REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Some Covid-19 thoughts

POSTED BY: CAPTAINCRUNCH
UPDATED: Friday, January 5, 2024 20:12
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 5:49 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Wrong



Yes. You are wrong in your assertion that I'm wrong.

Quote:

Wrong.


Yes. You are also wrong again in this assertion that I'm wrong.

Quote:

But, good question: why not kill off a bunch of people? Maybe because if you kill off enough people, SOME wealth will concentrate among the sheeple, and the goal is to make the sheeple poor, not to make people dead?


The sheeple are already poor. You're a boomer at the end of your life who still has some of the pie. You just haven't noticed it in your own life that everyone after you is fucked. With or without the Coomph we'd have all been poor and unable to afford any type of insurance for anything within another 20 years.

Quote:

I'm not saying it was, either. Altho there is some speculation that the virus was developed here and sent (via international games held in China) to China via USA athletes. But I do have to ask: Cui bono?


There's always speculation. It's fun to speculate.

Quote:

China doesn't win. As "factory tho the world" their real economy suffered more than ours (so far).


Yes. That's what I said.

Quote:

"Fortress Russia" turned out not to be impregnable to a virus.


They weren't even on my radar, honestly.

Quote:

many of the large, poor, disorganized nations ... India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia ... will take a big death toll hit.


No they won't. But none of them did it either. The fear of what the repercussions would be if America, China or Russia discovered that they did it intentionally alone would be enough to dissuade them... unless we're talking about a mad dictator who singlehandedly went off the rails or something.

Quote:

The only winner so far is The Fed because it has 'lent' many big banks ... including international ones ... an unimaginable amount of money and now has them in thrall. The EU central bank (ECB) so far has not been able to crank up digital money-creation because the nation backstopping such loans ... Germany... won't go along with it.


No more in their thrall than they already were. Our currency has been monopoly money for longer than I've been alive. This didn't just happen in the last 2 months.


Quote:

It isn't. If you can drop out of the workforce and nobody goes hungry or naked or sick or unhoused, then what were you doing, exactly? Polishing doorknobs?


Then figure out UBI or something. And then figure out a way to keep people busy that doesn't involve jacking off all day and watching Netflix. Because we're on the precipice of an unprecedented amount of suicides when the realization hits millions that their existence is superfluous. Particularly among males.

Quote:

Why would the elite kill off a bunch of people? Has it not occurred to you that the elite want an entire WORLD full of desperately poor people who have no control over their future? Maybe their idea of heaven is billions of people in such miserable conditions that they're willing to do ANYthing ... sell their kidneys, their hearts, their babies ... to extend the lives of the elite. Yanno, their idea of heaven could be our idea of hell.


Overpopulation. It is the real crisis of the 21st century. Just because you're playing dumb about it doesn't mean that people smarter and far more powerful than us don't know that and aren't making plans.

Maybe the plan is to catalyze en-masse suicide. Then the media can say that they did it to themselves.

Quote:

And here I am, telling them that they should get up off their asses, step away from whatever screen they're looking at, and MAKE themselves essential. Take back control of government and economic policy. Stop begging for "more of the same but worse" and start working towards something better.



And how exactly do you make yourself "essential"?

There's too many people. That is impossible. We're a world of consumers. If consumerism dies after this, than so does the purpose of half of the human beings on the planet.

Probably more.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 6:26 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIX ...instead of wiping out less people in a year than die from automobile accidents

SIGNY:Wrong

SIX: Yes. You are wrong in your assertion that I'm wrong.

Do you even have a ballpark figure in your head as to how many people die of automobile accidents every year? I do. You, apparently, don't. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.

Quote:

SIX: ... most of whom were close to checking out anyhow.

SIGNY: Wrong.

SIX: Yes. You are also wrong again in this assertion that I'm wrong.

Do you have any idea how many additional years those people would have lived if not for Covid-19? I do. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.

Quote:

SIGNY: But, good question: why not kill off a bunch of people? Maybe because if you kill off enough people, SOME wealth will concentrate among the sheeple, and the goal is to make the sheeple poor, not to make people dead?

SIX: The sheeple are already poor. You're a boomer at the end of your life who still has some of the pie. You just haven't noticed it in your own life that everyone after you is fucked.

People MY age are fucked. That handyman, that homeless sometime gardener, people in my own close family? They got fucked, too. It's not just people "after me" ... like everyone my age has it made ... EVERYONE is getting fucked. That's why there's 70-year-old Walmart greeters. Jeezus, SIX, stop feeling so specially picked on!


Quote:

SIGNY: The only winner so far is The Fed because it has 'lent' many big banks ... including international ones ... an unimaginable amount of money and now has them in thrall. The EU central bank (ECB) so far has not been able to crank up digital money-creation because the nation backstopping such loans ... Germany... won't go along with it.

SIX: No more in their thrall than they already were. Our currency has been monopoly money for longer than I've been alive. This didn't just happen in the last 2 months.

Apparently you haven't looked into the Fed balance sheet lately, nor the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Again, you might want to look that up instead of speaking out of your ass.

*****

MORE LATER

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:34 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Do you even have a ballpark figure in your head as to how many people die of automobile accidents every year? I do. You, apparently, don't. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.



Not my ass, but the WHO does have the stink of a bunch of assholes running that show.

But yeah... 1.25 MILLION globally in 2013, according to the WHO, since you asked.

https://www.who.int/gho/road_safety/mortality/traffic_deaths_number/en/

Yup. I'm right again. Thank you very much.


Quote:

Do you have any idea how many additional years those people would have lived if not for Covid-19? I do. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.


Of the very small amount of people who actually died of the Coomph, and not all those bullshit inflated numbers by adding a bunch of deaths that weren't due to the Coomph, not many.

If you are younger than the average life expectancy of a human being, you have almost ZERO to worry about even if you catch it. FACT.

Quote:

People MY age are fucked. That handyman, that homeless sometime gardener, people in my own close family? They got fucked, too. It's not just people "after me" ... like everyone my age has it made ... EVERYONE is getting fucked. That's why there's 70-year-old Walmart greeters. Jeezus, SIX, stop feeling so specially picked on!


The only difference is that we're all going to be WalMart greeters when my generation is your age. Without retirement funds. Without any meaningful health insurance.

Oh, wait... half of us are non-essential now. We're going to wish we could be WalMart greeters.



Quote:

Apparently you haven't looked into the Fed balance sheet lately, nor the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Again, you might want to look that up instead of speaking out of your ass.


What the fuck does it matter if we're talking billions or trillions when it's all monopoly money. So what that they have more paper and ones and zeros. They already owned everything long before The Coomph made you piss your panties.


Quote:

MORE LATER



Breath, bated...

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 10:59 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNYM: Do you even have a ballpark figure in your head as to how many people die of automobile accidents every year? I do. You, apparently, don't. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.

SIX: ...yeah... 1.25 MILLION globally in 2013, according to the WHO, since you asked.

In the United States? Got THAT figure handy?

In the USA it used to be as high as 57,000. But various safety measures like airbags and seatbelts have reduced it to around 37,000 per year. Meanwhile, about 100,000 people have died of Covid-19 so far this year, and we're only at the end of May. So your fart-thought that "more people die of car accidents" is wrong.

As usual.
Quote:

SIGNY: Do you have any idea how many additional years those people would have lived if not for Covid-19? I do. You might want to look that up instead of speaking from your ass.

SIX: Of the very small amount of people who actually died of the Coomph

Bullshit
Quote:

, and not all those bullshit inflated numbers by adding a bunch of deaths that weren't due to the Coomph, not many.
By calculating the average life expectancy of categories of people matched by age. sex, and comorbidities, it's been found that for the average person dying of Covid-19, their life was cut short by 11 years.

Quote:

SIGNY: People MY age are fucked. That handyman, that homeless sometime gardener, people in my own close family? They got fucked, too. It's not just people "after me" ... like everyone my age has it made ... EVERYONE is getting fucked. That's why there's 70-year-old Walmart greeters. Jeezus, SIX, stop feeling so specially picked on!

SIX: The only difference is that we're all going to be WalMart greeters when my generation is your age. Without retirement funds. Without any meaningful health insurance. Oh, wait... half of us are non-essential now. We're going to wish we could be WalMart greeters.

Wow, sounding like a whiny karen much?



Yanno, for a smart person you sure are awfully stupid. Where do you think your health care and retirement money are going, son? Into the pockets of the wealthy. NOT your dad. He only comes to mind because you see him around once in a while, and his wealth is comprehensible by you. You never see the really wealthy, and their wealth is apparently beyond your imagination.

Quote:

SIGNY: Apparently you haven't looked into the Fed balance sheet lately, nor the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Again, you might want to look that up instead of speaking out of your ass.

SIX: What the fuck does it matter if we're talking billions or trillions when it's all monopoly money. So what that they have more paper and ones and zeros.

Well, if THAT'S how you feel, then why are you pissing and moaning about not having any of it, Karen?


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:14 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Just for context

Quote:

American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic

* U.S. billionaires saw their fortunes soar by $434 billion during the nation's lockdown between mid-March and mid-May, according to a new report.

*Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg had the biggest gains.

*Bezos added $34.6 billion to his wealth and Zuckerberg picked up $25 billion.

America's billionaires saw their fortunes soar by $434 billion during the U.S. lockdown between mid-March and mid-May, according to a new report.

Amazon's Jeff Bezos and Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg had the biggest gains, with Bezos adding $34.6 billion to his wealth and Zuckerberg adding $25 billion, according to the report from Americans for Tax Fairness and the Institute for Policy Studies' Program for Inequality. The report is based on Forbes data for America's more than 600 billionaires between March 18, when most states were in lockdown, and May 19.

The billionaire gains highlight how the coronavirus pandemic has rewarded the largest and most tech-focused companies, even as the economy and labor force grapples with the worst economic crisis in recent history.

According to the report, the net worth of America's billionaires grew 15% during the two-month period, to $3.382 trillion from $2.948 trillion.
The biggest gains were at the top of the billionaire pyramid, with the richest five billionaires -- Bezos, Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, and Larry Ellison -- seeing combined wealth gains of $76 billion.

Elon Musk had among the largest percentage gain of billionaires during the two months, seeing his net worth jump by 48% in the two months to $36 billion. Zuckerberg was close behind, seeing his wealth surge by 46% in the two months, to $80 billion. Bezos' wealth increased by 31% to $147 billion. Bezos' ex-wife, MacKenzie Bezos, who received Amazon shares in their divorce, also saw her wealth increase by a third, to $48 billion.

Because the study timeline captures the stock market bottom and quick rebound, it creates a slightly sunnier picture for billionaires than the full year. For the year, Buffett's wealth has declined by $20 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaire's Index, while Gates is down by $4.3 billion. For the year, Jeff Bezos has gained $35.5 billion while Zuckerberg is up by $9 billion.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/american-billionaires-got-434-billion-
richer-during-the-pandemic.html


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:19 PM

BRENDA


BC today logged no Covid related deaths.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:21 PM

BRENDA


Don't know if Vancouver will be a hub city for hockey as once you enter BC, you have to self-isolate for 14 days. So we shall see.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2020 11:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Your US death numbers for the Coomph are bullshit Signy.

Until you can admit that, we have nothing further to discuss on the topic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 12:30 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Your US death numbers for the Coomph are bullshit Signy.

Until you can admit that, we have nothing further to discuss on the topic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)



So, SPEAKING OF BULLSHIT NUMBERS...

WHAT ABOUT THAT 4TH GRADE ARITHMETIC PROBLEM THAT YOU'VE BEEN AVOIDING, SIX?

YOU KNOW ...

327 MILLION * 0.4 (OR 0.3, IF YOU WANT TO BE CONSERVATIVE) INFECTION FATALITY RATE?

HOW MUCH WAS THAT, AGAIN?

500.000?





-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 4:08 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


EVIDENCE THAT CORONAVIRUS IS UNDERCOUNTED


Quote:

The problem with the Covid-19 death numbers
...I was reminded of that disconnect between truth and reality -- and the difficulties of accounting for disaster-related deaths -- this week as researchers from Yale School of Public Health and the Washington Post published a report looking at "excess deaths" from Covid-19.

The Yale findings indicate officials are vastly underestimating the toll of the pandemic.

"What the actual fatality count from Covid is or was is still not clear," Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, as well as a professor of public health, told me. "We're in a muddle of numbers, which is a problem."

It may seem a callous term, but "excess deaths" are critical to understanding this pandemic. The term refers to the number of deaths that are found to be in "excess" of the normal death rate for a particular place during a certain period of time.
This is a statistical estimate, not a case-by-case accounting. Yet many epidemiologists and medical examiners consider it to be the best measure of pandemic- and disaster-related deaths. It's not hard to see why. It's easier to measure the total number of deaths and compare those to a past baseline than it is to test every victim, to review their medical records, to interview their family members and to come to an objective assessment. That case-by-case methodology is extremely hard to carry out in practice and often will come up short.

"The assignment of causes of death is more of an art than a science," Daniel Weinberger, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, and the report's lead researcher, told me. The assignment might change from one doctor to the next, he said.

...The Yale figures work like that, too. The researchers found 15,400 excess deaths in the United States from March 1 through April 4, the early weeks of the coronavirus's rampage through this country. During that time, only about half that many deaths -- 8,128 -- had been attributed to Covid-19, according the report.

The figures suggest the pandemic has been far worse than reported.

Just like in China, in the early days test kits were not available. Something that YOU, SIX, have pointed out numerous times. This meant that many people died without having even been tested for viral RNA. But if the symptoms fit .... unusual chest Xrays typical of Covid but not other pneumonias, for example, these early deaths were probably mostly Covid and deserved to be counted as such.

Quote:

"Not everyone who dies due to Covid-19 is going to have 'Covid' listed on their death certificate or get counted in those official statistics; so there is going to be some level of undercounting," said Weinberger, from the Yale School of Public Health. "Because of the lags in the [mortality] data and how long it takes to report and backfill the data, it's going to be some time before we have a handle on how much it's underreported. A conservative estimate is that the real number [of Covid-19 deaths] is maybe 1 ½ or two times higher than what the reported numbers are."
The excess death figures aren't perfect, either, Weinberger said. Did deaths drop because there are fewer traffic accidents with fewer people on the road? Did some people avoid seeking medical care because they were afraid of catching Covid-19 at a hospital, and therefore died from otherwise treatable infections or diseases? It's hard to tell. But the measurement remains a critical method for understanding the broad impact of the coronavirus, experts said.
I asked Aaron Bernstein, interim director of the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment (C-CHANGE) at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, whether excess deaths were the best measure of the toll of a pandemic. Yes, he said. "For sure."
The point, to me, and to the experts I reached by phone this week, is that we know far less about the actual toll of Covid-19 in the United States than officials and the media tell us.





-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 4:09 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.




Quote:

SIGNY: Apparently you haven't looked into the Fed balance sheet lately, nor the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Again, you might want to look that up instead of speaking out of your ass.

SIX: What the fuck does it matter if we're talking billions or trillions when it's all monopoly money. So what that they have more paper and ones and zeros.

Well, if THAT'S how you feel, then why are you pissing and moaning about not having any of it, Karen?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 4:42 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Back to my original speculation ...

Quote:

SIGNY: It isn't. If you can drop out of the workforce and nobody goes hungry or naked or sick or unhoused, then what were you doing, exactly? Polishing doorknobs?

SIX: Then figure out UBI or something. And then figure out a way to keep people busy that doesn't involve jacking off all day and watching Netflix. Because we're on the precipice of an unprecedented amount of suicides when the realization hits millions that their existence is superfluous. Particularly among males.

Being a whiny Karen much?

Here's the funny thing: you whine that men are going to off themselves when they are not longer able to acquire any of that funny-money that you seem to think is useless, and you whine when men are suddenly faced with actually having to WORK for a living when other nations stop accepting our funny-money.

So what, exactly, are you complaining about?

Quote:

SIGNY: Why would the elite kill off a bunch of people? Has it not occurred to you that the elite want an entire WORLD full of desperately poor people who have no control over their future? Maybe their idea of heaven is billions of people in such miserable conditions that they're willing to do ANYthing ... sell their kidneys, their hearts, their babies ... to extend the lives of the elite. Yanno, their idea of heaven could be our idea of hell.

SIX: Overpopulation. It is the real crisis of the 21st century.

FOR WHO? Not for the wealthy elite! They'll still have their chateaux in the mountains, and their provate island retreats and, if worse comes to worst, their bunkers in New Zealand. You seem to think the wealthy envision sharing a common future with the rest of us, when their entire life experience have told them no such thing.

Quote:

SIX: Maybe the plan is to catalyze en-masse suicide. Then the media can say that they did it to themselves.
Hmm... I don't think the elite worry over-much abou the morality of killing a million ... or a billion... people. I just don'tthink they'd bother with "overpopulation" as a problem. It's only a problem if you imagine that YOU'RE going to be in the scrum, fighting for resources.

Quote:

SIGNY: And here I am, telling them that they should get up off their asses, step away from whatever screen they're looking at, and MAKE themselves essential. Take back control of government and economic policy. Stop begging for "more of the same but worse" and start working towards something better.

SIX: And how exactly do you make yourself "essential"?

There's too many people. That is impossible. We're a world of consumers.

Every consumer needs a producer. It is possible to be both.

Quote:

If consumerism dies after this, than so does the purpose of half of the human beings on the planet.
I thought the purpose of most humans is to live.

Not to be too pointed about it, but you've mentioned suicide so many times I'm beginning to worry that you've got suicidal ideation. You OK, SIX?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 7:35 AM

THG


T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.


Biden Blasts Mask-Averse Trump as A 'Fool' As U.S. Deaths Near 100,000


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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:22 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


As horrifying as it is, by November 2020 the 100,000 COIVD-19 milestone will be lightyears in the rearview mirror and beyond moot. I hope you're not counting on it the get Biden elected.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:28 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Your US death numbers for the Coomph are bullshit Signy.

Until you can admit that, we have nothing further to discuss on the topic.

Do Right, Be Right. :)



So, SPEAKING OF BULLSHIT NUMBERS...

WHAT ABOUT THAT 4TH GRADE ARITHMETIC PROBLEM THAT YOU'VE BEEN AVOIDING, SIX?

YOU KNOW ...

327 MILLION * 0.4 (OR 0.3, IF YOU WANT TO BE CONSERVATIVE) INFECTION FATALITY RATE?

HOW MUCH WAS THAT, AGAIN?

500.000?





-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK




I don't understand your math question here.

Are you actually alleging that The Coomph will kill 40% of the people that get it now? Is that how far into fantasy land we've drifted now?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:39 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Signy forgot to add the % symbol

AND

your math is still wrong.

When YOU looked at the 0.004 CDC figure YOU thought it meant 0.004% .

IT DOESN'T.

It meant 0.004 FRACTION. Or,for those who can read, 0.4%


So try your math again and tell me - does 325M * 0.4% = 500,000?





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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:40 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Signy forgot to add the % symbol

AND

your math is still wrong.

When YOU looked at the 0.004 CDC figure YOU thought it meant 0.004% .

IT DOESN'T.

It meant 0.004 FRACTION. Or, for those who can read and do simple math, 0.4%


So try your math again and tell me - does 325M * 0.4% = 500,000 like you ... HA HA HA HA HA HA HA ha ha ha ha ... ... figure?

'Cause if you think so, your problem goes beyond mere stupid.









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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:45 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Here's the funny thing: you whine that men are going to off themselves when they are not longer able to acquire any of that funny-money that you seem to think is useless, and you whine when men are suddenly faced with actually having to WORK for a living when other nations stop accepting our funny-money.

So what, exactly, are you complaining about?



Go back to work doing WHAT?

There are now 35 million more people unemployed that have been told for 60 days that they were unessential. How many of those jobs do you think are going to come back? Maybe half of them if we're lucky.

Where are these magic jobs going to come from?

Quote:

FOR WHO? Not for the wealthy elite! They'll still have their chateaux in the mountains, and their provate island retreats and, if worse comes to worst, their bunkers in New Zealand. You seem to think the wealthy envision sharing a common future with the rest of us, when their entire life experience have told them no such thing.


You seem to be putting a much larger importance on money backed by paper than you should be.

Do you believe that the wealthy elite all agree with each other that global warming isn't real and that we haven't contributed to it? Or a more accurate question is, do you believe that 100% of the wealthy elite are so absolutely certain that global warming isn't real and we don't contribute to it that they're willing to risk allowing our severe overpopulation problem along with our ever increasing carbon footprint to grow unchecked so they can have more slaves?

I mean, really... How many slaves are enough? Where's the ROI on having 7 Billion slaves when half of them are "non-essential"? That's not very Six Sigma.

That's an extra 3.5 Billion mouths to feed that don't need to be fed. An extra 3.5 Billion people polluting the air and the environment. An extra 3.5 Billion people that need to be housed. An extra 3.5 Billion people that need just enough shit that they don't start burning everything down.

From a managerial aspect, there's no benefit to having that many people. If there were half as many people, it's twice as easy to keep them happy enough where the idea of revolt isn't in all of their heads 24/7.

Under the right circumstances, it's possible to have a few billion slaves who find their existances copacetic enough that they don't even really feel like they are slaves. Under those circumstances, the majority would likely argue against the more intelligent that they aren't slaves.

Quote:

Hmm... I don't think the elite worry over-much abou the morality of killing a million ... or a billion... people. I just don'tthink they'd bother with "overpopulation" as a problem. It's only a problem if you imagine that YOU'RE going to be in the scrum, fighting for resources.


Boy... have you been coming off as an elitist yourself recently. Must be nice in those cushy California digs you got with your cushy retirement accounts and health insurance.

Quote:

Every consumer needs a producer. It is possible to be both.


You're forgetting halfway through your post that 35 million people in America alone have just been told that what they do is non-essential. And you offer zero ideas for job replacement for them.

It's impossible to have a conversation with you because you're changing your argument every time you break my post up to reply to me.

Quote:

I thought the purpose of most humans is to live.


The chief goal of living, is not to merely stay alive. ~Mike Rowe



Quote:

Not to be too pointed about it, but you've mentioned suicide so many times I'm beginning to worry that you've got suicidal ideation. You OK, SIX?



Nah. I already got all of that out of my system.

I told you and Karen before that I've been through all of this and you're all living in my world now.

But I'm far more in touch with your average citizen than you could ever possibly be with your Karen problems in the middle of Karenfornia.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 10:48 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Signy forgot to add the % symbol

AND

your math is still wrong.

When YOU looked at the 0.004 CDC figure YOU thought it meant 0.004% .

IT DOESN'T.

It meant 0.004 FRACTION. Or, for those who can read and do simple math, 0.4%


So try your math again and tell me - does 325M * 0.4% = 500,000 like you ... HA HA HA HA HA HA HA ha ha ha ha ... ... figure?

'Cause if you think so, your problem goes beyond mere stupid.




ETA: Now tell us all again that you're 'always' right.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:00 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Just making sure you don't bury this under the pile of shit you're posting.

Signy forgot to add the % symbol

AND

your math is still wrong.

When YOU looked at the 0.004 CDC figure YOU thought it meant 0.004% .

IT DOESN'T.

It meant 0.004 FRACTION. Or, for those who can read and do simple math, 0.4%


So try your math again and tell me - does 325M * 0.4% = 500,000 like you ... HA HA HA HA HA HA HA ha ha ha ha ... ... figure?

'Cause if you think so, your problem goes beyond mere stupid.




ETA: Now tell us all again that you're *ALWAYS* right.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 11:35 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Signy forgot to add the % symbol

AND

your math is still wrong.

When YOU looked at the 0.004 CDC figure YOU thought it meant 0.004% .

IT DOESN'T.

It meant 0.004 FRACTION. Or, for those who can read and do simple math, 0.4%


So try your math again and tell me - does 325M * 0.4% = 500,000 like you ... HA HA HA HA HA HA HA ha ha ha ha ... ... figure?

'Cause if you think so, your problem goes beyond mere stupid.









Yes, my apologies, I knew it was "percent" so thoroughly that I forget to write down the symbol, but when I did the calculation I automatically onverted it to 0.004 (or 0.003)

So, have you figured out that number yet, SIX?

It's close to ONE MILLION. That's what I've been saying all along: hundreds of thousands to millions* Because I KNEW that the reported fatality rate was too high (because of lack of representative population sampling) and I divided the apparent "case fatality rate" by ten, and once the three serology studies came out I had an actual infection rate to look at.

The figures YOU accept, the ones that YOU say demonstrates that this virus is "no worse than a cold" would lead to ONE MILLION DEATHS in the USA in YOUR scenario.

Just try to get a sense of proportionality about this, SIX. At least understand what order of magnitude you're dealing with: Automobile accidents account for about 35,000 deaths per year. Flu deaths for an estimated 20,000-50,000 in most years. Colds? Wow, how many people die of a cold each year? Ten? I don't think that even registers in the "top twenty-five".

Now, I realize that this virus may play out over more than a year. It might be like the Spansh Flu which came in three waves over a year-and-a-half. So let's say its 500,000 per year. Do you like that figure better? Still "no worse than a cold"? Still fewer deaths than car accidents?

Let's get to your "death overcounts".

When older people die, there are almost always contributing factors. Systems are weak, and when one system fails it tends to push other systems over the edge. So let's say you got kidney failure. Fluid builds up, and then you get fluid in your lungs. Then your heart has to pump harder, and eventually gives out. What did you die of? Kidney failure? Respiratory failure? Heart failure?

When a person who is stable but has weakened systems ... say, a heart that isn't strong ... gets Covid-19, it sets off a chain reaction. Blood clots in the lungs, the heart has to pump harder to push blood through clotted lung capillaries. Oxygen saturation levels fall and make the heart work harder. Eventually the heart give out. What did they die of? Heart failure?

True, they may have had some pre-existing conditions, but chances are they would have lived another ELEVEN YEARS, on the average, before Covid-19 pushed them over the edge.

If you count ANY death that occurs along with a positive Covid-19 test as a Covid death, you will probably have a few overcounts. Say, someone fell off a ladder and died. (Hmm... otoh. Covid-19 causes such "unfelt" depletion of blood O2 that it can cause people to pass out unexpectedly, so it may be a contributing factor to car accidents and ladder accidents ... but I digress). Let's assume there are some overcounts where a Covid infection played absolutely NO ROLE in someone's death.

OTOH there are also undercounts. People may never have been tested, especially in the early days, or their RNA tests may have come back as false negative because sometimes it's pretty hard to capture that darn virus for testing when people are alive (it may have moved beyond their nose and throat and into their lungs) and I don't think all deaths are tested for viral fragments post-mortem.

"Excess deaths" seem to indicate that there is more under-reporting than over-reporting.

But's let's assume for the sake of argument that what's blowing up YOUR head is that terrible excessive over-counting. According to YOUR link, it might be by "AS MUCH AS" 25%. So, knock 25% off whatever official figure you see. We're at at lest 75,000 cn counting. STILL higher than auto accidents, STILL higher than "the flu" and DEFINITELY higher than "a cold",

You're just beyond ignorant at this point, SIX. You have an agenda that makes it literally impossible for you to see and accept reality, or to even do simple math.

Back to our previous discussion ....



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Wednesday, May 27, 2020 12:29 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNY: Here's the funny thing: you whine that men are going to off themselves when they are not longer able to acquire any of that funny-money that you seem to think is useless, and you whine when men are suddenly faced with actually having to WORK for a living when other nations stop accepting our funny-money.

So what, exactly, are you complaining about?

SIX: Go back to work doing WHAT

Maybe they have to get out a shovel and rake and do something essential like grow/raise their own food (for anyone with a backyard. 67% of the population lives in rural or suburban situation) because, I don't know about you but eating seems pretty essential. Maybe they exchange tasks like "I'll make or repair your clothes if you fix my car". Maybe they hire themselves out to agricultural giants to lay irrigation pipe or pick berries. Maybe become your neighborhood EMT and get paid in chickens. Or you take care of someone's granny while THEY go out and earn some cash. Small engine repair. Hard work, not much reward. What did people do in the Great Depression? Whatever it took.

YOU have land, do you not? Grow a garden, raise some chickens. YOU'VE got a house that you say is too big for you, do you not? Rent a room!

Stop whining.

This has to do with who owns the "means of production" ... the factories and steel mills and chemical plants and land ... until we have wrenched those back from the elite and start manufacturing again we will be forced to live at a subsistence level using the few tools at our disposal. There aren't many real jobs out there. Until we start manufacturing again, it's going to be tough.

Quote:

There are now 35 million more people unemployed that have been told for 60 days that they were unessential. How many of those jobs do you think are going to come back? Maybe half of them if we're lucky.
Why are you hoping for all of these non-essential jobs to come back? Do you LIKE getting paid shit for shit jobs?

Quote:

SIX: Where are these magic jobs going to come from?
I would especially like to see "banker", "internet mogul", "financial analyst", "investment advisor", "internet influencer", "greeter" and "barrista" disappear.

Quote:

SIGNY: FOR WHO? Not for the wealthy elite! They'll still have their chateaux in the mountains, and their private island retreats and, if worse comes to worst, their bunkers in New Zealand. You seem to think the wealthy envision sharing a common future with the rest of us, when their entire life experience have told them no such thing.

SIX: You seem to be putting a much larger importance on money backed by paper than you should be.

Not at all. I think the dollar (specifically) is going to crash because there is little of real value backing it up. But the wealthy DO own real assets.

Quote:

SIX: Do you believe that the wealthy elite all agree with each other that global warming isn't real and that we haven't contributed to it? Or a more accurate question is, do you believe that 100% of the wealthy elite are so absolutely certain that global warming isn't real and we don't contribute to it that they're willing to risk allowing our severe overpopulation problem along with our ever increasing carbon footprint to grow unchecked so they can have more slaves?

I mean, really... How many slaves are enough? Where's the ROI on having 7 Billion slaves when half of them are "non-essential"? That's not very Six Sigma.

I think they really don't give us all that much thought, except for (1) how we can be exploited and (2) whether we form a security threat to them. How much do you think about grasshoppers? That's about how much we are thought of. We live in our world and they live in theirs until they need to use us, or we form a threat.

Quote:

That's an extra 3.5 Billion mouths to feed that don't need to be fed. An extra 3.5 Billion people polluting the air and the environment. An extra 3.5 Billion people that need to be housed.
Which "they" have no interest in doing! Do you think "they" feed and house us?

Quote:

SIX: An extra 3.5 Billion people that need just enough shit that they don't start burning everything down.
That is one of the two times that "they" think about us.

Quote:

SIX: From a managerial aspect, there's no benefit to having that many people. If there were half as many people, it's twice as easy to keep them happy enough where the idea of revolt isn't in all of their heads 24/7.
Again, you think that they "manage" the situation. They don't. They exploit it. They do just enough ... by pitting religions against religions, nations against nations, colors against colors, gender against gender, young against old ... by promoting the narrative that you too could be a success ... by distorting presentation of the real world in the media ... by hiding ... by doling out "just enough" ... by lending fake money in return for real work .... by using the myth of democracy ... to keep things from exploding. And if worse comes to worst, the police and the troops and mercs and spooks come out.

Quote:

SIX: Under the right circumstances, it's possible to have a few billion slaves who find their existences copacetic enough that they don't even really feel like they are slaves. Under those circumstances, the majority would likely argue against the more intelligent that they aren't slaves.
The political stability of the United States has been the creation and maintenance of the middle class ... which has been disappearing at steady clip since about the '90s.

The reason why our politics are so fraught and polarized isn't because of all the usual suspects, but because people's real prospects are being dimmed year by year. The genius of the elite is to make blacks think that the problem is whites (and vice versa), or to make men (or women) see each other as the enemy, or to pit te old against the young.

Quote:

SIGNY: Hmm... I don't think the elite worry over-much abou the morality of killing a million ... or a billion... people. I just don't think they'd bother with "overpopulation" as a problem. It's only a problem if you imagine that YOU'RE going to be in the scrum, fighting for resources.

SIX: Boy... have you been coming off as an elitist yourself recently. Must be nice in those cushy California digs you got with your cushy retirement accounts and health insurance.

No, SIX,I'm just trying to explain what THEY think. There's no safety net for me or our daughter.

Let me explain: I'm not in Social Security. As condition of employment I was required to contribute to a pension plan. And since government paper and banks are paying such low-low interest rates, what do pension plans invest it? STOCKS. REITS. One of these days, that's going to crash.

What about cash? Well,if banks get wobbly enough they will invoked the "bail in" procedure, that is ... they take your savings (which are considered by the bank and the regulators to be an unsecured loan to the bank) and give you "bank stocks" of unknown value in return. Or the Fed (a private banking institution, not to be confused with the Federal government) and the Federal government use the MMT (magic money tree) to "stimulate" the economy and the dollar gets inflated away.

Gold? Hmmm... that's been confiscated before!

Medicare? I'll be lucky if it doesn't go broke in five years.

I'm not the person deciding what's going to happen! My future and our daughter's future is a lot like YOUR future. There's not much separating us. It's a world of insecurity.

Quote:

SIGNY: Every consumer needs a producer. It is possible to be both.

SIX: You're forgetting halfway through your post that 35 million people in America alone have just been told that what they do is non-essential. And you offer zero ideas for job replacement for them. It's impossible to have a conversation with you because you're changing your argument every time you break my post up to reply to me.

I've already mentioned several jobs that will become essential, and - as I said- the problem is who owns and controls the means of production, including who owns and controls the production of money (banks, The Fed). Until WE can decide to put up steel mill or a textile plant or a pharma manufacturing plant, we'll be stuck with the crumbs.


Quote:

SIGNY: Not to be too pointed about it, but you've mentioned suicide so many times I'm beginning to worry that you've got suicidal ideation. You OK, SIX?

SIX: Nah. I already got all of that out of my system.
I told you and Karen before that I've been through all of this and you're all living in my world now.

What world is that? A world of fear and denial? A world without "out of the box" thinking? A world so narrow and constricted that ordinary people are pitted against ordinary people?

Quote:

SIX:But I'm far more in touch with your average citizen than you could ever possibly be with your Karen problems in the middle of Karenfornia.
STOP BEING AVERAGE. The elite are COUNTING on you, and everyone, to be average.

Jeez!

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Thursday, May 28, 2020 6:59 AM

THG


T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.


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Thursday, May 28, 2020 9:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Okay. So... I'm done with these insanely long posts that we need to spend far too much time formatting, since all they do is serve to end up with us both talking over and/or past each other.

So I'm going to try something different now and only reply to 1 or 2 points. From there, you can reply to this post or bring up another point you had. I'm not going to spend an hour replying to a post that has 15 points on it anymore, since the longer this goes on the more obscene that gets.

Here it goes...

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Why are you hoping for all of these non-essential jobs to come back? Do you LIKE getting paid shit for shit jobs?



A few points I should make to this question:

1. What is essential and non-essential is highly subjective. A perfect example would be the smoke shop run by the only Indian guy I ever see in my area. His prices are fair and he's earned my loyalty. Our governor shut his store and likely his entire livelihood down. In the mean time, I've been perfectly free to order the products online, which I'm sure was something that was already killing his business before the shutdown happened.

2. We've already discussed overpopulation and how it relates to jobs years ago. I've already known that most of our existences, particularly through our vocation, are superfluous and said as much back then. This is new news to 35 million or so Americans.

3. I'd bet that if you looked into what jobs are still deemed essential, 25% of them are still minimum wage shit jobs, and more than 50% of them pay less than $15 per hour, and it's very likely that most of them don't include benefits like health insurance. Even if they did, you still have to pay for the health insurance.

Point number 4 is the question I asked next but you didn't really answer...

Quote:

SIX: Where are these magic jobs going to come from?

SIGS: I would especially like to see "banker", "internet mogul", "financial analyst", "investment advisor", "internet influencer", "greeter" and "barrista" disappear.



Okay. Me too, if you want my opinion. But except for the short time Starbucks shut down, "barrista" was the only one out of work even in this shutdown. They might not actually be essential, but none of them were ever deemed non-essential. I'm sure if you asked any of them they would feel highly insulted if you insinuated that what they do for a living isn't essential, and the fact that they weren't put out of business by the government in the last 60 days would really be all the justification they'd need in their argument.

But seriously... Where are these magic essential jobs for 35 million Americans going to come from?

I'd love for the answer to be jobs upgrading and updating our crumbling and antiquated infrastructure. But who's going to pay for it?

And if the answer to that is "The Government", great!

But if that extremely unlikely scenario ever unfolds, I can't help but wonder exactly how far back in the queue I'm going to be as a white male. If this new Government Infrastructure Jobs Project were a train, I'm assuming I'd be sitting in the back of the caboose.

Just sayin.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, May 28, 2020 1:58 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Pity the poor white male who so cleverly made every wrong decision in its life, and so cleverly landed itself in its own little self-created hell. With a trainwreck of a life.

Your problem JACKshit, isn't being a white male, it's being so INSANELY entitled and resentful you've done everything opposite of what you had to do to make a good life for yourself. Because you shouldn't HAVE to go to college and get a worthwhile degree AND COMPETE WITH OVERSEAS CHEAP LABOR to get a good paying job like everyone else. You're too special for that.

So clever of you. So smart.


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Thursday, May 28, 2020 7:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Whatever, fag.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Thursday, May 28, 2020 11:17 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




Enjoy your 'brilliantly' done self-made hell!

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Thursday, May 28, 2020 11:35 PM

BRENDA


New Brunswick has had a outbreak at a health centre. The worker had just come back from Quebec and instead of self-isolating for 14 days they went back to work. 5 others are now infected because of this person's carelessness.

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Thursday, May 28, 2020 11:55 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me. It can linger at low levels forever in some places, but explode in others. I'm not sure epidemiologists have a handle on it, except in the crudest sense of grand averages over hundreds of thousands or millions. It seems the only answer until we know enough is for everyone to be careful for the sake of others.

But too many people are too ready to write off everyone but themselves and their own little demographic as not worth the inconvenience.

Sigh.


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Friday, May 29, 2020 12:53 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.



Nothing is clear to you.

You're a retard.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 29, 2020 2:10 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.


SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.


Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 29, 2020 2:26 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I ran across this at Moon of Alabama

Quote:

How Cluster Cases Drive The Covid Pandemic

One of the many mysteries of the Covid-19 pandemic is how the disease actually spreads. We were told to wash hands and about the dangers of droplets in one to one contacts. But newer evidence continues to point in another direction.

There are more and more reports about cases where the infections seems to have spread by aerosol, droplets smaller than 5µm in diameter, instead of by bigger droplets or fomites like surfaces and objects. Lambert Strether has collected reports of cluster cases in restaurants, buses, ships and a callcenter where aerosol transmission was the most likely cause:

There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key — perhaps the main — pathway to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe....

That paragraph is footnoted with a link to a WHO recommendation from March.

WHO has been corrupt since the beginning
Quote:

Since then much has been learned about cluster cases in which aerosols were the most likely transmitter of the disease.

Aerosols are droplets smaller than 5 micrometers. At that small size they do not fall to the ground but float in the airstream. Unlike droplets they are not a problem outside of closed rooms as the normal air movement will start to disperse them immediately.

A study in Hubei tracked down 318 cluster creating incidents in which at least 3 persons were involved. It found that only one happened in open air. A Japanese study says that the risk of infection indoors are 19 times higher than outdoors.

An early study has found that the secondary attack rate in households defined as "the probability that an infection occurs among susceptible people within a specific group (ie, household or close contacts)" is quite low at some 35%. Other studies have come to even lower values of some 25%. There were a number of reports of families where only one or two persons were infected while other members of the household did not catch the disease.

But the overall reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is estimated to be somewhere between 2 and 3. That means that without isolation measures each newly infected person will on average infect 2 to 3 other persons. How does that fit with the relatively low secondary infections in households?

Science has published a must read piece that explains this conundrum:

Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters. But COVID-19, like two of its cousins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), seems especially prone to attacking groups of tightly connected people while sparing others. It's an encouraging finding, scientists say, because it suggests that restricting gatherings where superspreading is likely to occur will have a major impact on transmission and that other restrictions—on outdoor activity, for example—might be eased.
...
Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don't spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”

That's why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Current estimates of the dispersion factor k for SARS-CoV-2 vary between 0.1 and 0.5. That means that cluster infections from relatively few superspreading events drive the epidemic more than single transmissions from one person to another person.


This explains the success of the Japanese strategy which brought the epidemic in that country down without ordering strict lockdown measures:

As of Thursday, Japan had confirmed more than 16,000 infections and about 900 deaths from the virus, by far the lowest figures among the Group of Seven major economies.

Japan has urged people to avoid environments with what it calls the “Three Cs”, meaning close contact in closed-off, crowded spaces, where experts say most infections have occurred.

Without knowing if the measures would work Japan picked the right strategy. Only those events and places where superspreading is most likely to occur where shunned. Additionally the people in Japan actually wear their masks and generally health conscious and disciplined.

I think masking plays a far larger role in limiting the spread than avoiding the "three C's".

Quote:

Unfortunately it is unlikely that 'western' nations will develop such discipline.

Yves Smith has written about her recent personal experience in a hospital in Alabama where even the staff was not wearing masks and was also otherwise quite careless. This at a time where numbers in Alabama are surging.

MORE AT https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/05/cluster-cases-drive-the-covid-pa
ndemic.html#more


So maybe there really ARE super-spreaders ... people who just shed and transmit viruses way more efficiently than anyone else.

So every time you have a LARGE group of people in relatively cramped indoor circumstances ... church, gym, sporting event, political rally, assisted living facility, military training, dance club etc ... not only do you increase the number of people potentially a risk, you also significantly raise the probability that a super-spreader will be among them.

That doesn't explain Los Angeles' steady incremental increase of infections and deaths, tho. I'm not privy to the details of Los Angeles' data, but - mostly- clusters have not been identified.




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 29, 2020 3:26 AM

BRENDA


This health care worker could also be looking at criminal charges.

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Friday, May 29, 2020 4:04 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.


SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.


Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK




Karen's been bouncing around from thread to thread, some not even related tot he virus, just to personally attack me.

I don't feel sorry. Even Wishy never stalked me like this when she was off her pills and at her worst. At this point I quite prefer dialog with Wish.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Friday, May 29, 2020 10:38 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

KIKI: How this virus moves in a population isn't clear to me.


SIX: Nothing is clear to you.
You're a retard.

SIGNY: Well, now we see that SIX can't carry on an intelligent discussion of viruses, so he has to call people names.

SIX: Karen's been bouncing around from thread to thread, some not even related tot he virus, just to personally attack me.

I don't feel sorry. Even Wishy never stalked me like this when she was off her pills and at her worst. At this point I quite prefer dialog with Wish.



OH POOR BABY!

Well, maybe if you hadn't CONTINUALLY LIED ABOUT HER in the first place, saying she was panicked about the virus, supported government control over everything, and constantly mischaracterizing her as a "Karen" ... which, from MY reading of her posts, she is not ... then you wouldn't have gotten such a bad reaction. Yanno, some people get really pissed when they're lied about and unjustly criticized, and she's one of them.

So yeah You started it. AND you kept it going in post after post, and THREAD AFTER THREAD, like you had turned into a GSTRING or something.

The ironic part? When KIKI says you bring NOTHING to the table: no data, no quotes, no links, not even any logic, but that you know JACKSHIT about the topic and are merely interested in denying facts and whining about your poor propects, she's not lying (unlike you) she's telling the truth. I've read your posts, SIX, and they're pure mental garbage, one big giant temper tantrum.

You could roll back the ill will by stop calling her a "Karen", especially since the whiniest bitch around here right now is YOU, Karen.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Friday, May 29, 2020 12:59 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Thanks! for this post, Signy! It clarifies, formulates, and expounds on an notion I had.

Way back when I supposed that perhaps NYC or other large outbreaks of COVID-19 were driven by exceptional events - I called them super super-spreaders - more likely found and exploited by the virus when there are large numbers of people --- and noticed only when a super super-spreader encounters a large naive population. A super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of tens of thousands in a large naive population; but that same super super-spreader may start a transmission chain of only 100 in a small community (where the chain of transmission would be damped out by either the statistical improbability of encountering another super super-spreader, or by the physically small number of a naive population that gets exposed.).

That would explain NYC, and the initial infection wave of the Diamond Princess.

And it explains further the fact that Mardi Gras sparked outbreaks in Louisiana, Detroit, Chicago, and several other places of returned revelers, which then damped out.

So I'll alter that and say that maybe large outbreaks are driven by one super super-spreader in very large gatherings like Grand Central Station, perhaps infecting other super super-spreaders.

But as you've noted, and which I've been puzzling over, that leaves California (specifically Los Angeles County), the prolonged transmission of the Diamond Princess, and the Navajo Nation unexplained.

Still, I thank you so much! for finding this and understanding the significance it seems to have in puzzling out how SARS-COV-2 moves through populations.

SARS-COV-2 seems to me to not move uniformly through a population, and its transmission has been puzzling me.


So THANK YOU!! so much again!

Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
I ran across this at Moon of Alabama

Quote:

How Cluster Cases Drive The Covid Pandemic

One of the many mysteries of the Covid-19 pandemic is how the disease actually spreads. We were told to wash hands and about the dangers of droplets in one to one contacts. But newer evidence continues to point in another direction.

There are more and more reports about cases where the infections seems to have spread by aerosol, droplets smaller than 5µm in diameter, instead of by bigger droplets or fomites like surfaces and objects. Lambert Strether has collected reports of cluster cases in restaurants, buses, ships and a callcenter where aerosol transmission was the most likely cause:

There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key — perhaps the main — pathway to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe....

That paragraph is footnoted with a link to a WHO recommendation from March.

WHO has been corrupt since the beginning
Quote:

Since then much has been learned about cluster cases in which aerosols were the most likely transmitter of the disease.

Aerosols are droplets smaller than 5 micrometers. At that small size they do not fall to the ground but float in the airstream. Unlike droplets they are not a problem outside of closed rooms as the normal air movement will start to disperse them immediately.

A study in Hubei tracked down 318 cluster creating incidents in which at least 3 persons were involved. It found that only one happened in open air. A Japanese study says that the risk of infection indoors are 19 times higher than outdoors.

An early study has found that the secondary attack rate in households defined as "the probability that an infection occurs among susceptible people within a specific group (ie, household or close contacts)" is quite low at some 35%. Other studies have come to even lower values of some 25%. There were a number of reports of families where only one or two persons were infected while other members of the household did not catch the disease.

But the overall reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is estimated to be somewhere between 2 and 3. That means that without isolation measures each newly infected person will on average infect 2 to 3 other persons. How does that fit with the relatively low secondary infections in households?

Science has published a must read piece that explains this conundrum:

Other infectious diseases also spread in clusters. But COVID-19, like two of its cousins, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), seems especially prone to attacking groups of tightly connected people while sparing others. It's an encouraging finding, scientists say, because it suggests that restricting gatherings where superspreading is likely to occur will have a major impact on transmission and that other restrictions—on outdoor activity, for example—might be eased.
...
Most of the discussion around the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has concentrated on the average number of new infections caused by each patient. Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three. But in real life, some people infect many others and others don't spread the disease at all. In fact, the latter is the norm, Lloyd-Smith says: “The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.”

That's why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.

Current estimates of the dispersion factor k for SARS-CoV-2 vary between 0.1 and 0.5. That means that cluster infections from relatively few superspreading events drive the epidemic more than single transmissions from one person to another person.


This explains the success of the Japanese strategy which brought the epidemic in that country down without ordering strict lockdown measures:

As of Thursday, Japan had confirmed more than 16,000 infections and about 900 deaths from the virus, by far the lowest figures among the Group of Seven major economies.

Japan has urged people to avoid environments with what it calls the “Three Cs”, meaning close contact in closed-off, crowded spaces, where experts say most infections have occurred.

Without knowing if the measures would work Japan picked the right strategy. Only those events and places where superspreading is most likely to occur where shunned. Additionally the people in Japan actually wear their masks and generally health conscious and disciplined.

I think masking plays a far larger role in limiting the spread than avoiding the "three C's".

Quote:

Unfortunately it is unlikely that 'western' nations will develop such discipline.

Yves Smith has written about her recent personal experience in a hospital in Alabama where even the staff was not wearing masks and was also otherwise quite careless. This at a time where numbers in Alabama are surging.

MORE AT https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/05/cluster-cases-drive-the-covid-pa
ndemic.html#more


So maybe there really ARE super-spreaders ... people who just shed and transmit viruses way more efficiently than anyone else.

So every time you have a LARGE group of people in relatively cramped indoor circumstances ... church, gym, sporting event, political rally, assisted living facility, military training, dance club etc ... not only do you increase the number of people potentially a risk, you also significantly raise the probability that a super-spreader will be among them.

That doesn't explain Los Angeles' steady incremental increase of infections and deaths, tho. I'm not privy to the details of Los Angeles' data, but - mostly- clusters have not been identified.




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

re posting this in new deadly ... thread

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Friday, May 29, 2020 1:41 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:

But as you've noted, and which I've been puzzling over, that leaves California (specifically Los Angeles County), the prolonged transmission of the Diamond Princess, and the Navajo Nation unexplained.




To me the Diamond Princess was a giant incubator because people inspite of "isolation" where still close to one another.

As to the Navajo, people move off and on the reserves for work and medical treatment. Also they live in generational housing. Grandparents, aunts, uncles, parents and children.

Also the real kicker is even though the Navajo fund their own schools and police this is done by the tribal councils. Reservations are FEDERAL land and guess what it is hard to have proper sanitation without any running water.
There are wells for families and only in the medical facilities and I would hope the schools and maybe any stores on the reserves have the privilege of running water.




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Friday, May 29, 2020 6:04 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Thank you so much for your information, Brenda.

But it's sad information, to be sure.

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Friday, May 29, 2020 11:43 PM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Thank you so much for your information, Brenda.

But it's sad information, to be sure.



It is sad. Now, you see why I get angry with your federal government and state governments for how they've handled what is happening on the reserves.

A congresswoman from New Mexico by the name of Deb Haaglad who is a member of the Laguna Pueblo, wanted I believe in one stimulus package between 22 to 40 million for "Indian Country". The Democrats were fighting for this and all the Republicans could scrounge up was 8.4 million. I listened to this lady do an interview on CNN over a month ago. And I know most of you don't like CNN but they at least cover what is happening. It's that or the internet for me to know. I should also mention that Trump wanted $0 to go to Indian Country.

All reserves are Federal land that was given to us and by "us", I mean all the tribes in the US by treaty. "For as long as the grass grows, the wind blows and the rivers flow."

Another piece of news from down there and this is also over a month old now was Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota was demanding then threatening legal action against several bands of the Dakota nation. These bands had put up Covid-19 check points on the roads leading onto their reserves. They were trying to protect their own people. Main highways can go through reserve lands as short cuts. They were stopping cars and if they weren't tribe members, they were asked to turn around.

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 1:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


My relationship with the First Nations is pretty tenuous. I might have mentioned that after I graduated, the very first interview I had for my very first real full time job was at the Navajo reservation hospital in Ganado. I did turn down the job because they wanted a 5 year commitment on the reservation, and it was so different and unimaginable to me that I wasn't sure I had 5 years in me.

But that sparked a lifelong curiosity. I always want to know more.

And I'm sorry to know that people are struggling there and on many reservations with COIVD-19.

There are so many historic and current-day injustices against the First Nations. It would take a lifetime to even right one of them. That's why I still stand in awe of the Canadian legal system, and the creation of Nunavut.

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 1:17 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Hmmmmm.....

Leveling off, huh?

No insane spike in deaths and some terrible 2nd wave that is going to be the end of the world?



The country gives a collective yawn and turns their attention from The Coomph and instead focuses on the fires raging in Minneapolis, and by election day this will be buried under dozens of new stories and they won't even remember the shutdown was a thing.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 1:58 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Quote:

More fact-free sh*t flinging from JACK, with the ironic coda at the end.
Do Right, Be Right. :)



fify

Nope, still going up briskly everywhere but Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, and Vermont. And of those only Hawaii and Montana really look like it's almost leveled off (not adding new cases every day to the current total).

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/




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Saturday, May 30, 2020 3:43 AM

BRENDA


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
My relationship with the First Nations is pretty tenuous. I might have mentioned that after I graduated, the very first interview I had for my very first real full time job was at the Navajo reservation hospital in Ganado. I did turn down the job because they wanted a 5 year commitment on the reservation, and it was so different and unimaginable to me that I wasn't sure I had 5 years in me.

But that sparked a lifelong curiosity. I always want to know more.

And I'm sorry to know that people are struggling there and on many reservations with COIVD-19.

There are so many historic and current-day injustices against the First Nations. It would take a lifetime to even right one of them. That's why I still stand in awe of the Canadian legal system, and the creation of Nunavut.



I find that unless you know Native Americans or First Nations or are part Native American or First Nations, that most people don't.

We're a less visible minority down there than in Canada.

Don't I know about the historic and current day injustices. I grew up with so many historical stories from the US.

Canada's not perfect but at least Ottawa tries and I do give them credit for that. Ottawa right now is working on deals to help on reservations across Canada.

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 3:48 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


SWEDEN IS #1!

In new deaths per day per million, that is!

It's a position to be proud of, I'm sure.

But, not to worry: Brazil (another "do nothing" nation) is pulling up fast and making a strong bid to take the lead!



-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 9:34 AM

THG


T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.


TRUMPTWITTER AND CORONAVIRUS

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Saturday, May 30, 2020 10:01 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You're demented.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, May 31, 2020 8:20 AM

THG


T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.


100 000 DEAD


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Sunday, May 31, 2020 9:09 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


You're DAYS late on that number, Ted.

And the number is bullshit anyway.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, June 1, 2020 10:03 AM

JO753

rezident owtsidr

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Monday, June 1, 2020 10:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Let's get Elon Musk on the phone and send The Coomph to space.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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