REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Monday, June 1, 2020 18:10
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 21608
PAGE 16 of 34

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 3:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I'm not apologizing for shit.

Don't post stuff that you don't stand behind and misunderstandings won't happen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

KIKI posted about another article. YOU CLEARLY posted what was either a lie or a huge misunderstanding (ON YOUR PART). Instead of ASKING FOR CLARIFICATION, LIKE AN ADULT WOULD DO, YOU TOOK IT WAY BEYOND ITS MEANING AND POSTED AN ACCUSATION.

What, we can't discuss things that we don't fully agree or disagree on because it hits your ideological sore spot? And now you can't own up to your part of a misunderstanding?

Rather than shit up this thread, which I find interesting as KIKI has gone and done the work to bring the stats here, I'm simply going to ignore your posts and focus instead on relevant information.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 3:54 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe instead of "lol"ing at my comment that a National Healthcare System should terrify you, and then "lol"ing when I explained about the National School System as an example why, you could have just said that you weren't for it.

Because it sure as fuck sounds like it's what you want.

I think you need a time out from the News. You're turning into a lunatic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Also, BTW ... weren't you the one who was all for a Universal Basic Income, run by ... the government? Seems like you're all for the government doing SOME things centrally, doesn't it?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!



Yeah. I am.

UBI is certainly a lot better way of dispersing cash than 1.5 Trillion Dollar Wall Street Bailouts, and would be a much more fair system of distribution than any and all of the existing programs out there.

UBI is NOT brainwashing generations of future adults via a Federally Mandated Curriculum that must be adhered to or else you don't get the tax dollars.

UBI is NOT a centralized health care system which will ration off healthcare at its own whims and expect us all to be alright with the criminals in office holding the futures of all of our well beings in their hands.




You've got politicians talking about a temporary UBI right now during the virus. What do you think is going to happen when half of the existing jobs are automated and nobody will ever be able to go back to working them? It's really not that far off until that happens.



Major false equivalency there. Several in one post, in fact.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

=>SHITCAN

Just to be clear that I didn't miss this post, I'm not going to respond to it or anything else you post here.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 3:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Honestly, I could give two shits what Kiki thinks right now.

She called me "Kevin" because she seems to think that is my name after Nilbog said it and she was being a bitch. She also brought up the fact that Trump's odds are down when that wasn't even related to our conversation because she knew I wouldn't like that and she was being a bitch.


I've asked her what her beef was several times and she plays games until she goes insane? Not my problem.

If anybody should be apologizing, it's her.

But I'm not asking for it.

Man up, Kiki.


No hard feelings here if you're going to start behaving like a human being again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 3:57 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maybe instead of "lol"ing at my comment that a National Healthcare System should terrify you, and then "lol"ing when I explained about the National School System as an example why, you could have just said that you weren't for it.

Because it sure as fuck sounds like it's what you want.

I think you need a time out from the News. You're turning into a lunatic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Also, BTW ... weren't you the one who was all for a Universal Basic Income, run by ... the government? Seems like you're all for the government doing SOME things centrally, doesn't it?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!



Yeah. I am.

UBI is certainly a lot better way of dispersing cash than 1.5 Trillion Dollar Wall Street Bailouts, and would be a much more fair system of distribution than any and all of the existing programs out there.

UBI is NOT brainwashing generations of future adults via a Federally Mandated Curriculum that must be adhered to or else you don't get the tax dollars.

UBI is NOT a centralized health care system which will ration off healthcare at its own whims and expect us all to be alright with the criminals in office holding the futures of all of our well beings in their hands.




You've got politicians talking about a temporary UBI right now during the virus. What do you think is going to happen when half of the existing jobs are automated and nobody will ever be able to go back to working them? It's really not that far off until that happens.



Major false equivalency there. Several in one post, in fact.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

=>SHITCAN

Just to be clear that I didn't miss this post, I'm not going to respond to it or anything else you post here.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!




Then don't ask me questions you don't want to hear the answer to.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 4:15 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, there is certainly no ill wind that doesn't bring SOMEbody some good
Quote:

US halts deployment & recalls troops from NATO’s biggest drill ‘Defender Europe 2020’ due to coronavirus threat


I have mentioned before that the USA has to think about all of its troops, and all of its bases, on foreign soil: Japan. Germany. Mideast. South Korea. Places where the coronavirus could be steadily infiltrating our troops' quarters.


Like the well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected elites, our troops are also a risk.

*****

If this thing is as disruptive as China and Italy seem to indicate, then the way the world does business will have to change. If nations refuse to take effective measures, then they will probably suffer like China and Italy and their economies will suffer with them, along with a lot of people dying. If the DO take effective action, fewer people will die but economies will suffer anyway: frivolous consumption reduces, supply chains are broken, companies that depend on revenue to service their debt will falter.

Now, I know what will happen, at least here in the USA: The Fed will shit trillions at banks and big corporations, and the government maybe $330 billion to us peons. (That's $1000 for every person in the USA, including children, which sounds like a lot of money but is probably two or three orders of magnitude LESS than what's going to the wealthy elite.)

There will be sporadic and unccordinated quarantines, partial shudowns, random "shelter in place" orders, but we will only know of they're going to be effective in the bellweather states of Washington, California, New York and Connecticut (where the rich people of NYC live). Other states, which are far behind the experience, will hopefully take a lesson.

Testing is STILL constrained. Trump will try to control the bad news instead of facing it head-on, just like he and the Fed goosed the stock market instead of addressing the economy. The everything-bubble, which the Fed blew under Obama AND Trump, will pop. They will blame the coronavirus instead of the massive debt that they all took on.

EVERYONE will try to spin this to their advantage. The deep state would like total control on how people move and where they get their information. Pharmaceuticals would LOVE to be the company that comes up with the winning antivirals and vaccines. Hospital corporations and insurances (of all kinds, not just health insurances) are trying to figure out how to keep the ax from falling. All affected small businesses are going to want government handouts, and a lot of people are going to want paid vacations. Hedge funds, banks, and stock funds are going to use the virus as an excuse for their irresponsible borrowing/lending practices, and of course all of the banks and major corps are going to want handouts, too. Amazon, UPS and Fedex are going to do a booming business. So are the makers of sanitizing products.

*****

So, as I see it, there are three possible policy reactions to the virus:

Do nothing. Let it kill off 5% of your oldest and sickest, and a few of your younger productive people, let "herd immunity" develop, and get over the economic pain quickly. People will be pissed off. They will (rightly) feel that the government doesn't care about them. Governments may fall.

Devote a LOT of resources to testing, contact tracing, and isolation. Drive-thru testing, like S Korea. Involves a lot of resources for the testing and some pain for the quarantine part, but avoids both massive deaths with concommittant strain on medical care and government instability due to citizen dissatisfaction. It WOULD require a change in how medical care, or at leat medical testing, is delivered.

Rely on "social distancing" and untargted/uninformed lockdowns which are hugely disruptive economically. However, this may have the benefit of keeping the healthcare system functional, and also slow things down until more thorough testing can be implemented. It limits our personal freedoms and puts more control in the hands of government which, once placed there has a tendency to stay there.



It will be an interesting time. I'll put my thinking cap on.






-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 4:22 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by JACKASS
You like that better than Kevin?
Quote:


Honestly, I could give two shits what Kiki thinks right now.

Do you think I care?
Quote:

She called me "Kevin" because she seems to think that is my name after Nilbog said it and she was being a bitch. She also brought up the fact that Trump's odds are down when that wasn't even related to our conversation
Neither was anything that JSF posted, but that didn't stop YOU - did it?
Quote:

because she knew I wouldn't like that and she was being a bitch.
TRUMP'S ODDS ARE down, you flatworm. I've notice you've become a raging asshole in proportion to Trump's sinking chances.

Don't blame ME that it's a fact.
Quote:

I've asked her what her beef was several times and she plays games until she goes insane?
Not once.
Quote:

Not my problem.
Being a lying asshole is.
Quote:



If anybody should be apologizing, it's her.

But I'm not asking for it.

Man up, Kiki.


No hard feelings here if you're going to start behaving like a human being again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=15#
1096868


Here 6ix. Instead of LOL'ing you to dismiss your lunacy, I'll just post this instead whenever you post something as stupid as you are.

YOU LIED ABOUT ME. I'm still waiting for an apology.

Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Not sure why this COVID-19 scare has you willing to go full Government Control over everything.

I suppose everyone has their price and they found yours.


Do Right, Be Right. :)


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:

FIND ME ONE QUOTE where I'm in favor of "full Government Control over everything" to stop COVID-19.



ASSHOLE.



NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 4:42 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, there is certainly no ill wind that doesn't bring SOMEbody some good
Quote:

US halts deployment & recalls troops from NATO’s biggest drill ‘Defender Europe 2020’ due to coronavirus threat


I have mentioned before that the USA has to think about all of its troops, and all of its bases, on foreign soil: Japan. Germany. Mideast. South Korea. Places where the coronavirus could be steadily infiltrating our troops' quarters.


Like the well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected elites, our troops are also a risk.

*****

If this thing is as disruptive as China and Italy seem to indicate, then the way the world does business will have to change. If nations refuse to take effective measures, then they will probably suffer like China and Italy and their economies will suffer with them, along with a lot of people dying. If the DO take effective action, fewer people will die but economies will suffer anyway: frivolous consumption reduces, supply chains are broken, companies that depend on revenue to service their debt will falter.

Now, I know what will happen, at least here in the USA: The Fed will shit trillions at banks and big corporations, and the government maybe $330 billion to us peons. (That's $1000 for every person in the USA, including children, which sounds like a lot of money but is probably two or three orders of magnitude LESS than what's going to the wealthy elite.)

There will be sporadic and unccordinated quarantines, partial shudowns, random "shelter in place" orders, but we will only know of they're going to be effective in the bellweather states of Washington, California, New York and Connecticut (where the rich people of NYC live). Other states, which are far behind the experience, will hopefully take a lesson.

Testing is STILL constrained. Trump will try to control the bad news instead of facing it head-on, just like he and the Fed goosed the stock market instead of addressing the economy. The everything-bubble, which the Fed blew under Obama AND Trump, will pop. They will blame the coronavirus instead of the massive debt that they all took on.

It will be an interesting time. I'll put my thinking cap on.






-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

Ultimately I don't think this will change what we do. As I mentioned to JO, there's too much literally invested in the way things are. Yes, there'll be disruption ... for a while. And I think you're right, instead of admitting that the asset bubbles were blown up with fake money, they'll just pretend it was all the fault of SARS-COV-2, and everything was just fine if only ...

But debt will be magically ignored, the chasms in how the economy 'functions' will be covered over with paper mâché, and eventually they way things are now will be restored.

And we're expendable.

I don't think things will change until there are literally too few people to keep the system running.

Just imo, of course.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:20 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I think, KIKI, that you're forgetting that China and Russia are subtly trying to topple the USA petrodollar at a time when we are at our most vulnerable (everything bubble, coronvirus, and now oil price war).

The Fed's only possible response (and I mean "only possible", the Fed literally doesn't have any other mode of action in its arsenal) is to pump even more debt into the economy. And while the government (Trump) has a lot more modes of action, it won't take them because Trump is unwilling or incapable of perceiving anything other than throwing more dollars into the bonfire.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:32 AM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

... stay crunchy...


People loosing their shit and we're basically on day 3 of what will likely be a many months national lock down.

That's oddly hi-larious.

Happy St. Patrick's day everyone!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 12:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Yes. It is pretty funny.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:12 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Yep, JACKASS has been losing his shit week by week as Trump's election chances go down - lying constantly, posting nonsense, and trolling non-stop.

lol

JACKASS IS A FUCKING LYING SACK OF SHIT. I WAS DESCRIBING AN ARTICLE I READ. I MADE NO PERSONAL COMMENT OF APPROVAL OR RECOMMENDATION.

Making sure you don't misread me - again.

Meanwhile, JACKASS AND MUSHY have found common cause! Who would have known a pandemic would have brought them together! At long last!

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:17 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Number Of Confirmed Covid-19 Cases In US Passes 5,000 As Global Total Nears 200K: Live Updates

...
Cuomo reports 432 new cases, bringing state total over 1,000 and retaking No. 1 spot

Enhanced testing

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:18 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think, KIKI, that you're forgetting that China and Russia are subtly trying to topple the USA petrodollar at a time when we are at our most vulnerable (everything bubble, coronvirus, and now oil price war).

The Fed's only possible response (and I mean "only possible", the Fed literally doesn't have any other mode of action in its arsenal) is to pump even more debt into the economy. And while the government (Trump) has a lot more modes of action, it won't take them because Trump is unwilling or incapable of perceiving anything other than throwing more dollars into the bonfire.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

That's true - and Saudi Arabia - or for THUGGER, Saudia Araba - is helping! With with both hands and both feet!

I'd need to think about it but aside from collapsing the US and making it a weak player in the international arena, at the moment I don't see it collapsing the City of London.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:37 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 2:48 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


It looks like still no progress.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/science/coronavirus-treatment.html

There is no antiviral drug proven to be effective against the virus.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 4:16 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So I was just looking at some figures to try and see where things are. I took current data from the WorldOMeter and selected only those countries with more than 5,000 cases. I calculated the percent increase in the last 24 hours.

The numbers are:

USA 26
Fran 17
S. K. 01
Germ 29
Spai 18
Iran 8
Ital 13
Chin 00

China and SK have obviously stopped rampant spread.

I also calculated case fatality ratio as percent. The numbers are

USA 1.7
Fran 2.3
S. K. 1.0
Germ 0.3
Spai 4.5
Iran 6.1
Ital 7.9
Chin 4.0

SK, with the widest available testing and first-world health system is I think the optimum result to expect. And with numbers somewhat stabilized, instead of rapidly changing timelines chasing each other, this seems a reasonably good figure. Germany with a 0.3 is I think a result of a rapidly expanding number of new cases. Infected people haven't had a chance to die yet and catch up to the number of new cases. But we'll see how the numbers develop over time.



NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 5:13 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.



Quote:

White House Takes New Line After Dire Report on Death Toll

Federal guidelines warned against gatherings of more than 10 people as a London report predicted high fatalities in the U.S. without drastic action.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

That is because different steps, intended to drive down transmission by isolating patients, quarantining those in contact with them and keeping the most vulnerable apart from others for three months, could only cut the predicted death toll by half, the new report said.

The White House guidelines urged Americans to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people. That is a more restrictive stance than recommendations released on Sunday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which said that gatherings should be limited to 50.

The White House also recommended that Americans work from home, avoid unnecessary shopping trips and refrain from eating in restaurants. Some states and cities have already imposed stricter measures, including lockdowns and business closings.

Asked at a news conference with President Trump about what had led to the change in thinking by a White House task force, Dr. Deborah Birx, one of the task force leaders, said new information had come from a model developed in Britain.

“What had the biggest impact in the model is social distancing, small groups, not going in public in large groups,” Dr. Birx said. “The most important thing was if one person in the household became infected, the whole household self-quarantined for 14 days. Because that stops 100 percent of the transmission outside of the household.”

Dr. Birx’s description of the findings was consistent with those in the report, released on Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London. The lead author of the study, Neil Ferguson, an epidemiology professor, said in an interview that his group had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend.

The group has also shared its fatality estimates with the C.D.C., Dr. Ferguson said, including that eight to nine percent of people in the most vulnerable age group, 80 and older, could die if infected.

Get an informed guide to the global outbreak with our daily coronavirus newsletter.

“We don’t have a clear exit strategy,” Dr. Ferguson said of the recommended measures. “We’re going to have to suppress this virus — frankly, indefinitely — until we have a vaccine.”

“It’s a difficult position for the world to be in,” he added.

The report, which was not released in a peer-reviewed journal but was authored by 30 scientists on behalf of Imperial College’s coronavirus response team, simulated the role of public health measures aimed at reducing contact.

“The effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission,” the authors wrote.

Dr. Ferguson said the potential health impacts were comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak, and would “kind of overwhelm health system capacity in any developed country, including the United States,” unless measures to reduce the spread of the virus were taken.

The White House task force did not respond to requests for comment. Officials stressed that the federal government’s restrictive new guidelines would be re-evaluated after 15 days, although they hinted that they were likely to be extended.

The study’s authors said their research made it clear that people in the United States might be advised to continue with draconian restrictions on their daily lives for far longer than Mr. Trump and the task force indicated on Monday.

“The major challenge of suppression,” the British scientists concluded, is the length of time that intensive interventions would be needed, given that “we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.”

The authors said that so-called mitigation policies alone — isolating people suspected of having the virus at home, quarantining their contacts and separating the most vulnerable people from others — might reduce the peak demand on the health care system by two-thirds and deaths by half if applied for three months. But that would still result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and in health systems “overwhelmed many times over,” they said.

This was why the authors also recommended measures to distance the entire population, such as school closures. Those interventions, they suggested, could be “relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows" and then reintroduced if new infections began growing.

The researchers said that the long-term “social and economic effects” were likely to be “profound,” and that the measures were not guaranteed to succeed and could themselves have “significant impact on health and well-being.”

“No public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time,” they added. “How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.”



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 5:19 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 5:20 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Here’s the Punch-in-the-Gut Version of the Imperial College Coronavirus Study

www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/heres-the-punch-in-the-gut-vers
ion-of-the-imperial-college-coronavirus-study
/

It strikes me that it might be useful to summarize the Imperial College team’s estimate of likely coronavirus deaths. They provide mortality estimates for two scenarios: doing nothing and doing quite a large amount. What we’re doing right now is somewhere between those two, so I’ve filled it in with an interpolation. The team also provides a range of estimates for massive efforts that are strictly enforced for over a year. Here’s roughly how it pencils out:

Total US Deaths / Amount of Effort
#1) 2.2 million / Nothing
#2) 1.5 million? / What we're doing now (modest mitigation)
#3) 1.1 million / A lot more (serious mitigation)
#4) 200 thousand? / A massive amount for a long time (suppression)

The kinds of things the IC team recommends are nowhere near being implemented yet, and to have a serious effect they need to put in place soon. Given where we are now, this means that the only realistic options are #2 and #3. In other words, it’s likely that the US will see 1.1-1.5 million deaths from the coronavirus, with more than half of them coming by June.

Now, this is just one estimate. The Imperial College team used an existing microsimulation model that was created about ten years ago and then plugged in lots of guesses and estimates: what measures would be taken; how many families would comply; average class sizes; commuting distances; incubation periods; etc. Some of these are things we have a pretty good handle on, while others are a lot trickier to estimate. Some of them produce only small changes if you get them wrong, while others are pretty sensitive. So in that sense, take this with a grain of salt.

That said, this appears to be the most sophisticated estimate we have at the moment. It might be wrong, but at this point it would be foolish to simply assume so.

Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team - 16 March 2020
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellow
ships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 5:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:



So I was just looking at some figures to try and see where things are. I took current data from the WorldOMeter and selected only those countries with more than 5,000 cases. I calculated the percent increase in the last 24 hours.

The numbers are:

USA 26
Fran 17
S. K. 01
Germ 29
Spai 18
Iran 8
Ital 13
Chin 00

China and SK have obviously stopped rampant spread.

I also calculated case fatality ratio as percent. The numbers are

USA 1.7
Fran 2.3
S. K. 1.0
Germ 0.3
Spai 4.5
Iran 6.1
Ital 7.9
Chin 4.0

SK, with the widest available testing and first-world health system is I think the optimum result to expect. And with numbers somewhat stabilized, instead of rapidly changing timelines chasing each other, this seems a reasonably good figure. Germany with a 0.3 is I think a result of a rapidly expanding number of new cases. Infected people haven't had a chance to die yet and catch up to the number of new cases. But we'll see how the numbers develop over time.



I thought I'd throw this in as well. What could be giving SK its low case fatality rate is a number of factors besides lots and lots of testing (which in and of itself changes the numbers), and early action which kept hospitals from being overwhelmed is - In SK it primarily infected adult female non-smokers, who typically fare much better than other people in other categories.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/opinions/south-korea-italy-coronavi
rus-survivability-sepkowitz/index.html



NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 6:00 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Glad that you're recording the numbers, KIKI. It helps to put things in perspective ... where have we been? Where are we now? Where will we be a month from now?

It's SO frustrating thet testing is STILL not widely available! How can you take appropriate action if you don't know where you are? Whoever was responsible for the testing clusterfuck ... and there are probably several people responsible ... should lose their jobs.


Quote:

More National Guard Troops Deployed In Geogia Than People Who've Tested Positive For Covid-19

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/more-national-guard-troops-deployed-g
eogia-people-whove-tested-positive-covid-19


Panic? Or prudence?

How can you tell without DATA???

Now, my guess is "panic" bc Georgia isn't exactly a hotspot for foreign travellers, but without the DATA, who can tell?


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 8:27 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Darn. I should have kept track of how MANY times people have promised more testing kits - for sure this time! - and have the promise fizzle.

Well, here's one for the end of this week. For sure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088669/Vulnerable-Americans-
need-avoid-crowds-U-S-health-official-warns.html


Tuesday, Mar 17th 2020

Top coronavirus expert Dr Fauci says four million tests should be available by end of week

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 9:43 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Darn. I should have kept track of how MANY times people have promised more testing kits - for sure this time! - and have the promise fizzle.

Well, here's one for the end of this week. For sure.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088669/Vulnerable-Americans-
need-avoid-crowds-U-S-health-official-warns.html


Tuesday, Mar 17th 2020

Top coronavirus expert Dr Fauci says four million tests should be available by end of week

What we SHOULD have done is set up a betting pool: when will test kits be available?

I say... by end of next week they will have been distributed to labs.

Well, we missed that oppty but how about we set up a couple more, just to keep things interesting?

When will confirmed USA cases reach 10,000? When will USA cases reach 20,000?

When will the CDC (those fuckers) change their criteria for testing?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 9:45 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I giggled. I laughed. I snorted. I'm still chuckling.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:03 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


50M ppl in SK // .25M tested => ~0.5% ppl tested

https://news.yahoo.com/u-needs-today-south-korea-173919494.html

330M ppl in US @ ~0.5% ppl tested => 1.65M tested

But not every test is used for patient testing. The CDC may go back to requiring each swab be tested separately instead of together. That reduces 4M test kits down to 2M. And then every test batch is run with blanks and controls. By experience, roughly 35% of every run is QC. That runs it down to 1.3M ppl. Even with 4M kits, should such a bounty ever come true, we'd fall 350,000 short of the SK example.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Tuesday, March 17, 2020 10:58 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


The Infuriating Story of How the Government Stalled Coronavirus Testing

www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis

How one young doctor at a Seattle lab tried to get out in front of the coronavirus crisis by inventing his own test. And why the absurdity of his struggle should make us all afraid.

Alex Greninger was watching it all from the start. An epidemiologist and expert in laboratory medicine, Greninger spent the first few weeks of the year paying close attention to China, where a new SARS-like virus was burning through the city of Wuhan at an alarming rate. He watched as Chinese officials struggled to contain the virus, locking down the giant city of 11 million people, going door-to-door to test its citizens. He watched as the virus evaded their grasp. More than most people, Greninger could guess at what was coming for America. And more than most people, he was in a position to do something about it.

The key to getting an outbreak like the current one under control, say medical professionals, is implementing proper testing protocols. Testing for the virus allows doctors to pinpoint and isolate those who are carrying the virus and prevent them from spreading it. Aggressive testing allowed China, eventually, to get the outbreak in Wuhan under control and bring the number of new infections down dramatically. It’s been central to the strategy that Singapore and South Korea have used, too: test and isolate. And yet, two months since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in the U.S., tests for the novel coronavirus are still exceedingly hard to find.

How did the U.S. fumble its response to the coronavirus so colossally, even with so much lead time? Why, with the number of diagnosed COVID cases in the U.S. climbing toward 4,000, do we still not have nearly enough tests?

A large part of the blame lies with President Trump, who has not wanted widespread testing, apparently out of an obsession with keeping the number of confirmed COVID cases low. It’s why he waffled so long on whether to let the Grand Princess cruise liner, where COVID infections were spreading rapidly, dock in the United States. “I would rather have them stay on [the ship], personally,” Trump said earlier this month. “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.” His administration turned down tests provided by the World Health Organization and instead wasted precious time having the Centers for Disease Control create its own test. While that was underway, the president denounced the spread of the disease as a Democratic hoax, giving the public a dangerously false sense of complacency just as a pandemic was getting underway.

In the meantime, a more prosaic and bureaucratic tangle of frustrations ensnared those on the front lines of the fight—those like Dr. Greninger, whose struggles offer a window into how the rollout of testing has been bungled, and why the situation isn’t likely to improve any time soon.

More at www.gq.com/story/inside-americas-coronavirus-testing-crisis

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 4:07 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Just rough-sketching how the numbers are zooming up in the USA .... JSF, you really should chart that, it's eye-opening ....

I place my marker on the USA hitting 10,000 in four days. March 21. (Actually, my chart says in two days, but even I can't believe it's expanding that fast. I should plug the numbers into an exponential regression-line calculation and see what a more accurate estimate gets me.)

I can't imagine when we reach 20,000 ... a few days after 10,000? March 25?

When will the CDC change the criteria for testing? When hell freezes over. (My calendar doesn't go out that far)


Well, good, bad, or indifferent, I've put my markers down. Let's see how good I was at sketching this out.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 4:18 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I think it would be interesting to have data from TWO types of tests ... serology tests, which look for the presence of circulating antibodies in the blood. Since antibodies persist for months (for MERS, a coronavirus, that's 34 months) it should be possible to test for the number of people who had COVID-19 at one time or another, even asymptomatically. It should reveal the true infection rate, which would help calculate the true Rnaught and well as the true case fatality rate.

The other test- for the virus itself- should reveal who is actively infected.

Is that about right, KIKI?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 7:42 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


The coronavirus curve versus the social trust curve

Lethality rates reflect variables that are hard to measure and model: our willingness to trust in and to sacrifice for each other.

To see why, run some numbers. Adam Kucharski, an expert on the mathematics of contagion, calculates that if each Covid-19 case leads to 2.5 more infections over five days, then a single case leads to 244 more cases over the course of a month. But if social distancing measures hold that to 1.25 new infections for every case, that’s only four new cases over the course of a month — which also means the cases that do emerge will be less lethal because health systems won’t be as overwhelmed.

Let’s play this out. As of Monday afternoon, there were 4,115 confirmed cases in the US, though testing failures ensure the true number is much higher. Still, let’s use 4,115 as a base. If you keep the assumption that each case creates 2.5 more cases over 5 days, then after 30 days we’ll have 7,564,000 cases. With a 1 percent death rate, that means more than 75,000 deaths — the equivalent of 25 9/11s — in 30 days.

But if social behavior cuts the replication rate to 1.25 and — due to higher health system capacity and more effective quarantining of the elderly — the case fatality rate to 0.5 percent, then after 30 days there will only be a bit more than 533,000 cases and 2,665 deaths. That loss of life would remain tragic, but more than 72,000 lives would be saved.

Here’s the catch: These measures are far more effective if implemented, well, now. “One of the particularly tough things about this infection is you get this delay of about a month between exposure and death,” Kucharski told me. “By the time people are taking it seriously, even if you stop transmission completely, you still likely have another three or four weeks of hospitals filling up.” In other words, you need to stop the disease before the health system is visibly overwhelmed, not after.

But implementing radical and rapid social distancing before the crisis is undeniable requires two resources in short supply: social trust and social solidarity.

More at www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/3/17/21180645/covid-19-coronaviru
s-social-solidarity-epidemic-pandemic-paid-leave-health-care


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:46 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:50 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I think it would be interesting to have data from TWO types of tests ... serology tests, which look for the presence of circulating antibodies in the blood. Since antibodies persist for months (for MERS, a coronavirus, that's 34 months) it should be possible to test for the number of people who had COVID-19 at one time or another, even asymptomatically. It should reveal the true infection rate, which would help calculate the true Rnaught and well as the true case fatality rate.

The other test- for the virus itself- should reveal who is actively infected.

Is that about right, KIKI?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

Yes.

At the time this started, the CDC said they were also working on a serology test - a test for antibodies in the blood. Since then, there's been no word on how that's working out.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 1:54 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 2:20 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


As of March 18, 2020 +1955 from previous day
7678
As of March 17, 2020 +1471 from previous day
5723
As of March 16, 2020 +1169 from previous day
4252
As of March 15, 2020 +584 from previous day
3083
As of March 14, 2020 +667 from previous day
2499
As of March 13, 2020 +420 from previous day
1832
As of March 12, 2020 +397 from previous day
1412
As of March 11, 2020 +228 from previous day
1015
As of March 10, 2020 +221 from previous day
787
As of March 09, 2020 +102 from previous day
566
As of March 08, 2020 +91 from previous day
464
As of March 07, 2020 beginning posting
373

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 2:27 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 2:30 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Just rough-sketching how the numbers are zooming up in the USA .... JSF, you really should chart that, it's eye-opening ....

I place my marker on the USA hitting 10,000 in four days. March 21. (Actually, my chart says in two days, but even I can't believe it's expanding that fast. I should plug the numbers into an exponential regression-line calculation and see what a more accurate estimate gets me.)

I can't imagine when we reach 20,000 ... a few days after 10,000? March 25?

When will the CDC change the criteria for testing? When hell freezes over. (My calendar doesn't go out that far)


Well, good, bad, or indifferent, I've put my markers down. Let's see how good I was at sketching this out.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!


I'll say 10,000 in 2, due to not enuf kits. Otherwise it'd be 10,000 in 1.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 3:29 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Information for Signy

Coronavirus has 8 million Californians under shelter-in-place orders


By Rong-Gong Lin II, Colleen Shalby, Howard Blume, Hannah Fry
March 18, 2020
10:24 AM

With coronavirus cases spreading rapidly and reaching all 50 states, more than 8 million Californians are living under shelter-in-place orders as Gov. Gavin Newsom said he doubted schools would reopen for the remainder of the academic year.

The extraordinary measures were designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. California has seen the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continue to rise: 472 confirmed cases and 13 deaths as of Tuesday, compared to 157 confirmed cases and three deaths the week prior. The jump in numbers is largely due to a recent increase in testing capacity.

Officials said they are racing to get more coronavirus testing done so they have a better sense of how many people have the virus — but that effort remains painfully slow.

In the meantime, they are pushing people to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus and avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.

Extraordinary measures

At least 10 counties in the Bay Area and Central California and the city of Palm Springs have directed all residents to stay at home as much as possible, with Sonoma, San Benito and Monterey counties deciding Tuesday to join the order implemented a day earlier by San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and Santa Cruz counties. In Ventura County, health officials Tuesday announced a shelter-in-place order that applied only to older residents.

In total, about 20% of the state’s population is under shelter-in-place orders.

Southern California authorities stopped short of shelter-in-place orders, but still imposed sweeping restrictions. Orange and San Bernardino counties issued new orders Tuesday that ban all gatherings, a day after Riverside County banned gatherings of 10 or more people and L.A. County prohibited gatherings of 50 or more people. San Diego County issued a ban Tuesday prohibiting gatherings of 50 or more people.

Besides the 10 counties imposing a shelter-in-place order, enforceable as a misdemeanor, Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura and San Diego counties ordered restaurants to end dine-in eating and required them to offer only pickup and delivery service.

Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Ventura and San Diego counties ordered bars that do not serve food to close; Ventura, San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties also ordered gyms and movie theaters to close.

Church officials throughout the suspend mass. Following decisions from the Los Angeles Archdiocese and San Jose Diocese, the Diocese of San Bernardino announced Tuesday night that it would do the same, suspending services at all parishes, missions, chapels and hospitals.


Schools

Newsom confirmed Tuesday that California public schools are likely to be closed for the remainder of the school year in response to the coronavirus.

“Don’t anticipate schools are going to open up in a week. Please don’t anticipate in a few weeks,” Newsom said during a Sacramento news conference on the state’s coronavirus efforts. “I would plan, and assume, that it’s unlikely that many of these schools — few, if any — will open before the summer break.”

Nearly all school districts in the state, 98.8%, are closed in response to the pandemic, Newsom said. The state education department is assembling detailed guidelines on how schools can attempt to continue teaching 6.1 million students out of their classrooms in the weeks and months ahead.

California schools are all but shut down — a hardship for children and families in a state where 60% of students qualify for free or reduced-price meals because they are members of low-income households. In Los Angeles public schools the number is even higher, at 80%; in Compton it’s at 83%; Pomona, 89%.

State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond said Tuesday night that Newsom’s comment offers an assessment of the future school year with closed campuses, but as of now “there is no declaration that school is over for the year.” He said school districts need to be fully prepared to shift their method of instruction.

He added that officials have not yet discussed the potential option of extending the school year into the summer.

“We’re not going to know exactly what we need to do until we have a sense of how this is all going to go,” Thurmond said.

On Wednesday, Thurmond will lead a statewide call for school district leaders to examine the state’s new guidelines on how to operate, including online learning and meal distribution.

Newsom acknowledged the challenging road ahead and said that standardized testing will not take place this spring. “We think it is totally inappropriate for kids to worry” about being tested, he said. Teachers and students “already have enough anxiety,” he said.

Universities across the state have moved to online learning, and some are grappling with ways to calm their campus communities after students and staff members have tested positive for the virus.

UCLA officials confirmed Tuesday that a student who lives off-campus tested positive for COVID-19 and is receiving care at a local hospital. A university staff member has also tested positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus. UCLA Chancellor Gene D. Block, who was in contact with someone who has the virus, has self-quarantined but is not showing symptoms.

“As testing for COVID-19 in the United States becomes more widely available, we will see local health centers administer more tests. As a result, we should prepare ourselves to expect the number of self-quarantine cases, like mine, and confirmed cases to increase in the weeks and months ahead — not only across the nation, but also at UCLA,” Block wrote in a news release.
Economic toll

The Los Angeles City Council pushed forward dozens of proposals Tuesday meant to help Angelenos cope with the spread of the coronavirus and protect them from its effects, including plans to boost sick leave, enshrine recall rights for workers who are laid off and provide financial assistance to struggling businesses and tenants.

“This pandemic has touched every corner of the world, and it is increasing at a global scale like we’ve never seen before,” City Council President Nury Martinez said at the beginning of a marathon meeting that lasted into the early evening. “We are in uncharted waters, and it is up to us to make sure we are doing our duty as public servants.”

Martinez asked city staffers to report back on creating an emergency program that would provide at least 14 days of paid sick leave to Angelenos during a public health crisis or major disaster. Los Angeles already requires sick leave for employees working in the city, ensuring that they can accrue and use up to 48 hours of paid leave — six days — per year.

Council members also introduced new proposals to set up loans and grants for businesses affected by the pandemic and to explore other business assistance such as easing taxes and fees. Early in the meeting, restaurant owner Tricia La Belle addressed the council and said that the shutdown of dine-in service had put her in financial jeopardy.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-18/coronavirus-has-8-
million-californians-under-shelter-in-place-orders

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Wednesday, March 18, 2020 11:12 PM

BRENDA


Officially the US-Canadian border is closed to all but essential traffic. Flow of trade goods to keep moving.

More cases of Covid-19 in BC but that is because of over 17,000 tests having been done.

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Hubby just called up a former colleague to see how things were going. Colleague told him about a professor who had cough who was still holding classes and meetings even tho their maid had tested positive. Now colleague himself feels sick and is self-isolating at home.

There is a very interesting interview by Rachel Madcow (of all people) of an American health reporter who was stuck in China during the crisis, and they had an interesting procedure worked out. They hand noticed that most (80%) transmission occurred within the family, so when someone had symptoms they were whisked away to a special clinic ... not a regular hospital or doctor's office ... for testing and isolation, if necessary. Not allowed to go back home. Anyway, let the interviewee tell you about it.





-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 3:36 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Oh yeah!

We're a mere ~550 cases away from the 10,000 challenge! Neither of us was right!

You said "10,000 in four days. March 21". On the 18th I said in 2 days - or March 20. But it looks like it'll be March 19.



OK - new challenge!

I predict 20,000 in 3 days from now - March 21 - but really short days! Like /just after midnight on March 21/ days.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 5:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


There's probably a million people with it in the States. Maybe ten. Twenty?

They've tested 41k as of yesterday. By the time they put a dent in testing, half the people they test will have already gotten over it and not even known they had it.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:34 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted coronavirus

The Guardian reports:

The small town of Vò, in northern Italy, where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country, has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19.

A scientific study, rolled out by the University of Padua, with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross, consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town, including asymptomatic people. The goal was to study the natural history of the virus, the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk.

The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people.

When the study began, on 6 March, there were at least 90 infected in Vò. For days now, there have been no new cases.

“We were able to contain the outbreak here, because we identified and eliminated the ‘submerged’ infections and isolated them,” Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London, who took part in the Vò project, told the Financial Times. “That is what makes the difference.”

The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. “If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants.

More at www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-ita
lian-town-have-halted-covid-19


Scientists find that up to 86 percent of coronavirus infections go undetected

GeekWire reports:

Computer modeling of the coronavirus outbreak’s course in China, in the weeks before a travel shutdown was imposed on Jan. 23, suggest that 86% of the infections went undocumented.

Those undocumented infections were about half as contagious as the documented cases, but were the source of two-thirds of the documented cases, according to a study published online today by the journal Science.

The findings parallel other research into the role of what’s known as stealth or cryptic transmission in spreading the potentially deadly virus. They also underscore the importance of widespread testing, even if patients aren’t experiencing serious symptoms, particularly during the early phases of transmission.

“More active testing procedures would catch more cases,” Columbia University’s Jeffrey Shaman, a co-author of the study, told reporters today. “How that would be implemented is something that we can debate for quite some time. And obviously this all has to be done under the backdrop of the logistics and costs of implementing lots more tests.”

Shaman and his colleagues tracked reports of infections in China from Jan. 10 to 23, and from Jan. 24 to Feb. 8, and fed those reports along with data about population mobility into their computer model.

When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.

Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.

More at www.geekwire.com/2020/scientists-find-86-percent-coronavirus-infection
s-go-unreported
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 9:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.



My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.

Quote:

Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.



And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 10:22 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.

And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

You sound like Trump congratulating himself constantly, but Trump did not draw the obvious conclusion back in January: get as many tests per million people as S Korea has, for one country's example, even if Trump has to buy from S Korea the test kits and import the technicians to run the tests. In January, February, and March, until 3 days ago, he was saying his endless bullshit and lies about there was no pandemic to promote his reelection.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:41 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:


ARTICLE: When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.

SIX: My post history shows that I suspected that long before they did then.

ARTICLE: Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.

SIX: And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)



Big fucking deal. I was posting about that all the way back at the beginning of this thread about the difficulty of calculating the case fatality rate without knowing the true rate of infection. Specifically, in the case of Wuhan, where test kits were initially in short supply and reserved for the more extreme cases for hospital admission, which would weight the case fatality rate high. I JUST posted about that again when thinking about a the utility of a serology test, which would reveal the true infection rate, not just the active infections.

Jeez, SIX, why don't you bother to read and comprehend what other people have posted?

BTW, that still doesn't take away from the fact that hospitals in China and Italy (and soon to be all of the EU and the UK, and probably the USA) will be overwhelmed with the sick and dying, forcing doctors to decide who should be treated and live, and who should be left to struggle on their own and most likely die. This is NOT a cold. This is NOT the flu. Colds and flus DON'T cause an overwhelming ... repeat, overwhelming ... surge in hospitalizations and deaths.



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:45 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

And according to this article, I was correct.

Do Right, Be Right. :)


It's awfully lame taking a victory lap when you're in 24th place.

I was carping about it while you were still trying to tell everyone it was no big deal and that I shouldn't be posting about it.

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I dunno.

I always said it wasn't a big deal.

Tests are coming out proving me right.

Big nothing burger.

Wowie!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:59 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


On Friday the 13th, 2020, Trump declared SARS-COV-2 a national emergency.

On March 15, 2020, the CDC came out with recommendations, including gatherings of no more than 50 people.

On March 16, 2020, after a study out of England indicated millions infected, Trump told people to limit gatherings to no more than 10 people.

A number of states (with a significant numbers of cases) have already shuttered schools, closed bars, etc; while states without cases have been reluctant to follow suit.

The questions to me - are will these non-specific, fragmentary, and contradictory attempts to limit the coronavirus slow the spread; and will we be able to discern it if testing is increased. So I'll eyeball data as it comes out, though I don't expect to see a result for about 14 days.

However, one figure's accuracy will definitely improve with time especially as/(if) the number of new cases levels out, and that's case fatality ratio.




NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:03 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I dunno.
I always said it wasn't a big deal.
Tests are coming out proving me right.
Big nothing burger.
Wowie!

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Tell that to the people of China and Italy, and soon to the entire EU and the UK who are dying in droves. Tht's not "no big deal", unless you have your head stuck up your ass and refuse to cogitate reality.

Here, since you seem to like outube so much



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

Happy New Year, WISHY. I edited out your psychopathic screed!

NOTIFY: Y   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:05 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


see latest post for most recent figures

NOTIFY: N   |  REPLY  |  REPLY WITH QUOTE  |  TOP  |  HOME  

YOUR OPTIONS

NEW POSTS TODAY

USERPOST DATE

OTHER TOPICS

DISCUSSIONS
Long hot summer ... of riots
Tue, June 2, 2020 09:11 - 44 posts
Number 1 Cause of Deaths? The US had 1,970 coronavirus deaths in last 24 hours, making it (as of today) the #1 cause of death in the USA
Tue, June 2, 2020 08:23 - 20 posts
Elections 2020
Tue, June 2, 2020 08:19 - 577 posts
A thread for Democrats Only
Tue, June 2, 2020 05:48 - 3447 posts
In the garden, and RAIN!!!!
Tue, June 2, 2020 04:48 - 4612 posts
Just what IS the point?
Tue, June 2, 2020 02:47 - 3 posts
Thoughts for Nova Scotia
Mon, June 1, 2020 23:52 - 8 posts
new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China
Mon, June 1, 2020 18:10 - 1686 posts
Some Covid-19 thoughts
Mon, June 1, 2020 14:11 - 702 posts
The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
Mon, June 1, 2020 14:09 - 5 posts
Buildings are ablaze a mere block from the WH. Fire breaks out near Hay Adams Hotel. National Guard Called up
Mon, June 1, 2020 14:08 - 5 posts
You can't take the sky from me, a tribute to Firefly
Mon, June 1, 2020 09:42 - 244 posts

FFF.NET SOCIAL