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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

The-Numbers shaved its predictions for Avatar 2 domestically from $770 Million to $765 Million domestically, but I don't think it will even be close to that in the end.

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January 23rd: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $765 Million]

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While it’s topping the chart again, The Way of Water is continuing to lose steam in domestic markets. It’ll miss our model’s prediction by 28%, and the predicted final total for the domestic market declines from $765 million going into the weekend to $748 million today.

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Well, well... $748 Million, huh?

The-Number's second lowered Domestic Projection is EXACTLY what I said Avatar 2 would make in the end if it managed to maintain its $40 Million dollar lead it had after Thursday night.

However...

You'd better go lower.

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January 26th: [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

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I'm also anticipating another drop in the The-Numbers' prediction for Avatar 2's domestic take when the weekend predictions come out tomorrow.

Is tomorrow the day they predict that Avatar 2 will make less than Maverick did domestically, or will we have to wait another week for that prediction?

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January 27th (early): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

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Let's see how low The-Numbers drops the Domestic prediction for Avatar 2 the third week in a row. If they're claiming more than $725 Million at this point, they're suffering from wishful thinking. If they still think it will make over $742 they're insane and need to fix their model.

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January 27th (late): [The-Numbers Prediction for A2: $748 Million]

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Also, they made no mention of changing their prediction for the final take. It probably makes sense that they didn't with a weekend prediction that high.

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Wow...

Despite just a small dip in The-Number's Weekend 7 prediction (3% more of a loss than they expected, vs 12% better than I'd thought it would have done), it appears that they've savagely downgraded Avatar's final domestic take in their model, dropping it far below what I even would have predicted at this point.

$665 Million is what they think it will end up with now, which is $53+ Million shy of Maverick's domestic total.

Maybe Bruce has been looking at my thread.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/253500830-2023-market-forecast-Avatar
-helps-boost-our-2023-prediction-to-8-8-billion

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Wednesday, Day 48, $1,078,480. A2 gets spared of the embarrassment of a sub-$300 per theater day today by netting exactly $300. If A2 lucks out and this week is one where it makes a bit more on Thursday than it did Wednesday, it will manage to stave that off until next week. Possibly longer if they announce a hard drop in theater counts tonight or tomorrow. (My prediction a while back for A2 theater counts for this weekend was 3,200 or less).

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (January 31st):
Avatar 2's Monday (Day 46): $1,174,887; Maverick's $2,041,252... And Maverick was already in 3rd place in the Domestic Box Office by this time.

It took Maverick 74 days to get that low.

Maverick made $8,549,925 Monday through Thursday in Week 7. Avatar 2 is going to make less than $5 Million this week.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
The-Numbers is going to go out on a limb and predict $13.1 Million for the weekend; higher than any other site predicted. It beats Maverick's Weekend 8 but $800,000 if that happens.

I seriously doubt it. It would have to best Maverick's 21% dip that weekend and have only an 18% dip. The only thing that Avatar has been beating Maverick at in the states has been seeing poor numbers in every category weeks before Maverick did.

The $13.1 prediction puzzles me. Bruce just put out an article recently lowering his prediction for Avatar 2 all the way down to only $660 Million Domestically, but if he still believes that A2 is going to be pulling in $13M on weekend 8 and it isn't going to start quickly going down the tubes, it will end up with a lot more than that by the end of its run, considering it's already at $625M +.

I'm going to stick to my guns and say $9M for the weekend, although an $11M weekend is still well within the realm of possibility if the two new flicks under-perform.

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As of Friday morning, Avatar: The Way of Water needed about $64 million to top Titanic. This weekend, I expect The Way of Water t0 sail toward $8-10 million stateside and around $30+/- million internationally, so conservatively call it $35-40 million, cutting the distance between Avatar 2 and Titanic to somewhere between $20-30 million.

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While it was always possible it would lose the No. 1 spot this weekend, it wasn't a sure thing that it would drop until the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania on February 17, so dropping two slots at once is something of a surprise.

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Avatar: The Way of Water only took in around $10 million domestic this weekend, which is about half of what the original film made on the same weekend, when it slipped to No. 2. This would seem to indicate that the film's rapid rise up the charts has hit the brakes. While it will likely continue to rack in huge numbers in international markets until Ant-Man 3 premieres, it's looking incredibly unlikely that the Avatar sequel will even crack the Top 5 domestic releases of all time.

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However, Avatar: The Way of Water is almost certain to topple Titanic as the third highest-grossing film of all time in the worldwide market. It remains to be seen how the film will perform overseas over the next two weeks. However, that seems to be its major window to close the gap between its current place and the all-time No. 1 slot, which is still looking like a much loftier goal than it did a couple of weeks ago.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Avatar 2 will post it's first sub-Million domestic day Monday (Day 53)... Something that took Maverick 76 days to do.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Once Thursday's A2 numbers are in, its lead over Maverick going into Weekend 9 will be just around $14.5 Million.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
A2's Friday projection: $1,691,000

It's got a lot of ground to make up if it's going to match The Numbers' model prediction of $9,220,000. Bruce did say though that he thought the model was high and it will more likely be $8,500,000 for Weekend 9. Personally, I'm betting on $7,750,000 for the weekend.

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A2's lead over Maverick at Day 59 is now down to only $11,082,849. It may be as high as $11.5 Million once the real numbers roll in tomorrow.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce doesn't even bother mentioning A2 in his article for the weekend for the first time.

His prediction for Weekend 10 is $6,190,000.

Nope. It's not going to make a dime more than $5,500,000.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Bruce doesn't even bother mentioning A2 in his article for the weekend for the first time.

His prediction for Weekend 10 is $6,190,000.

Nope. It's not going to make a dime more than $5,500,000.

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I made an error in my prediction here. I forgot that last Sunday was Super Bowl Sunday and it artificially lowered last weekend's take. A2 has made more money on Sunday in all but 3 of the weekend's it has been released, usually by quite a bit. So with the $1.3 Million projected for Friday, it likely will make what Bruce said or possibly 100 or 200k above his prediction if Friday's projection isn't high.

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It had a surprisingly low Cheap Ticket Tuesday at only $662,015 after a President's Day showing of $1,511,832. (There must be a lot of Government Employees who wanted to see it again?).

I could be wrong, but this could be really bad for A2's numbers this week, since aside from holidays Tuesdays always outpace Monday, Wednesday and Thursday by quite a bit. We'll know once Wednesday's numbers come in later today, but I think A2's run in the theater might be just about done in the States.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My bet is that Maverick will close the gap to around $250-$550k after Thursday night, and on Friday Maverick will take over the lead for the Domestic Box Office and it will all be over.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
My bet is that Maverick will close the gap to around $250-$550k after Thursday night, and on Friday Maverick will take over the lead for the Domestic Box Office and it will all be over.

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Yup. Tonight is the night.

A2's lead after Thursday (Day 77): $382,711.

Maverick made $1,976,161 on Day 78.

A2 won't make $1 Million.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.

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Day 83: Maverick's lead is $4,949,540.

It will be about $5.5 M going into the weekend.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (January 28th)
So if A2 can't make up ground on the weekends going forward, it's now a game of attrition.

And I suspect that while it was a great boon for Avatar 2 to have such high ticket prices in the beginning, it's going to be a detriment on the back end. Not only that, but large scale theaters with IMAX screens and 3D cost more to operate and are likely to be shutdown to this movie sometime soon as the per-screen average continues to fall... much quicker than it did for Maverick.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Day 85: Maverick's lead is $6,490,375.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
By Day 87 Maverick made just shy of another $10 Million. A2 will be lucky to make $4 Million by Sunday night, so Maverick should be up somewhere close to $9 Million in another week.

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Day 83: Maverick's lead is $4,949,540.

It will be about $5.5 M going into the weekend.

Probably won't be $9 M after the weekend though. I think I aimed a tad high on that one.

More likely in the range of $8.3 to $8.5 Million.

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Growing up in a Republic was nice... Shame we couldn't keep it.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
You've never thought critically once in your life, dipshit. Why don't you stick to cheerleading war with Russia in the RWED, you warmongering, Neo-Lib waste of carbon,

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Awwwwwww...

Somebody is just butthurt that Avatar 2 didn't do well here.

:(

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It was supposed to be number 1. All the articles and critics predicted it would be number 1.

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
It was supposed to be number 1. All the articles and critics predicted it would be number 1.

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Serenity (2005) was predicted to be number 1. All the articles and critics (who were Browncoats) predicted it would be number 1. I wonder what happen?

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Maverick's lead is now $9,948,060 after Day 90 (Wednesday) and will be over $10 Million entering the 14th weekend.

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Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK: (February 15th)
I still don't know why Bruce had lowered his prediction for A2's final take all the way down to only $660 Million domestically a week or two back. I said at the time I thought that was way too low.

I think theater counts are really going to drop soon and the new Marvel drek comes out this weekend, but it's already at $649+ Million. Even though it won't come close to touching Maverick's $718+ Million, it will beat $660 Million by quite a bit, IMO.

Until we have more info after this weekend, I'm going to split the difference and call it $689 Million for A2's final domestic take. But really that depends on how quickly the Theater Owners want to get it out of their theaters. If it doesn't come close to Maverick's 203 days in the theaters, it probably isn't going to make another $40 Million, so the high cost of showing it coupled with the high ticket prices might really hurt it on the back end, like I predicted quite a while ago.

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