CINEMA

The Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Failure Thread

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Saturday, June 8, 2024 15:20
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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 2:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


As a fan of the franchise since childhood, I hate saying it... But without even seeing a production budget listed anywhere yet, I'm almost 100% sure this is going to be Sony's next big failure in 2024 after Madame Web.

Dune: Part 2 cost $190 Million. Argylle cost $200 Million. Universal's upcoming Twisters cost $200 Million. Though it's true that Sony only paid $80 Million to make Madame Web (allegedly), there wasn't much in the way of special effects on that one and you can't have a Ghostbusters movie without plenty of budget for those.


Ghostbusters (2016) was unarguably a huge mistake for the franchise, but it was hardly the only one. Even Ghostbusters II from 1989 was a pale imitation of the original movie. But at least the reason they did that was understandable. They didn't make the original movie for children, but by the time the 2nd movie was being produced it had already become a post-He-Man and pre-Ninja-Turtles cultural phenomena among children. I'm sure I wasn't alone when my old man let me watch Ghostbusters with him and my younger brothers when I was only 5 years old even though it was very much an adult comedy at the time. And that led to the insanely popular cartoon that ran in syndication after school for YEARS both leading up to and well after the 2nd movie had been made, all while selling so many toys it makes Disney and Hasbro of the 2020's wish for the good old days.

So they heavily nurfed the sequel. Most of the adult humor was gone. There was still enough subtle humor in it that adults wouldn't completely groan while taking their now older kids to watch it, but part of the original magic was gone. Even my 10 year old brain knew that to be the case by the time I walked out of the theater after seeing it.

And after that, time just passed and Ghostbusters became nothing more than a good memory of childhood. I don't think anybody who was there and enjoying that moment grew up longing for any more Ghostbusters stuff to be made. If we ever wanted to, we could just go back and watch the original movies and when the series came out on DVD we could watch those if we wanted to. But even by that time we already had things like Adult Swim on cartoon network and subversive Anime translations hitting the large retailers at affordable prices instead of the super-expensive imports that you'd find in malls at shops like Sam Goody or fye. As good as Ghostbusters the cartoon was at the time, it was really just a kid's cartoon... especially after the 1st season and the studio meddling. If you were a 20 something going on 30 something and still watched cartoons, there was a lot of stuff out there that was geared much more toward your current demographic than your childhood favorites.

Decades went by and Bill Murray (probably wisely so) just wouldn't let a 3rd Ghostbusters movie take place before Harold Ramis died.

And then 2016 happened. And hoo-boy, did that get blown far out of proportion by everybody.

I watched that movie. In fact, it's the last Ghostbusters property I've ever seen, and the only one I've watched in the last 15 or more years. It was exactly what I expected it would be. It was completely adequate for your standard Hollywood nostalgia-bait cash-grab. It was totally meh.

And honestly, the only reason I even bothered watching it is because it was SO culturally significant in 2016 that not only did everybody have their opinions on it one way or another whether they even bothered to watch it or not, but Hilary Clinton even used it as a plug in her Presidential campaign by meeting with the cast on one of those talk shows (maybe Ellen?), dressed up in a Ghostbusters jump suit and all.

I just had to see how bad this thing really was. And I was so disappointed by it. It wasn't good, but it wasn't bad either. It was just cynical is all. It's nothing that would ever reach a cult-like status 20 years from now because it was simply misunderstood at the time or because it was so hilariously terrible that you just wanted to watch it again and again and quote the dumb phrases. It will eventually be completely forgotten.



So, in what?... a peace offering? We got Ghostbusters: Afterlife in 2021. And I hate to break it to you, but it's arguable if that movie even broke even. I'm going to venture a guess and say that it did because this was 2021 afterall and we were still using a 2.0xRoT to gauge profitability when we now use 2.5xRoT. So at a cost of $75 Million it made $203.6 Million worldwide. Roughly a $50 Million profit here, and only because they spent so little compared to what they spend on your average Hollywood blockbuster just 3 short years later.

As lame as Ghostbusters II was, it had better returns than that, but the studio at the time wasn't happy with those returns and got cold feet about even discussing a 3rd movie.



So why is Frozen Empire going to be a failure?

Because without even seeing hints at what the production budget was, I can tell you for damn sure that it came in at nowhere near as little as the $75 Million that its predecessor cost to make. And also, it now needs to make 2.5x the budget to break even instead of only 2.0x the budget because of 3 years of Bidenflation. Afterlife's returns wouldn't have broken even under those conditions. Granted, not as many people had started going back to the theaters post-Covid when that movie came out as they have since last year. So it probably would have still broke even and made a little bit of money.

What will Frozen Empire's budget be?

My guess is in the $120 to $140 Million range, with me leaning back toward $120 Million. Sony, if nothing else, seems to do a better job than most of the studios not letting their budgets balloon out of control.

But unless this is a fantastic movie, it's not going to make the $300-$350 Million worldwide that it needs to break even. Especially since China won't even allow its citizens to watch a Ghostbusters movie.




I wanted to write this after seeing a reddit thread predicting its failure. Though I agree it will fail, I don't agree with all the reasons that random poster there said it would. I actually got a huge kick out of this point:

Quote:


Who is this movie for?

Ghostbusters does not have a strong target audience. It is a franchise from the 80s, but 80s nostalgia is already played out in Hollywood. Are they appealing to old fans? How many old fans of Ghostbusters are still alive post COVID?



How old are you dude? I'm guessing 16 or younger. I ain't mad at 'cha, because I remember when I thought that 30 to 50 year olds were ancient too.

But I'm happy to report that most of us are still alive and kicking.


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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 6:24 PM

WHOZIT


I'm hoping the film does well, they're trying to fix the mess from the 2016 flick. The trailer for 'Afterlife' was very good, the one for 'Frozen Empire' did seem that great. If it stinks the fan base will be sure to let us know.

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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 7:38 PM

JEWELSTAITEFAN


I plan to see it. I look forward to it, based upon the cast.
I don't have the impression it will fail. Afterlife did have a story to it.

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Wednesday, March 6, 2024 8:19 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
I'm hoping the film does well, they're trying to fix the mess from the 2016 flick. The trailer for 'Afterlife' was very good, the one for 'Frozen Empire' did seem that great. If it stinks the fan base will be sure to let us know.



I'm hoping it does well too, but I'm not going to see it. I didn't have any interest in Afterlife either, and I probably won't ever see that unless I'm out somewhere and somebody else wants to watch it for some reason.

I just don't think that it is going to make any money, for the budget reasons I stated above. If this thing cost any more than $100 Million to make I don't think the outlook is very good.

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Thursday, March 7, 2024 4:46 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
I'm hoping the film does well, they're trying to fix the mess from the 2016 flick. The trailer for 'Afterlife' was very good, the one for 'Frozen Empire' did seem that great. If it stinks the fan base will be sure to let us know.



I'm hoping it does well too, but I'm not going to see it. I didn't have any interest in Afterlife either, and I probably won't ever see that unless I'm out somewhere and somebody else wants to watch it for some reason.

I just don't think that it is going to make any money, for the budget reasons I stated above. If this thing cost any more than $100 Million to make I don't think the outlook is very good.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.



You should check out 'Afterlife', the end will bring happy tears to your eyes, you may forget about that abortion they made in 2016. Plus if this flick does well it'll piss off everyone who had anything to do with the 2016 flick, like the whiny bitches who stared in it.

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Thursday, March 7, 2024 4:56 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
You should check out 'Afterlife', the end will bring happy tears to your eyes,



Ehhhh... maybe I will.

Quote:

you may forget about that abortion they made in 2016.


Oh, trust me. Already long forgotten.

Quote:

Plus if this flick does well it'll piss off everyone who had anything to do with the 2016 flick, like the whiny bitches who stared in it.



That's always a fun time.

BTW... Anybody seen Paul Fieg around?

I don't think I've heard from that dude in at least 7 years now.

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Saturday, March 9, 2024 1:41 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


4 movies that will probably flop in 2024

https://bamsmackpow.com/2023/12/05/movies-that-will-probably-flop-at-t
he-box-office-in-2024/5
/


Not that I've ever heard of bamsmackpow.com before, but they are thinking the exact same thing that I am. Not only that, but they point out that Ghostbusters 2016 actually grossed more money than Afterlife did. I didn't even catch that until they mentioned it.

Jesus Christ... They're not wrong:

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ghostbusters-(2016)#tab=summary
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ghostbusters-Afterlife#tab=summary

Afterlife only made $1 Million more in the US than 2016 did, and it made $26 Million less worldwide than 2016 did. Not only that, but 2016 made $39 Million on bluray and DVD while Afterlife has only made $20 Million.

If you count inflation, 2016 lost even more money vs the budget, but on the flipside, it also grossed even more money than Afterlife did, both in the US alone and worldwide.

Quote:

Ghostbusters: Afterlife was a welcome return for the legendary franchise, providing audiences with a great legacy sequel that paid tribute to the original entries while also taking it in a new direction. It was a more consistent direction than the 2016 film and ultimately ended up becoming a bigger success story. However, here’s the surprise: The 2016 film actually grossed more at the box office.

The thing that separates 2016’s Ghostbusters from 2021’s Afterlife are the budgets. The former had a ridiculously high budget of $144 million, so even though it grossed $229 million, it still lost over $70 million. Meanwhile, Afterlife had a much more respectable budget of $75 million, which meant that its $204 million gross was ultimately a success. That said, it was a moderate success.

The movie itself was a triumph that restored order (and the original story) for the Ghostbusters franchise. Nevertheless, the decision to now produce a sequel in Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire does come with a major risk factor. If the budget is bigger or the gross is much smaller, we could have another Ghostbusters flop on our hands – and given how fun Afterlife was, we hope that’s not the case.



I don't see how this can possibly make any money given Afterlife's returns. Unless this far post-Covid the audience is huge compared to Afterlife and/or they luck out in a REAL lull in the box office and don't have any competition, and/or they somehow managed to keep the budget under $100 Million, this one is almost certainly going to be a loser at the box office.

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Saturday, March 9, 2024 9:36 AM

WHOZIT


A flick that's been flying under the radar is 'Cabrini', it has a 90% critics score on Rotten Tomato's and a 97% audience score. THIS, from a flick made by Angel Studios which the access critics hate. This is the same studio that made 'Sound of Freedom' which the access critics called right wing propaganda, and FYI, 'Cabrini' has the same director. This film has a strong female lead who takes on the system and becomes a Saint...and isn't woke. This film is all about the power of women and isn't woke, and dam near ALL the critics like it.

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Saturday, March 9, 2024 10:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
A flick that's been flying under the radar is 'Cabrini', it has a 90% critics score on Rotten Tomato's and a 97% audience score. THIS, from a flick made by Angel Studios which the access critics hate. This is the same studio that made 'Sound of Freedom' which the access critics called right wing propaganda, and FYI, 'Cabrini' has the same director. This film has a strong female lead who takes on the system and becomes a Saint...and isn't woke. This film is all about the power of women and isn't woke, and dam near ALL the critics like it.



Little weird when ALL of the critics like it, isn't it?

I know that they're getting better because they've got real fear that most of them are on their way out between media sites shutting down left and right and the fact that AI could do most of their jobs better than they can, but 90% critics score on an Angel Studios movie directed by the guy who made Sound of Freedom?

Sus.

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Sunday, March 10, 2024 6:18 PM

WHOZIT


'Cabrini' is #4 this weekend, not an awful opening weekend for low budget flick.

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Saturday, March 23, 2024 10:24 AM

WHOZIT


Ghostbusters opened at $16 mill on Friday, it looks like it'll do OK. They believe it'll make around $43 mill this weekend, this will be OK, not great, but OK.

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Saturday, March 23, 2024 11:00 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Ghostbusters opened at $16 mill on Friday, it looks like it'll do OK. They believe it'll make around $43 mill this weekend, this will be OK, not great, but OK.



Really though, it only made $11.3 Million on Friday since they count the $4.7 Million in previews in that $16 Million number.


The good news AND the bad news is that it cost $100 Million to make. (I knew there was no way they were going to keep it as cheap as Afterlife's $75 Million). But at least it wasn't $200 Million.

It's going to need $250 Million to break even now.

As I mentioned earlier, any movie only making 80% to 99% of its production budget on opening weekend worldwide is in a coin-flip situation that it will ultimately break even before it's out of theaters.

What's the appetite for Ghostbusters internationally? If it only brings in $43 Million domestic, will it be able to bring in $57 Million outside of the United States and Canada when China won't be showing it?


I also don't know what kind of competition it's going to be facing in the coming weeks since I haven't been keeping up with movie information like I did last year. Maybe it lucks out and benefits from a weaker than normal box office like a lot of the late movies from last year like Wonka, Migration and Aquaman 2 did. At least they released it several weeks after Dune: Part 2 came out instead of a week before.

I still suspect that this movie loses money in the end. I may change my stance on that when the official international numbers come in on Sunday or Monday though.

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Saturday, March 23, 2024 12:00 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Ghostbusters opened at $16 mill on Friday, it looks like it'll do OK. They believe it'll make around $43 mill this weekend, this will be OK, not great, but OK.



Really though, it only made $11.3 Million on Friday since they count the $4.7 Million in previews in that $16 Million number.


The good news AND the bad news is that it cost $100 Million to make. (I knew there was no way they were going to keep it as cheap as Afterlife's $75 Million). But at least it wasn't $200 Million.

It's going to need $250 Million to break even now.

As I mentioned earlier, any movie only making 80% to 99% of its production budget on opening weekend worldwide is in a coin-flip situation that it will ultimately break even before it's out of theaters.

What's the appetite for Ghostbusters internationally? If it only brings in $43 Million domestic, will it be able to bring in $57 Million outside of the United States and Canada when China won't be showing it?


I also don't know what kind of competition it's going to be facing in the coming weeks since I haven't been keeping up with movie information like I did last year. Maybe it lucks out and benefits from a weaker than normal box office like a lot of the late movies from last year like Wonka, Migration and Aquaman 2 did. At least they released it several weeks after Dune: Part 2 came out instead of a week before.

I still suspect that this movie loses money in the end. I may change my stance on that when the official international numbers come in on Sunday or Monday though.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.



This is the second of the 3 they want to make, I think Dan and the boys (and girls) want to make up for the 2016 abortion that was, 'Ghostbusters: Lesbians with Lasers'.

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Saturday, March 23, 2024 4:30 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


I wish them the best.

I certainly not rooting for it to fail.

I just wish they'd managed to make the budget the same size or smaller than Afterlife's budget was.

Japan can make Godzilla Minus Zero for $15 Million, yet we can hardly seem to make a movie in the US anymore for under $100 Million outside of horror movies.

How much did Paul Rudd and the original cast make here? How much did the Stranger Things kids make?

They're all overpaid. Tom Cruise is the last real movie star. The rest of these people need to learn to start living on a more modest budget before Hollywood just gives up on hiring more well known names and the price tags they're used to charging and resorts to just using the no-name horror genre method of casting actors where they can cut the most corners on the production costs.


I hope they get to make that 3rd movie. But if they don't gross $250 Million + worldwide here I just wouldn't bet on it.


The Hollywood Reporter: ‘Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire’ Leading Weekend Box Office With Tepid $41M-$44M Opening

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/ghostbusters-froze
n-empire-box-office-opening-1235858952
/

Vulture: Ghostbusters’s Box Office Opening Weekend Is Frozen in 2021

https://www.vulture.com/article/ghostbusters-frozen-empire-box-office-
opening-weekend.html



Afterlife made $44 Million on opening weekend when we were still having much lower box office numbers in general from Covid.

Empire is going to need a big International number this weekend.

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Saturday, March 23, 2024 9:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Ughhhhh...

Come on guys... It can't be boring. Anything but boring.

Minor spoiler warning...



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Sunday, March 24, 2024 1:03 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh no.........

They made the main girl lame and gay with her lame and gay little relationship with a lame and gay girl ghost.

Jesus Christ


This movie is going to fail hard.



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Sunday, March 24, 2024 8:43 AM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Ughhhhh...

Come on guys... It can't be boring. Anything but boring.

Minor spoiler warning...



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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.



This makes me sad, Dave is a guy I respect. If he sez it's dull then I'll take him at his word.

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Sunday, March 24, 2024 10:49 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Yeah. It sucks.

But we can't give them a pass just because we want it to succeed.

It really wouldn't be that hard to please fans, but they don't ever seem to want to do that, even when they're pretending that they do.

They've got two options going forward.

1. Start making stuff that people want to see.

2. Slash the budgets to nothing if you can't bring yourself to do that.

That's Hollywood's only roadmap going forward.



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Sunday, March 24, 2024 12:04 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Rough weekend for the movie biz...

Kung Fu Panda drops to 3rd place and makes $6.2 Million less than Bruce predicted.

Dune: Part 2 gets 2nd place and makes $3.3 Million less than Bruce predicted.

Quote:

Frozen Empire will give the market a boost this weekend, but it’ll need to top $40 million if we’re going to have a $100-million weekend overall.


It looks like Frozen Empire made over $45 Million, which is about $7 Million more than Bruce's model predicted.

Immaculate made about half a million more than the prediction.

Despite Ghostbusters doing better than the predictions, there's zero chance this is a $100 Million weekend.



While I don't expect a monster 70% drop for Ghostbusters next weekend or anything, 55% or more is very likely. Hollywood had better start putting out some decent flicks this year.


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Sunday, March 24, 2024 6:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$61,600,000 Opening Weekend Worldwide.

Bruce is doing his best to spin this like a top, but it will hardly matter.

Frozen Empire needed to post big international numbers like in the $45 to $60 Million range here if it was going to break even. It made $16.4 Million Internationally.

Even if it doubles that current number worldwide by the end of next weekend, which is entirely possible, that will leave it at $120 Million, which is still less than half of what it needs to break even on a $100 Million budget.

It looks like it's got a staggered opening internationally and will be released in places like Argentina and Japan next week, so it should get some needed help on boosting those numbers.


The only thing it really has going for it is that aside from the Godzilla and Kong trash movie Hollywood is putting out, it doesn't appear to have very much competition in the coming weeks. As mediocre as Frozen Empire appears to be, I doubt very much that anybody is going to be running out to see the racist remake of Don't Tell Mom The Babysitter is Dead. But by that point nobody is really going to be going out to see Ghostbusters anymore either and we'll already know one way or another how much money this is going to lose.

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Monday, March 25, 2024 1:08 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So I decided to finally go and reference my 2023 spreadsheets to look at performance of movies on opening weekend vs. the end of their runs to get a real comparison to gauge Ghostbusters' chances here. The following is the list of movies that had a Worldwide Gross anywhere between 50% and 99% of their Production Budget on opening weekend and what that percentage was. I then follow that up with the final percentage of the budget that it made after it was out of theaters (As of 01/04/2024... I did update my spreadsheets at the end of the year, but I don't remember if I updated the 2023 Hollywood thread).

Remember, 250% is break even. Anything less is a loser, anything more is a winner.

Fast X - 93.82% / 210.17% (LOSER)
Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story - 89.83% / 196.41% (LOSER)
The Equalizer 3 - 97.14% / 265.27% (WINNER)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 87.44% / 224.45% (LOSER)
Thanksgiving - 84.00% / 306.04% (WINNER)
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 - 81.03% / 195.28% (LOSER)
Cocaine Bear - 80.00% / 257.05% (WINNER)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 72.86% 257.65% (WINNER)
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 70.56% / 217.24% (LOSER)
The Flash - 69.50% / 133.26% (LOSER)
Wonka - 65.60% / 503.20% (WINNER) *I got the current figure for Wonka since it's still in theaters.
The Little Mermaid - 65.52% / 227.34% (LOSER)
A Haunting in Venice - 61.67% / 189.33% (LOSER)
The Boogeyman - 57.14% / 235.27% (LOSER)
No Hard Feelings - 54.44% / 185.45% (LOSER)
Trolls Band Together - 53.26% / 211.46% (LOSER)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 52.54% / 211.71% (LOSER) *I got current data for this movie since it made a lot more after 01/04/2024.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods - 52.40% / 105.75% (LOSER)

Total list: 18 movies
Total losers: 13 movies
Total winners: 5 movies


Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.

If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.


Wonka was the only movie in 2023 that grossed 65% on opening weekend and ended up winning in the end. (And boy, did it win...)

No movie that was in the Top 100 Worldwide 2023 list at any point that made below 65% of the production budget worldwide on opening weekend ended up breaking even. The two that were closest was the low budget "The Bogeyman" and the stupid expensive budget "The Little Mermaid". [ETA: CORRECTION. Migration did at only 47.83%. See below.]



Just more evidence supporting my original argument that this was going to flop and a 3rd movie isn't likely to be made.

Sony Pictures killed themselves with that budget. Had they done the right thing and kept the budget to $75 Million like they spent on Afterlife, we'd be having a much different conversation about this right now.

In that case, it would be sitting at 81.8%, which would still be a steep hill to climb for the break-even point, but at least we'd be in a territory where there was at least some winners on the heap that started with similar openings.





ETA: OOPS! By only grabbing movies that had 50% opening weekends, I totally forgot about Universal's Migration. That opened with only 47.83% and went on to gross 400% of the budget (and it's still in some theaters today).

This really was an outlier for several reasons though. This was the little movie that could. Excellent word of mouth helped this one probably more than any other movie in 2023. It was also the benefactor of an extremely weak box office for the first 3 months of 2024 just as Wonka was.

And speaking of Wonka, at only a 65% opening weekend itself, it benefited massively from the same weak 2024 box office that Migration did. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire will not be so lucky.


Ghostbusters' only saving grace here is that it's getting a staggered international release and we may not have the full picture here yet. But that being said, with rare exception I didn't mark down in my notes any information about staggered releases for movies in 2023, so this might be quite common and it may already be reflected in quite a few of the movies on the above list.

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Monday, March 25, 2024 4:30 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
So I decided to finally go and reference my 2023 spreadsheets to look at performance of movies on opening weekend vs. the end of their runs to get a real comparison to gauge Ghostbusters' chances here. The following is the list of movies that had a Worldwide Gross anywhere between 50% and 99% of their Production Budget on opening weekend and what that percentage was. I then follow that up with the final percentage of the budget that it made after it was out of theaters (As of 01/04/2024... I did update my spreadsheets at the end of the year, but I don't remember if I updated the 2023 Hollywood thread).

Remember, 250% is break even. Anything less is a loser, anything more is a winner.

Fast X - 93.82% / 210.17% (LOSER)
Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story - 89.83% / 196.41% (LOSER)
The Equalizer 3 - 97.14% / 265.27% (WINNER)
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - 87.44% / 224.45% (LOSER)
Thanksgiving - 84.00% / 306.04% (WINNER)
Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 - 81.03% / 195.28% (LOSER)
Cocaine Bear - 80.00% / 257.05% (WINNER)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem - 72.86% 257.65% (WINNER)
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 70.56% / 217.24% (LOSER)
The Flash - 69.50% / 133.26% (LOSER)
Wonka - 65.60% / 503.20% (WINNER) *I got the current figure for Wonka since it's still in theaters.
The Little Mermaid - 65.52% / 227.34% (LOSER)
A Haunting in Venice - 61.67% / 189.33% (LOSER)
The Boogeyman - 57.14% / 235.27% (LOSER)
No Hard Feelings - 54.44% / 185.45% (LOSER)
Trolls Band Together - 53.26% / 211.46% (LOSER)
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - 52.54% / 211.71% (LOSER) *I got current data for this movie since it made a lot more after 01/04/2024.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods - 52.40% / 105.75% (LOSER)

Total list: 18 movies
Total losers: 13 movies
Total winners: 5 movies


Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.

If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.


Wonka was the only movie in 2023 that grossed 65% on opening weekend and ended up winning in the end. (And boy, did it win...)

No movie that was in the Top 100 Worldwide 2023 list at any point that made below 65% of the production budget worldwide on opening weekend ended up breaking even. The two that were closest was the low budget "The Bogeyman" and the stupid expensive budget "The Little Mermaid". [ETA: CORRECTION. Migration did at only 47.83%. See below.]



Just more evidence supporting my original argument that this was going to flop and a 3rd movie isn't likely to be made.

Sony Pictures killed themselves with that budget. Had they done the right thing and kept the budget to $75 Million like they spent on Afterlife, we'd be having a much different conversation about this right now.

In that case, it would be sitting at 81.8%, which would still be a steep hill to climb for the break-even point, but at least we'd be in a territory where there was at least some winners on the heap that started with similar openings.





ETA: OOPS! By only grabbing movies that had 50% opening weekends, I totally forgot about Universal's Migration. That opened with only 47.83% and went on to gross 400% of the budget (and it's still in some theaters today).

This really was an outlier for several reasons though. This was the little movie that could. Excellent word of mouth helped this one probably more than any other movie in 2023. It was also the benefactor of an extremely weak box office for the first 3 months of 2024 just as Wonka was.

And speaking of Wonka, at only a 65% opening weekend itself, it benefited massively from the same weak 2024 box office that Migration did. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire will not be so lucky.


Ghostbusters' only saving grace here is that it's getting a staggered international release and we may not have the full picture here yet. But that being said, with rare exception I didn't mark down in my notes any information about staggered releases for movies in 2023, so this might be quite common and it may already be reflected in quite a few of the movies on the above list.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.



'Ghostbusters' may do OK because it has a fanbase, the 'Fast and Furious' films chased away their fanbase because the films got REALLY stupid, remember street racers in space? I was surprised 'Mission Impossible' flopped, I thought that would be a sure fire hit.

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Monday, March 25, 2024 6:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
'Ghostbusters' may do OK because it has a fanbase, the 'Fast and Furious' films chased away their fanbase because the films got REALLY stupid, remember street racers in space? I was surprised 'Mission Impossible' flopped, I thought that would be a sure fire hit.



LOL... No. I don't remember that. The only F&F movie I ever saw was the original.

Be that as it may, Fast X still pulled in $714 Million worldwide. That's pretty much Dune: Part 2 numbers and would have it in 1st or 2nd place worldwide in 2024 depending on how well DP2 ultimately does. Their problem on that movie was the budget was an insane $340 Million.

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 did itself no favors with an equally insane $290 Million budget too. That movie still pulled in $567 Million worldwide, which would have made it #3 in the world in 2024 with DuneP2 and Fast X above it.


The new Ghostbusters will not make close to half of what Dead Reckoning made and won't even make more than the currently 5th place Chinese film so far this year. Since it had a budget of only $100 Million it will probably end up doing slightly better than the 195.28% MI made vs. its own production budget, but at this point I'm wondering if it will even make 200% of the budget or just slightly above.


Both the Fast and the Furious and Mission Impossible franchises had a much larger fanbase than Ghostbusters ever did. Even if they've lost quite a bit of them over the decades, it's still far more than Ghostbusters ever had, which is easily evidenced just by looking at the WW Gross of the last 2 entries of each series in comparison with each other.

The budget for this movie should have only been $60 Million. And they shouldn't have put in heavy hints toward a lesbian relationship between an underage girl and a ghost.

I don't see any possible future where Frozen Empire comes close to breaking even and another movie gets made.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, March 25, 2024 10:27 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Right now, Ghostbusters is sitting at exactly 61.40% on opening weekend worldwide. This will likely increase by $1 to $3 million because of studios lowballing projections, but I think it's pretty close since Sony Pictures just lowered their projection $200k to an even $45 Million this morning, which is never a good sign.

If it doesn't increase, this puts it over 4 points below The Little Mermaid and even a few tenths between A Haunting in Venice. Either way, there's no way they lowballed it so much that it would displace Wonka on the list.



Yeah. It didn't increase. I shouldn't have said that it was going to post $1-$3 Million more because I already noticed that it was dropped $200k on the projection before I said that, which historically has always meant that it was not going to get the usual post projection bump. It made only $4,673 more than that lowered projection in the US/Canada and lost more than a few bucks on the international projections.

So worldwide in total it only grossed 61.38% of the Production Budget on opening weekend.

$188.62 Million more is an impossible ask of this movie before it leaves theaters.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, March 25, 2024 11:41 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Free download of Ghostbusters.Frozen.Empire.2024.1080p.HD-TS-3MINEM[TGx]

https://1337x.to/torrent/6037531/Ghostbusters-Frozen-Empire-2024-1080p
-HD-TS-3MINEM-TGx
/

Total size 6.5 GB

For free, and no need to travel to a theater, it is a worthwhile experience.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, March 26, 2024 3:32 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Careful there, buddy.

Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.

Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.

But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.

Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Tuesday, March 26, 2024 8:40 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Careful there, buddy.

Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.

Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.

But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.

Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.

6ixStringJack, you know nothing but that is the way of Trumptards. Somebody with a camera copied Ghostbusters onto a memory card but they didn't steal the hundred-pound reel of film from the theater. Too bad for Hollywood, but they knew this day was coming since 2013 when Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predicted a film industry 'implosion', which implies rapid collapse. Steven and George got it slightly wrong. What is happening is more like a termite infestation slowly eating away at Hollywood's wood beams and posts of their Malibu homes on the beach.

Today's movies are in hotels two weeks after they hit theaters, Spielberg said. "There's going to be eventually day and date with movies" — when films are available on demand at home the same day they hit theaters — "and eventually there's going to be a price variance. You're going to have to pay $25 to see the next Iron Man. And you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln."
https://www.theverge.com/2013/6/13/4425486/steven-spielberg-george-luc
as-usc-film-industry-massive-implosion


Spielberg predicted prices between $7 and $25. If he had been less optimistic perhaps he would have predicted a range between $0 and $25.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Tuesday, March 26, 2024 10:37 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Careful there, buddy.

Word is that Congress is looking to pass a bill taxing theft.

Right now I'm seeing it's only regarding retail theft since that supposedly accounts for $15 Billion per year in business tax revenues, not including sales taxes.

But I don't see why they wouldn't easily apply that to online piracy when it's so very easy to attribute it to you. Especially when you're always advertising how you do it on an ancient website that is completely searchable on Google without needing any login credentials to view every post.

Hope you finally got around to getting a VPN. We all know you didn't have one when I harvested your IP address.

6ixStringJack, you know nothing but that is the way of Trumptards. Somebody with a camera copied Ghostbusters onto a memory card but they didn't steal the hundred-pound reel of film from the theater. Too bad for Hollywood, but they knew this day was coming since 2013 when Steven Spielberg and George Lucas predicted a film industry 'implosion', which implies rapid collapse. Steven and George got it slightly wrong. What is happening is more like a termite infestation slowly eating away at Hollywood's wood beams and posts of their Malibu homes on the beach.



I'm not going to get into an argument with you on the pros and cons of piracy here buddy.

But you suffer from Main Character Syndrome and you put Haken in potential jeopardy every single time you post pirated links on his wide-open to the rest of the world website.

And the Government and IRS isn't going to care one little bit about your views on piracy either. They already know everything everybody has ever downloaded illegally, whether they brag about it online or not. If they end up passing laws that tax people for the value of every intellectual property they've downloaded at their IP address, that's going to be quite the hefty bill. And trust me, they're not going to give you the sale prices when they do their figuring either. It's all MSRP, baby.

Having a VPN isn't going to help you because VPNs DO keep logs of all your traffic no matter how many youtubers will tell you that they don't when they're shilling the services, and the Privacy section of the contract that you signed and didn't read states clearly that they will share your information with the authorities if they're asked for it.

They won't even have to use the labor of one of their new 87,000 agents to do any of this either. It can all be done via computer programs in current year.


Good luck.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, March 28, 2024 6:29 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I'm not going to get into an argument with you on the pros and cons of piracy here buddy.

But you suffer from Main Character Syndrome and you put Haken in potential jeopardy every single time you post pirated links on his wide-open to the rest of the world website.

And the Government and IRS isn't going to care one little bit about your views on piracy either. They already know everything everybody has ever downloaded illegally, whether they brag about it online or not. If they end up passing laws that tax people for the value of every intellectual property they've downloaded at their IP address, that's going to be quite the hefty bill. And trust me, they're not going to give you the sale prices when they do their figuring either. It's all MSRP, baby.

Having a VPN isn't going to help you because VPNs DO keep logs of all your traffic no matter how many youtubers will tell you that they don't when they're shilling the services, and the Privacy section of the contract that you signed and didn't read states clearly that they will share your information with the authorities if they're asked for it.

They won't even have to use the labor of one of their new 87,000 agents to do any of this either. It can all be done via computer programs in current year.


Good luck.

From decades of experience I have learned that it is impossible to stop a stupid person from spewing nonsense that the idiot mistakes for sound advice. 6ix, you have heard the old phrase: “Opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and most of them stink.” 6ix, you have at least two assholes. Here is an example of a stupid, stinking opinion from 6ix:

http://fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=65949&mid=11902
34#1190234

Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Trump added $8.4 trillion to the national debt and yet I didn't hear complaints from the stereotypical Trumptard about it. https://thehill.com/business/4426965-trump-added-8-4-trillion-to-the-n
ational-debt-analysis
/



Yeah. You keep "forgetting" how much of that was after Democrats worked with China to unleash Covid on America because there was zero chance they were going to win the 2020 election before they derailed literally every life in the entire world for years.

And now, ever since then, we just piss away trillions every year without thinking about it and the country is falling to shit anyhow.

Whatever.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, March 28, 2024 6:30 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Download a free copy of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Size: 1,000.03 MB

https://yts.mx/movies/ghostbusters-frozen-empire-2024

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Thursday, March 28, 2024 7:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Idiot.

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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, March 29, 2024 8:36 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Download for free The Real Ghostbusters Complete Cartoon Series
https://1337x.to/torrent/4117117/The-Real-Ghostbusters-Complete-Cartoo
n-Series
/ That / at the end is important.
Without the "/" there will be an error message: "404 Not Found"

The Real Ghostbusters Episode list (140 episodes)
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0090506/episodes/?ref_=tt_eps

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, March 29, 2024 10:02 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Wow. I'm so cool! I know how to pirate movies and TV shows in 2024!



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, March 29, 2024 10:11 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Wow. I'm so cool! I know how to pirate movies and TV shows in 2024!

Why pay Hollywood to waste your time? Hollywood should pay you at least the minimum wage of $20 per hour to watch their products. Go to the movies and receive two new 20-dollar bills when you leave at the end. But if you want popcorn with their movie, you pay them.

Fast Food Minimum Wage Effective April 1, 2024
https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/minimum_wage.htm

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, March 29, 2024 10:50 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Wow. I'm so cool! I know how to pirate movies and TV shows in 2024!

Why pay Hollywood to waste your time? Hollywood should pay you at least the minimum wage of $20 per hour to watch their products. Go to the movies and receive two new 20-dollar bills when you leave at the end. But if you want popcorn with their movie, you pay them.




If they're that bad, why bother taking time out of your day to download them, let alone watch them?

Quote:

Fast Food Minimum Wage Effective April 1, 2024
https://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/minimum_wage.htm



Yeah? And what does a Big Mac cost in California right now?



It's almost like somebody told you that would happen before.

I'm sure they did.



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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, March 29, 2024 3:25 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

If they're that bad, why bother taking time out of your day to download them, let alone watch them?

I posted links but it does NOT follow that I downloaded or watched even one of the five Ghostbuster movies or any of the 140 episodes of the cartoon Ghostbusters. I should have known that an Indiana Trumptard would get it wrong since I am always seeing Texas Trumptards jumping to erroneous conclusions and getting injured/ punished/ fired/ divorced/ bankrupted/ slaughtered/ arrested/ hospitalized for their stupid mistakes. The big picture is that Hollywood is not a public service. Rather, it makes crappy entertainment for time-wasting morons who have too much money.

For an example of entertainment suitable for morons, there is Sully (2016). Hollywood can't even make a movie about a real story without lying and dumbing it down. I do not know why the writer and director chose to twist the role of the NTSB into such an inaccurate depiction. Their treatment of the NTSB went very far beyond cinematic license into simple mean-spirited dishonesty. The movie may actually be detrimental to aviation safety. Pilots involved in accidents will now expect harsh, unfair treatment by investigators.[75]

Tom Hanks, the star of the movie, told the Associated Press that Sullenberger himself was disturbed by the fictionalized version, going so far as to ask (having reviewed an early draft of the script) that the NTSB investigators' real names be removed from the characters. According to Hanks, Sullenberger felt that the real-life investigators "were not prosecutors" and it was not fair to associate them with changes in the story to depict "more of a prosecutorial process".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sully_(film)#Dispute_of_depiction_of_NTS
B


The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Friday, March 29, 2024 6:12 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Oh. So you're just a lowlife dirtbag for the fuck of it then.

Got it.



--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, March 29, 2024 10:37 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Bruce is predicting $22.8 Million this weekend in the US. Add that to the current worldwide gross of $73,857,112 and you get around $96.5 Million. It will probably double the $16 Million it got internationally opening weekend and add around $5-$7 Million more with the new countries showing it this weekend, so we'll call it another $23 Million on top of that. That'll be right in line with the $120 Million I predicted it would be after 2 weekends if I'm right.

That would mean it's still got another $130 Million to go to break even after two weekends.

Not very likely.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Saturday, March 30, 2024 12:20 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


$5.5 Million projected for Friday night on Ghostbusters.

Extremely doubtful it comes anywhere close to $22.8 Million for the weekend if that projection is accurate.

The international take is going to have to make up an additional $5 or so million now to get it up to $120 Million worldwide. I don't think we're going to see $30 Million additional from the international audiences once Monday rolls around.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, April 1, 2024 12:10 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
$5.5 Million projected for Friday night on Ghostbusters.

Extremely doubtful it comes anywhere close to $22.8 Million for the weekend if that projection is accurate.



Studio projections for weekend 2 are $15.65 Million.

Quote:

The international take is going to have to make up an additional $5 or so million now to get it up to $120 Million worldwide. I don't think we're going to see $30 Million additional from the international audiences once Monday rolls around.


It made $16.4 Million internationally on opening weekend. Looks like the projections after weekend 2 were $18.7 Million.

This does include $1.1 Million from Japan, which was one of the countries that opened this weekend. I'm not sure how up-to-date Bruce is here since most of the money for International is in the Rest of World basket right now.

Assuming it's correct, we're looking at $108,451,000 worldwide, or only 108.5% of the production budget after 10 days.


There is zero chance this movie breaks even at this point. I won't say there's zero chance a third movie gets made, but I can't imagine the chances are very good.


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Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Monday, April 1, 2024 3:42 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Godzilla x Kong really hurt Ghostbusters and pretty much every other movie in the box office this weekend.

Variety reports that movie cost $135 Million to make, and it looks like it grossed just shy of $195 Million worldwide on opening weekend. That movie shouldn't have any problems breaking even and making some money with 144% of the production budget grossed in 3 days.

How did Godzilla x Kong only cost $135 Million to make but Argyle cost $200 Million???

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Thursday, April 4, 2024 2:46 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Frozen Empire has trended below the bottom line for legs ever since the weekend ended. Even over the weekend and most of last week it trended either right on the bottom of that line or below it.

With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.

Now it's not a question of whether or not this thing makes or loses money. It's a question of how much money it's going to lose.

I'm guessing it loses at least $50 Million for Sony at this point. Maybe even up to $70 Million by the time its box office run ends.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Friday, April 5, 2024 3:43 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.



It's at $114,963,665 now. It's $10,036,335 shy of the halfway to breaking even point going into the 3rd weekend.

Bruce predicts $8.9 Million (only a -43% drop), which until the international numbers are added in still does not bring it halfway to breaking even.

It's got a couple minor European countries that are showing it new this weekend, which will help marginally, but I don't expect much more than $10 Million additional to the global gross internationally on Monday. Maybe $12 Million more tops, which would give it an international total of $47,100,000.

It would still need $115 Million to break even, with no possible way of ever achieving that.

My guess for Frozen Empire is somewhere in the area of $175 to $180 Million worldwide total.

--------------------------------------------------

Political correctness is just tyranny, with a smiley face.

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Sunday, April 7, 2024 11:23 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
With what seems to be very little help overseas, there's zero chance that this one breaks even for Sony. It is going to enter its third weekend with over a $10 Million deficit to 50% of the break even point.



It's at $114,963,665 now. It's $10,036,335 shy of the halfway to breaking even point going into the 3rd weekend.

Bruce predicts $8.9 Million (only a -43% drop), which until the international numbers are added in still does not bring it halfway to breaking even.

It's got a couple minor European countries that are showing it new this weekend, which will help marginally, but I don't expect much more than $10 Million additional to the global gross internationally on Monday. Maybe $12 Million more tops, which would give it an international total of $47,100,000.

It would still need $115 Million to break even, with no possible way of ever achieving that.

My guess for Frozen Empire is somewhere in the area of $175 to $180 Million worldwide total.



Looks like Bruce somehow got the international updates really early this weekend... I'm actually surprised at how sketchy the current international numbers are for this movie since it is a "blockbuster". I'm seeing behavior on this accounting that is usually only done with lower budget movies, so I'm not entirely sure that it's anywhere close to accurate at this point.

But that being said, we're now at $49,300,000 International. So if Bruce's reporting so far has been accurate, Ghostbuster's hold internationally and/or the money it made in the new countries this weekend were a tad larger than I expected them to be, adding $14.1 Million to last weeks total.

The US projection from Sony was $90k more than Bruce's prediction at $9 Million even.



So after 3 weekends we're at $138,164,000 worldwide, which is 55.2% of the money it would need to make to break even.

I'm still calling at least a $70 Million loss for Sony. Depending on how loose a hold it maintains, that may balloon to $80 Million or more.

I'm somewhat doubtful this can even make more than $170 Million worldwide at this point. I'll have a better feel on the final number after one more weekend.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Ghostbusters-Frozen-Empire-(2024)#ta
b=box-office


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Wednesday, April 10, 2024 2:07 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


HUGE dropoff for Frozen Empire this week, aided in part because of the loss of 510 theaters showing it. Though it only showed a -42% dropoff from the prior weekend, it is now down -77% on Monday from the previous Monday and -59% on Cheap Seat Tuesday from the previous Tuesday.

Monday (Day 18) was it's first sub-million day in the US, and it dropped well below even half a million at $460 Million. Projections for Tuesday show $750k.

Worldwide it now sits at $139,376,551, or roughly $110 Million shy of breaking even.


I suspect it will make in the area of $4.5 to $5 Million over the weekend, but that's only if the theater count doesn't change substantially. With Civil War and Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead needing screens this weekend, I'm sure that Ghostbusters will lose at least a hundred or two if not more. If it loses 500 or 600 or more, expect that number to be even less this weekend.


New international releases this weekend look to be Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa. I don't know how much people in Brazil like Ghostbusters, but that's the only country out of the four that I think could actually pull in any meaningful sort of profit here above what they were already going to get from countries where it was currently released.


It added $14.2 Million internationally last weekend, which would suggest that it doesn't have very good legs outside of the US, given that opening weekend was $35.1 Million and the $14.2 Million on Weekend 2 also included all the money made all week in any country that opened the weekend prior. If a movie is doing particularly well internationally, that 2nd weekend international number is usually pretty close to the opening weekend number because of that. AND it was opened in 3 or 4 additional countries last weekend and still turned in a very low 2nd weekend number.

So unless Brazil manages to pull in some huge numbers for Frozen Kingdom this weekend, my guess for the international take for Weekend 3 is somewhere in the area of $7 to $9.5 Million.



My Best Case Scenario for Weekend 3 (barring a HUGE Brazillian turnout) is an additional $15.5 Million once Bruce reconciles the international numbers by Monday. That would leave it at $155 Million Worldwide Gross.


After that, it's just watching how much attrition there is.

At 50% per week, it would look like this...

Weekend 4: $7.25 Million
Weekend 5: $3.625 Million
Weekend 6: $1.8125 Million
Weekend 7: $0.90625 Million
Weekend 8: $0.453125 Million

Our worldwide totals per week would look like this then:

Weekend 4: $162,250,000
Weekend 5: $165,875,000
Weekend 6: $167,687,500
Weekend 7: $168,593,750
Weekend 8: $169,046,875


Will it get more than 8 weeks? Maybe.

There's a lot of variables in there that the above numbers don't account for, but they should be a pretty good judge of where this is going. It won't come close to breaking even, and my earlier predictions that it loses at least $70 million look more than good. I don't think it will actually lose $80 Million or more for Sony as the numbers above suggest it will, but it is possible.


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Friday, April 19, 2024 4:06 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

I suspect it will make in the area of $4.5 to $5 Million over the weekend, but that's only if the theater count doesn't change substantially. With Civil War and Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead needing screens this weekend, I'm sure that Ghostbusters will lose at least a hundred or two if not more. If it loses 500 or 600 or more, expect that number to be even less this weekend.



It lost 485 theaters, but it still managed $5.75 Million for only a 36% drop. Much smaller than the previous two of 42% and 65%.


Quote:

My Best Case Scenario for Weekend 3 (barring a HUGE Brazillian turnout) is an additional $15.5 Million once Bruce reconciles the international numbers by Monday. That would leave it at $155 Million Worldwide Gross.


Jury's still out on what Brazil did. It's somewhere in the Rest of World figure right now. There's no way all that extra business came from Brazil alone though. Frozen Empire was at $160 Million after the weekend compared to my $155 Million prediction. About $1 Million of that was additional US Weekend Box Office. The other $4 Million was international.


That extra $5 Million could have some minor ripple effects and up the money in the coming weeks by a bit too. With our -50% model for 8 weeks, that would add an additional $5 Million after week 8.

So my figure from last weekend predicted $169,046,875 after Weekend 8. Now it looks as though that number could hit $179 Million.

That would still be in line with my $70 Million + loss for Sony, but not $80 Million or more at least.




Oddly, Bruce didn't list Frozen Empire in the Theater Count article yesterday. That's obviously a mistake. It hasn't even been in theaters 4 weekends yet and it was in 3,350 theaters this week.

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Sunday, April 21, 2024 6:05 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Ghostbusters is getting a huge bump by a weak box office toward the end of its run for sure.

Godzilla/Kong's impact was felt initially, but even that movie took 4th place with only $9 Million this weekend. The entire box office for the weekend was only $63 Million, which is hugely disappointing for Hollywood this far into the year.

So Frozen Empire actually had one of the lowest weekend-to-weekend drops I've seen so far at only -24% from last weekend, with another $4.4 Million in the bank, which puts last week about another $1 Million above what I figured the revised numbers should be after a better than expected showing last weekend.


It also got another $10.1 Million internationally, so I think the lack of Hollywood movies coming out is helping it overseas as well. That staggered international release date is also playing a part in keeping the week to week international drops much lower than they would have been had it been released everywhere simultaneously. International grosses by week for this movie are as follows:

Week 1: $16.4 Million
Week 2: $18.7 Million (14% Increase)
Week 3: $14.1 Million (25% Decrease)
Week 4: $13.9 Million (1% Decrease)
Week 5: $10.1 Million (27% Decrease)

Apparently, there's no way I could have accounted for that with the limited way the international numbers are presented to us. The staggered international release will ultimately end up being why my predictions for the final numbers of this movie were so off.

It's still going to be a massive failure, but the impact has been deadened quite a bit with the last two weekend's numbers.

We're already now sitting at 176,114,000 worldwide, which is only less than $4 Million below the high end of my prediction for this movie.

It will break $180 Million for sure, and it will lose less than $70 Million for Sony.

So with $10.1 Million Internationally and $5.9 Million in the US this week, that's an extra $16 Million over week 4. It looks like the new international releases are over, so there shouldn't be anymore surprises there. I'm going to play it safe and call it a -40% drop week to week from here on out instead of 50%.

Week 5 (Current): $176,114,000
Week 6: $185,714,000
Week 7: $191,474,000
Week 8: $194,930,000
Week 9: $197,003,600
Week 10: $198,227,760
Week 11: $199,974,256
Week 12: $200,422,154


Theoretically, I could see this movie now making double its production budget. I don't believe that will actually happen, but today is the first time I'm considering it a remote possibility.

12 weeks would be a LOT of screen time that it's not likely to get unless the next few months continue to be extremely soft at the box office as most of the year has been so far. This would also require only -40% drops worldwide every week from the current week total of $16 Million even. I don't think this is likely now either though since I don't think the International drop-off will be only -27% like it was in the US now that we won't be adding new countries to the schedule going forward.


I think $190 to $195 Million now is a pretty reasonable goal. It's at least $10 to $15 Million better than I thought it was going to do.

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Monday, April 29, 2024 8:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


My prediction for Week 6 totals was $185,714,000, assuming 40% weekly drops, worldwide.

The actual total after the weekend was $187,988,000.

There was only a 27% drop in the Domestic box office this weekend, so Ghostbusters continues to benefit from a very week 2024 box office.

It made about 7.5 Million internationally over the last week, roughly the same percentage drop it saw in the US this weekend.

At this point, if it gets a full 12 weeks in theaters it certainly hits $200 Million. It's only $12 Million away from that now. If weekly drops continue to amaze at less than 30%, it'll get there in only 2 more weeks.



A weak box office isn't going to save this movie from losing money, but it will lose quite a bit less than it would have otherwise. We're now looking at a loss of only somewhere between $40-$50 Million.

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Monday, April 29, 2024 10:24 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two


Each Ghostbuster sells fewer tickets than the previous one because ticket prices are inflating. There was a 27-year hiatus between Ghostbusters II and Ghostbusters (2016). Hollywood should have a refreshing 27-year gap until the next Ghostbusters in 2051. By then Bill Murray will be an actual ghost, which is fine for the plot in that future movie.

Worldwide Box Office
$187,988,000 Mar 22, 2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
$203,540,177 Nov 19, 2021 Ghostbusters: Afterlife
$229,008,658 Jul 15, 2016 Ghostbusters
$215,500,000 Jun 16, 1989 Ghostbusters II
$295,582,480 Jun 8, 1984 Ghostbusters

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Ghostbusters#tab=summary

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Monday, April 29, 2024 4:31 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by second:
Each Ghostbuster sells fewer tickets than the previous one because ticket prices are inflating. There was a 27-year hiatus between Ghostbusters II and Ghostbusters (2016). Hollywood should have a refreshing 27-year gap until the next Ghostbusters in 2051. By then Bill Murray will be an actual ghost, which is fine for the plot in that future movie.

Worldwide Box Office
$187,988,000 Mar 22, 2024 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
$203,540,177 Nov 19, 2021 Ghostbusters: Afterlife
$229,008,658 Jul 15, 2016 Ghostbusters
$215,500,000 Jun 16, 1989 Ghostbusters II
$295,582,480 Jun 8, 1984 Ghostbusters

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/franchise/Ghostbusters#tab=summary

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at
https://www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly




Yeah. I know. I went into great detail on these numbers before.

I pointed out how Sony was afraid to try a Ghostbusters III after II only made $215 Million on a $25 Million budget.

That's $542,802,790.32 on a $62,970,161.29 budget if you apply inflation, or roughly 9 times the production budget... and they had cold feet.

Yet Afterlife only made $203 Million on a budget of $75 Million and they still went ahead with Frozen Empire. Not only that, but they foolishly raised the production budget for it $25 Million above Afterlife.


This wasn't the thread where I had that deep dive on the numbers. I don't remember what thread I was posting all of that in before I made this one. But I knew this movie wasn't going to be a success and was a big mistake from the beginning.

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