GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Serenity 3rd in weekend take

POSTED BY: WILDHEAVENFARM
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 5, 2005 13:22
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Monday, October 3, 2005 10:25 AM

WILDHEAVENFARM


Serenity opened at number 2, which is still really good all things considers. But look at this - our beloved BDM garnered more money per theater than any other movie this weekend. Here are those figures (in round numbers, this weekend's only) in order of box office rank:

Flightplan - $4391
Serenity - $4535
Corpse Bride - $3044
Into the Blue - $2509
Just like Heaven - $1722
Emily Rose - $1464

You get the picture. Be proud, my be-coated breathren! And keep up the good work.

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

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Monday, October 3, 2005 11:01 AM

JASONZZZ


Actually, all said and done, Serenity ending up averaging about $4635/theatre.

But.... i actually looks like History of Violence actualy did $6120/theatre (on its 2nd week too) and Proof did $4904 (on its 3rd week). Those are pretty strong showings.

Quote:

Originally posted by WildHeavenFarm:
Serenity opened at number 2, which is still really good all things considers. But look at this - our beloved BDM garnered more money per theater than any other movie this weekend. Here are those figures (in round numbers, this weekend's only) in order of box office rank:

Flightplan - $4391
Serenity - $4535
Corpse Bride - $3044
Into the Blue - $2509
Just like Heaven - $1722
Emily Rose - $1464

You get the picture. Be proud, my be-coated breathren! And keep up the good work.

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.




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Monday, October 3, 2005 12:01 PM

WILDHEAVENFARM


Quote:

Originally posted by Jasonzzz:
Actually, all said and done, Serenity ending up averaging about $4635/theatre.

But.... i actually looks like History of Violence actualy did $6120/theatre (on its 2nd week too) and Proof did $4904 (on its 3rd week). Those are pretty strong showings.




Yeah, I sorta deliberately left that out. I didn't see Proof, though.

Mary
Always a beast, never a burden.

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Monday, October 3, 2005 1:28 PM

EMBERS


I think that this is a positive statistic:
no theater owner is going to replace their top grossing movie...
so if they have both 'Serenity' and 'Flightplan' I think they would say that being #1 doesn't mean much to THEM,
that movie is obviously going to make even less next weekend and they can replace it,
but they should hold onto 'Serenity'....

I hope that if Universal puts out some ads showing our two thumbs up (because Ebert really did like it) then we may actually do better next week
(knock on wood)

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Monday, October 3, 2005 1:58 PM

JASONZZZ



Wouldn't bet on Universal doing anymore ads than what they've done... They are trying to do the grassroots thing, so more likely they release a little bit small (# of theatres wise) with little fanfare, 1st + 2nd week, they are waiting for grassroots excitement to build up. They'll do a review by the 3rd/4th week and do a bit more ads and open to more theatres *if* it looks right...

typical mkt fashion, it's their way for hedging their bet. It lets them pull out if things don't look right...



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Monday, October 3, 2005 2:02 PM

JASONZZZ



Check this out too...

same take last year was higher than this season...

Also, if you look at comparable Sci-Fi genre figures, it's a bit more clear too...

Star Trek; Nemesis - $18.5mil
Star Trek, Insurrection - $22.5 mil

So you might say, yeah, ST has a huge loyal (questionably) fanbase. But look at,

Sky Cap and the World of Tomorrow - $15.6mil


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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 2:45 AM

MIRAMEL


anyone know what they'll have to make to get another one?

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 2:49 AM

INEVITABLEBETRAYAL


Quote:

Originally posted by Miramel:
anyone know what they'll have to make to get another one?



The number floating around right now is $80 mil.

_______________________________________________
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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 3:25 AM

OPTIMUS1998


now correct me if i am wrong here, but the $80 Million needed to greenlight the sequals is Worldwide box office, andthe above figures are just (US) Domestic.

so Hey! 1 Country got us an 8th of the way there on opening weekend!
now if the other shiny folks around this shiny globe can do the same.........



"Always look on the Bright Side of everything, cuz that's where the light is, and you can see things."
- me, paraphrased from -

-- Monty python's - The Life of Brian

-------------------------------------------------
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REDEMPTION!
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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 3:41 AM

SKYSCRAPER


I don't about where you guys are, but in almost every theater where I live, Serenity only showed in one screen per theater, and only 4 times a day. It makes sense. Serenity is an unknown, Flightplan was getting an audience. That will change.

What sucks, is in my brothers town they have 3 theaters. An 8 screen, 12 screen, and 15 screen. Only 1 theater is showing Serenity. And again, only 4 times a day.

I think the movie might follow the same growth the TV show did, slow and steady. Slow and steady motions also have this very strong side effect... momentum. Regardless of sales, Joss did the impossible, because we wanted him to do the impossible. Momentum is what drives a TV show to get more fans long after it’s off the airwaves. Momentum is what drives DVD sales to a point that makes people take notice. Within weeks a lot more of the world is going to feel this momentum. I have no doubt we will hit $80mil.



---------------------
Once, just once, I want things to go according to
the gorram plan!

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 3:46 AM

KNIBBLET


Well, I for one don't have to see Flightplan after the local newscast spoiled the whole damn thing.

If you intend to see Flightplan, turn back now.
spoiler space
*
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*
*
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*
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There I was innocently watching the news when the talking head announced this:

It appears that nationwide, flight attendants are calling for a boycott of Flightplan.

Why? The Air Marshall and the senior Flight Attendent are the bad guys. They kidnapped Foster's character's kid to blackmail/ransom her back.

Being portrayed as terrorists doesn't seem to be the worst offense this movie commits. What has their panties in a real bunch is: Seems that the movie makers portray flight attendants as rude. I'm assuming that flight attendants have never actually flown as passengers, cause this is NOT a surprise to anyone who has flown.
HORROR OF HORRORS


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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 5:19 AM

SKYDANCE


Huh. I'm not sure what airlines you're flying, Knibblet, but I'd try a different one. My experiences on Continental have all been good, and Delta & SouthWest flight attendants qualify in my book as downright friendly.

I think the numbers would be better if Serenity had been a better movie. Unfortunately, I didn't feel the story had the same level of cohesion and drama that the series pilot had, nor did it flow as well. The explosions were definitely higher-budget, and everything was shinier, but the various threads of the film just didn't mesh as well as they did in the pilot. *shrug* If I was a film critic, I could probably describe my disappointment better, but that's all I can give you.

Still ... I did go see it twice. *smiles* And I'm really looking forward to a director's cut on DVD! I think the movie might work better with an extra 20 minutes of drama.

__________________________
"They weren't cows inside. They were waiting to be, but they forgot. Now they see the sky and they remember what they are."

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 6:05 AM

NXOJKT


Jasonzzz wrote:
"Wouldn't bet on Universal doing anymore ads than what they've done... "

That would be my bet also. Putting aside their grassroots ideas, Universal has an enormously busy month.

Oct 7 - Two For the Money
Oct 21 - Doom
Oct 28 - Prime

Had Serenity opened at $20-25 million, Universal likely would have chimed in with their "#1 movie in America" ads this week. But with only a $10 million take, they are likely to turn all attentions this week to "Two For the Money". And after that, to "Doom".

Barring an extremely abnormal rise in box office, or an unexpectedly slow decline, it looks like the final US Box Office will be in the $25 million range. That'll leave a hefty $55 million for the international box office to carry if that $80 million is to be had.

Now, having said that, DVD sales certainly have changed the way that a movie is viewed success vs failure. And I still say that this film's giant X-Factor is Wonder Woman. If that makes $200 million, Joss will make whatever he wants to next.

So, this fan base has done the impossible before. I wouldn't past us doing it again. But the first weekend numbers were, to me, pretty disappointing.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 8:04 AM

EEP


Quote:

Originally posted by nxojkt:
Now, having said that, DVD sales certainly have changed the way that a movie is viewed success vs failure.



Exactly. I'd like to point out that The Bourne Identity wasn't a smash hit at the box office, but it caught fire on DVD. Its studio has said that without the huge DVD sales and rentals that the movie made, The Bourne Supremacy would never have been greenlit. So sometimes the DVD revenue really has a draw. There's a good chance that this will be a big factor this year especially, seeing as how box office intake is down so dramatically overall.

That said, I'm disappointed in Serenity's grosses as well. I was hoping for higher. If anything, this might be the push to get the rabid Browncoats back in the theater again this weekend. A strong second weekend is always a good thing.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 8:32 AM

NOSADSEVEN


Quote:

Originally posted by nxojkt:
And I still say that this film's giant X-Factor is Wonder Woman. If that makes $200 million, Joss will make whatever he wants to next.



Thanks for bringing this point up. One thing we will always have going for us is that Joss loves this 'verse as much, if not more, than we do. If things go well for him, things will go well for us.

~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ain't. We. Just.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 9:04 AM

BROWNCOATMONK


To be clear the History of Violence was in a super limited release last week so really this week is it's first week.

Also, there's no rationalizing the level of bad movies that people are increasingily willing to go see--case in point, Out of the Blue. Hmm, looks ridiculously stupid, most of the action is underwater without dialogue, and almost every reviewer that's been willing to see it says that it sucks. Look how many fricking people went out of their way to see that versus Serenity or even the few movies that are out that would qualify as well made movies (History of Violence being the highest one on the list). I mean Flightplan--come on from the first promo it just looks ridiculous and requiring a crazy number of miraculous coincidences to work. Sorry, the human race is definitely getting dumber.



Browncoat Monk

Ain't no place I can be since I found Serenity...

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 9:19 AM

JASONZZZ




So, at the end of it, I guess since this was suppose to be a grassroots campaign - and if we can all agree (even Ebert and most of the critics) that it's a great to fantastic movie, then ultimately, we (collectively) are at fault... The double-edge sword problem with these grassroots campaign is that it is pretty much completely dependent on the active grassroots. I don't know, maybe the Universal marketing department betted wrong, maybe they "didn't know how to start a grassroot campaign", maybe the artificial nature of the "grassroot campaign" turned some people off...

whatever it is, there's still have a chance of hitting $80mil *if* DVD sales are a part of it.


Quote:

Originally posted by nxojkt:
Jasonzzz wrote:
"Wouldn't bet on Universal doing anymore ads than what they've done... "

That would be my bet also. Putting aside their grassroots ideas, Universal has an enormously busy month.

Oct 7 - Two For the Money
Oct 21 - Doom
Oct 28 - Prime

Had Serenity opened at $20-25 million, Universal likely would have chimed in with their "#1 movie in America" ads this week. But with only a $10 million take, they are likely to turn all attentions this week to "Two For the Money". And after that, to "Doom".

Barring an extremely abnormal rise in box office, or an unexpectedly slow decline, it looks like the final US Box Office will be in the $25 million range. That'll leave a hefty $55 million for the international box office to carry if that $80 million is to be had.

Now, having said that, DVD sales certainly have changed the way that a movie is viewed success vs failure. And I still say that this film's giant X-Factor is Wonder Woman. If that makes $200 million, Joss will make whatever he wants to next.

So, this fan base has done the impossible before. I wouldn't past us doing it again. But the first weekend numbers were, to me, pretty disappointing.



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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 10:15 AM

NXOJKT


Quote:

Originally posted by eep:
Quote:

Originally posted by nxojkt:
Now, having said that, DVD sales certainly have changed the way that a movie is viewed success vs failure.



Exactly. I'd like to point out that The Bourne Identity wasn't a smash hit at the box office, but it caught fire on DVD. Its studio has said that without the huge DVD sales and rentals that the movie made, The Bourne Supremacy would never have been greenlit. So sometimes the DVD revenue really has a draw. There's a good chance that this will be a big factor this year especially, seeing as how box office intake is down so dramatically overall.




Even more dramatic than The Bourne Identity is Austin Powers. The first of those movies made a whopping $67 million worldwide. DVD made that movie a hit, and there were enormously succesfull sequels. Pitch Black made only $53 million worldwide, but the the rising star of Vin Deisel got a sequel. So it's still possible.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 11:01 AM

STAKETHELURK


Although it’s true box office take is down in general and Serenity didn’t do as well as we’d wished, I hope people don’t just forget the box office and start talking DVDs. It’s true that DVD sales will probably play an important role, but we shouldn’t bank on them this early in the game. The first weekend is over and already we’re talking about how the film can be saved by DVD? Give it some time, folks!

Right now, we still need to be concentrating on getting people in the theaters, for three reasons. The first, obviously, is so that they’ll add to the box office. The second is so that they spread word of mouth, because the best advertisement for the film is the film itself (“I just saw this great movie, Serenity! You HAVE to go see it!”). And thirdly, more people in the theaters means more customers when the DVD is out--every ticket sold (more or less) is a double buy; movie now and then DVD later. And we Browncoats have to turn out again this second weekend, to help keep the drop off from being significant. If the film has lower than average drop-off, it will be kept on more screens longer and thus have more time to rake in money and make converts through word of mouth.

To put it in perspective, we made back a quarter of the budget in the first three days. We have enormous critical acclaim. And, according to Uni’s statistics, 60% of those folks who went to see it last weekend were non-fans. This second weekend is probably more important than the first, and we’re going in with critical acclaim and a whole host of newbies who’ve just seen one of the best films of the year (though some ads with quotes from the aforementioned critics wouldn’t hurt, eh Uni?). Talk up the film (I recommend emphasizing its sheer quality and only revealing your fannishness if they seem to know something about it and want details, because the quality of the film is what a non-fan can truly appreciate), go see it again (preferably multiple times), post more guerrilla marketing if you can, and let’s see how it does. DVDs are going to help us a lot, but right now our focus should still be on the theaters. We’ve barely been out a week, we met Universal’s expectations last weekend, and the non-fans outnumbered the fans in the theater--we haven’t “failed” at the box office yet, we just need time to grow and we’ll get that time if we have a decent second weekend. So get back in line! The theater line, that is.

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 11:06 AM

MIRAMEL


well, clearly, this is all pointing to one thing: we gotta make all our friends go see it!

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Tuesday, October 4, 2005 12:41 PM

MER


You know the funny thing is KNIBBLET? I kind of knew that would happen for Flightplan. Yep, it's one those movies where it pretty much tells the whole movie in one trailer.

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 10:36 AM

SULLY


Quote:

Originally posted by Skydance:
I think the numbers would be better if Serenity had been a better movie. Unfortunately, I didn't feel the story had the same level of cohesion and drama that the series pilot had, nor did it flow as well. The explosions were definitely higher-budget, and everything was shinier, but the various threads of the film just didn't mesh as well as they did in the pilot. *shrug* If I was a film critic, I could probably describe my disappointment better, but that's all I can give you.



That's because the story tried to cover too much ground. Firefly works better with smaller, simpler episodes, where characterization is more important.

At times, Serenity felt as though we were being rushed from character to character. Maybe Joss wanted to make sure that everybody in the audience got to spend some time with their favorite. Or maybe Firefly newbies needed introductions. I have a feeling the film looks and feels very different to viewers who are experiencing the 'Verse for the first time.

Not that it was a bad movie or anything. It was a great movie -- a Big Damned Movie! I just would have prefered something tighter, personally.

One thing I haven't seen critics comment on is the ending. That was classy, real classy. Shows why Firefly is a cut above most sci-fi.

Looking forward to the DVD, too ...

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Wednesday, October 5, 2005 1:22 PM

ZOID



I've not seen anyone else mention it, so...

Is gasoline not pennies away from $3 a gallon where y'all live? I suspect that at least part of the dismal showing for all films in all theatres is that folks are sticking entertainment (and retail) spending dollars into their gas tanks.

I personally don't care if I have to forego eating for the foreseeable future. I purchased 4 tickets last week and will be getting at least another four this week. It will be on the weekend, though; so much for mid-week daily tallies. Likewise, my teenaged daughter reckons everyone at her high school is buzzing over Serenity; Friday and Saturday nights are high school date nights, primarily...

So, y'all hang in there. Gas prices are slowly coming back down and the young'uns are just catching on. Let's see how she flies this weekend before we start considering tatami mats and katanas...


Respectfully,

zoid
_________________________________________________

"I aim to misbehave." -Capt. Mal Reynolds, Serenity, a.k.a. 'the BDM'

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