REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Monday, June 1, 2020 18:10
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VIEWED: 21613
PAGE 10 of 34

Sunday, March 1, 2020 4:21 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 4:42 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Updatiing from 24 Feb.

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Another organization of cases in America, Canada.



America
#1 20 Jan. Seattle. Flew in from China. Released 4 Feb.
#2 24 Jan. Chicago. Woman flew in from Wuhan. Later infected husband. (web)
#3 26 Jan. 1st in CA, Orange Co (likely Santa Ana) (web)
#4 26 Jan. 2nd case in CA. LA County. (web)
#5 26 Jan. Maricopa Co, AZ. (web)
#6 30 Jan. Chicago. Husband of #2, person-to-person. (web)
#7 31 Jan. Santa Clara Co, CA. Man flew in from China. (web)
#8 1 Feb. Boston MA. Flew nto Logan from China. (web)
#9 2 Feb. CA, Bay Area. Woman from China. (web)
#10 3 Feb. NYC.
#11 3 Feb. Santa Clara Co, CA. Person-to-person, from #7.
#12 5 Feb. Madison, WI. Flew in from China.
#13 11 Feb. Evacuee from China, now in San Diego. ( MCAS Miramar) (web)
#14 12 Feb. Evacuee from Wuhan, now at MCAS Miramar (San Diego), not from #13 (web)
#15 13 Feb. Evacuee from China, now at TX AFB. 1st case in TX.
__ Total 3 cases of evacuees, 12 of non-evacuees.
#16
#17
#18
#19
#20


#35
__As of 21 Feb, 35 cases are 13 from non-evacuees, 21 evacuees.
#36 22 Feb. (21 repatriated, 14 non-evacuees)


#60
__60 cases include 45 evacuees from China, Diamond Princess, and 15 from non-evacuees.
#61
#62 Solano Co, CA. 1st discovered community case, of unknown origin or connection/contact.
#63 28 Feb. Santa Clara Co, CA. 2nd community case. Not connected, but 60 miles from #62.



__As of 29 Feb, 22 cases in US.
__As of 1 Mar, 25 cases in US (non-evacuees). New in WA, OR, RI.

#70 1 Mar.

The general trend is that the "new" cases discovered from Diamond Princess will trickle down.
Before "community" cases, the non-evacuee cases were effectively stagnant, not growing.
But new "community" cases are another matter.



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Sunday, March 1, 2020 4:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


From 28 FEb.
Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yanno Jack - it's not as if I didn't do any reading either, or understand the basic biological processes, or the testing technology, electronics, chemistry, or ... anything.

But I know you'll dismiss that.

I bit of a rant there.
Quote:

My lived experience doesn't count.
I know people who have had life experience teaching them that they really do speak to The Lord, and God really does listen to them, and they know their religion is the only one true religion. So you claiming the same thing about your AIDS Religion is not really a logically convincing discourse.
Quote:

All the science, technology, and biology my understanding is based on is brainwashing.
This seems a strawman from you.
I do understand that you may have not been serious in this strawman, due to the tone of derision, flippancy, sarcasm.
For those of us not attending the Church of your AIDS religion, it is disappointing that you have abandoned your science, technology, and biology to suspend disbelief in order to devoutly follow your AIDS Religion. Your illogic refutes your implied assertion that you are not brainwashed.
Quote:


All the studies I read

carefully selected by you to support your belief system and not contradict your devout following of your AIDS Religion.
Quote:

from all the researchers in all the countries all around the world over all the decades are just some global hoax.
Without the sarcasm, it would seem you are finally opening your eyes, and your mind.
Quote:


You have no problems dismissing all of that, because that lets you keep your religion.


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Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

1KIKI:
Yanno Jack - it's not as if I didn't do any reading either, or understand the basic biological processes, or the testing technology, electronics, chemistry, or ... anything.

But I know you'll dismiss that. My lived experience doesn't count

JSF: I bit of a rant there.

KIKI: All the science, technology, and biology my understanding is based on is brainwashing.

JSF: This seems a strawman from you.
For those of us not attending the Church of your AIDS religion, it is dissapointing that you have abandoned your science, technology, and biology to suspect disbelief in order to devoutly folow

All the studies I read from all the researchers in all the countries all around the world over all the decades are just some global hoax.

Where is your EVIDENCE? Bring your cites and links here, so we can discuss them, because everything I have read says otherwise.

In order to meet the criteria that the HIV virus causes disease, it meets the following criteria:

The presence of the virus is correlated with the disease. While not everyone who has the virus has the symptoms, everone who has the symptoms has the virus.

Those who previously did not have the virus (demonstrated) later acquire both symptoms and virus after exposure.

Focusing treatment on the virus (with anti-retrovirals and other anti-virals) reduces both symptoms and assayed viral load.

It seems to me that the person with th religion is you, so bring your arguments forth and we can discuss them. But, if you resort to For all we know, this is all a dream I'll consider that you have forfeited your argument, since you can say that about ANYTHING.


*****

Now, I'm well aware that there are many "diseases" that aren't caused by germs: Heart disease. Stroke. Type II diabetes. Nutritional deficiencies like pellagra disease that were first thought (mistakenly) to be like leprosy (which IS caused by a "germ"). Rhuematoid arthritis and other autoimmune "dieases". Genetic and mitochondrial diseases.

Still, you can't dismiss the "germ theory of disease" in relationship to AIDS. Well, maybe YOU can, but you shouldn't.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



You two I'm sure 'believe' that such a thing as cholera exists - even thought you've never known anyone who had it, or known anyone who's known anyone. The max number of cholera cases in the US is 23 per year, which makes your chances of ever personally running into it less than 1 in 10million in any year, or, over 30 years, less than 3 in a million.

There are 1.1 million HIV positive people in the US, or roughly 1 in every 350 people. Now, you claim you don't 'know' anyone who's HIV positive ... but then, are you the kind of person anyone would tell about their HIV status? You may know one or more people who are HIV positive, but they haven't told you because ... you.

But you know me. And I knew a gay couple where both were HIV positive, who later died of AIDS (this was in the days before antiretroviral therapy). And I know one person now who's HIV positive, on long-term antiretroviral therapy without AIDS. So you know at least one person who knows someone ... which I'm sure you'll ignore.

And that's what makes it your religion. You 'believe' in things like cholera you have even less evidence for, and choose to NOT 'believe' things for which there's ample evidence like HIV as the cause of AIDS.

Jack's been converted to his religion because he's in the midst of a decades-long tantrum about how 'they terrorized' him, and JSF because he swallowed some hokum 40 years ago and hasn't learned anything new since (and he probably has some homophobic beliefs that make him want to think the 'gay-lifestyle' got justly punished).


https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/overview/data-and-trends/statistics
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310582/


Meanwhile. here are a few of hundreds of papers indicating HIV as the cause of AIDS, which btw, nobody has been able to scientifically challenge in the least since the 1990's.

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/325c/71bc9cd24b57a04a77302e49500818ad
f285.pdf

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/260/5112/1273.abstract
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1424581/pdf/pubhealthrep0
0105-0073.pdf

https://muse.jhu.edu/article/401243/summary



But when it comes to religions like global warming, Iraq's WMDs, or HIV/ AIDS, facts are irrelevant. So unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.


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Sunday, March 1, 2020 5:50 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
bullshit

fify

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 6:01 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-spread-us

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Sunday that “community spread” cases of the virus, which cannot be directly traced to anyone, are becoming more prevalent in the United States.

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 6:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


lol Religion.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 6:40 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
You two...



And you two... you and Siggy... have been posting here long enough (and are smart enough) to know all too well what a couple of nimrods those 2 are. Screw politics and sides - they have more issues than Conde Nast.

Coronavirus tidbit: the virus may have been here for some time. Health care professionals have not necessarily been looking for it though. When someone presents with pneumonia or flu symptoms they are not necessarily suspected or tested for a "new" flu, so the diagnosis may have been missed. It could explain why some people seem to have no trace back to a known carrier or hot place and why it seems to be popping up in so many countries so "quickly." It may have already been there but not until China are we focused on that strain specifically and looking for it.

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 6:46 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol Religion.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Cites and links?

Otherwise: "LOL religion", to you.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 7:56 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by captaincrunch:
Coronavirus tidbit: the virus may have been here for some time. Health care professionals have not necessarily been looking for it though. When someone presents with pneumonia or flu symptoms they are not necessarily suspected or tested for a "new" flu, so the diagnosis may have been missed. It could explain why some people seem to have no trace back to a known carrier or hot place and why it seems to be popping up in so many countries so "quickly." It may have already been there but not until China are we focused on that strain specifically and looking for it.

SARS-COV-2 (the official name of the virus) exhibits explosive spread. Even given that initial cases at low levels might have been missed, once established, it quickly becomes obvious.

As I posted earlier, imo an uptick in pneumonia or heart failure deaths during flu season, especially scattered here and there in the US, might go unnoticed because the healthcare system is too spotty. But other countries with better healthcare systems would find a quickly-spreading virus reasonably soon. I think it really did originate in Wuhan, and spread out from there. But, as I also posted earlier, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were whole pockets of transmission in the US that went under the radar, for the simple reasons that ~ there are high-risk areas where roughly 100,000 Chinese arrive every month like here in SoCal (and it was spreading even before the Chinese even announced a problem), ~ medical access is poor, ~ and once they knew there was a problem, the CDC/ US government literally forbade testing if a suspicious illness didn't come from a high-risk history.

I'd be really curious to see if my 'influenza B/ Victoria strain' flu was in fact coronavirus, if they come up with an antibody test for past exposure. I'm STILL coughing, weeks later.

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 9:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
lol Religion.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Cites and links?

Otherwise: "LOL religion", to you.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!




Yup. The flying spaghetti monster told me AIDS wasn't real while I was worshiping at his (or her) altar.

I'a Dagon I'a Hydra I'a I'a Cthulhu Fhtagn!!!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 10:10 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.



Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 11:16 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.



Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!




I honestly don't give a shit what your opinion about AIDS is, and I certainly don't give a shit about what you think of mine.

I'm never going to get it in my life, and the same would be true if I spent every day for the rest of my life taking it up the ass from a different dude while injecting myself with used hypodermic needles.

It would probably be a pretty short life anyway, but not because of AIDS.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, March 1, 2020 11:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.



Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!


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Sunday, March 1, 2020 11:41 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda75
94740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

87 US
86 Total Confirmed

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Monday, March 2, 2020 12:39 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


timeline of events in China as reported

https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-samples-destroyed/

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Monday, March 2, 2020 12:45 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.



Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!




All hail the No-AIDS God. Blessed be his AIDS free existence, and the AIDS free existence of all of his followers.

I'a Dagon I'a Hydra I'a I'a Cthulhu Fhtagn!!!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


KIKI, leave SIX alone about this. I worry about his emotional state and his sobriety, He may be drunk-posting again.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:10 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Nope. Not drinking.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:37 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
KIKI, leave SIX alone about this. I worry about his emotional state and his sobriety, He may be drunk-posting again.

I don't worry. He's a big boy. If he wants discussion he needs to post something resembling reality. If he insists on having his fantasies coddled, he's not going to get that from me.

eta: But he definitely has a very glitchy response to anything that makes him feel threatened/ overwhelmed. And he's decided he's going to get rid of his anxieties by denying reality. Because he's only got 2 responses: either your COWERING BEHIND A MASK or THERE'S NO SERIOUS CORONAVIRUS. In his mind, there's no such thing as taking precautions without any cowering. Either you're A TERRORIZED LITTLE BOY or THERE'S NO SUCH THINGS AS HIV/ AIDS. In all his years he can't grasp the middle ground that says you can take precaution without being terrorized. And so on.

Eh. His problem. But I don't have to tolerate the nonsense either.

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:38 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
stupidity


fify


Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.



Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!



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Monday, March 2, 2020 2:37 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nope. Not drinking.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Good.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 8:12 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Yup. I'm not going to start drinking because somebody is trying to force their religion on me.

If that were the case, I'd have been drinking all this time since the Jehovah's Witnesses haven't gotten the hint after 8 years.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:36 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, still, don't be offended if I ignore everything you post about AIDS. Just because someone weaponized it ("Never let a good crisis go to waste") doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.

*****

Total cases in Italy 2000
Virus in 7 USA states
South Korea has more than 2000 infections, adherents to the sect thru which it spread concentrated in southern California
More than 30 nations across the globe, with "new cases" exceeding China's

AND YET, WHO, AND TEDROS, STILL HAVE NOT DECLARED A PANDEMIC.
Someone should really look into those "pandemic bonds".

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 1:53 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Yup. I'm not going to start drinking because somebody is trying to force their religion post their facts on to me.


Do Right, Be Right. :)

fify

Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 3:25 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


The irony.

Beliefs which have not and cannot be proven are known as Religion, or Cult.
Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Unless you post relevant UP TO DATE FACTS to back your religion up, I'll not discuss this further and I'll simply mock your ignorance.

You're worse than an idiot about HIV/ AIDS.

So you rant on about your AIDS Religion.
Quote:


Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!

And then your signature makes fun of yourself.

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Monday, March 2, 2020 3:50 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Where is your EVIDENCE? Bring your cites and links here, so we can discuss them, because everything I have read says otherwise.

In order to meet the criteria that the HIV virus causes disease, it meets the following criteria:

Meaning the following 4 pillars are equally loaded, and the failure of any one pillar collapses the premise/hypothesis/belief.
Quote:


1. The presence of the virus is correlated with the disease.

Here you are tiptoeing carefully round the facts. I don't have my books or references handy right now, so I must recall what I can. Of the correlations of "the disease" (meaning the symptom package), the presence of the HIV Antibody ranks 3rd, with around 80% correlation among those not subjected to "AIDS Medications" (aka Drugs). The 2 correlations which are greater are one at about mid-80's and the other about 92%. I forget the order of the 2, but the correlations are for Marijuana Abuse, and for Cocaine Use/Abuse. Not the greatest or most convincing argument for any virus causing any "desease" - although in reasearch, correlation is a useful clue.
Correlation does not equal causation.
Quote:

2. While not everyone who has the virus has the symptoms, everone who has the symptoms has the virus.
This is not true. If it were true, then far more folk would have less reason to dispute the premise. Not all who have the symptoms have the HIV Antibody (which is the "test for HIV"). Since the 1920s or 1930s, many thousands of those who have had the symptoms did not have the HIV Antibody (known) although they did still have the known causes of these symptoms - just like these "AIDS" cases continue to have the same known causes, known and listed in DSM-IV since the 1950's.
But you have chosen to dismiss these known causes of the known immuno-deficiencies because you want to shove these known causes under the "gay lifestyle" umbrella, despite them being well-documented for decades, if not centuries.
Quote:

3. Those who previously did not have the virus (demonstrated) later acquire both symptoms and virus after exposure.
This is not true. For groups who were "exposed" and tested positive for the HIV Antibody, and then LEFT UNTREATED for decades, symptoms and "disease" never presented and they had normally healthy lives.
Quote:

4. Focusing treatment on the virus (with anti-retrovirals and other anti-virals) reduces both symptoms and assayed viral load.

So, of the 4 required pillars (as you stated), 3 are failures, so your premise collapses. As does your denomination/sect of your AIDS Religion.
Quote:


It seems to me that the person with th religion is you, so bring your arguments forth and we can discuss them.

*****

Now, I'm well aware that there are many "diseases" that aren't caused by germs: Heart disease. Nutritional deficiencies like pellagra disease. Rhuematoid arthritis and other autoimmune "dieases". Genetic and mitochondrial diseases.

Still, you can't dismiss the "germ theory of disease" in relationship to AIDS. Well, maybe YOU can, but you shouldn't.

To help move this discussion along a bit, can you name the person who developed the hypothesis that "AIDS" was caused by HIV? If you wish to include the year, that is fine as well.

If you are looking for information to enlighten yourself, I noticed virusmyth.com - which I had not seen before, but I recognize many of the authors.

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Monday, March 2, 2020 4:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Where is your EVIDENCE? Bring your cites and links here, so we can discuss them, because everything I have read says otherwise.

In order to meet the criteria that the HIV virus causes disease, it meets the following criteria:...

JSF: Meaning the following 4 pillars are equally loaded, and the failure of any one pillar collapses the premise/hypothesis/belief.
1
SIGNY.... The presence of the virus is correlated with the disease...

JSF: Here you are tiptoeing carefully round the facts. I don't have my books or references handy right now, so I must recall what I can. Of the correlations of "the disease" (meaning the symptom package), the presence of the HIV Antibody ranks 3rd, with around 80% correlation among those not subjected to "AIDS Medications" (aka Drugs). The 2 correlations which are greater are one at about mid-80's and the other about 92%. I forget the order of the 2, but the correlations are for Marijuana Abuse, and for Cocaine Use/Abuse. Not the greatest or most convincing argument for any virus causing any "desease" - although in reasearch, correlation is a useful clue.
Correlation does not equal causation.

I have no idea WTF you're writing about. Maybe you need to drill down a little on what the "symptom package" is, and what is being correlated to what, because I am not thinking about generic symptoms like "diarrhea" or "weight loss". So be specific... WHAT is being correlated to marijuana and cocaine?

I'll leave the rest for later.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 5:01 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Where is your EVIDENCE? Bring your cites and links here, so we can discuss them, because everything I have read says otherwise.

In order to meet the criteria that the HIV virus causes disease, it meets the following criteria:...

JSF: Meaning the following 4 pillars are equally loaded, and the failure of any one pillar collapses the premise/hypothesis/belief.
1
SIGNY.... The presence of the virus is correlated with the disease...

JSF: Here you are tiptoeing carefully round the facts. I don't have my books or references handy right now, so I must recall what I can. Of the correlations of "the disease" (meaning the symptom package), the presence of the HIV Antibody ranks 3rd, with around 80% correlation among those not subjected to "AIDS Medications" (aka Drugs). The 2 correlations which are greater are one at about mid-80's and the other about 92%. I forget the order of the 2, but the correlations are for Marijuana Abuse, and for Cocaine Use/Abuse. Not the greatest or most convincing argument for any virus causing any "desease" - although in reasearch, correlation is a useful clue.
Correlation does not equal causation.

I have no idea WTF you're writing about. Maybe you need to drill down a little on what the "symptom package" is, and what is being correlated to what, because I am not thinking about generic symptoms like "diarrhea" or "weight loss". So be specific... WHAT is being correlated to marijuana and cocaine?

I'll leave the rest for later.

Short answer: All of the 30+ diseases with their known symptoms and known causes which have, post-1980, been redefined as "AIDS" - even though all of the same exact causes are present, and all of the same exact symptoms are present.

The so-called "AIDS" cases were defined and classed by the "AIDS" advocates to support their AIDS epidemic hysteria, so whatever they used as definition was what was used for the correlation. Since the AIDS hoax was not scientific, it is not like we can retroactively make scientific the illogical diagnosis, they were merely accepted for the criteria of determining correlation.

Somebdy mentioned 2 examples earlier - Kaposi's Sarcoma, and pneumocystis carinii.

I cannot pretend surprise if diarrhea or weight loss were used by AIDS advocates to define their "AIDS" cases, so if that is what the AIDS movement chose to define the cases, then nobody has been able to talk sense into them, then or now.


eta:


WHO’S RECOMMENDED CASE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Different case definitions are used in different countries, depending on population factors (children, adults, relative occurrence of opportunistic infection) and on the laboratory infrastructure and training available. Current most used case definitions include for countries with... more sophisticated laboratory facilities
CDC 1987 (1)
CDC/CD4 (2)
European (3)

limited laboratory facilities
Abidjan/WHO (4)
Bangui/WHO (clinical) (5)
Caracas/PAHO (6) revised Caracas/PAHO (7)

1. 1987 CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Without laboratory evidence of HIV infection (in the absence of other causes of immune suppression)

Indicator disease diagnosed definitively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus, trachea, bronchi, or lungs
Cryptococcosis, extrapulmonary
Cryptosporidiosis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Cytomegalovirus diseases of an organ other than liver spleen, or lymph nodes in a patient >1 month of age
Herpes simplex virus infection causing a mucocutaneous ulcer persisting > 1 month; or bronchitis, pneumonitis, or
oesophagitis for any duration in a patient > 1 month of age
Kaposi’ s sarcoma in a patient < 60 years of age
Lymphoma of the brain(primary) affecting a patient < 60 years of age
Mycobacterium avuim complex or M .kansasii disease, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to
lungs, skin, or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient > 1 month of age

With laboratory evidence of HIV infection
Indicator diseases diagnosed definitively
Coccidiomycosis, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
HIV encephalopathy
Histoplasmosis, disseminated(at a sit other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Isosporiasis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Kaposi’ s sarcoma at any age
Lymphoma of the brain (primary ) at any age
Non-Hodgkin’ s lymphoma
Any mycobacterial disease caused by mycobacteria other than M. tuberculosis, disseminated
Disease caused by M. tuberculosis, extrapulmonary
Salmonella (non-typhoid ) septicaemia, recurrent
HIV wasting syndrome
Indicator diseases diagnosed presumptively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus
Cytomegalovirus retinitis with loss of vision
Kaposi’ s sarcoma
Mycobacterial disease, disseminated
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient> 1 month of age

2. CONDITIONS* ADDED TO THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION 1993 SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS (WITH LABORATORY EVIDENCE OF HIV INFECTION in addition to those in the 1987 surveillance definition:

Source: WHO Recommended Surveillance Standards.
(Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO/EMC/DIS/97.1, 1997).
See http://www.who.int/emc

Centers for Disease Control, United States

The dominant definition currently is that developed by the Centers for Disease Control in the United States. It offers the following summary definition (at http://www.cdc.gov/nchstp/hiv_aids/pubs/faq/faq2.htm):

AIDS stands for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. An HIV-infected person receives a diagnosis of AIDS after developing one of the CDC-defined AIDS indicator illnesses. An HIV-positive person who has not had any serious illnesses also can receive an AIDS diagnosis on the basis of certain blood tests (CD4+ counts).

A positive HIV test result does not mean that a person has AIDS. A diagnosis of AIDS is made by a physician using certain clinical criteria (e.g., AIDS indicator illnesses).


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Monday, March 2, 2020 7:21 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN

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Monday, March 2, 2020 7:55 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN



This site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
now says 18% of Active Cases are critical/serious, 6% of Closed cases are fatal.


DP cases have 7 deaths. 100 recovered, 36 serious/critical.

US is in 12th place, with 99 cases and 9 recoveries. Had 1 death, and today adds 5 for total of 6. 1st death was reported 29 Feb, in WA. All deaths were also in WA, at a Nursing facility.

Canada is 20th place, with 27 cases, 7 recoveries. 0 deaths.



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Monday, March 2, 2020 8:46 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Well, I see that the press is no longer reporting which case is which, but the total is up to 100. But that only includes 26 confirmed, plus 45 from DP, and 3 from Wuhan. So 74 confirmed cases.

In the past day, a Pawtucket RI teacher who was on a field trip to Italy was after an Oregon case at a school, and a WA case at a nursing home.
The 1st death was in WA, a case which was apparently unknown until death. All deaths currently were in WA, mostly at a nursing facility.
2 more new cases are the first 2 in FL.


I have not found a listing of which cases are where in the US. Has aybody found a site with such info?


This site has numbers which do not add up:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ontario-reports-three-coronavirus-cases-1707
27754.html

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Monday, March 2, 2020 10:06 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
The irony.

No irony. I posted links to FACTS.

Did you read them?

Even one?

The first 2 or 3 words of the first title?

Here they are - AGAIN.


https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/325c/71bc9cd24b57a04a77302e49500818ad
f285.pdf
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/260/5112/1273.abstract
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1424581/pdf/pubhealthrep0
0105-0073.pdf
https://muse.jhu.edu/article/401243/summary


Before you dig yourself in even further, maybe you should READ PEOPLE'S POSTS before you ASSume they're not posting facts. Capiche?

Belief is for wimps and mental midgets!

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Monday, March 2, 2020 10:13 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Short answer: All of the 30+ diseases with their known symptoms and known causes which have, post-1980, been redefined as "AIDS" - even though all of the same exact causes are present, and all of the same exact symptoms are present.

Quite obviously you have NO idea what an 'opportunistic pathogen' is.

And that's a lack of basic information that keeps you from understanding your own post.

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Monday, March 2, 2020 10:25 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Short answer: All of the 30+ diseases with their known symptoms and known causes which have, post-1980, been redefined as "AIDS" - even though all of the same exact causes are present, and all of the same exact symptoms are present.

Quite obviously you have NO idea what an 'opportunistic pathogen' is.

And that's a lack of basic information that keeps you from understanding your own post.



Nilbog is an opportunistic pathogen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 10:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, still, don't be offended if I ignore everything you post about AIDS. Just because someone weaponized it ("Never let a good crisis go to waste") doesn't mean that it doesn't exist.



That's fine.

At the end of the day, whether I believe AIDS is real or isn't real it's never going to effect me or anybody I care about.

It's pretty much pointless that we've even discussed it as much as we have already. It is and always was a big fat nothing burger.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 10:47 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I can't believe this. SOMEbody must be punking us.


38% Of People In Survey Are Avoiding Corona Beer Due To Coronavirus
https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/americans-avoiding-corona-beer-a
mid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey
/

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Monday, March 2, 2020 11:36 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Yeah... I told my old man the other day that I wouldn't want to own stock in Corona beer. How unfortunate for them .

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, March 2, 2020 11:47 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
I can't believe this. SOMEbody must be punking us.


38% Of People In Survey Are Avoiding Corona Beer Due To Coronavirus
https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/americans-avoiding-corona-beer-a
mid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey/




I can believe it Kiki.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:49 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Short answer: All of the 30+ diseases with their known symptoms and known causes which have, post-1980, been redefined as "AIDS" - even though all of the same exact causes are present, and all of the same exact symptoms are present.

The so-called "AIDS" cases were defined and classed by the "AIDS" advocates to support their AIDS epidemic hysteria, so whatever they used as definition was what was used for the correlation. Since the AIDS hoax was not scientific, it is not like we can retroactively make scientific the illogical diagnosis, they were merely accepted for the criteria of determining correlation.

Somebdy mentioned 2 examples earlier - Kaposi's Sarcoma, and pneumocystis carinii.

I cannot pretend surprise if diarrhea or weight loss were used by AIDS advocates to define their "AIDS" cases, so if that is what the AIDS movement chose to define the cases, then nobody has been able to talk sense into them, then or now.


eta:


WHO’S RECOMMENDED CASE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Different case definitions are used in different countries, depending on population factors (children, adults, relative occurrence of opportunistic infection) and on the laboratory infrastructure and training available. Current most used case definitions include for countries with... more sophisticated laboratory facilities
CDC 1987 (1)
CDC/CD4 (2)
European (3)

limited laboratory facilities
Abidjan/WHO (4)
Bangui/WHO (clinical) (5)
Caracas/PAHO (6) revised Caracas/PAHO (7)

1. 1987 CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Without laboratory evidence of HIV infection (in the absence of other causes of immune suppression)

Indicator disease diagnosed definitively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus, trachea, bronchi, or lungs
Cryptococcosis, extrapulmonary
Cryptosporidiosis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Cytomegalovirus diseases of an organ other than liver spleen, or lymph nodes in a patient >1 month of age
Herpes simplex virus infection causing a mucocutaneous ulcer persisting > 1 month; or bronchitis, pneumonitis, or
oesophagitis for any duration in a patient > 1 month of age
Kaposi’ s sarcoma in a patient < 60 years of age
Lymphoma of the brain(primary) affecting a patient < 60 years of age
Mycobacterium avuim complex or M .kansasii disease, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to
lungs, skin, or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient > 1 month of age

With laboratory evidence of HIV infection
Indicator diseases diagnosed definitively
Coccidiomycosis, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
HIV encephalopathy
Histoplasmosis, disseminated(at a sit other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Isosporiasis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Kaposi’ s sarcoma at any age
Lymphoma of the brain (primary ) at any age
Non-Hodgkin’ s lymphoma
Any mycobacterial disease caused by mycobacteria other than M. tuberculosis, disseminated
Disease caused by M. tuberculosis, extrapulmonary
Salmonella (non-typhoid ) septicaemia, recurrent
HIV wasting syndrome
Indicator diseases diagnosed presumptively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus
Cytomegalovirus retinitis with loss of vision
Kaposi’ s sarcoma
Mycobacterial disease, disseminated
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient> 1 month of age

2. CONDITIONS* ADDED TO THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION 1993 SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS (WITH LABORATORY EVIDENCE OF HIV INFECTION in addition to those in the 1987 surveillance definition:

Source: WHO Recommended Surveillance Standards.
(Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO/EMC/DIS/97.1, 1997).
See http://www.who.int/emc

Centers for Disease Control, United States

The dominant definition currently is that developed by the Centers for Disease Control in the United States. It offers the following summary definition (at http://www.cdc.gov/nchstp/hiv_aids/pubs/faq/faq2.htm):

AIDS stands for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. An HIV-infected person receives a diagnosis of AIDS after developing one of the CDC-defined AIDS indicator illnesses. An HIV-positive person who has not had any serious illnesses also can receive an AIDS diagnosis on the basis of certain blood tests (CD4+ counts).

A positive HIV test result does not mean that a person has AIDS. A diagnosis of AIDS is made by a physician using certain clinical criteria (e.g., AIDS indicator illnesses).


So, JSF ... you claimed a 92% correlation bewteen marijuana/cocaine and ... something.

Of the various INDICATORS of AIDS, WHICH ONE(S) correlate 92% to marijuna/cocaine?
Kaposi's sarcoma? Pneumocystis carnii? Toxoplamosis?
Explain exactly, please, what your "correlations" are about.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2:33 AM

WISHIMAY

THIS machine kills fascists- Woody Guthrie


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Here Nilbog has not one mention of AIDS.




OH NOES, I left out the other statistic on the page. Don't much matter to 6ix EITHER WAY, which is my point. 20k or 80k, he doesn't know any at risk group people so he thinks it doesn't exist.


Go have sex with some inner city crack whores, and we'll see what he catches...


In 2018, 17,032 people in the U.S. and 6 dependent areas received a stage 3 (AIDS) diagnosis. (The late stage of HIV infection that occurs when the body’s immune system is badly damaged because of the virus.)

In 2017, there were 16,350 deaths among adults and adolescents with diagnosed HIV in the United States and 6 dependent areas. These deaths may be due to any cause.





I'm wondering if he was terrorized by the tooth fairy or the Easter bunny too??

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 3:48 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Back to the OP:

I've been really puzzling about the SARS-COV-2 testing, or lack of it. So I've been trying to track down what's with the test kits and testing.

And if somebody knows, they ain't telling!


Instead of using WHO's test kits, the CDC decided to develop their own, which caused a delay in testing, and managed to squeeze out very few kits.

I think that's why, when it comes to WHICH PEOPLE got tested, patients had to have come from a high-risk travel or exposure history, to ration the kits. THAT'S WHY THE RECENT WASHINGTON COMMUNITY-SPREAD CASE DIDN'T GET TESTED FOR 4 DAYS EVEN THOUGH THE DOCTORS WERE ASKING FOR IT. The patient didn't meet the CDC's high-risk travel or exposure history criteria. And the CDC refused. (It' still a mystery to me how the Washington doctors got around that. Maybe they filled out the forms with a nudge and a .)

Below is a screen grab which shows, as of March 1, the pathetically low number of people tested (and the fact that that category disappeared March 2):



As for which labs could do the testing, the best I could come up with is this:
Quote:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/tool-virus-requests.html

CDC’s diagnostic panel is intended for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified, and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests. This includes U.S. state and local public health laboratories and Department of Defense (DoD) laboratories.

Does that mean ALL state and local public health laboratories, and DoD laboratories are certified to do this 'high complexity' testing? I dunno. I dug around and the best I could some up with was a list of state agencies to contact to see if they could tell me which laboratories might be so certified. (And for the record, it's not going to happen.) https://www.cms.gov/Regulations-and-Guidance/Legislation/CLIA/Download
s/CLIASA.pdf



Noodling around the internet and putting things together I came up with this summary:

Apparently the original test kits sent out by the CDC were funky. A negative control (when you run it you're supposed to not find SARS-COV-2 DNA) was coming out positive in some laboratories. It looks like only a few laboratories were able to consistently pass all the QC checks including the negative control, and so those states got their state health departments certified to do the test themselves (6 days ago).

Those were California, Illinois, Nebraska, Nevada and Tennessee. https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-coronovirus-test.html

To work around their bungled test kits, the CDC asked for and received an emergency approval from the FDA to run the tests without the negative control. So another batch of states received certification to run their own tests 3-4 days ago.

It looks like these states are running the tests and reporting them as presumptive, while waiting for the CDC to re-run them for confirmation.



Alaska State Virology Lab based in Fairbanks
http://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/alaska-now-has-the-capacity-t
o-test-for-the-novel/article_73ab2072-5a7b-11ea-b93f-eb6a31f430e6.html

State public health lab approved to test for coronavirus as Connecticut Democrats fight for more federal funds
https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/Connecticut-health-lab-approv
ed-to-test-for-15092918.php

Coronavirus updates: Massachusetts Department of Public Health gets FDA approval to test for the virus
https://www.masslive.com/news/2020/02/massachusetts-department-of-publ
ic-health-gets-fda-ok-to-test-for-coronavirus.html

Iowa State Hygienic Laboratory now able to test for COVID-19
https://www.kcrg.com/content/news/Iowa-State-Hygienic-Laboratory-now-a
ble-to-test-for-COVID-19-568268641.html

COVID-19 coronavirus in New Hampshire: What you need to know
https://www.wmur.com/article/covid-19-coronavirus-new-hampshire-inform
ation/31193750

The coronavirus and South Dakota
https://www.capjournal.com/news/the-coronavirus-and-south-dakota/artic
le_aaefa03e-5c0c-11ea-a1f7-a743b6b9a5d2.html

2 new coronavirus cases emerge in Washington, in King and Snohomish counties
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/2-new-coronavirus-cas
es-emerge-in-washington-in-king-county-and-snohomish-county
/
Officials: 2 more pending coronavirus cases in Wisconsin, in-state testing sites available
https://fox6now.com/2020/03/02/state-health-officials-2-more-pending-c
oronavirus-cases-in-wisconsin
/

New York State apparently didn't wait around for the CDC and developed its own test kit, receiving FDA approval.
In New York, the State Department of Health has designed its own test based on the CDC protocol
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-co
ronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve


As of this article, it looks like Maryland is capable but was waiting for test kits.
Hogan cautions against coronavirus panic, encourages residents 'to stay informed' (Maryland)
https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/health/treatment_and_diseases/h
ogan-cautions-against-coronavirus-panic-encourages-residents-to-stay-informed/article_1bf496e1-bcbc-57cc-8418-b13f19ec3110.html


I couldn't find any indication other states were testing their own samples, so those are probably going to the CDC.



Shortly after that the CDC minimally relaxed its criteria for testing. But they're still highly limited by the CDC's revised - but still extremely restrictive - criteria. Patients no longer need to have a high-risk travel or exposure history, but they need to develop a high fever along with other symptoms. That means mild cases will of course go untested, and thus undetected. What a sick joke. Yeah, let's brag some more about how 'few' cases there are in the US.



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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 11:49 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/asia/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-int
l-hnk/index.html


The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said that public health officials are operating in "uncharted territory" as they combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has infected more than 90,000 people across 73 countries and territories as of Monday evening.

The WHO has so far held off on classifying the incident as a global pandemic, but has warned it is a possibility in the near future.

The pandemic bonds mature July 2020.
Quote:

"Let's be clear: The risk to the American people of the coronavirus remains low, according to all of the experts that we are working with across the government," Pence said.
Because there's "only" 100 cases in the US ... that they know of.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 12:19 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


As far as testing is concerned ... I read an article which I will try to find (but doubtful in the welter of articles out there) that said that EVERY state public health lab in the USA was equipped and prepared to run diagnostic tests by an alternate method. The article implied that this involved looking for the RNA of the virus itself by direct sequencing. (Apparently coronaviruses are retroviruses) That's 50 labs. I'm sure there are many commercial labs equipped and prepared to do the same thing.


But the CDC is reluctant to sign off on an alternate test method ... I'm sure you understand both the urgency for, and the hesitation about implementing alternate test methods in a time-critical situation. As a former supervisor who's evaluated dozens of alternate methods and had to do rapid testing, sometimes for deadly poisons, I know I sure do! There's a huge problem if you fail to detect something meaningful.

But I would prolly sign off on alternate test methods if their performance was fairly well-known ... sensitivity, false positives v false negatives etc ... and design a program to take those test parameters into account. For example, if looking for viral RNA is plagued with false negatives, I would take a positive result as probative, but I would not "clear" patients with negative results until they had three negative results taken 7 days apart (or something like that).

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 12:40 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Meanwhile, the shock of discovering another "first" ... first patient, first death, first cluster ... in yet another nation, state, or province, seems to be wearing off.

We've been seeing patients being rushed to hospital under oxygen by medics in space suits, which is very scary, but some reports are coming back from people who have recovered, saying that it was no worse than having a cold.

What this probably will be is a MASS PROBLEM. MOST patients are going to recover just fine, but a certain portion ... especially the elderly and those with heart problems, diabetes, or respiratory problems ... are going to become extremely ill, and there won't be enough hospital beds, IF the spread of the coronavirus isn't slowed down by isolation measures.


Here is a video by Chris Martensen who is ALWAYS predicting the end of something. But, he also has a background in biology (epidemiology, I think) and has some interesting things to say. In particular, what he says is that viral exponential growth curves start out with a few isolated cases here and there. The next thing will be clusters, and right after that it will seem to be everywhere.



KIKI, since you have background in biology and medicine, I would particularly appreciate your take one this.

*****

In the meantime, dd and I are starting a new fashion statement: we're running errands in masks. (WOW! What a way to pull a bank robbery!) We've set up a "decontamination" station at the breezeway sink, which is our dividing line between "clean" and "dirty".

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:14 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
As far as testing is concerned ... I read an article which I will try to find (but doubtful in the welter of articles out there) that said that EVERY state public health lab in the USA was equipped and prepared to run diagnostic tests by an alternate method. The article implied that this involved looking for the RNA of the virus itself by direct sequencing. (Apparently coronaviruses are retroviruses) That's 50 labs. I'm sure there are many commercial labs equipped and prepared to do the same thing.


But the CDC is reluctant to sign off on an alternate test method ... I'm sure you understand both the urgency for, and the hesitation about implementing alternate test methods in a time-critical situation. As a former supervisor who's evaluated dozens of alternate methods and had to do rapid testing, sometimes for deadly poisons, I know I sure do! There's a huge problem if you fail to detect something meaningful.

But I would prolly sign off on alternate test methods if their performance was fairly well-known ... sensitivity, false positives v false negatives etc ... and design a program to take those test parameters into account. For example, if looking for viral RNA is plagued with false negatives, I would take a positive result as probative, but I would not "clear" patients with negative results until they had three negative results taken 7 days apart (or something like that).

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

If you want definitive results, there's a statistical thing called 'the power of the test' which has to do with false negatives (sensitivity) v false positives (specificity).

I think it would be much, much better to set up state labs as screening tests - where you really want an extremely sensitive, cheap, fast test (ER/ bedside is best) even if it comes at the expense of a lot of false positives. You can then re-test patients of concern with a better test method, (or even re-test with the initial method before moving on to the next level) after having weeded out everyone else.

And yanno, patients who initially test negative - perhaps for biological or sampling reasons - can always come back for retesting later.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:22 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I forgot to mention that as I was noodling around I found the CDC is also working on a serological test - one that looks for antibodies in the blood - to check for past exposure.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 1:26 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


THANKS for the video Signy - but I'll watch it later because I'm off! ... to run errands with mask and hand san that is.

That said "But, he also has a background in biology (epidemiology, I think) and has some interesting things to say. In particular, what he says is that viral exponential growth curves start out with a few isolated cases here and there. The next thing will be clusters, and right after that it will seem to be everywhere." is my prediction as well.

I ALSO want to add that if you're not screening/ testing for mild cases - AS THE CDC IS NOT - you won't know if you have an epidemic until your ERs are overwhelmed.

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Tuesday, March 3, 2020 8:54 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Short answer: All of the 30+ diseases with their known symptoms and known causes which have, post-1980, been redefined as "AIDS" - even though all of the same exact causes are present, and all of the same exact symptoms are present.

The so-called "AIDS" cases were defined and classed by the "AIDS" advocates to support their AIDS epidemic hysteria, so whatever they used as definition was what was used for the correlation. Since the AIDS hoax was not scientific, it is not like we can retroactively make scientific the illogical diagnosis, they were merely accepted for the criteria of determining correlation.

Somebdy mentioned 2 examples earlier - Kaposi's Sarcoma, and pneumocystis carinii.

I cannot pretend surprise if diarrhea or weight loss were used by AIDS advocates to define their "AIDS" cases, so if that is what the AIDS movement chose to define the cases, then nobody has been able to talk sense into them, then or now.


eta:


WHO’S RECOMMENDED CASE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Different case definitions are used in different countries, depending on population factors (children, adults, relative occurrence of opportunistic infection) and on the laboratory infrastructure and training available. Current most used case definitions include for countries with... more sophisticated laboratory facilities
CDC 1987 (1)
CDC/CD4 (2)
European (3)

limited laboratory facilities
Abidjan/WHO (4)
Bangui/WHO (clinical) (5)
Caracas/PAHO (6) revised Caracas/PAHO (7)

1. 1987 CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS

Without laboratory evidence of HIV infection (in the absence of other causes of immune suppression)

Indicator disease diagnosed definitively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus, trachea, bronchi, or lungs
Cryptococcosis, extrapulmonary
Cryptosporidiosis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Cytomegalovirus diseases of an organ other than liver spleen, or lymph nodes in a patient >1 month of age
Herpes simplex virus infection causing a mucocutaneous ulcer persisting > 1 month; or bronchitis, pneumonitis, or
oesophagitis for any duration in a patient > 1 month of age
Kaposi’ s sarcoma in a patient < 60 years of age
Lymphoma of the brain(primary) affecting a patient < 60 years of age
Mycobacterium avuim complex or M .kansasii disease, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to
lungs, skin, or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient > 1 month of age

With laboratory evidence of HIV infection
Indicator diseases diagnosed definitively
Coccidiomycosis, disseminated (at a site other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
HIV encephalopathy
Histoplasmosis, disseminated(at a sit other than or in addition to lungs or cervical or hilar lymph nodes)
Isosporiasis with diarrhoea persisting > 1 month
Kaposi’ s sarcoma at any age
Lymphoma of the brain (primary ) at any age
Non-Hodgkin’ s lymphoma
Any mycobacterial disease caused by mycobacteria other than M. tuberculosis, disseminated
Disease caused by M. tuberculosis, extrapulmonary
Salmonella (non-typhoid ) septicaemia, recurrent
HIV wasting syndrome
Indicator diseases diagnosed presumptively
Candidiasis of the oesophagus
Cytomegalovirus retinitis with loss of vision
Kaposi’ s sarcoma
Mycobacterial disease, disseminated
Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia
Toxoplasmosis of the brain in a patient> 1 month of age

2. CONDITIONS* ADDED TO THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION 1993 SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION FOR AIDS (WITH LABORATORY EVIDENCE OF HIV INFECTION in addition to those in the 1987 surveillance definition:

Source: WHO Recommended Surveillance Standards.
(Geneva: World Health Organization, WHO/EMC/DIS/97.1, 1997).
See http://www.who.int/emc

Centers for Disease Control, United States

The dominant definition currently is that developed by the Centers for Disease Control in the United States. It offers the following summary definition (at http://www.cdc.gov/nchstp/hiv_aids/pubs/faq/faq2.htm):

AIDS stands for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. An HIV-infected person receives a diagnosis of AIDS after developing one of the CDC-defined AIDS indicator illnesses. An HIV-positive person who has not had any serious illnesses also can receive an AIDS diagnosis on the basis of certain blood tests (CD4+ counts).

A positive HIV test result does not mean that a person has AIDS. A diagnosis of AIDS is made by a physician using certain clinical criteria (e.g., AIDS indicator illnesses).


So, JSF ... you claimed a 92% correlation bewteen marijuana/cocaine and ... something.

The "AIDS" cases. The cases diagnosed as AIDS.

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