The Mid-Term Elections 2018 by JEWELSTAITEFAN

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The Mid-Term Elections 2018

POSTED BY: JEWELSTAITEFAN
UPDATED: Tuesday, September 17, 2019 22:06
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 27140
PAGE 9 of 11

Sunday, November 4, 2018 1:19 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/30/us-borrowing-pace-top-trill
ion-this-year-highest-since/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.763a00d4571b

What the heck is net marketable borrowing?
The Federal government will borrow $4.3 trillion in 2018. $3 trillion of that is debt that is simply debt being rolled over because the bond, note, or bill matured in 2018. Subtract $3 from $4.3 to get $1.3 trillion
in “net marketable borrowing”.
That $1.3 trillion goes into Trump’s bank account and my account as tax cuts,
which is nice for me, Trump, and his friends.
Quote:
Privately-held "net marketable borrowing" excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account (SOMA), but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm535

So the $3 Trillion maturing are from Obamanomics spending explosion?

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 1:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Updating with new polls:

I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.

435 Seats up for Election.

The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.

Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.

Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.

If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.

Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.

If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.

Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.

The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17

The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC

The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC

The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT

The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT

The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 Dem 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC

If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.

Tossups add 15 R, and 12 D. This brings totals to D216 R216, with 3 Ties.

But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.

So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D216 R219.

But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be ~~D213 R222.~~ D212 R223.

And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be ~~D206 R229.~~ D205 R230.

Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.

2 days to go.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 1:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Reposting for top of the page convenience:

So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.

With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.

No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.

Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.

Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32

Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32

So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.

Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 7%, 49-42
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 3%, 46-43 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43

Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40

Without Tossups, pundit consensus is ~~D45 R48.~~ D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be ~~D41 R48.~~ D40 R48.

Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44

FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be ~~D41 R59.~~ D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 1:39 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP

6 days to go.
I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP

4 days to go.

Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.

2 days to go.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 1:41 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

So the $3 Trillion maturing are from Obamanomics spending explosion?

No. Bonds issued by Reagan, Bush I, Bush II, and Trump, who issued Treasury bills with 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week terms. Debts Trump ran up in his first year are coming to maturity right now.

President Reagan increased the debt by 186 percent. Reaganomics added $1.86 trillion. Reagan's brand of supply-side economics didn't grow the economy enough to offset the lost revenue from its tax cuts. He issued 30 year bonds that are coming to maturity right now.

George H.W. Bush added $1.554 trillion, a 54-percent increase from the $2.857 trillion debt at the end of Reagan's last budget, FY 1989. More debts coming to maturity right now.

President George W. Bush added $5.849 trillion. Bush increased the debt by 101 percent from where it started at $5.8 trillion on September 30, 2001. More debts coming to maturity right now.

As projected in the FY 2019 budget, Trump plans to add $4.775 trillion to the debt. Because the economy has been booming, there should be no debt. There should be a surplus. But that's not happen, is it?

www.thebalance.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 2:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.

The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.

I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 2:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.

The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.

I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.

You pulled that out of your ass, JewelStaiteFan. Where are your many citations, not just one or two, to prove this is not another one of your turds?

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 4:49 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I saw a news story which quoted 538 as of 2 November as having D217 R200 T18. Which is not what that 270towin site is showing for 538.

Sounds like pollsters are playing hide-the-results so that nobody will know what they are actually predicting, so they cannot be nailed down with their failures.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 4:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

No reason to argue about any of this at this point, I figure.

We're all going to know what the deal is in a few days.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 5:57 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

You forget that campaigns and parties have their own internal polling. They don't depend on publicly available results. So if there's any deliberate spin, it's all for our benefit.
Now, the internal polling conducted may or may nor be accurate. Apparently Hillary and the DNC both predicted she would win, which is why the loss came as such a PERSONAL shock to Hillary.

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I saw somebody make mention which reminded me of strategy.

The Pollsters know what the real bias is, they are just not going to report it. They hope to sway some races by presenting the biased results in a way to affect the spending.
Let's say both sides Want to spend their campaign coffers on the tipping points, the tight races, 1 or 2% margin. So if the polls report those races as 8% Dem, then those are no longer viewed as the group at the tipping point. But if the races which are really going to be won by 8% for GoP are presented as 1%, then those are erroneously viewed as the tipping point group, and the GoP can waste all that cash on races which are already won. And therefore not spend cash on the races which could actually be affected.

I'm not sure if I had remembered to explain that here yet.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 6:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Why doesn't this graph show Iraq and Afghanistan war spending, which was going full tilt in the early 2000's? Something's not right.

tic tac

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 8:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:

Why doesn't this graph show Iraq and Afghanistan war spending, which was going full tilt in the early 2000's? Something's not right.

tic tac

Part of the reason I asked about it.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 8:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I am interested if this Election will follow or buck the trend.

Since 1992, Mid-terms have Averaged a 17 Seat gain in the House for Republicans.

Excluding the Rock-The-Vote mistake, it's been a 27 Seat gain each Mid-term on average.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 8:52 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Updating with new polls:

I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.

435 Seats up for Election.

The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.

Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.

Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.

If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.

Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.

If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.

Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.

The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17

The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC

The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC

The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT

The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT

The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 12%, 51-39 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC

If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.

Tossups add 17 R, and 10 D. This brings totals to D214 R218, with 3 Ties.

But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.

So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D214 R221.

But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be ~~D213 R222.~~ D212 R223.

And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be ~~D206 R229.~~ D205 R230.

Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.

2 days to go.

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Sunday, November 4, 2018 11:39 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
Today 538 changed to D217 R199 T19 D49 R50, calling MO for Dems. Leaving only NV as Tossup.
And Daily Kos to D206 R201 T28.

There are also 2 new maps for the House on 270towin. Consensus Map, and Battleground Map.
D209 R197 T29 Consensus
D190 R164 T81 Battleground

They just added new Maps to the Senate side, which are named the same, but they're weird. The Battlegrounds are D43 R47 and Tossups are including ND (GoP 16%) and WV (GoP 4%), but not NJ (GoP 5%).

RCP NTU changed to D48 R52, flipping FL.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico.
D217 R199 T19 D49 R50 538
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D204 R199 T32 D44 R50 RCP

6 days to go.
I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP

4 days to go.

Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.

2 days to go.

And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.

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Monday, November 5, 2018 3:06 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I will admit that I learned something this Election season. Or, at least, reminded myself of it.

I normally don't track the polls much before Elections, just hear as bout them on MSM, look closely if something sounds off. I already understand what is going to be the result, once I learned decades ago how to translate them.

But the last few weeks I have been tracking them for this thread.

I've learned that this is a tedious and boring task. It is mind numbing - and I love Math (although not accounting). Reading all these lies all the time is depressing, probably why I haven't been subjecting myself to it each season.
I had kind of forgotten about this mental attitude warfare.

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Monday, November 5, 2018 5:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I will admit that I learned something this Election season. Or, at least, reminded myself of it.

I normally don't track the polls much before Elections, just hear as bout them on MSM, look closely if something sounds off. I already understand what is going to be the result, once I learned decades ago how to translate them.

But the last few weeks I have been tracking them for this thread.

I've learned that this is a tedious and boring task. It is mind numbing - and I love Math (although not accounting). Reading all these lies all the time is depressing, probably why I haven't been subjecting myself to it each season.
I had kind of forgotten about this mental attitude warfare.

It sure is boring.

Really can't wait for it to be over. Then I go back to work and forget all about it until next time.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 5, 2018 3:00 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP

4 days to go.
Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.

2 days to go.

And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.

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Monday, November 5, 2018 6:53 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

AFTER FAILED HACKING ATTEMPT, SOS LAUNCHES INVESTIGATION INTO GEORGIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Quote:
ATLANTA – After a failed attempt to hack the state's voter registration system, the Secretary of State's office opened an investigation into the Democratic Party of Georgia on the evening of Saturday, November 3, 2018. Federal partners, including the Department of Homeland Security and Federal Bureau of Investigation, were immediately alerted.

"While we cannot comment on the specifics of an ongoing investigation, I can confirm that the Democratic Party of Georgia is under investigation for possible cyber crimes," said Candice Broce, Press Secretary. "We can also confirm that no personal data was breached and our system remains secure."

Source: Official Georgia .gov Website

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/general/after_failed_hacking_attempt_sos_l
aunches_investigation_into_georgia_democratic_party_

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 5, 2018 8:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

One thing I've noticed is that there is hardly any polling data to go by with a lot of these house races, and a lot of it is so old as to be irrelevant at this point.

Just as a random "toss up" example of this, I'm looking at California's 10th District now here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ca/california_10th
_district_denham_vs_harder-6360.html

Quote:
NY Times/Siena 10/21 - 10/25 501 LV 4.9 47 45 Harder +2
Berkeley IGS 9/16 - 9/23 726 LV 5.0 50 45 Harder +5

Only two polls? Really?

Here's Arizona's 1st District: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/az/arizona_1st_dis
trict_rogers_vs_ohalleran-6342.html

There isn't a single poll on record! I guess we're just guessing here.

No wonder Nate Silver is coming out in the 11th hour basically saying that everything is a toss up. These were literally just the first two random races that I clicked on in the Toss Up category. The third one that I clicked on was Minnesota's 7th District and there's no polling data on record for that one either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 5, 2018 10:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I am a little surprised the polls have not shifted in the past weeks.

This usually means the Pollsters are doubling down on their bias. Then they will be "surprised" at Election Day results.

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Monday, November 5, 2018 11:13 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.

I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.

Can somebody explain this?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 5, 2018 11:18 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.

I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.

Can somebody explain this?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You are supposed to just believe.
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.

What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?

Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 12:38 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.

I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.

Can somebody explain this?

Do Right, Be Right. :)
You are supposed to just believe.
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.

What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?

Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.

My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.

The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 12:40 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I kept forgetting to mention that Sean Hannity had identified races on his site, which he felt were the most critical.

These are his top 30, and I included the other data from my prior posts:

CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
FL-27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
GA-7
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-1
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
NC-2
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-5
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 12:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Then again....

I may have been right all along that most people intending to vote Republican in 2018 just aren't saying shit about it and we get a big surprise and the GOP picks up seats in both the house and the senate.

I don't think it's very likely that GOP house power actually increases tomorrow, but it is a possibility.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 12:54 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What I'm seeing is quite a few of these races have predicted decisions on them but aren't supported by any polling data whatsoever.

I can't wrap my head around any "scientific" basis of these predictions when there is literally no data to back them up at all.

Can somebody explain this?

Do Right, Be Right. :)
You are supposed to just believe.
Now you are lifting the curtain, which is verboten.

What do you think will be the D/R totals in Senate after the Election? House?

Did you notice Fienstein has 9% lead with less than 40% of the vote? That would be great for America if she loses.

My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.

The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 1:05 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)

I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 1:47 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)

I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.

There you go. Set in stone. lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 1:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.

The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?

That's kind of in the 50/50 thing. I don't know what to think because there is no data supporting a lot of the races. As in Zero data.

It's blatantly obvious when you know this that the MSM and the websites tracking this are full of shit, but I'm not going to right a wrong with another wrong and pretend to know what is actually going to happen tomorrow. It's really a matter of how many lazy people get up off their ass tomorrow and how many don't.

I think it's ultimately good for the Republicans in 2020 either way, so I'm not even going to put myself out there and give a house prediction other than to say that I don't think there is going to be any huge lead by Democrats if they do manage to eek out a small victory.

I think they're delusional if they believe they're going to pull off a 39 seat gain.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 2:18 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Hey 6ix, can you quote this post? (Or whoever gets to it first)

I will say D40 R60 and D at least 185 in the House, R at least 230.

There you go. Set in stone. lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Thanks.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 2:20 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My prediction for the Senate is 54R/46D.

The house is a crap shoot. I can't even give a prediction there at all based off of the lack of data. I've got to give it a complete 50/50. Since a lot of the predictions right now weigh heavily in favor of Democrats even thought there is no actual data backing them up, I can only say that their optimism is largely unfounded. They may very well take control of the house, but it would be by a very small amount if it happens is my guess.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
So you are saying D217 R218? Or D218 R217?

That's kind of in the 50/50 thing. I don't know what to think because there is no data supporting a lot of the races. As in Zero data.

It's blatantly obvious when you know this that the MSM and the websites tracking this are full of shit, but I'm not going to right a wrong with another wrong and pretend to know what is actually going to happen tomorrow. It's really a matter of how many lazy people get up off their ass tomorrow and how many don't.

I think it's ultimately good for the Republicans in 2020 either way, so I'm not even going to put myself out there and give a house prediction other than to say that I don't think there is going to be any huge lead by Democrats if they do manage to eek out a small victory.

I think they're delusional if they believe they're going to pull off a 39 seat gain.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I think this means they have succeeded in warping your mind.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 2:37 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:07 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

No feels.

You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:26 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP

4 days to go.
Today RCP changed to D202 R196 T37.

2 days to go.

And by the end of the day RCP changed to D202 R195 T38.

Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP

1 day to go.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 5:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
No feels.

You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.

My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.

BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 6:05 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
No feels.

You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.

My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.

BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.

I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 6:08 AM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
I see that at 270towin the pundit called Inside Elections is calling D46 R51, which is the first I saw calling a GoP Majority Senate.
RCP has changed to D203 R196 T36. While 7 days ago it was D205 R199 T31.
538 is now D216 R199 T20, and the Dark Blue is back to 192. And D48 R50, with AZ now the Tossup with NV.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R49 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D216 R199 T20 D48 R50 538 (Tossups NV, AZ)
D209 R197 T29 D43 R48 Cook
D203 R196 T36 D44 R50 TCP

4 days to go.
Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP

1 day to go.

Today Crystal Ball changed to D48 R52. I have not notated tracking of that pundit, but 52 is the highest number from that site. They have IN, MO going GoP. And also D229 R206.
And RCP is now D203 R194 T38 D43 R49.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 6:39 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
No feels.

You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.

My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.

BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.

I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.

RCP shows quite a few of the races without any polling data whatsoever, is my point.

I don't see how they were getting any numbers at all on races without polls, so for anybody else to say that they have different numbers without any data is just as much of a joke, IMO.

My remark about Optimus is that you've regularly shown them giving Republicans a solid lead in the house, but in your last post you show them giving the Democrats a 10 seat advantage.

Did they flip last minute, or was that a typo?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:30 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I guess we'll see tomorrow.

And I'll add that any of your wild predictions the other way are based off of nothing but feels too. You have no evidence to support your claims either.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
No feels.

You could review my most recent summary of the House races. And the Senate summary.
I'll admit I would not be surprised with D37 R63. With WI, OH, MN(S) going GoP.

My point being that there are numbers you have about the house are pulled out of thin air because a lot of those races don't have any polling data whatsoever.

BTW... I'm sure on your last post you have the D and R counts mixed up for Optimus.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Those numbers for Optimus have been posted on 270towin for about a week without change.

I only posted leads and percentages from polls of each race. Mostly from that site, or RCP. Some I had to use search engine. I did not post any figures unless a poll stated those numbers.

RCP shows quite a few of the races without any polling data whatsoever, is my point.

I don't see how they were getting any numbers at all on races without polls, so for anybody else to say that they have different numbers without any data is just as much of a joke, IMO.

My remark about Optimus is that you've regularly shown them giving Republicans a solid lead in the house, but in your last post you show them giving the Democrats a 10 seat advantage.

Did they flip last minute, or was that a typo?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

As noted in the summaries I have provided, the big flip for Optimus occurred on 23 October.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:
Here's an interesting website regarding house races https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election-predictions/
Lettuce note for posterity what their predictions are for this date:

Daily Kos D205 R202
CNN D206 R201
Optimus D203 R219
Politico D209 R200
538 D213 R208
Cook D207 R197

Remember, some people consider these to have no bias.
Crosstab is still at 197 Dark Blue.

Remember, 220 is a majority in the House. 218 has control.
Today 538 changed to D220 R197 T18. And 193 Dark Blue.
Cook to D210 R195 T30.
Consensus to D210 R197 T28.
Battleground changed to D190 R162 T83.
RCP to D202 R194 T39 D43 R50. And NTU to D49 R51, with all Tossups going Dem except MO. That is AZ, IN, FL, NV, MT, WV.
The Crosstab changed to 201 Dark Blue.

So that is:

D206 R201 T28 D44 R50 Daily Kos
D206 R199 T30 D45 R50 CNN
D208 R198 T29 Optimus
D208 R199 T28 D45 R50 Politico
D220 R197 T18 D48 R50 538
D210 R195 T30 D43 R48 Cook
D202 R194 T39 D43 R50 RCP

1 day to go.

Election Day.
Today Crystal Ball changed to D48 R52. I have not notated tracking of that pundit, but 52 is the highest number from that site. They have IN, MO going GoP. And also D229 R206.
And RCP is now D203 R194 T38 D43 R49.

And RCP NTU changed to D47 R53.
Optimus is D210 R194 T31
Daily Kos is D206 R200 T29
Politico is D216 R197 T22
CNN is D207 R197 T31

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:48 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Updated with new polls:
Michigan Senate. Stabenow 3%, 49-46.
Montana Senate. Dem 1%, 50-49.

So while reading polls which already have a Lib/Dem bias, if GoP has only a 16% lead, they are not considered Safe. But if a Dem has 8% or 14% lead, they are considered Safe.
As well, if GoP has a measly 6% lead, with more than 50%, that is proclaimed to be a Tossup. But if Dems have a whopping 3% lead, with no more than 46%, that is proclaimed to be a Dem win. (Even with less than 41%)
No bias here, folks. Just ignore that man behind the curtain.

With 9 days to go, this seems a decent time to summarize. I'll try the Senate first.

No Senate races:
NH, OR, ID, SD, AL, GA, SC, NC, CO, KS, OK, AR, LA, IL, IA, KY, AK.
D23, R42 Senate Seats not up for Election in 2018.

Senate Seats most pundits consider Safe for Dems (12):
WA 14%, 53-39
NM 8%, 40-28-32
MN(1) 9%, 50-41
VA, NY, MD, DE, MA, CT, RI, CA, HI.

Safe for Independents (2):
VT,
ME 9%, 41-27-32

Safe for GoP (4):
UT, WY,
NE 15%, 54-39
MS(1) 28%, 60-32

So, if those Predictions are to be believed, D37 R46 is the total without Battlegrounds.

Seats most pundits are calling for Dem win, not included above (8):
PA 5%, 51-46
MN(S) 3%, 46-43
MI 3%, 49-46
WV 5%, 45-40 this was moved to Tossup after this summary was originally posted
MT 1%, 50-49 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
NJ 5%, 47-42 this was moved to tossup after this summary was originally posted
WI 9%, 53-44 (Conservative was underpolled 14% in the Primary)
OH 6%, 49-43

Seats most pundits are calling for GoP win, not including above (2):
MS(S) 9%, 38-29
ND(FLIP) 16%, 56-40

Without Tossups, pundit consensus is ~~D45 R48.~~ D42 R48
Without the obvious bias highlighted above, this would be ~~D41 R48.~~ D40 R48.

Which leaves the Tossups, which Liberals must tweek and filter to conjure a Dem Majority (meaning no more than 1 of these Tossups is won by GoP):
FL Tied, 46-46
AZ GoP 7%, 52-45
NV GoP 6%, 47-41
MO GoP 4%, 48-44
IN GoP 4%, 47-43
TX GoP 10%, 52-42
TN GoP 8%, 52-44

FL polls are bouncing all over.
So, what are the odds that these 6 "tossup" States which all have GoP leading will have most flip to Dem?
If those figures continue, we would have D45 R55 or D46 R54, dependant upon FL.
If the 4 States highlighted above are in the midst of their "shifted left" biased polling, then Senate could be ~~D41 R59.~~ D40 R60. Oooops.
That would preserve the Dems avoidance of GoP Supermajority.
With WA lost to the weak-minded Mail Voting, it will likely stay Dem.
If ME, PA, NJ vote GoP, then they would become part of the Supermajority and get all kinds of prosperity.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 4:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Updating with a few polls I missed:

I'll try to summarize the House at this point.
It's a lot more stuff, and I may not be able to update.
I've already shown the bias and tilt, so I may skip that part.

435 Seats up for Election.

The data for grouping and race ID I could access from Daily Kos. The Poll data of percentages is from Real Clear Politics.

Daily Kos has D206 R200.
Proclaimed Safe for Dems are 187.
Considered Safe for GoP are 149.

Proclaimed Likely Dem are additional 6, including 5 current D and 1 current R which would flip.
Considered Likely GoP are additional 27, including 26 current R.

If those are to be believed, then that is D193 R176 without looking at percieved Battlegrounds.

Proclaimed Leaning Dem are additional 13, including 3 current D, and 9 current R which would all flip.
Considered Leaning GoP are additional 24, including 1 current D which would be a flip, plus 22 current R.

If those numbers continue, that gets to the D206 R200. If that holds, then Dems need 12 more to gain Control of the House. And then GoP need 18 to retain Control.

Leaving 29 proclaimed as Tossup, comprised of 1 current D, and 28 current R.

The Likely D which is currently R:
PA-17

The Leaning D which are currently D:
NH-1 Open Dem 5%, 40-35 DJT
NV-3 Open Dem 2%, 41-39 DJT
NV-4 Open Dem 2%, 36-34. HC

The Leaning D which are current R:
AZ-2 Open Dem 11%, 50-39 HC
CA-49 Open Dem 7%, 51-44 HC
CO-6 Dem 9%, 47-38 HC
FL27 Open GoP 2%, 44-42 HC
IA-1 Dem 5%, 43-38 DJT
KS-3 Dem 9%, 48-39 HC
MI-11 Open Tie, 48-48 DJT
NJ-11 Open Dem 11%, 49-38 DJT
VA-10 Dem 7%, 48-41 HC

The Leaning R which is currently D:
MN-8 Open GoP 15%, 49-34 DJT

The Tossup which is currently D:
MN-1 Open Dem 2%, 47-45 DJT

The so-called Tossups which are currently R:
CA-10 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
CA-25 GoP 4%, 48-44 HC
CA-39 OPEN Dem 1%, 47-46 HC
CA-45 Dem 2% 48-46 HC
CA-48 GoP 2%, 50-48 HC
FL-26 GoP 1%, 46-45 HC
IA-3 Dem 1%, 46-45 DJT
IL-6 Dem 2%, 47-45 HC
KS-2 OPEN Dem 4%, 35-31 DJT
KY-6 GoP 1%, 47-46
ME-2 Tie, 41-41 DJT
MI-8 GoP 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-2 Dem 3%, 48-45 DJT
MN-3 Dem 5%, 49-44 HC
NC-9 OPEN GoP 5%, 47-42
NJ-3 GoP 1%, 45-44 DJT
NJ-7 Dem 2%, 49-47
NM-2 OPEN GoP 1%, 46-45 DJT
NY-19 GoP 1%, 44-43 DJT
NY-22 GoP 1%, 46-45
OH-1 GoP 9%, 50-41 DJT
PA-1 GoP 1%, 47-46 HC
TX-7 GoP 1%, 46-45
TX-32 GoP 1%, 48-47 HC
UT-4 Tie, 45-45
VA-2 GoP 7%, 50-43 DJT
VA-7 GoP 2%, 46-44 DJT
WA-8 GoP 10% 49-39 HC

If we pretend the polls were dead on, and only skip Ties, then the Leading D group lose 2, making the call D204 R201.

Tossups add 17 R, and 10 D. This brings totals to D214 R218, with 3 Ties.

But the highly biased polls make the assumption of poll accuracy a complete fallacy.

So, if the Ties only go to R, then that would be D214 R221.

But if the polls are only biased by 1%, then the 3 Seats polled as Dem 1% would be R. This would be ~~D213 R222.~~ D212 R223.

And if the polls are only biased by 2%, then correcting the column of the 7 Seats polling at 2% would be ~~D206 R229.~~ D205 R230.

Obviously, individual races do not conform to the aggregate model. But with the polls already biased, only the Dems fear of GoP House Control prevent the realistic application of the figures and trends.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 7:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

Man....

Looking at the map starting to get filled in and it really kind of sucks having to go into work tonight. Something about tracking the colors and the percentages really scratches my OCD itch.

Then again, I've had about enough of this race. I'm looking forward to exorcising my demons on 120 palettes of water and soda. Looks like if I don't cut back on my eating I'm going to pack a few pounds on my days off when it's cold, so I've got a little extra gas in the tank tonight.

Good luck to everybody, and just realize it's all a rigged game and the results don't really matter at the end of the day. Try not to burn anything down, attacking people or hurting yourself if the numbers don't go the way you want them.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

750,000 votes in for Indiana now and that's only around 33%. That sounds like a huge turnout to me for a mid-term election since there are 4,536,903 total registered voters.

......

Yup. Just checked and saw that in 2014, Indiana was dead last in the country for voter turnout with only 28% of registered voters actually voting.

We're looking at roughly 49% voter turnout in Indiana for 2018 compared to 28% in 2014.

Donnelly is so screwed. He's down around 14 points now, with CNN updating the percent counted to 40% as I wrote this part.

RCP showed Donnelley with an aggregate of 1.3 pts in favor of Donnelly. This might not be indicative of the trending in both the house and the senate across the nation, but it's fairly safe to say at this point that the polls were VERY wrong on this one.

-------

On the House front in Indiana:

No change. None was really expected. Any of the races that aren't already projected as GOP wins lean heavily in favor of the GOP with at least 20% of the vote in. Only Indiana's 2nd district was even on the map as "Likely GOP" and with 20% reporting..... Nevermind... Just looked again and now 73% is in and CNN declared the GOP incumbent the winner.

The two districts which were Democrat weren't on anybody's radar as possible flips, and they're both already easily going to remain Democrat. That's Gary and Indianapolis for ya.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:32 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Looking at that 270towin Live coverage map is funny.

They already called VA, VT Senate for Dems. But then they retracted those, leaving every Senate race uncalled.

Boy, they got gumption.

At Fox News Website, The FL Senate had 93% in with 13K vote lead (GoP), and now they still have 93% in, but lead is 25K.
I heard FL has a record number of Absentee Ballots, so that might not get called for days.

MI, NJ Senate are already going to GoP, without voting results posted.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:43 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

With East Coast polls closed, 270 had only a D40 R23 Lead in the House. But then they retracted to D22 R23.

Dems should have hoped for a huge pile of House Seats from the East Coast. Because they're gonna lose a pile between the Coasts.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 9:57 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

I was listening to a radio show which transferred to Fox News Radio coverage. That show is overrun by Libtards, all whining about how All the Dems are losing everywhere.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tonight had the worst news coverage I've ever seen.

All major networks had Election coverage instead of normal programming. Websites are apparently frozen, locked up, or not updated.

The network TV coverage was adamant in refusing to show any maps of the nation with the races won or lost. They all harped on and on about any minor Dem gain, and outright ignored any races won by GoP.

As cheerleaders for Dems, MSM was adequate, but they completely abdicated any pretense of reporting any news.

At this point I have no idea who won or lost where.

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Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:45 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

We watched Air Disasters while votes were being tallied.

Quote:
Democrats Win Control Of US House As Republicans Keep Senate

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/first-exit-polls-arrive-all-
eyes-are-indiana-and-kentucky

That means that Nunes' investigation will be stalled. I hope the Senate can take over what he was doing. The House will probably dog Trump over what I think of as trivia, but I also hope Trump can shake that off and continue with his meetings with Putin and Xi Jinping and his other (peace) initiatives and immigration policies.

Aside from that, what might make a big difference in 2020 is who controls the state legislatures and governorships, because THAT will make a difference for redistricting when the Census results come out. I need to look at when (in the year) redistricting happens as opposed to when the elections happen.

Gonna go look at the results for my state and hometown. I got called by a volunteer asking me if I had any questions for XXX, a candidate for city council, and I said I wanted to know was her thoughts on McMansions, and he said ... "That's a good question, I'll put her on", so I got to talk to her directly! She won my vote.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876

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