REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump 2020?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, August 22, 2019 10:23
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Tuesday, August 20, 2019 12:10 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Start placing your bets here!

I'm of the opinion that Trump's re-election chances hinge on the economy. I don't think they would be derailed by a "recession", but if something catastrophic were to happen financially, like in 2008, that would be the end of his chances.

Many people are predicting a recession, and by that I mean an ordinary garden-variety recession. While the following article contains some stupid "reasons" why "experts believe that a US crisis is imminent (Experts believe a US crisis is imminent because [some] experts believe that a US crisis is imminent) many of the indictators are credible.

Quote:

11 Reasons Why So Many Experts Believe That A U.S. Economic Crisis Is Imminent
August 19, 2019 by Michael Snyder

The numbers are telling us that we have never been closer to the next recession than we are right now. The storm clouds that were gathering on the horizon are now directly above us, and suddenly the mainstream media is filled with stories about when the next recession will begin and the effect that this may have on President Trump’s chances of winning in 2020. In fact, there has been so much chatter about this that even President Trump is talking about it. All over television, experts are breathlessly speculating about when the coming recession will begin, and they are dispensing lots of advice about how people should be preparing for it.

So what evidence has led so many of these talking heads to come to such a conclusion?

Well, the following are 11 reasons why so many experts now believe that a U.S. economic crisis is imminent…

#1 Last week, the “spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields” turned negative for the very first time in 12 years. An inversion of the yield curve has occurred prior to every single U.S. recession since the 1950s, and this is one of the most important economic signals that we have seen yet.

#2 U.S. consumer sentiment just fell to the lowest level that we have seen in all of 2019.

#3 74 percent of the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics believe that a recession will begin in the United States by the end of 2021.

This is one of those self-referential "reasons".

Quote:

#4 U.S. industrial production just slipped back into contraction territory.

#5 The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index just fell to the lowest level that we have seen since September 2009.

#6 Just like we witnessed in 2008, fear and volatility have returned to Wall Street in a major way. In fact, so far this month we have already seen the 4th and 7th largest single day point declines in U.S. stock market history.

#7 The total number of bankruptcy filings in the United States has been steadily shooting up, and it rose another 5 percent during the month of July.

#8 Major U.S. retailers continue to shut down more stores, and we have continued to stay on a pace that would break the all-time record for store closings in a single year.

#9 As I discussed yesterday, on a year over year basis U.S. freight shipment volume has now fallen for 8 months in a row.

#10 According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the probability that a recession will happen within the next 12 months is now the highest that it has been since the last financial crisis.

Another self-referential reason

Quote:

#11 President Trump is suggesting that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 100 basis points and that the Fed should restart quantitative easing as soon as possible. Both of those moves would be considered to be “emergency measures” that should only happen if a major economic downturn was imminent.

In that list, I didn’t even mention our rapidly escalating trade war with China. The two largest economies on the entire planet are engaged in an extremely bitter trade dispute, and that alone has the potential to plunge the entire global economy into a very deep downturn.

On the surface, the Trump administration is trying to assure us that everything is going to be just fine, but behind the scenes they appear to be preparing for the worst. For example, we have just learned that the Trump administration is actually considering pushing for an emergency payroll tax cut…

Several senior White House officials have begun discussing whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut as a way to arrest an economic slowdown, three people familiar with the discussions said, revealing the growing concerns by President Donald Trump’s top economic aides.

The talks are still in their early stages, and the officials have not decided whether to formally push Congress to approve the cut, these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to disclose internal discussions. But the White House in recent days has begun searching for proposals that could halt a slowing economy.


If the U.S. economy really was “booming”, an emergency payroll tax cut wouldn’t make any sense at all.

But if we are on the verge of a very serious economic crisis, then such a move would make perfect sense.

Of course the U.S. is definitely not the only major economy that is facing serious troubles. In fact, signs of economic trouble have been emerging all over the globe lately…

The economies in Germany, Brazil, Italy, Mexico and a number of other countries are also showing vulnerabilities, experts say. The uncertainty is exacerbated by fears of the potential financial fallout that could happen if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in October without first reaching a deal on the terms of its departure.

In particular, developments in Germany are quite troubling. Their economy actually contracted last quarter, and the German government is “preparing to embrace new fiscal stimulus measures should its economy stumble into a deep recession”…

Nearly two weeks after Der Spiegel sent its first trial balloon about the prospects that the German government might crank up its fiscal stimulus if Europe’s largest economy slides into recession (which, as we explained last week, is already on the cusp of doing), the trial balloons have crossed the Atlantic.

Bloomberg reported on Monday that the German government is preparing to embrace new fiscal stimulus measures should its economy stumble into a deep recession, “citing two people with direct knowledge of the matter.”


We haven’t seen talk like this in a very, very long time. For many people, the extreme pain caused by the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 has almost faded from memory, but the truth is that many experts believe that what is ahead is going to be even worse.

If everything was going to be just fine, President Trump would not be trying to get the Federal Reserve to make extremely deep interest rate cuts. In life, what people do is far more important than what they say, and the moves that global leaders are making right now are telling us that huge trouble is coming.

So enjoy the relative stability that we are currently experiencing while you still can, because it looks like it won’t be lasting for too much longer.


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Tuesday, August 20, 2019 1:10 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Trump, but only with the help of Russia and the Dems.
The sooner the Dems pick a candidate the better their chances would be, but it really doesn't matter. Election security is sh*t, voting machines are digital sieves. Might as well slap a sticker on them that says, "Please don't hack!" And even with some public outcry it's too little too late - McConnell and Trump and their minions have shot down any effort to harden them.

Too many very wealthy and very powerful people have profited mightily off this first term without paying any price for it, so I think they're like, "fuk it, worked the first time. And now we know even better what to do."

Any discussion about this election that doesn't acknowledge those basic facts is just cover, ignorance or lying imho.

I wonder what Trump will trade for it this time?

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Tuesday, August 20, 2019 2:10 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I too think it hinges on the economy.

Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
The sooner the Dems pick a candidate the better their chances would be, but it really doesn't matter.

It does but it doesn't matter! I think that covers all the bases! Aside from that, it's so ambivalent I can't figure out what it's trying to convey.
Quote:

Election security is sh*t, voting machines are digital sieves. Might as well slap a sticker on them that says, "Please don't hack!"
And they've been that way since 2000 and 'black box voting'. That's 16 years and two presidents before Trump. So what are you trying to say, exactly?
Quote:

Too many very wealthy and very powerful people have profited mightily off this first term without paying any price for it, so I think they're like, "fuk it, worked the first time. And now we know even better what to do."
And these people are NOT Russians?
Quote:

I wonder what Trump will trade for it this time?
I dunno, what did he trade for it last time? With whom did he trade?



These statements are like code to me. I read their words, but I can't get their messages. Too much seems assumed and therefore left out.

And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Trump, but only with the help of Russia and the Dems.
The sooner the Dems pick a candidate the better their chances would be, but it really doesn't matter. Election security is sh*t, voting machines are digital sieves. Might as well slap a sticker on them that says, "Please don't hack!" And even with some public outcry it's too little too late - McConnell and Trump and their minions have shot down any effort to harden them.



Kiss my ass dude. Republican voters were saying the same thing when Obama won both times all the way back in 2008. Democrats didn't do anything about it back then, Republicans don't do anything about it now.

It's bi-partisan fuckery, and whatever side loses gets to use it as something to bitch about.

Co-mingled with your bullshit Russian narrative you'll have been running for 4 years straight, it might even be a louder bitch this time than the Electoral College which is going to spank whoever Trump is running against even harder than last time.



The only thing you got right in your last post is that the Democrats themselves are going to make Trump win.


The sooner you purge that other bullshit from your brain and focus on that, the better the chance that your party might be able to salvage this election season and at least put up a fight that isn't a complete embarrassment.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 12:30 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I too think it hinges on the economy.



I've said it before in a few other threads, but I'll say it again in case anybody missed it.

The economy won't hurt Trump's re-election chances no matter if it's doing great or it takes a sharp nosedive before the election. In fact, his re-election chances will probably increase if the economy tanks.

Again, this is 100% because of the Democrats that are currently debating on stage in 2019.

Ask yourself how you think the message of reparations, freebies for everyone and open borders resulting in even more freebies for people who weren't even here before the election is going to play if the DOW falls 50% again and unemployment gets to 10% again like it did in 2009.

That message is falling flat with nearly all independent voters right now in what is allegedly a great economy (*cough* *cough* bullshit *cough* cough*).

At the end of the day, that's really their only message in the debates too.


Oh yeah, and Bernie Sanders wants to start a war against "White Nationalism", whatever that is too.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 1:23 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I think if the economy tanks in what looks like a serious way, it'll depend on who's got the better message at the time. Trump may have some 'splanin to do. And there's always a chance dems will recalibrate their message (remember, nobody's been picked yet!) either on their own or in the face of a bad economy. So, I don't think it's a slam-dunk if the economy tanks. There are too many things in my mind that are imponderables.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 2:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Biden's only shot really is if the economy tanks, assuming he doesn't go full retard SJW before the General. He is the only Neo-Liberal up there, and they tend to do well after a recession strikes during a Republican administration.

I still think that Buttigieg is the Democrat's best shot at beating Trump, whether the economy tanks or not. But since he's hanging around at around 5% now and possibly even being passed up by idiot O'Rourke, it's not looking good.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 3:18 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


O'Rourke. I hope he'll be weeded out, from his phony Kennedy haircut to his phony nickname Beto.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 9:10 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Ask yourself how you think the message of reparations, freebies for everyone and open borders resulting in even more freebies for people who weren't even here before the election is going to play if the DOW falls 50% again and unemployment gets to 10% again like it did in 2009.



"reparations, freebies for everyone and open borders..."

None of which are true - you're just reposting Fox BS. You should work for Trump. Actually, you are and for free.

Wait - speaking of freebies, weren't you a big Alex Wang fan because he promised to send a freebie every month for doing nothing? Almost like reparations for the unemployed even.

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Wednesday, August 21, 2019 10:19 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Ask yourself how you think the message of reparations, freebies for everyone and open borders resulting in even more freebies for people who weren't even here before the election is going to play if the DOW falls 50% again and unemployment gets to 10% again like it did in 2009.



"reparations, freebies for everyone and open borders..."

None of which are true - you're just reposting Fox BS. You should work for Trump. Actually, you are and for free.



It absolutely is true. Don't bother trying to convince me or anybody who isn't a radical leftist otherwise. We're not voting for the Democratic candidate anyhow.

And what would you know about it anyway. You're the one person on this board who has outright come out and said they weren't watching the debates. What a laugh.

I don't now, nor have I ever been part of the Fox viewership. You'll note that I never quote Fox News as a source here either.

Quote:

Wait - speaking of freebies, weren't you a big Alex Wang fan because he promised to send a freebie every month for doing nothing?


Yup. And I was talked out of it by a lot of sound logic that it wasn't going to be feesable to do because there was no scenario put forth that would pay for it.

Unlike you, I have a brain and I'm not a static character and I can listen to facts presented and a good case made without constant insults and I can change my mind. It's called being an adult.

Quote:

Almost like reparations for the unemployed even.


Nope. Everybody would get it. Even Donald Trump. Epstein would have gotten it too if somebody didn't murder him.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, August 22, 2019 9:26 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

It absolutely is true. Don't bother trying to convince me or anybody who isn't a radical leftist otherwise. We're not voting for the Democratic candidate anyhow.



Really?? Not voting straight Democratic ticket? How many people use your account btw? So many flavors of stupid.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
And what would you know about it anyway. You're the one person on this board who has outright come out and said they weren't watching the debates. What a laugh.



It is pretty funny to think that you think the only way to know what the Dem party stands for is to watch the debates on cnn. "Open Borders" are just stupid and so are reparations. There might be one or 2 that put out trial balloons but those will never happen.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I don't now, nor have I ever been part of the Fox viewership. You'll note that I never quote Fox News as a source here either.



So? You don't have to watch them to be quoting Fox BS that you contracted from some youtube channel.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:And I was talked out of it by a lot of sound logic ...


lol *gasp* - can't laugh hard enough at that one.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Unlike you, I have a brain and I'm not a static character and I can listen to facts presented and a good case made without constant insults and I can change my mind. It's called being an adult.



^So, which one is that? Are we talking to the 12 year old Jack now?

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Almost like reparations for the unemployed even.

Nope. Everybody would get it. Even Donald Trump. Epstein would have gotten it too if somebody didn't murder him.



Nope. Rich people getting an extra $12k could care less about that stuff. That is for the poor an unemployed. Think about it: that's a huge population segment that never votes. You think someone making $18k or less or someone without a job is going to drag their @ss out of bed to go vote for Trump or Biden? They'll wake up a 2am though, for check for $12k. And who would blame them? If you want to give Wang credit, give him credit for finding a way to unlock those votes, and see it for what it really is.

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Thursday, August 22, 2019 9:28 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Well...

Nothing in that reply worth wasting any time on this morning.

As you were.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, August 22, 2019 10:23 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Well...

Nothing in that reply worth wasting any time on this morning.

As you were.



lol

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