Trump's Trade Wars - another disaster

POSTED BY: captaincrunch
UPDATED: Tuesday, July 7, 2020 08:51
VIEWED: 14970
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SECOND

Monday, June 10, 2019 4:01 PM

The Trump Nosedive (or Face Plant if you prefer):
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o8Uq

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

1KIKI

Monday, June 10, 2019 4:26 PM

By your graph 2008 was an unbelievably fantastic year. So good, you wouldn't believe it. Just unbelievably good.

In fact, what your graph shows is that people were monetarily hurt and scared in 2008 and REALLY cut down on their spending - and because the US is mostly a non-manufacturing nation - that means they didn't buy Chinese stuff. Which helped the balance of trade.

Now that people are feeling better, they're spending more, which means they're buying more Chinese goods.

Your graph doesn't show what you want it to show, because it makes nonsense of the 2008 global economic disaster.

TRY AGAIN. And this time, try not to fart.

And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

SECOND

Monday, June 10, 2019 5:18 PM

Hey, 1kiki, Trump's criteria for "winning" is a smaller trade deficit, not a larger deficit, which means he is either losing his Trade Wars out of incompetence or he is not in control in the first place.

And what is your whininess about "the US is mostly a non-manufacturing nation"? Is that a complaint that the Chinese have stolen factory jobs? Because if it is, manufacturers have never made more product than now.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o8ZT

Manufacturers have never been about creating jobs. That is like thinking factories exist to create smoke and noise. Jobs are a byproduct, a secondary result, inevitably produced in doing something else. Like smoke, manufacturers want to decrease jobs, not increase them, otherwise manufacturers would be seeking the most labor intensive methods to run their factories, getting rid of machinery and doing more work by hand to create the most jobs possible. I guess Trump could send a bill to Congress requiring less productivity, but I don't think that kind of Factory Featherbedding Bill will pass. Maybe Trump should try that and see what happens in the Senate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Featherbedding

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

1KIKI

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 12:15 AM

Hey there old fart - can you tell me what the trade deficit would be if Trump DIDN'T do what he did? No, of course not, you can't. For all any of us know, the trade deficit would have been far, far worse without Trump. You've made yet another logical error. And can you find me that quote where Trump defines what it means to be 'wining' with tariff threats? Or are you just lying, again, as well?

As for your 'manufacturing 'sales' figures' - is that compared to the GDP? Per capita? Yanno, any reasonable comparative figure that would allow an actual comparison over time? Maybe you could find 'manufacturing 'sales' figures' compared to what Americans purchase, to show how much of manufactured goods consumed in the US are manufactured in the US. WAIT - that would be reflected in the trade imbalance!

So, what are you arguing, old fart? That manufacturing is in the dumps because Trump is losing the trade war and the line in the first graph is going down? Or that manufacturing has never been so unbelievably better than ever, because the line in your second graph is going up? Or are you arguing BOTH? It sure looks like you are to me.

You've got so many snakes in your head, you can even keep a simple line of argument straight. You'll argue ANYthing - no matter how false and self-contradictory - as long as you think it makes Trump look bad. Even if it makes you look like a crazy person living in some alternate reality without facts or logic.

As for your argument that manufacturers aren't about creating jobs - you idiot. What do you think I've been saying all along? It's one of the ways that this system is unsustainable.

To recap - Your FIRST graph does NOT show that trade policy is a driver of trade imbalances. Your SECOND graph NOT show that the US has maintained robust manufacturing economy. And your point about manufacturing NOT existing to create jobs is a strawman argument.

And you just farted ... and farted, and farted, and farted ...

I'll stop replying to your farts after this because you're a big fucking waste of time.

And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 5:25 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Letters sent from prison by the former Irish mob boss detailed his love for President Donald Trump and annoyance at the Mueller probe.

The former mob boss said he enjoys Trump's war against the media and that the President has his vote in the next election.

Bulger also talked about Mueller, who led the FBI at a time when rogue agents had protected mob bosses like Bulger.

"Trump is experiencing what Mueller and company can orchestrate," Bulger said last September. "[Mueller] should observe biblical saying - 'Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.'"

More at Fox News www.foxnews.com/us/whitey-bulger-praised-trump-prison-letters
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Shut up. All you do is insult people with every post.
6ix, interestingly, Whitey Bulger's fellow prisoners beat him to death. I wonder why? Could it have something to do with Trump? I often wonder why no one in Indiana has beaten you to death. Is it because you hide inside most of the time with no contact on the outside?
More likely it's because Indiana is a state that always votes a Republican for president.

You'll actually find that almost the entire country does outside of large cities.

The term you use here is cities. The more accurate term would be Media Markets. The MSM Market area or Bubble is where the brainwashing happens. Even when halfway sensible folk flee the insanity of the Urban centers for The Suburbs, they still get inundated with the Goebbels propaganda of the Mass Media. Your post almost sounds like you didn't know that.

Quote:
But I do take your meaning though. Wacko left wing extremists are extremely violent people, and Trump Derangement Syndrome hasn't been making them any nicer these last few years.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 6:13 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:

To recap -

To recap, you proved nothing about Trump, 1kiki, either good or bad. You might read "Donald Trump’s trade policy makes literally no sense"
www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2019/05/donald-trump-s-trade-
policy-makes-literally-no-sense

or "The internal contradictions of the Trump trade policy"
www.aei.org/publication/the-internal-contradictions-of-the-trump-trade
-policy/
What problem is America’s trade conflict with China trying to solve? Trump is a trade-deficit obsessive, but even substantial progress in eliminating the bilateral US-China trade gap is unlikely to alter the overall US trade deficit. (That imbalance is driven by US domestic macroeconomic policy, not dumb trade deals.)

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 6:27 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Letters sent from prison by the former Irish mob boss detailed his love for President Donald Trump and annoyance at the Mueller probe.

The former mob boss said he enjoys Trump's war against the media and that the President has his vote in the next election.

Bulger also talked about Mueller, who led the FBI at a time when rogue agents had protected mob bosses like Bulger.

"Trump is experiencing what Mueller and company can orchestrate," Bulger said last September. "[Mueller] should observe biblical saying - 'Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.'"

More at Fox News www.foxnews.com/us/whitey-bulger-praised-trump-prison-letters
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Shut up. All you do is insult people with every post.
6ix, interestingly, Whitey Bulger's fellow prisoners beat him to death. I wonder why? Could it have something to do with Trump? I often wonder why no one in Indiana has beaten you to death. Is it because you hide inside most of the time with no contact on the outside?
More likely it's because Indiana is a state that always votes a Republican for president.

You'll actually find that almost the entire country does outside of large cities.
The term you use here is cities. The more accurate term would be Media Markets. The MSM Market area or Bubble is where the brainwashing happens. Even when halfway sensible folk flee the insanity of the Urban centers for The Suburbs, they still get inundated with the Goebbels propaganda of the Mass Media. Your post almost sounds like you didn't know that.

I include the suburbs with the cities as a singular growing organism.

You might be able to temporarily flee the insanity and high crime rates of the urban centers by continuing to move further and further from the cities themselves, but the government control over the schools, law enforcement, property taxing authorities, etc. always follows close behind.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 4:05 PM

Why tariff threat is unsettling – even after US-Mexico deaI
www.csmonitor.com/Business/2019/0610/Why-tariff-threat-is-unsettling-e
ven-after-US-Mexico-deaI

Trump, having gone to great lengths to get a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, basically blew up his agreement by threatening to impose new tariffs unless Mexico did something about border issues that have nothing to do with trade. Barely a week later, Trump called the tariff off in return for a statement by Mexico that it would do things it had already agreed to months earlier.

This obviously weakens Trump’s ability to negotiate future agreements, on trade or anything else. After all, what’s the point of making deals with him when he reneges on his promises whenever he feels like it?

Now, not having a destructive trade war with Mexico is a good thing. But what the world learned is that Trump’s threats are as empty as his promises. Also, he reduced the chances that Congress will ever approve the U.S.M.C.A., Trump’s replacement for Nafta.

Democrats in the House were already reluctant to pass U.S.M.C.A., giving Trump something to boast about, unless they got some serious concessions on issues that matter to them. Trump’s counter was a threat to withdraw from Nafta with no replacement. But this would have catastrophic economic effects, leading into an election year. After last week’s climbdown on Mexican tariffs, who believes that he would carry through on that threat?

As of right now, markets appear to be betting that he tweets loudly but carries a small stick. Investors are treating Trump as crazy but harmless cartoon president:

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 7:01 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:

As for your argument that manufacturers aren't about creating jobs - you idiot. What do you think I've been saying all along? It's one of the ways that this system is unsustainable.

Manufacturing has never been about creating jobs. That includes all countries and all history, yet manufacturing continues all over the world. Jobs are exactly the same as scrap and waste heat. Making scrap or waste heat or jobs is not what manufacturing is about. Factories have always tried to minimize all three with varying success. I will make a prediction that manufacturing is "sustainable" for at least another thousand years, unless 1kiki has a secret definition of "sustainable" that doesn't match any in a dictionary. Speaking of secrets:

Mexico denies Trump’s claim of secret concessions in deal
www.apnews.com/7bedd8e672dd4f6ca3ffe2b3fd78fe0f

Three days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a [tariff] deal with Mexico to stem the flow of migrants at the southern border, the two countries appear unable to agree on exactly what’s in it.

Stung by criticism that the agreement mostly ramps up border protection efforts already underway, Trump on Monday hinted at other, secret agreements he says will soon be revealed.

“We have fully signed and documented another very important part of the Immigration and Security deal with Mexico, one that the U.S. has been asking about getting for many years,” Trump wrote Monday, saying it would “be revealed in the not too distant future.”

Not so, said Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, holding up a paper and pointing to the previously announced details. He told reporters the two countries agreed on two actions made public Friday and said if those measures didn’t work to slow migration, they would discuss further options.

“There is no other thing beyond what I have just explained,” he said.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

REAVERFAN

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 11:50 PM

Trump And Other Gaslighters/Narcissists Create Crises And Then Act Like They Solved Them
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniesarkis/2019/06/09/trump-and-othe
r-gaslightersnarcissists-create-crises-and-then-act-like-they-solved-them/?utm_source=FACEBOOK&utm_medium=social&utm_term=Valerie%2F&fbclid=IwAR1tjEpPtsBugbQYtxv316sif-fBrkVOBstjDTeQekoaIgtYmvHd8Kzn2PY#2818edb960c2

Gaslighters/narcissists create an enemy and crisis, then "solve" that same crisis. They then demand accolades after that crisis (that they created) has been resolved. Why do they do this? It creates support within their base. And with 2020 elections right around the corner, Trump knows the importance of manufacturing an enemy and then portraying himself as the only person who could "conquer" this manufactured enemy.

The most recent case in point is Trump's tariffs on Mexico. Trump is touting himself as the key factor in getting a border agreement with Mexico. However, the New York Times reported that the U.S. and Mexico had reached an agreement on border policies months before Trump's tariff threat.

1KIKI

Wednesday, June 12, 2019 2:49 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 1kiki:

To recap - Your FIRST graph does NOT show that trade policy is a driver of trade imbalances. Your SECOND graph NOT show that the US has maintained robust manufacturing economy. And your point about manufacturing NOT existing to create jobs is a strawman argument.

FIFY

And if democrats don't do anything different, how are they any better?
tic tac

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Wednesday, June 12, 2019 3:38 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Quote:
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Why does this thread seem to get bumped when the Markets are climbing? This time to the highest point in almost 4 months.
And yet again today Dow climbed above 26,000 - and here we have another bump of the thread.
And the last few days the markets are climbing like crazy. So another post here. Nitwits.

Since 1 June, the Dow has gained 1,250 points. About 5%. Is this the reason this nonsense thread has been spurred?

1KIKI

Thursday, July 11, 2019 8:17 AM

This seems to belong here:

The US ramped up its LNG (liquefied natural gas) production, adding new facilitates, in anticipation of China's increasing demand.

But China curtailed US LNG imports after the trade war started, choosing to meet its +33% demand from Jan 2017 by importing from other countries.

FWIW, Europe is still dependent on Russian pipeline gas, since it's far cheaper than US LNG.

SECOND

Monday, July 15, 2019 5:14 AM

U.S. manufacturers are shifting production to countries outside of China as trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies stretch into a second year. . . . The biggest beneficiaries of that decline have been other countries in Asia where production costs are low, such as Vietnam, India, Taiwan and Malaysia.

“We’re moving production to other parts of the world,” Marvin Edwards, chief executive of CommScope Holding Co., said in June. The Hickory, N.C., company is making antennas for sale in the U.S. at its plant in India instead of China.

Wait. What about America?

There is little evidence, though, of U.S. manufacturers bringing production from China back to the U.S., a move the Trump administration hoped the tariffs would encourage. While imports from other Asian countries have climbed, U.S. manufacturing output has declined 1.5% through May from a recent peak reached in December, according to the Federal Reserve. The Institute for Supply Management said earlier this month that its manufacturing index slipped again in June to the lowest level since 2016.

More at www.wsj.com/articles/manufacturers-move-supply-chains-out-of-china-115
63096601

Tariffs on China might eventually force them to change some of their bad trade behavior, if Trump is smart enough to cut a serious deal, but that’s all. It will do nothing to bring low-value manufacturing back to the United States.

Anyone who wants to pretend this is great news for American workers is just joining in the Trump con.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Friday, August 2, 2019 7:12 AM

With Trump’s announcement on Thursday of tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese imports, nearly all goods from China will be subject to import taxes, and Trump says they generate billions of dollars in revenues for the U.S. Treasury from China. But that is not how tariffs work. China’s government and companies in China do not pay U.S. tariffs directly. Tariffs are a tax on imported products and are paid by U.S.-registered firms to U.S. customs when goods enter the United States. U.S. business executives and economists say U.S. consumers foot much of the tariff bill.

That was why, immediately after Trump announced his decision, U.S. retailers blasted the move as “another tax increase on American businesses and consumers,” which they warned would threaten U.S. jobs and raise costs for American families.

Higher duties on imports of Chinese and other products, for example, increased Caterpillar Inc’s production costs by $70 million in the last quarter. It expects to pay between $250 million and $350 million in tariffs this year. In response to higher manufacturing costs, the heavy equipment maker has increased prices.

Walmart Inc, the world’s largest retailer, and department store chain Macy’s Inc have warned of an increase in prices for shoppers due to higher tariffs on goods from China.

More at www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs-explainer/explainer
-trumps-china-tariffs-paid-by-u-s-importers-not-by-china-idUSKCN1UR5YZ

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, August 2, 2019 8:52 AM

You like paying taxes. What do you care?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Friday, August 2, 2019 9:21 AM

Trump's $300bn China tariff threat sends markets into tailspin

Donald Trump’s surprise decision to escalate the trade war with tariffs on another $300bn of Chinese goods has sent global financial markets into a tailspin.

After sharp falls on Wall Street in the wake of the US president’s announcement on Twitter on Thursday, Asian share prices plummeted on Friday morning as growing hopes that the world’s two economic superpowers would be able to reach a deal were dashed.

In Tokyo the Nikkei was down 2.3% on Friday, with similar falls in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The Kospi was down 0.9% in Seoul while in Sydney the benchmark ASX200, which passed its pre-global financial crisis all-time high on Tuesday, fell 0.5%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/02/trumps-300bn-china-ta
riff-threat-sends-markets-into-tailspin

T

Thought I'd post this again second since jack deflected. I thought he may want to give it a whack.

6IXSTRINGJACK
Friday, August 2, 2019 11:28 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Trump's $300bn China tariff threat sends markets into tailspin

Donald Trump’s surprise decision to escalate the trade war with tariffs on another $300bn of Chinese goods has sent global financial markets into a tailspin.

After sharp falls on Wall Street in the wake of the US president’s announcement on Twitter on Thursday, Asian share prices plummeted on Friday morning as growing hopes that the world’s two economic superpowers would be able to reach a deal were dashed.

In Tokyo the Nikkei was down 2.3% on Friday, with similar falls in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The Kospi was down 0.9% in Seoul while in Sydney the benchmark ASX200, which passed its pre-global financial crisis all-time high on Tuesday, fell 0.5%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/02/trumps-300bn-china-ta
riff-threat-sends-markets-into-tailspin

T

Thought I'd post this again second since jack deflected. I thought he may want to give it a whack.

What do I care if the markets fall? I've been saying since long before you were a member here that the DOW doesn't mean shit to anybody that isn't rich.

Financially, we're all fucked buddy. Better strap in. I'll be alright. I already know how to deal with it. I'd worry more about yourself and your own future if I were you.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Tuesday, August 6, 2019 6:01 PM

Here's how the stock market lost more than $1.4 trillion (and counting) in less than a week

It took just four brutal trading days for a $1.4 trillion wipeout in the S&P 500 stock value. From the Federal Reserve's disappointing comments on the future of interest rates to President Donald Trump's surprise tariffs to China's weaponizing of the yuan, the record-long bull market took a big hit in a relatively short time.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/heres-how-the-stock-market-los
t-more-than-dollar14-trillion-and-counting-in-less-than-a-week/ar-AAFnQhs?ocid=spartanntp

T

SECOND

Tuesday, August 6, 2019 6:25 PM

Trump’s China Shock

What the heck is going on?

www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/opinion/trumps-china-shock.html

I should try to explain (a) what I think is happening (b) why the markets are going so nuts. By the way, given Mnuchin’s declaration that China is a currency manipulator, today’s market action should be … interesting.

So here’s the thing: neither Trump’s tariff announcement last week nor, especially, the depreciation of China’s currency today should objectively be that big a deal. Trump slapped 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports, which is a tax hike of 0.1 percent of US GDP and 0.15 percent of Chinese GDP.

In response, China let its currency drop by about 2 percent. For comparison, the British pound has dropped around 9 percent since May, when it became clear that a no-deal Brexit was likely.

So why are these smallish numbers such a big deal? Mostly because we’ve learned things about the protagonists in this trade conflict, things that make a bigger, longer trade war seem a lot more likely than it did even a few days ago.

First, Trump really is a Tariff Man. Some naïve souls may still have been hoping that he would learn something from the failure of his trade policy so far. More sensible people hoped that he might do what he did with NAFTA: reach a new deal basically the same as the old deal, proclaim that it was totally different, and claim a great victory.

But no: it’s pretty clear now that he refuses to give up on his belief that trade wars are good, and easy to win; his plan is to continue the beatings until morale improves. What may have looked like temporary tariffs designed to win concessions now look like permanent features of the world economy, with the level of tariffs and the range of countries facing them likely to expand over time.

Second, China is clearly signaling that it’s not Canada or Mexico: it’s too big and too proud to submit to what it considers bullying.

Not so incidental — while there are many valid reasons to criticize Chinese policy, currency manipulation isn’t one of them. China was a major currency manipulator 7 or 8 years ago, but these days if anything it’s supporting its currency above the level it would be at if it were freely floating.

And think for a minute about what would happen to a country with an unmanipulated currency, if one of its major export markets suddenly slapped major tariffs on many of its goods. You’d surely expect to see that country’s currency depreciate, just as Britain’s has with the prospect of lost market access due to Brexit.

In other words, the Trump administration in its wisdom has managed to accuse the Chinese of the one economic crime of which they happen to be innocent. Oh, and what are we going to do to punish them for this crime? Put tariffs on their exports? Um, we’ve already done that.

So how does this all end? I have no idea. More important, neither does anyone else. It looks to me as if both Trump and Xi have now staked their reputations on hanging tough. And the thing is, it’s hard to see what would make either side give in (or even to know what giving in might mean.)

At this rate, we may have to wait for a new president to clean up this mess, if she can.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 12:16 AM

One reason that it fell, that nobody seems to be talking about anywhere, is that the numbers were hyper-inflated speculation bullshit that isn't backed by anything such as good jobs and a higher quality of life for anybody.

Of course it was going to fall.

Maybe it goes back up again for a while? Then all of you who started posting like mad about the economy in the last few days will stop again and JSF will update the Dow Jump thread every single day with new numbers that top yesterday's numbers.

But eventually, we're going to see a MASSIVE crash again. Only this time it will be the likes that we've never seen because of how far it has to fall.

14,164.53 down to 6,547.05 for a 54%+ drop in 2008-2009?

That's 7,657. Points.

54% of 27,359? That's almost 15,000 points at only 12,585 points.

Twice as fucking big.

Look around you everybody. The DOW was doing twice as good as its 2008 peak up until last week. Are you doing twice as good as 2008? Is anybody you know doing twice as good as 2008?

Is anybody even close?

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Thursday, August 8, 2019 4:01 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
One reason that it fell, that nobody seems to be talking about anywhere, is that the numbers were hyper-inflated speculation bullshit that isn't backed by anything such as good jobs and a higher quality of life for anybody.

Of course it was going to fall.

Warren Buffett is accumulating cash to invest when the market does crash. He will buy after the crash at a low price and resell in ten years at a high price.

www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/07/warren-buffetts-silent-warning-to-in
vestors.aspx

Buffett explains how crashes work:
www.fool.com/slideshow/warren-buffetts-advice-stock-market-crash/

Buffett has said, "Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing."

While there's no guarantee investors will be able to resist irrational and emotional urges that could lead to bad decisions during a downturn, there's one way that makes poor judgment a near certainty when things go awry: trade on margin. Debt distorts all decision making in investing -- especially during a stock market crash.

Buffett explained this in his most recent shareholder letter:

"Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren't immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary. And an unsettled mind will not make good decisions"

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Thursday, August 8, 2019 4:03 PM

Why Trade War Scares Away Business Investment
www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/opinion/tariff-tantrums-and-recession-risks
.html

Tariff uncertainty caused by Trump can have serious adverse effects, especially on investment.

Let me offer a hypothetical example. Suppose there are two companies, Cronycorp and Globalshmobal, that would be affected in opposite ways if Trump imposes a new set of tariffs. Cronycorp would like to sell stuff we’re currently importing, and would build a new factory to make that stuff if assured that it would be protected by high tariffs. Globalshmobal has already been considering whether to build a new factory, but it relies heavily on imported inputs, and wouldn’t build that factory if those imports will face high tariffs.

Suppose Trump went ahead and did the deed, imposing high tariffs and making them permanent. In that case Cronycorp would go ahead, while Globalshmobal would call off its investment. The overall effect on spending would be more or less a wash.

On the other hand, suppose that Trump were to announce that we’ve reached a trade deal: all tariffs on China are called off, permanently, in return for Beijing’s purchase of 100 million memberships at Mar-a-Lago. In that case Cronycorp will cancel its investment plans, but Globalshmobal will go ahead. Again, the overall effect on spending is a wash.

But now introduce a third possibility, in which nobody knows what Trump will do — probably not even Trump himself, since it will depend on what he sees on Fox News on any given night. In that case both Cronycorp and Globalshmobal will put their investments on hold: Cronycorp because it’s not sure that Trump will make good on his tariff threats, Globalshmobal because it’s not sure that he won’t.

Technically speaking, both companies will see an option value to delaying their investments until the situation is clearer. That option value is basically a cost to investment, and the more unpredictable Trump’s policy, the higher that cost. And that’s why trade tantrums are exerting a depressing effect on demand.

Furthermore, it’s hard to see what can reduce this uncertainty. U.S. trade law gives the president huge discretionary authority to impose tariffs; the law was never designed to deal with a chief executive who has poor impulse control. A couple of years ago many analysts expected Trump to be restrained by his advisers, but he’s driven many of the cooler heads out, many of those who remain are idiots, and in any case he’s reportedly paying ever less attention to other people’s advice.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Thursday, August 8, 2019 5:35 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
One reason that it fell, that nobody seems to be talking about anywhere, is that the numbers were hyper-inflated speculation bullshit that isn't backed by anything such as good jobs and a higher quality of life for anybody.

Not related to trade, but very related to "good jobs": Nobody who knows how to run a business runs their business less and less efficiently in order to create jobs. An example of that: Permian fracking activity sets new records with fewer people
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Permian-fracking-activity-se
ts-new-records-with-14288756.php

Oilfield services firms fracked 18 Permian wells a day in June for a monthly total of about 550 wells, easily surpassing the August 2018 record of about 520 wells, according to the research firm Rystad Energy. They did it with 20 percent fewer fracking crews, according to a separate report from another research firm, Kayrros. A fracking crew typically comprises about 30 workers.

Want to know what happened to the 20% fewer crews? They were fired. They will stay fired. They need to find another way to make a living.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, August 9, 2019 1:05 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
One reason that it fell, that nobody seems to be talking about anywhere, is that the numbers were hyper-inflated speculation bullshit that isn't backed by anything such as good jobs and a higher quality of life for anybody.
Not related to trade, but very related to "good jobs": Nobody who knows how to run a business runs their business less and less efficiently in order to create jobs. An example of that: Permian fracking activity sets new records with fewer people
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Permian-fracking-activity-se
ts-new-records-with-14288756.php

Oilfield services firms fracked 18 Permian wells a day in June for a monthly total of about 550 wells, easily surpassing the August 2018 record of about 520 wells, according to the research firm Rystad Energy. They did it with 20 percent fewer fracking crews, according to a separate report from another research firm, Kayrros. A fracking crew typically comprises about 30 workers.

Want to know what happened to the 20% fewer crews? They were fired. They will stay fired. They need to find another way to make a living.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

Are you trying to explain this to the guy who talks non-stop about automation and Six Sigma? I know how it works.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SIGNYM

Sunday, August 11, 2019 5:07 AM

-----------
Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

"The messy American environment, where most people don't agree, is perfect for people like me. I CAN DO AS I PLEASE." - SECOND

America is an oligarchy http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=57876 .

THG

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 4:06 AM

US removes some items from China tariff list, delaying tariffs for others, including cell phones

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-removes-some-items-from-chi
na-tariff-list-delaying-tariffs-for-others-including-cell-phones/ar-AAFKuvW?ocid=spartandhp

And again Trump blinks. The great negotiator my ass. A dumb ass, absolutely.

T

THG

Wednesday, August 14, 2019 4:27 PM

Trump Tariffs to Hurt U.S. Farmers More Than China Counterparts

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump-tariffs-to-hurt-us-farme
rs-more-than-china-counterparts/ar-AAFMLZB?ocid=spartandhp

T

THG

Monday, August 19, 2019 4:14 AM

Americans overwhelmingly support free trade as concern grows about Trump's economy: NBC/WSJ poll

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americans-overwhelmingly-suppo
rt-free-trade-as-concern-grows-about-trumps-economy-nbc-wsj-poll/ar-AAFYsl3?ocid=spartandhp

T

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 4:36 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Americans overwhelmingly support free trade as concern grows about Trump's economy: NBC/WSJ poll

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americans-overwhelmingly-suppo
rt-free-trade-as-concern-grows-about-trumps-economy-nbc-wsj-poll/ar-AAFYsl3?ocid=spartandhp

T

lol 9 out of 10 Americans couldn't even give you a remedial explanation of what free trade is.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 4:39 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Americans overwhelmingly support free trade as concern grows about Trump's economy: NBC/WSJ poll

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/americans-overwhelmingly-suppo
rt-free-trade-as-concern-grows-about-trumps-economy-nbc-wsj-poll/ar-AAFYsl3?ocid=spartandhp

T

Also, from the article itself:

Quote:
Public sentiment about Trump's re-election campaign remains similarly stable. Just 40% of Americans say they plan to vote for him in 2020, up two points from last December. The proportion planning to vote against him stayed at 52%.

This is why the Democrats lose.

It's all about Trump.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

1KIKI

Monday, August 19, 2019 5:48 AM

It IS all about Trump, and Trump made sure of it by getting headlines on every issue, forcing the Dems to be in a position to respond and catch up. And the Dems played along by being stuck on / Mueller / Russia / impeachment / (pivoting to / obstruction / Epstein / corruption / as things played out) all this time. When - as I've pointed out more than once - they SHOULD have been developing and staking claims on issues vital to Americans / voters of their own. Sigh.

Anyway, in the news, a big deal about a possible recession on its way. That would be a problem for Trump if it happens. (OTOH he's already staked a claim to that one too, saying it would be because of the Fed raising the rates too much, and not lowering them when he said they should. And whether or not it would be cause and effect, he would be right about the timing.

)

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 6:03 AM

The candidates themselves know this. Liberal elites/Hollywood elites know this.

They never talk about the election in terms of voting for somebody who's going to do things. The "Hope and Change" era of Democrats is dead. They've even abandoned the "we're not Trump" message and replaced it with "We must beat Trump by any means necessary".

They are the ones full of hate. They are the ones full of fear. They are the ones who see race and sex in every single issue under the sun and throw it in everybody's face whenever they get the chance, which is always because of smart phones.

They point out some pilled up psychopath from time to time that is usually, allegedly, somebody on the right, all the while ignoring how most everybody else on the right and in the middle is sane and tries to maintain a positive attitude about things, while also ignoring just how miserable and depressed and insane and just all around a chore to even be around they have become in the last 2 1/2 years.

Just look at the thread title history in here in the last 2 years. I guaranty you that 90% of it is negative shit, and 90% of that negative shit is from the raging lefties here.

And then, what's inside the threads himself. Marcos can't say a single sentence that isn't dripping with hatred. Second constantly talking about assassination and murdering people. Wishy deciding who she doesn't like and who deserves to die, while gleefully using machine gun emoticons and cackling like the hag troll she is... just recently talking about how Mexicans are annoying and throwing the n word around like she's entitled to because she's a raging virtue signaller with a vagina.

Got news for you honeybunch. You aren't entitled.

Exhibit A: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/sarah-silverman-fired-movie-blackface_n
_5d514735e4b0820e0af81c30

Exhibit B: https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/aug/15/white-professor-investig
ated-quoting-james-baldwin-use-of-n-word-laurie-sheck

And please. Don't embarrass yourself again by bringing up anything I said while I was drunk 24/7. I've already apologized for my behavior years ago and I do not stand by anything that I said back then. I also never deleted any of it either because it's a reminder of how bad I could actually get if I ever stray from the path again.

The difference is that YOU are shameless and, so you claim, you believe everything you post here and, so you claim, you do so with a sober mind.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Monday, August 19, 2019 7:35 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Second constantly talking about assassination and murdering people.

Let’s be honest. I won't be killing anybody. But Trump can't say that. He has been directing drone strikes on civilians starting his first week.
TRUMP'S SYRIA STRIKES WERE 'AFTER-DINNER ENTERTAINMENT' AT MAR-A-LAGO
www.newsweek.com/trumps-cruise-missile-strikes-syria-were-mar-lago-aft
er-dinner-entertainment-593110
President Trump Cancels Rule Requiring U.S. to Report Civilians Killed in Drone Strikes
https://time.com/5546366/trump-cancels-drone-strike-rule/
During Mr Obama's eight years in office, 1,878 drone strikes were carried out, according to researchers. Since Mr Trump was elected in 2016, there have been 2,243 drone strikes -- 7 March 2019
www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207

Most of the time presidents don’t deserve a whole lot of credit or blame for the economy. There are modest exceptions here and there, but the economy is mostly outside their control.

And then you have Donald Trump. He supported a bad tax bill. He ginned up a trade war. He threw oil markets into turmoil by abrogating the Iran treaty. And now the yield curve has inverted, and financial markets are in a tizzy.

I can’t predict the future any better than anyone else, but if Trump ends up losing in 2020 because the economy went sour, he’ll deserve it. It’s too bad all the rest of us have to pay the price too.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 9:21 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Second constantly talking about assassination and murdering people.
Let’s be honest. I won't be killing anybody.

We have no reason to believe this anymore than we have any reason to believe that you run a successful business or that you're rich. You say both of them all the time.

So okay, whatever. Don't care if you're rich or not. I hope you don't murder or assassinate anyone.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Monday, August 19, 2019 9:54 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:

We have no reason to believe this anymore than we have any reason to believe that you run a successful business or that you're rich. You say both of them all the time.

So okay, whatever. Don't care if you're rich or not. I hope you don't murder or assassinate anyone.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

6ix, get back on the subject of Trump's Trade War. He is losing it, but I'm assuming you believe the Federal Reserve, even if you can't stop calling me a liar:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mX9o

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 10:04 AM

First off, I will talk about whatever I want to, in any thread that I want to. A thread's title has never stopped any of you from going off topic before. For instance, I don't remember any thread titles in the history of the RWED such as "My name is Second and I'm a millionaire rancher", or "My name is Second and here's why the President should die", or "My name is Second and I think everybody making minimum wage should kill their boss and take everything they own", but you still manage to fit at least one of those into a thread on a daily basis.

Second, Second, I've never said I was a fan of Trump's economic policies and I think that is his one weakness. Then again, I've never seen a politician of any level let alone a President do it right since I've been old enough to pay attention.

What I think you fail to understand however, is that whether or not the economy is doing well in 2020, Trump is going to win on that point by sheer virtue of the Democrat's current platform of reparations, freebies for everybody and open borders leading to further freebies for people who weren't even living here before the election.

One might even argue that the worse the economy gets, the better Trump's chances are for re-election if we're only talking about the economy being a factor, which it very well might be if your fantasy of the US economy taking a nosedive comes to fruition in the next year.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Monday, August 19, 2019 7:45 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
First off, I will talk about whatever I want to, in any thread that I want to. A thread's title has never stopped any of you from going off topic before. For instance, I don't remember any thread titles in the history of the RWED such as "My name is Second and I'm a millionaire rancher", or "My name is Second and here's why the President should die", or "My name is Second and I think everybody making minimum wage should kill their boss and take everything they own", but you still manage to fit at least one of those into a thread on a daily basis.

Second, Second, I've never said I was a fan of Trump's economic policies and I think that is his one weakness. Then again, I've never seen a politician of any level let alone a President do it right since I've been old enough to pay attention.

What I think you fail to understand however, is that whether or not the economy is doing well in 2020, Trump is going to win on that point by sheer virtue of the Democrat's current platform of reparations, freebies for everybody and open borders leading to further freebies for people who weren't even living here before the election.

One might even argue that the worse the economy gets, the better Trump's chances are for re-election if we're only talking about the economy being a factor, which it very well might be if your fantasy of the US economy taking a nosedive comes to fruition in the next year.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

Nate Silver of https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1158488079453347846 thinks that Trump’s chances are about 50-50. The more I think about it, however, the slightly more bearish I get on Trump’s chances. So right now I’d say there’s more like a 45 percent chance of Trump winning reelection.

Why? Three reasons:

1) The economy will not get any better for Trump and probably will get worse.

2) Trump cannot count on Democratic apathy in 2020.

3) Democrats in 2020 are not Republicans in 2016. Right-wing commentators are desperately trying to pump up Democratic presidential candidates who might roil the party, such as Marianne Williamson or Tulsi Gabbard. It’s not easy to dismiss the possibility, as four years ago a fringe candidate managed to win the GOP nomination. But as for actual polling, Williamson (and Gabbard) remain close to zero.

So, to sum up: Trump’s economy looks weaker than it did three months ago, and the trend line is worrisome for his reelection campaign. Democrats seem both energized and pragmatic.

www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/07/why-i-think-chances-donald-t
rumps-re-election-are-getting-worse/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Monday, August 19, 2019 8:18 PM

Agitated by news reports and warnings by economists of recession signals, the president has privately claimed that "forces that do not want him to win" have been exaggerating the damage his trade war has caused the global economy.

Trump is convinced there is a conspiracy to distort economic data and exaggerate the prospect of a recession.
www.businessinsider.com/trump-claims-conspiracy-behind-recession-warni
ngs-report-2019-8

Trump is becoming increasingly nervous that the end of an 11-year expansion could scupper his hopes of a second term and is going on the attack as ill omens and recent stock market slumps haunt the global economy. The economy may be more important for Trump than it is for other presidents given that its current health is one of the few policy areas where polls show he has majority support. Therefore it is ironic that some of Trump's own policies — for instance his tariff war with China — are raising investor fears of a recession that could doom him politically.
www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-economy-2020-election-chi
na-trade-war/index.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Monday, August 19, 2019 8:27 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
First off, I will talk about whatever I want to, in any thread that I want to. A thread's title has never stopped any of you from going off topic before. For instance, I don't remember any thread titles in the history of the RWED such as "My name is Second and I'm a millionaire rancher", or "My name is Second and here's why the President should die", or "My name is Second and I think everybody making minimum wage should kill their boss and take everything they own", but you still manage to fit at least one of those into a thread on a daily basis.

Second, Second, I've never said I was a fan of Trump's economic policies and I think that is his one weakness. Then again, I've never seen a politician of any level let alone a President do it right since I've been old enough to pay attention.

What I think you fail to understand however, is that whether or not the economy is doing well in 2020, Trump is going to win on that point by sheer virtue of the Democrat's current platform of reparations, freebies for everybody and open borders leading to further freebies for people who weren't even living here before the election.

One might even argue that the worse the economy gets, the better Trump's chances are for re-election if we're only talking about the economy being a factor, which it very well might be if your fantasy of the US economy taking a nosedive comes to fruition in the next year.

Do Right, Be Right. :)
Nate Silver of https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1158488079453347846 thinks that Trump’s chances are about 50-50. The more I think about it, however, the slightly more bearish I get on Trump’s chances. So right now I’d say there’s more like a 45 percent chance of Trump winning reelection.

Why? Three reasons:

1) The economy will not get any better for Trump and probably will get worse.

2) Trump cannot count on Democratic apathy in 2020.

3) Democrats in 2020 are not Republicans in 2016. Right-wing commentators are desperately trying to pump up Democratic presidential candidates who might roil the party, such as Marianne Williamson or Tulsi Gabbard. It’s not easy to dismiss the possibility, as four years ago a fringe candidate managed to win the GOP nomination. But as for actual polling, Williamson (and Gabbard) remain close to zero.

So, to sum up: Trump’s economy looks weaker than it did three months ago, and the trend line is worrisome for his reelection campaign. Democrats seem both energized and pragmatic.

www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/08/07/why-i-think-chances-donald-t
rumps-re-election-are-getting-worse/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

I already covered the economy. Because of the Democratic debates that no nominee will be able to walk back to the center, Trump wins on the economy either way. Either the economy is doing "great" like it is now, or it really takes a shit before the election. If the latter happens, anybody debating Trump 1 on 1 is going to have to explain how they plan on paying for open boarders, freebies for citizens as well as anybody we're going to start letting in without any resistance at all and any reparations that they've been bringing up in the debates.

I don't see what's "pragmatic" about any of those stances, especially in a down economy.

As for the energy, I already addressed that as well. Everybody on the extremely broad Democrat spectrum right now sees at least one candidate that speaks their language. It's easy for you and Marcos to be in agreement on things right now when he's got ultra-leftwing socialist nutjobs on that stage, but what happens to Marcos and all of his black mask clad buddies when Biden wins the primary? Are they going to meet you at the poll and vote for Biden? I wouldn&#

SECOND

Monday, August 19, 2019 11:25 PM

Story about Trump's Trade Wars crashing the Economy . . . for RVs

Multiyear drops in RV shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind.

Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

Wait. What’s this about rising prices due to tariffs?

RVs can range in price from about $12,000 for a folding camping trailer to $212,000 for a high-end motor home, according to average retail prices collected by the RV Industry Association. The prices have been sensitive to the U.S. tariffs imposed on some Chinese goods. The industry estimates that as many as 523 items could be hit by the tariffs, everything from the toilet-seat covers that go into RV bathrooms and cow hides for leather furniture to the aluminum or steel used throughout the vehicles.

Divya Brown, the president of Houston-based TAXA Outdoors, a small RV manufacturer, said her company bought most of its parts from Elkhart, Indiana. Her suppliers are raising their prices to account for the hit they are taking from imported goods such as aluminum and steel. Ms. Brown said the company saw a 22% jump in the cost of steel and a 9% jump in the cost of aluminum.

www.wsj.com/articles/one-countys-rv-industry-points-to-recession-aroun
d-the-bend-11566207001

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

THG

Saturday, August 24, 2019 7:08 PM

T

SECOND

Saturday, August 31, 2019 2:04 AM

On the eve of Trump’s trade war, U.S. agricultural exports were almost 40 percent of the value of farm production, up from just 15 percent circa 1970.

It shouldn’t have been hard to predict that Trumponomics would be bad for farmers. Trump’s desire for a trade war was out in the open from the beginning; protectionism is right up there with racism and anti-environmentalism as one of his core values. And a trade war was bound to hurt farm exports. Did anyone really imagine that China, an economic superpower with its own fierce nationalism, wouldn’t retaliate against U.S. tariffs?

So what were farmers thinking? My guess is that they let the will to believe override their judgment. Trump seemed like their kind of guy. He certainly seemed to share their dislike for urban elites who look down on people like them. So they convinced themselves that he knew what he was doing, that he would win his trade war and that they would be among the victors sharing the spoils.

Even now many farmers seem to believe that the pain will end any day now, that Trump will soon announce a deal that restores all the old markets and more.

So what will happen as the trade war drags on? Don’t expect farmers to suddenly exclaim en masse, “Hey, we’ve been had!” Real life doesn’t work that way. But they have, in fact, been had, and they may finally be starting to realize it.

Farmers are hurting financially. Investors are worried about a possible recession for the economy as a whole, but the farm recession is already here, with falling incomes, rising delinquency rates and surging bankruptcies.

www.nytimes.com/2019/08/29/opinion/trump-trade-farmers.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, August 31, 2019 3:37 AM

lol

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Sunday, September 1, 2019 6:45 PM

T

THG

Tuesday, October 15, 2019 10:59 PM

As part of a cease-fire deal on Friday, China agreed to buy up to $50 billion in US farm products, while the US said it would suspend a tariff increase on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports that was set to take effect Tuesday. – CBS News

Yet those agreements have not been put on paper by either side. Early Monday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed the preliminary pact was "subject to documentation." The US could still slap additional import taxes on virtually all imports from China in December. – Business Insider

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-china-trade-relations/sl-AA
IM15f

'Nothing-burger': US-China truce leaves big issues for later

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/nothing-burger-us-china-truce-lea
ves-big-issues-for-later/ar-AAILUyo?ocid=msn360

T

THG

Thursday, October 31, 2019 5:49 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by reaverfan:

American banks won't go near him. That's why Russia owns him.

economics
China Doubts Long-Term Trade Deal Possible With Trump

Chinese officials are casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the U.S. even as the two sides get close to signing a “phase one” agreement.

In private conversations with visitors to Beijing and other interlocutors in recent weeks, Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest issues, according to people familiar with the matter. They remain concerned about President Donald Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk he may back out of even the limited deal both sides say they want to sign in the coming weeks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/china-said-to-doubt
-long-term-trade-deal-possible-with-trump

T

THG

Sunday, November 3, 2019 12:13 AM

Way to go Donnie.

China Wins WTO Case to Sanction $3.6 Billion in U.S. Trade

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-wins-wto-case-to-sanctio
n-dollar36-billion-in-us-trade/ar-AAJGCOm?ocid=spartandhp

T

SECOND

Wednesday, November 6, 2019 7:05 PM

Trump Vowed to Shrink the Trade Gap. It Just Grew.

Trump has pointed to the trade deficit — an excess of American imports over exports — as a sign of a hollowed-out manufacturing sector, and promised to shrink the figure by reworking the terms of trade between the United States and other countries.

The data released Tuesday suggest that the global trade wars Mr. Trump has launched have not had the desired effect.

The overall United States trade deficit continued to widen in the first nine months of 2019, data released Tuesday morning show, defying a Trump administration plan to try to shrink the figure by renegotiating trade agreements.

https://montrealtimes.news/trump-vowed-to-shrink-the-trade-gap-it-just
-grew/

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Tuesday, December 17, 2019 5:57 AM

How Trump lost his Trade War by speaking loudly and carrying a small stick.

Trade wars rarely have victors. They do, however, sometimes have losers.

Of course, that’s not the way Trump and his team are portraying the tentative deal they’ve struck with China, which they’re claiming as a triumph. The reality is that the Trump administration achieved almost none of its goals; it has basically declared victory while going into headlong retreat.

And the Chinese know it. As The Times reports, Chinese officials are “jubilant and even incredulous” at the success of their hard-line negotiating strategy.

To understand what just went down, you need to ask what Trump and company were trying to accomplish with their tariffs, and how that compares with what really happened.

1) First and foremost, Trump wanted to slash the U.S. trade deficit. In Trump’s mind countries win when they sell more than they buy, and nobody is going to convince him otherwise. So it’s remarkable to note that the trade deficit has risen, not fallen, on Trump’s watch, from $544 billion in 2016 to $691 billion in the 12 months ending in October.

2) Trump’s team also wanted to put the brakes on China’s drive to establish itself as the world’s economic superpower. “China is basically trying to steal the future,” declared Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser, a year ago. But the new deal, while it includes some promises to protect intellectual property, leaves the core of China’s industrial strategy — what’s been called the “vast web of subsidies that has fueled the global rise of many Chinese companies” — untouched.

3) Although Trump has repeatedly insisted that China is paying his tariffs, the facts say otherwise: Chinese export prices haven’t gone down, which means that the tariffs are falling on U.S. consumers and companies. And the bite on consumers would have gone up substantially if Trump hadn’t called off the round of further tariff increases that had been scheduled for this past Sunday.

4) Finally, uncertainty over tariff policy was clearly hurting manufacturing and business investment, even as overall economic growth remained solid. www.investors.com/news/economy/ism-manufacturing-index-10-year-low-chi
na-trade-war-takes-toll/

Trump basically declared victory and retreated.

Will Trump’s trade defeat hurt him politically? Probably not. Many Americans will surely buy the spin, and the trade war was never popular anyway.

More at www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/opinion/trump-china-trade.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

1KIKI

Tuesday, December 17, 2019 6:40 AM

As if NAFTA, CAFTA, SHAFTA were so great.

You don't care that people are getting the shaft, as long as democrats are doing it.

THG

Thursday, December 19, 2019 9:50 PM

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

`Band-Aid' China Deal Makes Trump Vulnerable to Democrats

THG

Friday, December 20, 2019 2:46 AM

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, December 20, 2019 3:12 AM

You goofballs are funny.

Can't even take a single day to celebrate a victory, no matter how empty and worthless it was.

I guess we're right back where we started, just like I said we would be.

Enjoy 5 more years of Trump. I know I'll enjoy 5 more years of calling your bullshit.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Saturday, December 28, 2019 8:32 PM

Fed study: Trump tariffs backfired, caused job losses and higher prices

President Donald Trump’s strategy to use import tariffs to protect and boost U.S. manufacturers backfired and led to job losses and higher prices, according to a Federal Reserve study released this week.

“We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” concluded Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, in an academic paper.

While the tariffs did reduce competition for some industries in the domestic U.S. market, this was more than offset by the effects of rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs, the study found.

“While the longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here, the results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector,” the study said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-study-finds-trump-tariffs-backfi
red-2019-12-27

Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary A?airs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf

Here you go Jack. Of course none of this will matter to the Trumpets. To them this will be more fake news.

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

THG

Saturday, December 28, 2019 8:37 PM

Trump's Trade Wars - another disaster

Wednesday, July 25, 2018 2:35 PM

CAPTAINCRUNCH

Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary A?airs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf

Here you go G. You called this in real time.

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

THG

Saturday, January 4, 2020 7:48 PM

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Saturday, January 4, 2020 8:07 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

Racist.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, January 14, 2020 11:01 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 1KIKI:
As if NAFTA, CAFTA, SHAFTA were so great.

You don't care that people are getting the shaft, as long as democrats are doing it.

Based on data from China, the US trade deficit with China continued on the same trendline it has followed the eight years since the end of the Great Recession.

The thing to notice here is that 2018 was much worse than normal. In 2019, all that happened is that our trade deficit with China returned to normal, which means ever increasing. The data here suggests that Trump’s trade war has accomplished nothing in terms of lowering the trade deficit with China.

The chart showing Trump's total failure is at
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/01/the-us-trade-deficit-with-china
-returned-to-normal-in-2019/

Don't worry if you can't understand it, 1kiki, because Trump will be bragging very soon about the total success he had negotiating with China, while the actual policy is a total fiasco: Trump’s Supporters See U.S. Victory in China Trade Deal. The president says his “big, beautiful” trade deal is a win for America. His supporters agree.

President Trump’s supporters nodded approvingly last week as Mr. Trump extolled the “big, beautiful monster” of a trade deal that he will sign with China on Wednesday.

The enthusiastic group, gathered at Toledo’s Huntington Center, nodded again as Mr. Trump insisted that America’s farmers, who have been hurt by the trade war with China, were winners and as he asserted, incorrectly, that American importers were not paying for the tariffs.

“And now the deal is done,” Mr. Trump said.

The packed arena roared triumphantly. (What a herd of morons.)
www.nytimes.com/2020/01/14/us/politics/trump-china-trade-deal.html

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

THG

Tuesday, January 14, 2020 11:43 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.
]

Racist

You really don't know much about anything do you Jack?

Chinese dragons are powerful and benevolent symbols in Chinese culture,
with supposed control over watery phenomenon, e.g.
summoning rain during a drought. Dragons are everywhere in China —
in legends, festivals, astrology, art, names, and idioms.

https://www.chinahighlights.com/travelguide/article-chinese-dragons.ht
m

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

JEWELSTAITEFAN

Thursday, January 23, 2020 4:38 AM

Yep.

Trump's disastrous Trade Deal with China has forced the Dow to drop all the way down to All-Time Record Highs, above 29K.

Genius, author of this thread.

THG

Friday, January 24, 2020 8:38 PM

Trump Roars, and Davos Shrugs

DAVOS, Switzerland—Two years ago President Donald Trump flew here and took the gathering of elites at the World Economic Forum by storm. Every conversation seemed to revolve around the American leader and his signature brand of political disruption.

Trump came back this year, and was greeted with a shrug.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/trump-roars-and-davos-shrugs/ar
-BBZdZTW?ocid=msn360

The world is done with Trump...

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

6IXSTRINGJACK

Friday, January 24, 2020 8:53 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Trump Roars, and Davos Shrugs

DAVOS, Switzerland—Two years ago President Donald Trump flew here and took the gathering of elites at the World Economic Forum by storm. Every conversation seemed to revolve around the American leader and his signature brand of political disruption.

Trump came back this year, and was greeted with a shrug.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/trump-roars-and-davos-shrugs/ar
-BBZdZTW?ocid=msn360

The world is done with Trump...

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

I think the world is done with America.

They're just pissed off now that they don't have a president that literally bends down and kisses everybody's ring like Obama did.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

THG

Friday, January 24, 2020 9:44 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Quote:
Originally posted by THG:
Trump Roars, and Davos Shrugs

DAVOS, Switzerland—Two years ago President Donald Trump flew here and took the gathering of elites at the World Economic Forum by storm. Every conversation seemed to revolve around the American leader and his signature brand of political disruption.

Trump came back this year, and was greeted with a shrug.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/trump-roars-and-davos-shrugs/ar
-BBZdZTW?ocid=msn360

The world is done with Trump...

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

I think the world is done with America.

They're just pissed off now that they don't have a president that literally bends down and kisses everybody's ring like Obama did.

I am not posting this in response to you, Jack. I am posting it to show others who read it, the contrast between your understandings of the world and how ignorant you are. An ignorance shared by Trump and his Trumpets.

Trump is destroying Americas’ influence globally. Influences that took generations to create. Those influences allowed us to marshal the world’s powers to promote American interests. It began with the destruction of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

You stupid, ignorant loser.

"China has overtaken the US with the largest diplomatic network in the 2019 Lowy Institute Global Diplomacy Index.

The 2019 Global Diplomacy Index, released on Wednesday by the Lowy Institute, takes stock of how the world’s diplomatic networks are expanding and shrinking. Of the 61 countries covered in the Index – among them all OECD, G20, and most Asian countries – 34 grew their networks between 2017 and 2019.

With a hollowed-out State Department – only 73% of key positions are filled, according to the Washington Post’s tracker set up for this purpose – and the Trump administration’s attempts to cut the State Department and USAID budgets by up to 23%, American diplomacy is looking rudderless."

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/world-diplomacy-stocktak
e-shifting-ranks

T

Deep state describes dedicated, educated professionals.

SECOND

Tuesday, February 18, 2020 7:52 PM

This morning's Trump tweet:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

The United States cannot, & will not, become such a difficult place to deal with in terms of foreign countries buying our product, including for the always used National Security excuse, that our companies will be forced to leave in order to remain competitive. We want to sell product and goods to China and other countries. That’s what trade is all about. We don’t want to make it impossible to do business with us. That will only mean that orders will go to someplace else. As an example, I want China to buy our jet engines, the best in the World.

I have seen some of the regulations being circulated, including those being contemplated by Congress, and they are ridiculous. I want to make it EASY to do business with the United States, not difficult. Everyone in my Administration is being so instructed, with no excuses...

....THE UNITED STATES IS OPEN FOR BUSINESS!

8:37 AM · Feb 18, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1229776842644709378

Very smart Trump has found a clever way to put Boeing out of business and replace it with Made-In-China planes:

Trump blasts proposed U.S. restrictions on sale of jet parts to China
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/trump-blasts-proposed-u-s-r
estrictions-on-sale-of-jet-parts-to-china-idUSKBN20C1ZV

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

SECOND

Monday, July 6, 2020 11:53 PM

Carmakers Choose Mexico Over U.S., Despite Trump's Claim NAFTA Would Create Jobs

The new NAFTA, known as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), requires at least 40 percent of vehicles to be manufactured where workers earn at least $16 an hour in order for the vehicles to be tariff-free within the region. The condition was aimed at helping boost production in the U.S., where hourly wages are higher than in Mexico. Rather than move jobs back to America, the manufacturers raised wages in Mexico to $16 per hour.

Several carmakers, who had previously laid out their production bases according to the old NAFTA deal, are willing to raise labor costs or pay the tariffs to keep operations running in Mexico and ultimately avoid the cost of moving production.

Keihin, a Japanese car parts maker associated with Honda, is reportedly raising its hourly wages for factory workers in Mexico to the required $16 minimum this month, which is triple the average pay rate of a parts factory in Mexico.

Despite Keihin tripling labor costs, raising wages was reported to be cheaper than the cost of moving following the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Nikkei reported.

Japanese car parts maker Piolax is also planning to raise the hourly wage at its Mexican plant to $16 within this year to meet the USMCA requirements. The company is also installing robots to help curtail the increasing labor costs, Pilolax President Yukihiko Shimazu confirmed.

Around 13 to 14 percent of all cars sold in the U.S. are expected to be subject to tariffs, according to U.S. research agency the Center for Automotive Research. Consumers may foot the bill of these tariffs should carmakers pass on the cost to consumers by hiking car prices, which could rise by $470 to $2,200.

The center also estimated 70,000 to 360,000 jobs will be lost, leading to a $6 billion to $30.4 billion reduction in GDP (about $85,000 per job lost), while U.S. car sales will drop by up to 1.3 million units annually due to the Trump administration's trade policy, including sanctions on China.

Back in January, Trump noted that renegotiating NAFTA was "probably the number one reason that I decided to lead this crazy life that I'm leading right now," while signing the USMCA. "I keep my promises, and I'm fighting for the American worker," Trump said. Too bad you destroyed 360,000 American jobs, Trump, to keep your promise, but you did make Mexicans richer. That would count for something if Mexicans could vote for an American President.

More at www.newsweek.com/carmakers-choose-mexico-over-us-despite-trumps-claim-
nafta-would-create-jobs-1515637

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, July 7, 2020 6:30 AM

Nobody cares.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

SECOND

Tuesday, July 7, 2020 8:14 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6IXSTRINGJACK:
Nobody cares.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

American auto workers care that Trump killed 360,000 jobs. Mexican auto workers care that they will get $13.50/hour pay increase because of Trump.

According to AlixPartner data, Mexican workers at parts plants make around $1.50 an hour, with those on an automotive assembly line earning $2.50. Work in the U.S. varies from company to company, but even low-end parts jobs generate 10 times the pay, with assembly lines at a Ford or General Motors plant worth $70 an hour or more in pay and benefits.
www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/it-s-already-been-rough-year-au
tomakers-was-usmca-n1232641

Fewer jobs in America. More jobs in Mexico. Trump should be proud of what he did.

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

6IXSTRINGJACK

Tuesday, July 7, 2020 8:51 AM

Fake news.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

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