REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Thursday, October 12, 2023 02:05
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Monday, June 29, 2020 7:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


When averaged over the entire State of California, LACounty case numbers which are driving CA case numbers don't look so bad.

However, when focusing on LACounty by itself:

L.A. County issues dire warning amid 'alarming increases' in coronavirus cases

... the highly contagious virus is spreading swiftly in the community.

Barbara Ferrer, the director of public health for L.A. County, said that new data show "alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization."

With a predicted increase in hospitalizations, for the first time since the coronavirus crisis seemed to ease locally, L.A. County is now projecting the possibility of running out of hospital beds in two to three weeks. Likewise, the number of intensive care unit beds could be exhausted sometime in July.

It can take three to four weeks after exposure to the virus for infected people to become sick enough to be hospitalized, and four to five weeks after exposure for some of the most vulnerable patients to die from the disease. "So even if steps are taken immediately to reduce the spread in the community, we do expect to see a continued uptick in the next two to four weeks," Lewis said.

All public and private hospitals in L.A. County need to be prepared to treat more patients based on these projections, Ghaly said.

The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus has now increased. Previously, through the beginning of May, for every one person infected, fewer than one other person on average was infected — a testament to the success of the stay-at-home order. But by early June, as the reopening accelerated, the coronavirus transmission rate had crept above 1, meaning for every one person infected, 1.26 people are infected on average.

"We expect the number of cases to rise quickly," Ghaly said.

Although this rate is smaller than what L.A. County saw earlier in the pandemic, when every one infected person on average infected three other people, the current rate can still cause a much larger number of new cases "because of the much broader base of infected individuals that we have today," Ghaly said.

The increase in transmission likely occurred sometime around the week of Memorial Day week or shortly thereafter. At the time, L.A. County officials decided to gradually reopen the economy because the data was stable, with no increases in hospitalizations and a decline in new deaths, Ferrer said.

But unfortunately, people and businesses haven't been adhering to health orders to wear masks in public and stay away from crowded situations. Half of the restaurants visited by county inspectors are not complying with the new rules, and officials have seen examples of overcrowding at public spaces.

"I've had an explosion of new outbreaks in workplaces. One that got shut down this past weekend, it had over 115 infections. Again, very little compliance with the directives on how to operate a factory with as much safety as possible," Ferrer said.

"And we've had numerous examples of outbreaks happen because families are getting together with extended family members and friends to celebrate weddings, things they had postponed, and again, created higher risk, and there was transmission," Ferrer said.

Ferrer also said that, according to data by Foursquare, that the weekend after June 20, the day when bars reopened in L.A. County, 500,000 people visited nightlife spots. And the county has observed a 40% increase in coronavirus cases among younger people, between the ages of 18 and 40, in the past two weeks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-
alarming-increases-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB167tSp




One thing we know for a fact that works is complete shutdown. The evidence is specifically Wuhan, N Italy, and NYC, and also generally in Europe, where SARS-CoV-2 was beaten back from rampant levels to declining to very low.

The fact that California case numbers were increasing slowly DESPITE stay at home orders is something I've been both puzzling over and focusing on for a long time. It didn't bode well for the future when those orders would get lifted.

So, I'll make a couple of predictions. Right now, everyone is saying that it's not so bad because these infection spikes in California (and btw across the country) are occurring in young people. (1)So we'll (CA) see an increase in R0, in positive-test rates, and even in hospitalizations, but should not see an increase in deaths over the next 4 weeks.

But those young people will then spread it to at risk people - people with risk factors like obesity, hypertension, and age. It's inevitable, as night follows day. (2)And THAT wave WILL see increased deaths, 6-8 weeks from now. It's already baked into the future, unless young people start wearing masks and practicing social distancing to protect others right now (or Newsom gets serious about mask orders and tells counties who've already declared they won't enforce them that state funds will not be coming their way as a result).


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Monday, June 29, 2020 10:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Maybe instead of having a total shutdown where nobody can do anything, and then opening everything back up right away in the large cities isn't the answer.

Think back on the last few months and how empty the beds were.

If they had a steady trickle the whole time, there probably wouldn't be concern about a glut now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, June 29, 2020 10:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I conjure most of the folk I expect to read my posts are in this thread, so I'll post this here:

I was last able to post here on 16 March, before the libraries closed. Today is the first opportunity to access with some of the libraries opening up to limited use.
The time is limited, for the upcoming weeks. I have been able to watch the threads each day, and I have accumulated a bunch of backlogged posts to catch up on. Many of these posts will take some time to assemble and compose. So please be patient, and expect that my posts will be edited for a few days after they appear.





It will definitely be interesting to hear your take on this after so long.

March 16 was quite a while ago.

Glad you're alright.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, June 29, 2020 10:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:


Maybe instead of having a total shutdown where nobody can do anything, and then opening everything back up right away in the large cities isn't the answer.

Think back on the last few months and how empty the beds were.

If they had a steady trickle the whole time, there probably wouldn't be concern about a glut now.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Masks work. Plus social distancing works. Plus hand sanitizers works.

These efforts are an extremely limited investment in terms of money, and an extremely limited requirement in terms of law.

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Monday, June 29, 2020 10:44 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


A lot of people are never going to get on board with laws being made. That will invite more confrontations with police, at a time where that situation already is tenuous.

Besides. This problem is never going to go away. We can't do 6 feet apart for the rest of forever.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, June 29, 2020 11:15 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Anyway, my favorite restaurant where I used to go for coffee has reopened. Seating is VERY limited, and the hours are truncated.

So I was chatting with the waitress. Apparently the owner was really good to everyone. He paid everyone as long as he could after the restaurant shut down. And he brought everyone back minus the 2 most recent hires, and albeit for limited hours.

The waitress is highly concerned that with the explosion of cases in LACounty, the restaurant might be shut down again, the way bars have been shut down by state order. And if the restaurant gets shut down, it may not have the wherewithal to be reopened, ever again.

So I hope the good people of LACounty and the surrounding counties (San Bernardino, which is a mere 7 miles from the restaurant; Orange; Ventura; and Riverside) will do their part and step up to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Not just for their own health, and for the health of their relatives, friends, and neighbors; but also for places like my neighborhood restaurant, and for the economy as a whole.

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Monday, June 29, 2020 11:17 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

blah blah blah ... do nothing ... blah blah blah


fify

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Monday, June 29, 2020 11:25 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


JACK, I've plugged into my local online community. By a ~30:1 ratio everyone is for masks, social distancing, making hand sanitizers available, and so on. There's only a very few opposed ravers who're pretty loony in their posts. And my community has an extremely low infection rate. I think that's cause and effect. (Though one member has been keeping track of how full the local community hospitals are, which apparently is near full, or full; even with as well as we're doing.)

MOST people here in my locale aren't jackasses.

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Monday, June 29, 2020 11:26 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Hey JSF, I was wondering what happened to you. Glad to know that you're OK and will be back in touch.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Monday, June 29, 2020 11:45 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JACK, I've plugged into my local online community. By a ~30:1 ratio everyone is for masks, social distancing, making hand sanitizers available, and so on. There's only a very few opposed ravers who're pretty loony in their posts. And my community has an extremely low infection rate. I think that's cause and effect. (Though one member has been keeping track of how full the local community hospitals are, which apparently is near full, or full; even with as well as we're doing.)

MOST people here in my locale aren't jackasses.




What is that, like some online polling echo chamber where everybody says what you want to hear?

I assure you that the amount of people that aren't going to wear a mask if laws were passed is extremely sizable. They're just not going to bother telling you that right now when the issue is moot because most people don't want to be called Grandmother Killers by Karens.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 1:23 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


nextdoor.com

It's neighbors chatting with each other, without the constraints of face-to-face politeness.


I'd give you a link but you'd have to be in my hood and join to be able to see what people are going on about.

Personally, I was just reading the back-and-forth. I wasn't a part of the conversation, and nobody even knew I was there. So it's not as if they were posting anything to please me. And reading the conversations, they certainly aren't posting to please anyone else, either!

But maybe you could join YOUR nextdoor.com group and find out what people in your area are really saying, instead of pretending to post for all those people you've never met, and never read, and have no clue what it is that they're thinking. And yanno, in general, you might learn something instead of making shit up because you have no facts.




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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 4:41 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-
death-rate
/

Quote:

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.




Kind of saying pretty much everything I've been saying all along. In fact, it sounds like I wrote the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Baloney.

From the parts of the article that 6ix posted, I did feel like he had written it, with everything seeming to be what he has been posting repeatedly in this thread (and maybe others).

Perhaps much of what 6ix has posted has been overlooked. In favor of what you think he was posting.


#Pantsdown Riot and Loot!

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 4:53 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:

When averaged over the entire State of California, LACounty case numbers which are driving CA case numbers don't look so bad.

However, when focusing on LACounty by itself:


L.A. County issues dire warning amid 'alarming increases' in coronavirus cases

... the highly contagious virus is spreading swiftly in the community.

Barbara Ferrer, the director of public health for L.A. County, said that new data show "alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization."

With a predicted increase in hospitalizations, for the first time since the coronavirus crisis seemed to ease locally, L.A. County is now projecting the possibility of running out of hospital beds in two to three weeks. Likewise, the number of intensive care unit beds could be exhausted sometime in July.

It can take three to four weeks after exposure to the virus for infected people to become sick enough to be hospitalized, and four to five weeks after exposure for some of the most vulnerable patients to die from the disease. "So even if steps are taken immediately to reduce the spread in the community, we do expect to see a continued uptick in the next two to four weeks," Lewis said.

All public and private hospitals in L.A. County need to be prepared to treat more patients based on these projections, Ghaly said.

The effective transmission rate of the coronavirus has now increased. Previously, through the beginning of May, for every one person infected, fewer than one other person on average was infected — a testament to the success of the stay-at-home order. But by early June, as the reopening accelerated, the coronavirus transmission rate had crept above 1, meaning for every one person infected, 1.26 people are infected on average.

"We expect the number of cases to rise quickly," Ghaly said.

Although this rate is smaller than what L.A. County saw earlier in the pandemic, when every one infected person on average infected three other people, the current rate can still cause a much larger number of new cases "because of the much broader base of infected individuals that we have today," Ghaly said.

The increase in transmission likely occurred sometime around the week of Memorial Day week or shortly thereafter. At the time, L.A. County officials decided to gradually reopen the economy because the data was stable, with no increases in hospitalizations and a decline in new deaths, Ferrer said.

But unfortunately, people and businesses haven't been adhering to health orders to wear masks in public and stay away from crowded situations. Half of the restaurants visited by county inspectors are not complying with the new rules, and officials have seen examples of overcrowding at public spaces.

"I've had an explosion of new outbreaks in workplaces. One that got shut down this past weekend, it had over 115 infections. Again, very little compliance with the directives on how to operate a factory with as much safety as possible," Ferrer said.

"And we've had numerous examples of outbreaks happen because families are getting together with extended family members and friends to celebrate weddings, things they had postponed, and again, created higher risk, and there was transmission," Ferrer said.

Ferrer also said that, according to data by Foursquare, that the weekend after June 20, the day when bars reopened in L.A. County, 500,000 people visited nightlife spots. And the county has observed a 40% increase in coronavirus cases among younger people, between the ages of 18 and 40, in the past two weeks.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/l-a-county-issues-dire-warning-amid-
alarming-increases-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB167tSp


One thing we know for a fact that works is complete shutdown. The evidence is specifically Wuhan, N Italy, and NYC, and also generally in Europe, where SARS-CoV-2 was beaten back from rampant levels to declining to very low.

The fact that California case numbers were increasing slowly DESPITE stay at home orders is something I've been both puzzling over and focusing on for a long time. It didn't bode well for the future when those orders would get lifted.

So, I'll make a couple of predictions. Right now, everyone is saying that it's not so bad because these infection spikes in California (and btw across the country) are occurring in young people. (1)So we'll (CA) see an increase in R0, in positive-test rates, and even in hospitalizations, but should not see an increase in deaths over the next 4 weeks.

But those young people will then spread it to at risk people - people with risk factors like obesity, hypertension, and age. It's inevitable, as night follows day. (2)And THAT wave WILL see increased deaths, 6-8 weeks from now. It's already baked into the future, unless young people start wearing masks and practicing social distancing to protect others right now (or Newsom gets serious about mask orders and tells counties who've already declared they won't enforce them that state funds will not be coming their way as a result).

Ypu have posted puzzlement over the spread model in SoCal.

I need more time to fully get into this, but perhaps take a look at it from what we know now, instead as progressing from what we were told a while ago.

Wuhan Coronavirus was spreading in SoCal in Nov. Many were Shirley young, and asymptomatic. More than 7,000 arrived from China each day in CA (14,000 including both directions). You have already posted anecdotal info about folk knowing about it or getting sick in Dec.
In Feb, or late Jan, Liar-in-Chief Fauci started suggesting looking at ariports for people about to arrive, ignoring the prior 3 months.

So 3 months of community spread before attempts to contact trace.

I think you are asdsduming a model in SoCal which is about 5 months, with mitigation starting in the 1st or 2nd month. But you asre really looking at a model of about 8 or 9 months with mitigation starting in the 5th or 6th months.
I don't think it will be easy or possible to find any location, timeframe, or spread template in the world which might mirror the unique example that is current SoCal. Meaning, SoCal for the past 9 months.
Much of the testing which would need to be done to confirm how much community spread existed before Jan 1 is likely not even possible to accomplish, or very difficult.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 5:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Signy, you might be interested in this:

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetai
l.cfm?prid=2473

Beaches Closed, Fireworks Displays Prohibited During 4th of July Weekend to Prevent Spread of COVID-19

https://www.foxnews.com/us/sheriff-wont-enforce-los-angeles-county-ord
er-close-beaches-4th-july

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/06/30/la-orders-all-beache
s-closed-july-4-weekend-but-la-sheriff-department-wont-enforce-order/#234d360774ec

Sheriff won't enforce Los Angeles County order to close beaches on Fourth of July: report



So despite the lack of large, crowd-gathering fireworks displays, expect a big surge in cases and deaths ahead due to no enforcement of beach closures, since Villanueva has been in a several-months snit with the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors about who's running the county.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 7:15 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Most People With Coronavirus Won’t Spread It. Why Do a Few Infect Many?

Growing evidence shows most infected people aren’t spreading the virus. But whether you become a superspreader probably depends more on circumstance than biology.


This averaged [R0] figure can also be misleading because it masks the variability of spread from one person to the next. If nine out of 10 people don’t pass on a virus at all, while the 10th passes it to 20 people, the average would still be two.

In some diseases, such as influenza and smallpox, a large fraction of infected people pass on the pathogen to a few more. These diseases tend to grow steadily and slowly. “Flu can really plod along,” said Kristin Nelson, an assistant professor at Emory University.

But other diseases, like measles and SARS, are prone to sudden flares, with only a few infected people spreading the disease.

Epidemiologists capture the difference between the flare-ups and the plodding with something known as the dispersion parameter. It is a measure of how much variation there is from person to person in transmitting a pathogen.

If Covid-19 was like the flu, you’d expect the outbreaks in different places to be mostly the same size. But Dr. Kucharski and his colleagues found a wide variation. The best way to explain this pattern, they found, was that 10 percent of infected people were responsible for 80 percent of new infections. Which meant that most people passed on the virus to few, if any, others.

Other epidemiologists have calculated the dispersion parameter with other methods, ending up with similar estimates. In Georgia, for example, Dr. Nelson and her colleagues analyzed over 9,500 Covid-19 cases from March to May. They created a model for the spread of the virus through five counties and estimated how many people each person infected. In a preprint published last week, the researchers found many superspreading events. Just 2 percent of people were responsible for 20 percent of transmissions.

Now researchers are trying to figure out why so few people spread the virus to so many. They’re trying to answer three questions: Who are the superspreaders? When does superspreading take place? And where?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/30/science/how-coronavirus-spreads.htm
l




This has been the mystery I've been hounding and haring after. How does COVID-19 spread in the absence of super-spreaders and super-spreading events, which SHOULD have been the condition in SoCal during both the low-level percolation phase and the stay-at-home phase ...

... or does it?

In any case, it would be easy to create simple mathematical formulas to draw multi-dimensional surfaces - 10% of people spread it to 10% of people, 30% of people, 40% of people ... 20% of people spread it to 10% of people, 30% of people, 40% of people ... and so on (except of course that mathematical models are continuous rather than discontinuous, except at the boundaries of 0 and infinity). And from that, you could estimate which real world conditions most closely match which models. And from that you could determine which conditions you need to most tightly control.

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-realistic-about-the-coronavirus-
death-rate
/

Quote:

In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­esti­mated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.

Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the ­so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.

Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory ­viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.

Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.




Kind of saying pretty much everything I've been saying all along. In fact, it sounds like I wrote the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Baloney.

From the parts of the article that 6ix posted, I did feel like he had written it, with everything seeming to be what he has been posting repeatedly in this thread (and maybe others).

Perhaps much of what 6ix has posted has been overlooked. In favor of what you think he was posting.


#Pantsdown Riot and Loot!




Good analysis.

Did I mention I was glad to see you back.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:01 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
nextdoor.com

It's neighbors chatting with each other, without the constraints of face-to-face politeness.


I'd give you a link but you'd have to be in my hood and join to be able to see what people are going on about.

Personally, I was just reading the back-and-forth. I wasn't a part of the conversation, and nobody even knew I was there. So it's not as if they were posting anything to please me. And reading the conversations, they certainly aren't posting to please anyone else, either!

But maybe you could join YOUR nextdoor.com group and find out what people in your area are really saying, instead of pretending to post for all those people you've never met, and never read, and have no clue what it is that they're thinking. And yanno, in general, you might learn something instead of making shit up because you have no facts.







We have one of those here.

I think they called it KarensInNWI.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:13 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

JACK:
more trolling and lies as a substitute for facts and honesty

fify

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 9:58 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Well we do have one of those here. They hand out the fliers in the mailboxes without any postage on them about once a year.

I can only imagine the type of people that are on it. Certainly not my crowd.

But what do I know. Maybe they've all gotten together online to anonymously thank the guy at the end of the street who's been doing the city's job and making sure the storm sewers are clear for them, since apparently that job has been deemed non-essential in 2020.

Probably not though. I wasn't wearing a mask.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, June 30, 2020 10:03 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


No thoughts on JSF agreeing with my assessment that the article sounded like I had written it?

I'm actually not clear whether or not you agreed with that assessment or not. I know you don't agree with me OR the article, so it's possible that you do.


I don't want to jump the gun and say that Ted's idea that JSF is your sockpuppet gets a lot funnier if your sockpuppet comes on here and with argues you about that after your behavior toward me in his absence.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020 1:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
BUT !! .. back to the OP:
Global coronavirus cases surge past 80,000 as new outbreak clusters emerge

According to the CDC, both Italy and Iran are experiencing “sustained community spread of respiratory illness (COVID-19) caused by the novel coronavirus.”

The United States has raised its travel advisories for South Korea and Japan, warning about "sustained community spread" ...

1kiki, if you were not such a panicky troll you'd know that so far (updated Feb. 19), the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

On a personal note: I have no allergies, I take no medicines, other than an annual flu shot and the two pneumonia vaccines and I have not been sick even once in the 21st Century. I also passed my immunity to disease onto my children and grandchildren. It follows that I am not a panicky troll like 1kiki is about coronavirus.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




Thought this was an interesting post by Second from February 24th while looking for Ted's comments on Trump's racist travel bans that CNN and Vox and MSNBC and MotherJones among others were all calling racist before The Coomph became a thing here.


Especially funny now since Second wants an authoritarian mandate requiring everyone to wear a mask outside.

He's gone full blown Karen in a few months it seems.


Maybe you should apologize to Kiki now, Second, since you both seem to share the same zipcode in Karenville in July.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020 2:09 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From 16 March:
Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
lol

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
I expect this is nothing new for her. I expect she has encouraged full Government Control at every opportunity, and every turn. More Government control. Bigger Government. Expand Government. Government good, honest working folk bad. She has been a Democrat for a very long time, been a devout follower of all required facets of the Democrat religion, and has chosen to spend her life in a Democrat hellhole. No need to ride anybody right now, this is what they have believed all of their lives.

As the DNC (Does Not Care) party mantra goes, never let a good crisis go to waste - get more Government Control out of it, More Government funding, Bigger Government, more expansive Government.



As for Nationalized Health Care, Universal Health Care, Government Health Care, etc - this is what the vaunted Italian system is, and they have 1/3 o the ICU beds per capita as the U.S. does. Their Death Panels are overwhelmed with decisions of who to kill and who to treat. Their individual hospitals are overwhelmed with death decisions of who to kill or let die, every floor of these hospitals is overwhelmed with who to kill, and each doctor or specialist is overwhelmed with decisions of who to kill - socialized Health Care is the Utopian model. They also mentioned that some specific hospitals in their nationalized system (like Lombardy) are even more better funded and equipped than other hospitals in the same system - where everything is equal.

Just for the record I have not once, NOT ONCE ! stated anything positive about any government control anywhere to contain coronavirus.

This is just jerkwad Kevin making shit up as usual, and you, being the slackjawed sidekick you are, going along with it. If either of you had any trace of honor or honesty left in you, you'd be just a little bit ashamed of colluding together to lie so egregiously. But you aren't.

Just for the record ...

... you are both lying sack-of-shit raw oozing...


ASSHOLES.

Here we have a post from 16 March. In it, kiki includes a quote of a post of mine from 16 March, which was the last day I was able to post until this week. I had intended to reply right away, but could not.

I think kiki had every reason and expectation to reply to me in this way.

I must apologize for my post and it's contents. I had not realized it was inaccurate. I had truly thought that I had viewed posts from kiki which reflected the things I said, and I thought I was merely pointing them out.

I had thought as well that kiki did believe the concept which I had posted, and had not recalled any posts of hers which conflicted with what I had thought about her views.
I will assume that what she has stated in her reply is factual, and accurate.

I am sorry for the confusion. As well as my long overdue reply.

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Wednesday, July 1, 2020 2:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


lol wow.

That's an even better example to Ted than the ones I found and posted earlier.


If Ted's right and JSF is one of Kiki's personalities, she's freaking AMAZING at it.




Hey... anything is possible. But I'm not buying it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 2:35 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 2:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


PATRIOTIC DISPLAYS IN 2020: BAD

RIOTING, LOOTING, BURNING FLAGS AND BUILDINGS AND TOPPLING STATUES IN 2020: GOOD


Clown World.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 3:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


What is the reasonable level of Lockdown vs Freedom?

If, a few months ago, experts or leaderds had expressed the idea that we should go into lockdown forever, for the indefinite future, and obliterate our economy to pay homage to the know-nothing scientists and Liar-In-Chief Fauci, then nobody would have put up with that.
But it was presented as a temporary thing, and for specific reasons.

Now, much advancements in research of the Wuhan Coronavirus has been done. Cures have been found or proposed, even if States and Governors have outlawed them. Mask and other PPE production and supply has ramped up. Hospitals have been ghosttowns for months, with doctors and nurses furloughed indefinitely due to all the empty beds. spread of cases and deaths has been mitigated and slowed, giving time for all of the stated specific needs.

On the other hand, economies have gone in the toilet, Power-Hungry Dems have resisted or refused to end lockdowns - once they grabbed the power, they never want to give it up. Some states have gone Death Panel Happy, shuffling as many old folks to the funeral home as they can manage, creating as much spread and death as possible.

So what is the reasonable level? What percent of spread? We all know it will never be zero until herd immunity has occurred.
How many more years of lockdown is really needed? Remember that, if a nation implodes upon itself, there are plenty of dictators and despots around the world who would love to take a nation when it is down and out, and confiscate it or invade it.
The Chicken Little Ninnies have had their respite. What is next.

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 4:56 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JSF:
But it (lockdown) was presented as a temporary thing, and for specific reasons.

Yes, to bend the curve to keep emergency services, hospitals, and it turns out morgues and funeral services, from being overloaded.
Quote:

Cures have been found or proposed
The very best one which is Decadron (steroid - generic is dexamethasone) only helps about 30% of severe cases.
Quote:

even if States and Governors have outlawed them.
Which ones are those?
Quote:

Mask and other PPE production and supply has ramped up. Hospitals have been ghosttowns for months, with doctors and nurses furloughed indefinitely due to all the empty beds.
If you're in a lucky state, the ICUs still have room!

Texas has stopped reporting on capacity as numbers exceeded normal ICU bedspace https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-wont-specif
y-where-hospital-beds-are-available-as-coronavirus-cases-hit-record-highs/287-2b8aeb26-0132-4d6b-baec-d029685a1a79
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/houston-hospitals-stop-reporting-cov
id-19-related-data-after-reaching-base-icu-capacity-report/ar-BB1656hh
, Louisiana's region 5 is 6 beds shy of being at filled ICU capacity https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-covid-19-cases-go-up-numbe
r-of-available-icu-beds-in-cenla-go-down/ar-BB16aus6
, Arizona has exceeded base ICU capacity and is converting non-ICU spaces like conference rooms into ICU care https://www.12news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/inside-the-covi
d-19-icu-valley-nurses-share-what-they-see-as-cases-rise-in-arizona/75-dbb0485d-c486-4d37-8ab4-c478ab0b7a72
.

And, while I'm trying to not throw too much info at you at once, it turns out hospitals don't make their money on important stuff like ICUs and ERs. They make their money on elective procedures, which have been put off in favor of, actually, ahem!, saving lives. So between the increased cost of saving lives and the decreased revenue of not-vital 'stuff', hospitals are in an economic pinch. Which says a lot of really bad things about our medical system, whose goal is, quite obviously, to make money, and not at all about health.
Quote:

spread of cases and deaths has been mitigated and slowed, giving time for all of the stated specific needs.
Deaths have fallen, but cases, and more importantly, hospitalizations, have gone up beyond capacity in many places. (My prediction is that as 'cases' move from young healthy people to people with pre-existing conditions like hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and age, deaths with go up dramatically).
Quote:

On the other hand, economies have gone in the toilet, Power-Hungry Dems have resisted or refused to end lockdowns - once they grabbed the power, they never want to give it up.
Uh ... dood. Every state has relaxed restrictions. Hence, the surges in California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, Louisiana, and elsewhere.
Quote:

Some states have gone Death Panel Happy, shuffling as many old folks to the funeral home as they can manage, creating as much spread and death as possible.
This is so ridiculous I can't let it go without saying "quotes and links, or it didn't happen".
Quote:

So what is the reasonable level? What percent of spread? We all know it will never be zero until herd immunity has occurred.
How many more years of lockdown is really needed?

Somewhere between total lockdowns and no restrictions at all is vast territory you seem to be blind to.
Quote:

Remember that, if a nation implodes upon itself, there are plenty of dictators and despots around the world who would love to take a nation when it is down and out, and confiscate it or invade it.
The Chicken Little Ninnies have had their respite. What is next.



And seriously, I can't see Russia or China storming across the Bering Strait - can you?

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 5:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

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Thursday, July 2, 2020 10:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Sigs posted a few weeks ago about how we're already breathing in a gross amount of plastic everyday.

Let's just spray that into the air along with whatever else they put in the chem trails and call it a day.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, July 3, 2020 6:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19

Highlights

• As of May27, 2020 there are over 1,678,843 confirmed cases of COVID-19 claiming more than 100,000 lives in the Unites States. Currently there is no known effective therapy or vaccine.
• According to a protocol-based treatment algorithm, among hospitalized patients, use of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in-hospital mortality compared to not receiving hydroxychloroquine.
• Findings of this observational study provide crucial data on experience with hydroxychloroquine therapy, providing necessary interim guidance for COVID-19 therapeutic practice.

Conclusions and Relevance
In this multi-hospital assessment, when controlling for COVID-19 risk factors, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with reduction in COVID-19 associated mortality. Prospective trials are needed to examine this impact.

However:
The combination of hydroxychloroquine?+?azithromycin was reserved for selected patients with severe COVID-19 and with minimal cardiac risk factors. An electrocardiogram (ECK) based algorithm was utilized for hydroxychloroquine use. QTc>500?ms was considered an elevated cardiac risk and consequently hydroxychloroquine was reserved for patients with severe disease with telemetry monitoring and serial QTc checks.
Unscrambling the medical jargon what it means is this: One of the known side effects of HCQ (CQ, and quinine) is serious heart arrhythmias (there are several types). A cardiac arrhythmia is like having the pistons of your car each firing at all different times, or firing far too early, or far too late. Obviously your car won't run that way, and neither will your heart, and neither will you. And the main risk factor for death using HCQ in previous studies was cardiac arrhythmias. The SIGNIFICANT doubling of mortality using HCQ (double the death rate, or more) is what caused previous trials to be halted. All those extra deaths couldn't be ignored.

So THIS retrospective study addressed the very real issue of death-dealing arrhythmias, and selected data for patients that were both screened-for and monitored-for adverse cardiac effects.

By preventing all those deaths due to cardiac arrhythmias, the benefits were allowed to prevail.

I'm still left wondering why they don't run a trial with zinc added.


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Saturday, July 4, 2020 3:28 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


reiterations of the study that show SARS-CoV-2 antibodies last only a few months before fading, with additional commentary


https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/revolutionandrevelation/87365

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/06/chinese-study-anti
bodies-covid-19-patients-fade-quickly



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Saturday, July 4, 2020 3:33 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Meanwhile, deaths appear to be leveling off in the US, perhaps before rising. This bears watching.

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Saturday, July 4, 2020 4:52 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


reposted from

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63710
Paul Krugman can kiss my ass

Quote:

After several months of mixed messages on the coronavirus pandemic, the White House is settling on a new one: Learn to live with it. On Thursday, the United States reported more than 55,000 new cases of coronavirus and infection rates were hitting new records in multiple states.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/we-need-live-it-white-house-rea
dies-new-message-nation-n1232884

Quote:

The president himself is still engaged in wishful thinking that the virus will simply magically disappear. The rest of the Republican leadership is assuming that people will be desperate enough to go to work and live their normal lives even if it means possibly killing themselves and vulnerable people around them, or becoming violently ill for weeks with possible lifelong health repercussions.

America, with four percent of the world’s population, has 25 percent of the cases of the disease. (25 percent of deaths, too, 132K US deaths to 525K World deaths)

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/07/04/the-trump-administration-is-g
iving-up-on-fighting-the-pandemic
/

The estimation here is that the time for the US to defeat(contain into minimal impact) the virus like other countries have, has come ... and gone. I personally agree with that. I'm not sure what the experts think, but they've been extremely quiet as of late.

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Saturday, July 4, 2020 7:02 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Just to add - there's that saying about no battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

So, originally when the virus was seen to have the potential to run out of control like a wildland fire, the goal in the US was to bend the curve to prevent medical systems from being overwhelmed, like in Wuhan, N Italy, and NYC. And at the time the proven tactic was a shutdown to stop transmission to bend the curve.

Some countries committed early on to repel the virus and defeat it wherever it had a beachhead, through a combination of early and thorough testing (when it can do the most good), quarantine of positive-testing individuals, border closures, cordons-sanitaire, and public mask-wearing, and they've fared very well in terms of cases and deaths, medical drain on the economy, and the ability to either maintain or quickly reopen their economies. (SK, Taiwan, Singapore, NZ, Aus, VN, Hong Kong, Maylasia, and a few others).

Other countries either elected to do nothing (Brazil, Mexico), or were unable to address the problem (central and south America), or elected to depend on 'herd immunity' (Sweden).

As it became apparent that 'treatment' was only partly effective and the enemy was far more resistant to counter-attack than originally thought, the US goal added delaying infections until a better treatment(s) and/or vaccines became available, in order to avoid deaths. But the US was stuck on the strategy of complete shutdown, and very, VERY slow to adopt alternate or additional measures.

I want to point out that from the beginning I've been hesitant to embrace vaccines as the answer because there has never been a successful vaccine against coronaviruses; because injectable vaccines don't optimally target the airway surfaces; because it still hasn't been shown that antibodies = immunity; and now because there's additional preliminary indication that naturally- infection- acquired antibodies only last a few months before dropping to undetectable levels. As hyped as they have been, vaccines may not be as significant as hoped. Just saying.

The results are that through concerted efforts, many countries have either avoided the pandemic (previous list), or beaten it back into more easily contained episodic outbreaks, including Canada. YAY!! for Canada, Brenda! And may you close the border to all US travelers to keep yourself safe!

And countries which didn't do that are in the global top 25 for per-capita deaths, including Sweden, the US, Brazil, and Mexico, with out-of control spread. In fact, on the DIVOC-91 chart of shame, when it comes to new cases, the US is fourth behind Kazakhstan, Chile, and Brazil (and you have to remember that those other countries are actively NOT TESTING to keep their numbers as low as possible); and when it comes to new deaths, Sweden is in the top 10 behind Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Mexico, Columbia, Iraq, and Ecuador. Yes, the US and Sweden find themselves competing with destitute, corrupt, non-technological countries from around the globe for top spots on the DIVOC-91 charts of shame.


The conclusion is obvious to me. Doing nothing, or doing only minimal anti-virus activities doesn't work. You might as well just wave the white flag and surrender.


And Trump seems to agree. He's waving the white flag. Everyone living in the US should consider themselves on their own, in enemy territory.


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Sunday, July 5, 2020 12:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


https://reason.com/2020/07/01/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-much-closer-th
an-antibody-tests-suggest-say-2-new-studies
/

Quote:


...
If these reports stand up to further scrutiny, it would be very good news because they suggest that the pandemic could be over sooner and ultimately be less lethal than feared.

First, a few caveats: Both studies are based on small sample sizes and neither have yet been vetted by peer review.

...

"One interesting observation was that it wasn't just individuals with verified COVID-19 who showed T-cell immunity but also many of their exposed asymptomatic family members," said Karolinska researcher Soo Aleman. "Moreover, roughly 30 per cent of the blood donors who'd given blood in May 2020 had COVID-19-specific T cells, a figure that's much higher than previous antibody tests have shown."

"Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in," noted Karolinska Center for Infectious Medicine researcher Marcus Buggert.

...

Study co-author Hans-Gustaf Ljunggren told The Telegraph that if the study's findings are replicated, they would apply to any country. London, for instance, might have about 30 percent immunity and New York above 40 percent. If so, some parts of the U.S. are much closer to herd immunity than population-wide antibody testing currently suggests.

...

Still the Swedish researchers caution, "It remains to be determined if a robust memory T cell response in the absence of detectable circulating antibodies can protect against [the virus]."

In a second study, German researchers analyzed blood samples of 365 people, of which 180 had had COVID-19 and 185 had not. When they exposed the blood samples to the COVID-19 coronavirus, they found, as expected, that blood from those who had had the illness produced a substantial immune response. More significantly, they also found that 81 percent of the subjects who had never had COVID-19 also produced a T-cell immune reaction, reports The Science Times. If the German study's results prove out, that would suggest that earlier common cold coronavirus infections may provide about eight in 10 people some degree of immune protection from the COVID-19 virus.

The findings in both of these studies are potentially very good news with respect to public health and the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here's hoping that future replications will validate them.




Note that I did throw the caveats in there. Feel free to check the article for what was omitted with my ellipses, but I just felt that I removed superfluous stuff and wasn't trying to hide anything from the article.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 5:35 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Like a lot about the virus, T-cell mediated immunity is unproven.

Let me back up a bit to divide lymphocytes into 2 major categories: B-cell lymphocytes (called B-cells) that produce antibodies; and T-cell lymphocytes (called T-cells) - which have subcategories that carry out diverse immune system functions. Some T-cells are cytotoxic (killer) cells, some are helper cells, some are regulatory (suppressor) cells, and some are memory cells. Those are the major categories that we know of. There's some indication that VIRUS-SPECIFIC killer cells (CD8+) are need to clear SARS-CoV-2 from the body, whereas NON-virus-specific helper cells (CD4+), even though they may non-specifically 'recognize' SARS-CoV-2, work to suppress the immune response to SARS-CoV-2.

There's some indication that there's general T-cell suppression going on - or perhaps it's more directed at CD8+ cells, since those cells seem to run very low early in infection. And there's potential infection and destruction of T-cells by SARS-CoV-2, the same way HIV destroys CD4+ cells in AIDS patients.




https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-0402-2
Hence, SARS-CoV-2 infection may break down antiviral immunity at an early stage.


https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2020.00827/full?utm
_source=fweb&utm_medium=nblog&utm_campaign=ba-sci-fimmu-covid-tcell-exhaustion

The number of total T cells, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were dramatically reduced in COVID-19 patients, especially in patients requiring Intensive Care Unit (ICU) care. Counts of total T cells, CD8+ T cells or CD4+ T cells lower than 800, 300, or 400/µL, respectively, were negatively correlated with patient survival.


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200413/Novel-coronavirus-attacks-a
nd-destroys-T-cells-just-like-HIV.aspx

Novel coronavirus attacks and destroys T cells, just like HIV


The end result is that while specific T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 might possibly confer an unknown level of immunity, NON-specific recognition to generic coronaviruses might actually be detrimental to fighting off the virus.

Or whatever.


The point being, nobody knows, because it's not looking simple at this point.


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Sunday, July 5, 2020 5:59 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My question then would be why would researchers both from Sweden and Germany either not know about this suppression, pretend to not know about this suppression, or disregard previous research on this suppression?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 7:24 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Because in a 'publish or perish' world, nobody gets published for trying to replicate somebody else's experiment, and so they strike out in new and unrelated directions? Because of all the papers there are on SARS-CoV-2 that I've looked at, some say one thing, others say the exact opposite, and yet others are somewhere in between, and having research that disagrees is normal? Because their papers are only a fragmentary part of the entire picture, which isn't at all clear or complete yet? Because if you slice and dice data one way you'll get a different picture than if you slice and dice it another way? Because even THEY admit their work is only preliminary and requires more thorough investigation, and, oh by the way, will you give us grant money for the next 3 years? Because the article you chose has a political agenda and it didn't look for countervailing or more complete information, and it was so desperate to make its point some of the links in it were downright wrong? Because you have confirmation bias up the wazoo and will eagerly accept whatever random piece of unverified snippet that supports your POV instead of looking at the bigger picture or waiting for more information?



The point is, this is a NOVEL virus, with 'gain of function' changes that make it truly unlike whatever has come before. And at the moment, there's nothing I find at all certain about the information about it.

So chill. Take a bigger view. And wait for more complete information before you decide anything prematurely.

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 7:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Prematurely?

Like shutting down the economy, making kids stay home from school, the complete upheaval of every American's lives kind of prematurely?

Sure thing.

I'm a patient man. I'm usually right with enough time.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 8:09 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:


Prematurely?

Like shutting down the economy, making kids stay home from school, the complete upheaval of every American's lives kind of prematurely?

Sure thing.

I'm a patient man. I'm usually right with enough time.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

Shutting down the economy etc has worked extremely well for a number of countries that implemented it the way it needed to be done. They're now able to reopen cautiously (all of Europe minus Sweden, and many other countries around the globe).

The US did it very badly and is now vying for top place of per capita new infections with Kazakhstan, Chile, and Brazil.

And when infections spike, deaths will follow, as young people infect at-risk people. I know I'm right on that. So deaths will be spiking in the near future. Give it about 6 weeks, maybe less.

As for you, you haven't been right yet.





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Sunday, July 5, 2020 12:29 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I haven't been wrong either.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 1:37 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Have you already forgotten that long list of 'wrongness' I posted just a couple of weeks ago? Yanno, that list I could have easily doubled?

Keep piling on the 'wrongness', JACK!!!


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Sunday, July 5, 2020 1:56 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Meanwhile, here's another item in the real world, as opposed to JACK's fantasy one, to follow up on as facts develop.

Quote:


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-recovery-survivo
rs.html


Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors

What problems do patients experience after leaving the hospital?

There are many. Patients may leave the hospital with scarring, damage or inflammation that still needs to heal in the lungs, heart, kidneys, liver or other organs. This can cause a range of problems, including urinary and metabolism issues.

Dr. Zijian Chen, the medical director of the new Center for Post-Covid Care at Mount Sinai Health System, said the biggest physical problem the center was seeing was shortness of breath, which can be the result of lung or heart impairments or a blood-clotting problem. “Some have an intermittent cough that doesn’t go away that makes it hard for them to breathe,” he said. Some are even on nasal oxygen at home, but it is not helping them enough.

“You have prolonged lengths of stay on a ventilator and in the ICU that are now longer than we’ve ever seen before,” Dr. Ferrante said. “One worries that this is going to have repercussions for physical function and that we’ll see more people not recovering.”

(Then there are the expected effects of long-term bed confinement and ventilator support: loss of muscle and weakness, nerve damage, difficulty speaking due to inflamed vocal chords, PTSD, other and emotional and mental problems clustered in what's known as "post-intensive care syndrome".)

(Because people with COVID-19 have such extraordinarily long stays in the ICU, they're more subject to) hospital delirium, a condition that can involve paranoid hallucinations and anxious confusion. Studies, including one by a team at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, have found that ICU patients who experience hospital delirium are more likely to have cognitive impairment in the months after they leave the hospital.

Dr. Chen said that Mount Sinai’s post-Covid center has referred nearly 40 percent of patients to neurologists for issues like fatigue, confusion and mental fogginess. “Some of it is very debilitating,” he said. “We have patients who come in and tell us: ‘I can’t concentrate on work. I’ve recovered, I don’t have any breathing problems, I don’t have chest pain, but I can’t get back to work because I can’t concentrate.’”

Patients and their families should realize that fluctuations in progress are normal.

“There are going to be days where everything’s going right with your lungs, but your joints are feeling so achy that you can’t get up and do your pulmonary rehab and you have a few setbacks,” Dr. Putrino said. “Or your pulmonary care is going OK, but your cognitive fog is causing you to have anxiety and causing you to spiral, so you need to drop everything and work with your neuropsychologist intensively.”

How long do these issues last?

For many people, the lungs are likely to recover, often within months. But other problems can linger and some people may never make a full recovery, experts say.

One benchmark is a 2011 New England Journal of Medicine study of 109 patients in Canada who had been treated for acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS, the kind of lung failure that afflicts many Covid-19 patients. Five years later ...
On one crucial test — how far patients could walk in six minutes — their median distance was about 477 yards, only three-quarters of the distance researchers had predicted. The patients ranged in age from 35 to 57, (but neither younger nor older patients) "returned to normal predicted levels of physical function at five years,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Chen said ... There may be “hundreds of thousands who are going to be afflicted with these chronic syndromes that may take a long time to heal, and that’s going to be a very big health problem and also a big economic problem if we don’t take care of them,” Dr. Chen said.

“I think the main take-home here is that post-Covid care is complex,” Dr. Putrino said. “It’s hard enough to rehabilitate someone with a broken leg where one thing is wrong.”

“But with post-Covid care,” he said, “you’re dealing with people with some cognition issues, physical issues, lung issues, heart issues, kidney issues, trauma — and all of these things have to be managed just right.”


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Sunday, July 5, 2020 3:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Have you already forgotten that long list of 'wrongness' I posted just a couple of weeks ago? Yanno, that list I could have easily doubled?

Keep piling on the 'wrongness', JACK!!!





Your list was laughable.

I didn't forget it. I pissed on it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 10:14 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Well then, you pissed on all your quotes, with links!, that proved how wrong you were. But just in case you were hoping it would get buried and forgotten with time - here's the link to that whole big pile of wrongness.

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=51008&p=15



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Sunday, July 5, 2020 10:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You haven't proved one single thing I've said as being wrong, nor has anybody else.

You can keep saying it. It doesn't bother me none. It also won't make it any more true.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 11:43 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:


Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nobody cares.

And two months from now nobody will be talking about this anymore just like they've stopped talking about The Coomph.

But feel free to say all their names, Mr. Virtue Signal.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

They NEVER stopped talking about coronavirus, and here it is, 4months+ later and people are STILL talking about coronavirus.


You were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61954&p=68
Originally posted by THG:
History will show...

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
That I'm right again.

I usually am.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, you're actually wrong about everything related to coronavirus so far, so, once again, you were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=61954&p=67
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Meanwhile, nobody I know IRL has even brought it up.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Apparently you'd talked with your family members about it, and so ... you were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=2
Sunday, February 2, 2020 2:15 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Or maybe they realized that most people are tuning out and it isn't generating any ratings for them anymore.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Once again, it have never disappeared from the news. Which means that once again, you were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=14
Friday, March 13, 2020 1:09 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Average age of deaths from Coronavirus in the US: 80

Not sure where you pulled that figure from, but I'm guessing it was out of your ass, like always. The ONLY and most recent data I could find was from way back in May, when the average age was 75.

The shit you pulled out of your ass? It made you, yet again, wrong. https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/05/06/cdc-data-average-age-of-th
ose-who-have-died-from-covid-19-in-u-s-75
/
Quote:

Total young and middle aged deaths from Coronavirus in the US: 0
That wasn't even true then and it CERTAINLY isn't true now, as you can see by looking at actual data. https://data.cdc.gov/d/9bhg-hcku/visualization
So, yet again, you were wrong.
Quote:

More than half of those died in a single old folks home in Washington State.
But once again, CDC data shows you were ... wrong. AGAIN.
Quote:

Friday, March 13, 2020 1:10 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
This is starting to look more and more like a big nothing burger to me.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

132,569 deaths in 4 months from a single virus ... shows that you were wrong.
Quote:

Friday, March 13, 2020 3:00 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We're all going to get it. Every single one of us. It's inevitable at this point.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Well, I don't know about *us* but around the globe a lot of people haven't gotten it, and probably won't, because transmission was effectively slowed to insignificance. Even more, if you believe your most recent post, there's a lot of naturally immune people out there who won't get it.

That means you were wrong.
Quote:

Sunday, March 15, 2020 10:03 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

Here you go full-on lying, and once again you were wrong. And you're STILL wrong - wrong in your bullshit, wrong in the head, wrong and really twisted morally.
Quote:

Sunday, March 15, 2020 2:45 PM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

There is zero chance that 53.6% of Italians are dying of the virus and only 56.4% of them are recovering.

I recommend that whatever publication put that lie into your head you go right on ahead and cancel your membership to it right now.

Go on. Git!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Since you completely didn't know how to do the calculation - or even understand the numbers - you were wrong.

Have you figured out how you were wrong yet?
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Keep spreading the panic, Maddow.


Cause there's zero chance that over 14.5% of Italians that got it have died either.

For every person who's been tested, there's 10 to 100 people who haven't been because they didn't even know they were sick or they're not pussies that go to the doctor every time they get the sniffles.


More like 1.4%, max. Even more likely 0.14% or less.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Since you were referring to the case fatality rate (or ratio) the updated US figure is 1.8%. https://www.2minutemedicine.com/temporal-estimates-of-case-fatality-ra
te-for-covid-19-outbreaks-in-canada-and-the-united-states
/

You were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=15 http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=16
Thursday, March 19, 2020 5:00 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
There's probably a million people with it in the States. Maybe ten. Twenty?

They've tested 41k as of yesterday. By the time they put a dent in testing, half the people they test will have already gotten over it and not even known they had it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

And not even know they had it? That's a tall order to prove! Which means that ... you were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=17
Friday, March 20, 2020 9:38 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We don't know what happened in Italy yet. Compared to the rest of the world, that is an anomaly. It would suit you well to remember that and stop freaking out about the unknown until there are more facts.


Because right here in the united states, 150 people died so far since this started.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Yeah Italy must have been an anomaly. So was Wuhan. So was NYC. So is Laredo, TX, which has had to call in hundreds of extra staff from elsewhere. https://www.chron.com/local/article/Governor-Abbott-issues-order-to-ex
pand-hospital-15377052.php
So many anomalies, one doesn't know where normal ends and anomalies begin!

You were wrong.
Quote:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=18
Sunday, March 22, 2020 9:59 AM Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

No. Your numbers are bad. For 15 Million people to die, you're basing them on 4.6% of people getting the virus dying if we all got infected, when it's much more likely to be only. .1%.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Or , rather than being 0.1%, the case fatality rate is 18TIMES higher at 1.8%.

You were wrong.
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

The only people who are easily terrified are those who have never faced any adversity in their lives.

You should be grateful for your extremely privileged life that you've grown accustomed to and try not focusing on what you might lose so you won't feel so bad about it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)



I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.


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Sunday, July 5, 2020 11:47 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


LOL

OK Karen.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, July 5, 2020 11:51 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Reality bites, doesn't it, Karen? I'd call you Kevin, but you're the whiniest, most clueless, most entitled bitch I know.


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Monday, July 6, 2020 12:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


No. I'm fine with reality.

I reject your version of reality. Your posts are taken out of context and are an incorrect representation of what I've said all along. You know this.

You hate being wrong. That's understandable. But you are wrong.

The more time that passes, the more stupid you're going to look. Especially if you don't just let it go and you continue to double down on stupid.


My advice, Karen, would be to go argue with the trolls. You're far out of your depth if you want to continue arguing with me.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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