GENERAL DISCUSSIONS

competition for serenity on release day

POSTED BY: EST120
UPDATED: Monday, March 28, 2005 22:24
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Friday, March 25, 2005 7:35 AM

EST120


according to the schedule i looked at (which may be completely inaccurate), serenity is opening against two movies that are limited release and a roman polanski version of oliver twist. in fact, there does not appear (at this time) to be another action/sci fi movie opening in the month of september.

of course, no schedule is set in stone and there are undoubtedly movies that will be pushed back or pushed up. still, i think perhaps this may bode well for the movie we are all waiting to see.


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Friday, March 25, 2005 8:13 AM

MALICIOUS


Oh, I must have misunderstood your thread title. I was going to say that I would be the first one to be serene if it killed me, but you were talking about the BDM. My bad!

Mal-licious

Co-Holder of the Red Bell from Hell

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Friday, March 25, 2005 8:16 AM

EST120


Quote:

Originally posted by Malicious:
Oh, I must have misunderstood your thread title. I was going to say that I would be the first one to be serene if it killed me, but you were talking about the BDM. My bad!

Mal-licious

Co-Holder of the Red Bell from Hell



well, after waiting for as long as we all have AND going through the delayed release, i think we are all lacking a little bit of serenity and patience at this point.

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Friday, March 25, 2005 8:24 AM

MALICIOUS


I just pictured all of us Browncoats at the starting line and the gun going off then everyone running and pushing to be the first one to be serene.

It was funnier in my head.

Mal-licious

Co-Holder of the Red Bell from Hell

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Friday, March 25, 2005 8:45 AM

HARDWARE


Quote:

Originally posted by Malicious:
I just pictured all of us Browncoats at the starting line and the gun going off then everyone running and pushing to be the first one to be serene.

It was funnier in my head.




I'd say it's REAL funny in your head Malicious dear.

The more I get to know people the more I like my dogs.

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Friday, March 25, 2005 8:50 AM

ZEEK


I still worry about how well the movie will do. I really don't know of any advertising technique that will get the common movie goer to decide to give Serenity a shot. The will probably just see it as a niche movie and pass it over.

I guess we'll all just have to see it enough times to offset that effect.

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:02 AM

EST120


Quote:

Originally posted by Zeek:
I still worry about how well the movie will do. I really don't know of any advertising technique that will get the common movie goer to decide to give Serenity a shot. The will probably just see it as a niche movie and pass it over.

I guess we'll all just have to see it enough times to offset that effect.



i understand your point of view. i would, however, like to add that in my opinion, there are very few movies that have a built in audience. there are plenty of movies that are reasonably original (such as original is truly original these days) that do quite well in the theatre in their particular genre.

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:07 AM

THATWEIRDGIRL


Quote:

Originally posted by Malicious:
I just pictured all of us Browncoats at the starting line and the gun going off then everyone running and pushing to be the first one to be serene.

It was funnier in my head.



*snort* omg, it is hi-larious in my head!

www.thatweirdgirl.com
---
Can we not revel in our cyber-love?

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:22 AM

EMBERS


Quote:

Originally posted by Malicious:
I would be the first one to be serene if it killed me


Not me, I'll be jumping up and down with excitement,
and definitely 'going off on' anyone who tries to cut ahead of me in line!

I'll be surprised if any Sci-fi films come out of the blue to compete in Sept,
I think most of them have set release dates...
and I think that Universal made a good call,
we'll have several months before the Winter block busters
to be able to build an audience
and rack up some box office dollars!

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:31 AM

SOUPCATCHER


I didn't feel that way at the time, but I also think Universal's decision to hold off was a good one. There are a large number of movies expected to do well opening the week before, the week of, and the weeks after April 22nd.

In looking at a comparable stretch of time around September 30th, it looks like Serenity has a good likelihood of not being challenged (all the numbers on this page mean are that's what fantasy movie stock players think those movies will gross in the first four weeks of release):
http://www.hsxresearch.com/charts/future_release.jsp

*editted to add: Although I am concerned that either The Corpse Bride or The Pink Panther may have staying power (they open the week before).

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:38 AM

CALIGARI


Quote:

Originally posted by est120:
according to the schedule i looked at (which may be completely inaccurate), serenity is opening against two movies that are limited release and a roman polanski version of oliver twist. in fact, there does not appear (at this time) to be another action/sci fi movie opening in the month of september.




According to Box Office Mojo, who seems to have a handle on such things, yes, it does seem that _Serenity_ will open with very little competition. The week before, however, there's _Tim Burton's Corpse Bride_ and _The Pink Panther_ remake and a Al Pacino drama, and the week after is the _Wallace and Gromit_ movie. Opening day is important, and assuming that Burton or _Panther_ doesn't undercut overall attendance, _Serenity_ has a good shot at #1 for that week.

Legs at the box office are also important, 'cause a theater, what's more, a theater _chain_, can cut a film loose pretty quickly. Go opening weekend, of course, but I think going, say, the weekend that _Zorro 2_ comes out, three weeks later, can send a particular message to All Concerned....

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:59 AM

TETHYS


Quote:

Originally posted by Malicious:
I just pictured all of us Browncoats at the starting line and the gun going off then everyone running and pushing to be the first one to be serene.

It was funnier in my head.

Mal-licious

Co-Holder of the Red Bell from Hell




Does this mean I get to knock ya to the ground at the cinema IN PERSON?!?!

LOL :P

"Your mouth is talking. Might wanna look to that"
I am: http://redwing.hutman.net/%7Emreed/warriorshtm/bigcat.htm

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Friday, March 25, 2005 10:01 AM

ZEEK


Quote:

Originally posted by est120:

i understand your point of view. i would, however, like to add that in my opinion, there are very few movies that have a built in audience. there are plenty of movies that are reasonably original (such as original is truly original these days) that do quite well in the theatre in their particular genre.


I don't know. I tend to think most movies that do well at the box office are those that have pretty well defined genres. Shoot em up action movies have a set of people who will go see them. Romantic comedies have a set of people who will go see them. Dramas have their group. I guess we get the scifi group at best. Though I don't even see Firefly really appealing to the whole scifi community. It's not a big war in space with aliens. I usually try to tell potential converts that Firefly is about the people not the setting.

Bah maybe I'm just worried because I've run into a few potential converts who just can't seem to get past the western in space thing.

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Friday, March 25, 2005 1:24 PM

SALTYGOODNESS


I think your concerns are valid, ZEEK, but I also have never seen such chatter about a movie so far in advance....FFFans are truly dedicated! I forsee my dilemma as being "how do I satisfy my curiosity about how well the movie is doing when I am sitting in the theatre watching SERENITY over and over again?" I am going to be dying to know how much the film is making on opening day/weekend/week, etc. Guess I will have to bring a laptop?

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Friday, March 25, 2005 7:55 PM

CALIGARI


Quote:

Originally posted by SaltyGoodness:
I am going to be dying to know how much the film is making on opening day/weekend/week, etc.



www.boxofficemojo.com has functions that allow you to track a film's take on nearly a daily basis, averages per screen, and where a film stands compared to other releases. It's a filmgeek timesink....

http://www.livejournal.com/users/tomehoarder/

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:32 PM

TOMANTA


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:

*editted to add: Although I am concerned that either The Corpse Bride or The Pink Panther may have staying power (they open the week before).



I'm more concerned about second-week openings competing with Serenity.

Corpse Bride I don't think will be a problem. It will do well the first weekend, but its second weekend most of Serenity's audience that want to see it likely will have.

Pink Panther...depends on the critic reviews. This summer is LOADED with sure-to-be-horrid remakes, mostly of TV shows. By September people will be sick of them. But I don't think PP's audience is the same as Serenity's first-week, so I don't see a problem there.

I think the BDM needs two good weekends at the box office. The first weekend is not a problem, the fanbase is large enough to support it. Second week is the word-of-mouth week... that's the weekend that needs to be free of competition.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

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Friday, March 25, 2005 9:35 PM

NYWOE


Quote:

I also have never seen such chatter about a movie so far in advance


Lord of the Rings was comparable. Of course, that's a good sign.

I have heard of a place where humans do battle in a ring of Jell-O.
--Teal'c

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Saturday, March 26, 2005 11:27 AM

PIGEON


I think Serenity will appeal to a lot more than your standard sci-fi audience. I have been talking up the Firefly DVDs on a women's online group and getting more FF converts...because they all think Mal is a major hottie! (It probably helps that a couple of us post pics of him on the board).
So don't discount the non-sci-fi movie-goers. Serenity has a great chance at being big.
Talk it up to your "normal" friends, especially online buddies.

Pigeon
Newly converted to FFFandom Feburary 2005

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Saturday, March 26, 2005 11:59 AM

DIETCOKE


So does that mean I have to start working out to get in shape for the starting line? ;) I think everyone who goes should wear something Fireflyish so we can all seat together like one big happy extended family.

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Saturday, March 26, 2005 12:20 PM

DIETCOKE


Even Firefly fans like me love the show and I'm not into Science/Fiction. So yes, it definately will appeal to others.

We just have to make sure we bring our friends to see the show the second week.

Can't wait!

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Sunday, March 27, 2005 10:45 PM

YT

the movie is not the Series. Only the facts have been changed, to irritate the innocent; the names of the actors and characters remain the same


Quote:

Originally posted by Tomanta:
The first weekend is not a problem, the fanbase is large enough to support it.


How many fans are in the fan base?
If tickets are $10 each, how many tickets will each fan have to buy to make the opening weekend a success?

Keep the Shiny Side Up . . . (wutzon) Rolling Stones, "Tumbling Dice", from "Exile On Main Street"

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Sunday, March 27, 2005 11:56 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Tomanta: Sounds good. And looking at the schedule, there's not much that should draw business away from Serenity the second, third, and fourth weeks.

YT: It's funny you should ask. I was playing around a few weeks ago and cranked through some numbers. We need to average 80 tickets sold per showing on Friday and Sunday and 120 tickets per showing on Saturday.

(Whole shitload of assumptions went into those calculations. Backwards engineering with minimal expected accuracy. Excellent precision. Lousy accuracy.).





Assumptions
Cost of ticket: $6.25 (boxofficemojo 2005 number)
Number of screenings per theater: 5
Number of theaters opening weekend: 3000 *
Target goal for Friday/Sunday opening weekend: 7.5 million **
Target goal for Saturday opening weekend: 11 million **
Target goal for opening month: 70 million ***
Target goal for domestic US run: 85 million ****

* about what Constantine, Sin City, and Sahara are opening/opened with.

** based on general observation that if x = friday box office, saturday is often 1.5x and sunday is often x.

*** based on HSX (opening weekend)*2.8 is a decent predictor of first month's box office

**** I was thinking we'd have to make 100 million but I remembered numbers from people wired into the industry (can't remember which thread) going as low as 70 million so I split the difference. Also, most of the take is in the first month (anywhere between 70 - 95 % based on ad hoc observation) so I just pulled a number somewhere in the middle on that one.


Mucho rounding. I expect I'm off by an order of magnitude. Slap a factor of safety on it. Good enough for government work.

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Monday, March 28, 2005 12:28 AM

YT

the movie is not the Series. Only the facts have been changed, to irritate the innocent; the names of the actors and characters remain the same


Quote:

Originally posted by SoupCatcher:
Target goal for Friday/Sunday opening weekend: 7.5 million **
Target goal for Saturday opening weekend: 11 million **


Seems you & I think alike, as to the number we need from opening weekend. I think the fan base is way too small to generate this number. We need Universal to market the BDM. I hope they put the date in the trailer.

Keep the Shiny Side Up . . . (wutzon) Sarah McLachlan, "Building a Mystery", from "Surfacing"

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Monday, March 28, 2005 2:30 AM

RIVERGIRL



.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."


what is this from??


and on topic I plan on going at least opeing day and the 2nd weekend

Also, I can kill you with my brain.

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Monday, March 28, 2005 4:27 AM

TOMANTA


Quote:

Originally posted by rivergirl:

.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."



what is this from??



Monty Python & The Holy Grail.

"Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government."

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Monday, March 28, 2005 7:41 AM

ZEEK


Quote:

Originally posted by dietcoke:
I think everyone who goes should wear something Fireflyish so we can all seat together like one big happy extended family.


Granted I want to do that myself, but this is the type of reaction I get from "normal people" when I mention Firefly. They think it's a cult movie for mega-nerds. That is not going to bring in joe moviegoer. The best we can hope for is strong word of mouth after opening weekend. If we get even 1% of the average market and they love it that can really blossom the numbers for the second weekend.

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Monday, March 28, 2005 3:15 PM

SOUPCATCHER


Quote:

Originally posted by YT:
Seems you & I think alike, as to the number we need from opening weekend. I think the fan base is way too small to generate this number. We need Universal to market the BDM. I hope they put the date in the trailer.


The one thing I left out (in an effort to be overly pessimistic) was any subsequent box office success from word of mouth. I actually think the movie will have more staying power than some of the more recent first-month-and-out openers. But I didn't want to throw that into the numbers. There's a nagging voice at the back of my head that tells me I have too much faith in Joss' ability to get his vision across. That voice is very quickly shouted down, but it crops up on occasion. Hence the conservative estimates.

The main thing is to do our best the second, third and fourth weeks and let the accountants sort it out.

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Monday, March 28, 2005 10:24 PM

BLUEBOMBER


Quote:

Originally posted by Zeek:
this is the type of reaction I get from "normal people" when I mention Firefly. They think it's a cult movie for mega-nerds. That is not going to bring in joe moviegoer. The best we can hope for is strong word of mouth after opening weekend. If we get even 1% of the average market and they love it that can really blossom the numbers for the second weekend.



Remember "Sideways," an "indie" film with very little marketing and only a fraction of the budget most big studio projects get, has been getting a lot of attention in the past couple of months. And "Pirates of the Caribbean," which everyone thought was gonna crash and burn (pirate movies almost never get greenlighted) turned out to be one of the top-grossing movies that year.

I know that those are only two rare examples; exceptions to the rule. My point is -- it can happen. The BDM is gonna rock the box office.

When I think about it, though, I am actually a little relieved the release date got pushed back. Not having to go up against "Star Wars: Episode 3" is DEFINITELY a good thing.

As for dressing "Firefly-ish," I'm all for it. I would've dressed up for "ST: Nemesis" too if I'd have gotten my costume in time. I wonder where I can find me a sheperd's outfit... or maybe a pair of tightpants?

"Mwah ha ha...Mine is an evil laugh. Now die."

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