REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Thursday, October 12, 2023 02:05
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 115034
PAGE 32 of 57

Thursday, May 7, 2020 5:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


There's a 50% chance that this entire Coomph manufactured panic is just a means for Soros to fuck more little boys at pizza shops.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, May 7, 2020 8:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
While gain of function research was being done on bat coronaviruses in the Wuhan lab, it was actually being FUNDED by Fauci's group.


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:

waiting for the Hillary Soros Obama connection.

#WEARABRAIN

Are you disputing a fact?

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Thursday, May 7, 2020 9:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v2

Quote:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/health/coronavirus-antibody-prevale
nce.html


After Recovery From the Coronavirus, Most People Carry Antibodies

But most antibody tests are fraught with false positives — picking up antibody signals where there are none. The new study relied on a test developed by Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, that has a less than 1 percent chance of producing false-positive results.

Researchers at Mount Sinai tested people who signed up to be donors of convalescent plasma, antibodies extracted from blood.The team tested 624 people who had tested positive for the virus and had recovered. At first, just 511 of them had high antibody levels; 42 had low levels; and 71 had none. When 64 of the subjects with weak or no levels were retested more than a week later, however, all but three had at least some antibodies.

... the researchers included another 719 people in their study who suspected they had Covid-19 based on symptoms and exposure to the virus ... The majority of these people — 62 percent — did not seem to have antibodies.

An antibody survey conducted by New York State officials found that 20 percent of city residents had been infected.

Another finding from the study — that diagnostic PCR tests can be positive up to 28 days after the start of infection — is also important, Dr. Wang said.







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Friday, May 8, 2020 8:36 AM

JAYNEZTOWN


Massive Recession coming for Socialist Swedistan?

Sweden sees higher coronavirus death rate than US after refusing lockdown

https://nypost.com/2020/05/07/sweden-sees-higher-death-rate-than-us-af
ter-refusing-lockdowns
/

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
I think Sweden is fucked]






I feel Sweden is a leftist house of cards, a life built a flase ideas

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Friday, May 8, 2020 9:32 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Massive Recession coming for Socialist Swedistan?

Sweden sees higher coronavirus death rate than US after refusing lockdown



How are you tying these two ideas together?



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 8, 2020 11:12 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


While Sweden has been touted as the 'do nothing' country to emulate, the REAL 'do nothing' country is Brazil.

Maybe we should copy them?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/americas/brazil-coronavirus-bolsona
ro-response-intl/index.html


Bolsonaro continues to dismiss Covid-19 threat as cases skyrocket in Brazil


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Friday, May 8, 2020 11:18 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
While Sweden has been touted as the 'do nothing' country to emulate, the REAL 'do nothing' country is Brazil.

Maybe we should copy them?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/americas/brazil-coronavirus-bolsona
ro-response-intl/index.html


Bolsonaro continues to dismiss Covid-19 threat as cases skyrocket in Brazil






How is CNN a legitimate news source all of the sudden, Kool Aid Karen?

Oh. That's right... because it's saying what you want it to say.

You do know that this is the only reason that CNN exists, right? For confirmation bias? I guess it's your turn to have your biases confirmed now?


209.5 Million people live in Brazil. 9,146 people dead.

OH NOEZ!!!! IT'S THE END OF BRAZIL!!!!!



Meanwhile, in reality...

8,977 babies born in Brazil every day.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 8, 2020 10:41 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


I have no love for the conservative government in power in Australia nor our happy clappy Christian pm but I think the difference between how it was handled here and in the us/uk was the respect given to health experts

https://www.theage.com.au/national/three-decisions-and-a-two-point-pla
n-how-australia-got-on-top-of-covid-19-20200508-p54rag.html



Edit - helps that our leaders are not batshit crazy/ruthless/lying/narcissitic as trump

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Friday, May 8, 2020 11:59 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


JACK, I suppose you'd consider all the sources below illegitimate as well because they all have the same facts that you can't stand. Well, there goes yet another one of your lies about me and my supposed love of CNN just because it confirms my biases. With all this reporting of the same facts, either your entire fabrication is false, or media from around the globe is catering to little ol' moi with my little ol' biases.

https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/brazil/lancet-magazine-consider
s-bolsonaro-the-greatest-threat-to-brazils-response-to-covid-19
/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/bolsonaro-faces-pol
itical-upheaval-while-covid-19-ravages-brazil

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro
-idUSKBN22I360

https://news.yahoo.com/biggest-threat-brazil-coronavirus-response-1615
33423.html

https://www.newsweek.com/brazilian-president-bolsonaro-plans-30-person
-bbq-despite-coronavirus-guidelines-1502778

https://www.stltoday.com/news/world/bolsonaro-continues-to-dismiss-cov
id-19-threat-as-cases-skyrocket-in-brazil/article_d6f976db-3034-56b8-b10c-ed293ecaf7f5.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/29/so-what-bolsonaro-shrugs
-off-brazil-rising-coronavirus-death-toll

https://www.wionews.com/world/brazil-reports-one-day-record-of-751-cor
onavirus-deaths-297555

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/brazil-has-one-day-record-of-751-
coronavirus-deaths-10222-plus-new-cases/ar-BB13OMkd

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52351636

Quote:

209.5 Million people live in Brazil. 9,146 people dead.
Let's get back to this is a week or two.


Meanwhile, in reality ... we know, JACK. You want to see lots of people die. Except for here in the US where it might be a reelection problem. Unless they're what you think of as old, and weak, and ready to kick off anyway ... and you think other people can be convinced to write them off like you do. So it's makes it politically OK for lots of 'them' to die! In which case - no reelection problems!

Did I catch all the circles you think in?

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Saturday, May 9, 2020 6:37 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86401

With COVID-19, We Must Know Which Prevention Measures Worked
— Probably some didn't, so let's stop doing them

(U)nderstanding what we want to do implies knowing the value of the "what." And the value of our public health recommendations that lead to the "what." This is why I am writing.

When the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dies down, we must know why. In times of urgency, we rightly throw a basket of interventions at a problem hoping something will work.

(But) Some interventions will be more effective than others. Some might be counterproductive if people practice them instead of more effective measures. Coming home from the store, throwing our clothes into the washing machine and showering, will be good for soap manufacturers but not for stopping spread of coronavirus. We must know what has been effective and how effective. We can then prioritize the most useful interventions and eliminate bad ones.

What if mask use were 70% as effective in preventing cases as social distancing? We might then not close businesses or schools but we'd want 100% of people to wear masks, and do so appropriately. And how effective was closing the economy vs other measures? What if contact tracing, now being ramped up, added another 20% to mask usage so that mask use and contact tracing achieved 90% of what closing the economy did? Mask use and contract tracing could even be more effective than social distancing.

We need to know the magnitude of modes of possible virus transmission and which of our prevention recommendations (and subsequent adoption by the public) most effectively stop that transmission. If Americans stay 6 feet apart, or stay home, or wear masks, or abandon the handshake, or whatever, we need to know how effective each is in preventing SARS CoV-2 infection, and versus other measures. We can learn from our own national, state, or even local efforts, and from the efforts of other countries.

Difficult questions but ones that we must get answers for. While something is working to lower infection rates, we do not fully know what. The time to begin collecting this information was yesterday. We must know when recommendations were made and to what extent the public practiced them. Otherwise, finding associations between infection rates and adoption of interventions becomes difficult ...

Hopefully, my former colleagues at CDC and the World Health Organization have been making such efforts and will have answers, even if imperfect. If not, we shall be repeating the unpalatable basket of interventions if a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 hits, if things don't go well after states open, or if another virus appears in future years. Tens of millions of Americans have lost jobs to SARS-CoV-2. The public will not be anxious to repeat the entire basket again.


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Saturday, May 9, 2020 7:10 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Don't Listen to Conspiracy Theories. Here's Why COVID-19 Isn't the Flu
— An emergency physician's firsthand account
by J. Michael Wilson, MD, MPH, MSHS May 6, 2020



Forgive this doctor's moments of weakness. Today is a particularly hard day. I'm exhausted. Mentally, physically, emotionally, and spiritually. For the most part, it's part of the job. But over the last few days, as different parts of the country have started "opening up," I have had to listen to folks, some even friends of mine, carry on with an extra dose of "hoax talk." Conspiracy theories. Fanciful tales of the deep state, socialism, and tyranny.

I can tolerate most of it. But if I have to listen to one more person tell me about how COVID has been no worse than the flu, I may just lose my ever-lovin' mind.

I don't need to hear a bunch of stats today comparing the flu to COVID. There are so many flaws in the stats that get thrown around comparing flu to COVID-19. But here is one doctor's perspective on the flu versus coronavirus.

I have taken care of COVID patients in several places and under different circumstances -- not just in New York City.

I've treated hundreds if not thousands of flu patients over the years; however:

• • I've never held the hand of a young, otherwise healthy, mother as I watched her die of the flu.
• • I've never once had a patient with the flu tell me about how the rest of his family died from the flu.
• • I've never just stood there and watched a patient with the flu struggle to breathe and feel completely helpless, knowing there is little I can do to ease their suffering.
• • I've never in my career seen so many people die from the flu in such a short period of time that they had to be buried in mass graves because there was no place to put so many bodies.
• • I've never had to arrange a FaceTime call for a patient dying from the flu, so the family could say goodbye or figure out how I can wheel their bed to a glass door so their family can wave goodbye.
• • I've never had an entire service of patients who had the flu, were treated and recovered, even pronounced "flu-free" and not be able to discharge them because their friends, families, homes, and support structure are afraid of them.
• • I've never watched a patient with the flu struggle to breathe with oxygen saturations in the 70s and had to make myself NOT put them on a ventilator because if I did it would likely kill them.
• • I've never gone to work during flu season and worried that I might catch the flu and die or that my choice of profession treating the flu would endanger my family.
• • I've never endured stories of my colleagues dropping out during a shift and being put on a ventilator due to the flu.
I have rarely had a patient with the flu that I couldn't make at least a little better.
• • I've never had my world shut down completely due to flu season coming. Conversely, I've never been terrified that increased public activity during flu season was going to kill thousands more people (maybe I should have).
• • Finally, I've never once treated a patient with the flu like they were a walking hazmat scene, through barriers of Tyvek, respirators, goggles, and gloves.

If you know me, you know I have no agenda here. I'm not a politician. I'm not a big pharma rep. I'm just a community emergency physician. But I am a real emergency physician. One who sees sick corona patients. I'm not an urgent care doctor holding a press conference and manipulating data for personal gain. I am actually unemployed myself due to COVID-19. Volumes in emergency departments across the country have plummeted. I and thousands of other ED staff have lost their jobs. I actually would have a financial interest to try and contribute to all the rhetoric that downplays this terrible disease.

I'm not flashy. I don't have some magic homeopathic potion to sell out of my clinic that will protect you or cure you if you have COVID-19. And I'm not telling you what you want to hear. So, unfortunately, this post won't get much traction in the social media world.

What I can tell you is this: I am one voice speaking for thousands and thousands of ER doctors like myself who actually do take care of this real disease in real patients. I'm not someone trying to take away freedom. I just want to keep people safe.

Forgive this doctor's moments of weakness, and God bless anyone that feels the same. It's awfully heavy some days.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86339


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Saturday, May 9, 2020 7:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63629

But somewhat on the topic:

Of course there are the people who deny anything is wrong and want everything just opened up without caution or concern.

But most people are squeezed - between their fear of catching SARS-COV-2 or maybe even passing it on to a loved one - and their need to work - and the piss-poor government response to a historic crisis.

I think if people thought the government reliably had their backs with the emergency relief checks or unemployment or the Payment Protection Program they wouldn't be so stressed. Or if there were realistic (#wearamask) requirements for helping people stay safe as they went back to work they wouldn't be so stressed. But there seems to be nothing. 10M still haven't received their relief checks. Unemployment is swamped and weeks behind. The PPP is inadequate and often misdirected. And there seems to be no positive protection people can use to stay safe besides hoping other people can and will keep their distance and hoping no one coughs on you. And we've seen how well that works at meat packing plants.

People are left dangling, to fend for themselves.

BTW I don't see a lot of people who've lost their employment being depressed over this, I see them being royally pissed off.


My PERSONAL opinion is that people should be allowed to vote in a referendum as to when and how their states should reopen. There are too many people with a vital interest in this to leave it to political pressure groups. And mandatory masks and available hand sanitizers or gloves should be on the list of options to choose, if the majority decides that's how to reopen.

most recent poll numbers:
https://apnews.com/9ed271ca13012d3b77a2b631c1979ce1
AP-NORC poll: Few Americans support easing virus protections
About 8 in 10 Americans say they support measures that include requiring Americans to stay in their homes and limiting gatherings to 10 people or fewer — numbers that have largely held steady over the past few weeks.
While the poll reveals that the feelings behind the protests that materialized in the past week or so in battleground states such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are held by only a small fraction of Americans, it does find signs that Republicans are, like President Donald Trump, becoming more bullish on reopening aspects of public life.



As State Reopens, Ohio Urges Employers To Snitch On Workers Who Stay Home Over Virus Fears

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/state-reopens-ohio-urges-employers
-snitch-workers-who-stay-home-over-covid-19-concerns


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Saturday, May 9, 2020 7:27 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf
Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation,Policy Recommendations
https://rs-delve.github.io/reports/2020/05/04/face-masks-for-the-gener
al-public.html

Face Masks for the General Public




https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-shut-down-covid-19-infections-wou
ld-plummet-if-80-americans-just-wore-masks-according


Why Shut Down? COVID-19 Infections Would Plummet If 80% Of Americans Just Wore Masks According To Study

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Saturday, May 9, 2020 9:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Don't Listen to Conspiracy Theories. Here's Why COVID-19 Isn't the Flu
— An emergency physician's firsthand account
by J. Michael Wilson, MD, MPH, MSHS May 6, 2020



Forgive this doctor's moments of weakness. Today is a particularly hard day. I'm exhausted. Mentally, physically, emotionally, and spiritually. For the most part, it's part of the job. But over the last few days, as different parts of the country have started "opening up," I have had to listen to folks, some even friends of mine, carry on with an extra dose of "hoax talk." Conspiracy theories. Fanciful tales of the deep state, socialism, and tyranny.

I can tolerate most of it. But if I have to listen to one more person tell me about how COVID has been no worse than the flu, I may just lose my ever-lovin' mind.

I don't need to hear a bunch of stats today comparing the flu to COVID. There are so many flaws in the stats that get thrown around comparing flu to COVID-19. But here is one doctor's perspective on the flu versus coronavirus.

Too much reality for SOME (ahem!) people!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 6:24 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, checking in on places that are meaninful (to me)

I still go to 91-divoc for a quick view on how things are going ... There are two stats that follow: Total deaths per million and weekly averaged new deaths per million.

How is SWEDEN, the darling of the anti-lockdwon crowd, faring? Well, in terms of total deaths per million it's definitively surpassed the Netherlands, Ireland, and the USA, and is on-track to catch up to France, which was a well-stablished shit show.

But when looking at totals, it's diffiuclt to see trends, especially at the higher end of the chart. For that, I look at weekly average new deaths. What I find is that while many nations have had more new deaths/week/MM than Sweden, their new deaths have downturned sharply. Belgiumm for example was as high as 30 new deaths/week/MM but has dropped to 10. Spain was as high as 20 new deaths/week/MM but has since dropped to 4 and still dropping, and Italy was as high as about 14 new deaths/week/MM and has also dropped to 4 and still dropping. SWEDEN otoh got as high as 10 new detahs/week/MM but seems to have plateaued at 8. It looks like Sweden will stay at that level for the foreseeable future.

Curiously, CANADA seems to be following the SWEDISH trend, having plateaued at about 4.5 and still seems to be rising slightly.

Given the sudden spike in new deaths/week/MM for some nations, it's easy to see why they chose "lockdown" as a circuit-breaker to stop a situation that had spiraled out of control. What that shows is that, while every nation is NOT uniquely different, there are certainly categories of economies, population densities etc that cause nations to have radically different experience with this virus than other nations in a different category, justifying different responses.

*****

Meanwhile, in CA ... CALIFORNIA is noodling along at 2 new deaths/week/MM. That is compared to NEW YORK, which hit a peak of 70 but has since dropped to 20.

Once economies are "opened up" again, especially without the supplies necessary for everyone to mask up, unless this virus throttles back in summer or miraculusly mutates to a less-virulent form, we will probably see an increase in new deaths once again. Rate dependent on the average exposure that each person experiences.

Of course, it won't happen right away since it takes about a week for people to become symptomatic and about a month to progress to death, so I'll be looking for a change is stats about a month from now.

Also, as KIKI and other have pointed out, these stats are easy to fudge. It's incredily easy to undercount Covid-19 deaths since testing is still in very short supply, and people who die at home or assisted-living facilities typically aren't tested and confirmed.

So "excess deaths" is another good stat to look at.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 8:17 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I don't need to hear a bunch of stats today comparing the flu to COVID. There are so many flaws in the stats that get thrown around comparing flu to COVID-19. But here is one doctor's perspective on the flu versus coronavirus.

I have taken care of COVID patients in several places and under different circumstances -- not just in New York City.

I've treated hundreds if not thousands of flu patients over the years; however:

• • I've never held the hand of a young, otherwise healthy, mother as I watched her die of the flu.
• • I've never once had a patient with the flu tell me about how the rest of his family died from the flu.
• • I've never just stood there and watched a patient with the flu struggle to breathe and feel completely helpless, knowing there is little I can do to ease their suffering.
• • I've never in my career seen so many people die from the flu in such a short period of time that they had to be buried in mass graves because there was no place to put so many bodies.
• • I've never had to arrange a FaceTime call for a patient dying from the flu, so the family could say goodbye or figure out how I can wheel their bed to a glass door so their family can wave goodbye.
• • I've never had an entire service of patients who had the flu, were treated and recovered, even pronounced "flu-free" and not be able to discharge them because their friends, families, homes, and support structure are afraid of them.
• • I've never watched a patient with the flu struggle to breathe with oxygen saturations in the 70s and had to make myself NOT put them on a ventilator because if I did it would likely kill them.
• • I've never gone to work during flu season and worried that I might catch the flu and die or that my choice of profession treating the flu would endanger my family.
• • I've never endured stories of my colleagues dropping out during a shift and being put on a ventilator due to the flu.
I have rarely had a patient with the flu that I couldn't make at least a little better.
• • I've never had my world shut down completely due to flu season coming. Conversely, I've never been terrified that increased public activity during flu season was going to kill thousands more people (maybe I should have).
• • Finally, I've never once treated a patient with the flu like they were a walking hazmat scene, through barriers of Tyvek, respirators, goggles, and gloves.



Thanks for that - been looking for some specifics as to why it's "not the flu." This first hand experience cuts right through any data fog.

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 1:13 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


There are flattened curves and there are flattened curves.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXpK8ktXkAAtIbh?format=jpg&name=small

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 1:48 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Inhaling nitric oxide gas* may be an effective - and equally important - generic and CHEAP COVID-19 treatment. (*note: nitric oxide gas is NOT nitrous oxide gas, which is also known as laughing gas)

Nitric Oxide, BCG, and COVID-19's Weakness

Several device companies have recently received FDA's blessing for emergency expanded access to offer inhaled nitric oxide gas for treating COVID-19. During the 2003 SARS outbreak, inhalation of nitric oxide improved lung oxygenation and shortened the length of ventilatory support. Aside from improving lung function, nitric oxide also showed direct antiviral activity as well as druggable targets including nitrosylating cysteine of viral protease to interfering with S-protein-ACE-2 interaction. Inhaled nitric oxide provided to COVID-19 infected patients will likely prove to be lifesaving through both a pulmonary vasodilator effect and a direct antiviral effect.

The BCG vaccine once used around the world in an attempt to vaccinate against TB may have a generally immuno-protective effect against infections including SARS-COV-2. (The US doesn't vaccinate with BCG because it doesn't provide specific protection against TB but does make TB skin tests positive, rendering them worthless for TB screening.)

Several device companies have recently received FDA's blessing for emergency expanded access to offer inhaled nitric oxide gas for treating COVID-19. During the 2003 SARS outbreak, inhalation of nitric oxide improved lung oxygenation and shortened the length of ventilatory support. Aside from improving lung function, nitric oxide also showed direct antiviral activity as well as druggable targets including nitrosylating cysteine of viral protease to interfering with S-protein-ACE-2 interaction. Inhaled nitric oxide provided to COVID-19 infected patients will likely prove to be lifesaving through both a pulmonary vasodilator effect and a direct antiviral effect.

In the case protecting against COVID-19, BCG is not a vaccine but an immunostimulant of non-specific immunity. Trials are also underway to test BCG's ability to rev-up the primitive innate arm of the immune system with the hope to provide early protection against SARS-CoV-2. Reportedly, 100 million newborns are vaccinated each year with BCG. What is most striking is that BCG reduces infant mortality independent of its effects on TB. There is suggestive evidence that countries with a BCG policy also had significantly slower growth of both cases and deaths resulting from COVID-19 as compared to countries that do not vaccinate with BCG.

There are interesting details and links in the original, found here:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86410

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 1:57 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8273947/South-Korea-admits-29
2-coronavirus-reinfections-false-positives.html


South Korea admits 292 coronavirus 'reinfections' were false positives as officials warn fragments of the virus can linger in the body for MONTHS

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Sunday, May 10, 2020 7:29 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Thanks for that - been looking for some specifics as to why it's "not the flu." This first hand experience cuts right through any data fog.
You're very welcome. I'm happy you found it meaningful.

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Monday, May 11, 2020 3:32 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



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Monday, May 11, 2020 3:34 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review

The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask wearing reduces the transmissibility per contact by reducing transmission of infected droplets in both laboratory and clinical contexts. Public mask wearing is most effective at stopping spread of the virus when compliance is high. The decreased transmissibility could substantially reduce the death toll and economic impact while the cost of the intervention is low. Thus we recommend the adoption of public cloth mask wearing, as an effective form of source control, in conjunction with existing hygiene, distancing, and contact tracing strategies. We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.


https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v1

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Monday, May 11, 2020 3:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



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Monday, May 11, 2020 4:06 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Great Mask v No Mask charts. I think someone at the WH must have seen it as they are finally requiring masks to be worn. A bit late of course, like everything about their efforts on this.

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Monday, May 11, 2020 4:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Great Mask v No Mask charts. I think someone at the WH must have seen it as they are finally requiring masks to be worn. A bit late of course, like everything about their efforts on this.

To be worn at the WH? To be worn by the general public? Do you have more info?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Monday, May 11, 2020 8:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Masks are now to be worn at the WH, in response to people who tested positive there.
Quote:


White House scrambles after staffers test positive as new mask mandate takes effect

On Monday, staffers were advised in a memo they would be required to wear a face covering when entering the West Wing, a person familiar said. The memo said face coverings would be available in the White House medical office and told staffers to follow social distancing guidelines.

Trump voiced frustration that two White House staffers tested positive for coronavirus and has asked why his valets weren't ordered to wear masks before this week, according to the person.
Trump believes an economic rebound will only come when governors decide to lift restrictions and is concerned at any signs the virus is resurgent.

At the same time, he's told people he doesn't want to be near anyone who hasn't been tested and has bristled when coming into contact with some people at the White House.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/11/politics/katie-miller-contract-trac
ing-coronavirus/index.html




Please note however that there are no named sources for the details in this article.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2020 3:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2020 7:23 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Great Mask v No Mask charts. I think someone at the WH must have seen it as they are finally requiring masks to be worn. A bit late of course, like everything about their efforts on this.

To be worn at the WH? To be worn by the general public? Do you have more info?

#WEARAMASK



It does seem to go back and forth depending on the time of day. I saw a report that they were being required, as well as Pence going into self-quarantine for coming into contact with his own press secretary. But then you can see images of people in the WH not wearing masks, and Pence - suddenly coming out of quarantine (probably because Trump dogged him, "bad example") - and him not wearing a mask either. Freaking train wreck.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2020 10:05 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Addressing Dr. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary of health and human services, Sen. Mitt Romney said: “I understand that politicians are going to frame data in a way that’s most positive politically. Of course they don’t expect that from admirals. But yesterday you celebrated that we had done more tests and more tests per capita even than South Korea. But you ignored the fact that they accomplished theirs at the beginning of the outbreak, while we treaded water during February and March.”

“As a result, by March 6, the US had completed just 2,000 tests, whereas South Korea had conducted more than 140,000 tests,” Romney continued. “So, partially as a result of that, they have 256 deaths and we have almost 80,000 deaths. I find our test record to be nothing to celebrate.”

www.vox.com/2020/5/12/21256178/fauci-senate-coronavirus-testimony-trum
p-talking-points


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Wednesday, May 13, 2020 12:42 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Only 3 states - Alaska, Hawaii, and Montana - have definitively beaten back SARS-COV-2. The rest have plateaued at the best, and continued to rise, at the worst. That should make a rise or acceleration in new cases in about 2 weeks from now easy to spot.

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Wednesday, May 13, 2020 2:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

captaincrunch:
Great Mask v No Mask charts. I think someone at the WH must have seen it as they are finally requiring masks to be worn. A bit late of course, like everything about their efforts on this.

SIGNYM: To be worn at the WH? To be worn by the general public? Do you have more info?

CC:It does seem to go back and forth depending on the time of day. I saw a report that they were being required, as well as Pence going into self-quarantine for coming into contact with his own press secretary. But then you can see images of people in the WH not wearing masks, and Pence - suddenly coming out of quarantine (probably because Trump dogged him, "bad example") - and him not wearing a mask either. Freaking train wreck.

Jeezus, no kidding.

Yanno, I can understand being caught flat-footed and misled by an agency (CDC, FDA) that over-promises and under-delivers. But by THIS time in the pandemic, Trump et al reallyshould have a grasp on the basics, especially mask-wearing. I don't know where he's taking his cues from ... maybe his gut ... but wherever it is, it's totally uninformed


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 13, 2020 2:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Meanwhile ... Sweden.

Their new deaths/day (weekly avg) per million people has plateaued around 7, and is lower only than the UK and Belgium. Not exactly a rousing success. Even Italy, Spain and France have managed to fight their way lower ... MUCH lower ... than Sweden.

California seems to have stayed at a consistent 2 new deaths per day per million people over the past 5 weeks; with a population of about 40 million people means about 80 deaths per day.

New Jersey is the highest at about 20 deaths per day per million, closely followed by Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and DC. Illinois is at about 9 but has a very steady trend upwards over the past four weeks (up from 6). Indiana has taken a few surprising jumps up but seems to have plateaued, also around 9.

The one surprise to me was Alabama, which has risen steadily and inexorably since the beginning. Are they doing ANYthing to slow the spread? Colorado had a huge jump during ski season but has since dropped down.

Every state seems to have its own path and its own reasons for being that way. Some are just too close to NYC. Some are tourist destinations. Some have smaller populations tht can be easily managed. Some, like CA, seem to be struggling along. But I agree with KIKI: when states "reopen" we should expect to see a rise in deaths in 4-5 weeks (about 5 days to become symptomatic, and another 3-4 weeks to decline to death.)

It'll be interesting.




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 15, 2020 6:05 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So I took another look at divoc-91 deaths/wk/MM and I tried to put states into one of four categories:

They started low and mostly stayed low, and are now at or near zero: Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas (maybe, but has a tick up at the end), Maine, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Tennesee, Texas (maybe, same issue), West Virginia, and Wyoming. Most of these states aren't highly populated and not tourist destinations, but special kudos for Hawaii (tourism) and Vermont (tourists from NYC).

Took an initial jump up but have since plateaued. The jump up indicates that they have some risk factors for transmission, the plateau shows that they've reached some kind of equilibrium with the virus: California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, DC, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina

Peaked and are definitely coming down: Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Massachusetts, South Carolina, and (of course) the big three: New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey,

And the surprises. These states hae done nothing but go up and are STILL going up: Illinois, New Hampshire, Iowa (Iowa???), Virginia, Alabama, and New Mexico.

Trying to find the reason why these states seem so prone to transmission.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-loc
kdowns-11584749351


So I looked at the state failures. They had different reasons to fail: Two of them allowed religious gatherings (IL, IA) and altho technically limited the size that's hard to enforce. New Hampshire and Alabama both had relaxed limits on social distancing. Virginia and New Mexico are both mysteries because their policies seem to be pretty average, but New Mexico might be explained by the very large and impoverished Navajo and other reservations in that state.

Many successful states required new arrivals to SELF QUARANTINE for 14 days Those are Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Montana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Kentucky, Kansas, Idaho, Hawaii (special kudos), Florida, Delaware, Alaska, Wyoming. SARS-Cov2 never established a toe hold.

Only a few states require or recommend masks: Georgia, Nebraska, and Tennessee. Howeer, LA county (where I live) does require them, and many businesses hae a "no mask/no service" policy.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 15, 2020 11:06 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


*2 observations have been nagging at me - the COVID-19 awfulness of NYC, and the COVID-19 persistence in California.

I don't think either of these indicate a simple, straightforward transmission model. I think we could be missing something.

Places like S Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Vietnam are proof that the virus can be either excluded or beaten back at an early stage, no matter how dense and inter-connected the population. So they are in support of a traditional and rather simple model of R0. You can beat R0 by interrupting the transmission chain.

But it's possible something unusual happens after you get entrenched community spread, which shows up in both NYC and CA.

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Friday, May 15, 2020 11:24 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
So I took another look at divoc-91 deaths/wk/MM and I tried to put states into one of four categories:

They started low and mostly stayed low, and are now at or near zero: Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas (maybe, but has a tick up at the end), Maine, Montana, Oklahoma, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Tennesee, Texas (maybe, same issue), West Virginia, and Wyoming. Most of these states aren't highly populated and not tourist destinations, but special kudos for Hawaii (tourism) and Vermont (tourists from NYC).

Took an initial jump up but have since plateaued. The jump up indicates that they have some risk factors for transmission, the plateau shows that they've reached some kind of equilibrium with the virus: California, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Maine, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, DC, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina

Peaked and are definitely coming down: Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Massachusetts, South Carolina, and (of course) the big three: New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey,

And the surprises. These states hae done nothing but go up and are STILL going up: Illinois, New Hampshire, Iowa (Iowa???), Virginia, Alabama, and New Mexico.

Trying to find the reason why these states seem so prone to transmission.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-loc
kdowns-11584749351


So I looked at the state failures. They had different reasons to fail: Two of them allowed religious gatherings (IL, IA) and altho technically limited the size that's hard to enforce. New Hampshire and Alabama both had relaxed limits on social distancing. Virginia and New Mexico are both mysteries because their policies seem to be pretty average, but New Mexico might be explained by the very large and impoverished Navajo and other reservations in that state.

Many successful states required new arrivals to SELF QUARANTINE for 14 days Those are Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio, Montana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Kentucky, Kansas, Idaho, Hawaii (special kudos), Florida, Delaware, Alaska, Wyoming. SARS-Cov2 never established a toe hold.

Only a few states require or recommend masks: Georgia, Nebraska, and Tennessee. Howeer, LA county (where I live) does require them, and many businesses hae a "no mask/no service" policy.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake


#WEARAMASK

I started my 'reopen' clock on May 1, 2020 - but most states were only up to their baby toes in the reopen waters at that point, with either very, VERY limited steps or still just at the talking stage. And most places have still not reopened mass-gatherings like restaurants, events, and mass manufacturing. I'm going to wait another week or even three for a more definitive pattern to show up. After all, SARS-COV-2 noodled unfettered around NYC with community spread for a month or more before anyone even noticed.

The other thing I question is the number of cases. Tests are in very short supply. I was looking at hospitalizations and they're almost invariably going up even in states that don't show much, if any, 'cases' spread. Like the people being treated in the hallways, reefer body storage, and mass burials in NYC, that's the kind of ground truth I'd look to to verify the 'cases' numbers.

I also do classify the states differently than you. But I need to get on with some stuff, so I hope to get back to this later.


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Friday, May 15, 2020 12:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Hi KIKI.

I look at new population-adjusted deaths per week, not cases. "Cases" are completely hostage to a state's, or a nation's, willingness and/or ability to test. Chris Martenson said, many weeks ago, that cases go up exponentially but testing capacity only goes up linearly (if it goes up at all).

Now, I know there are also a number of ways to fuck up "deaths". If you're insisting on a positive Covid-19 test, then cases will be undercounted. If you included deaths from Covid-19-like symptoms (positive X-rays, atypical pneumonia) as probable Covid-19, you run the risk of overcounting and "certain people" (SIX. JSF) are going to whine that you're biasing the numbers high. Much depends on how you handle deaths outside of hospitals (in assisted living facilities, and at home) and how interested the coroners/medical examiners are in accurately reporting Covid deaths. Some states ...MANY states ... have an interest in under-reporting death-by-Covid. Texas, for example, has a huge number of illegal aliens working in its borders, but I doubt that any of them go thru an autopsy.

"Excess deaths", another measure, seems to indicate a gross Covid-19 death undercount. But given that I, too, am busy and not an actual reporter who should be doing this for a living, I'm pretty much hostage to the results on Divoc-91.

I started my "opening up" clock about now because some states have been at it for two weeks already, but some just started. In any case, if looking at "cases" we should be seeing a steady uptick between now and the end of the month, and if looking at "deaths" my guess is starting after the end of the month.

Also, just a reminder to SIX, about 30% will continue to self-quarantine.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 15, 2020 4:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Now, I know there are also a number of ways to fuck up "deaths".
-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

And Mexico, like China, is apparently employing them all! So while funeral homes and crematoria are reporting being suddenly overwhelmed with more business than they can handle, Mexican official deaths are languidly increasing in low numbers.

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Saturday, May 16, 2020 12:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Austria Has 90% Drop in Coronavirus Cases After Requiring People to Wear Face Masks
The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Austria dropped from 90 to 10 cases per one million people, two weeks after the government required everyone to wear a face mask on April 6.

According to Daily Mail, "Austria seemingly managed to reverse its crisis by making masks compulsory on April 6, following a spike in infections in late March."

This contradicted what the United Kingdom (UK) government told its citizens. They are denying that masks are effective if used by the general public.

However, Public Health England (PHE) says wearing a mask could spread the virus. It causes people to touch their face and increases the chances of a person acquiring the virus.


https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25410/20200421/austria-90-drop-c
oronavirus-cases-requiring-people-wear-face-masks.htm




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, May 16, 2020 12:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Some tidbits about SARS-COV-2 testing:


There is a VERY narrow window during which SARS-COV-2 will reliably give a positive reading, and that's during symptoms. A range of +/-4 days before to after symptoms increases the chances to 90% of getting a false negative result.

Also, Abbott's rapid test for SARS-COV-2, extolled for its quick turn-around-time and used at the WH can produce up to a 50% false negative result.


Opinion: The high prevalence of false negative results from Abbott's rapid test for SARS-COV-2 is the opposite of what you'd want in a screening test. A screening test should be able to detect close to 100% of true cases (of anything. That's a generic standard for any screening test.) even at the expense of false positives. False positives can then be weeded out later with more definitive tests (usually at the cost of increased money and time).


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Saturday, May 16, 2020 1:05 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Supposedly there is some "controversy" and "mixed results" about the effectiveness of mask-wearing. Personally, I think the controversy was seeded simply because some nations had masks in short supply. My own opinion is that surgical mask-wearing protects OTHERS more than it protects the wearer, and if the wearer is careless about how they don and doff their masks they can negate any protective effect (to themselves) that the mask might have had (but not necessarily increase the risk because they would have been exposed to the viruses captured on their masks anway). But since masks will help prevent sick people from spreading their illness to others, there is likely to be a net beneficial efects.

So looking at nations which have instituted mask-wearing in public. and new cases per day/MM (always keeping in mind that new cases are hostage to testing)

Here is a wnderfully complete article on which nations require mask-wearing,under which conditions:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/countries-wearing-face-masks-co
mpulsory-200423094510867.html


Looking at most (but not all) mask-requiring nations and comparing it to divoc-91

Venezuela March (unk date) required in public, new cases approx 0 since the beginning of the pandemic

Vietnam March 16 in public new cases approx 0 since the beginning

Czechia March 18 supermarkets, pharmacies, public transport new cases approx 27 >5/day/MM reduced

Slovakia March 25 same reqs as Czechia approx 10/day/MM > 4 reduced

Bosnia/Herzegovina March 29 approx 15>7 reduced

Colombia April 4"contact areas" steady increase to 12

Austria April 6 "public areas" approx 90/day/MM >5 reduced

Argentina April 14 unsteady increases to approx 1

Poland April 16 "all public places" plateaued at 10/day/MM

April 20 Luxembourg public transportation and upermarkets approx 250/dy/MM > 15 reduced

April 22 Germany public transport and shopping approx 70/day/MM>8 reduced


There are a few things about this data which is difficult to parse. While the article on mask-wearing mentions specific dates, the divoc site only cites "first case" or "first death" so it's impossible to tell when the mask-wearing went into effect compared to the divoc charts. Also, these nations took OTHER actions aside from mask-wearing. Also, we don't know whether masks were generally available and how strictly mask-wearing was enforced. But it seems to me that nations which required mask-wearing generally did much better overall than nations which didn't, either showing very steep drops in new cases, or basically the virus failing to establish itself.

There are two failures (Argentina, Colombia) which show steady increase in cases, and one partial failure (Poland) which has plateaued.

Seriously, there must be some reporter or statistician with lots of time on their hands o put all of this .... new cases/day. tests/day, new deaths/day, housing density, control measures and dates implemented, and do a multivariate analysis on this.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, May 16, 2020 1:39 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


What I also find eminently frustrating is risk of death info. It gets parsed one of 2 ways by age group or by preexisting condition(s). It would take noting to create a chart by age group and by preexisting condition(s). The data is there, the reporting is entirely unhelpful.

For the mathematically minded, it could even be turned into a formula.

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 7:47 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps

For the best advice on what we should do, read story # 1) by Marty Makary and story # 2) by Tabarrok and Ohlhaver. Put them together and the basic advice is familiar: combine universal mask wearing with aggressive test-and-trace once an area gets its disease prevalence below 1 percent. Click the links for more details.

# 1) How to Reopen America Safely:
www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/opinion/reopen-america-coronavirus-lockdown
.html


# 2) We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps:
www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/we-could-stop-the-pandemic-by-july-4-if
-the-government-took-these-steps/2020/05/15/9e527370-954f-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html


States have strong economic incentives to become — and remain — green zones. Nations that have invested the most in disease control have suffered the least economic hardship: Taiwan grew 1.5 percent in the first quarter, whereas the United States’ gross domestic product contracted by 4.8 percent, at an annual adjusted rate. (Taiwan was fortunate to have its vice president, Chen Chien-Jen, a U.S.-trained epidemiologist; under his guidance, the island acted quickly with masks, temperature checks, testing and tracing.) The second quarter will be worse: The projected decline for U.S. GDP, at an annualized rate, is an alarming 40 percent.

How do we know that testing, tracing and supported isolation would work? It already has worked in New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan — where there have been few to no new daily cases recently. Taiwan never had to shut down its economy, while New Zealand and South Korea are returning to normal. It would work here, too.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 8:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps

For the best advice on what we should do, read story # 1) by Marty Makary and story # 2) by Tabarrok and Ohlhaver. Put them together and the basic advice is familiar: combine universal mask wearing with aggressive test-and-trace once an area gets its disease prevalence below 1 percent. Click the links for more details.

# 1) How to Reopen America Safely:
www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/opinion/reopen-america-coronavirus-lockdown
.html


# 2) We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps:
www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/we-could-stop-the-pandemic-by-july-4-if
-the-government-took-these-steps/2020/05/15/9e527370-954f-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html


States have strong economic incentives to become — and remain — green zones. Nations that have invested the most in disease control have suffered the least economic hardship: Taiwan grew 1.5 percent in the first quarter, whereas the United States’ gross domestic product contracted by 4.8 percent, at an annual adjusted rate. (Taiwan was fortunate to have its vice president, Chen Chien-Jen, a U.S.-trained epidemiologist; under his guidance, the island acted quickly with masks, temperature checks, testing and tracing.) The second quarter will be worse: The projected decline for U.S. GDP, at an annualized rate, is an alarming 40 percent.

How do we know that testing, tracing and supported isolation would work? It already has worked in New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan — where there have been few to no new daily cases recently. Taiwan never had to shut down its economy, while New Zealand and South Korea are returning to normal. It would work here, too.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




lol

Oh. You mean New Zealand where the authorities can enter your home without permission and drag you to a hospital if somebody says they saw you outside and you sneezed?

Good example, Comrade.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 8:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Meanwhile ... Sweden.

Their new deaths/day (weekly avg) per million people has plateaued around 7, and is lower only than the UK and Belgium. Not exactly a rousing success. Even Italy, Spain and France have managed to fight their way lower ... MUCH lower ... than Sweden.

California seems to have stayed at a consistent 2 new deaths per day per million people over the past 5 weeks; with a population of about 40 million people means about 80 deaths per day.

New Jersey is the highest at about 20 deaths per day per million, closely followed by Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and DC. Illinois is at about 9 but has a very steady trend upwards over the past four weeks (up from 6). Indiana has taken a few surprising jumps up but seems to have plateaued, also around 9.

The one surprise to me was Alabama, which has risen steadily and inexorably since the beginning. Are they doing ANYthing to slow the spread? Colorado had a huge jump during ski season but has since dropped down.

Every state seems to have its own path and its own reasons for being that way. Some are just too close to NYC. Some are tourist destinations. Some have smaller populations tht can be easily managed. Some, like CA, seem to be struggling along. But I agree with KIKI: when states "reopen" we should expect to see a rise in deaths in 4-5 weeks (about 5 days to become symptomatic, and another 3-4 weeks to decline to death.)

It'll be interesting.




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK





Do remember to tally that increase in deaths against the length of deaths in states that remain shut down.

That is, assuming there are any left soon. People are taking power back from the state all over the country now, just like I said they would.

Even more impressive to me is that measures are being taken in some states to prohibit state governments from ever doing this again.

That probably won't be good news when Captain Trips finally comes, but that's what happens when we blow our wad over nothing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 1:00 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

length of deaths
??? As far as I know, death is forever. Please restate.

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 1:04 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/16/politics/uss-theodore-roosevelt-sailors
-coronavirus/index.html


Eight sailors from USS Theodore Roosevelt who previously had coronavirus test positive again

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 2:12 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIX:length of deaths

KIKI: ...??? As far as I know, death is forever. Please restate.

I had the same question. but wasn't going to bother to ask.

Quote:

SIX: when Captain Trips finally comes
You mean Jerry Garcia is going to make a reappearance? You must be a Deadhead! Whooda thunk?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, May 17, 2020 5:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Georgia timetable


March 23, 2020
excepting churches and religious services (social distancing 'encouraged')
restrictions on large gatherings (more than 10 people)
bars and nightclubs closed
mandated shelter in place for over 65 and those with at-risk conditions

April 3, 2020
statewide shelter in place becomes effective excepting essential businesses and critical infrastructure
• Chemical
• Commercial Facilities
• Communications
• Critical Manufacturing
• Dams
• Defense Industrial Base
• Emergency Services
• Energy
• Financial
• Food & Agriculture
• Government Facilities
• Healthcare & Public Health
• Information Technology
• Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste
• Transportation Services
• Water

April 24, 2020
20-point list of "Minimum Basic Operations" requirements
expires May 31, 2020
Gyms and fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, and hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians and their respective schools, massage therapists

Apr 27, 2020
39 guidelines that restaurants must enforce to comply with state law
restaurants (dine-in), (movie) theaters, private social clubs

May 1, 2020
strict social distancing and sanitation rules
to remain closed bars, nightclubs, amusement parks, and live performance venues
“shelter in place” orders expires for the majority of Georgia businesses
strict social distancing and sanitation rules expire May 31, 2020.

May 12, 2020
less than 10 people allowed where 6' social distancing can't be maintained
public swimming pools open

May 14, 2020
social distancing requirement, swimming pool requirements
summer camps open

June 1, 2020
unless closure extended
Bars, nightclubs, amusement parks, and live performance venues reopen

June 12, 2020
mandated shelter in place for 65 and older and other at-risk individuals expires


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Sunday, May 17, 2020 5:57 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


The predictions thread
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=51008&p=15#
1100928


https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/15/trump-audacious-plan-vaccine-covid
19
/

Trump administration outlines audacious plan to deliver ‘hundreds of millions’ of Covid-19 vaccine doses by end of 2020

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Monday, May 18, 2020 5:46 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

People are taking power back from the state all over the country now, just like I said they would.
Somehow I missed this.

What JACK means to say is that armed bullies are forcing the government to do what they want to be done, regardless of what anyone else in the state thinks, and hooray for freedom of the few over the many.

Do I have that right?

And before JACK starts braying about how I'm all for full government control over everything, I'd like to point out I've never proposed anything other than statewide referenda for when and how to reopen. This is of vital interest to everyone, and everyone (at least all voters) should have a chance to decide.

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