updated with the MTS.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.

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Thursday, October 31, 2019 8:31 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with 30 Oct report data.

Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21525.8

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.4 FY2019 Q3
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
830.1 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
776.0 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
Next report 30 October.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2019 8:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the CBO.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $25
Out20 $35
S/D20 -133

Rev20 $25
Out20 $35
S/D20 -133
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Monday, November 18, 2019 7:47 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS, which came out sometime Thursday - the 9th Business Day of the month.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246
Out20 $380
S/D20 -134

Rev20 $246
Out20 $380
S/D20 -134
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Sunday, December 1, 2019 3:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with 27 Nov report data.

Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.0

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.4 FY2019 Q3
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
830.0 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
792.2 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
A large bump in the estimate this month, change of $16.2 B.
Next report 20 December.

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Saturday, December 28, 2019 4:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with 20 Dec report data.

Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.4 FY2019 Q3
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
830.0 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
792.7 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
A large bump in the estimate this month, change of $16.2 B.
Next report 20 December.
Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Saturday, December 28, 2019 4:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for Nov 2019.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225
Out20 $380 $434
S/D20 -134 -209

Rev20 $246 $471
Out20 $380 $814
S/D20 -134 -343
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Sunday, January 19, 2020 4:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for Dec 2019.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336
Out20 $380 $434 $349
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13

Rev20 $246 $471 $806
Out20 $380 $814 1163
S/D20 -134 -343 $357
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:13 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


You Should Be Absolutely Furious Over Donald Trump’s $1 Trillion Deficit

Is it fair to be mad about the debt, given the way Republicans spent years calling for spending cuts when we were still fighting our way out of the recession? Given the way Trump has added to the red ink in large part by slashing taxes for the wealthy? Given that the debt will inevitably be weaponized as an excuse to attack spending on important government programs the second a Democrat is in office? Absolutely. You should be furious about it.

Around the time Trump entered office, the CBO projected that the budget gap was on pace to hit $775 billion by 2020, or 3.6 percent of the economy. Capitol Hill’s forecasters now think it will reach $1.015 trillion instead, equal to about 4.6 percent of GDP. That extra percentage point is what we should probably think of as the Trump bump. It’s a result of both the GOP’s 2017 tax bill (no, it did not pay for itself) and increased military expenditures.

More at https://slate.com/business/2020/01/trumps-billion-dollar-deficit-shoul
d-make-you-furious.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, January 30, 2020 12:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yup. And it would have been 3 Trillion had Hillary won.

There's no putting the shit back in that horse, I'm afraid.

Smoke if you got 'em.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, January 30, 2020 7:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yup. And it would have been 3 Trillion had Hillary won.

There's no putting the shit back in that horse, I'm afraid.

Smoke if you got 'em.
Not even one Democrat voted for Trump's tax cut bill, but there were enough Republican Congressmen to get it to Trump's White House for a signature. If Hillary was in the White House, she would veto it. The GOP doesn't have the 2/3rds majority to override that veto. One simple veto is worth about $10 trillion in higher taxes on the wealthiest 1 percent of American tax payers, who can well afford to pay as I know from experience.

"Republicans pass historic tax cuts without a single Democratic vote"
www.axios.com/republicans-pass-historic-tax-cuts-without-a-single-demo
cratic-vote-1515110718-8cdf005c-c1c9-481a-975b-72336765ebe4.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, January 31, 2020 4:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


GDP.

Updated with 30 Jan 2020 report data.

Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5
20 21734.2

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.4 FY2019 Q3
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
836.4 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
830.0 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
792.7 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
A large bump in the estimate this month, change of $16.2 B.
Next report 20 December.
Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Wednesday, February 12, 2020 6:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Well, Trump released his Federal Budget for 2021, and the search engines have been busy scrubbing any reference not filtered through Fake News.


I found this linky:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/budget_fy21.pdf

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Wednesday, February 12, 2020 8:29 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for Jan 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Thursday, February 27, 2020 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with revised 30 Jan 2020 report data.

Updated with new GDP data from 29 August, using the New Revised data from July 2019:
$201.0 B for 2019Q2 (est).


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7


This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

347.0 FY2018 Q3
328.3 FY2014 Q3
307.2 FY2018 Q1

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
255.1 FY2017 Q4
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
244.3 FY2018 Q2
241.4 FY2019 Q3
239.6 FY2018 Q4
238.9 FY2005 Q2
235.2 FY2015 Q3
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
213.0 FY2016 Q3



Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2019:
271.6 FY2006 Q2

244.3 FY2018 Q2
238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
201.0 FY2019 Q2

198.5 FY2017 Q2
171.4 FY2007 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2


Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.

Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,153.6 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,138.1 FY2018Q1-4

978.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
972.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

935.6 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
927.0 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

879.6 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4

830.0 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
828.9 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
805.0 FY2017Q1-4
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
792.7 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
786.5 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
766.1 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.3 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
719.3 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


641.1 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
462.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $710 Billion GDP growth, all 9 Quarters to date. Plus the next one. If the Anti-economy Election hasn't killed the Economy, then also the next one.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
For June 2019, the estimate bumped up $11.3 Billion, while BEA stated it was the same. This is a bit more than normal for the third and final estimate.
The new report (26 June) states that the FY Q2 increase was 201.0 which is 6.0 higher than the third and final estimate. This is a bit more than normal for after the third and final estimate.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.
A large bump in the estimate this month, change of $16.2 B.
Next report 20 December.
Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Thursday, March 12, 2020 8:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



Updated with the MTS for Feb 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1387
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624
Projt -98
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Friday, October 2, 2020 2:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I have lapsed my updates of this thread, kicking off with the Lockdown.

But I had started this thread and intended to continue, as a form of monitoring the progress which I had hoped Trump would make, at least until the Election, which is coming upon us.

Of course, this is largely chucked out the window since Self-Annointed President of Congress Nancy has blown out the Budget with her $4 Trillion of Democrap Pork when she outlawed discussion, negotiation, voting and just demanded that she be the only person allowed to submit Budget demands.

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Friday, October 2, 2020 2:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN




Updated with the MTS for March-August 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Rev16 $211 $205 $350 $314 $169 $228 $438 $225 $330 $210 $231 $358
Out16 $347 $270 $364 $258 $362 $336 $332 $277 $323 $323 $338 $323
S/D16 -136 -$65 -$14 +$55 -193 -108 +106 -$53 +$06 -113 -107 +$35

Rev16 $211 $416 $766 1079 1248 1476 1915 2139 2469 2679 2910 3268
Out16 $347 $617 $981 1240 1601 1936 2268 2545 2868 3191 3529 3852
S/D16 -136 -201 -216 -160 -353 -459 -353 -405 -399 -512 -619 -585
Projt -414 -414 -414 -544 -544 -534 -534 -534 -534 -534 -590 -590
Port% 23.2 34.4 36.9 27.4 60.3 78.5 60.3 69.2 68.2 87.5 106% 100%


Rev17 $222 $200 $319 $344 $172 $217 $456 $240 $339 $231 $226 $348
Out17 $267 $337 $347 $293 $364 $393 $273 $327 $426 $276 $336 $342
S/D17 -$46 -137 -$27 +$51 -192 -176 +182 -$87 -$87 -$45 -109 +$06

Rev17 $222 $422 $741 1085 1257 1473 1929 2168 2509 2738 2966 3314
Out17 $267 $604 $951 1243 1607 2000 2273 2600 3028 3307 3642 3982
S/D17 -$46 -183 -210 -159 -351 -527 -344 -432 -520 -568 -675 -668
Projt -594 -594 -594 -559 -559 -559 -559 -559 -693 -693 -693 -693
Port% 06.9 27.5 31.6 23.9 52.8 79.2 51.7 65.0 78.2 85.4 101% 100%


Rev18 $235 $210 $326 $362 $157 $213 $515 $217 $314 $225 $219 $343
Out18 $299 $344 $352 $311 $373 $420 $297 $361 $389 $301 $430 $227
SDEst -6$2 -134 -$26 +$51 -216 -207 +218 -144 -$75 -$75 -211 +116
Act18 -$63 -139 -$23 +$49 -215 -209 +214 -146 -$74 -$77 -214 +118

Rev18 $235 $445 $770 1131 1287 1499 2012 2224 2539 2766 2985 3328
Out18 $299 $643 $998 1306 1679 2097 2394 2754 3146 3448 3880 4110
SDEst -$62 -198 -228 -174 -392 -598 -382 -530 -607 -682 -894 -782
Act18 -$63 -202 -225 -176 -391 -600 -386 -532 -606 -683 -897 -779
Projt -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -873 -804 -792 -793 -793 -793 -793
%Prj7 -911 -734 -713 -736 -741 -757 -747 -815 -776 -799 -885 -782
%Prj6 -271 -588 -609 -644 -648 -765 -640 -766 -890 -779 -845 -782
Port% 08.1 25.9 28.9 22.6 50.2 77.0 49.6 74.7 77.8 87.7 115% 100%


Rev19 $253 $205 $312 $340 $171
Out19 $353 $408 $324 $331 $398
SDEst -$98 -203 -012 +$09 -227
Act19 -100 -205 -013 +$09 -234

Rev19 $253 $458 $771 1111 1282
Out19 $353 $761 1088 1421 1819
SDEst -$98 -303 -317 -310 -537
Act19 -100 -305 -318 -310 -544
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897 -897
%Pjt8 1212 1170 1097 1372 1060 (944)
%Pjt7 1423 1102 1003 1297 1017
%Pjt6 -422 -881 -859 1131 -891

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Items of note:
Despite the endless whining of "Tax Cuts" from CBO, they admit they exaggerated the deficit, and more revenue was generated Every Single Month this FY2018.
Hmmmm.
Revenue gain from October 2015 -> 2016: $11 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2016 -> 2017: $13 Billion.
Revenue gain from October 2017 -> 2018: $18 Billion.

And Outlays (spending) is almost back to Obama's October 2015 level, considering inflation/devaluation from Obamanomics.
For November 2018, payment shifts caused a bloat of $45 Billion more than normal.
For December the timing shifts in payments caused a bloat of $44 Billion.
The Deficit for December 2018 is $11 Billion less than December 2017, and without the bloat would be a Surplus of $32 Billion for this December, or $55 Billion better than the year before.
Even with the bloat, Spending (Outlays) for December 2018 were $28 Billion less than December 2017. You will not find that number in the CBO report, because they are toiling feverishly to convolute it to hide such good news now that their God Obama is out of Office. Also $23 Billion less than December 2016, and $40 Billion less than December 2015 - both Obama Spending.

Without using the bloat, extrapolation indicates the FY Deficit to be more than $100 Billion below projections, after only the first Quarter.

Timing shifts of payments only alter Outlays, there is no effect on Revenues. First Quarter Revenues are more than any other First Quarter.

Net interest on the Public Debt went from $86 Billion in December 2017 to $102 Billion in December 2018. Thanks, Obama - and Obama toadie Powell. An Increase of $16 Billion per month will make an annual Surplus even harder to achieve.
For January 2019, the picture clarifies a bit.
After months of shifting payments to a prior month based upon days of the week for payment, January does not seem to have that. Such phenomenon made direct comparison to prior years more difficult. January is also the first month of the new spendaholic Pelosi House.
Although Individual Income Tax is $33B less for FYTD compared to January 2018, $15B of that is from January 2019 alone, suggesting the GDP slowdown resulting from the Anti-Economy Election is reducing Income of Taxpayers. Or possibly the Pelosi Shutdown interfered with the collection of Revenues.
By comparison, Payroll Tax Revenues for December 2018 were $10B more than December 2017. $95B vs. $85B - an increase of 12%.
This is a bit interesting. As of March 2019, and using the percentage progression of the past 3 years, the projections are equal or less than the CBO's Projection for FY2019 Deficit.
For April 2019: The largest Revenue collection in history, for the second consecutive April.
CBO continues to whine about less Corporate Income Tax Revenue because of the Tax Law, but This April Corporate Income Tax Revenue were $3B more than April 2018, and Individual income and payroll Taxes were $22B more than last year. Withheld Taxes for those payments were up $16B over last year.
For August 2019: Revenues were more than August 2018, and spending was less.
Today was the 8th business day of the month, so the MTS for October should have been released, but it dos not sem available yet.

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Friday, October 2, 2020 3:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



GDP.

Updated with revised 30 Jul 2020 report data, for 2015- present.

BEA seems to have had another round of hiding data, and discontinuing it's prior templates for providing data, including deleting the archived reports. So now all of the historical data is truly deleted, except for places like right here where the data has not been erased.

To find this data, one must used the "data tools" function, and find Table 1.1.5


The 4th consecutive Quarter showing the prior 4 Quarters increased more than $1 Trillion GDP - which never before happened in a 4 Quarter span.
The last several reports have been persistently rounding off the figure totals by 3 or 4 digits, so that the figures I'm posting are based upon addition, stacked many times, and could be subject to correction.


Here I'll include a column showing how far behind the pace the Obamanomics years were.
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
This data does appear to be listed under Calendar Year Quarters as opposed to Fiscal Year Quarters elsewhere.
Yes, this is Table.1.1.5 (use the Modify button to adjust dates) at this link:
https://bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?


This GDP data is from BEA News Release Archives. Current-Dollar GDP.

I noticed a trend among the BEA data. The figures from BEA do not match other info. But they make monthly reports, each Quarter has an Advanced Estimate, then 2nd Estimate, then 3rd Estimate, before the final figure.

With new data from 27 July 2018:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
00 09890.4 10002.9 10247.7 10319.8 10107.4 10252.3
01 10439.0 10472.9 10597.8 10596.3 10526.5 10581.8 10659.7 --133
02 10660.3 10789.0 10893.2 10992.1 10833.6 10936.4 11212.0 --380
03 11071.5 11183.5 11312.9 11567.3 11283.8 11458.2 11764.3 --460
04 11769.3 11920.2 12109.0 12303.3 12025.4 12213.7 12316.5 --291
05 12522.4 12761.3 12910.0 13142.9 12834.1 13036.6 12868.8 --55
06 13332.3 13603.9 13749.8 13867.5 13638.4 13814.6 13421.1 +217
07 14037.2 14208.6 14382.4 14535.0 14290.8 14451.9 13973.3 +317
08 14681.5 14651.0 14805.6 14835.2 14743.3 14712.8 14525.6 +218
09 14559.5 14394.5 14352.9 14420.3 14431.9 14448.9 15077.9 --646
10 14628.0 14721.4 14926.1 15079.9 14838.8 14992.3 15630.2 --791
11 15240.8 15285.8 15496.2 15591.9 15403.7 15542.6 16182.5 --779
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17102.9 17425.8 17719.8 17392.7 17521.7 17840.3 --448
15 17838.5 17970.4 18221.3 18331.1 18090.3 18219.3 18392.6 --302
16 18354.4 18409.1 18640.7 18799.6 18551.0 18707.2 18944.8 --394
17 18979.2 19162.6 19359.1 19588.1 19272.3 19485.4 19497.1 --225
18 19831.8 20041.0 20411.9 20658.2 20210.7 20500.6 20049.4 +161
19 20865.1 21066.1 2134?.?


New altered data starting 26 July 2019:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --344
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3
15 17849.9 17984.2 18219.4 18344.7 18099.8 18224.8
16 18350.8 18424.3 18637.3 18806.7 18554.8 18715.1
17 18991.9 19190.4 19356.6 19611.7 19287.7 19519.4
18 19918.9 20163.2 20510.2 20749.8 20335.5 20580.3
19 20897.8 21098.8 21340.2 21542.5 21194.8 21427.1
20 21726.7

New altered data starting 30 July 2020:
Yr FY Qrtr1 FY Qrtr2 FY Qrtr3 FY Qrtr4 FiscalYr CalndrYr Paced FY
12 15796.5 16019.8 16152.3 16257.2 16056.4 16197.0 16735.8 --679
13 16358.9 16569.6 16637.9 16848.7 16603.8 16784.9 17288.1 --684
14 17083.1 17104.6 17432.9 17721.7 17335.6 17527.3 17840.3 --505
15 17849.9 18003.4 18223.6 18347.4 18106.1 18238.3 18392.6 --286
16 18378.8 18470.2 18656.2 18821.4 18581.7 18745.1 18944.8 --357
17 19032.6 19237.4 19379.2 19617.3 19316.6 19543.0 19497.1 --181
18 19938.0 20242.2 20552.7 20742.7 20368.9 20611.9 20049.4 +319
19 20909.9 21115.3 21329.9 21540.3 21223.9 21433.2 20601.7 +622
20 21747.4 21561.1 19520.1

This data meshes well. Taking the average of the 4 FY Quarters produces the FY figure listed by Treasury, except for FY 2017. This is because each quarter has the data multiplied by 4, to present as a full year's rate.

Something to note: Obama constantly projected that he would generate repeated increases to GDP of over $1 Trillion from one year to the next. Yet Obamanomics never allowed growth like that to occur. Not one single year did the GDP grow by $1 Trillion. Not during Obamanomics, nor ever before. But Trump accomplishes this feat, in only his very first full year - even though Obama's overly optimistic predictions did not identify it would be possible this soon.


Peak Quarters of growth: (including all-time Top 10 prior to Trump)

328.3 FY2014 Q3
320.7 FY2018 Q1
310.5 FY2018 Q3
304.2 FY2018 Q2

288.8 FY2014 Q4
271.6 FY2006 Q2
254.4 FY2003 Q4

244.8 FY2000 Q3
238.9 FY2005 Q2
238.1 FY2017 Q4
234.4 FY2014 Q1
232.9 FY2005 Q4
223.3 FY2012 Q3
220.2 FY2015 Q3


Clearly, 2nd Quarters are a tough nut to crack. So here are top Q2s:

Using revised data of July 2020:

304.2 FY2018 Q2

271.6 FY2006 Q2

238.9 FY2005 Q2
223.3 FY2012 Q2
210.7 FY2013 Q2
205.4 FY2019 Q2
204.8 FY2017 Q2

171.4 FY2007 Q2
153.5 FY2015 Q2
150.9 FY2004 Q2

Trump is color coded Orange. Bush is color coded Green.


Peak 4 Quarter cycles of growth:

1,173.5 FY2017Q4 - 18Q3 (new data)
1,125.4 FY2018Q1-4

1004.8 FY2017Q3 - 18Q2

971.9 FY2018Q2 - 19Q1
905.4 FY2017Q2 - 18Q1

898.8 FY2014Q3 - 15Q2
873.1 FY2018Q3 - 19Q2
873.0 FY2014Q1-4

842.6 FY2005Q3 - 06Q2
841.1 FY2004Q3 - 05Q2
839.8 FY2005Q4 - 06Q3
839.6 FY2005Q1-4
837.5 FY2019Q2 - 20Q1
809.9 FY2005Q2 - 06Q1
801.0 FY2004Q4 - 05Q3

797.6 FY2019Q1-4 (est)
796.1 FY2003Q4 - 04Q3
795.9 FY2017Q1-4
795.0 FY2013Q4 - 14Q3
790.7 FY2014Q4 - 15Q3
777.2 FY2018Q4 - 19Q3
767.2 FY2016Q3 - 17Q2
753.1 FY2004Q2 - 05Q1

736.7 FY2003Q3 - 04Q2
736.0 FY2004Q1-4
734.0 FY2011Q3 - 12Q2
724.6 FY2006Q1-4
724.2 FY2013Q2 - 14Q1
723.0 FY2016Q4 - 17Q3
704.9 FY2006Q2 - 07Q1


653.8 FY2016Q2 - 17Q1 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Inauguration. The culmination of 8 years of Obamanomics.
474.0 FY2016Q1-4 - for reference comparison, the last span which ended before Trump's Election.


So far, every single 4-Quarter cycle which has ended with Trump has been above $720 Billion GDP growth, all 12 Quarters prior to Democrats Covid Lockdown starting 20 Q2.
Of Obama's 32 Quarters, only 6 did so well.
Of Bush's 32 Quarters, 11 did so well, when the GDP was a smaller size and before Obamanomics had devalued the U.S. Dollar.


So it looks clear that Trump is the only President to accomplish more than $875 Billion of GDP Growth in any 4-Quarter period. And he did it in only his very first full 4 Quarters. Apparently some here claim that this must be attributed to Bush43 - but most reasonable people can see that is fallacy.
Further, the first 5 periods of 4 full Quarters of Trump are the 5 largest such gains in history.
Which Obama succeeded in avoiding. His 23rd and 25th such periods were the best in history (using the Obamanomics devalued $), at the time (now 5th & 6th best). His 27th such period was 10th best at the time (now 15th best). Even after all his work to devalue the $, his dismal performance could not rise in that metric. His goal to lower the tide in order to make his shipwrecks stand taller did not work.
Well, one thing more clear after this new data from July 2019 is that the Mid-term Eletion of Nov 2018 has continued to bring down the economy. It would have been interesting to see how high Trump could have made it if American Voters had not decided to wreck the economy, trying to repeat what they did in 2007/2008 with the 2006 Rock-The-Vote Election creating the Rock-The-Vote Recession.

Recently, I heard that we have been Quantitative Easing in December 2019. I have not confirmed such a story, but it ticks me off nonetheless.

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Saturday, October 10, 2020 12:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Updated with the MTS for March-August 2020.


I think I will go forward with data from the Monthly Treasury Statement each month. It has already been shown that CBO distorts and Fakes their data, and the more accurate MTS is usually less than a week later.

I won't redo all the past years, but will look up the FY2019 data.
The projected Deficit numbers will continue to be from CBO, since I have not seen Treasury delve into that. I should check OMB.

https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts0819.p
df

CBO still has this new format to their report, which again tried to hide the numbers, since highly partisan Deep State CBO was too incompetent to report clearly.



This looks like an interesting resource linky:
https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/major-recurring-reports#9

https://WWW.CBO.Gov/about/press-center

Apr 2018 CBO estimate:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53821#section2


These data sources actually seem to correlate to the figures in the Budget Statements.
I'll try to post some data to breakdown how the projections progress.

The 1st column is Category and Fiscal Year. Categories are Revenue, Outlays, Surplus/Deficit (estimate) and Surplus/Deficit (Actual, or corrected). Projected is the figure that CBO projected for the FY, most recent at the time of the report. Proportional Percent is the cumulative Deficit compared to the actual FY Total. For the newest year, % Projection is based upon the historical proportion for that month of the cycle.

Each FY has 2 groups. First group is the individual month data. Second group is the cumulative Deficit for that FY so far.

Figures in Billions.

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept

Following are from Monthly Treasury Statements:

Rev19 $253 $206 $313 $340 $167 $229 $536 $232 $334 $251 $228 $374
Out19 $353 $411 $326 $331 $401 $376 $375 $440 $342 $371 $428 $291
S/D19 -100 -205 -014 +$09 -234 -147 +160 -208 -$08 -120 -200 +083

Rev19 $253 $459 $771 1111 1278 1507 2043 2275 2609 2860 3088 3462
Out19 $353 $764 1090 1421 1823 2198 2574 3014 3356 3727 4155 4447
S/D19 -100 -305 -319 -310 -544 -691 -531 -739 -747 -867 1067 -984
Projt -985 -985 -985 -897 -897 -897 -896 -896 -896 -960 -960 -960
%Pjt8 1237 1176 1104 1372 1084 -897 1072 1082 -960 -989 -927
%Pjt7 1452 1113 1015 1302 1035 -876 1031 1143 -960 1020 1056
%Pjt6 -430 -888 -864 1133 -902 -881 -880 1067 1095 -991 1008


Rev20 $246 $225 $336 $372 $189 $237 $242 $174 $241 $563 $223
Out20 $380 $434 $349 $405 $423 $356 $980 $573 1105 $626 $423
S/D20 -134 -209 $-13 $-33 -235 -119 -738 -399 -864 $-63 -200

Rev20 $246 $471 $806 1179 1367 1603 1845 2019 2260 2823 3047
Out20 $380 $814 1163 1568 1991 2347 3327 3900 5004 5631 6053
S/D20 -134 -343 -357 -389 -624 -744 1482 1880 2745 2807 3007
Projt 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008 1008
%Pjt9
%Pjt8 1
%Pjt7 14
%Pjt6 -4
notesR5520 0705 6510 8798 6649 3415 5278 9139 9968 3464 6685
notesO9988 4112 3203 8086 1315 7069 6954 9568 4471 0958 3274
notesD4468 3407 6693 9288 4666 3654 1676 0429 4503 7494 6589

CatFY Octo Nove Dece Janu Febr Marc Apri MayM June July Augu Sept


Display stabilization row:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
I was a little surprised that the revenues during this year seemed to hold up better than I expected. By Feb, the Revenues were about $100 B ahead of the last year, and then the April tax revenue was delayed until Sept.

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Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:42 PM

REAVERFAN


Trumpvilles.





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Sunday, October 11, 2020 11:03 AM

REAVERFAN






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Wed, April 17, 2024 22:02 - 364 posts
With apologies to JSF: Favorite songs (3)
Wed, April 17, 2024 20:05 - 50 posts
Share of Democratic Registrations Is Declining, but What Does It Mean?
Wed, April 17, 2024 17:51 - 4 posts
I'm surprised there's not an inflation thread yet
Tue, April 16, 2024 21:17 - 740 posts
Grifter Donald Trump Has Been Indicted And Yes Arrested; Four Times Now And Counting. Hey Jack, I Was Right
Tue, April 16, 2024 20:24 - 795 posts
I agree with everything you said, but don't tell anyone I said that
Tue, April 16, 2024 12:42 - 14 posts
Punishing Russia With Sanctions
Tue, April 16, 2024 02:04 - 504 posts
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