REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

10 Ways to Call Something Russian Disinformation Without Evidence - The principles of American Newspeak, vol. 1

POSTED BY: 1KIKI
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 3, 2020 19:35
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Tuesday, October 27, 2020 8:58 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



10 Ways to Call Something Russian Disinformation Without Evidence
The principles of American Newspeak, vol. 1



How do you call something “Russian disinformation” when you don’t have evidence it is? Let’s count the ways.

We don’t know a whole lot about how the New York Post story about Hunter Biden got into print. There are some reasons to think the material is genuine (including its cache of graphic photos and some apparent limited confirmation from people on the email chains), but in terms of sourcing, anything is possible. This material could have been hacked by any number of actors, and shopped for millions (as Time has reported), and all sorts of insidious characters - including notorious Russian partisans like Andrei Derkach - could have been behind it.

None of these details are known, however, which hasn’t stopped media companies from saying otherwise. Most major outlets began denouncing the story as foreign propaganda right away and haven’t stopped. A quick list of the creative methods seen lately of saying, “We don’t know, but we know!”:

1.0 Our spooks say it looks like the work of their spooks.

A group of 50 “former senior intelligence officials” wrote a letter as soon as the Post story came out. Their most-quoted line was that the Post story has “all the classic hallmarks of a Russian information operation.” Note they said information operation, not disinformation operation — humorously, even people with records of lying to congress like James Clapper and John Brennan have been more careful with language than members of the news media. ...


2.0 It was prophesied.

The Washington Post needed four reporters — Shane Harris, Ellen Nakashima, Greg Miller, and Josh Dawsey — to tell us that “four former officials familiar with the matter” spoke of a long-ago report ...

3.0 Authorities are investigating if it might be Russian disinformation.

“The FBI is probing a possible disinformation campaign,” announced USA Today, citing the omnipresent “person familiar with the matter.” ...

Many of the outlets who covered this sequence of events described the F.B.I. statement as “carefully worded,” inviting us to read in things left unsaid. Thomas Rid in the Post went so far as to say Tyson was “hinting that actionable intelligence might yet be developed,” which is technically true but also technically meaningless.

Another neat trick was to discuss the Post story and in the same sentence refer to a present-tense description of an apparently confirmed operation to discredit Joe Biden. CNN’s construction was like this: “The FBI is investigating whether the recently published emails that purport to detail the business dealings of Joe Biden's son in Ukraine and China are connected to an ongoing Russian disinformation effort targeting the former vice president's campaign.” ...

4.0 Even if it isn’t a Russian influence operation, we should act like it is.

Johns Hopkins “Professor of Strategic Studies” Thomas Rid came up with the most elegant construction in a Washington Post editorial, stating bluntly: “We must treat the Hunter Biden leaks as if they were a foreign intelligence operation — even if they probably aren’t.” ...

5.0 The Biden campaign says it’s Russian disinformation (even though they can’t say for sure it’s disinformation at all).

The press has elicited from the Biden campaign a few limited, often contradictory comments about what is and isn’t true in the New York Post story. For instance, the campaign’s chief communications officer Andrew Bates said about allegations Joe Biden met with Burisma executive Vadym Pozharski, “We have reviewed Joe Biden's official schedules from the time and no meeting, as alleged by the New York Post, ever took place.”

In the same article, reporters noted, “Biden’s campaign would not rule out the possibility that the former VP had some kind of informal interaction with Pozharskyi.” So no meeting took place (although we’re not saying no meeting took place).

6.0 Accuse anyone who asks questions about the story of being in league with Russia.

Reporters who merely retweeted the story or even just defended its right to not be censored, like Maggie Haberman of the New York Times or Marc Caputo from Politico, were instantly blasted as accomplices to foreign disinformation plots. ...

The poor fellow who asked Biden about the story on the tarmac in the above clip, Bo Erickson of CBS, got raked over the coals by the most aggressive Heathers in the giant high school that is America, fellow media members.

7.0 Adam Schiff says it is!

8.0 This reminds us of that other time!

One of the first reactions by press was to note how the release of the Burisma emails reminded them of 2016, when “Russian hackers and WikiLeaks injected stolen emails from the Hillary Clinton campaign into the closing weeks of the presidential race.”

The New York Times went so far as to say it had spoken with “U.S. intelligence analysts” who “contacted several people with knowledge of the Burisma hack,” claiming they’d heard “chatter” that stolen Burisma emails would be released as part of an “October surprise.”

9.0 Just say it!

One of the beautiful things about the post-evidence era in media is that pundits can simply say things willy-nilly, provided it’s the right thing. David Corn and Mother Jones, who this time four years ago were publishing some of the first pebbles from the towering Matterhorn of bullshit that was the Steele dossier, ran a headline proclaiming, “Giuliani and the New York Post are pushing Russian disinformation.” ...

My favorite, however, was probably former lead impeachment counsel Daniel Goldman, who noted that while the laptop might not be foreign disinformation, it was “part” of foreign disinformation ... Daniel Goldman @danielsgoldman
The laptop itself is not disinformation. But it is part of a Russian disinformation campaign that has been going on for years.


10.0 Everyone quote everyone else!

Donald Trump has taken a lot of grief — deservedly — for his “a lot of people are saying” method of backing up public statements. The response to the New York Post story has been the same kind of informational merry-go-round. Each of the above methods has often been backed up by others on the list, using A=A=A style rhetorical constructions.

The “50 former senior intelligence officials” letter cited “media reports” that “say that the FBI has now opened an investigation into Russian involvement.” They cited the USA Today story that cited the “person familiar with the matter” in making that claim, adding that, “according to the Washington Post, citing four sources, U.S. intelligence agencies warned the White House last year that Giuliani was the target of an influence operation.” ...

In other words, this is a story about media commentators citing intelligence sources who in turn are citing media commentators citing intelligence sources.



Of course it’s possible there’s a foreign element to the Post expose. But there’s nothing concrete to go on there, which has forced the press to levitate the claims through such propaganda spin-cycles. It’s amazing how quickly these machines get built now…


https://taibbi.substack.com/p/10-ways-to-call-something- russian?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNTM5NjYwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxND c5ODcyOCwiXyI6IlU5cjVaIiwiaWF0IjoxNjAzODI1Mzg3LCJleHAiOjE 2MDM4Mjg5ODcsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0xMDQyIiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZW FjdGlvbiJ9.aZngFsa5AxN41BACDXUnaBoTxEBSOgRvMF8WlC9k-wk





I significantly shortened this to accommodate those of the ADHD variety, and those who have difficulty with English. For the full text of the article, see the link above (broken to accommodate page size).

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 12:56 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Do you think the Libtards even understand the circular logic of sourcing that they practice?

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 1:53 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Do you think the Libtards even understand the circular logic of sourcing that they practice?

Of course they do. They use it all the time and don't see anything wrong with it! Because, yanno... because.

Seriously, just look at REAVERBOT ... anyone that he disagrees with is a "Russian troll". Does he REALLY think there are six Russian trolls on this no-account website? If he does, he's nuttier than a fruitcake.

CAP'NCRUNCH, paid "influencer", uses circular logic and evidence-free accusations all the time, it's part of his toolkit.

And SECONDRATE, on his Grand Mission to destroy the GOP ... well, he lies like a rug, he KNOWS he's lying like a rug, but for him all is fair in love and war, and he's running his own private war.

SO yep, they could end all of their posts with

I'm a Democrat Operative, and I approve of this message

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Saturday, October 31, 2020 3:10 PM

REAVERFAN


Study Exposes Russia Disinformation Campaign That Operated In The Shadows For 6 Years
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/878169027/study-exposes-russia-disinfor
mation-campaign-that-operated-in-the-shadows-for-6
-

Pillars of Russia’s Disinformation and
Propaganda Ecosystem
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pillars-of-Russia%E2%
80%99s-Disinformation-and-Propaganda-Ecosystem_08-04-20.pdf


Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinformation/r
ussia-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-panic-in-west-eu-document-says-idUSKBN21518F


The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

Russia ‘launders’ disinformation by using fake personas, U.S. writers
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-leverages-fake-personas-u-s-w
riters-to-spread-disinformation

---

And of course, we have the real world example of the Russian trolls HERE, such as IKooky, who constantly spread lies.







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Saturday, October 31, 2020 10:26 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I honestly hope that none of them really believe any of the bullshit they constantly peddle.

Otherwise, that's a terrifying world they they've made for themselves.

And it's not as if the Legacy Media hasn't been terrorizing American citizens all year as it was already.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 1:20 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan]
And of course, we have the real world example of the Russian trolls HERE, such as IKooky, who constantly spread lies.

I'm hurt.
I don't even get an honorable mention?

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 1:27 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan:
Study Exposes Russia Disinformation Campaign That Operated In The Shadows For 6 Years
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/878169027/study-exposes-russia-disinfor
mation-campaign-that-operated-in-the-shadows-for-6
-

Pillars of Russia’s Disinformation and
Propaganda Ecosystem
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pillars-of-Russia%E2%
80%99s-Disinformation-and-Propaganda-Ecosystem_08-04-20.pdf


Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-disinformation/r
ussia-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-panic-in-west-eu-document-says-idUSKBN21518F


The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html

Russia ‘launders’ disinformation by using fake personas, U.S. writers
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-leverages-fake-personas-u-s-w
riters-to-spread-disinformation

---

This is almost as good as REAVERBOT's post about Joe McCarthy... I have here in my hand a list... As REAVERBOT so kindly pointed out, there was no list, just anti-Russian hysteria. Just like there's no Russian disinformation campaign, just anti-Russian hysteria.

I'm afraid to say, but most of the disinformation seems to be internally generated, particularly in conjunction with the M$M and the spook agencies. And passed along by dupes.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 6:13 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Garry Kasparov wrote about Trump and Putin:

You could make a very long list of things pundits insisted autocrats would never do that they eventually did. I made such a list myself, about Vladimir Putin. In my 2015 book, "Winter Is Coming," I called it the "Putin would never" list. It included things like taking over private media companies, arresting Russia's richest man for dabbling in politics and invading Georgia and Ukraine.

"Doesn't Putin realize how bad this looks?" became the experts' refrain after he crossed line after uncrossable line. As if he cared how things looked. Why should he? Dictators don't ask "Why?" They only ask, "Why not?" They don't stop unless someone stops them. No one stopped Putin.

For years, my colleagues and I in the Russian democracy movement warned that Putin was building a dictatorship. Even when it was crystal-clear that Russian democracy and civil society had been gutted, the free world fiercely resisted acknowledging that truth.

Putin laid bare the huge disconnect between autocrats and normal people -- the autocrats' ability to do things that simply don't occur to people with a sense of decency and a respect for norms and traditions. Autocrats are aware of the consequences they might face for the damage they do, but they believe they can avoid those consequences by staying in power, forever if necessary. Trump might have been indicted several times over were he not protected by his office, and a sense of impunity tends to make one sloppy.

Trump no doubt believes that he has more to lose by leaving office than by fighting -- lawlessly or not -- to stay. The oligarchs and thugs he so admires surely agree. They won't easily let go of such a lucrative investment -- one of their own kind in the Oval Office.

More at https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/opinions/trump-after-the-election-prepa
re-for-unimaginable-kasparov/index.html


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 8:04 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I'm afraid to say, but most of the disinformation seems to be internally generated, particularly in conjunction with the M$M and the spook agencies. And passed along by dupes.

Who is Matt Taibbi, writer of this article 1kiki wants you to read? https://taibbi.substack.com/p/10-ways-to-call-something-russian

Taibbi has a past. Even more interesting, he and Signym/1kiki have a present-day agenda:

In 2019, Taibbi wrote a chapter for his self-published book, Hate Inc., entitled "Why Russiagate Is This Generation's WMD", comparing alleged Trump-Russian collusion to allegations Iraq had WMD in 2002/2003. Writing in an opinion piece for in the New York Times, Michelle Goldberg criticized Taibbi's assertion that "the biggest thing [the investigation] has uncovered so far is Donald Trump paying off a porn star” as "silly".

How did Taibbi become so screwed up in the head? (There is no wiki on Signym/1kiki, but if there was, I'd quote it.):

Taibbi moved to Russia in 1992.[21] He lived and worked in Russia and the former USSR for more than six years. He joined Mark Ames in 1997 to co-edit the English-language Moscow-based, bi-weekly free newspaper, The eXile, which was written primarily for the city's expatriate community. The eXile's tone and content were highly controversial. To some, its commentary was brutally honest and gleefully tasteless; others considered it juvenile, misogynistic, and even cruel.[22][23][24] In the U.S. media during this time, Playboy magazine published pieces on Russia both by Taibbi and by Taibbi and Ames together. In 2000, Taibbi published his first book, The Exile: Sex, Drugs, and Libel in the New Russia, co-authored with Ames. He later stated that he was addicted to heroin while he did this early writing.

More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Taibbi

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 9:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I'm afraid to say, but most of the disinformation seems to be internally generated, particularly in conjunction with the M$M and the spook agencies. And passed along by dupes.

Who is Matt Taibbi, writer of this article 1kiki wants you to read? https://taibbi.substack.com/p/10-ways-to-call-something-russian

Taibbi has a past. Even more interesting, he and Signym/1kiki have a present-day agenda:

In 2019, Taibbi wrote a chapter for his self-published book, Hate Inc., entitled "Why Russiagate Is This Generation's WMD", comparing alleged Trump-Russian collusion to allegations Iraq had WMD in 2002/2003. Writing in an opinion piece for in the New York Times, Michelle Goldberg criticized Taibbi's assertion that "the biggest thing [the investigation] has uncovered so far is Donald Trump paying off a porn star” as "silly".

How did Taibbi become so screwed up in the head? (There is no wiki on Signym/1kiki, but if there was, I'd quote it.):

Taibbi moved to Russia in 1992.[21] He lived and worked in Russia and the former USSR for more than six years. He joined Mark Ames in 1997 to co-edit the English-language Moscow-based, bi-weekly free newspaper, The eXile, which was written primarily for the city's expatriate community. The eXile's tone and content were highly controversial. To some, its commentary was brutally honest and gleefully tasteless; others considered it juvenile, misogynistic, and even cruel.[22][23][24] In the U.S. media during this time, Playboy magazine published pieces on Russia both by Taibbi and by Taibbi and Ames together. In 2000, Taibbi published his first book, The Exile: Sex, Drugs, and Libel in the New Russia, co-authored with Ames. He later stated that he was addicted to heroin while he did this early writing.

More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Taibbi

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly



OH LOOK = THE DUPE SPEAKS!

Smears. Innuendo. Lies.

You complain that he actually lived in a place tht he writes about? Nowhere did the article say he was pro-Soviet.

That's like complaining that a travel agent has actually visited the places that he books, and wrote about them.

Experience makes Taibbi's writing MORE valuable, not less. And what's better ... he writes honestly. He is absolutely correct = this Presidential term's Russiagate is like the WMD hoax under GWB.

If only you would be so honest!


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 10:12 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


OH, BTW


Quote:

Wikipedia Co-Founder: Site’s Neutrality Is ‘Dead’ Thanks to Leftist Bias
T.D. Adler26 May 2020

Larry Sanger, the co-founder of Wikipedia, published a blog post this month declaring that the online encyclopedia’s “neutral point of view” policy is “dead” due to the rampant left-wing bias of the site. Noting the article on President Donald Trump, Sanger contrasted its extensive coverage of presidential scandals with the largely scandal-free article on former President Barack Obama.



I used the site all the time when I was working if I didn't know what a particular compound was used for (if we ID'd it in a sample) but I would NEVER use if for anything political because it's wrong, wrong, wrong. The bias is inbelievable.

Just like SECONDRATE's.

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 11:41 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

OH LOOK = THE DUPE SPEAKS!

Smears. Innuendo. Lies.

You complain that he actually lived in a place tht he writes about? Nowhere did the article say he was pro-Soviet.

That's like complaining that a travel agent has actually visited the places that he books, and wrote about them.

Experience makes Taibbi's writing MORE valuable, not less. And what's better ... he writes honestly. He is absolutely correct = this Presidential term's Russiagate is like the WMD hoax under GWB.

If only you would be so honest!

Signym, the argument you are suppose to make, for people who don't bother to check who's selling a lie for a reason, is that Taibbi is a respected award-winning writer pointing out undeniable facts. That is NOT who he is, but you should write it despite that.

Actually, he has always been a provocateur. The more cleverly he writes his extreme accusations, the more money he makes, assuming he continues to write at great length and takes care of the grammar, spelling and composition of what he is selling. Back when he was using heroin, he wasn't a careful writer, so he had to self-publish much of what he wrote. No reputable publisher would pay for what the drug addict was selling. The wacko stuff Taibbi recently wrote, like the article you quote, he still has to self-publish. He could be on heroin, again. William S. Burroughs wrote famous books while he was a junkie. Taibbi could, too, if he tries:
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/10-ways-to-call-something-russian

Here is Taibbi bitching about being ignored: https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1322323197472231424

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 12:55 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

SIGNYM:OH LOOK = THE DUPE SPEAKS!
Smears. Innuendo. Lies.
You complain that he actually lived in a place tht he writes about? Nowhere did the article say he was pro-Soviet.
That's like complaining that a travel agent has actually visited the places that he books, and wrote about them.
Experience makes Taibbi's writing MORE valuable, not less. And what's better ... he writes honestly. He is absolutely correct = this Presidential term's Russiagate is like the WMD hoax under GWB.

If only you would be so honest!

SECONDRATE: Signym, the argument you are suppose to make, for people who don't bother to check who's selling a lie for a reason, is that Taibbi is a respected award-winning writer pointing out undeniable facts. That is NOT who he is, but you should write it despite that.

Actually, he has always been a provocateur.



SECONDRATE, dupe, son ... you would have to be a brain-dead simpleton NOT to see that the whole RUSSIA!RUSSIA!RUSSIA! hype was an internationally constructed conspiracy involving our spook agencies, our politicians at the highest level, willing corporate media, and international co-conspirators to derail an American election and to oust a democratically-elected President. If THAT doesn't provoke you, then you hate America and you hate democracy because it SHOULD provoke you.

If Matt Taibbi provokes you into seeing the truth, that's a GOOD thing because truth is often provcative. Especially in corrupt times.

AFA being "self-published" ... maybe that has to do with the CENSORSHIP imposed by corporate media and corporate social media?

Did you know that Glenn Greenwald ... the investigative reporter who broke the Ed Snowden story... just resigned from The Intercept ... a publication that he co-founded... because its publishers in NYC tried to censor his article on Hunter and Joe Biden?
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/oct/30/glenn-greenwald-quits-i
ntercept-after-blackout-hun
/

Go look it up, it's all over the internet.

MANY OF THE BEST INVESTIGATIVE REPORTERS HAVE BEEN SELF-PUBLISHED BECAUSE CORPORATE MEDIA (eg Hearst publications) have often censored their reporters. From Isaac "Izzy" Stone to the samisdat in the USSR to Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, and Julian Assange ... you would not know anything outside of what corporate social/media wants you to know without self-publishing reporters.


The attempted censorship of the news is on full display, and if you depend on the chorus of disinformation from the CIA-influenced establishment/corporate social/media to know what's going on, then you truly are a dupe.


-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

#WEARAMASK

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 2:28 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Signy, there are many people here for whom facts don't matter. They didn't learn from RUSSIA!!!RUSSIA!!!RUSSIA!!!-Trump-COLLUSION and the godawful sinking feeling they got from the Mueller Report. They're even trying to re-write the report in their minds. They didn't learn from WMDs "around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat." They didn't even learn from the Gulf of Tonkin.


The government lies, and not just itty bitty ones, but even YUGE, protracted, entire campaigns-of-lies war-starting ones.

Now, I realize that reality is the ultimate master, and people who don't have a grip ... or even a clue ... about it will at best be blindsided by events, or at worst fatally steamrolled.

I'm just not sure you posting facts will wake them up.

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Sunday, November 1, 2020 2:41 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.




But for those with an academic interest, there's the Baloney Detection Kit in its fist-aid form, and as a more expansive EMT kit.

Carl Sagan's "Baloney" Detection Kit


1 Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

2 Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

3 Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

4 Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

5 Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

6 Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

7 If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.

8 Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

9 Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.


And check your own thinking and arguments to avoid


1 ad hominem — Latin for “to the man,” attacking the arguer and not the argument (e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith is a known Biblical fundamentalist, so her objections to evolution need not be taken seriously)

2 argument from authority (e.g., President Richard Nixon should be re-elected because he has a secret plan to end the war in Southeast Asia — but because it was secret, there was no way for the electorate to evaluate it on its merits; the argument amounted to trusting him because he was President: a mistake, as it turned out)

3 argument from adverse consequences (e.g., A God meting out punishment and reward must exist, because if He didn’t, society would be much more lawless and dangerous — perhaps even ungovernable. Or: The defendant in a widely publicized murder trial must be found guilty; otherwise, it will be an encouragement for other men to murder their wives)

4 appeal to ignorance — the claim that whatever has not been proved false must be true, and vice versa (e.g., There is no compelling evidence that UFOs are not visiting the Earth; therefore UFOs exist — and there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. Or: There may be seventy kazillion other worlds, but not one is known to have the moral advancement of the Earth, so we’re still central to the Universe.) This impatience with ambiguity can be criticized in the phrase: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

5 special pleading, often to rescue a proposition in deep rhetorical trouble (e.g., How can a merciful God condemn future generations to torment because, against orders, one woman induced one man to eat an apple? Special plead: you don’t understand the subtle Doctrine of Free Will. Or: How can there be an equally godlike Father, Son, and Holy Ghost in the same Person? Special plead: You don’t understand the Divine Mystery of the Trinity. Or: How could God permit the followers of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam — each in their own way enjoined to heroic measures of loving kindness and compassion — to have perpetrated so much cruelty for so long? Special plead: You don’t understand Free Will again. And anyway, God moves in mysterious ways.)

6 begging the question, also called assuming the answer (e.g., We must institute the death penalty to discourage violent crime. But does the violent crime rate in fact fall when the death penalty is imposed? Or: The stock market fell yesterday because of a technical adjustment and profit-taking by investors — but is there any independent evidence for the causal role of “adjustment” and profit-taking; have we learned anything at all from this purported explanation?)

7 observational selection, also called the enumeration of favorable circumstances, or as the philosopher Francis Bacon described it, counting the hits and forgetting the misses (e.g., A state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent on its serial killers)

8 statistics of small numbers — a close relative of observational selection (e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5 people is Chinese. How is this possible? I know hundreds of people, and none of them is Chinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’ve thrown three sevens in a row. Tonight I can’t lose.”)

9 misunderstanding of the nature of statistics (e.g., President Dwight Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence);

10 inconsistency (e.g., Prudently plan for the worst of which a potential military adversary is capable, but thriftily ignore scientific projections on environmental dangers because they’re not “proved.” Or: Attribute the declining life expectancy in the former Soviet Union to the failures of communism many years ago, but never attribute the high infant mortality rate in the United States (now highest of the major industrial nations) to the failures of capitalism. Or: Consider it reasonable for the Universe to continue to exist forever into the future, but judge absurd the possibility that it has infinite duration into the past);

11 non sequitur — Latin for “It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Our nation will prevail because God is great. But nearly every nation pretends this to be true; the German formulation was “Gott mit uns”). Often those falling into the non sequitur fallacy have simply failed to recognize alternative possibilities;

12 post hoc, ergo propter hoc — Latin for “It happened after, so it was caused by” (e.g., Jaime Cardinal Sin, Archbishop of Manila: “I know of … a 26-year-old who looks 60 because she takes [contraceptive] pills.” Or: Before women got the vote, there were no nuclear weapons)

13 meaningless question (e.g., What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? But if there is such a thing as an irresistible force there can be no immovable objects, and vice versa)

14 excluded middle, or false dichotomy — considering only the two extremes in a continuum of intermediate possibilities (e.g., “Sure, take his side; my husband’s perfect; I’m always wrong.” Or: “Either you love your country or you hate it.” Or: “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem”)

15 short-term vs. long-term — a subset of the excluded middle, but so important I’ve pulled it out for special attention (e.g., We can’t afford programs to feed malnourished children and educate pre-school kids. We need to urgently deal with crime on the streets. Or: Why explore space or pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?);

16 slippery slope, related to excluded middle (e.g., If we allow abortion in the first weeks of pregnancy, it will be impossible to prevent the killing of a full-term infant. Or, conversely: If the state prohibits abortion even in the ninth month, it will soon be telling us what to do with our bodies around the time of conception);

17 confusion of correlation and causation (e.g., A survey shows that more college graduates are homosexual than those with lesser education; therefore education makes people gay. Or: Andean earthquakes are correlated with closest approaches of the planet Uranus; therefore — despite the absence of any such correlation for the nearer, more massive planet Jupiter — the latter causes the former)

18 straw man — caricaturing a position to make it easier to attack (e.g., Scientists suppose that living things simply fell together by chance — a formulation that willfully ignores the central Darwinian insight, that Nature ratchets up by saving what works and discarding what doesn’t. Or — this is also a short-term/long-term fallacy — environmentalists care more for snail darters and spotted owls than they do for people)

19 suppressed evidence, or half-truths (e.g., An amazingly accurate and widely quoted “prophecy” of the assassination attempt on President Reagan is shown on television; but — an important detail — was it recorded before or after the event? Or: These government abuses demand revolution, even if you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs. Yes, but is this likely to be a revolution in which far more people are killed than under the previous regime? What does the experience of other revolutions suggest? Are all revolutions against oppressive regimes desirable and in the interests of the people?)

20 weasel words (e.g., The separation of powers of the U.S. Constitution specifies that the United States may not conduct a war without a declaration by Congress. On the other hand, Presidents are given control of foreign policy and the conduct of wars, which are potentially powerful tools for getting themselves re-elected. Presidents of either political party may therefore be tempted to arrange wars while waving the flag and calling the wars something else — “police actions,” “armed incursions,” “protective reaction strikes,” “pacification,” “safeguarding American interests,” and a wide variety of “operations,” such as “Operation Just Cause.” Euphemisms for war are one of a broad class of reinventions of language for political purposes. Talleyrand said, “An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public”)




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Sunday, November 1, 2020 3:17 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.





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Sunday, November 1, 2020 3:40 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


^ Yup. That's why my vote is for Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 5:02 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


And that's why my vote is for neither. If both are wrong, then why in god's name be a partisan hack?

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Monday, November 2, 2020 5:11 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Because Trump isn't Republican.

Trump's as much Republican as Bernie Sanders is a Democrat.

Just ask any Republican behind NeoCon backed Lincoln Project that Ted posts videos from everyday. Or John McCain's corpse. Or any number of Republican politicians who were anti-Trump but started blowing him over the last 4 years after they realized that the people that vote Republican like Trump better than any of them.


Trump's the only President that I'm happy I voted for 4 years later, and on Tuesday it will be a pleasure to vote for him again.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 5:41 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



It's hard to say what Trump stands for because he speaks out of all 10 sides of his mouth.

That said, even assuming he INTENDS to do differently than the run of the mill repubmocrat (or maybe it's a demolican), Trump appears to be incapable enough that he's been hogtied.

BTW, I don't predict or bet, but I've seen enough really pessimistic predictions that not only will Trump lose, but that the Senate will flip as well, that I have to give them some attention. To me, having demolicans in charge of everything would be a worst-case scenario in terms of foreign policy.

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Monday, November 2, 2020 7:56 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:

It's hard to say what Trump stands for because he speaks out of all 10 sides of his mouth.



Like every single other politician that existed since the beginning of politics. Also, at the same time, the most scrutinized and Legacy Media abused politician that ever existed during an age where the internet has made everybody who uses social media crazy.

Quote:

That said, even assuming he INTENDS to do differently than the run of the mill repubmocrat (or maybe it's a demolican), Trump appears to be incapable enough that he's been hogtied.


We've got a rather lengthy list here of his unsung accomplishments. I'm quite pleased with some things that he's done that no other president before him has even tried to do despite many campaign promises to the contrary. Half of them are regarding foreign relations, which seem to be a top priority on your list. It's easy to forget what he has done when the Legacy Media never reports on any of it though.

Quote:

BTW, I don't predict or bet, but I've seen enough really pessimistic predictions that not only will Trump lose, but that the Senate will flip as well, that I have to give them some attention. To me, having demolicans in charge of everything would be a worst-case scenario in terms of foreign policy.



Well... you can't ignore them completely. It's not as if I haven't seen them too.

But remember that I was the only person here that said he'd win in 2016. Not sure about your circles IRL, but I was the only person I knew that thought Trump was going to win there too.


There has been a huge shift since 2016 though. Despite the polls and everything the Legacy Media says, I'm far from being the only one who thinks that Trump is going to win this time.


EDITED TO ADD:

There have been new polls conducted that ask the question "who do you think your friends are going to vote for" instead of asking the person directly who they're voting for. Every poll conducted that changes this method of questioning show Trump winning big.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 9:17 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.



Trump's accomplishments? Like ... uh ... moving troops out of Germany - and then repositioning them on the Russian border? Pulling troops out of Syrian front lines - and repositioning them around NE Syria oil wells? Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and going whole hog on being Israel's stupid big brother whenever Israel goes around taunting bigger countries it can't handle on its own? Keeping the US first-strike nuclear option and breaking every existing nuclear treaty? Maintaining the decreased illegal flow across the US southern border that started under Obama? You mean like those accomplishments?



BTW, betting odds are another way of asking who do you think your friends are going to vote for, but with money on the line. Asking that way gets the answer that Biden wins 2:1.

AFAIK the only significant pollster predicting a Trump win is The Trafalgar Group, but one thing they do extremely right compared to the others is that they have computer-generated polling asking questions and recording answers. All other studies that I've seen on self-reporting indicate that people lie a lot more to people than they do to computers.



Personally I think it's going to come down to PA. They're both close enough that if either one loses PA they lose the election.


But the odds of demolicans flipping the senate look even better than the odds of a Biden win.

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Monday, November 2, 2020 9:32 AM

REAVERFAN


QAnon received earlier boost from Russian accounts on Twitter, archives show
https://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN27I18I?utm_source=red
dit.com&utm_source=reddit.com


You mean the Russians actively amplified that clown show? Judging by the actions of the Russian trolls here, that's a fact.



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Monday, November 2, 2020 9:40 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Whatever, SECOND.

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Monday, November 2, 2020 10:01 AM

REAVERFAN


http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=62137

And this little nugget:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63897

Yes, 6ix is a Q-tard. He doesn't talk about it because he knows we'll laugh at him even more than we usually do.



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Monday, November 2, 2020 10:11 AM

REAVERFAN


$65 million of covid funds are being used to fund to a plasma company owned by a republican donor and Rick Santorum run out of an apartment. Corruption on full display
https://apnews.com/article/trump-admin-funds-plasma-eugene-zurlo-5990d
2ac718bc26070e72ce55bc712f8


The feds will be all over this and whomever is responsible will be held to account after a full and transparent investigation.

oh, wait. The Barr is too low for that to happen. HAHAHAHAHA!

Well, Trump paying Putin directly with our money for fake Ventilators didn't quite work, and the fake Russian vaccine didn't pan out, so of course the payments are hidden.





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Monday, November 2, 2020 11:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by reaverfan:
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=62137

And this little nugget:

http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=63897

Yes, 6ix is a Q-tard. He doesn't talk about it because he knows we'll laugh at him even more than we usually do.






I've got no idea what Q-Anon is or what they believe in. Only seen them referenced here and occasionally a headline on a story on RCP. Whenever they show up there I see one headline that's obviously pro Q-Anon with an obviously anti-Q-Anon right next to it.

My conspiracy theory days are long behind me.

You and your buddies are the ones going around wearing masks like you're living in V for Vendetta today.




As for laughing at me? It's hilarious you think I give a shit what a piece of human garbage like yourself thinks about anything let alone how undeniably awesome I am.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 11:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by 1KIKI:
Whatever, SECOND.



Indeed.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Monday, November 2, 2020 6:19 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by SIGNYM:

I'm afraid to say, but most of the disinformation seems to be internally generated, particularly in conjunction with the M$M and the spook agencies. And passed along by dupes.

Who is Matt Taibbi, writer of this article 1kiki wants you to read? https://taibbi.substack.com/p/10-ways-to-call-something-russian

Taibbi has a past. Even more interesting, he and Signym/1kiki have a present-day agenda:

In 2019, Taibbi wrote a chapter for his self-published book, Hate Inc., entitled "Why Russiagate Is This Generation's WMD", comparing alleged Trump-Russian collusion to allegations Iraq had WMD in 2002/2003. Writing in an opinion piece for in the New York Times, Michelle Goldberg criticized Taibbi's assertion that "the biggest thing [the investigation] has uncovered so far is Donald Trump paying off a porn star” as "silly".

How did Taibbi become so screwed up in the head? (There is no wiki on Signym/1kiki, but if there was, I'd quote it.):

Taibbi moved to Russia in 1992.[21] He lived and worked in Russia and the former USSR for more than six years. He joined Mark Ames in 1997 to co-edit the English-language Moscow-based, bi-weekly free newspaper, The eXile, which was written primarily for the city's expatriate community. The eXile's tone and content were highly controversial. To some, its commentary was brutally honest and gleefully tasteless; others considered it juvenile, misogynistic, and even cruel.[22][23][24] In the U.S. media during this time, Playboy magazine published pieces on Russia both by Taibbi and by Taibbi and Ames together. In 2000, Taibbi published his first book, The Exile: Sex, Drugs, and Libel in the New Russia, co-authored with Ames. He later stated that he was addicted to heroin while he did this early writing.

More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Taibbi

OH LOOK = THE DUPE SPEAKS!

Smears. Innuendo. Lies.

You complain that he actually lived in a place tht he writes about? Nowhere did the article say he was pro-Soviet.

That's like complaining that a travel agent has actually visited the places that he books, and wrote about them.

Experience makes Taibbi's writing MORE valuable, not less. And what's better ... he writes honestly. He is absolutely correct = this Presidential term's Russiagate is like the WMD hoax under GWB.

If only you would be so honest!

Local Trolls give dupes a bad name.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 2:44 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I honestly hope that none of them really believe any of the bullshit they constantly peddle.

Otherwise, that's a terrifying world they they've made for themselves.

And it's not as if the Legacy Media hasn't been terrorizing American citizens all year as it was already.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Yes, it is a terrifying concept, and they are terrifying themselves, but I still do not think they have a clue that they are regurgitating complete fabrications. They feel that it was sourced, even via circular sourcing, and that is what they have been indoctrinated to swallow, without critical thought.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 3:57 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


I truly pity them. Being stupid is a terrifying way to live your life.


No matter what happens tonight, I win.

I either get to rub a Trump win hard in their face, or I get to show them how adults behave when they don't get their way.

Sun still rises either way, and I'm certainly not going to do to myself for four years what they did to themselves.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 5:04 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I truly pity them. Being stupid is a terrifying way to live your life.


No matter what happens tonight, I win.

I either get to rub a Trump win hard in their face, or I get to show them how adults behave when they don't get their way.

Sun still rises either way, and I'm certainly not going to do to myself for four years what they did to themselves.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

You seem confidant that tonight will be a conclusion. News in WI is that vote totals are hoping to be completed by tomorrow morning.

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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 6:57 PM

REAVERFAN


Despite what Trump said, no election has ever been decided on election day.

Every vote counts. Count every vote.

Unless you're a fascist, of course.



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Tuesday, November 3, 2020 7:35 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

[/i]


Quote:

Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
I truly pity them. Being stupid is a terrifying way to live your life.


No matter what happens tonight, I win.

I either get to rub a Trump win hard in their face, or I get to show them how adults behave when they don't get their way.

Sun still rises either way, and I'm certainly not going to do to myself for four years what they did to themselves.



Do Right, Be Right. :)

You seem confidant that tonight will be a conclusion. News in WI is that vote totals are hoping to be completed by tomorrow morning.




It was over between 2 and 3 A.M. CST in 2016. I'm sure they didn't literally mean when you're waking up and making breakfast for yourself.

No reason that can't happen tonight.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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