REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The non-existent Trump economic miracle.

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Saturday, October 31, 2020 13:45
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Saturday, October 24, 2020 3:47 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Both of those ranges, including the range you claim is the Mode are vastly monopolized by unemployed who earned a few minutes of hours of work...A more reasonable usage of data might be to use the cut-off of $15,080 as being unemployed.
This would have 114.7 million people earning a total of $19.618 Trillion, for an average of $171,000.

What you are arguing for is a change in definition of "unemployed/employed". The current definition of "employed" means anyone who has earned ANYTHING in the past month, no matter how trivial. YOU would move those people over to the "unemployed" category even tho they are not receiving unemployment benefits.

For what purpose or benefit is this re-catagorization, other than to artificially raise the apparent wage curve? Are those minimally-employed people in reality any wealthier? Is the population as a whole better off after you've fudged the numbers to look better? Aren't you simply trying to bolster your claim that Trump created some sort of "economic miracle" with phony statistics?

MOST people are working meaningless jobs for a few hours a week, for low pay. You seem to be trying to goose your numbers into acceptability.

But it is what it is, dood, no matter how you turn those definitions around.

A lot... and, I mean a LOT... more needs to be done. About 7.5 MILLION manufacturing jobs were lost since 1980. Unless something happens to bring a few MILLION of those jobs back, I'm not holding my breath for that "miracle".

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/beyond-bls/the-fall-of-employment-in
-the-manufacturing-sector.htm




-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 6:32 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:

SECOND - So it's the official democratic position to focus exclusively on the minimum wage as their pretense of 'caring' about workers, even though it'll help only 1.1% of all wage workers (1.9% of all hourly workers, which are only 58.1% of all hourly plus wage workers)?

The Democratic Party Platform is https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/

The GOP has said it will prevent every item in that platform from becoming law.

Look at the headings, 1kiki, at
https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/building-a-stronge
r-fairer-economy
/.

Protecting Workers and Families and Creating Millions of Jobs Across America

Raising Wages and Promoting Workers’ Rights

Enacting Robust Work-Family Policies

Investing in the Engines of Job Creation

etc. etc.

The GOP will fight against all of it.

Or, 1kiki, look at entire paragraphs: The United States is alone among advanced economies in guaranteeing neither paid sick leave nor paid family leave for all workers. This puts excessive burdens on working families, and especially working mothers, even in the best of times, and is catastrophic for public health in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Democrats will implement paid sick days and a high-quality, comprehensive, and inclusive paid family and medical leave system that protects workers from the unfair choice between attending to urgent health or caretaking needs and earning a paycheck. We will fight to ensure workers are guaranteed at least 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave for all workers and family units, to enable new parents to recover from childbirth and bond with their newborns, foster or adopted children, and allow all workers to take extended time off to care for themselves or ailing loved ones.

Wherever you look, 1kiki, the GOP will be opposed to it all. Especially this section:
"ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL, AFFORDABLE, QUALITY HEALTH CARE"
https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/achieving-universa
l-affordable-quality-health-care
/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 8:42 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
A more reasonable usage of data might be to use the cut-off of $15,080 as being unemployed.



That settles it then.

I've been unemployed since December of 2009.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 8:54 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
The problem with raising the minimum wage is that it will encourage businesses to automate jobs out of existence.

Unless there is a government commitment to full and meaningful employment (has to be government, business always wants to reduce expenses and in the long run that means getting rid of employees) including a commitment to industrial production, you will just be rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK




They don't need a higher minimum wage to use as an excuse for that now.

3 of the 4 jobs I was laid off from were either from automation, or just straight up reduction of work force which entailed making everybody who stick around work like dogs to keep their shitty job. (Something which they know full well they can get away with in even the best days of our shitty labor market in the last 20 years).

Raise the minimum wage to $15 overnight and you're going to see millions of extra jobs shed within a year.

They can probably manage to do it without the cost of goods being raised too much, but if you thought you had a hard time finding an employee to assist you in the stores now, just wait until the minimum wage gets hiked to more than double of what it is today.

That's also not to mention how many small businesses, particularly restaurants who operate on a razor thin budget already, will go out of business.




But I get the argument though...

25 years ago, minimum wage jobs were for kids and nearly exclusively were held by kids. Now that I've been working them again during the last 10 years, seeing a kid working one is the exception to the rule. The last job I had, most of the adults working it also had a 2nd or even a 3rd job to pay all the bills.

I can't imagine a life where you had to work an 8 hour shift at one thankless job only to get in your car and drive your sad ass to another one before you could go home and sleep. :(



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 10:25 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

Raise the minimum wage to $15 overnight and you're going to see millions of extra jobs shed within a year.

They can probably manage to do it without the cost of goods being raised too much, but if you thought you had a hard time finding an employee to assist you in the stores now, just wait until the minimum wage gets hiked to more than double of what it is today.

That's also not to mention how many small businesses, particularly restaurants who operate on a razor thin budget already, will go out of business.

But I get the argument though...

25 years ago, minimum wage jobs were for kids and nearly exclusively were held by kids. Now that I've been working them again during the last 10 years, seeing a kid working one is the exception to the rule. The last job I had, most of the adults working it also had a 2nd or even a 3rd job to pay all the bills.

I can't imagine a life where you had to work an 8 hour shift at one thankless job only to get in your car and drive your sad ass to another one before you could go home and sleep. :(

You sound precisely the same as a Texas Republican businessman arguing against raising the minimum wage. Just shut the hell up and raise the wage, then see what happens. Remember the story about the business owner who raised minimum wages to $70,000? I heard a thousand times from idiotic and rich Republicans (and some Democrats who weren't any better informed than Rush Limbaugh) that the business would fail because it doesn't give all the rewards for success to the business owner. Instead, it prospered.
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-51332811

Run the experiment. Raise the wage to $15/hour. Or run the reverse, which we actually have been doing for years because of inflation, and lower the minimum wage. We already know what happens. You can see the bad results everywhere you look in Texas.

Some American Corporations have raised the minimum, but have not tried in the US
www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/opinion/sunday/us-denmark-economy.html

Starting pay for the humblest burger-flipper at McDonald’s in Denmark is about $22 an hour once various pay supplements are included. The McDonald’s workers in Denmark get six weeks of paid vacation a year, life insurance, a year’s paid maternity leave and a pension plan. And like all Danes, they enjoy universal medical insurance and paid sick leave.

One reason Denmark was more effective than the United States in responding to the crisis is that no Dane hesitated to seek treatment because of concerns about medical bills.

Abu Sayeed knew that Americans working in fast food don’t do so well. “I heard about the movement,” he said, trying to remember its name. “Fight for something. Fight for $20? What was it?”

“Fight for $15,” I explained. “They want $15 an hour.”

There was an awkward silence. He nodded sympathetically. Then he tried not to sound condescending.

“I feel for them,” he said earnestly of American workers at McDonald’s. “We are from the same brand.”

Some American companies scoff that a $15 minimum wage or stronger unions would be a disastrous blow to business. Denmark challenges that narrative, for it shows that it’s possible to have a thriving economy that pays workers decently and treats them respectfully.

Workers get their schedules a month in advance, and they can’t be assigned back-to-back shifts. American politicians speak solemnly about the dignity of work, but you’re more likely to find it in Copenhagen than in New York.

This wasn’t always so. The golden age of American capitalism, from 1945 to 1980, was a period of high tax rates (up to 91 percent for the very wealthy), strong labor unions and huge initiatives, such as the G.I. Bill of Rights to help disadvantaged (albeit mostly white) Americans. This was a period of rapid growth in which income inequality declined — and in some ways it looked like today’s Denmark.

One Republican strategy this year has been to demonize Democrats as socialists who would destroy the economy. Trump warns that Democrats “want to model America’s economy after Venezuela.”

Well, no. In fact, what liberal Democrats have in mind is a step in the direction of the Nordic model found in Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland. But paradoxically, while Americans on both left and right often think of Scandinavia as quasi-socialist, Scandinavians flinch at that characterization. They see themselves as simply pursuing market economies, just with higher taxes and greater social benefits than the United States.

Danes pay an extra 19 cents of every dollar in taxes, compared with Americans, but for that they get free health care, free education from kindergarten through college, subsidized high-quality preschool, a very strong social safety net and very low levels of poverty, homelessness, crime and inequality. On average, Danes live two years longer than Americans.

A Big Mac flipped by $22-an-hour workers isn’t even that much more expensive than an American one. Big Mac prices vary by outlet, but my spot pricing suggested that one might cost about 27 cents more on average in Denmark than in the United States. That 27 cents is the price of dignity.


Americans might suspect that the Danish safety net encourages laziness. But 79 percent of Danes ages 16 to 64 are in the labor force, five percentage points higher than in the United States.

Danes earn about the same after-tax income as Americans, even though they work on average 22 percent fewer hours; on the other hand, money doesn’t go as far in Denmark because prices average 18 percent higher. My own rough guess is that the top quarter of earners live better in America, but that the bottom three-quarters live better in Denmark.

Indeed, polls find that Danes are among the world’s happiest people, along with Finns; Denmark is sometimes called “the happiest country.”

You can agree or disagree that the trade-offs are worth it, but as you sit at a cafe in Copenhagen, sipping coffee and enjoying a Danish (called Viennese bread), Denmark hardly seems like a socialist nightmare.

Indeed, Danes — very politely — express concern for what they perceive as a dystopia on the other side of the Atlantic.

“We look to America for a lot of things,” Nielsen, the labor negotiator, told me. “And then we meet people in the fast-food sector, and. …” He paused, struggling for the right words. “Look, all countries have flaws, right? But you look at labor rights in America, and it’s crazy. If you work full time you should be able to support your family.”

Kristina Hansen, 27, who works at a nonunion hamburger chain called Cock’s & Cows, told me she is now thinking of buying an apartment. Surprised, I noted that few Americans working at hamburger chains are buying their own homes, and we discussed American fast-food pay.

“How can they survive on that money over there?” she asked me. “It’s so expensive to live in New York. I wonder how they live on that kind of money.”


There is more at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/opinion/sunday/us-denmark-economy.h
tml


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 12:44 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

6IXSTRINGJACK:

Raise the minimum wage to $15 overnight and you're going to see millions of extra jobs shed within a year.

They can probably manage to do it without the cost of goods being raised too much, but if you thought you had a hard time finding an employee to assist you in the stores now, just wait until the minimum wage gets hiked to more than double of what it is today.

That's also not to mention how many small businesses, particularly restaurants who operate on a razor thin budget already, will go out of business.

But I get the argument though...

25 years ago, minimum wage jobs were for kids and nearly exclusively were held by kids. Now that I've been working them again during the last 10 years, seeing a kid working one is the exception to the rule. The last job I had, most of the adults working it also had a 2nd or even a 3rd job to pay all the bills.

I can't imagine a life where you had to work an 8 hour shift at one thankless job only to get in your car and drive your sad ass to another one before you could go home and sleep. :(

SECOND: You sound precisely the same as a Texas Republican businessman arguing against raising the minimum wage. Just shut the hell up and raise the wage, then see what happens. Remember the story about the business owner who raised minimum wages to $70,000? I heard a thousand times from idiotic and rich Republicans (and some Democrats who weren't any better informed than Rush Limbaugh) that the business would fail because it doesn't give all the rewards for success to the business owner. Instead, it prospered.
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-51332811

I would bet you dollars to donuts that that was a privately-held company, but unfortunately that is not how most of our large businesses are run.

The particular compnay that you mention took a reduced profit INSTEAD OF paying its workers shitty wages. But large corporations that are publicly held are beholden to their stock owners to either pay the highest dividends or pursue the highest stock prices. They do that because they're competing with other publicly traded companies. they aren't interested in #widgets produced or customers served, they're focused on servicing their LBO loans and their stock prices. I've seen the difference between privately-held Stater Bros and publicly held Kroger/Ralphs.

And the companies that are privately owned are usually SMALL ... restaurants, gas stations, beauty and nail salons, etc usually DBA running on very thin profit margins already. So unless you change the structure of who owns large businesses (non-local stock holders, banks) and also manage to take greed out of the equation, very few large businesses can, or will, follow this example.

*****

So, I looked up the Democrat's platform on "job creation". (I tend not to pay too much attention to platforms because they're just empty promises, for the most part, but I digress.)

Quote:

Democrats support the creation of an infrastructure bank , a public bank that will leverage public and private resources to build infrastructure projects of national or regional significance, including in rail and transit, clean energy and water infrastructure, broadband, and affordable housing. Projects that receive assistance from the bank will be required to follow Buy America and Buy Clean provisions, pay Davis-Bacon prevailing wages, utilize project labor agreements, and ensure employers remain neutral in workers’ organizing efforts.


Infrastructure jobs. Even FDR ran into the limits of infrastructure investment, and HE was solidly committed to them! If this creates "hundreds of thousands" of jobs it is a pittance compared to the 7.5 MILLION jobs lost since 1980. You still need production at home. How about a public bank to finance steel mills and cheical plants and textiles and energy production? Or the government taking a 51% stake in some of these companies?

They mention "buy at home" policy, but don't address tariffs and balance of trade.

And the elephant in the room: reducing Pentagon spending.

Not wanting the perfect to be the enemy of the good, better than nothing and surely our infrastructure is in dire need of being overhauled, including energy conservation. Maybe even reviving the Civilian Conservation Corps. But if you REALLY want to make a difference, you have to address tariffs, trade agreements, Pentagon spending, investment banking and PRODUCTION.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 7:37 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

Infrastructure jobs. Even FDR ran into the limits of infrastructure investment, and HE was solidly committed to them! If this creates "hundreds of thousands" of jobs it is a pittance compared to the 7.5 MILLION jobs lost since 1980.

A $1 trillion investment in infrastructure spending would create as many as 11 MILLION jobs through 2027. This stimulus will restore the growth path of job creation that was derailed by the Great Recession. Some political analysts argue that this proposal would compel the Republican Party to uphold the campaign promises made by President Trump, in order to maintain support from blue-collar workers, who helped elect him.
https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/trillion-dollar-infrastr
ucture.pdf


You might have noticed that Trump wrote no infrastructure bill. Why? Ask him about it in his second term. (The GOP Senators didn't want to pay for it, but that's just between you and me. I'm unsure if Trump knew. Maybe somebody should tell him?)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Saturday, October 24, 2020 10:28 PM

WHOZIT


If Trump wins I wonder how many libs will kill themselves...asking for friend?

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Monday, October 26, 2020 1:08 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNYM:

Infrastructure jobs. Even FDR ran into the limits of infrastructure investment, and HE was solidly committed to them! If this creates "hundreds of thousands" of jobs it is a pittance compared to the 7.5 MILLION [MANUFACTURING SIGNY] jobs lost since 1980.

SECOND: A $1 trillion investment in infrastructure spending would create as many as 11 MILLION jobs through 2027. This stimulus will restore the growth path of job creation that was derailed by the Great Recession. Some political analysts argue that this proposal would compel the Republican Party to uphold the campaign promises made by President Trump, in order to maintain support from blue-collar workers, who helped elect him.
https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/trillion-dollar-infrastr
ucture.pdf


You might have noticed that Trump wrote no infrastructure bill. Why? Ask him about it in his second term. (The GOP Senators didn't want to pay for it, but that's just between you and me. I'm unsure if Trump knew. Maybe somebody should tell him?)



a) Have the dems committed to a trillion dollar program?

b) I don't know what "11 million jobs through 2027" means. Do they mean 11 million each year through 2027? Or do they mean 11 million job-years? I guess SECOND should read this and explain.

c) Are these jobs permanent? Or do they go away once the spending goes away? That's the problem with infrastructural jobs ... since they definitely contribute to the "public good" but generally don't have a revenue stream attached, they aren't self-sustaining.

d) I note the phrase "As many as" and wonder whether they're counting the multiplier effect (secondary job creation) and what the LOWER bound is.

d) Who is paying for this? How about we gore the Pentagon's budget?

Good for "pump priming" but unless you commit to MAKE AT HOME and tariffs to make American-made good internally cost-competitive, it's NOT self-sustaining.

It's not a bad idea, and I have nothing against infrastructural jobs, and my wet dream is a revival of the civilian conservation corps to do all the forest management, wetland restoration, urban-forest planting, invasive species killing, renovation for energy conservation, and all of the environmental remediation that we so desperately need.

BUT. It's incomplete.

Dems are promising one-third of the solution, Trump is working on the other third, but we need both. Together. Plus directed investment into production and manufacturing.

But if the dems force Trump's hand into creating an infastructural program, so much the better. My guess, tho, is that if Biden wins this promised program will wind up where all dem promises go ... into corporate profits. Just like the ACA and bank bailouts.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 1:05 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
JSF

First of all, the SS Wage Statistics deal with people who are earning a paycheck - not the unemployed. Unemployment benefits aren't wages. So your argument that low wage workers are "essentially" unemployed, and trying to pass them off in that category, is in error. They may be working very few hours, and their wages may be abysmally low, but they're working. Instead of trying to fudge away the data, realize that, indeed, the wage data posted in the SS Wage Statistics is as dire as the lives most working people are living.

When you're dealing with a continuous variable - like wages - it's a common and acceptable practice to divide the data into 'slices' and subject those slices to statistical evaluation. "With an arbitrary range of 0-49,999 the average of $3,216 - and this would be your Mode with all income ranges at $50,000." It's a well known problem that picking arbitrary ranges can affect statistical evaluation, so the practice is to create as many ranges as you can possibly work with, to more accurately reflect the distribution shape of the original data. Picking a very arbitrary and very large range is also misdirected.

"With a Federal Minimum Wage of $7.25 per hour, any wages below $15,080 are essentially unemployed or Part Time employ." Yes ... and that's another problem that goes unaddressed by the focus on the minimum wage - the many many people who work gig, ad hoc, part-time, or less than part-time work.

"But you are not including all of the Wage Earners who were unemployed completely." And that's still another problem with the government stats like mean and median wage - it misses all the people who aren't working at all. And that includes the formally unemployed as well as those who've dropped out of the labor marker entirely, and therefore not counted in any unemployment statistic.
Another way to look at unemployment is to look at the labor participation rate.
After a drastic slide post 2007
https://i.insider.com/529f21b6eab8ea780a58f40b?width=1085
it leveled off around 2015.



Quote:

And it hasn't improved since then.

I'm not seeing an economic miracle for people who work for a living, and certainly not one under Trump.

After 2008 things leveled off under the thumb of The Rock-The-Vote Democraps from the 2006 election. Unti Obama in 2009 started feverishly shipping jobs to other countries, sabotaging the economy. That you seem to be able to see. Trump stopped this repetitive downslope, and then started to improve. Then your chart ends. Since Sept 2018, EVERY SINGLE MONTH was better than the same month prior year, until Libtard lockdowns. Building an economy is much harder (which conservative always try to do) than destroying it, which Dems always try to do.


It is a shame you cannot see it.

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 1:45 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


1993 2001 Clinton

2001 2009 Bush (2007 BearStearns; 2008 The Great Recession)

2009 2017 Obama





I can see just fine.

Can you?

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