REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

new deadly human-to-human-transmissible coronavirus emerges out of China

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Monday, July 6, 2020 19:01
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 28787
PAGE 27 of 38

Saturday, April 18, 2020 6:53 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

6IXSTRINGJACK:
I agree. All of that is funny, despite it being true.
Which part made you laugh, Karen?

SIGNY: SIXSTRINGSHIT- why don't you just call KIKI a "Russian troll" and turn into a GSTRING?
#WEARAMASK

SIX: Too late. I already did.
She should probably stop spouting fear mongering propaganda that is enabling a shift of our government toward Communism.



First of all, I happen to think her numbers are correct. Certainly better than yours!
Secondly, if we're veering towards anything it would be fascism. But, hey, I've been calling THAT for years! *America is an oligarchy*, remember?

So given that the death rate is going to be high if we don't do anything, what do we do to stop the virus WITHOUT falling into out-and-out fascism?

Well, how about ...#WEARAMASK? You could go back to work, you wouldn't have to wait for ...and pay for ... a vaccine or treatment and give big pharma/ hospital corporations even more control of your life and paycheck than they already do. It's not even like you have to wait for "someone" to make a mask for you! You can make one yourself! Government and monopoly control over the economy would be rolled back.

How about #STOPTAKINGONDEBT? I know I'm preaching to the choir, SIX, but we've got to stop giving the banks, and The Fed, such leverage over our economy!

Jeez, just how about more people being rational adult human beings and taking rational steps to protect their own lives and finances, instead of being babies who're waiting for big daddy government or scientists or "somebody" to step in and helpthem, or (oppositely) being so deep in denial that they're willing to throw themselves onto the bonfire?



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 8:23 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus
-vaccine-ian-frazer/12144260


Will we have a vaccine?

Norman Swan: So, everyone is hanging out for a vaccine, and lots of research groups around the world are having a go. The Australian with the most success in vaccine development is Professor Ian Frazer. The virus was the human papilloma virus which causes cervical cancer, and the immunisation took years of work. Ian is still active in vaccine development. Ian, welcome back to the Health Report.

Ian Frazer: Norman, it's good to speak with you.

Norman Swan: What's the challenge here?

Ian Frazer: The challenge is the coronavirus, let's face it, we have a lot of people who are working to develop vaccines against this particular coronavirus, but we haven't had much success with coronavirus vaccines in the past, and that's partly because it seems to be a difficult virus to get a successful and safe vaccine against, and partly because the virus infects a bit of us which our immune system doesn't really do very well at protecting.

Norman Swan: Meaning the upper respiratory tract, the nose and throat.

Ian Frazer: Indeed. I mean, it's a separate immune system, if you like, of its own, which isn't easily accessible by vaccine technology.

Norman Swan: So just explain why not. Because there is a blood supply, we've got white blood cells, why is there this problem with the upper respiratory tract? And it's true of influenza as well, we've got a pretty lousy vaccine for influenza, it's the best we've got but…

Ian Frazer: We want to get a vaccine that stops the cells getting infected, and that really means that you've got to have something that can neutralise the virus outside of the body because effectively our upper airway is outside of the body.

Norman Swan: This is mind-bending but really it feels as if it's inside but in fact it's an external surface, even though it might be surrounded by your nose and throat.

Ian Frazer: Yes, it's a bit like your skin, you know, it's trying to get a vaccine to kill a virus on the surface of your skin. We do have of course the ability to put some antibody in there and we have a local immune system in our lungs which makes the right sort of antibody, but that doesn't connect quite as well as it should do with the systemic immune system that would respond to a vaccine. And one of the problems with corona vaccines in the past has been that when that immune response does cross across to where the virus infected cells are it actually increases the pathology rather than reducing it, so that immunisation with SARS corona vaccine caused, in animals, inflammation in the lungs which wouldn't otherwise have been there if the vaccine hadn't been given.

Norman Swan: Because you're trying to get the virus once it's in. This virus mutates, in fact they've been able to track the virus through the world and where it came from by its mutations. It is the mutation rate changing its coat enough to confuse a vaccine?

Ian Frazer: I don't think so. The total number of mutations to date has been quite small, it seems to be very small point mutations in the genetic information, and from what we've seen so far over the course of basically now four or five months of keeping track of this virus, nothing has changed enough that it would prevent the immune system having a go. We still have to identify what the best target in the virus is. It seems likely that it would be some part of the spike protein, which is the bit that allows the virus to stick to cells. But there hasn't been enough change there yet to prevent a vaccine that worked against the first version of this virus, now coping with the minor changes that have occurred.

Norman Swan: What's the story with antibodies to this coronavirus with SARS-CoV-2? Every day goes by and you seem to get a different story. Some people get a strong antibody response, some people get a weak antibody response, there's a story of do people get reinfected, how long does immunity last. And that's critical to whether or not a vaccine is going to work, is it not?

Ian Frazer: Indeed, and for data on that we really have to go back to when people were doing research on the coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and at that time there was quite a lot of work done on how long antibody responses lasted after infection. And yes, you get antibody after an actual infection, and yes, it lasts for a while, but it's not lifelong by any stretch of the imagination, sort of months rather than years, and of course we don't know what would happen with a vaccine in terms of longevity of immune response. We've got to first of all find a vaccine that will work and then we can see how long it's going to work for. But I think it would be fair to say that the natural immunity that you get after infection from this coronavirus is probably going to turn out like the coronaviruses we've seen in the past. Yes, there will be some natural protection over a period of months, maybe even years, but it won't be lifelong. On the other hand, the good news is that if you get reinfected with the virus a second time some months down the track, probably there will be enough immunity there to stop you becoming seriously ill.

Norman Swan: There's about 70 different technologies being deployed from using the virus like you would in influenza or you'd kill it and try and put it in, there's putting it in little parcels of messenger RNA to tell the cell to produce antibodies, really clever stuff. And in the University of Queensland they are clamping the molecule and trying to get an antibody response to that, and they are trying to get very specific…what I understand is there is a 90% attrition rate in vaccine development, so 90% of these are likely to fail. I mean, where's the smart money on the vaccine development at the moment?

Ian Frazer: Well, the smart money has to be on something which will produce a strong antibody response, and the best way we know to do that is protein plus adjuvant and that would probably…

Norman Swan: So to translate that, that means a significant part of the virus attached to a chemical which induces an immune response.

Ian Frazer: That's exactly right, and that has been successful in animal models for coronaviruses in the past and that is of course where the money is being put I suspect in large measure at the moment. I mean, another sort of vaccine would be just antibody transferred from somebody who had been infected already and had got rid of the infection. It's not strictly a vaccine but it would be an immunological means of preventing infection. That would probably be something that would be more quickly developed than an actual vaccine.

Norman Swan: Some people argue that that's a dirty vaccine that you've just described, and that's why you got the problem with SARS in 2003 when they reinfected the monkeys and they got this strong and nasty immune response, and that's why they're going for targeted very specific antibody responses.

Ian Frazer: Well, that's probably correct. We don't know exactly which bit of the virus would best protect us if we got an immune response against it, but even with the SARS vaccines there was pulmonary immunopathology, in other words the lungs got inflamed after vaccination with some of the virus-like particle-based vaccines that were also tried for this SARS infection. So it's not just dirty antibody, if we pick the wrong antigen for a vaccine where we are making a defined vaccine, a controlled vaccine, if we pick the wrong antigen we may get the same problem.

Norman Swan: Ian Frazer, you're not painting an optimistic picture of a vaccine in 12 to 18 months.

Ian Frazer: Well, the good news is, as you've pointed out, that there are at least 80 known vaccine experiments going on at the moment, including five that are in human trials, so that we've got the best possible chance of getting something. I guess the slightly less good news is that the reason we are doing all these different methods is because there isn't an obvious winner. And I think it would be fair to say that because of the safety issue, and the safety issue is a real one, even if we get something which looked quite encouraging in animals, the safety trials in humans will have to be fairly extensive before we would think about vaccinating a group of people who have not yet been exposed to the virus and therefore might hope to get protection but certainly wouldn't be keen to accept a possibility of really serious side effects if they actually caught the virus.

Norman Swan: Ian Frazer, thanks for joining us.

Ian Frazer: Thank you Norman.

Norman Swan: Professor Ian Frazer is at the University of Queensland.

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 8:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

First of all, I happen to think her numbers are correct. Certainly better than yours!



Bullshit.

She doesn't just get to add the "a factor of x60 may be applicable" to all of her bullshit numbers she's been posting since the beginning as a get out of jail free card for all of the extremely erroneous numbers she's been touting as fact.

x60 is MUCH closer to the numbers I've been predicting since the beginning, and would only be my very conservative estimate.




And you say "ALL of mine"?

Do you argue the numbers I've been throwing out for daily US and world death rates as well as the daily birth rates for the US and the world? Because I assure you they're a matter of fact and they come nowhere near even leveling off our overpopulation problem even in your worst case scenarios of the Coomph. (Which, BTW, are looking less and less likely by the second. Which subsequently mean that mine are looking more and more accurate).

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 8:32 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Too late. I already did.

She should probably stop spouting fear mongering propaganda that is enabling a shift of our government toward Communism.

She only believes the numbers that show worst case scenario and throws out any that destroys her agenda.

I had no idea that I was friendly with hostile agent Karen this whole time.



Second praises Communist tactics because he's an idiot and probably isn't even aware that he's doing it. Karen is not an idiot.

GString might have been right about her all this time.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6ix, what you are doing is called Red-baiting. Republicans have been doing it since before your parents were born: "As the Cold War heated up in the years following World War II, liberal political candidates were frequently accused of being either Communists or at the very least sympathetic to the Communist Party." - www.jstor.org/stable/43264751?seq=1

Trump's lawyer, Roy Cohn, was a famous Red-baiting Republican who worked with the ultimate Red-baiting Republican, Senator Joe McCarthy. Red-baiting is in the DNA of Republicans. It is a habit of theirs very much like dogs eating poop. You dogs do it, but to humans it is disgusting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_McCarthy#Army%E2%80%93McCarthy_he
arings


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly





Well...

If you weren't Red, you wouldn't take the bait.

But here we are.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 8:40 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.

So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.

So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 10:43 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Thursday, March 12, 2020 5:43 PM
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/study-estimates-covid-19-may-hav
e-infected-over-9000-in-us
/


http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=63473&p=13
Eh - it wasn't UCLA that came up with the X60 factor, it was Cedars Sinai plus me. They came up with a projected number of cases, I calculated the X60 factor from that and the confirmed number of cases at the time.

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Saturday, April 18, 2020 11:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.

So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.

So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK




I've already made myself clear.

The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.

You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.

In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 12:44 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I say throw the doors wide open! especially in those republican states that hate their fetters so much. But should the virus resurge, I don't think anyone should make any efforts to help them out either. It's called taking responsibility for your decisions and living - or not - with the consequences.

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 2:08 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]



lol

Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 2:23 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK


SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.

In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.

And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?

did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?

https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp



When is "enough" enough?

And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 2:49 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol

Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Then you must think it's very strange that California leads all other states in per capita GDP by a huge margin.



But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

SIGNYM:
SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK


SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.

In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.

And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?

did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?

https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp



When is "enough" enough?

And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK



100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.

I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

lol

Says Karen from Commiefornia who is giving stimulus relief to people who don't even live here legally.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Then you must think it's very strange that California leads all other states in per capita GDP by a huge margin.



But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk??




Yet they can't manage to clean literal human shit off the streets.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:18 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

JACK:
Yet they can't manage to clean literal human shit off the streets.



And yet the libertarian paradise of Indiana has a far, far higher rate of opioid deaths than California.

But what does that have to do with COVID-19 and allowing states to reopen their economies at will, but at their own risk?

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 4:26 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNY: SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK


SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.

In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.

SIGNY: And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?

did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?

https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp

When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
#WEARAMASK

SIX:100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.
I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.



100 million? In the USA?

SIX, you and reality have parted ways. NOBODY would risk a 1:3 chance of dying to "reopen" the economy, especially an economy that only serves to make the rich richer. What I don't get is why you (of all people) would promote such fascistic (and yes, I mean fascistic) nonsense. I thought you were all for freedom.

I can see sacrificing my life for something, but for sure not to go back to "business as usual". That would be worse than pointless.

AFA government telling you to wear a mask ... you're just throwing a giant temper tantrum. That's all this whole thing is about, isn't it? You convinced yourself that the economy was "doing great" despite all indications to the contrary, decided to take a "vacation" in spite of being advised against it, and just when you thought you had a gig being someone's handyman and the value of your house would go up with all the work you put into it, the rug got pulled out from under you. I agree with KIKI: Your life has been a series of bad decisions. You're smarter than that; you might want to look back and figure out what it is that caused you to do that.

Well, that's enough of discussing you, your temper tantrums and your nasty fantasies.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:22 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

SIGNY: SIX, NOBODY will go with your "solution" of "opening up the economy" and letting a lot of people die. Nobody believes that your whining and bitching and carrying on has anything to do with worrying about the little people and their lives, when you CLEARLY prefer seeing a lot of them them die. If anyone is a "fascist", son, it's you.
So before you start name-calling, why don't you clarify in your own mind exactly WHAT you're trying to achieve, because so far you seem to be a sick, twisted fuck, just like WISHY.
So, just to be abundantly clear: What would you trying to achieve with your plan, SIX? When you have the answer, let us know.
#WEARAMASK


SIX: I've already made myself clear.
The amount of deaths do not in any way justify the actions that have been taken.
You also better hope that a shit ton of people die now, because nobody is going to take the next one seriously at all if they don't, and the next one might actually be something to worry about.

In the mean time, we've trashed the economy over nothing. Let's get back to work.

SIGNY: And what amount of deaths would be "enough" to justify closing the economy?

did you even bother to look at the chart that I linked, or the video that I posted which shows the number of deaths per week due to the coronavirus versus other causes of death, like heart attacks and the 2017-2018 flu plus pneumonia?

https://i.insider.com/5e98cd7173d0c818b1055a52?width=1300&format=j
peg&auto=webp

When is "enough" enough?
And what's wrong with mask-wearing? Do you WANT people to die?
#WEARAMASK

SIX:100 Million deaths. I already answered that question.
I don't have any problem with easily scared people wearing masks. I have a problem with the idea of Government mandating that everybody wear a mask.



100 million? In the USA?

SIX, you and reality have parted ways. NOBODY would risk a 1:3 chance of dying to "reopen" the economy, especially an economy that only serves to make the rich richer. What I don't get is why you (of all people) would promote such fascistic (and yes, I mean fascistic) nonsense. I thought you were all for freedom.

I can see sacrificing my life for something, but for sure not to go back to "business as usual". That would be worse than pointless.

AFA government telling you to wear a mask ... you're just throwing a giant temper tantrum. That's all this whole thing is about, isn't it? You convinced yourself that the economy was "doing great" despite all indications to the contrary, decided to take a "vacation" in spite of being advised against it, and just when you thought you had a gig being someone's handyman and the value of your house would go up with all the work you put into it, the rug got pulled out from under you. I agree with KIKI: Your life has been a series of bad decisions. You're smarter than that; you might want to look back and figure out what it is that caused you to do that.

Well, that's enough of discussing you, your temper tantrums and your nasty fantasies.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK



Let's start with 100 Million worldwide first and see where it goes from there.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:38 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, looking a Sweden via the latest updates on http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ I expected Sweden to be in first place in 20 days (I think that was day #50 on the chart)

Again, so far I've been looking at DEATHS PER MILLION because CONFIRMED CASES is hostage to the number of tests performed, and you MUST adjust the results for population size otherwise they make no sense ...

Few surprises showed up on the chart.

SWEDEN, the "do nothing nation" is still climbing at a faster rate than many other nations (excpet that other "do nothing" nation, Brazil). It overtook Swizterland, Ireland, and the USA some time between day #27-#30 and look on-track to catch up to the Netherlands by day #35, and France and Italy by day #40. (The chart times each nation by "days since the first infection was confirmed".) It still has that peculiar 7-day stepwise pattern which makes the data hard to project. My guess is they don't want to pay their coroners overtime on Saturday and Sunday.

It will probably never catch up to that poor little rich nation of San Marino (surrounded by Italy in the Appenine Mountains) with an astonishing ~1200 deaths per million (1.2%)

It may never catch up to poor little rich nation of Andorra (in the Pyrenees Mountains between France and Spain) with an astonishing 500 deaths per million (0.5%).

Both of these nations are tourist attractions like Switzerland, and tourism probably accounts for all of their high death rates.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 11:52 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?

Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.



BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.

Not 1.2% and .5%.

Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.





At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.

What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 12:57 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?

Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.



BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.

Not 1.2% and .5%.

Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.





At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.

What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I have NEVER counted confirmed cases, moron. I have been pointing out the problem with limited testing EVER SINCE I STARTED POSTING about this, which you would have noticed if you paid the slightest attention to anything other than your own feelz.

Now, how about getting back to your ridiculous plan to kill off almost a third of the people in the USA to "re open" a fascist economy?

Sounds like a winner to me! /snark


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Sunday, April 19, 2020 3:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So. Singapore has seen a sudden resurgence of cases, and deaths. This is tied to their immigrant workers who live 12 to a room and are transported like cattle, standing up and jam-packed in the back of a truck.

A factor which has not been considered in the spread of the disease, but which may explain the varying experiences with different death rates is the number of people living together in any specific building.

In Italy, for example, many households are multigenerational, with great grandparents to babies living in one house.

In NYC, many people live in apartment buildings, and often several people to an apartment. In Sweden and Finland and California, smaller households live in single family homes, and grandma and grandpa are packed off to "assisted living facilities" (where they die in droves but don't infect anyone but each other and the caregivers).

If "social distancing" is the answer, and your most immediate and constant contact is your family, roommates, or dorm-dwellers, then it makes sense that the more contacts you have along those lines the more spread you'll see.

I sensed this with the military, but didn't make the connection to civilian life right away

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 5:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
How are either of those numbers "astonishing"?

Boy are you people in for a rude awakening when something comes that is actually serious.



BTW... 1,200 deaths per million is .12% and 500 deaths per million is .05%.

Not 1.2% and .5%.

Making them less "astonishing" by a factor of 10.





At least you're thinking out side of the box now though and not going by confirmed cases anymore.

What made you finally come around? I've been saying that was bullshit since day fekkin one.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

I have NEVER counted confirmed cases, moron. I have been pointing out the problem with limited testing EVER SINCE I STARTED POSTING about this, which you would have noticed if you paid the slightest attention to anything other than your own feelz.

Now, how about getting back to your ridiculous plan to kill off almost a third of the people in the USA to "re open" a fascist economy?

Sounds like a winner to me! /snark


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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK




My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.

Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 5:46 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

JACK:

My point, dummy, is that nowhere near 1/3 of the population would die.

Quit your fear mongering, Karen 2.

THANKS FOR THE LAFF !!!

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 6:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


You're welcome, Karen 1.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 6:44 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


So, Signy, I know you've been busy elsewhere. Originally my thoughts were that to really explode, the virus needed dense housing, and lots of mixing.

But I've also been trying to find distinct categories of settings, and distinct categories of response. This is my understanding off the top of my head as to what was done where.

Sweden appears to be nearly alone on the 'do nothing' end. And it's a high-income, high-tech country that might be easily compared to other high-income, high-tech countries. BUT there are a lot of exceptions and caveats with the Swedish example. Half the Swedish working population works from home anyway, so social distancing is already built in to the country. And the population is very dispersed, so that makes Sweden not a very good comparison to countries with dense populations, or dense population centers. Sweden relies on volunteerism, and it claims that 90% are voluntarily practicing social distancing anyway. And the news I've seen about Sweden is distinctly contradictory - from they're not doing anything at all to they've recently started to impose controls to they've lifted those controls (about 10 days after the report they were imposing controls). And their testing rate is low. So Sweden is one example of one response, but not a simple, clear-cut one.

SK had a completely different response. It started mass testing EARLY, created a protocol for people trying to enter the country, and imposed MANDATORY (police enforced) home quarantines only for those who test positive and a 14 day home quarantines for people who recovered. In the public sphere it created a very strong social pressure campaign to wear masks, practice good hygiene, and avoid gathering in large groups. Other than that, SK didn't issue any mass stay-at-home recommendations or orders. But SK also has a peculiarity behind its data, in that at one point half of all people with COVID-19 were from the breakaway church that decided to hold large gatherings anyway. So its entry into SARS-COV-2 was extremely circumscribed to that group, and that allowed it to get a handle on who was infected very early.

Taiwan initially had measures similar to SK with the exception that it closed its borders and airports, but cases have spiked recently. Also, I'm not sure that they have as much testing as SK. BTW Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan are currently in the same place w/ cases/1M but got there by different routes. Macau is right across the bay from Hong Kong and is essentially Las Vegas, it simply shut down all its casinos, and has leveled off at a very low level. After a big jump lasting about 20 days, Taiwan is leveling off, but Hong Kong is still very much on the upswing. THANKS! Carrie Lam!

Anyway, Italy is a good example of ... something. Because it wasn't all of Italy that was affected, it was mostly some very restricted urban regions in the north. So, as a very urban example of do nothing until too late, maybe it works. Maybe the closest equivalent is NYC, with its very dense urban population that had unseen community spread for a long time as well. (And NJ seems very tied to NYC in terms of cases/1M and the shape of the curve.)

California is a good example of ... idk. Overall it has a really dispersed population w/ high levels of mixing - yanno, driving large distances from all over to get together in one place like work, at the store etc. And it has a curve that's unlike most others in that despite stay at home advisories, and while the numbers are really low per 1M, the curve is hardly bending. It's a puzzle.



BTW, looking at the data and how hard it is to bend the curve in dense urban areas, and how SLOWLY the curve returns back to zero, I have a theory. Assuming dispersed populations have an automatic cut-off in terms of mixing, once people stop making the effort to get together, the natural isolation drops the mixing to near zero. But a dense population will ALWAYS have a residual amount of mixing because you just can't get away from each other, even if you want to. So they're will always be residual transmission.


Anyway, I'd be curious what you think of this train of thought. But I know you're busy, so pls don't spend a lot of time on this. I'm just curious.





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Sunday, April 19, 2020 8:04 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.

Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu
/

Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.

****

I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat. Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.

Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).

I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".


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Sunday, April 19, 2020 8:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Plenty of poor people have had it and recovered from it.

They just don't go running to the doctor every time they get the sniffles like the rich folk do.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, April 19, 2020 9:01 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, my main concern was to try and compare Sweden's "do nothing" approach (altho, as you posted, in reality they ARE doing something, it's just voluntary) to a mandatory approach.

Denmark isn't a good comparison because it's a lot more crowded than Sweden, so in terms of population density, percent of people in assisted living, percent of people who work from home and technical capability Norway is the closest analogue and Finland would be second. None of them are big tourist destinations.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/879251/employees-teleworking-in-th
e-eu
/

Sweden is currently at 146 deaths/MM (Jeez, last time I pulled out a figure it was 88) Norway is at 30.6, Finland is at 16.3 and (just for kicks) Denmark is at 59.4.

****

I can explain San Marino and Andorra, which are microstates heavily dependent on tourism. Switzerland is in the same boat.

The Swiss have plenty of other high tech and financialism income, so it's not as dependent on tourism. And indeed Switzerland is about 3,000cases/M, while Andorra is ~9,000 and San Marino is ~11,000. I don't really count either Andorra or San Marino though, because their populations are so low, fluke events could drive their statistics in any direction.
Quote:

Spain and Italy also have a lot of tourists, and under troika-enforced austerity I would imagine that housing is more multi-generational than in the Nordic countries because assisted living is a luxury that neither the government nor individuals can afford, but I can't explain Belgium which is right up there with Andorra and still climbing. Also, you would think that Portugal would be the same as Spain (austerity, tourism) but it's not.
In terms of ppm deaths, and not counting San Marino and Andorra, it's Belgium on a steep rise, Spain leveling off, Italy / France/ UK on literally the exact same curve (except France and UK were later getting there), then the Netherlands with a weirdly undulating curve, then Sweden and Switzerland on the same curve except Sweden's still soaring at the recent end while Switzerland is leveling off. I can account for the Belgium - it's a wealthy, highly international place with a very dense population. In terms of economy/ austerity/ density/ culture ... I'd put Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal in the same category. Wasn't that big soccer match between Italy and Spain? That could explain why those 2 countries specifically were so hard hit and Portugal and Greece weren't.
In terms of ppm deaths, Italy / France/ UK being on the exact same curve. But maybe because Italy's issues were limited geographically but are averaged out across the whole country, it puts a big kink in comparisons. But I can see both France and the UK being equivalent. But why they're both so high I'm not sure. BTW Sweden Switzerland and the US are on the same curve with some variation - the US's curve in time isn't as long as either of the other 2, and Sweden is still headed to the stratosphere while Switzerland is leveling off.
Quote:

Anyway, your post sparked a whole lot of thoughts about "where people are exposed" ... at work; in residences; in open-air public; at mass gatherings like spring break, religious celebrations, and sports events ... and so far mass gatherings seem to be the biggest driver, place of residence seems to be another, and work - specifically in the tourism sector - seems to be another important one. But that is already evolving as the initial exposures spark secondary exposures (in health care workers, for example).

I have heard that "wealth is a Covid-19 vector", which goes along with my observation that in the west it was first prevalent in what I called the "well-heeled, well-traveled, well-connected".


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Sunday, April 19, 2020 10:07 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


What I got out of this is that there is no "one size fits all" solution*. Some nations (or states) have many people who can work from home, others have high tourism/travel, some are manufacturing intensive and others can manage with testing and contact tracing.

Sweden can get away with an approach that NYC can't. And even with all of its built-in advantages, Sweden's experience isn't as good as similar nations with similar advantages.

Unless you're like China, and you pull out all the stops and do EVERYTHING POSSIBLE, at the point of a gun, literally locking down an entire province, separating sick family members from healthy, and building at least a half-dozen pop-up hospitals. But then, that's China.

*Except #WEARAMASK in public. That is truly appropriate no matter what kind of society.

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Monday, April 20, 2020 1:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I think it's hilarious how many commercials I heard on the radio today while working outside in the garage telling people to wash their hands.

As if that's only something they should be doing when the government is lying to them about a fake deadly disease.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, April 20, 2020 3:54 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


So, thinking back KIKI to what you posted about California's slow but steady increase in cases ... I think you can infer the mode of transmission from the shape of the curve.

So, what mode of transmission produces this slow, steady rise? I think we can rule out any specific mass-gathering/event because that would produce sudden spikes in the case #s. Close contact spread would lead to a higher curve, as would crowded housing (because then it would spread to 3,4 or more people all at once). And given that so much is locked down we can rule out schools, gyms etc.

It probably is person-to-person in "essential" public spaces... grocery stores, home improvement stores etc.

Well, it's only been two weeks since the people in my local stores have gotten to near-100% on mask-wearing, so if it's "essential" public spaces, for example, we should see the effects soon (once we get past the Mardi Gras bump?)



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Monday, April 20, 2020 5:46 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I've been reading about this - how atypical COVID-19 pneumonia is.

A little background: except with certain very particular diseases, like advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, people get a sense of needing to breathe MORE!!! NOW!!! (suffocation) not because they're running low on blood oxygen, but because the carbon dioxide they'd normally exhale is building up in their blood. And pneumonia interferes with gas exchange in the lungs, because the tiny delicate sacs called alveoli where gases are normally exchanged between air and blood are instead filled with pus or fluid. Oxygen needs to go into the blood, and carbon dioxide needs to go out.

Normal blood oxygen is 94-99(100)% of all the oxygen the blood can hold. In COVID-19 pneumonia, people can have a little as 50% the normal blood oxygen without feeling distress. (BTW, in my hospital work, there were plenty of people dying at 70-80% blood oxygen during a code, and if it was lower than 65% we assumed it was an accidental draw from a vein instead of an artery. So when this doctor writes about how shockingly low their blood oxygen levels were, I can understand a bit of how he feels).

Somehow, oxygen isn't getting in due to pneumonia, but carbon dioxide is getting out.

How is this disconnect happening?

Quote:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumon
ia.html

We are only just beginning to understand why this is so. The coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant. This substance helps keep the air sacs in the lungs stay open between breaths and is critical to normal lung function. As the inflammation from Covid pneumonia starts, it causes the air sacs to collapse, and oxygen levels fall. Yet the lungs initially remain “compliant,” not yet stiff or heavy with fluid. This means patients can still expel carbon dioxide — and without a buildup of carbon dioxide, patients do not feel short of breath.

Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it. This silent hypoxia, and the patient’s physiological response to it, causes even more inflammation and more air sacs to collapse, and the pneumonia worsens until their oxygen levels plummet. In effect, the patient is injuring their own lungs by breathing harder and harder. Twenty percent of Covid pneumonia patients then go on to a second and deadlier phase of lung injury. Fluid builds up and the lungs become stiff, carbon dioxide rises, and patients develop acute respiratory failure.

By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.

Silent hypoxia progressing rapidly to respiratory failure explains cases of Covid-19 patients dying suddenly after not feeling short of breath. (It appears that most Covid-19 patients experience relatively mild symptoms and get over the illness in a week or two without treatment.)

A major reason this pandemic is straining our health system is the alarming severity of lung injury patients have when they arrive in emergency rooms. Covid-19 overwhelmingly kills through the lungs. And because so many patients are not going to the hospital until their pneumonia is already well advanced, many wind up on ventilators, causing shortages of the machines. And once on ventilators, many die.



This explains to me the many people who were improving, in the hospital or at home, who then suddenly died. And it explains the many patients who die at home because they weren't ever doing too badly.

I think there should be a protocol for EMS that requires hospital transport for evaluation when a person's oxygen saturation is below 90% (optimal) or 87% (practical). Because by then, the person has serious pneumonia.



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Monday, April 20, 2020 7:15 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I have read in various places - but can't recall where at the moment- that if you treat with oxygen very early in the disease you will reduce mortality by quite a bit... 50% or more. That may be one of the reasons why fatalities seem to escalate beyond the number of infections when the crisis becomes acute. Because as medical systems are overcome, they resort to keeping people at home with no treatment, and that more people then progress to severe/fatal illness when they might have recovered with less radical treatment earlier.

As the weeks go on doctors are learning more and more how to treat covid-19.

The one thing I'm very resistant to is that Fauci, Bill Gates et al seem to be bent on keeping everyone hostage, prolonging the crisis until we get a vaccine ... THEIR vaccine... by which they will make a lot of money

That's one of the reasons why I don't understand what people like SIX have against mask-wearing, even mandatory mask-wearing. It's the one preventative action that everyone can take that isn't going to get any corporation or bank rich, and doesn't cede a whole lot of control to the government.

You'd have to be a bonehead not to get that point.

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Monday, April 20, 2020 7:52 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Interesting. Don't spend a lot of time on that, but if you could find it I'd be interested.

I read something related. It was that common practice was to automatically intubate patients with low oxygen saturations (O-sats), but that intubation might be causing its own set of pathologies. So it recommended pronation, O2 by nasal cannula, and CPAP or BIPAP first, in that order.

Maybe there should be special treatment hospitals/ wings/ floors for people with COVID-19 whose only symptom is low O-sats (and fever plus other non-life-threatening symptoms). You do want to continuously monitor them in case they progress to ARDS, and in a place where they could be quickly transported to an intensive-care setting, so you'd want them to be in a hospital. But it seems you could avoid a lot of mortality with early at home screening, and widespread, low-invasive, O2 treatment and monitoring.

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Monday, April 20, 2020 7:56 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


As for masks - no kidding.

Just fyi - as you know, I've been harping about testing for quite a while (and after all this time, in the 'greatest' country on the planet, we still don't have enough). But I've also been recommending masks and hand sanitizers since page 1 of this thread.

So Signy and I have been posting the same things for a long time.

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Monday, April 20, 2020 9:18 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


99% or more don't need hand sanitizers or masks.

They need one of two things... preferably both.

1. Don't be old.

2. If you can't help that... healthy eating habits, vitamins, regular exercise and just a general healthy lifestyle will do.


But, I mean, it's too late if you're already old and you treated your body like shit your entire life. Then you better wear a mask and wash your hands like you've got the world's worst case of OCD.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, April 20, 2020 10:40 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Yanno, if only 1% are going to die of COVID-19 in this country, that's 3.5M deaths.

You either need to check your math or you need to check your brain, because something isn't right with your post.



I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 12:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Yanno, if only 1% are going to die of COVID-19 in this country, that's 3.5M deaths.

You either need to check your math or you need to check your brain, because something isn't right with your post.



I apologize to everyone for starting a thread to keep up with facts about SARS-COV-2, and driving JACK over the edge with too much reality.



Hence the "or more"... very likely or more.

I'm perfectly alright with 3.5 million deaths, but there won't be that many.

NYC is near 100% infection rate.


I'm a patient man. I've been waiting years to rub Trump's upcoming win in Ted and Second's face.

Going to be fun rubbing this one in yours too. Maybe even more because you've dethroned Wishy as king bitch of the RWED, Karen.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 12:36 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Well, WISHY was willing to flush all but 100 in support of her agenda, and you're willing to flush 3.5M+ in support of yours. I think that puts you number 2 on the Hitler scale.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 12:40 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


But I have a question for you. Is your goal environmental, to, yanno, reduce the number of people on the planet?

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 4:05 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Apaprently there are a number of serological tests being run by various research institutions to look at the infection rate of SARS Cov-2.

One, in Santa Clara, purported to show that the infection rate was 50-80X higher than previously confirmed. However, I heard some interesting criticisms of that test that I wouldn't have known about if I had taken the results at face value.

The first is that the sample population was NOT random. The authors recruited people on FB by offering a Covid-19 test, so the sample could have been enriched by people who felt that they had had symptoms and/or were exposed and were looking to get tested by the only means available to them. And, since they were recruiting on FB, I'll bet you dollars to donuts some people on FB recruited their equally worried FB friends. Statistically, only 50 people in 3,300 with specific concerns would have been enough to kink the study results.

The second comment is that the (Chinese) particular test kit that they used had real-world issues with false positives.

The third criticism is that one of the lead authors has a financial interest in the test kit so there's a built-in conflict of interest.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/20/california
-antibody-studies-suggest-higher-infection-rates-but-experts-warn-data-could-be-flawed-1278211


But other studies are in the works ... the latest from USC which shows that approximately 4% of the LA population had Covid-19 at one point. Unlike the Stanford study, the population was really random. But they used the same point-of-care test kits as the first study, which are plagued by high false positives.

https://news.yahoo.com/early-study-points-far-more-072149550.html

In any case, I think it's safe to assume that California is in the realm of about 1-6% infected, depending on where you are, which puts us in the very early stages of the pandemic. That means that there are potentially ~15 - 80X more deaths still waiting in the wings.



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If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 4:23 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


And now a word from the other side ...

Quote:

Sweden Vs COVID-19: Why "Herd Immunity" Matters & Why Lockdown Doesn't Really Work

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based

The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only

This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”

The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better

The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact

The paper was very much too pessimistic

Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway

The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown

You can have a large portion of "the vulnerable" die and thus "flatten the curve" but ONLY IF you have a massive die off first, and THEN have the daily deaths diminish. OTOH, neither Finland nor Norway have had a die-off, and yet they've managed to "flatten the curve" without killing off their most vulnerable, so his statement is clearly false on its face.

Quote:

The results will eventually be similar for all countries

Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.

The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%

At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

When is that? Two years from now?

In any case, testing serological testing in CA is demonstrating relatively low infection rates (Probaby less than 5%). It would be interesting to see what the infection rates are in such clusterfucked areas as northern Italy and NYC, but they're so up to their asses in alligators I don't know if they have time to test.

That would be where coordination would help, since lesser-impacted states could volunteer to help with the sampling and analysis.


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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 4:51 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Thanks for looking up the problems w/ the Stanford study. I don't know how long it took you to dig that out, but it's extremely relevant. I appreciate it.

I did also read about the USC study here: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serolo
gy-testing-la-county

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 5:10 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Though I wish tptb would give serious consideration to what really works, short of fantasizing that antibodies will be manna from heaven, thinking that ppl will need an 'antibody passport' registered with the government to do anything in public, or that we'll just have to endure and wait to line up whenever $vaccine$ becomes available, or some other fascistic fantasy. There are better ways to deal with this. Yanno, look at SK, with an extremely low infection rate, and a nearly flat (log) curve, that didn't do any of that nonsense, and still has its economy running.

The solution is abundantly clear.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 7:35 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


What is abundantly clear?

Are you comparing SK to the US?

By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.


Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320

Quote:

SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.

Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.

"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.

Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.

South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.

The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.

Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.






As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.

People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 2:09 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
But other studies are in the works ... the latest from USC which shows that approximately 4% of the LA population had Covid-19 at one point.

If you take the USC and Stanford studies at their word (since they both came up with reasonably similar percentages), you could extrapolate that 0.04 fraction of the state of California was infected. Multiplying that by the state of 40M population gives 1,600,000 infected. There were roughly 1250 deaths in California so the fraction of deaths of those infected is 0.0008.

If you take the number of deaths in NYC (roughly 10,000) and divide by the death/infected fraction, you get 12,800,000 infected. But that's impossible, since there are only about 8M people in NYC.

The tests are bogus.

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 4:57 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Here’s a Lifesaving COVID-19 Test That Costs Almost Nothing

Well, almost nothing after you buy the $40 pulse/oxygen meter from Walgreens. It is next to blood pressure monitors and blood glucose monitors.

www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/heres-a-lifesaving-covid-19-tes
t-that-costs-almost-nothing
/

The New York Times ran a fascinating op-ed on Monday, and I’m surprised that it hasn’t gotten more attention. Here’s the nickel summary: a hotshot ER doctor volunteered to spend time at Bellevue Hospital in Manhattan and discovered something odd. Practically everyone he saw had pneumonia caused by COVID-19:

Even patients without respiratory complaints had Covid pneumonia. The patient stabbed in the shoulder, whom we X-rayed because we worried he had a collapsed lung, actually had Covid pneumonia. In patients on whom we did CT scans because they were injured in falls, we coincidentally found Covid pneumonia. Elderly patients who had passed out for unknown reasons and a number of diabetic patients were found to have it.

And here is what really surprised us: These patients did not report any sensation of breathing problems, even though their chest X-rays showed diffuse pneumonia and their oxygen was below normal. How could this be?

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

You can—and should!—click the link to read the details, but the short answer turns out to be that COVID-19 attacks the lungs in an unusual way: it causes the air sacs to collapse and oxygen levels to fall, but the lungs still expel carbon dioxide normally. Since it’s carbon dioxide buildup that causes you to feel short of breath, patients had never even noticed anything was wrong:

A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors….Patients compensate for the low oxygen in their blood by breathing faster and deeper — and this happens without their realizing it….By the time patients have noticeable trouble breathing and present to the hospital with dangerously low oxygen levels, many will ultimately require a ventilator.

As you know, about 80 percent of people with COVID-19 have either mild symptoms or no symptoms. But the other 20 percent develop pneumonia and many end up on ventilators and eventually die. The problem is that they don’t feel anything for the first week, and by the time they do it’s too late. So how can we catch these cases earlier? With this:

This is a pulse oximeter, and it measures the level of oxygenation in your blood. You probably get a quick oxygenation test every time you see a doctor. So the answer is: test your blood oxygenation every day. If it falls below normal levels, get to an ER and get tested for COVID-19. Your chances of survival are way higher if you can get to it early.

Yes, I Bought a Pulse Oximeter Today
by Kevin Drum

Just to follow up on this morning’s post, I did indeed go out to Walgreens and buy a pulse oximeter today.
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/yes-i-bought-a-pulse-oximeter-t
oday
/


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 5:40 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


KIKI already posted this but thanks for the repeat.

If people truly are damaging their own lungs in an effort to get more O2, then one super easy way to prevent damage is to simply give people O2 early on, and to test for Osats at home. Both in-home tests and therapies

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 5:50 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
What is abundantly clear?

Are you comparing SK to the US?

By what metric? Everything from our cultures to our infrastructure couldn't be more different. And the variations of population densities across our country couldn't be more wild... something that SK really doesn't have.


Even with their "limited" response to the Coomph, they sound pretty worried about the effects of them. They seem a lot more honest about the reprocussions from what little comparative actions they have taken than any of our media is.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200421005300320

Quote:

SEJONG, April 21 (Yonhap) -- The coronavirus pandemic could have a negative impact on births and marriages this year and is feared to accelerate population decline in South Korea, a senior finance ministry official said Tuesday.

Vice Finance Minister Kim Yong-beom said in a meeting on the nation's population policy that the coronavirus outbreak has reshaped people's everyday lives, prompting people to work from home and students to take online classes.

"There are worries that shocks from COVID-19 could have a negative impact on births and marriages and accelerate a decline in birthrates this year," Kim said.

Kim urged officials to take a "new approach" on population policy in the wake of the pandemic.

South Korea's total fertility rate hit an all-time low in 2019, a clear sign of its population decline down the road.

The country's total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime, came to 0.92 last year, down from 0.98 a year earlier, according to the data from Statistics Korea.

Last year marked the second consecutive year for the rate to fall below 1. South Korea was the only member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that had a total fertility rate below 1.






As for people here? It's been 5 or 6 weeks now for most of us, which for many of us is all the time it takes to develop new habits. Good or bad.

People aren't just going to bounce back from this. Some will. Most won't. People are going to be changed, and more people will be changed the longer this goes on. But at least they'll be washing their hands, because I guess until late March of 2020 that wasn't a thing that a lot of people did.

Do Right, Be Right. :)




Ignoring facts outside of your one track mind again, I see.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, April 21, 2020 7:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Signy, looking at DIVOC the California 'cases' curve started to heel over ~March 31, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)", so it looks like stay at home most closely associates with bending the curve.

Then there's another bend around April 10, 2020. The event previous to that was "===> April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.".

LACounty has an extremely inconsistent up/down pattern that I think might be due to backlogged laboratories (and it's been well reported how delayed results are) submitting positive results in batches. Just the other day, there was an extra large backlogged batch of ~1,100 confirmed cases submitted in one day. That spike and the reason for it even made the news.


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Wednesday, April 22, 2020 2:18 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


This is an exceptionally data-comprehensive article in the NYTimes, which you can access for free as long as you're not in incognito mode.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-death-ra
tes.html


You can look at California https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cas
es.html
to see how we're doing, by going to the bottom of the page. Links to (among other things) individual states are found there.

Unfortunately, when it comes to California data, the dump of ~1,100 backlogged new positive LACounty cases by a laboratory in one day (April 20, 220) makes hash of any time sequence you might want to formally derive.

But if you except that artificial spike, it looks like stay-at-home had the clearest effect 2 weeks out at significantly cutting new California cases from an upslope curve to a downslope curve.

CA stay at home March 19, 2020 (PM)
April 03, 2020 The CDC recommends all people wear masks outside the home.
April 03, 2020 LACounty asks all people wear masks outside the home.
April 07, 2020 The City of Los Angeles requires all people wear masks outside the home.


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