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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

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Originally posted by whozit:
According to Variety 'The Fall Guy' is looking at a $30 million plus opening, that may be why the critics like it?

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Well... If that's the case, it's another Box Office flop in 2024.

The production budget was $130 Million. It's going to need $325 Million to break even.

Making less than 10% of that in the states on opening weekend is a death sentence for this movie. They'd better hope for about $70-$100 Million additional from overseas when Monday's numbers roll in if they want a chance at breaking even.



These guys have GOT to get these budgets under control.

First thing first, axe the huge figures for the "stars". They are getting paid far more money than they're worth.





Here's an article on pay...

https://medium.com/@myreview24/how-much-money-did-ryan-gosling-make-for-the-fall-guy-829c6390ebaa

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Breakdown of Earnings: A Starring Role’s Worth

Unpacking an actor’s earnings for a major motion picture involves several components. Here’s a peek behind the curtain:

Base Salary: A-listers like Gosling typically command a hefty upfront payment, regardless of the film’s box office performance. This base salary can range from a cool $5 million to a staggering $20 million, depending on the actor’s star power and the project’s budget. “The Fall Guy,” with its reported $125 million budget, suggests Gosling likely landed on the higher end of this spectrum.

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If Gosling made $20 Million for Fall Guy, the movie needs to make $50 Million just to cover his pay.

Say Emily Blunt made $5 Million. They've got to make another $12.5 Million gross just to cover her pay.

And that's only two of the actors.


If those numbers were correct and they only got $1 Million each instead, the amount of money the movie would need to gross to hit breakeven point would be $57.5 Million less than it is right now, or $267 Million vs. the current $325 Million.

That alone still might not be enough to save this movie from losing money with only $30 Million domestic gross this weekend, but even if you're going to lose money anyway, it's better to lose $57.5 Million less.


They then go on to say...

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Bonuses: Performance-based incentives can significantly inflate an actor’s overall earnings. These bonuses often kick in after the film reaches certain box office milestones. Since “The Fall Guy” is shaping up to be a summer blockbuster, Gosling could potentially see additional millions added to his paycheck if the film performs well.

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"Shaping up to be a summer blockbuster" in what world? $30 Million on opening weekend is considered a summer blockbuster in 2024? I know that Hollywood has taken one hard on the chin, but that is absolutely pathetic.

And with $130 Million budgets, it's not even true.


Just go back to late summer last year when we were laughing at Blue Beetle only pulling in $25 Million gross in the US on opening weekend with a $120 Million budget. That ended up being a HUGE flop for DC, only pulling in $128 Million worldwide when it needed $300 Million to break even.


If there were any bonus clauses in either Gosling's or Blunt's contracts, the good news for Universal is that, contrary to anything this article says, they won't be paying out any of those if Fall Guy opens to only $30 Million.





Honestly, I don't even understand the media coverage on this one. If it's a great movie, great. I hope it does very well.

But it appears there's almost unanimous agreement at these online sites that the movie is going to be a success, but when you look at the numbers it paints the exact opposite picture. I'm not seeing what they're seeing at all.

So I'm going to have to strongly disagree with all of them, just as I had to disagree with anyone who thought Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was going to be a success at the box office. The Fall Guy is set to be a huge box office flop. Nowhere near the level of Argylle making only $96 Million when it needed $500 Million to break even, but still really bad.

I'm not saying either of the movies aren't good. I'm just commenting on it from a financial perspective.


I don't know what Universal is doing. They had a banner year in 2023, but now they've easily taken the crown for the largest failure of the year and we haven't even seen how much money the $200 Million Twister sequel is going to lose them.

Meanwhile, last year's "winner" Disney has just been sitting 2024 out. They've got a few projects making it into theaters starting soon, but even when they likely fail, there's probably no chance Disney ends up losing more money than Universal does just because they're putting such little content out this year.

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The first weekend in May traditionally marks the beginning of Summer Season at the box office, and The Fall Guy seems like a perfect Summer movie: action, comedy, big-name stars, and a touch of nostalgia. This looked for a while like it could break out to become a major hit for Universal, and the studio has marketed it heavily. Audience buzz never really took off beyond a respectable level, and its Thursday previews suggest it might not make $30 million this weekend.

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Originally posted by whozit:
Right now at 11 a.m. Saturday it's tracking at around $28 million, not great. I was hoping for a non woke hit.

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Originally posted by whozit:
Right now at 11 a.m. Saturday it's tracking at around $28 million, not great. I was hoping for a non woke hit.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:

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Originally posted by whozit:
Right now at 11 a.m. Saturday it's tracking at around $28 million, not great. I was hoping for a non woke hit.

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It made a little over $7 Million on Friday night according to projections.

Not that it's going to help the movie much long-term, but I think $28 Million is a better guess than under $25 Million like Bruce's model predicted after the real numbers come in.

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Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
This is probably going to be a bigger flop than I thought it would be. It might even lose more money for Universal than Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire lost for Sony in the end. My bet is that it will, just because of the additional $25 Million on the budget over Frozen Empire.

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Originally posted by whozit:
This makes me wonder about the latest 'Apes' flick, like 'The Fall Guy' it's getting great reviews, are people tired of the franchise? Are you going to set up a 'Apes' failure thread

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