REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Irma

POSTED BY: WISHIMAY
UPDATED: Tuesday, September 26, 2017 22:28
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Tuesday, September 5, 2017 9:43 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry



Just starting a thread, in case Irma turns out to be unholy disaster I think it could be.

The irony here is that I have a close relative named Irma. It's entirely fitting a she gets a hurricane named after her I also have a dozen relatives that live south of Tampa. The two relatives I had in Texas had no problems with Harvey.

This is the thread for the last time a hurricane headed towards Florida(Matthew), which was October 2016.
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=60892&mid=1
017422#1017422




The southeastern United States was then hit hard by Hurricane Matthew as it moved very close to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Matthew made one official U.S. landfall on Oct. 8 southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.
In total, the storm has killed 23 people in the US, including 6 in Florida, 4 in Georgia, 2 in South Carolina, and 10 in North Carolina, and 1 in Virginia. At least five people were missing in North Carolina's Cumberland County as of October 10.
5 billion in damages so far.















It will be interesting to note the differences in a Cat 1 and a Cat 5, if she stays a 5. They were saying she could be the first to make a Cat 6, but I haven't heard anything about that since then. The winds that took off our roof in 2012 were 110 MPH winds. 150 is mind boggling.






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Tuesday, September 5, 2017 11:28 PM

BRENDA


Last I heard about Irma was that she had made Cat. 5. She'll roll right up the eastern seaboard of the US into Canada. New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia will all get hit.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 12:05 AM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


So far, she has shifted to a western path, which is a very odd one. There has only been a couple that have done it that way. Not that it couldn't swerve back east when it hits the islands, but I think Canada is safe on this one.
It looks like probably West Florida or the panhandle, maybe Alabama or Mississippi at this vague point. Unfortunately, there is another forming
where Irma did and they have already named it Jose.

BTW, The last Category 5 storm to make landfall in the Florida Keys was the Labor Day hurricane of 1935. Labor day is pretty close on this mark. Similar track too...


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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 12:14 AM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry




Here's how Cat2 and higher storms have moved around Florida


Here's how all Cat 5 storms have tracked from 1851-2014





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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 12:39 AM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:17 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Wishimay:
Here's how all Cat 5 storms have tracked from 1851-2014



2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:19 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Thanks. Those are very interesting posts!




Trump is not the problem. He set himself against the Deep State's agenda. And the Deep State's been heading for WWIII for years.
As for you, you're just a Deep State useful idiot, furthering its agenda. So I hope you enjoy cesium in your coffee. You've earned it.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:21 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.

That's an interesting take - I think those two downgraded after landfall. As you track along a path you see the dots change color. Red seems to be category 5. I'm not sure what blue is, but a lot of them turn blue then disappear.




Trump is not the problem. He set himself against the Deep State's agenda. And the Deep State's been heading for WWIII for years.
As for you, you're just a Deep State useful idiot, furthering its agenda. So I hope you enjoy cesium in your coffee. You've earned it.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 2:09 AM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by Wishimay:
Here's how all Cat 5 storms have tracked from 1851-2014



2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.



What about the ones that went through Quebec up into Labrador.

That's incredible.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 2:12 AM

BRENDA


Thanks for the info Wishi. And let's hope that she doesn't decide to swing back towards land.

Well, fingers crossed that Jose won't hit Canada either. But I know that Environment Canada will be watching.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 4:26 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.

That's an interesting take - I think those two downgraded after landfall. As you track along a path you see the dots change color. Red seems to be category 5. I'm not sure what blue is, but a lot of them turn blue then disappear.

On July 4, 1977 I watched 10 foot waves on a small inland lake, trees bent horizontal and uprooted, and nearly every road in all neighboring counties blocked by trees. It took 14 days of cutting a path thru the roads to get to a paved road - paved county roads were still only cleared in sections, depending on where the nearest chainsaw or tractor was, all travel was by boat for weeks. Not many working phones either. This was north central Wisconsin.
Nobody knew what it was that most of us survived. Everybody said it couldn't be a hurricane because they don't exist in WI. But that was the closest description anybody could think of. They ended up calling it a Downburst. Windspeed monitors that where only good for 185mph recorded those speeds before being ripped apart. It was also sudden, without any warning other than rain forecast. Less than 30 minutes from raining enough to go inside from the porch to a huge tree falling on the house we were in. It wreaked havoc on the forests for about a couple hundred mile swath.

That map shows that the Great Lakes are not as impervious to Hurricanes as I had been led to believe.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 8:35 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 8:40 AM

6STRINGJOKER


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.




Thanks for clearing that up. I think people were seeing those lines and had visions of 10 foot waves all the way up into the middle of Canada. lol

What has CGI in movies done to us?

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:05 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.



Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 1:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


It doesn't require a hurricane to be devastating, as JSF posted. There's plenty of devastating weather aside from that: blizzards and (something that Buffalo is heir to) lake effect snow which dump 10+ft in a few days; ice storms that take down the entire power grid - everything from high-tension lines to the lines that come to you home; downbursts (which can be just as bad as tornadoes, and are often mistaken for them); tornadoes; downpours and flash floods; endless searing drought; life-sucking heat waves ...

Yep, mother nature sure loves to toss us curveballs!

BTW, one big gap in reporting ... if you've been following Irma's expected path, there is one place that they never talk about, even tho the hurricane is expected to rake that island almost down its entire length, and that's Cuba. Just as you won't read about that projected path, you won't read about damage or recovery there, either.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Wednesday, September 6, 2017 2:53 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Price gougeathon has begun.

https://frontier.yahoo.com/finance/news/travelers-complain-steep-airfa
res-try-escape-hurricane-irmas-path-224013499.html



“I’m seeing the direct hit on Florida. My daughter is down at the University of Miami, so I called her and said, ‘I’m going to bring you home. If worst comes to worst, we waste money, and you don’t come home, and this thing misses you, and everything is fine.’ I logged in last night and saw $159.20 to be exact. I said you know what; this ticket is so cheap, I’m just going to buy it.”

The next day, he went back to look for a ticket for his daughter’s roommate, who is also a close family friend’s daughter. Shocked at the price increase, he said he even made sure that he didn’t click first class by accident and he also verified that the flight had pretty much the same number of seats available compared to when he checked last night.

“American Airlines had the audacity to raise the rate $800. I’m sorry. I posted it. You know, I’m angry. I think it’s horrible what they are doing. I just think it’s horrible. I’ll leave it at that.”





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Thursday, September 7, 2017 1:51 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

6 Reasons Why Hurricane Irma Could Be "The Natural Disaster Of Our Time"

Hurricane Harvey was a tragic nightmare that hit the Texas shores with force and then lingered for days, dumping truck-loads of rain on a city ill-equipped to handle it. Florida is next, and if predictions are accurate, Hurricane Irma is going to be far worse than Houston was, and worse than anyone has prepared for.

Already, Irma is setting records and being named the strongest storm the Atlantic Ocean has seen on record.

But, yep, this is all "normal variation", according to climate-shift deniers. Just expect to see historic and even geologic records broken for a long time to come, not just here but everywhere, and not just with hurricanes but blizzards and droughts. In CA we just had a drought the likes of which haven't been seen in 1500 years, followed by the rainiest year on record. Houston just had a "1000-year" flood. BC is burning like never before in history.

Quote:

Here is a short list of things meteorologists and experts at the Hurricane Center have already seen from Irma that should give everyone pause.
1. The wind speeds broke the measuring tool.
The wind was so strong when Irma passed over Barbuda that the monitoring equipment used to measure the wind was damaged and couldn’t report an accurate account of the wind speed. It tapped out at 151 mph.

2. The prospect of 185mph wind should strike fear into our hearts.
The gusts for the Category 5 storm have reached 185 mph. That’s the equivalent of an EF4 tornado sitting on an area, nonstop for hours. To put that into perspective, the photo below is of the damage sustained by residents of Garland/Rowlett, Texas after an EF4 tornado blew through in 2015.

.

To make matters worse, NOAA’s tools dropped into the hurricane to measure the storm and recorded 226mph gusts from its northeast eyewall.

7:15 PM - Whoa. Dropsonde in NE eyewall 196 knot winds just 19mb above the surface, 167 knot winds in lowest reported level. #Irma pic.twitter.com/rB31sZf61B — Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) September 5, 2017


3. No one has heard from the tiny island it hit in hours.

Finally, we did. 90% of Barbuda infrastructure is destroyed.
Quote:

Barbuda is a tiny island with barely over 1,000 residents. The top elevation on the island is 125 feet above sea level. Storm surges, however, predict waves will reach seven to 11 feet in the Northern Leeward Islands. That was worse for Turks and Caicos, which is expected to see 15- to 20-foot storm surges. As long as the surges are under 10 feet, Barbuda will be fine, but storm surges like those expected for Turks and Caicos would destroy the island.

Already, what scientists have seen from Barbuda is leaving them speechless. Tide sensors in Barbuda recently reported 7.89 feet above what the average height of the top tide is each day.

I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/B0ewFyvcSv — Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) September 5, 2017


4. Irma ripped grass from its roots.

IF true: Holy cripe!
Quote:

CNN meteorologist Chad Myers reported that there were parts of Bermuda that saw vegetation ripped from the soil, the winds were so strong. The claim hasn’t been reported by other outlets and there are no photos or video yet that show the full extent of the damage.

5. Miami isn’t prepared — no one is.
Florida is as good as it gets at handling hurricanes, similar to states that are accustomed to navigating tornadoes or weathering earthquakes. Florida citizens know how to prepare for a storm. However, the strength of Irma seems to dwarf more recent hurricanes.

Already, the city of Miami is being forced to raise its roads to accommodate rising waters creeping into the city. A report from The Atlantic notes that the last major hurricane to hit Miami was in 1926 and 400 people were killed. Back then, the city boasted 100,000 residents, but today the population is more like 6 million.

Disaster planners have long been concerned about a natural event of this magnitude hitting a major U.S. city. If Irma turns toward Florida, this could be the horrific event they’ve feared.

6. President Donald Trump only barely understands the crisis.
During a meeting with Democratic and Republican leaders, Trump acted as if he had special insider information on the severity of Hurricane Irma. All he could manage to tell them was it is “not good.”



Okay, I know that Zerohedge's stock-in-trade is scaremongering. If you read it often enough, you'll know that every day features several stories about the end of something, whether its the end of the stock market bull, the end of the dollar, or the end of western civilization itself. But sometimes the level of event justifies or even exceeds the level of fear.

If Irma rakes east coast of FL as projected, with wind speeds above 150 mph, most frame homes will be severely damaged.

Latest projected path.

http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/_docs/hurricanes.pdf

I an't help thinking of a book I read many years ago called "Mother of Storms". Parts of the book were crappy, but it did an excellent job of describing super-typhoon behavior; the author really did his homework on that topic.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 2:02 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


IIRC the Statewide average elevation for Florida is 2ft above sea level. Second only to Delaware for flatness.

Storm surge for Harvey was reported as 12 feet.

For draining away 51 inches, there doesn't seem to be much slope in Fla.

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 2:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Blub blub!

Well, nearly every place in the USA is subject to one kind of disaster or another- if it isn't hurricanes its droughts or blizzards or earthquakes (not just CA - the entire western coast. And even KANSAS, NOW WITH MORE EARTHQUAKES!!)

The only two places I can find that don't have some clearly anticipated hazard are ... well, heck, I might want to move there, may as well not start a rush!

But seeing as I moved from Buffalo to earthquake-country, I can hardly afford to be smug about people developing in hazardous areas. I think we all just need to pitch in, and possibly demand that aid be accompanied by hazard-mitigation action.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 2:24 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

6 Reasons Why Hurricane Irma Could Be "The Natural Disaster Of Our Time"

Hurricane Harvey was a tragic nightmare that hit the Texas shores with force and then lingered for days, dumping truck-loads of rain on a city ill-equipped to handle it. Florida is next, and if predictions are accurate, Hurricane Irma is going to be far worse than Houston was, and worse than anyone has prepared for.

Already, Irma is setting records and being named the strongest storm the Atlantic Ocean has seen on record.

But, yep, this is all "normal variation", according to climate-shift deniers. Just expect to see historic and even geologic records broken for a long time to come, not just here but everywhere, and not just with hurricanes but blizzards and droughts. In CA we just had a drought the likes of which haven't been seen in 1500 years, followed by the rainiest year on record. Houston just had a "1000-year" flood. BC is burning like never before in history.
Quote:

Here is a short list of things meteorologists and experts at the Hurricane Center have already seen from Irma that should give everyone pause.
1. The wind speeds broke the measuring tool.
The wind was so strong when Irma passed over Barbuda that the monitoring equipment used to measure the wind was damaged and couldn’t report an accurate account of the wind speed. It tapped out at 151 mph.

2. The prospect of 185mph wind should strike fear into our hearts.
The gusts for the Category 5 storm have reached 185 mph. That’s the equivalent of an EF4 tornado sitting on an area, nonstop for hours.

To make matters worse, NOAA’s tools dropped into the hurricane to measure the storm and recorded 226mph gusts from its northeast eyewall.

7:15 PM - Whoa. Dropsonde in NE eyewall 196 knot winds just 19mb above the surface, 167 knot winds in lowest reported level. #Irma pic.twitter.com/rB31sZf61B — Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) September 5, 2017

3. No one has heard from the tiny island it hit in hours.

Finally, we did. 90% of Barbuda infrastructure is destroyed.
Quote:

Barbuda is a tiny island with barely over 1,000 residents. The top elevation on the island is 125 feet above sea level. Storm surges, however, predict waves will reach seven to 11 feet in the Northern Leeward Islands. That was worse for Turks and Caicos, which is expected to see 15- to 20-foot storm surges. As long as the surges are under 10 feet, Barbuda will be fine, but storm surges like those expected for Turks and Caicos would destroy the island.

Already, what scientists have seen from Barbuda is leaving them speechless. Tide sensors in Barbuda recently reported 7.89 feet above what the average height of the top tide is each day.

I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/B0ewFyvcSv — Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) September 5, 2017

4. Irma ripped grass from its roots.

IF true: Holy cripe!
Quote:

CNN meteorologist Chad Myers reported that there were parts of Bermuda that saw vegetation ripped from the soil, the winds were so strong. The claim hasn’t been reported by other outlets and there are no photos or video yet that show the full extent of the damage.

5. Miami isn’t prepared — no one is.
Florida is as good as it gets at handling hurricanes, similar to states that are accustomed to navigating tornadoes or weathering earthquakes. Florida citizens know how to prepare for a storm. However, the strength of Irma seems to dwarf more recent hurricanes.

Already, the city of Miami is being forced to raise its roads to accommodate rising waters creeping into the city. A report from The Atlantic notes that the last major hurricane to hit Miami was in 1926 and 400 people were killed. Back then, the city boasted 100,000 residents, but today the population is more like 6 million.

Disaster planners have long been concerned about a natural event of this magnitude hitting a major U.S. city. If Irma turns toward Florida, this could be the horrific event they’ve feared.

6. President Donald Trump only barely understands the crisis.
During a meeting with Democratic and Republican leaders, Trump acted as if he had special insider information on the severity of Hurricane Irma. All he could manage to tell them was it is “not good.”

Okay, I know that Zerohedge's stock-in-trade is scaremongering. If you read it often enough, you'll know that every day features several stories about the end of something, whether its the end of the stock market bull, the end of the dollar, or the end of western civilization itself. But sometimes the level of event justifies or even exceeds the level of fear.

If Irma rakes east coast of FL as projected, with wind speeds above 150 mph, most frame homes will be severely damaged.

Latest projected path.

http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/_docs/hurricanes.pdf

I an't help thinking of a book I read many years ago called "Mother of Storms". Parts of the book were crappy, but it did an excellent job of describing super-typhoon behavior; the author really did his homework on that topic.



Quote:


Not sure how well our hurricane tracking was in "all of the Atlantic" in 1852 - not a bunch of planes flying around then.
Hurricanes seem to be more severe over oceans, we mostly pay attention to the ones making landfall.
Of the ones making landfall, most seem to miss major cities - despite humans striving to settle and vacation along every single piece of shoreline available.
As Second explained in the other thread, the 75% of Houston that was normal did not have a devastating problem with Harvey. Only the 25% which was intentionally designed and built to be flooded and devastated was affected.
In 1926 the Eisenhower Interstate Highway system did not exist, even around Miami.
If Miami is intentionally leaving it's roadways too low, how is that the problem of everybody else? Plant a potato, elect a potato, get a potato. Hurricane prep is certainly less priority than welfare, food stamps, hiding Illegal Aliens, supplying Obamaphones, etc.
CA has increased it's population and removed it's dams, directing fresh water to shunt directly into the ocean saltwater, bypassing water retention systems. Wonder why so few are concerned about California's whining about self-exacerbated "drought"
As I mentioned, the Downburst also broke the windspeed measuring tools. I guess that was before Global Warming quasi-pseudo-science was invented by algore. The nearest working telephone that month was a guy who's brother would be on the Nobel Laureate committee that algore took all the money for.

In the Irma track map, what are the lines of solid black and solid red?

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 3:12 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:


In the Irma track map, what are the lines of solid black and solid red?



I think the red is the median of all the projected possibilities, but in reality, the actual path can't BE projected. All anyone can do is make a good guess.

My idiot brother says he's not leaving. Just built a house last year. He thinks hurricane straps that are only rated to 150 mph will save them. He always was a cocky moron. Did I mention he's cult level religious?

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 4:07 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


You should read 'Mother of Storms' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_of_Storms for an interesting brief on 'how hurricanes work' in a sci-fi book.

From today's CNN: Triple storms: Three hurricanes now in Atlantic basin http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/06/americas/three-hurricanes-atlantic-b
asin/index.html





Trump is not the problem. He set himself against the Deep State's agenda. And the Deep State's been heading for WWIII for years.
As for you, you're just a Deep State useful idiot, furthering its agenda. So I hope you enjoy cesium in your coffee. You've earned it.

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 4:35 PM

RIVERLOVE


The eye is coming right for us. Gonna get interesting here around noon on Sunday. The fear mongering media hype is off the charts. Oh well, here we go again. Que sera sera.

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 5:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, just as a bit of an intro to myself, growing up in Buffalo - home to wild and crazy weather - my first interest was meteorology. Alas, my local university, State University at Buffalo (SUNYAB) didn't offer a meteorology degree, so I went into Chemistry. (My third love was economics - go figure!) If they had had a Met degree, that's prolly what I would have taken. Maybe even been one of those wild and crazy storm -chasers because ... what's NOT to like when you see clouds boiling and shit happening in the sky???

But I digress.

Here's how hurricanes form. Please be patient, it's a long explanation.

First, one of the problems I had with understanding meteorology is that air doesn't mix quickly. When warm air meets cold air, the warm air doesn't just mix smoothly into the cold air. Instead, when they're propelled by winds (either vertical or horizontal, usually both) they behave like invading and defending armies. Hence, the concept of "warm fronts" or "cold fronts" or "air masses". Keep that in mind, I'll refer to it.

Also, warm air rises, as anyone who has used a chimney knows.

It takes a LOT of energy (heat) to evaporate water, to propel each water molecule out of the liquid phase into the gas phase. As a corollary, water-vapor saturated air contains a lot of latent (stored) heat.

If, for some reason, warm water-vapor laden air rises, it cools. As it cools, water condenses out into small droplets, which form clouds. As water condenses out, it releases its heat. Which warms the air. Which causes the air to rise more. Which cools, condenses MORE moisture, and releases even more heat. This process continues, until NO MORE MOISTURE can be wrung out of the air mass. When that stops happening, you've reached the top of the cloud. The taller the cloud, the more heat has been stored - and released - from the air mass. This air mass doesn't just fluidly mix in with the air around it, it behaves like a vapor bubble in a boiling pot of water. It's the same kind of heat-driven phenomenon as a firestorm, but firestorms don't have as much water-vapor component. (Although pyrocumulus also form over fires, due to extreme heat and evaporated moisture)
So when you have air that is both significantly warmer and more moisture-laden than air surrounding it, it's called an "unstable" air mass ... unstable because, once it starts rising it doesn't stop until it runs out of water vapor.

With hurricanes (which form over warm ocean areas) the rising air starts acting like a chimney - it sucks in more warm, moist air from the surrounding area, pulling in more and more moisture from a larger and larger area, which lofts higher and higher into the sky. Because of the earth's rotation, the inflowing air masses don't move in a straight line, they spin, giving hurricanes a swirled appearance.

It sounds like a self-feeding process, and indeed it is a positive feedback, but there are other processes which stop hurricane formation.

The most important one is "wind shear". What wind shear means is that, at a certain altitude, the wind suddenly changes direction. When a hurricane encounters wind shear, it's like the top of the hurricane gets knocked off and blown apart: moisture and heat are removed and the upwards vertical force is depleted.
https://www.wunderground.com/education/shear.asp

The other major factor is landfall. Since hurricanes derive their energy from warm (sometimes HOT!) water, once they move over land, they're deprived of their big energy source and peter out.

******
WISHY, RIVERLOVE

Quote:

The eye is coming right for us. Gonna get interesting here around noon on Sunday. The fear mongering media hype is off the charts. Oh well, here we go again. Que sera sera.- RIVERLOVE


Quote:

My idiot brother says he's not leaving. Just built a house last year. He thinks hurricane straps that are only rated to 150 mph will save them. He always was a cocky moron. Did I mention he's cult level religious?- WISHY


Your building (or your brother's) will have a much better chance of riding out the storm if you can keep the windows intact and the roof on.

The problem with roofs ... as I'm sure you know WISHY ... is that they're shaped somewhat like wings ... upward-curving surface creates a helluvalotta lift, like an airplane wing. Hence, the straps to hold the roof on. Windows and doors pose a somewhat different problem. But either way ... whether a portion of the roof blows off, or a window breaks ... it forms a lot of turbulence, almost like a "finger" of the hurricane can reach into the building and pull it apart.

Once a window or part of a roof goes, the building usually follows pretty quickly.

I'll keep my fingers crossed for your brother WISHY and for you RIVERLOVE. Board up your windows ... it's not just to prevent the inconvenience of broken glass or to keep out looters! Please keep in touch and tell us how you're doing. If I were a prayerful person, I'd be praying for you.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 5:15 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by Brenda:
Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.



Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.



You got that right about the wind!! Opal ( '95 ) came right up from the Gulf and plowed over ATL. I've never seen so many large trees toppled, across a large area. I've seen tornadoes clear out parts of neighborhoods, but power lines and trees were down all over the place ... it was crazy.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 5:59 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Quote:

Originally posted by Brenda:
Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.

Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.

You got that right about the wind!! Opal ( '95 ) came right up from the Gulf and plowed over ATL. I've never seen so many large trees toppled, across a large area. I've seen tornadoes clear out parts of neighborhoods, but power lines and trees were down all over the place ... it was crazy.

Heard news that Miami Beach residents were ordered to leave. Storm surge of 10 feet there.

Elevation of Miami Beach is listed as 4 ft. Miami listed as 6 ft above sea level.

Heard Home Depot customers killing each other for plywood - not sure if exaggeration. Nobody can buy plywood when it's on sale? You know you're going to need it, it's Florida.

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Thursday, September 7, 2017 7:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Hey, I bet they don't do too many of THESE. Notice that the door blows open first before the house blows away.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Friday, September 8, 2017 1:00 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


News just said Irma will be down to Cat 4 before landfall, then will stay up the center of Florida.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 5:50 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, that's good news! Cat 4 is more survivable than Cat 5.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Friday, September 8, 2017 7:09 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Hey, I bet they don't do too many of THESE. Notice that the door blows open first before the house blows away.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake



Seems opening the door turns the house into a big old paper bag, and the wind just blows it off its foundation.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, September 8, 2017 7:33 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Latest predicted course has it running right into FL and then traveling up the entire state, and headed right towards ATL.

I guess the good news is that it's only gonna be a Cat 4 storm when it hits FL, and then lots of energy will be lost as it moves up the state , over land.

Unless it pushes even further west, and gets back over into the Gulf.


Yikes.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 12:11 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Quote:

Originally posted by Brenda:
Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.



Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.



You got that right about the wind!! Opal ( '95 ) came right up from the Gulf and plowed over ATL. I've never seen so many large trees toppled, across a large area. I've seen tornadoes clear out parts of neighborhoods, but power lines and trees were down all over the place ... it was crazy.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall



I'm lucky being on the west coast. We see the odd water funnel in the summer and they have been known to come on land but they rarely do much in the way of damage.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 2:31 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
News just said Irma will be down to Cat 4 before landfall, then will stay up the center of Florida.




It's only a few MPH shy of still being a five and the water off Florida is unseasonably warm right now. Last week my aunt said that the heat index was 102.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 3:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, no doubt there's going to be hell to pay all up and down FL, and Atlanta also looks to take a direct hit, altho by then Irma won't be catastrophic, merely damaging.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Friday, September 8, 2017 6:08 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


The storm surge in some areas is expected to be higher than the average residential rooftop.

One lesson from Katrina - keep an ax and several LED flashlights handy. When you've stood on your sofa, and then crawled into the attic space, and the water keeps rising, you might need to chop a hole in the roof to escape. Assuming, of course that the roof is still in one piece.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Friday, September 8, 2017 6:16 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Where is the Jose thread?
Heard Jose is going to wreak havoc on the Keys.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 6:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by AURaptor:
Latest predicted course has it running right into FL and then traveling up the entire state, and headed right towards ATL.

I guess the good news is that it's only gonna be a Cat 4 storm when it hits FL, and then lots of energy will be lost as it moves up the state , over land.

Unless it pushes even further west, and gets back over into the Gulf.


Yikes.

The graph I saw showed it down to Cat 3 before getting out of Fla.

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Friday, September 8, 2017 6:35 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Where is the Jose thread?
Heard Jose is going to wreak havoc on the Keys.



Jose is supposed to head to the mid-Atlantic, but we'll see. Might interrupt shipping...

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 1:44 AM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


I've been telling people all week that I thought this one was going around to west Fla like 1935, and now they say it is. My bro texted me that he left this morning, finally. And that he was heading towards Orlando, which I hear is a parking lot. The farmers here are mowing the corn down at a furious pace, in case the rain heads this way. I've never seen them mow it still partially green before. Going to be a bad weedy sneezy spring.

Came home to a woman in my driveway putting signs in people's yards trying to get them to sign a petition to keep from zoning us.

"They'll make us put in sewer!"
-Ok, some people here need to do that anyway. Poop regulation is a good thing...

"They can build big buildings everywhere"
-It's so they can put in a gas station. These idiots are fighting against gas stations. That this area DESPERATELY NEEDS.

"They'll take away farmland!"
-Wow, a few acres? SO what.


Then, the big argue...

"I DON'T WANT DAMN FERRENERS HERE"

Hubby is wearing his work shirt, keep in mind he works for a notorious foreign company... He points to the logo and says "You mean, like these guys?"

I swear, the thought that this was a foreign owned company never crossed her pea brain. I actually saw the thought cross her mind from one side to the other...


"Oh... yeah....my son works there..."



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Saturday, September 9, 2017 3:22 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Wishimay:
I've been telling people all week that I thought this one was going around to west Fla like 1935, and now they say it is. My bro texted me that he left this morning, finally. And that he was heading towards Orlando, which I hear is a parking lot. The farmers here are mowing the corn down at a furious pace, in case the rain heads this way. I've never seen them mow it still partially green before. Going to be a bad weedy sneezy spring.

Came home to a woman in my driveway putting signs in people's yards trying to get them to sign a petition to keep from zoning us.

"They'll make us put in sewer!"
-Ok, some people here need to do that anyway. Poop regulation is a good thing...

"They can build big buildings everywhere"
-It's so they can put in a gas station. These idiots are fighting against gas stations. That this area DESPERATELY NEEDS.

"They'll take away farmland!"
-Wow, a few acres? SO what.


Then, the big argue...

"I DON'T WANT DAMN FERRENERS HERE"

Hubby is wearing his work shirt, keep in mind he works for a notorious foreign company... He points to the logo and says "You mean, like these guys?"

I swear, the thought that this was a foreign owned company never crossed her pea brain. I actually saw the thought cross her mind from one side to the other...

"Oh... yeah....my son works there..."

Could you see her thought echo and ricochet around?

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 8:27 AM

RIVERLOVE


Turned on the tv at 8 am .... lo and behold, we're not in the cone of death anymore! The overly-cautious cowardly bastards issued mandatory evacuations to 3 million people along the east side of So. Fla., and once again they were fucking wrong.

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 8:40 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, no doubt there's going to be hell to pay all up and down FL, and Atlanta also looks to take a direct hit, altho by then Irma won't be catastrophic, merely damaging.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake



Yes, it won't ( hopefully ) be a direct hit, but then again, aren't the stronger winds to the starboard side of the storm ? I know the surge is worst on that side, as the winds are blowing into the land, while on the port side, they're actually blowing water out to sea, but on land I guess it's kinda a moot point, so...

Just think, they didn't even plot this storm to make landfall until S. Carolina, and now look at it !

Weather is hard to predict.... just sayin'.


* Riverlove - Congrats for being out of the cone of death and destruction, but hurricanes are fickle. Kinda have to give the politicos half a break, but concerning a massive event like this, the motto ' When in doubt, get out " usually applies.


Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

I'm just a red pill guy in a room full of blue pill addicts.

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 2:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


So which weatherguessers guessed better?

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 3:03 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I've hypothesized recently that both tornado and hurricane paths are hard to predict because they're moving over an essentially frictionless surface. The things that influence their paths are air-related, and small turbulences or differences in pressure that we don't see, can (frictionlessly) steer them in another direction. It's like trying to predict the path of smoke.











Trump is not the problem. He set himself against the Deep State's agenda. And the Deep State's been heading for WWIII for years.
As for you, you're just a Deep State useful idiot, furthering its agenda. So I hope you enjoy cesium in your coffee. You've earned it.

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 5:43 PM

WISHIMAY

There will be fire and brimstone and Earth will be destroyed!... in several billion years!----------------------------------------- "Well, so long Earth. Thanks for the air... and what-not." -Philip J. Fry


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So which weatherguessers guessed better?




Well, it's still going to hit Miami. The storm is about 220 miles across and the bottom width of Florida is about 120. The fact that the eye isn't hitting Miami won't make much of a difference...they will still get the rain. They will still flood. Probably still get 100 mph winds, at least.

I read today that all hurricanes once they get a certain distance from the equator will turn, a little like the swirling in a toilet.

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Saturday, September 9, 2017 11:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by Wishimay:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So which weatherguessers guessed better?


Well, it's still going to hit Miami. The storm is about 220 miles across and the bottom width of Florida is about 120. The fact that the eye isn't hitting Miami won't make much of a difference...they will still get the rain. They will still flood. Probably still get 100 mph winds, at least.

I read today that all hurricanes once they get a certain distance from the equator will turn, a little like the swirling in a toilet.



Even if they get 51 inches of precipitation in 2 days, that's still better than having Storm Surge to the level of most roofs.

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Sunday, September 10, 2017 5:25 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Just heard a climatologist correcting news readers, saying Irma is now a Cat 3.

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Sunday, September 10, 2017 6:59 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Most of the houses in southern Florida weren’t built to today’s hurricane codes. And Hurricane Irma has a lot more stuff to destroy than Hurricane Andrew did 25 years ago.

After Andrew destroyed more than 125,000 of Florida’s homes in 1992, state authorities realized that structures needed to be built stronger. Since 1994, southern Florida homes have had to meet new requirements that ensure they withstand the winds and flooding risks of at least a category 3 hurricane. More sweeping statewide legislation was added in 2001.

In what will be the greatest test of the new homes’ strength, Hurricane Irma, expected to be the strongest hurricane since Andrew, is projected to hit Florida early Sunday morning. But since these regulations only apply to buildings constructed since the law took effect, a majority of southern Florida homes may not be equipped to handle Irma’s havoc.

Less than 28% percent of homes in Miami-Dade county have been built to the 1994 codes, according to the 2015 American Community Survey. The rest of the homes there are old stock, which may, or may not, be strong enough to withstand the storm.

If St. Martin and other Caribbean islands, which are just assessing the destruction as Irma leaves their shores, show any indication of the hurricane’s strength, aluminum mobile homes reinforced with plywood don’t stand a chance. Some islands saw 20-30% of structures totally destroyed. The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, has said 95% of structures were damaged in some way.

https://qz.com/1073551

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, September 10, 2017 11:24 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Most of the houses in southern Florida weren’t built to today’s hurricane codes. And Hurricane Irma has a lot more stuff to destroy than Hurricane Andrew did 25 years ago.

After Andrew destroyed more than 125,000 of Florida’s homes in 1992, state authorities realized that structures needed to be built stronger. Since 1994, southern Florida homes have had to meet new requirements that ensure they withstand the winds and flooding risks of at least a category 3 hurricane. More sweeping statewide legislation was added in 2001.

In what will be the greatest test of the new homes’ strength, Hurricane Irma, expected to be the strongest hurricane since Andrew, is projected to hit Florida early Sunday morning. But since these regulations only apply to buildings constructed since the law took effect, a majority of southern Florida homes may not be equipped to handle Irma’s havoc.

Less than 28% percent of homes in Miami-Dade county have been built to the 1994 codes, according to the 2015 American Community Survey. The rest of the homes there are old stock, which may, or may not, be strong enough to withstand the storm.

If St. Martin and other Caribbean islands, which are just assessing the destruction as Irma leaves their shores, show any indication of the hurricane’s strength, aluminum mobile homes reinforced with plywood don’t stand a chance. Some islands saw 20-30% of structures totally destroyed. The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, has said 95% of structures were damaged in some way.

https://qz.com/1073551

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Makes one wonder how Seminoles and other Native Americans survived hurricanes for centuries. They had teepees, right? No permanent structures in Fla, what's the highest ground in the peninsula? No weatherguessers except medicinemen and spirit dancers?

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