EW: Uni Exec: Serenity must make north of 80 million for sequels by rklenseth

Quote:
Originally posted by Cedric:
[B
Now, on the subject of 80 million dollars, what is that in captain dummy talk? How much is that compared to what other movies have pulled in? Could someone who knows more about the movie biz explain this one?

"You can't take my show from me,
Because I've got the DVD."
www.BedlamBards.com
Ballad of Joss: http://mp3-postcards.com/listen/?888

$80 million worldwide isn't a whole lot. Most movies without huge stars manage about 25% international, compared to domestic. So, if Firefly can manage that 25% international, it would have to make about $65 million domestic to reach $80 million worldwide ($65 domestic with 25% international would be $16.25 for a total of $81.25).

So, looking at a basic industry trend drop of 40% from weekend to weekend, how likely is a $65 million take for Serenity?

I would expect that the forcast for Serenity's opening weekend will be about $30 million. That's not great compared to things like Star Wars or Lord of the Rings, but it's what the Dukes of Hazzard managed this past weekend.

So if you take $30 million for week one, and have that drop 40%, that's a take of $18 million in weekend two. Throw in $5 million for the weekdays in between, and by the end of weekend 2 (Oct 9), the BDM would be at $53 million. Take another 40% drop for weekend 3 ($10.8 million) and add in $2.5 million for the weekdays in between, and at the end of weekend 3 (Oct 16), Serenity would be sitting at $66.3 million. 25% of that would be $16.57 million (assuming a 25% international box office), and that would give Serenity a worldwide box office of $79.87 million. At the end of three weeks, that $80 million is attainable without a huge weekend.

Now-- having said that, genre and cult movie have had a tendancy to drop more than 40%. The first X-Men movie had about a 60% drop from weekend 1 to weekend 2. If Serenity suffered 60% drops, then it would limp to that $80 million worldwide after about 7 weeks.

If you look at last year's same period, Shark Tale throws things out of whack a good bit, because, as much as I would for it to, Serenity isn't like to do the kind of business that Shark Tale did. But, the #2 movie that weekend was Ladder 49. It had a $22 million opening weekend, and ended with a Domestic total of $74.5 million. It pulled in a ratio of 35% internationally, for a take of $26 million (probably owing to Travolta), which gave it a worldwide take of $100.5 million. I don't think that those numbers are unrealistic for Serenity.

Ladder 49 was reviewed decently, but not great. I've seen Serenity, and while I loved it, I expect that a lot of the big reviewers, having not seen Firefly, will give it 2.5 stars, or a B review. Which is about what Ladder 49 got. Serenity has the built in fan base, and Ladder 49 had the fan bases of Travolta and Joaquin Phoenix. It opened at $22 million and had about a 40% drop off to $13 million in weekend 2, with about $5 million in weekday earnings between.

I'd love to say that Serenity will have that huge $60 million opening weekend, but I just don't see it. Not unless all browncoats go to see it 2 or 3 times EACH DAY of that opening weekend. And while there is a lot of passion out there, that's expecting a lot. I think a realistic opening weekend total is $25-30. It wouldn't surprise me for it to have a $15-18 million Friday, with a big drop off on Sat and Sun. But if it can pull $30 million, and then avoid the dreaded 60% drop-off, then I'm betting by the end of Oct, we'll have a sequel in pre-production.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 10:02 AM

BARCLAY

As a general rule, it's expected by everyone in movies that a film will drop off 50% in its second week. This is normal. What is abnormal is a movie like Wedding Crashers which has yet to drop off more than 24% in any of its four weeks out.

(Note: A great source for all kinda of box office data is boxofficemojo.com)

So, I've created (and now adjusted) some box office predictions for Serenity.

1.3 million people watched Firefly on scifi last Saturday. If they each go and bring a friend (not a stretch, I watched and am bringing 12 friends), that's 2.6 million tickets. Say they pay an average of $7 per ticket. This becomes 18.2 million to open. That's just on the fan base. I'm also going to factor in another $15 million dollars. This is based on the opening week gross for Stealth. If they can bring out $15mil worth of people for that film, Serenity should have no trouble picking up that number. Giving us the conservative opening weekend estimate of $33.2 million. Now, let's say Serenity is good (and we will because that's what everyone is saying), and we lose only 30% of the audience. That gives us in the range of $22mil the second week. And say it happens again. $16mil for week 3. But then it starts to taper off. $8mil for week 4, $4mil for week 5. That gives us a total of $83mil domestically alone. That doesn't even include the worlwide market or secondary sales.

But this all sounds a bit dubious, right? based on serenity holding long term projections above the norm 50% dropoff. Well, let's look at the release schedule.

On Sept 23rd
Tim Burton's the Corpse Bride (which I kinda expect to tank)
Waiting (A Comedy with Ryan Reynolds and Anna faris. Probably not much staying power)

Sept 30th
Serenity
The Greatest Game Ever Played (A feel-good Disney Golf movie. Like anyone is going to see that).

Oct 7
In Her Shoes (A Cameron Diaz comedy)
Two For the Money (Al Pacino drama)

Both not a big threat to Serenity (if base don genre alone).

Oct 14
Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom among others)
Domino (Keira Knightley). These could cut into Serenity a bit, which is why I predicted a bigger drop off.

Oct 21
Jennifer Aniston and Kurt Russel have separate movies coming out, in addition to Doom. This is the weekend I see Serenity really tailing off.

So, while I have no official experience regarding movies, I think these estimates are realistic enough that we could get a domestic gross of $80mil, before worldwide and secondary sales are added in (Serenity, like Star Trek, is going to make a killing on the secondary market).

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Friday, August 12, 2005 10:11 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by Barclay:
Sept 30th
Serenity
The Greatest Game Ever Played (A feel-good Disney Golf movie. Like anyone is going to see that).

Oct 14
Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom among others)
Domino (Keira Knightley). These could cut into Serenity a bit, which is why I predicted a bigger drop off.

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

The Greatest Game Ever Played is "from the producers of 'Remember the Titans' 'The Rookie' and 'Miracle'" which grossed, $115.6, $75.6, and $64.3 million respectively, and cleaned up on DVD. I think you can expect a $15-20 million opening weekend for it. Serenity SHOULD beat this, but it will be some competition, mainly due to the limitless pocketbooks at Disney when it comes to marketing.

Elizabethtown stars not only Orlando Bloom, but also Kirsten Dunst, and is from Cameron Crowe, who has had big hits like Jerry Maguire and Vanilla Sky. I wouldn't be surprised if it actually beats Domino. That's mainly because I don't think anyone really cares about Keira Knightley - lord knows the box office for King Arthur wasn't helped by her presence.

Serenity should have the time to get its $75-80 million domestic before the holiday movies start, though - you are correct there. I'm not quite as optomistic in my projections, but we really aren't that far off.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 10:29 AM

CEDRIC

Thank you both for breaking down the numbers for the rest of us. All the predictions look good.

I'd like to see better than good. I think if we get out there and increase our guerrilla marketing efforts, we can not only make Universal consent to a sequel, we can make the rest of the industry stand up and take notice.

"You can't take my show from me,
Because I've got the DVD."
www.BedlamBards.com
Ballad of Joss: http://mp3-postcards.com/listen/?888

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Friday, August 12, 2005 11:20 AM

SIMONWHO

A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).

I think we need to know if it's $80m domestic, $80m worldwide or $80m with everything thrown in before we can make real judgements.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 11:37 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by SimonWho:
A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).

The Greatest Game Ever Played is the true story of the 1913 US Open Golf tournament. In the tournament, Francis Ouimet, the 20 year old son of an immigrant beat the world's best golfers in the event that catupluted golf into popularity in the US. It's a pretty famous event for golf fans, and the trailers for it look pretty good. Incedentally, it is directed by Bill Paxton, whose directorial debut "Frailty" is pretty excellent.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 12:29 PM

TIBBY

It's quite simple: If you're a true Browncoat go see this movie at least 5 times in the theater. Twice on opening weekend. Invite everyone you know who might be remotely interested to come along every single time. Even if they aren't into this kind of movie, bribe them in some way ("Hey, I'll drive"), guilt trip them into it("I don't like to go to movies alone"), or outright trick them under the pretense of seeing something else, only to show up at the theater at the wrong time. Heck, go to the wrong theater altogether (one that has Serenity). I know thats what I plan on doing. I guarantee this film will make north of 80 million if everyone else does the same thing.

Granted, just seeing the film 5X by yourself would probably do the trick, but it never hurts to bring in more cash for the film.

Buy the DVD immediately when it comes out. DVD sales help alot (as we have seen) Buy the merchandise.

Let's be realistic, this is a cult film based on a cult series. If you want sequels this is how you're gonna get them.

The film is awesome. I got to see it on May 5th, even got an autograph from "the man they call Jayne", but we cannot rely on the quality of the film alone to push it past 80 million. Not in this day and age.

Do your duty Browncoats

"It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena... who strives... who spends himself... and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring, so that his place shall never be with those cold timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat"
-Theodore Roosevelt

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Friday, August 12, 2005 12:59 PM

SPOOKYJESUS

All the fans go see the movie 8 times. (twice opening day - once everyday after - or buy a ticktet and don't go or give it to a homeless guy)

Problem solved.

Also - lets not forget that the money from the sell out advance screenings is going to add some extra beans to the cannolis.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 1:14 PM

QUICKSAND

Bah.

Movies drop 50% in their second week because they suck. Stealth, Fantastic Four, War of the Worlds........ these were not good movies, but in some cases the hype makes us feel like we NEED to see them. I stayed far away from the first two, and "War of the Worlds" was fun to sit through once; I don't forsee that I'll ever watch it again, not could I give it any better than a B- or C+ review. Everyone who was going to see those movies, went in Week One. To use those as only three examples.

Most movies like these are marketed to 12 year old boys. There aren't a lot of 40-year-olds going to see Vin Diesel movies, for example.

Whereas MTV is also marketed to 12-year-olds, it's the VH1 crowd (25-35) that will enjoy Serenity. Market to them, and make the movie worth seeing a 2nd time, and we're in. Market to 12-year-olds, and it'll be over their heads. Which is the reason the show got cancelled.

Enough promos and I hope people will see it, word will spread. $80 million is a LOT for a smaller movie like this-- Blade only capped around $60 million and had not one, but TWO sequels.

Also, opening the same weekend, Oscar-worthy "Oliver Twist," directed by Roman Polanski. Not a 12-year-olds movie, either.

Hopefully people will be in a movie-going mood come late September, after 9 straight months of crap. THE PLUS: Hey, "Speed" was pretty much all Joss, and that was the biggest hit of 1993ish. THE MINUS: It's a space movie, in September. Space movies don't come out much at all these days... anyone remember the final gross of A:R?

Let's keep our fingers crossed. And our wallets open. I'm guaranteeing I'm going 3 times, even if it sucks worse than Phantom Menace.

(....which it won't, but... mm, hey, i'm just hoping for slow and steady, like the sixth sense, remember?)

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Friday, August 12, 2005 1:26 PM

REGINAROADIE

Why in the world would you think that TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE would tank? Next to SERENITY, that's the one flick in September I'm eager as Hell to see. Not only do you have the powerhouse combo of Burton and Depp (which after CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY is the most potent director/actor team in the industry today), but you also have 12 years of nostalgia betwen it and NIGHTMARE BEFORE XMAS. NIGHTMARE might've been a mid-sized hit in 93, but in that time has become a monument of the Goth, animation and children's crowd. Everyone whose seen it loves it tremendously, and will most definitly be showing up for it.

All the other flicks opening before and after SERENITY might not pose a challenge, but CORPSE BRIDE is the only flick that I'd really be concerned about.

Oh, and for the 30th, I'm planning on seeing it 4 times in a row and dressed as Wash. I was planning on going as Wash for Halloween, but I've decided to go ahead by a month.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

And wow! Hey! What's this thing suddenly coming towards me very fast? Very very fast. So big and flat and round, it needs a big wide sounding name like ... ow ... ound ... round ... ground! That's it! That's a good name - ground! I wonder if it will be friends with me?

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Friday, August 12, 2005 1:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Barclay:
So while I have no official experience regarding movies, I think these estimates are realistic enough that we could get a domestic gross of $80mil, before worldwide and secondary sales are added in (Serenity, like Star Trek, is going to make a killing on the secondary market).

For someone with no official experience, I'd say you hit it pretty close to the mark.
I've followed movie trends as the've related to stock value, and have been right in my box office predictions most times. SWROTS performed only a little better than I expected, but dropped off sooner, too.
Serenity will have the expected 2nd week dropoff, but it'll have legs (word of mouth, multiple viewings, rising cult status), so a mere $80,000,000 is easy.
We've as good as got our sequal.

Champaign, anyone?

Just remember to coax others after ya see it Chrisisall

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Friday, August 12, 2005 2:03 PM

SIMONWHO

Quote:
Originally posted by nxojkt:
Quote:
Originally posted by SimonWho:
A movie called "The Greatest Game Ever Played"? Could I have a wild guess that the winner turns out to be America/an American? (I genuinely don't know but I'm taking a shot here).

The Greatest Game Ever Played is the true story of the 1913 US Open Golf tournament. In the tournament, Francis Ouimet, the 20 year old son of an immigrant beat the world's best golfers in the event that catupluted golf into popularity in the US. It's a pretty famous event for golf fans, and the trailers for it look pretty good. Incedentally, it is directed by Bill Paxton, whose directorial debut "Frailty" is pretty excellent.

Soooooooooooo, it's an American who wins then?

And yeah, Frailty was good.

M,BatT I still have major concerns about how broad the fanbase is. Yes the screenings sell out in no time but we already know we have 50,000 Browncoats dedicated enough to register accounts online. Even if they all go see the movie opening weekend an extra four times, that's still only another $2m in the kitty.

Let's assume that the movie only has a 40% drop off every week (that's still very good for a movie, particularly a sci-fi one). That means, to reach $80m domestically, we need a $32m opening.

Chances are they'll know by Monday 3rd the state of the franchise. DVD sales might be a bonus shot but given the current state of that market, I wouldn't pin our hopes there.

So, how do we get 3.2m people to watch the movie on the opening weekend?

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Friday, August 12, 2005 2:16 PM

RKLENSETH

I would like to point out that Oliver Twist is only a limited release.

The only other wide release and real competition so far that weekend is Into the Blue. Lord of War was also to open that weekend but the studio pushed it up to Sept. 16 because of the Serenity hype.

Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 2:16 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SimonWho:
So, how do we get 3.2m people to watch the movie on the opening weekend?

Trust in and add to the positive word of mouth.

My only concern is that the trailer paints it a little dark. We can expect ( in terms of non-FF fans ) large shares of those who payed to see SWROTS, Batman Begins, and Fantastic Four to go for it, only once people actually start passing word of mouth like: "it was better than I thought...", that's where it's legs come in.

Nothing beats a great pair of legs Chrisisall

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Friday, August 12, 2005 2:39 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
Star Wars III made half as much $ it's second week,
and half again as much it's third week,
and then it dropped like a stone.

Embers, in the late 70's and early 80's I ran around conventions dressed like Luke Skywalker, made my own lightsabre and stormtrooper blasters, and saw Star Wars OVER 50 times in it's first year of release. I would call that hard-core.
I still haven't seen Revenge of the Sith. I'll eventually rent it.
If the last three SW movies came out way back then, I would have done what I did with Logan's Run, and seen each maybe three times. And only 'cause they looked good.

My point is that if SWROTS can pull that kind of money JUST from non-disillusioned hard-core fans plus event-goers, Serenity is a shoe-in!
Words like original and refreshing in reviews won't hurt either.

Like the sold out Serenity comics at comicshops, the BDM will surprise the box-office doubters.

Sooth-sayer Chrisisall

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Friday, August 12, 2005 2:42 PM

CHIPMUNK

Tibby, great suggestions! I like the way you think!

One advantage Serenity has over most of the competition is re-watchability. If it's almost as important for us core fans to go 2nd weekend, I'm sure we can "force" ourselves to do so!

I've already got firm plans to see it twice opening day, and should have 1st Saturday sorted out soon. Now I know to add 2nd & 3rd weekends to my local Nerd Herd's plans.

Remember that the Monday after opening weekend, most of us will be returning to work with big goofy happy grins embedded in our faces. We'll be creating an intriguing buzz that will permeate our work/school places without any conscious effort.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 6:46 PM

ROLAND

I hope that most people don't have the attitude of Quicksand in a post above or Serenity won't do very good. He says that Stealth and Fantastic Four were not good movies then goes on to say he hasn't even seen them. I'm assuming he says they aren't good based on reviews he has seen. If people see bad reviews of Serenity and say its not a good movie without seeing it, it will flop. And there will be some bad reviews, there always are. You should at least see a movie before saying it isn't any good. I frequently disagree with reviewers. I personally thought Fantastic Four was the second best movie I've seen this year, after Batman Begins.

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Friday, August 12, 2005 10:48 PM

QUICKSAND

*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi." Yes, every movie will receive negative reviews, but those first two received so many bad ones that you could build a battle cruiser from them. I watched the trailer for "Taxi" thinking, "THIS is the best stuff from the movie? THIS is how they're gonna get me to go see it?" Shockingly, pal, if the acting, dialogue and gist of the story are 0 for 3 in the trailer, 98% of the time, the movie will suck too. Try it, it works.

And Stealth... well, I explained Stealth.

Joss Whedon has been writing some fantastic works for years, and I think it's impossible for any trailers or adversiting to hide that fact, just as no trailer in the 'verse could make "Stealth" or "Elektra" look good to anyone. To name two.

And the more that I think about it, $80 million is SUCH an arbitrary number. When was the last time a movie made more than $80 million, but less than $100 million? It NEVER happens, not anymore. Everything is outstandingly good (Big $$), amazingly bad (tank), or just so/so, which means the studio will adverstise the hell out of it in hopes of making a profit. I don't need to tell you which Serenity will be.

HOWEVER-- as I said, most big dumb summer movies plummet in $$$$-intake so quickly because everyone who is going to see them, sees them opening weekend. "Serenity," it goes without saying, will continue to attract people, because of the talented people who came together to create it. From the TV show, we know it's a superior product. (read: "Freaking Cool.")

Something which the entire Summer of '05 was lacking, no matter which ones I saw, or didn't see.

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 1:20 AM

ECLIPTIC

My goal is to see it atleast 3 times.

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 3:29 AM

NERVOUSPETE

I actually really enjoyed War of the Worlds, and saw it twice. There was something about the stark horror of certain scenes - a crystalisation of everything I dread - that hooked me. Plus I was an immense fan of the book and was just waiting for someone to do a realist low key version of an alien invasion, even if they did (gngh) transplant it to modern america. (Which actually worked superbly, I thought. My only gripe was Robbie's survival, which although thematically correct, was utterly unrealistic)

Back on to Serenity.

I know personally four people in South Wales who will see it at least twice, and a dozen more across the country who will see it at least once. I'll see it three times at least. I cautiously hope it will make 80 mil, but I touch wood anyway for fear of jinxing.

Anyway, a big hurrah for the Universal Exec for letting us know where we stand! I think it's a reasonable target and I can't blame them, they like the movie but they're still in the moneymaking business.

Still, if Serenity beats 'Sideways' for me in personal approval, my fave film so far this year, then I will be surprised.

"If you can keep your head whilst others... eurgh! Ack! I've spilt my ink! Ugh! Ink on my trousers! Agh! Ink on my shirt! My only hope! The window! Aieeeeee!" (Falls to death)
- Jonathan Nash

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 5:04 AM

BAYBREEZE1

Couple of things.

Having seen Serenity already (yay me!) I personally feel it is the kind of movie that even non-fans may want to see twice. It is fast paced, with so many great lines that can be easily missed, and so many nuances (sp) that you kinda of (ok, I kind of) walked out thinking, oh, I gotta see that again to get all the stuff I missed!

And while I still do wish Universal would do more on the general advertising front (sorry, but I've seen promos for movies that aren't coming out till November!)I agree that it's gonna be up to us. It is indeed a "cult" show and movie, so we gotta get peoples in the theaters. My daughter and I already have people who have promised to go see it with us the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd weekends. Between the two of us, we probably will be taking 15-20 non-fans to the theater. And most of these are people we could not convince to sit down and watch all the DVD's of Firefly. They were more willing to go see a movie then spend the time watching DVD's.

So get your friends, family, co-workers, and strangers off the street to see it!

We are driven, and that makes us good recruiters (sp)!

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 8:53 AM

MIKELESQ

There are two reasons we need good box office:

1) Universal needs to make money, and
2) Theaters need to want a sequel

A good 4 week run is ususally enough to make both happy. Studios/distributors get the lion's share of the first two weeks revenue, whereas theaters take most of the second two weeks plus (the first two weeks they make their money mostly on popcorn).

So a $80 million take would probably represent $50 million the first two weeks (making Universal most of their money back, and the foreign/cable/broadcast/DVD money would be almost pure profit), and another $30 million plus for theater owners. At that point, Universal would want to make another movie, and there would be the 3000+ theaters that would want to take it.

Now, if we can get $50 million the first weekend, and sustain for the next three weeks to get around $100+ million, then a sequel would be ordered quickly. While $80 million total might get a sequel, it might not get a green light until the DVD sales. So if we want a Bigger Damn Movie for Christmas 2006, it needs to do really well out of the gate.

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 9:36 PM

Interesting to note:

My former roommate is a manager at a large chain theatre. He recently went to a corporate meeting where they gave them a book of projections done by Movieline that this particular chain and several others use to guage potential interest in movies. Well, it seems as though the folks at Movieline (I don't know if it is related to the website that does trailers, so don't jump over there and start bashing) don't think too much of our little cult movie. Their projections for Serenity are a $3.5 million opening weekend and a $10 million total box office.

Now, after laughing and saying that I think Serenity will have topped $10 million by the end of Friday, I started to think about this, and realized that this is actually pretty good news.

If the major theatre chains use Movieline, then that means that Universal probably also takes a look at their projections. So, if these projections are for $10 million, and Serenity has a $25 million opening weekend, then it will have FAR exceeded industry expectations. Exceeding expectations is one of the easiest ways to achieve a sequal without having to put up blockbuster numbers.

Take the movie "Pitch Black" for example. Its opening weekend total of $11.5 million certainly didn't turn most heads, nor did its $39.2 million total box office gross. But a moderate cost of $23 million, coupled with good DVD sales, and a rising star in Vin Diesel got the Chroincles of Riddick made - and made by Universal Studios.

The Chronicles of Riddick didn't necessarily knock it out of the park with a $57.7 million US box office, but it also made $57.6 million over sees, for a worldwide total of $115.3 million. Its big cost of $105 million means it probably won't get another sequel, but it did well enough worldwide that Universal probably won't be scared of greenlighting a moderately priced sequal to Serenity.

So, the moderate cost of Serenity will help. The DVD sales will be a certainty, based on sales of the tv set. And the rising star thing could come to fruition also... certainly Nathan Fillion or Summer Glau (or any of the BDHs) could become a big star, but the rising star of this film is most likely to be Joss Whedon.

Keep in mind that he's set to make Wonder Woman next. If Wonder Woman comes out and makes Batman Begins like money ($200 million domestic, $350 million worldwide - and climbing), X-Men 2 like money ($215 million domestic, $406 worldwide) or Spiderman like money ($403.7 million domestic, $821 million worldwide)then Joss Whedon will be able to make whatever movie he wants to make, regardless of any box office from Serenity.

So....

#1) go see the movie -- obviously. Universal has told us $80 million, but that's a pretty arbitrary number. As long as Serenity exceeds expectations, we're doing fine. And if those expectations are a meger $10 million, then that should be easy.
#2) buy the DVD. Big DVD sales and rentals were responsible for the sequals to Austin Powers (which only made $53.8 million, but also had Mike Meyers rising star).
#3) Hope that Wonder Woman does well. It really doesn't matter how well Serenity does if Wonder Woman becomes a huge hit. But if Wonder Woman fails (see Catwoman) or just never happens (See the Superman Lives project of 1999 with Tim Burton attached, or the revolving door of directors for Superman Returns and X-Men 3), then big box office or DVD sales will be crucial.

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 9:37 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by mikelesq:
So if we want a Bigger Damn Movie for Christmas 2006, it needs to do really well out of the gate.

With Joss Whedon signed to direct Wonder Woman in 2006, there is almost no chance that he would have time for a Serenity sequel until 2007.

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 10:06 PM

BARCLAY

Quote:
Originally posted by nxojkt:

The Greatest Game Ever Played is "from the producers of 'Remember the Titans' 'The Rookie' and 'Miracle'" which grossed, $115.6, $75.6, and $64.3 million respectively, and cleaned up on DVD. I think you can expect a $15-20 million opening weekend for it. Serenity SHOULD beat this, but it will be some competition, mainly due to the limitless pocketbooks at Disney when it comes to marketing.

Whereas these other movies I had some interest in, even after seeing the trailer for the Greatest Game Ever Played, it just looks to be nowhere near the level of the other films. And I even have something other than my own opinion to go on.

Those movies grossed totals relative to the popularity of their respective sports. Football is by far the most popular, followed by baseball. Miracle probably out-grossed the popularity of hockey in the US currently, but it was a patriotic film at heart, that just happened to have hockey as a backdrop. Plus it was a very well known story. And that opened at slightly less than $20mil.

So, I would say that Golf ranks just slightly above hockey in terms on American popularity, and much of that is due to the Tiger Woods effect (need proof? Just compare TV ratings of the final days of majors when Tiger is contention vs. when he isn't). So, this not having the strong patriotic ties of Miracle, and being about a sport less popular, I think it could open worse than Miracle. Probably in the $10-15M range.

I will qualify my statement on the Corpse Bride a bit. There are a lot of Burton fans out there, but I wonder if this one isn't a little unusual, even by those standards. Not to mention, it seems like it should be released a month later, as a Halloween movie. I think if the movie were truely great, the studio would have released it at the end of October. The fact they didn't, makes me wonder what their opinion of it is. Which means, while it should have a decent opening ($25mil?), it should drop off.

I see the Box Office Numbers for Sept 30-Oct 2 looking like

1) Serenity $30mil
2) Greatest Game $15mil
2) Corpse Bride $12.5mil

And if that doesn't make people stand up and take notice, I don't know what will.

"You are on the Global Frequency."
http://www.frequencysite.com
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com

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Saturday, August 13, 2005 10:20 PM

I know this sounds arrogant but Movieline doesn't know what they're talking about. Here's why I say that:

They don't know FIREFLY
They don't know us.

And apparently they haven't heard William Goldman say "Nobody knows anything".

My guess is their low prediction is beacause it has no stars, is an off-season release, and is based on a cancelled T.V. show "nobody" watched.

How many screens is it getting opening weekend?

Anyway, I'm predicting 20 million opening weekend, domestic (I'd bet money on that, but I'll be spending it on SERENITY). We can do that if we see it at least twice and get our recruits to see it at least twice. We'll create word of mouth. That'll keep it running more than two weeks. By the end of at the fourth weekend, I see another 20 million. Meanwhile the rest of the world will be close to duplicating what we're doing. I'm bettin' by the end of the fourth weekend we'll have 80 million in worldwide gross.

Just so long as we don't get cocky.

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Sunday, August 14, 2005 9:00 AM

HUITZIL

I'm not sure how many of you guys are american - and how much difference that makes on the whole America-rules-the-world-and-movies front, but speaking as a little Brit, I think this thing's gonna go much bigger international than you guys think.

Also what's all this "try and see it three times"! I booked the friday off for the preview - and i'm going to watch it across the whole weekend as many times as I can fit in, with various friends, relatives, complete strangers met in pubs.....

I'm Considering (on quite how financially flush I am at the time) buying a couple of extra tickets for each showing and just handing them out in the cinema foyer. Even if I only do it once, if I cause a fair ruckus at the time it'll get some attention for the BDM! Handing 11th hour's flyers out can't hurt either! :)

___________
All guilt is relative. Loyalty counts. And never let your conscience be your guide.

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Sunday, August 14, 2005 11:49 AM

Hey, I hope the rest of the world beats the pants off us in terms of foreign (to us Yanks) box office.

Generally speaking the only numbers we see reported here are domestic. In the case of box office "domestic" may mean the U.S. and Canada--I've never known that. And I've also never known how foreign box office usually compares to domestic on say a moderate hit. So I was saying "comes close to duplicating" so as not to be overly optimistic.

Seeing two or three times? Well, not everyone can afford to see it more than that. But those who are committed to 5, 10, 15, or more times? More power to 'em! They are Big Damn Heroes and so are you!

If, at the very least, Universal gives us four weeks to make 80 mil worldwide then it's a done deal. It could happen sooner and if it does then we are even mightier than we thought we were!

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Monday, August 15, 2005 3:52 AM

THORNIR

Itchy trigger finger - double post.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 3:52 AM

THORNIR

One small thing that people need to keep in mind when imagining numbers for Serenity's opening weekend is the number of screens it will be shown on. Many of the summer "blockbusters" were shown on multiple screens in each theater. I don't know for sure, but I highly doubt that it will end up playing on three or four screens, probably not even two. That may limit the opening weekend take even though every showing might sell out.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 4:11 AM

I agree. I doubt it's the kind of movie that will play on more than one screen in a multi-plex. Has anyone heard anything on how many screens will be showing it on opening weekend? I would think it be somewhere around 1000 domestically.

But during October or so it will open in more countries around the world, and that will greatly increase the amount of screens. If Universal had said they wanted 80 domestically in two weeks, I'd be panicing. But worldwide, I think we will do it.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 4:23 AM

RKLENSETH

Serenity will be playing at 2,500 screens domestically.

Serenity will actually be opening on September 29th in most places in the world so the rest of the world will be getting Serenity before the US and Canada with the exception of the UK which won't get Serenity until Octobor.

Oh, and play Cantr II at www.cantr.net.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 4:29 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by huitzil:
I'm not sure how many of you guys are american - and how much difference that makes on the whole America-rules-the-world-and-movies front, but speaking as a little Brit, I think this thing's gonna go much bigger international than you guys think.

All guilt is relative. Loyalty counts. And never let your conscience be your guide.

I very much hope you're right. The International box office exceeding the domestic box office would be huge. It doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen frequently enough that it isn't a total shock.

The two biggest examples in recent years are the Bridget Jones movies. The first made $71.5 in America and $210 internationally, and the sequal pulled $40.2 in America and $221 internationally. I think either of those things would cause a definite sequal.

I can't speak for everyone, but I will say that I personally have no way to guage international interest. We don't wave flags around here, so I don't know who is and isn't from America, Canada, England, etc.. The projections I have made have been based on the norm. Most movies make 25-30% internationally of what they made domestically. So, to be safe, that's what I've been figuring. If this movie breaks the norm and is a 50%, 75%, or even better yet, a higher total internationally, then that's better for all of us.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 4:34 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
In the case of box office "domestic" may mean the U.S. and Canada--I've never known that.

I've never seen a listing for Canadian box office, so my guess is that "domestic" actually means North American.

Check out boxofficemojo.com and look at a huge movie that played pretty much everywhere (Star Wars) and you can get an idea of what countries typically report.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 5:01 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
Has anyone heard anything on how many screens will be showing it on opening weekend? I would think it be somewhere around 1000 domestically.
/B]

I think RKLenseth is likey closer to correct with his 2,500 screen estimate. 1,000 screens is next nothing.

The 3 movies that opened this weekend had each of the following screen counts:

Four Brothers - 2533
Skeleton Key - 2771
Deuce Bigalow - 3127

The budget for Four Brothers was $45 million, meaning it's about the same size project as Serenity. So I'd say you can bet on at least 2500 screens. Again, to go back and use the analogy from last year's 1st weekend in Oct, Ladder 49 opened on 3261 screens.

Most movies that finish a weekend ranked #1 in an "off" week will average between $8,000 and $12,000 per screen. Of course, a big movie like Spiderman will average $30,000 per screen. With the cult like following of Serenity, I think we can count on at least $8,000. The trick will be to shoot for that $11,000-15,000 per screen average.

To break that down into raw numbers-- if Serenity opens on 2500 screens this will be the opening weekend totals based on per screen average:

$8,000 average - $20 million (roughly what Four Brothers made this past weekend)
$11,000 average - $27.5 million
$15,000 average - $37.5 million

The last movie to average $15,000+ on its opening weekend was The Fantastic Four, and it opened on 3600 screens. Keep in mind that this means that Charlie and the Chocolate Factory failed to hit $15,000, falling just short at about $14,900 per screen. So that's a tough number to reach. Of course, the fewer screens, the higher your average tends to be.

My guess is that Serenity will likey fall somewhere between $8,000 and $10,000 with somewhere between 2500 and 3000 screens. I'd say that $27.5 million would likely please Universal. So if we're at only 2500 screens, that means an average of $11,000 per theatre.

So what does this mean? What it always means -- Go see the movie.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 5:17 AM

EARLY

Quote:
Originally posted by FlyingTams:
Quote:
Originally posted by embers:
Quote:
Originally posted by rklenseth:
Entertainment Weekly quotes a Universal exec saying that Serenity will have to make over 80 million dollars in order to be considered for sequels.

is that US opening weekend, or does it include world wide and/or DVD sales...
{/QUOTE]

Probably the opening weekend? because there is no way it won't make 80 mil - its not just DVD, its also licensing rights. Even with a cast of unknowns and a totally crap story and lame effects a movie can make a lot of money. It is a business you know, and Hollyweird has been turning out crap movies and making a bundle for many decades.

It can't be the opening weekend. Few movies make that the opening weekend. Besides why would the studio say they wouldn't make a sequal just because the opening weekend was less than 80 million if it went on the make 300 million total. Thats dumb. So He must be talking about total. But you are right that 80 million is easy if you count DVD sales which is where a lot of movies (ie: the Punisher which is getting a sequal simply because of DVD) make their money.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 5:45 AM

EARLY

Quote:
Originally posted by Quicksand:
*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi."

A director cannot save a bad script no matter how good he is. Actors cannot save a bad script no matter how good they are. Example: "Batman Returns." Great director (Tim Burton) and an all star cast could not help this movie because the script was just too weak. Not as weak as the next two Batman movies but you get my point. However a great script can make a good movie even with a bad director and bad actors. Now we all know that the director (Joss) is good. We also know that the actors are perfect for their roles. And if nothing else in this world is certain, Joss is a damn good writer. The movie is gonna be good and its gonna do good, because good movies, unlike good TV shows almost always do well. If I tell my friend to go see a movie because it is awesome he probably will. But if I tell him to tune into a show at 8:00 Friday night when he already plans to go see his highschool football game, or is taking his wife out to dinner he won't. Speaking of football the BDM is released at the beginning of football season, which might hurt sales a little. But it should still do well, and DVDs are going to do very well, so I have little fear that we won't get a sequal based on money.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 7:28 AM

If SERENITY is getting 2500 screens, I think we we'll average $8,000 easily. I know there is usually a dropoff but we have the cult advantage so I think the dropoff will be less than usual.
With the movie opening earlier in other countries we can toss that total in as well, which means opening weekend will give us more than 20 mil worldwide.

If the second week has a less-than-expected dropoff, then Universal will keep it in first run longer than two weeks. Plus the cult is worldwide as well, so feel good about a strong second week. Hopefully with word of mouth, the movie develop a set of "legs" that would make Stephanie Romanov jealous and we'll get our 80 million in four weeks or so.

It may take longer but we'll be giving it the kind of repeat business it needs to keep it from getting yanked out of general release.

I'm betting on us. 80 mil worldwide--I think we're gonna to this! And this is coming from someone who is a bona fide pessimist about everything else in life.

In the end you are absolutely correct. Go see the movie!

P.S. Maybe we should wave flags around here. Not in a jingoistic way, but maybe if the mods could give us some flag icons, we could use them in our posts, so we'd know the country from which the people we're talking to come.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 8:35 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by batmarlowe:
If SERENITY is getting 2500 screens, I think we we'll average $8,000 easily. I know there is usually a dropoff but we have the cult advantage so I think the dropoff will be less than usual.
With the movie opening earlier in other countries we can toss that total in as well, which means opening weekend will give us more than 20 mil worldwide.

If the second week has a less-than-expected dropoff, then Universal will keep it in first run longer than two weeks. Plus the cult is worldwide as well, so feel good about a strong second week. Hopefully with word of mouth, the movie develop a set of "legs" that would make Stephanie Romanov jealous and we'll get our 80 million in four weeks or so.

It may take longer but we'll be giving it the kind of repeat business it needs to keep it from getting yanked out of general release.

I'm betting on us. 80 mil worldwide--I think we're gonna to this! And this is coming from someone who is a bona fide pessimist about everything else in life.

In the end you are absolutely correct. Go see the movie!

P.S. Maybe we should wave flags around here. Not in a jingoistic way, but maybe if the mods could give us some flag icons, we could use them in our posts, so we'd know the country from which the people we're talking to come.

The way it typically works is that the studios get their highest portion of box office (in terms of percentage of each ticket and how it splits between studio and theatre chain) during the first 2 weeks, which is why opening weekend is so important. After the first two weeks, it's typically another 4 weeks before there is another dropoff. So it is usually VERY rare for a movie to not make it longer than 6-8 weeks in the theatre, unless you're talking about a theatre with less than 6 screens. 8 weeks would take Serenity into the Thanksgiving weekend, which might be a bit of a stretch, but 7 weeks is pretty likely - with Serenity exiting theatres when the new Holiday movies come in.

If Serenity can maintain 2500 screens for 4 weeks, and not drop below 1500 screens for the remaining 3 weeks, then the $80 million should get there. As long as there is consistent, steady business through the 4th week ($5-7 million) then the theatre chains will hang on to a movie, because during the 5th and 6th weeks is when they start to get a little larger portion of each ticket.

As was talked about at the beginning of this thread, Serenity is opening on a busy weekend.

It shares Sept 30 with Into the Blue (Paul Walker and Jessica Alba), The Greatest Game Ever Played (A Disney release), and A History of Violence (Viggo Mortensen). None of those will be big box office smashes, but they will likely keep most theatres from carrying more than one print of Serenity.

What is odd is that Universal has another movie coming out Oct 7, starring Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey called Two For the Money. Neither guy at this point is a box office magnet, so while it might beat Serenity, it won't hurt it either. The Wallace and Grommit movie (Chicken Run) is a different story, as it's likely to be a pretty big hit. But it's also likely to take the family audience, which isn't the competition for Serenity. The third movie that weekend is In Her Shoes, which is directed by Curtis Hansen (LA Confidential, Wonder Boys), so it will likely be pretty good, but starring Cameron Diaz and Toni Collette means that it won't open huge.

Oct 14 has Domino (Keira Knightley) and Elizabethtown (Orlando Bloom and Kirsten Dunst), as well as the remake of the John Carpenter classic The Fog. Those will all do decent business (with The Fog relying on the pre-Halloween horror boost), but again, none are big box office smash types, so Serenity should still be able to manage that $5-7 million.

Oct 21 is another big weekend in terms of number of movies, though none are likely to be big hits. There's Derailed (Clive Owen and Jennifer Aniston), Doom (based on the video game), Dreamer (think Seabiscuit, but with a kid instead of Tobey Maguire), Shopgirl (Steve Martin, Claire Danes, and the painfully funny Jason Schwartzman), and Stay (Ewan McGregor, Naomi Watts, Ryan Gosling). These will all chip away at Serenity, but it should manage to hang onto the top 10.

Oct 28 is when things start to heat up - there's The Legend of Zorro, which should do pretty well. There's also The Weatherman with Nic Cage that looks pretty good, and will do decent business. Add to that the Halloween crowd for Saw II (the first one is pretty creepy if you haven't seen it), and then there's Prime with Uma Thurman and Meryl Streep. If Serenity can remain in the top 10 this weekend, it will likely mean that it is topping $100 million.

So while there is only 1 big money type movie (Wallace and Gromit) coming for a month, there are a lot of smaller movies coming. And those will chip away ever so slightly at Serenity each week. It's important to still be making $3-5 million by the time Zorro and the Weatherman hit. If that's happening, then the $80 million should be there.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 9:05 AM

SAGRILARUS

Alright people, you all talk a good game, but let's make it interesting. Predictions please, on the total box office take through December 6th, two full months after initial release. Frankly, I don't think Universal gives a damn if the 80 million is opening weekend, domestic, international, or via private donation. To get the ball rolling, I'll come in with my prediction first.
Serenity is a Pulp Fiction, but not a Raiders of the Lost Ark.

$175 million worldwide by December 6th.

Person who is closest without going over gets bragging rights until the sequel comes out.

Sag.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 9:06 AM

ROLAND

Quote:
Originally posted by Quicksand:
*snarl* I didn't see "Fantastic Four" because it was directed by Tim Story, who gave the world "Barbershop" and "Taxi." Yes, every movie will receive negative reviews, but those first two received so many bad ones that you could build a battle cruiser from them. I watched the trailer for "Taxi" thinking, "THIS is the best stuff from the movie? THIS is how they're gonna get me to go see it?" Shockingly, pal, if the acting, dialogue and gist of the story are 0 for 3 in the trailer, 98% of the time, the movie will suck too. Try it, it works.

What is with the snarl and the attitude? I was just trying to say that people need to give a movie a chance before bashing it. I wasn't trying to start a fight. I saw the "Fantastic Four" trailer and thought it looked good. The critics bashed it so I started having second thoughts about seeing it. But because I disagree with most critic's choices, I decided to watch it. I, and my three friends who saw it with me, thought it was a very fun movie. I'm glad I decided to try watching it.

I also thought the "Stealth" trailer looked interesting. Having a limited budget, I will put off watching it until it goes to the movie channel, but I do plan on watching it.

"War of the Worlds" was a little different for me. I wasn't impressed by the trailer but watched it because my friends wanted to. We were all disappointed.

I guess the point is, if you like the trailer, try watching it. If you don't like the trailer, don't watch it. But don't bash something you haven't seen. I just hope that people who see the trailer and think it looks good, don't get persuaded out of watching it because of some bad reviews.

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Monday, August 15, 2005 9:08 AM