Dare we hope? 'Firefly breaks 30 mil, on track for sequel?' by MaTwang

GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

Dare we hope? 'Firefly breaks 30 mil, on track for sequel?'

POSTED BY: MATWANG
UPDATED: Wednesday, October 26, 2005 23:45
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 6425
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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:00 AM

Found this article/blog thing in Google News this afternoon:

URL:
http://www.slashfilm.com/article.php/20051023204915276

Quote:
Joss Whedon's Serenity broke $30 million worldwide this past weekend. According to fan boy sites, this achievement may put it on track for a sequel. Maybe if all of you clap your hands while shouting "I do believe in fairies!" it may happen.

Do we dare to hope???

The total box office quoted in article is larger than the one on the front of FFF.net...

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:05 AM

FILLIONFLAN

I'm starting the clapping now...

...but d***, the writer of that article was nasty!

ZOE: “It’s just, the Captain’s so tense…”
WASH: “Of course he’s tense. He’s awake.”

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:13 AM

YORG

I don't care enough to email the writer back to say rude things to him.

But I am happy, however, that they broke 30 mil.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:24 AM

MEANGOLDFISH

i thought 80 mil was what we had to break for a sequel....?

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:28 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

A few more tickets on my behalf will be bought this weekend as I take another Serenity virgin to the show. Wait, umm.... she's not seen it yet. Serenity, I mean. Yeah, that's it.

" They don't like it when you shoot at 'em. I worked that out myself. "

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:31 AM

KNIBBLET

As soon as he loses his pesky virginity, he'll be much nicer.

http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/MN-Firefly/

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:44 AM

VANCOUVER

Quote:
Originally posted by yorg:
I don't care enough to email the writer back to say rude things to him.

But I am happy, however, that they broke 30 mil.

We broke 30 mil some time ago, I thought--when we were at 23 domestic, around the middle of last week and int'l was at 7. But that's just my math. Domestic should hit $25 mil by next weekend, hey? We're well above $24 now.

Those of you who aren't insanely obsessive about the numbers may not know yet that Serenity's actuals beat the estimates for the second weekend in a row, at least in relative terms. Estimates had us at #18, and actuals had us at #17. As well, we continue to be #1 on the Most Popular list for Boxofficemojo, despite the downer review of Serenity by that guy they have on there who as far as I can tell hasn't liked a single movie in his natural-born life. (Okay, he liked Batman Begins, which I thought was just about the dumbest movie I'd ever seen, but that's literally the only positive review on the site...)

You can find lots of less poisonous references to sequels and to the Serenity "franchise" than the one in this nasty quote or this nasty article, simply by reading reviews by people who don't know much about the Firefly/Browncoats history. These references are possibly less informed, and certainly more naive, but they are also less biased, and they could well be right: there seems to be a natural, commonsense, and fairly widespread assumption among media non-initiates that Serenity will continue.

At any rate, the sneery Tinkerbell references are just these guys saving face. What were they saying after the show got cancelled and we/Joss sought to get a movie made of it? They're just embarrassed.

And, on a different note, I have to think that, after this disastrous year in both movie and TV viewership, the studios are going to start looking at different business models--which, if these execs have a brain between them, will include building on established shows, established characters, "franchiseable" movies. If they feature no recognizable stars, so much the better: how much of War of the World's red ink went to Tom Cruise's salary? Serenity had 10 leading roles, and got made for less money than Elizabethtown.

It will all be good. You wait and see.

Vancouver

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 9:22 AM

GATORMARC

Quote:
Originally posted by Vancouver:
And, on a different note, I have to think that, after this disastrous year in both movie and TV viewership, the studios are going to start looking at different business models--which, if these execs have a brain between them, will include building on established shows, established characters, "franchiseable" movies. If they feature no recognizable stars, so much the better: how much of War of the World's red ink went to Tom Cruise's salary? Serenity had 10 leading roles, and got made for less money than Elizabethtown.

War of the Worlds has grossed over $600 million so far.

Elizabethtown was made for $45 mil vs. Serenity's $39 mil. I don't think that's a significant difference as far as the studios are concerned

As for your suggestion... that's pretty much what Hollywood has been doing for years.

Find an old TV show or movie... remake it. Find a successful movie... sequel it. Take a typecast actor and their genre, make another movie of the same type... find an old book... make the movie.

The problem as far as Serenity is concerned, is that they felt that the built in fanbase could carry the movie all by itself.

GatorMarc

Eat 'em up, chomp, chomp.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 9:35 AM

STAKETHELURK

Quote:
Do we dare to hope???

The total box office quoted in article is larger than the one on the front of FFF.net...

The box office listed on the front of the site is *US only.* The article refers to worldwide box office, ie US + International.

And when it comes to "fanboy sites," the author of this sneering article is probably referring to Tired Old Reaver's thread ( http://www.fireflyfans.net/thread.asp?b=2&t=14225), which is titled "A suit's eye view on Serenity and sequels." He makes a fairly convincing case from a cost management perspective that the BDM will be profitable and will encourage Universal to make sequels. Apparently, $30 million worldwide was an important threshold for our film to cross, from his perspective.

I sure hope he's right.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 9:38 AM

SCHIZORABBIT

i don't know. not sure how many theaters are gonna carry it after this week. i'm in atlanta, georgia and did a showtimes search for the coming weekend, and nothing--i mean, NOTHING--showed up in the whole state, not even in the multiplexes. hopefully, it's because the info hasn't been updated yet. looks like stuff like the new zorro and saw 2 are gonna swallow up a lot of those screen numbers. anyway, if the bdm is gonna make the requisite 80 million to ensure a sequel (fingers crossed, hope, hope...), it better do so fast.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 9:39 AM

BROWNCOAT1

May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.

Quote:
Originally posted by Knibblet:
As soon as he loses his pesky virginity, he'll be much nicer.

ROFLMAO!!!

So true! Once he loses it he might actually loosen up enough to take a look at the series instead of showing his limited knowledge by bashing something he never even saw.

Loser.

__________________________________________

"May have been the losing side. Still not convinced it was the wrong one."

Richmond, VA & surrounding area Firefly Fans:

http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/richmondbrowncoats/

http://www.richmondbrowncoats.org

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 2:53 PM

VANCOUVER

True, on all points. I shouldn't have used the term "red ink"; I meant it relatively, not literally. But they were expecting better domestic BO than they got, and were dismayed, if the murmurings among the execs was anything to go by, at the percentage drop, due to terrible word of mouth.

Elizabethtown is slated for a total of $30-$35 million, domestic, which would represent more of a loss than Serenity's--and it's in a supposedly lower-risk genre. (Of course, if Orlie's DVD fans come through as they did on Kingdom of Heaven, it will do boffo when it reaches stores.)

I think my point was, there's a decent business case to be made for continuing Serenity: a huge number of movies this year have been either unprofitable or disappointments, and studios are getting desperate to figure out how to stem the slide. Of course they have always looked at franchises and spinoffs and all that, but a proven, die-hard fanbase like Firefly's might start to look a little more significant when the ones they were just assuming, or hoping for-- like for Doom, say, or Lara Croft, or the second Charlie's Angels--turn out to be vapour in the event. ASSUMING that the DVD does as well as Nikki Rocco thinks it will, I would say that the movie has done pretty much what the studio thought it would, if not better.

Of course, continuing the movie as a franchise isn't the ideal outcome, judging by the current poll: the vast majority, including me, want the thing back on TV. Maybe, for a switch, the plague of media convergence will turn out to be a benefit.

Vancouver

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 3:45 PM

THESENTINEL

As far as the $30M mark is concerned...I think it will break $30M for EVERY sequel as well as long as they are on par with Serenity. I mean...we are fanatics aren't we? :)

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 4:08 PM

JRC

I posted this on the OB today.

This is a good idea for our BDSeries. Or maybe a made-for-TV movie like Farscape a couple of years ago.

Paramount Home Entertainment is launching a new DVD Premiere division to produce direct-to-DVD features from franchises the studio believes are underperforming at the box office but have devoted fan bases, like FOX has done with The Family Guy and Universal with American Pie.

Variety reports that releasing films directly to DVD to appeal to target audiences has reaped profits for other studios, and Paramount hopes to capitalise on the trend. "We are uniquely positioned to capitalize on the growing consumer demand for original DVD programming by utilizing the strength of all the Viacom brands," noted senior vice president Ellen Pittleman. Pittleman was behind the financing of the direct-to-DVD Bob Dylan documentary No Direction Home and Paramount Home Entertainment's Charlotte's Web 2: Wilbur's Great Adventure, based on the children's classic and released exclusively on DVD.

DVD Premiere department plans to release six to eight original DVD productions per year. Some of the productions scheduled for early 2006 may receive a theatrical release, such as Jonathan Demme's documentary about Neil Young's Prairie Wind tour. There will also be a direct-to-DVD sequel to Save The Last Dance starring Jacqueline Bisset and Izabella Miko.

Variety notes that unlike many studios who limit original DVD releases to projects acquired by outside producers, Paramount will develop and produce its own projects. Pittleman said that the facilities mirror the theatrical division, though most of the studio's DVD movies are shot in 21 days.

Which begs the question: might Star Trek features be produced by Paramount directly for the home DVD market, which would bypass the expense of a theatrical release and the limitations of a weekly serial?

The original item is at Variety.

Everyone dies alone.

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 4:37 PM

ANONYMOUS1

SCHIZORABBIT WROTE ON Tuesday, October 25, 2005 - 09:38

Quote:
i don't know. not sure how many theaters are gonna carry it after this week. i'm in atlanta, georgia and did a showtimes search for the coming weekend, and nothing--i mean, NOTHING--showed up in the whole state, not even in the
multiplexes. hopefully, it's because the info hasn't been updated yet.

Have you tried buying a Fandango ticket for a theater near you
even though you cannot attend BEFORE IT LEAVES THE BIG SCREEN ON
THURSDAY in your area?

Maybe the info hadn't been updated yet in my area too. But maybe
the theater owner noticed that Fandango ticket bought with no one
showing up.

More on another thread "Bought a ticket for Serenity today and did not use it."

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Tuesday, October 25, 2005 4:56 PM

VANCOUVER

Quote:
Originally posted by TheSentinel:
As far as the $30M mark is concerned...I think it will break $30M for EVERY sequel as well as long as they are on par with Serenity. I mean...we are fanatics aren't we? :)

Oh yes, of course it will. Anything to follow will do better than the original, because of a) the number of converts from movie to TV series and vice versa, which is having quite the exponential effect on the fanbase; and b) the converts sure to come when the movie DVD hits the stands. And $30 mil is not the end of it, for this Serenity. I mean, if the overall take were just $30 mil, and the cost continued to be $40 mil, that wouldn't make sense. The studio has to see profit in the DVDs and various peripheral sales (TV rights, etc). But that's exactly what Universal exec Nikki Rocco said, before Serenity came out: that the movie would hopefully tap and expand the Firefly fanbase (which it has) and then do "spectacular business" (I believe those were her words) on DVD. I have little doubt that it will do that, too. I don't know where the daunting and unrealistic $50 million domestic and $80 million int'l, much thrown about on these pages, came from; Ms Rocco seems much more level-headed. Perhaps she was talking more about why they'd gone ahead and made the first one, rather than why they would do future ones, I don't know.

Anyway, never mind sequels: we want the TV show back, dammit! I think we should congregate at the Golden Globes, holding up "Bring Back Firefly!" placards and chanting. That's something the entertainment media would never have seen before. If bloody FOX has the bloody rights, let's make them bloody embarrassed not to be using them. That's what I say.

Vancouver

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 4:15 AM

THESENTINEL

Quote:
Originally posted by Vancouver:
Anyway, never mind sequels: we want the TV show back, dammit! I think we should congregate at the Golden Globes, holding up "Bring Back Firefly!" placards and chanting. That's something the entertainment media would never have seen before. If bloody FOX has the bloody rights, let's make them bloody embarrassed not to be using them. That's what I say.

Vancouver

I'd settle for sequels...if I had too... :)

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 6:37 AM

2HARMONS

I think Serenity has a realistic shot at a sequel, or at least a straight to DVD sequel. If not, it should at least revive the series on television based on my below data.

As of today according to boxofficemojo.com, it has made 33.28 million worldwide and it has only been out for 25 days. Now I know that the number that was thrown out as a target profit was 80 million worldwide, but that was just Universal's unrealistically high hopes to make 40 million in profit + DVD sales.

Serenity should end up making between 42-52 million worldwide at the box office. Remember, it has made a combined $9 million as of yesterday in 9 other countries, and it still has around 19 countries to open in throughout the end of the year.

REMEMBER HELLBOY? It cost 96 million total to make (includes marketing) and it only made 99.6 million worldwide + DVD sales. It was already green lighted for a sequel and is in pre-production.

REMEMBER THE PUNISHER? It cost 53 million to make (includes marketing) and only made 54.7 million worldwide + DVD sales. It too was already green lighted for a sequel and is in pre-production.

You can check these facts at boxofficemojo.com

THE FIREFLY DVD: The firefly DVD has sold over half a million copies, probably around $20 million in sales, or more. It has been in the top 10 on Amazon.com for almost 3 years, and since the Serenity release it has stayed in the top 5. It is safe to say that the Serenity DVD will be a HUGE hit, and in my opinion should sell as much as the Firefly DVD, or possibly more, with the lower price tag. It should definitely sell more than Hellboy or The Punisher, which have already spawned sequels.

Here are the remaining worldwide release dates for Serenity. Let me know your thoughts….

Sweden 4 November 2005
New Zealand 10 November 2005
Mexico 11 November 2005
Netherlands 17 November 2005
Denmark 18 November 2005
Estonia 18 November 2005
Iceland 18 November 2005
Czech Republic 24 November 2005
Germany 24 November 2005
Hungary 24 November 2005
Switzerland 24 November 2005 (German speaking region)
Austria 25 November 2005
Italy 25 November 2005
Switzerland 25 November 2005 (Italian speaking region)
Belgium 30 November 2005
Argentina 1 December 2005
Finland 2 December 2005
Norway 2 December 2005
Turkey 2 December 2005
Peru 29 December 2005
Malaysia 19 January 2006

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 12:46 PM

REAVERINA1985RIVIERA

Quote:
Originally posted by MaTwang:

Quote:
Maybe if all of you clap your hands while shouting "I do believe in fairies!" it may happen.

Now people are giving me funny looks.

---------------------------------------------
The real-life box droppin', man-ape gone wrong thing, now without the pesky falling boxes

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 1:00 PM

KLOUD

Lol! Did you read in the article where it says Firefly/Serenity has no audience? My ***!!

"Oh, my God. What can it be? We're all doomed! Who's flying this thing? Oh, right, that would be me. Back to work."

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 1:15 PM

MSCKAREN

Quote:
Originally posted by 2harmons:

Switzerland 24 November 2005 (German speaking region)
Austria 25 November 2005
Italy 25 November 2005
Switzerland 25 November 2005 (Italian speaking region)

Odd...mojo is reporting a $20K take in Switzerland already. Did it open in limited release or is their a Swiss speaking region this is referring to? Switzerland is awfully tiny - how many regions does it have?!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Appears they've cancelled the show and we're still here. What does that make us?"
"Big damn junkies, Sir!"
"Ain't we just."
http://karenallover.blogspot.com/

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 3:29 PM

ZIPPLY

Twenty-three regions, actually. Some are little more than just a city. They're called "Cantons," as Switzerland is the Helvetican Confederation (of cantons), about 800+ years old I think. But basically three native-language areas, where either Italian, French, or various flavors of German are rather exclusively spoken depending on where you might happen to be. (If there are any Swiss browncoats out there, let me know if I've remembered this stuff correctly.)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled thread.

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Wednesday, October 26, 2005 11:45 PM

PURPLEYIN

heroes of cantons?

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