2025 Wide Release Prediction Game Thread
POSTED BY: 6ixStringJack
UPDATED: Tuesday, April 28, 2026 17:16
VIEWED: 30639
PAGE 1 of 6
On January 2nd, I got a reply in the 2024 Hollywood thread from Second that read as follows....
Quote:
You are unaware that most movies are failures. By predicting failure, you will be a success most of the time.
This statement, while obviously untrue, was meant to be a dig at me after Jaynez has congratulated me several times inside the Cinema and RWED boards regarding my picks for the year. I wasn't flawless. I doubt anybody ever could have a flawless record on this for an entire year. But I did pretty damn good overall.
This got me thinking, why not make a game of it since we're all going to be here anyway?
Here's what I propose...
Every week, we know in advance thanks to the-numbers.com which movies are being released in the box office every Friday, and a breakdown of which movies will get a Wide vs. a Limited release. In fact, if you look at the list now, you'll realize that they've already put up a loose plotting for every movie that is set to be released for the year right now.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule
While those dates are subject to change, particularly the further from today's date you go out, that would give a great roadmap of movies to look at for future predictions as you're making your predictions for the current week.
I'm going to leave the 2nd post here for the actual rules, because I don't think I could actually come up with a full list that wouldn't overlook something I hadn't thought of, or that a rule I put down now wouldn't somehow inadvertently suck the fun out of it.
Some suggestions I have made would be to allow anyone to abstain on a vote for a movie, or miss an entire week altogether. They can't gain any points if they don't bet, but they can't lose any either.
Another suggestion was to award or penalize a different point amount depending on the budget. I was thinking maybe +/- 3 points for any movie over $100 Million, while only +/- 2 points or mid-budget movies between $25 and $99 Million, and +/- 1 point for any movie with a budget under $20 Million.
Oh... and we're betting to see which movies can gross 2.5 times the Production Budget and which can't. That's the only qualifying factor here when determining what is and what isn't a loser.
I figure I'll start it off by myself if nobody is interested, and unless Second jumps in at any point he's going to bet that every movie is a loser since that was his claim, and we'll see what happens.
Let me know if you're interested in this and if you have any suggestions for rules.
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[rules] To be determined.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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quote
Hollywood’s Sequel-Led Comeback Projected to Extend Into 2025
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/hollywood-s-sequel-
led-comeback-projected-to-extend-into-2025
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What say you Jaynez? Want to play?
With all those smaller Wide releases that come out, I think it could be interesting. I don't believe I'll have any inherent advantage over anybody else because of them. I've only ever spent time tracking movies like that if they were somehow special. Whether it be especially bad or especially good. The only ones that come to mind right now are Sound of Freedom, Five Nights at Freddy's, The Blackening, Asteroid City and Champions. And those were all from 2023.
But the problem is that we might have to create rules that end up ditching a lot of them by default too, if we can't find any budget information on them. There weren't a ton of low-budget movies to make it into my 2023 list, but 100% of the movies that I struggled to find budget numbers for were from these smaller studios.
Maybe I'm making it too difficult for anybody else to want to play.
Want to just start out playing the game for any movie that cost over $50 Million? $100 Million?
Oh... BTW... I know I didn't mention it in this new thread, but this week was a Bye week. There are no wide releases in 2025 until next weekend.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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All Flops! Everything will start flopping.
Jan Feb is usually a bad time
Until the month March maybe
The two big ones in the World Wide Markets the USA and China, the European market is big and Japan is somewhat big-ish but European culture public holidays are not too different from the USA. I know people don't like this but for simplification you could say Australia or Canada is very 'American' culture also and put the Orient as a 'bloc' of East culture, the SKorea, Japan holidays are not too different from other in Asia but they do have extra holidays Vernal Equinox Day March it seems to have been Pagan Shinto until it was made official in modern Japan, Emperor's Birthday, National Foundation Day and Coming of Age .
In the USA there are informal holidays Valentine's Day, Saint Patrick's Day, and holidays that have become less marked by Federal holiday Martin Luther King Jr. Day a floating Monday Washington's Birthday.
In Asia Chinese New Year's Eve is the big time off celebration period, 1st, 2nd and 3rd they don't have any other holidays until 'Tomb-Sweeping Day' April, SKorean does celebrate a Lunar New Year and Independence Movement Day but its box office is small compared to the rest of the world so it can almost be ignored. Australia stands out having summers while the Northern hemisphere of the planet has winters, the Commonwealth of Australia does not agree with itself different parts have different holidays in the Federal parliamentary constitutional monarchy system, there is an agreement 'Anzac Day' is to be celebrated, Australia Day in January, Good Friday is a Christian holy day observing the crucifixion of Jesus and his death at Calvary, I think the Aussie and Japan markets can be ignored for now despite having unique and interesting vacation periods...Australia markets and Japan box office are too small compared to the overall picture.
Yep people have different languages and yup the world has different cultural holidays, Valentines? In Japan the woman gives the man gifts, Giri choco "obligation chocolate" is chocolate given by women to men on Valentine's Day
You do however sometimes get box office hits this time of year Spider-Man No Way Home, Avatar, Star Wars Rogue One, Aquaman, Bob Marley One Love, Sonic et
So Jan Feb is not always failure.
The Rom Drama movie is more difficult to predict as it will change as fashions and attitudes change, 'Pretty Woman' for example was a huge hit but I don't think it would do good today there are movies like 'Fifty Shades of Grey' which have more sado sexual elements.
Teens are growing up quicker they are no longer watching Harry Potter but also The Twilight Saga.
I think the era of some weird feminist woman writing a weird fantasy about two Cowboys in a homosexual 'Brokeback Mountain' relationship is over, I dont see that becoming a hit again any time soon.
It Ends With Us showing that 'Movies for Women' aimed and women can 'Achieve Box-Office Success' especially when the budget is low.
I had a look at your other thread 'Abysmal Numbers' and replied
'Den of Thieves 2' Flop
Game Changer Flopping
'Better Man' Flop
Hard Truths another Flop
If a Tamil Bollywood Telugu Hindi movie opens in China is well distributed across Chinese cities and the Indian budget is low then it has a chance for success.
I'm calling everything a flop until I see budgets but if you keep a movie under 100 Million that's good
if its less than 50 Million product budget that's even better and it has a great chance of success
Hollywood should also be making cheap slasher horrors seen that the genre did so well...then tinsel town got scared and terrified by Scott Cawthon...too Christian? he didn't hate Trump?
the problem today is Hollywood has learned nothing since its 2018 decline, nothing since Covid and learned nothing since DEI stuff gown. Hoolweird failed to understand SJW politics is
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Well it's not much of a game if it's just me playing against two guys who call every movie a flop.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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by Summer?
Let us be real about the market and the insane Hollywood budgets and political messages that cost them profits
if it was 2007 then movies that struggle today would be making money
in year 2013 a movie like Kraven or Nosferatu could have made money but today
Joss movie The Avengers was a 2012 film, its unfair to expect hits like Avengers all the time but you can still have box office hits
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Kraven the Hunter (2024) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Kraven-the-Hunter-(2024)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
whats coming up...Star Trek Section 31, One of Them Days a comedy 'Sony', 'Henry Danger' a superhero, Brave the Dark it had previews and liked by film fest critics, Screamboat a parody of Mickey Mouse that is public domain made into a horror.
PREDICTIONS
The Legend of Ochi makes money, an Indie US studio that films many its scenes overseas
Mickey 17 makes money
28 Years Later hit and a horror like robot Megan-2
March to Summer
a low budget Drama or Rom-Com does well, Superman and Dinosaurs and SpongeBob or some Dreamworks Disney Pixar animation
a movie from China is successful and knocks down a Hollywood film
By Summer 2025 a number of foreign language films will be in the Top10 maybe a few more in the top20 and their sucess will have cost an expensive Hollywood production its profits and helped 2 Hollywood films flop
it could be an indie Canadian slasher horror Canada movie studio or it could be Spanish or German or Japanese or French or South Korean movie that knocks down Hollywood but it is mostly likely to be a Chinese film these days that knocks Hollywood films out of the top ten or Top20
Mickey Mouse is public domain now, Screamboat is an upcoming American slasher film ...not sure.
because 'Iconic Events' studio is California I say they waste their budget on nonsense and its a fail...but I have no true budget numbers.
They did however make money with Terrifier 3 and maybe 'Iconic Events' also made some money with 'The Mitchells vs the Machines'...damaged by Covid but I think it did ok with 'streaming'
Flip a Coin on the Mickey Mouse horror?
'Thunderbolts' depends on word of mouth, critic rating, its marketing and its overseas take
news media, the Mouse is quiet, they won't tell us the budget
final film of Phase Five of the MCU.
I read they fight an evil parody of Superman called "Sentry"
currently in cinema? Kraven the Hunter from last year will continue to struggle, it can not earn much more on the global stage
Mufasa a remake on THE LION KING has been mostly rejected in Asia, China, SKorea, Japan
maybe a Hindi speaking Indian audience watched it but India is not a big market.
it has made money by Disney releasing it at the correct holiday period, global IMAX screens money and a strong hold with the French, the British, Mexico , Germany and Italy
add up 20 Million a few dozen millions to its profit if it has staying power
Successful Hollyweird films will mostly be Sequels or Prequels or re-imaginings or remakes or whatever you call them
Hollywood originality is dead
What also has changed
I think the foreign language thing is here to stay, expect a few of them to always be in the Top20 knocking down Hollywood tv and film
and a look back on 2023 and 2022
Barbie
The Super Mario Bros
Oppenheimer
Guardians of the Galaxy
Fast X
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
but then we had China ...
Full River Red
Wonka
The Little Mermaid
Mission Impossible
The Wandering Earth 2 $558,967,048 0.89%
No More Bets
Xiao Shi De Ta
Elemental
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
in year 2022
Avatar
Top Gun Maverick
Jurassic World Dominion
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Minions The Rise of Gru
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Thor Love and Thunder
and once again in the
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Wow.
That's a lot.
You'll have to remember that list of predictions is here and see how well you did when they're all said and done.
I was thinking more of a week-by-week thing... not predicting every major movie that's set to come out next year all at once.
What I found interesting about this challenge would include a lot of movies that none of us have ever given predictions on and would otherwise not really even notice went in and out of theaters while we were looking at the monster budgets.
But like I said, the challenge there would be realizing how many of those never get a stated production budget at all, let alone a timely one that would allow us to vote before we already know if it's doing well or not.
We would have to vote every Friday night, or early Saturday morning before the Friday numbers come in. Really, there would be no time that was too early to vote for a given opening night, but since Thursday preview numbers are a thing and we have a lot more info about a movie once the Friday morning news starts rolling out it would behoove you to wait until the last minute to vote every week.
Take a look at the release schedule and tell me if you think this would be interesting.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule
There were no wide releases this week, but there will be 5 on Friday. 2 of them will have Preview Thursday numbers, but 3 of them will not because they were already in theaters and are Expanding Wide on Friday.
(NOTE: "Wide" means more than 600 theaters, in case anybody didn't know or was wondering).
New Wide Releases:
Lionsgate's Den of Theives 2: Pantera
Schloka Entertainment's Game Changer
Expands Wide:
Paramount Pictures' Better Man
Bleecker Street's Hard Truths
Roadside Attraction's The Last Showgirl
......
And now that I look at all 5 of them, it becomes clear just how hard it probably would be do keep this up every week for a year.
5 Wide Releases only 4 days away and not a single one of them have a Production Budget number stated on The-Numbers.com.
If we nix this, which we probably will after finding out we have no budget information on anything, would you still be interested in tracking the bigger movies for a year and see who gets the most predictions correct?
That would be a hell of a lot easier for me to manage and would require a lot less commitment from anyone else playing along.
Come up with a figure. $50 Million? $80 Million? $100 Million or more?
We can always start with a high number and adjust things down if we wanted to make it more interesting.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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not sure of 2025 numbers but there are profits from Last year Kraven seems dead and Gladiator II won't make much more
Top movies seems like the foreign language stuff is already making a move while Hollywood sleeps?
Mufasa The Lion King
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Moana
The Damned an international film Belgium, USA, Iceland
Nosferatu
Wicked
Pororo Underwater adventure a movie from South Korea
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets has a 2025 Re-release
China is doing animation soon, Nezha part II Box office was not massive US$70 million but part 2 is expected to do better?then Chinese had a $740M+ box office cash in year 2019 hit and it had a cheap production Budget$20 million
Sony Group Deepens Investments in Booming Anime Sector
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ces-sony-grou
p-deepens-investments-anime-1236102709/
Nosferatu grossed $13.09M this weekend (from 3,132 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $69.29M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1876356796631421297
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The Numbers - Movies Released in 2024
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2024
There are hundreds of movies with $0 revenue, making it trivial to calculate those movies were unprofitable.
Then there are movies such as DarkGame (2024) with Worldwide Box Office $169,524
It has probably failed to be profitable, too.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/DarkGame-(2024-United-Kingdom)#tab=s
ummary
If you want to investigate each movie and calculate a profit, go ahead, but most of these movies lost money for the people who financed the production. On the other hand, the producers of films get paid, even when the movie loses money, which is why producers keep making movies.
Yes, most movies lose money:
• Production costs: The average cost to produce a major studio movie is around $100 million, which includes production, distribution, and marketing.
• Profit margins: According to American Film Market, 59% of movies lose money.
https://americanfilmmarket.com/do-good-reviews-matter/
• Independent films: Less than one-third of independent films recoup their investment.
• Factors that lead to losses: Movies can lose money due to high production costs, poor marketing, or lack of audience interest.
However, some movies that are considered box-office bombs can still break even or turn a profit through other revenue streams. For example, Cleopatra was a box-office bomb, but it eventually broke even when Fox sold the television broadcast rights to ABC.
Studios may also use creative accounting techniques to make it appear as if a movie is a loss when it's actually profitable. This is sometimes called Hollywood accounting.
https://www.google.com/search?q=do+most+movies+lose+money
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:I don't have a clear picture.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
[rules] To be determined.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
What is the goal, the time frame, the criteria, the result?
If we find a budget figure, you usually claim some other figure is correct, from various inconsistent sources, sometimes higher or lower.
Give an example of a completed game round.
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the Hollywood model is dead, it was dying with all these Weinstein scandals but now everyone knows the profits are not real they build up these fake small studios which then loan to the big studios, that math only works when you have big hits. So creative accounting mathematics are needed, "cooking the books" and when the show goes totally out of control...like when they spend 200 - 250 Million and see a Movie in complete collapse...then Bailout Time! Growth started to die in 2007 and 2008 then it really died in 2015, it has not recovered after Covid only a brief period with Barbenheimer and now you have it all crashing again.
No profits, failures and flops, they just get Vanguard, Blackrock etc to take tax payer Fed money and bailout the bankrupt broken studios.
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Give it until start of Feb, another month or two...if its a slow year maybe March
Lion King remake Mufasa and Moana are selling in China
Diamanti makes money for Italians, Rome in the 70s and prestigious tailoring.
Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 grossed $1.11M on Wednesday (from 3,746 locations).
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1877448917815623792
Nothing really moves yet..a horror from last year and some political Israel Palestine Middle east thing nobody wacthes
maybe give it another 20-30 days before it all gets moving
cash flow, it could be slow so maybe March we can start paying attention
Kraven currently at 58 M worldwide?
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. From Ground Zero (2025) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/From-Ground-Zero-(2025-Palestine)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
profits look better with
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (2024) vs. Nosferatu (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Sonic-the-Hedgehog-3-(2024)/Nosferatu-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
Nosferatu and LionKing Mufasa from Last year
whats still out there, Sonic , A Complete Unknown ( Bob Dylan ), Wicked, Moana, Gladiator II
Harbin from SKorea, Nickel Boys, Monte-Cristo got a sudden huge boost, the animated Japan style Lord of the Rings anime seems to struggle
and in real life LA is burning, on fire as the Mayor goes to Africa as the city burns
and not The Beekeeper 2024
'A Working Man'
it was a bad year for profits 2024 nothing as big as Inside Out 2, Oppenheimer, Barbie
a remake of The Running Man is coming
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1869851133109539324
,
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1877418976311128087
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Mel Gibson Says He Aims To Shoot ‘The Resurrection Of The Christ’ Next Year: “It’s Very Ambitious”
https://deadline.com/2025/01/mel-gibson-joe-rogan-the-resurrection-of-
the-christ-very-ambitious-1236253457/
Sleeping Dogs movie is dead, says star Donnie Yen
https://www.polygon.com/action/506279/sleeping-dogs-movie-donnie-yen-r
elease-update
Yen didn't provide any other specifics on what happened to the Sleeping Dogs movie, but it's not uncommon for Hollywood films to fall apart or trudge through the so-called development hell and never see the light of day for any number of reasons.
In 2021, Yen said his producing partners told him it was "going to happen," with plans to begin filming in 2022, but obviously that did not happen.
While Yen's Sleeping Dogs movie may never materialize, you can watch the 2024 Russell Crowe movie Sleeping Dogs or the 1977 film Sleeping Dogs starring Sam Neill. You could also watch Bobcat Goldthwait's 2006 movie Sleeping Dogs Lie about bestiality.
The original Sleeping Dogs game had players take control of undercover cop Wei Shen, who was tasked with infiltrating the Triad gangs operating in Hong Kong and gathering evidence on their various illegal activities.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/sleeping-dogs-movie-from-donnie-yen-
may-never-happen/1100-6528726/
Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown grossed $992K on Wednesday (from 2,835 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $44.99M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1877472810731258311
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So it looks like Late Feb before it starts to get moving
by this time there will be Warner Bros Companion (2025), Dreamworks movie Dog Man (2025) Wolf Man, The Last Showgirl (2025) ... foreign you have Birdeater which Australia have been moving through film fests since 2023, some good feedback some bad feedback, very mixed will it finally get a release in 2025? Any Indian Bollywood film would probably struggle at this time and Japan are still trying top push anime after some success Attack on Titan the Movie The Last Attack, after the LOTR anime struggled I don't see it making big money, Love Hurts is an upcoming American action comedy film about a guy who used to be a hitman by Universal Pictures....Disney Marvel are not pushing anything crazy but they will have the Snow White predicted 'Loss' to deal with
a lot of LA continues to burn to the ground
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it's Over!?
the End
Oscars 2025 nominations DELAYED amid catastrophic LA fires as Hollywood temporarily shuts down
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-14265201/Oscars-nominati
ons-delayed-la-fires-california-hollywood.html
Here Are All the TV and Movie Productions Paused Due to Los Angeles Fires
https://www.thewrap.com/california-fires-movie-tv-production-delays/
Hollywood thrown into chaos as wildfires rip through L.A., forcing evacuations, cancelling premieres
https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/hollywood-wildfire-los-angeles-1
.7425919
Critics Choice Awards, other film events postponed
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Flop?
Why Robbie Williams couldn't crack America as new biopic fails to impress US audience
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/robbie-williams-couldnt-cr
ack-america-34394078
VENOM: THE LAST DANCE
476.9M worldwide
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32003-venom-the-last-dance-33
71m-overseas-4769m-worldwide/#comments
Paramount's Better Man grossed an estimated $580K on Friday (from 1,291 locations), including Thursday previews. Estimated total domestic gross stands at $683K.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1878103831734571227
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Fires push movies to later years?
Universal Delays ‘Shrek 5’ to December 2026, Moves Up ‘Minions 3’ to July 2026
https://deadline.com/2025/01/shrek-5-minions-3-release-dates-123625412
2/
Nosferatu
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/
Domestic (71.1%)
$76,957,345
International (28.9%)
$31,218,714
Worldwide
$108,176,059
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Nosferatu (2024) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Nosferatu-(2024)/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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A24's The Brutalist
https://x.com/borreport/status/1878455270701240831
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its over much of it A Blaze , Smoke, Dust, Clouds of Ash and Fires...maybe they can save on the budget for the next Dystopia Zombie Apocalypse
and some fo California still burning
In 'a mass erasure of heritage,' numerous historic landmarks lost in L.A.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-01-12/landmarks-lost-pal
isades-and-eaton-fires
people re-direct flights away from California
a big expensive Olympics White Elephant to pay for
the Sun is dim, air quality down
Some ask cancel my trip to LA?
Looting and actual red flag alerts
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I didnt see the Brazil domestic market make such a quick comeback and strong comeback with its own cultural products, O Auto da Compadecida 2 'um filme brasileiro' Auto da Compadecida is a comedy of northeast Brazil, seems to be a media tradition that mixes elements of the tradition of popular literature known as cordel, a striking feature of the Brazilian Catholic baroque, mixing popular culture and religious tradition, popular and inexpensively printed booklets or pamphlets containing folk novels, poems and songs...the film is at second place which will cost Moana 2 and Mosferatu money.
There is a chance Hollywood products could really struggle overseas.
6.5 / 10
https://www.imdb.com/pt/title/tt28696532/
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not Hollywood a loss more the British and Aussie studio 'Roadshow Home Video' loss
however Paramount was involved in getting it to the US boxoffice cinema theatres
Robbie Williams mocked by Americans as new film Better Man flops at box office
https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1999965/robbie-williams-bette
r-man-ratings-flop
Robbie Williams’ $198m biopic Better Man becomes first box office bomb of 2025
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/robbie-williams-198m-biopic-b
etter-man-becomes-first-box-office-bomb-of-2025/TNLCRA7FE5FWFKR7OSNCFPUDQA/
Lionsgate's Den of Thieves 2: Pantera debuted with $15.02M domestically this weekend (from 3,008 locations).
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1878898519584743717
Daily Grosses
FRI - $5.749M
SAT - $5.845M
SUN - $3.429M
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. Better Man (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Better-Man-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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Oscars 'likely' to be cancelled for first time in 96 years due to LA wildfires
https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/breaking-oscars-likely-can
celled-first-34481628
The 2025 Oscars could be could be cancelled for the first time in its 96th-year history due to the Los Angeles wildfires as bosses fear the event could be in bad taste due to the devastation
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They can't zoom it?
Why can't they zoom it?
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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China's own Heroic Epic film like Ben Hur, Clash of the Titans, LOTR or Gladiator. The Chinese movies pushed forward but does China match Hollywood visuals
their own Greek Roman MarvelDC mythology, adapted from the 16th-century fantasy novels
Chinese films visual fantasy scifi quality has improved
but sometimes it feels like Tv show effects or a movie that was rushed, 'The Flash' League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Matrix Reloaded, Mortal Kombat, 'Green Lantern', Van Helsing, 'The Mummy Returns' , bad StarWars cgi not Sci-Fi Channel Original Movies or B-movie but they are lacking something
The amazing thing about Hollywood is when it did spectacle right, it did it very well, the sets, the CGI, the explosions, the mix of graphics with real life props. Terminator-2 and Jurassic Park still stand but other times it does not work
it is much better than it used to be
I feel the Chinese cinema still has a way to go to match Hollywood's visual ability to pull of the box office spectacle
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I'd love to see them remake the special effects on The Matrix with today's tech.
As mind-blowing as that movie was in its day, some of those scenes are pretty laughable today.
Other than that, it was the Perfect Movie... At least before they ruined it with the sequels and made Morpheus middle-management to a bunch of pre-BLM retards.
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Expect more delays with LA Fires
dates are jumping all over the place
Hollywood events postponed, canceled over LA fires: Weeknd concert, Oscar noms and more
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2025/01/13/lo
s-angeles-wildfires-hollywood-events-cancelations/77682459007/
Can overseas movies keep their budgets low and then find a strong studio to distribute movies inside the USA, the Japanese and some European for example have been pushing stuff for years but what about newbies with few connections??
expensive Indian flops trying to break into the US market or successful hits?
India Bollywood Hindi Tamil or Telugu-language
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14209618/
Indiatimes
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/telugu/movies/news/g
ame-changer-vanangaan-identity-and-more-south-india-cinema-set-to-ring-in-2025/articleshow/116740052.cms
'Game Changer', 'Vanangaan', 'Identity' and more South India cinema set to ring in 2025
Hong Kong, Cantonese, English
It took ‘months’ to convince Donnie Yen to direct and star in The Prosecutor
https://www.polygon.com/action/506278/donnie-yen-the-prosecutor-interv
iew
from last year 2024, continues to sell
Disney / Searchlight's A Complete Unknown grossed $965K on Tuesday (from 2,815 locations), which was a 30% decrease from the previous Tuesday. Total domestic gross stands at $52.48M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1879658074337956065
Focus' Nosferatu grossed $1.03M on Tuesday (from 3,082 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $83.66M
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1879617067722346713
The Last Showgirl
Domestic Opening $77,589
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt31193791/credits/
The Last Showgirl observes the demise of old-world eroticism with warmth
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/reviews/article-the-last-sho
wgirl-observes-the-demise-of-old-world-eroticism-with/
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. A Complete Unknown (2024)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Complete-Unknown-A-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
‘Companion,’ Sci-Fi Thriller
https://x.com/THR/status/1661825301163155472
Blumhouse Thriller 'The Woman in the Yard
an upcoming American psychological horror film, maybe March?
https://x.com/Variety/status/1757828551577940468
Stephen King Adaptation 'The Monkey'
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1655963200930856960
more flops?
Iron Man 3 (2013) vs. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025) vs. The Last Showgirl (2025)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Den-of-Thieves-2-Pantera-(2025)/Last-Showgirl-The-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
Superman will miss the 4th day of July? maybe or maybe not ...maybe delayed until 11...if so that's a kiss of death 2025
Until Dawn playstation
https://x.com/DEADLINE/status/1801668439112880553
many thought concept could have worked as a movie
not tv they say it goes ahead Until Dawn scheduled to be released in the United States on April 2025.
Battle of Baktan Cross, they say its based on 'Vineland' set in California, United States, in 1984, the year of Ronald Reagan's re-election
According to Variety, the film will need to gross $300 million to turn a profit
Lewis Pullman as Bob/Sentry in ‘THUNDERBOLTS*'
https://x.com/cosmic_marvel/status/1868672014250328300
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Robbie Williams “Better Man” Is A Disastrous Flop
,
Better Man - Movie Review
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Focus' Nosferatu grossed an estimated $1.20M on Friday (from 2,545 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $86.30M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1880646723980378299
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Budget $14 million
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/wolf-man-one-of-them-days-box
-office-opening-weekend-projections-holiday-1236273297/
Sony's One of Them Days grossed an estimated $4.38M domestically on Friday (from 2,675 locations), including Thursday previews.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1880644166126059628
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Harbin eats some Hollywood profits in SKorea, holding second place a 2024 South Korean biographical period drama about a Korean independence activist who assassinated Ito Hirobumi, the first Prime Minister of Japan, in 1909
Paramount's Sonic the Hedgehog 3 grossed $456K on Wednesday (from 3,306 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $220.22M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1882526267557470637
not that the NZ market really matters much to the overall picture...but
Weekend Box Office Est. - New Zealand
https://x.com/numeroboxoffice/status/1881144079750434888
1. SonicTheHedgehog3 - $232k
2. PaddingtonInPeru - $228k
3. MufasaTheLionKing - $227k
'Fall Guy' Director David Leitch In Talks For 'Oceans 14'
https://deadline.com/2025/01/david-leitch-oceans-14-talks-1236264161/
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even though China was knocking Hollywood movies out of the Top 20, top25, top10...it actually slumped going by the numbers
Worldwide cinema is down
China’s film industry hopes for a box office revival after last year’s slump
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-film-industry-box-offi
ce-movie-production-economy-4853621
a new direction for Star Wars and Star Trek that fails?
The First Star Trek: Section 31 Reactions Are Brutal
https://www.slashfilm.com/1769548/star-trek-section-31-reactions-bruta
l/
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That's pretty bad when China has 3 movies that grossed over $1 Billion USD in a year in total and they're considering that a slump.
What? Are they being embarrassed by Japan when it comes to their production budgets too? How much are these movies costing China to make?
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It's kind of funny how little I care about this topic these days.
Not really though, I guess, considering I hardly watch movies or TV shows anymore.
I was just watching for the first signs of the pendulum swinging back the other way, and I found them in Hollywood 2 years ago.
Since then, everything has changed. Just like I said it would.
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2025 a bad start maybe its time to talk about the hope of money in 2026 maybe this could be massive?
Not sure on China numbers, I'd like to see all the data, I've a feeling the Covid Lockdowns then Writers strike and Actors strikes gave Chinese an artificial lift taking over market share...then others seen an opportunity, Germany, Brazil, Japan, Spain, South Korea and also wanted a share of profits from tv ratings and cinema tickets.
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Quote:I still don't understand the rules of this game.
Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:Quote:I don't have a clear picture.
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
[rules] To be determined.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
What is the goal, the time frame, the criteria, the result?
If we find a budget figure, you usually claim some other figure is correct, from various inconsistent sources, sometimes higher or lower.
Give an example of a completed game round.
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We never came around to any. Nobody seemed interested in it.
Are you?
It might pull me back into paying attention again. Otherwise the topic has become pretty boring to me now because it already told me what it needed to tell me.
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One Month almost over....Wolf Man 28 $ million worldwide, The Last Showgirl $4 million Domestic
Ruskie have their version of Wizard of Oz, The Wizard of the Emerald City, Central Partnership a Russian film distribution and production company founded in 1995, distributor was acquired by Russian gas company Gazprom
Dog Toto renamed as Totoshka
there is a horror hated by critics and cinema fans, Presence
an overseas Brazil film about a family in a 1970s dictatorship, Ainda Estou Aqui
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Ruskie have their version of Wizard of Oz, The Wizard of the Emerald City, Central Partnership a Russian film distribution and production company founded in 1995, distributor was acquired by Russian gas company Gazprom
Dog Toto renamed as Totoshka
It's gotta be better than Turkish Spider-Man, right?
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I think there was also a Japanese power rangers mecha ninja costume one, somewhat better than Turksploitation film.
even had theme tunes
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Can't be too mad at them.
We basically stole their Gundam stuff and made an industry out of it with Transformers, Go-Bots and MASK.
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China makes money and people walk out
$400 Million in China Alone: Nezha 2’s Box Office Prediction Is Big Enough to Make Disney and Warner Bros Jealous
https://fandomwire.com/400-million-in-china-alone-nezha-2s-box-office-
prediction-is-big-enough-to-make-disney-and-warner-bros-jealous/
worse than Joker-2?
Mexican moviegoers are asking for a refund after watching ‘Emilia Pérez’ in theaters
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/mexicans-asking-for-refund-after-w
atching-emilia-perez/
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Will Forte Says Warner Bros. Shelving ‘Coyote vs. Acme’ for $30 Million Tax Write-Off Is ‘F—ing Bulls—‘ and ‘Makes My Blood Boil,’ Tells Fans Not to Forget What the Studio Did
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/will-forte-warner-bros-shelving-coy
ote-vs-acme-bullshit-1236298828/
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Yeah...
That's one I'm really hoping gets leaked. For the exact opposite reason that I've never given up hope that the Batgirl movie gets leaked.
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its worse than I thought for Hollyweird
I did not think a Russian movie would also knock Hollywood out of the top ten but it did
‘Ne Zha 2’ Becomes Highest-Grossing Movie Ever In A Single Market As China Box Office Haul Overtakes ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ Domestic Record
https://deadline.com/2025/02/ne-zha-2-box-office-china-1236281764/
Interstellar Takes A Fantastic Start In India, Earns 83% Of Its Original Opening Day Collection
https://www.koimoi.com/box-office/interstellar-re-release-box-office-d
ay-1-takes-a-fantastic-start-earns-83-of-its-original-opening-day-collection/
1 Ne Zha 2
2 Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
3 Dog Man
4 One of Them Days
then at Fifth Place some Russian movie
China has made most of those earnings at home, 911,000,000 in its own domestic market...it should have huge money when its international release comes in
One of Them Days is an American buddy comedy, Black Female Feminist films? is also mostly its own domestic US market... two friends who must scramble to find rent money after their boyfriends buy weed, booze, gamble, not rent as the boyfriend blows through it, positive reviews from Hollywood magazine critics, the movie stars two pop hiphop music singers?
the Russian movie is a remake of some Wizard of Oz thing, The Wizard of the Emerald City 2024
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Yeah this one is making money, huge money...I was think March but who knows with all the delays, strikes, fires etc but then May its Disney / Marvel knocking those Chinese movies down and claiming the top spot
'Thunderbolts'
ok...not A-Listers like Ironman, Captain America etc but Sebastian Stan, Florence Pugh all of the characters already established
'the Sentry' an evil Superman type character
less gore so kid friendly R rating while mass murdering people, I expect a lot of Marvel characters to die...big drama
the China market is back with a bang and here to stay ...Chinese movie currently projecting $1.64 Billion
to put this number in perspective its up there with the biggest movies of all time on its domestic market along, Inside Out 2 was 1.6 Billion, 1998 Armageddon was over half a Billion or 500 Million that is $550,000,000 + , Independence Day or ID4 was over 800 Mil or $800,000,000 + plus, then Japan anime hit during Covid Demon Slayer Mugen Train $507,120,000 + then Spider-Man No Way Home was 1.9 Billion Globally, Barbie was 1.4 Billion...Worldwide!
the China movie even if it only sells 100 bucks over seas on some remote island they have already won
China: Ne Zha 2 rakes in $1bn in days and stirs national pride
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgm0w90vnxo
‘Ne Zha 2’ At $1.1B In China Through Sunday, Already No. 7 Animated Movie Ever WW; ‘Mufasa’ Tops $671M Global, ‘Paddington In Peru’ Crosses $100M Overseas – International Box Office
https://deadline.com/2025/02/ne-zha-2-china-mufasa-global-internationa
l-box-office-1236283319/
China Box Office: ‘Ne Zha 2’ Crosses $1.1 Billion as Market Surges Past $2 Billion in 2025
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/china-box-office-ne-zha-2-1-b
illion-1236302317/
Korea Box Office: ‘Hitman 2’ Leads Again as ‘Nocturnal’ Debuts in Third Place
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/korea-box-office-hitman-2-noc
turnal-1236302336/
Captain America Brave New World 2025 will it make money?
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Dog-Man-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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Wow!
11 days in the Chinese Box office: $1,046,643,285
Take a look at the top 2025 list...
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2025
#2 is Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, which is sitting just over $50 Million as we speak.
Good luck, Hollywood. You'll need it!
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Captain America Brave New World seems like it can go anywhere between 250 million and 350 domestic,
but its not steady, unpredictable
DC Warner Bros also stumbles
So where is Hollyweird culture and profits now?
New Captain America could still do well, however it has a bad rotten tomatoes score, it has started to curve down a little but not as bad as Den of Thieves 2 Pantera or the Robie Williams film that woeful Failure to Launch at all
Movie Comparison: Captain America: Brave New World (2025) vs. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) vs. Barbie (2023)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Captain
-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)/Ant-Man-and-the-Wasp/Barbie-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
a low end could send it in the direction of Aquaman, Logan, Antman and the Wasp numbers...kits getting bad world of mouth, some overall bad feedback, its not bad but its not great either
Marvel Cinematic Universe: Phase Five continues its stumbles although the violent toilet humor and gore of Deadpool & Wolverine was a hit with fans.
so if its moving in the direction of 250 million and 350 domestic...how does it do overseas? I'm guessing its not likeJurassic Parks sequels, Spider-Man, Avatar, Titanic...everyone around the world liked Spider-Man, Dinosaurs and the Titanic story. I think its overseas appeal will have limits but it won't be as poorly received as other poor overseas for example 'Twisters'
it is impossible for it to fail as bad as Kraven, Green Lantern and other flops
Disney Marvel managed to fudge the numbers to give it a 100 Million opening
so with rumors of reshoots of New Captain America
I wonder what the true budget is
got a feeling Thudnerbolts makes money, Sean Penn Executive Produced Thriller 'Words of War' s releasing at the same weekend I think...for now, notwithstanding new Hollywood deleays
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I'm wondering if there's some shenanigans with those Brave New World numbers.
Isn't it the lowest critically rated MCU movie on RT by critics? It got a B- Cinemascore, which for sure is the lowest MCU Cinemascore.
Who's going to see this where it's grossing over $6.5 Million on a Tuesday in the middle of winter? That's about the number I expected to see it make on Friday night.
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Who's going to see this where it's grossing over $6.5 Million on a Tuesday in the middle of winter? That's about the number I expected to see it make on Friday night.
Well... it was cheap seat Tuesday.
Wednesday's numbers were more along the lines of what I expected to see, although still higher than I thought they would be by now at $3,419,116
For comparison's sake, the last Captain America movie was Civil War back in 2016.
It grossed $13,761,120 on the first Cheap Seat Tuesday and $8,976,371 on its first Wednesday.
With inflation, that would be $18.214 Million and $11.881 Million, or around $10 to $11 Million more than Brave New World.
It did not see a day below $3.5 Million until day 18, vs. Brave New World's Day 6.
Civil War saw a staggering 74% drop from the first Friday to the second, although it wasn't as bad as that when you remove the Thursday night preview numbers. Even with that drop it still grossed over $19 Million on the 2nd Friday. If we're already under $3.5 Million I don't see it getting much more than $10 to $12 Million on Friday night.
If the steam has already run out, it could be worse than that. I don't see it being much better though.
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Sony Pictures Classics' Becoming Led Zeppelin grossed $2.75M this week (from 1,039 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $6.42M
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1893046796340928524
How Captain America: Brave New World’s Box Office Compares To MCU Flops
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/02/17/how-captain-america-
brave-new-worlds-box-office-compares-to-mcu-flops/
however if it makes 10 bucks profit Marvel / Disney will class it was a 'win'?
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
How Captain America: Brave New World’s Box Office Compares To MCU Flops
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/02/17/how-captain-america-
brave-new-worlds-box-office-compares-to-mcu-flops/
however if it makes 10 bucks profit Marvel / Disney will class it was a 'win'?
Even at Forbes, they're so fucking disingenuous...
Quote:
So, it’s right in that range, and nearly twice as good as the lowest-performing MCU movie ever, The Marvels, which went on to only earn $206 million worldwide. But how does it compare to say, other Captain America movies?
Captain America: The First Avenger - $65 million opening weekend, earned $370 million total
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $95 million opening, earned $714 million total
Captain America: Civil War - $179 million opening weekend, earned $1.1 billion total
So, it’s number three out of four there for openings.
Nah bitch. You work for Forbes for fuck's sake and you don't know what inflation is?
I already broke those numbers down here, unpaid. It must be nice to be able to write whatever you want and never be fact checked while collecting that bi-weekly severe over-payment for your "services". Dust up that resume. AI will be doing your job soon, and a much better job at that.
Quote:
If its trajectory continues compared to these other Captain America movies, it could end up earning perhaps $600+ million,
It didn't. It won't gross $450 Million.
Quote:
though that assumes word-of-mouth is good enough to carry it further from here
Don't assume, or you make an ass out of Ume.
Quote:
which may not be the case judging by its Cinemascore.
So you did notice the lowest MCU Cinemascore of all time too, although you fail to actually mention that in your article, didn't you?
Quote:
That level of performance, however, would proably be considered at least some level of a success compared to recent Marvel underperformers (then we have Deadpool and Wolverine’s $1.3 billion, of course).
Yeah. $600+ Million would have been considered a success when you needed $450 Million to break even.
Congratulations. That's how math works.
Fortunately for the world, we don't even get to argue about whether or not this was a massive failure now. It clearly is after the 2nd weekend drop and nobody is going to be able to defend it.
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perhaps they soon can have profits?
Box Office: Bong Joon Ho and Robert Pattinson’s ‘Mickey 17’ Targets $20 Million Domestic Debut; Internationally, $20 million to $25 million from 66 Territories for A Global Start of $40 to $45 million
https://variety.com/2025/film/box-office/mickey-17-box-office-bong-joo
n-ho-robert-pattinson-opening-weekend-projection-1236327328/
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The 2025 Box Office is so pathetic that even Bruce got bored.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/worldwide/all-movies/cu
mulative/released-in-2025
He hasn't updated the top 100 movies for 2025 page in weeks.
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Wow the numbers for 2025 are truly shocking and so many foreign films
box office numbers discussed
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32982-captain-america-brave-n
ew-world/page/3/#comments
Estimated totals through Sunday for Captain America: Brave New World by international market include:
U.K. - $19.8M
China - $14.2M
Mexico - $13.1M
France - $11.5M
S. Korea - $10.7M
Brazil - $7.5M
Germany - $7.1M
Australia - $7.0M
Japan - $6.7M
Italy - $5.8M
Spain - $5.5M
https://twitter.com/BORReport/status/1896233588548592046?ref_src=twsrc
%5Etfw
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Yeah. Gotta love articles calling "Brave New World" a "Three-Peat" for winning 3 weekends in a row.
Nobody mentions that the game they were playing was Solitaire.
Nor do they mention that the price to get in the game was $450 Million and the maximum payout for winning is only $400 Million.
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its not completely over for Hollyweird they seem to be still scouting and getting foriegn directors who might make money for them
Mickey 17 is expected to win in Australia
but there is a danger SKorea itself could push Hollyweirdos out of the international market if they have continued success at home and have no desire to be part of the weird tinseltown Commiefornia culture
Hollywood doesnt lure and seduce overseas talent like it used to, maybe people are seeing past the illusion
‘Train To Busan’ Director Yeon Sang-ho Unveils Cast For New Zombie Film ‘Gunche’
https://deadline.com/2025/03/train-to-busan-director-yeon-sang-ho-unve
ils-cast-zombie-film-gunche-1236313724/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
but there is a danger SKorea itself could push Hollyweirdos out of the international market if they have continued success at home and have no desire to be part of the weird tinseltown Commiefornia culture
I dunno. Today I'm hearing from a couple of people that Mickey 17 is a anti-Trump rant. I can't watch the videos to see why they say this, because I don't want spoilers to the movie.
I don't know if I believe them though because I feel like at this point some people are going to see everything that comes out as either pro-Trump or anti-Trump no matter what their politics are.
I was just telling my old man that we probably wanted to watch that one. We'd just watched Snowpiercer a while back (under the assumption that it was a sequel to Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory), and we enjoyed it. Then I get an email titled "Too bad" this morning from him with a scathing review.
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Mickey 17 could have staying power but not sure if it can make money
but the Hollyweirdo 'message' and general political divide will kill movie experiences
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Mickey 17 could have staying power but not sure if it can make money
but the Hollyweirdo 'message' and general political divide will kill movie experiences
I could have gotten past media messaging and at least given this one a shot, but then I found out Mark Ruffolo is in it. That's a deal breaker.
There's some actors out there I can still suspend disbelief and see whoever they're playing, but not Mark. He's a shitty actor.
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inide maybe
and the sequels will be the Birds, Cats and Goldfish
'Good Boy' Review: Horror Movie Told from the Dog's Point of View and One of the Best of the Year So Far
https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/good-boy-movie-horror-movie
-review-dog-pov-1235102488/
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Good post.
I don't think I ever would have even known about this one if you didn't post it.
One of my least favorite genre's, but I'm always up for watching something new.
I didn't do more than skim the article because I don't want to ruin the movie, but it appears that they didn't do a "Look Who's Talking Now" thing here and have John Travolta narrating the dog. I would not be interested in this movie if you hear the dog's thoughts in English.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Wow the Hollyweirdos they just gave it all the kiss of death
2025 will be even worse than expected?
‘Mickey 17’ Digital Release
https://www.whentostream.com/news/mickey-17-digital-streaming-release-
date-revealed
18 Days After Theatrical Debut
another flop Novocaine...maybe not it has a reported Budget of $18 million...so does that qualify in the 'indie' thread where the first post was to cap it at $15-16 Million?
‘Novocaine’ With $8M+ Leads Lowest-Grossing Weekend Of 2025 To Date
https://deadline.com/2025/03/box-office-novocaine-1236326472/
if you can't turn profit anymore on a 18 Million Dollar movie that some people watch...it means Hollywood is over
now if only ‘Novocaine’ got a fraction of Captain America Brave New World 2025 numbers, it could have been a huge hit...
...maybe people have movie fatigue again
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Iron-Ma
n-3/Novocaine-(2025)/Captain-America-Brave-New-World-(2025)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
another flop Novocaine...maybe not it has a reported Budget of $18 million...so does that qualify in the 'indie' thread where the first post was to cap it at $15-16 Million?
We've been through 4 years of Bidenflation. I'll allow it.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Paramount's Novocaine grossed $1.19M on Tuesday (from 3,365 locations). Total domestic gross stands at $10.74M
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1902428692774842712
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a dual citizen Mayor pushes his religious sandbox politics
the USA isn't an Israeli Police State yet and its not the jihad Middle East so...
Streisand effect idiots
ban something and create hype making it all more popular
Miami Beach Mayor Drops Plan to Evict O Cinema After ‘No Other Land’ Controversy
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/miami-beach-mayor-drops-plan-evict-
o-cinema-no-other-land-1236342491/
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
a dual citizen Mayor pushes his religious sandbox politics
the USA isn't an Israeli Police State yet and its not the jihad Middle East so...
Streisand effect idiots
ban something and create hype making it all more popular
Miami Beach Mayor Drops Plan to Evict O Cinema After ‘No Other Land’ Controversy
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/miami-beach-mayor-drops-plan-evict-
o-cinema-no-other-land-1236342491/
They don't get to do whatever they want when the taxpayers are paying for it to exist.
This theater will be shut down if it doesn't cease showing nothing but Anti-American propaganda.
It could never exist on its own merits. It would go out of business by the end of the month if it wasn't taxpayer funded.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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the political culture of the sandbox infecting USA life and Art and Freedoms?
Palestinian director of Oscar-winner No Other Land attacked by Israeli settlers and detained
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/hamdan-bal
lal-no-other-land-israel-palestine-yuval-abraham-b2720917.html
this time 'Greatest Ally' and a dumbass Mayor might have pulled the wrong move with that censorship crap
meanwhile the entertaining world moves on
The internets and entertaining became a balkanized 'folk' thing
its over, young people choose their own path of entertainment after being spoon fed garbage for years from a small bunch of trashy entertainment companies
In Warning Sign for Hollywood, Younger Consumers Are Choosing Creator Content Over Premium TV and Movies
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/deloitte-gen-
z-creator-content-streaming-price-1236171227/
anyways it looks like I was 'wrong' its even worse than I predict
I thought maybe just maybe by the end of March Hollyweird should have one hit where it takes in the Millions
but it has NOTHING
meanwhile on the international markets Spanish, Japanese, SKorean and even Russian remakes after knocking it back
..its over they can give their crap awards to dumb transexual political DEI movies nobody watches at the Oscars
Hollyweird is finally finished
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Will it drop below 50% ...this year they are really getting their ass kicked
Hollyweird done? LA is ash
maybe its time to back the indie guys again, even something silly FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S let independent films make you money
and stop trashing them as Alt-Right or 'Deplorables'
The global market share of American films has declined from 85% to 69% over the past 10 years.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOGN1403Z0U5A310C2000000/
if you chop that 69% in half we get
34.5% ...which seems about right for this disastrous year for Hollyweird...maybe it can get even worse
its getting beat by Japan Anime, China movies, Spanish movies, Russian remakes and South Korea film on the international stage
Bollywood films will probably knock a few Hollyweirdo films down
there might be two other stories here, HongKong film actually holding steady with a slight rise and France crashing – 4.5% down to France – 1.5% the French film industry seems over.
DEI transsexual Hollywood diversity stuff is not selling, the world rejects it, most of the world is somewhat religious or political 'Conservative' and Japan and (mainly) China rejecting new 'agenda' US films to such a large degree
Hollyweird budgets are out of control, the Japanese show you can make a blockbsuter on the cheap
Godzilla minus one made 11.5 times it's production budget
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so its April, worse than I predicted and no big hits
International Disruptors: Toei President & CEO Fumio Yoshimura Unpacks Japanese Studio’s $2BN Global Expansion Strategy
https://deadline.com/2025/04/toei-co-fumio-yoshimura-global-expansion-
strategy-1236355792/
a shit Hollyweird film nobody watched
David Fincher to Direct 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood' Netflix Sequel
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/david-fincher-direct-once-upon-a-ti
me-in-hollywood-sequel-1236354356/
blame Trump?
Global film and TV industry braces for expansion of Trump trade war
https://www.screendaily.com/news/global-film-and-tv-industry-braces-fo
r-expansion-of-trump-trade-war/5203589.article
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I'm really interested to see this Minecraft movie play out.
I have absolutely zero expectations or predictions for it. I don't really know if the media does either since I've seen projections from $600 Million to over $1 Billion worldwide.
I'm really not so sure of that though...
What is the underlying "story" of Minecraft? I never played it, but it's been big enough for long enough for me to have heard about it over the years.
I think it's really nothing more than a few highly-addictive yet simple gameplay loops, and if there is any real story associated with it, it's just a bare-bones deal. People weren't playing this game for a decade because of the story. It was those addictive loops that brought a steady stream of low-dose dopamine hits that kept people coming back for more. I could tell that was the case just from watching a little bit of gameplay here or there and I stayed FAR away from it because even though it appealed mostly to kids I could easily see myself getting trapped in those gameplay loops like I've done before in games like Torchlight II, where I played several hundred hours beyond finishing the "story" and just literally KILLING time by upgrading things that didn't need to be upgraded anymore and trying to 100% a game that would have taken me another 400 hours to complete if I didn't somehow break free of the loop and the Sunk Cost Fallacy that I had to overcome to leave after wasting all that time.
But kind of like the Borderlands movie, I think this one is just coming out way too late. I'm pretty sure a lot of the kids that grew up playing Minecraft have moved on to bigger and better games by now. More mature content with better graphics and an edgy backdrop, but full of new-and-improved addictive gameplay loops.
I'd say that most of the people who played Minecraft enough to want to see this movie are also not old enough yet to really have any kids old enough to want to see this in the theater yet, so it's also coming out too early at the same time. They won't be getting any Nostalgia bump from adults out of it.
I'd guess that anybody saying this movie is going to make a Billion or more is just nuts.
Forbes: ‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/04/03/minecraft-movie-revi
ews-are-in-and-a-billion-dollar-haul-is-nigh/
And I'm wondering if it can actually make the low-end predictions of $600 Million that I'm seeing too.
Everybody in the world knows who the Mario Bros. are, and that movie made $1.36 Billion a few years back. Who would you even know besides maybe a teenage or 20-something nephew who could name a single character in Minecraft. (Assuming that named characters are even a thing in this game).
There's no way that it's going to do Borderlands levels of bad. Not even close to that.
But can it justify the $150 Million budget?
$375 Million to break even.
It's far less than the lowest worldwide predictions I've seen out there, so unless everybody has just lost the ability to predict which way the wind is blowing on everything in 2025 entirely, I think it should at least make $375 Million without any problems.
Variety is predicting $65 Million opener here and $135-$150 worldwide opening.
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/a-minecraft-movie-box-office-openin
g-weekend-projection-1236354645/
That is nowhere NEAR the territory you need to get $1 Billion.
Dune 2 made $182.5 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $714 Million worldwide.
Super Mario Bros. made $375 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $1.359 Billion.
Ya see... There's patterns here you can figure out pretty easily when looking at something long enough...
Dune 2 made roughly half of what SMB made on opening weekend, and it finished off roughly with half of the worldwide box office that SMB got.
Now that isn't always going to be the
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So its April and your typical Hollyweird action 'block buster' big studio film can barely move past 50 Million ...Hollywood is dead?
Budgets can be as high as 250 Million, sometimes they even spend billion on combined production projects, big overseas companies like Sony might also suffer
One of Them Days $50 million, Paddington in Peru $45 million,
Death of a Unicorn $5 million!
Mickey 17 Warner Bros $44 million, The Monkey $39 million, Den of Thieves 2 Pantera Lionsgate $36 million, Heart Eyes $30 million,
The Last Showgirl $4 million, Wolf Man Universal $20 million, Novocaine Paramount $19 million
compared to the other crap is the Disney/Marvel hit on Captain America that bad
however there is worse, last years comicbook flops...Snow White seems terrible
Overseas
Japan Box Office
Wknd 28-30 ( Spring Break )
https://x.com/Franspeech/status/1906349369227452572#m
1 #Doraemon44 $2.7M/$19.35M (+16%)
2 #Wicked $1.6M/$14.8M ( -10%)
3 #Mickey17 $800K
4 #SnowWhite $720K /$3.8M (42%)
5 #Yamada999_movie $600K
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Quote:Theater ticket sales are shrinking because of streaming.
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
So its April and your typical Hollyweird action 'block buster' big studio film can barely move past 50 Million ...Hollywood is dead?
Zoe Saldaña Shows Off ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ At Disney’s CinemaCon
By Anthony D'Alessandro, Nancy Tartaglione | April 3, 2025 4:11pm
https://deadline.com/2025/04/avatar-fire-and-ash-first-look-1236358731/
The box office year has been sluggish, but if one movie is going to bring the industry back alive it’s James Cameron‘s Avatar: Fire and Ash on December 19.
In a taped message before Zoe Saldaña took the stage at the Las Vegas confab, Cameron said “I’m in New Zealand finishing up Avatar: Fire and Ash. I think we can agree that’s a good use of my time since this sucker’s coming at us like a freight train.”
“I hope this film can provide a shot in the arm of theater owners because we are still struggling with the one-two punch of the pandemic and streaming.”
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I'm really interested to see this Minecraft movie play out.
I have absolutely zero expectations or predictions for it. I don't really know if the media does either since I've seen projections from $600 Million to over $1 Billion worldwide.
I'm really not so sure of that though...
What is the underlying "story" of Minecraft? I never played it, but it's been big enough for long enough for me to have heard about it over the years.
I think it's really nothing more than a few highly-addictive yet simple gameplay loops, and if there is any real story associated with it, it's just a bare-bones deal. People weren't playing this game for a decade because of the story. It was those addictive loops that brought a steady stream of low-dose dopamine hits that kept people coming back for more. I could tell that was the case just from watching a little bit of gameplay here or there and I stayed FAR away from it because even though it appealed mostly to kids I could easily see myself getting trapped in those gameplay loops like I've done before in games like Torchlight II, where I played several hundred hours beyond finishing the "story" and just literally KILLING time by upgrading things that didn't need to be upgraded anymore and trying to 100% a game that would have taken me another 400 hours to complete if I didn't somehow break free of the loop and the Sunk Cost Fallacy that I had to overcome to leave after wasting all that time.
But kind of like the Borderlands movie, I think this one is just coming out way too late. I'm pretty sure a lot of the kids that grew up playing Minecraft have moved on to bigger and better games by now. More mature content with better graphics and an edgy backdrop, but full of new-and-improved addictive gameplay loops.
I'd say that most of the people who played Minecraft enough to want to see this movie are also not old enough yet to really have any kids old enough to want to see this in the theater yet, so it's also coming out too early at the same time. They won't be getting any Nostalgia bump from adults out of it.
I'd guess that anybody saying this movie is going to make a Billion or more is just nuts.
Forbes: ‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh
https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2025/04/03/minecraft-movie-revi
ews-are-in-and-a-billion-dollar-haul-is-nigh/
And I'm wondering if it can actually make the low-end predictions of $600 Million that I'm seeing too.
Everybody in the world knows who the Mario Bros. are, and that movie made $1.36 Billion a few years back. Who would you even know besides maybe a teenage or 20-something nephew who could name a single character in Minecraft. (Assuming that named characters are even a thing in this game).
There's no way that it's going to do Borderlands levels of bad. Not even close to that.
But can it justify the $150 Million budget?
$375 Million to break even.
It's far less than the lowest worldwide predictions I've seen out there, so unless everybody has just lost the ability to predict which way the wind is blowing on everything in 2025 entirely, I think it should at least make $375 Million without any problems.
Variety is predicting $65 Million opener here and $135-$150 worldwide opening.
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/a-minecraft-movie-box-office-openin
g-weekend-projection-1236354645/
That is nowhere NEAR the territory you need to get $1 Billion.
Dune 2 made $182.5 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $714 Million worldwide.
Super Mario Bros. made $375 million on opening weekend. That ended up making $1.359 Billion.
Ya see... There's patterns here you can figure out pretty easily when looking at something long enough...
Dune 2 made roughly half of what SMB made on opening weekend, and it finished off roughly with half of the worldwide box office that SMB gotNOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | PERMALINK | TOP | HOME
Rotten Tomatoes isn't any help in making a prediction here...
The societal shift that's taken place still has me wondering how perceptions and narratives morph into other things and I think we're all in transitory limbo on that front right now. Uncertainty everywhere means large scale changes in behavioral patterns, from the individual right on up to the world's largest corporation and governments.
And that includes movies and movie reviews, somewhere in between.
So there currently is no "Top Critics" differentiation on Minecraft, but out of 103 "All Critics" reviews, it comes in at only 48%. And this number means next to nothing to me right now because I don't think the usual assumptions about where the critics are coming from should necessarily be applied in these current reviews.
The interesting thing to me is the difference between the "All Audience" and "Verified Audience" scores.
There is none.
83% from 500+ verified audience, and 80% from 2,500+ all audience.
I don't see that very often.
What this suggests to me is that there is an extremely high likelihood that virtually all of these audience reviews are genuine and there hasn't been any review bombing or artificial propping up going on here.
My new Rotten Tomatoes review assumptions are that the more politically charged and polarizing the movie, the larger the gap in the two audience scores would be. I haven't studied it, but without investigating I would assume that the more left-leaning the movie is the higher the Verified Audience score is, and the more sane the movie is, the lower the Verified audience score is. And vice versa.
Not an amazing score in the low 80s, but you could do a lot worse than that.
I'm interested to see what it makes this weekend.
I haven't heard nothing bad about this. And Jack Black has taken quite a few lumps in real life and in the box office and seems to be keeping his political opinions to himself these days, so I'm not going to root for it to fail on his account. I've been a fan of his since before he was on Mr. Show with Bob and Dave. One of the rare one-off X-Files episodes I can still recall was starring Black, and if memory serves he was in a cool Bruce Willis movie called The Jackal too. If it's the movie I'm thinking of, he gets one of his arms blown off while holding a target. A darkly funny scene, whatever summer blockbuster movie I saw more than half a lifetime ago I'm drawing out that memory from.
....
Wait. No. CIGARETTES!
Yeah. Jack Black holding up a pack of cigarettes like somebody putting an apple on their head for an archer. Only this gun was the BFG from DOOM and I think Jack lost his arm up to the elbow.
I hope for a turnaround for you Jack. I ain't mad at'cha.
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"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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they say Minecraft does good but who knows, you have the whole staying power thing and overseas and it will get more competitive as the longer Summer days approach...but maybe this one makes them money. I thought Hollyweird would have at least one big money movie, a box office hit by March but I was wrong.
the economy also starts to suck, so there's that. Idiotic politics entertaining on the tv and World economic uncertainty also.
the new SnowWhite is dead, so it doesnt have many challengers
Mincraft seems to have a run unchallenged, next to take it on in the USA and Overseas The King of Kings 2025, The Legend of Ochi, The Wedding Banquet 2025 film, The Accountant 2, Havoc 2025 film...a bunch of other action or horror that probably should be out in Halloween or the darker winter months if they want to make cash... Thunderbolts will be out the very end of April or start of May
The Legend of Ochi makes money that was an easy prediction, it had a Super-Low budget of only $10 million bucks
compared with ridiculous Hollyweirdo money laundering budgets of 250+ Million
Thunderbolts*
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30435-thunderbolts-may-2-2025
-mcu/page/57/#comments
the hype continues
Superman Overseas?
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/32897-superman-july-2025/
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Disney’s Snow White flopped terribly: And here’s exactly why
https://thetab.com/2025/03/27/umm-disneys-snow-white-flopped-terribly-
and-heres-exactly-why
8 Reasons Why Rachel Zegler’s ‘Snow White’ Bombed at the Box Office
https://fandomwire.com/8-reasons-why-rachel-zeglers-snow-white-bombed-
at-the-box-office/
Quote:
From remake fatigue and controversies to massive budget issues and poor marketing
Joe Rogan reveals REAL reason Snow White flopped at the box office as he calls for shock DOGE investigation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14565877/joe-rogan-snow-white
-flop-rachel-zegler.html
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
Joe Rogan reveals REAL reason Snow White flopped at the box office as he calls for shock DOGE investigation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14565877/joe-rogan-snow-white
-flop-rachel-zegler.html
Quote:
Joe Rogan suggested DOGE should investigate the makers of box office flop Snow White for managing to blow a $250million budget on a movie that looked terrible instead of blaming star Rachel Zegler.
I agree with the first half of that. I've even said a couple times already that Hollywood needs to be DOGEd.
It's time to cap actor pay. It's also time to cap athlete pay. No more million+ $ contracts for anyone.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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$58 Million on Friday. That's by far the highest number we've seen all year, and more money than most movies so far this year have made their entire run. Even if you subtract Preview Thursday it's still over $47 Million.
B+ Cinemascore. That leads me to believe it's not a musical like Joker 2 was even if it does have a few songs in it.
This one will make money.
We might not really know how much until we see the 2nd weekend drop.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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film - 'A Minecraft Movie 2025' its running out of the gates stronger than new Captain America Brave New World...which might have flopped
Does Minecraft need a strong overseas and staying power for good profit?
I'll assume you are talking about Minecraft for anyone dropping in on this thread later
Mexico ($1.9M), Germany ($1.7M), Australia $1.1M maybe in Aussie cinema A$1.729M (90K admits)
157K admissions in France
'MinecraftLeFilm largement en tête des démarrages et du box-office du 02/04 avec un total 1er Jour France de 157.152 entrées sur 670 copies. C’est le meilleur démarrage de 2025'
https://x.com/boxofficefr/status/1907748530640269600
Warner Bros. & Legendary's A Minecraft Movie has grossed an estimated $52.7M internationally through Friday. Estimated global total through Friday stands at $110.7M.
https://x.com/BORReport/status/1908538614910509074
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Yeah. I'm still on minecraft.
I've been giving the regular YouTubers shit about their low reviews and flop predictions on this one. This will be another time I was right and all the people who have made a living the last 5+ years with anti-woke channels have been wrong. If Hollywood starts doing right again, as I've said before, half of those channels won't exist within a year.
What I suspect happened here is that after almost a year with nothing to really talk about and view counters dropping, they got a huge influx of cash and a burst of adrenaline when Blacktain Anti-America and Snow Brown flopped back-to-back and they all got high off their own product. But their take on Minecraft is completely wrong, and that's probably scary to some of them. The two movies they were looking forward to come out to boost their channels are out and the noise has died down. What do they have to look forward to rally everyone against after those? I don't know of anything?
And now they're all backpedaling and just calling the audience idiots for going out to see "slop". Well, whether or not Minecraft is "slop", the audience always went out to see "slop". Most movies are pretty mid. But we've had a decade worth of mid movies and mid TV shows written, directed and produced by DEI cretins who filled in the lack of interesting characters and plot with race swaps and political agendas.
Take that shit out of the movies, and people will go see them again. A copy of Minecraft had leaked before release, and yet this will be by far the highest grossing movie so far this year worldwide. So just like they came out for Five Nights At Freddy's despite it being released the same day for viewing at home on Peacock, they came out for this even though the movie was already pirated in HD.
Warner made a movie for their target demographic and they should be very happy with the results. And with the very young kids absolutley loving this thing, they've got the ability now not only to turn this IP into a franchise of 2 or 3 more movies if they play their cards right, but they likely boosted the amount of young people interested in playing again and they could keep that game going for another 5 or 10 years if they make movies right in between.
Stop trying to make movies for Everyone. Nobody wants to see a movie that was made for Everyone.
You have built in audiences. Cater to them and you'll do great.
This guy gets it...
Oh... $157 Million now predicted for the US opening. Probably EASILY breaks $300 Million worldwide, which makes this a certified hit by making more than double the production budget on opening weekend. I already heard word that's it's doing crazy business in China.
Even without seeing the international numbers, I'd say my top-end prediction of $650 is looking pretty good right now. Could make even more than this if the interest stays high and it gets a proper run in theaters before getting yanked. And this could be the first time in a long while that the Chinese box office plays a factor in the end result.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Stop trying to make movies for Everyone. Nobody wants to see a movie that was made for Everyone.
You have built in audiences. Cater to them and you'll do great.
Bruce concurs...
https://www.the-numbers.com/news/259050830-Weekend-projections-Minecra
ft-blasts-into-theaters-with-157-million-weekend
Quote:
Minecraft’s opening almost literally broke our model. On Friday, I confidently stated that “The $146 million earned by The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in 2023 is surely out of reach”. That was because it would need a massive 13.9 times multiplier from its previews to its final weekend box office, something not achieved by any comparable film. In the event, Warner Bros. is predicting a multiplier of 14.9. That’s driven by $60 million in ticket sales on Saturday, which is the 15th-best Saturday ever, and the best Saturday in history for the studio. With that kind of momentum, the film could still top the weekend projection of $157 million, which relies on $39 million in sales on Sunday. Other industry predictions I’ve seen this morning are settled around $155 million or so, but there’s still an upside possibility of $160 million.
Internationally, the film is also doing well, with $144 million projected for the weekend by Warner Bros.. That’s led by $19.9 million in the United Kingdom, $14.5 million in China, $11.2 million from Mexico, and $10.6 million in Germany.
In spite of the uncertainty around the broader economy going into the weekend, movie fans have packed theaters, and once again shown that success in this business is driven by one thing only: giving customers what they want.
Amen.
--------------------------------------------------
"I don't find this stuff amusing anymore." ~Paul Simon
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very like the Incredibles part 2 Run in box office
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Incredi
bles-2/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-Mutant-Mayhem-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
other franvhise like Teenage Mutant Turtles didnt do so good in the past
the video game hype thing is here now
it will probably be the next 'thing' to make into movie material, will they ever give tha t gaming to movie stuff awards for Best Adapted Screenplay?
I think the bubble started to burst with Avengers, by the time Avengers Endgame came along the bubble had burst but many did not know it yet, Covid was a disaster a lot of gamer, comic book or 'graphic novel' stuff was gone maybe over-saturation of the superhero thing but then some comicbook and video game bounced back, the horror thing can do ok
New Mutants seemed to mark the death of the Xmen comic brand for a while but there have been some 'hits'
Incredibles 2 (2018) vs. A Minecraft Movie (2025) vs. The New Mutants (2020)
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Incredi
bles-2/Minecraft-Movie-A-(2025)/New-Mutants-The-(2020)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
whatever they did they seem to have done it correct
Minecraft, storming the box office despite lukewarm reviews
Warner Bros Pictures is happy again, Disney/Marvel struggles
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Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Oh... $157 Million now predicted for the US opening. Probably EASILY breaks $300 Million worldwide, which makes this a certified hit by making more than double the production budget on opening weekend. I already heard word that's it's doing crazy business in China.
Even without seeing the international numbers, I'd say my top-end prediction of $650 is looking pretty good right now. Could make even more than this if the interest stays high and it gets a proper run in theaters before getting yanked. And this could be the first time in a long while that the Chinese box office plays a factor in the end result.
On the front page of the-numbers, the studio projections in the US have been raised to 163 Million, but that's not yet reflected in the box office page where it shows 157 Million still.
Looks as though their international projection is $150 Million because they've got $307 Million for opening weekend now. That will be $313 Million if the $6 Million projection was correct, and it could be even higher if international audiences came out for more than a flat $150 Million.
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Bruce is now showing $313.7 Million, but it's all still projections.
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$100 Million Budget for a horror
Sinners the budget way too high?
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
$100 Million Budget for a horror
Sinners the budget way too high?
I don't think it looks good, just based on the number and the genre. Unless it's a major breakout success, this movie really can't make much money of that even if it doesn't lose money.
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I don't remember which thread I posted the reply because you're talking about Minecraft in 4 different threads and you necropost everything so we can't find anything.
In one of them I said it was going to do very well, but if it beat Super Mario Bros that would be insanity. (After it did beat SMB on opening weekend when you take SMB's 5-day weekend and only calculate for 3-day).
Super Mario's first Monday: $20,110,945
Minecraft's first Monday: $10,000,000
April 7th is recognized as both "National Beer Day" and "National No Housework Day", I guess. I'm hopeful that National Beer Day didn't play a role in this, but maybe with all those people not doing housework for the holiday they went to see Minecraft instead.
Like I said. It will do well, but I hope nobody at Warner Bros'. was expecting a $1.5 Billion surprise out of this one.
At least until weekend 2 numbers coming out, I'm still going with $650 worldwide max. If the numbers drop 50% or more everywhere, I'll already be right. If they drop less than that, this might be interesting.
Either way, it's still making at least a few hundred million for WB.
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‘Ignorant’: China slams US Vice-President J.D. Vance for ‘peasants’ slur
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3305715/ignorant-dis
respectful-china-slams-vance-peasants-slur-tariff-war-intensifies?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
this was unexpected, from one retarded shitshow to another
they now sound like British Imperialists trying to shout down at little Yellow-Man
one positive thing I can say about the Zionist Don is he has not crashed everything like Joe and Kamala Harris done...yet
and give Vance the idiot award for Diplamcy
we are back in the Bill O'Reilly mega RINO retard smug political commentator years
China's box office is the key market for making a Hollywood film successful. And now China is considering a ban on American films to spare their citizens from terrible DEI tranny movies
https://www.thegamer.com/china-threatens-ban-hollywood-films-trump-tar
iffs-market/
Canada is already on a boycott of US brands
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I said it was going to do very well, but if it beat Super Mario Bros that would be insanity. (After it did beat SMB on opening weekend when you take SMB's 5-day weekend and only calculate for 3-day).
Super Mario's first Monday: $20,110,945
Minecraft's first Monday: $10,000,000
Interesting numbers
Other previous discussion? There is a general Hollywood is fake thread which talks about failures and why Hollywood strange odd weird political 'culture' is now insulting its own US audience...these are more focused on rants against the industry with less talk about box office success
In the tv show section of threads, away from 'cinema' there is a general movies from 'Video Game' property which Minecraft discussion is probably a part of
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Quote:
Originally posted by JAYNEZTOWN:
‘Ignorant’: China slams US Vice-President J.D. Vance for ‘peasants’ slur
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3305715/ignorant-dis
respectful-china-slams-vance-peasants-slur-tariff-war-intensifies?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
this was unexpected, from one retarded shitshow to another
they now sound like British Imperialists trying to shout down at little Yellow-Man
one positive thing I can say about the Zionist Don is he has not crashed everything like Joe and Kamala Harris done...yet
and give Vance the idiot award for Diplamcy
we are back in the Bill O'Reilly mega RINO retard smug political commentator years
China's box office is the key market for making a Hollywood film successful. And now China is considering a ban on American films to spare their citizens from terrible DEI tranny movies
https://www.thegamer.com/china-threatens-ban-hollywood-films-trump-tar
iffs-market/
Canada is already on a boycott of US brandsQuote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
I said it was going to do very well, but if it beat Super Mario Bros that would be insanity. (After it did beat SMB on opening weekend when you take SMB's 5-day weekend and only calculate for 3-day).
Super Mario's first Monday: $20,110,945
Minecraft's first Monday: $10,000,000
Interesting numbers
Other previous discussion? There is a general Hollywood is fake thread which talks about failures and why Hollywood strange odd weird political 'culture' is now insulting its own US audience...these are more focused on rants against the industry with less talk about box office success
In the tv show section of threads, away from 'cinema' there is a general movies from 'Video Game' property which Minecraft discussion is probably a part of
Yeah... I don't even remember which thread it was man. I searched about 6 pages in here and in the RWED before writing that and I couldn't find it.
For 2025, $10,000 is a great Monday number, but as you can see it's already half of what SMB got on the same day. And they were released on the same weekend 2 years apart, so it's not as if there's any difference with kids being out of school, or one getting a holiday weekend when the other didn't.
Plus, nobody is taking into account the fact that SMB was released on a Wednesday on a non-holiday weekend and put up crazy Wednesday and Thursday numbers of $31,702,735 and $26,566,130 before Friday even rolled around. I'm not saying that SMB would have made that $58 Million extra over the weekend if it was released like normal, but that did mean that Friday was not the Opening Night event that your typical movie like Minecraft had. I think had they both saw 3-day weekends, Minecraft would have lost to SMB pretty easily.
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Wait a minute...
Jack Black's A Minecraft Movie Beats His Super Mario Bros. Movie to Set New Box Office Record
https://people.com/jack-black-minecraft-movie-beats-super-mario-bros-b
ox-office-opening-11710286
This article and any article saying anything similar is an outright lie. This never happened. This is simply more media gaslighting and numbers manipulation.
These articles all claim that Minecraft made $157 Million and the Super Mario Bros Movie only made $146 Million on opening weekend.
But here's the lie...
Super Mario Bros. Movie's 3-Day haul: $146,361,865. This is the numbers for Friday, Saturday and Sunday (April 7-9th, 2023). This number does NOT include what it got on Thursday, because SMB was officially released on Wednesday night and did not have what would generally be considered a Thursday Preview night, which is always added into Friday's total.
Why is this a problem?
Because while SMB doesn't have the $26,566,130 that it grossed on April 6th, 2020, what would have been a typical Thursday Night Preview, Minecraft gets to add its own $10,550,000 Preview Thursday night as we usually do for a 4-day total and SMB gets screwed here.
The real results can be looked at one of two ways here...
1. Remove the $10,550,000 preview thursday number for Minecraft and give a straight 3-day total for each movie.
That leaves us with $152,203,003 opening for Minecraft vs. $146,361,865 for SMB. (The article is outdated and Minecraft made actually made $162 Million+, and not $157 Million).
In that instance, Minecraft still wins by almost $6 Million, but not by $16 Million.
2. Add back the Thursday for Super Mario Bros., which I think is the correct solution, since nearly all movies in the last few years not released on a holiday weekend other than Super Mario Bros and Top Gun II with their early Wednesday releases have had preview Thursday numbers added.
If you add the $26,566,130 SMB made on Thursday, now you've got $162,753,003 for Minecraft with the Thursday night added back in, but you have $172,927,995 for Super Mario Bros.
The Super Mario Bros. movie generated $10 Million more in the same time frame that the Minecraft movie counts get.
But wait... There's more...
We haven't talked about inflation yet...
Although it was only 2 years of inflation, the $172,927,995 that Super Mario Bros made Thursday-Sunday on opening weekend is worth $181,089,098.53 in 2025, which means it actually beat Minecraft by nearly $20 Million when both movies have Thursday included and inflation is calculated in.
Even if you remove Preview Thursday from both movies, Minecraft still loses by just over $1 Million once inflation is calculated in since the $146,361,865 that SMB made in 3 days is actually worth $153,269,215.85 in 2025.
Any way you look at it unless your intent is to be disingenuous, Super Mario Bros. did NOT lose to Minecraft last weekend.
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And because of those truths above finally ironed out, my prediction for $650 Million max becomes even more sound than it already was. Once we found out that Minecraft did not in fact beat Super Mario Bros on opening weekend and then we just discovered today that Minecraft's first Monday was just less than half of what SMB did on their first Monday. (A comparison with no inflation calculated in. Just the straight numbers from each day).
I've said that I won't have a real solid prediction on this one until after we know what the 2nd weekend drop is, but knowing all that I know right now I will make a firm statement that Minecraft will not breach $1 Billion worldwide, like many analysts are now predicting, no matter how well it does.
The one benefit it does have over SMB is that the numbers that it makes today have no inflation adjustment, it's got just short of a 5% edge on every dollar it makes compared to what SMB had to make to reach nearly $1.4 Billion. In other words, the US dollar buys just under 5% less than it did 2 years ago.
That's not going to be enough to change anything outside of any close races it has in its future, but it is enough that it shouldn't be discounted. For every $1 Million that Super Mario made, Minecraft would need to make $1,047,194 to stay even if we were including inflation every step of the way. But that's not how Hollywood or the media report anything, so Minecraft does have that near 5% edge here, 2 years later.
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Early indicators that despite the "unexpected" success of Minecraft, it's not going to be doing anything close to Super Mario Bros by the end.
https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Minecraft-Movie-
A-(2025)/Super-Mario-Bros-Movie-The-(2022)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
First Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday numbers for both movies...
Super Mario: $20,110,945 / $15,459,585 / $10,757,435
Minecraft: $9,927,119 / $12,763,670 / $7,758,325
Minecraft's number isn't done rising by a long shot, but it will lose momentem and drop off to a flat line quite a bit before SMB did.
At least for now, $650 Million worldwide still sounds correct to me.
EDITED TO ADD: It should also be noted that Super Mario had a 156 day run in the theaters. Though I don't expect WB to do something stupid like put this on streaming after only 30 or 45 days while it was still making a good buck for them in the theaters, I don't expect Minecraft to be in the theaters more than 90 days max.
That's really just a side-note though, since in the last 60 or so days Mario only grossed around $2 Million domestically. It was probably done more as a courtesy to fans who wanted to see it for the 8th time than anything else, and just speaks to how bad the box office was in 2023 that there wasn't anything else showing that would have been a more lucrative movie to show.
I'm sure if mega-plex cinemas didn't exist, SMB wouldn't have been playing on the 16th screen tucked all the way in the back and wouldn't have gotten more than 90 days anywhere.
I won't pretend to know the deep ins and outs about the business or exactly how movie profits are handled, or the contracts for when a theater gets a higher or lower percentage of the tickets and when that triggers. We'll probably never know any of that. But looking at the SMB domestic run, I think even despite that movie's success one could argue that it didn't need to be in theaters more than 45 days. By Day 45 it had already grossed $541.8 Million. On day 156, it had $575 Million.
Everything post 45 days there is better than a lot of small movies would make in that time, so I can see the argument for it. It's just when I look at the last few weeks it was hanging on in the end I don't see any financial reason for the decision not to remove it much earlier. Hardly seems worth keeping the lights on and the theater heated at those grosses, let alone paying staff and all the other overhead. But I guess when you're AMC and you have 32 screens with half of them being empty 90% of the time, you just show anything you already got the deal made for even when nobody's there to watch it.
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Before squandering money on taking your children to the movies, watch A Minecraft Movie (2025) on your TV:
A.Minecraft.Movie.2025.1080p.TeleSync.Brighter.Version.X264.COLLECTiVE
Bittorrent Link: 0C11720BC7D348B531517C7B96B0D66325592B5F
https://x1337x.cc/torrent/6377783/A-Minecraft-Movie-2025-1080p-TeleSyn
c-Brighter-Version-X264-COLLECTiVE/ <-- the final / is necessary to avoid a 404 error.
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Before squandering money on taking your children to the movies, watch A Minecraft Movie (2025) on your TV:
HD copy of this movie was leaked before opening night and people still came out to see this one, and didn't see your Snow White.
Shut up, retard.
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James Cameron adjusting to a world where half of his theater audience stays home to watch his movies for free on TV:
James Cameron Says Blockbuster Movies Can Only Survive if We ‘Cut the Cost in Half’
Apr 9, 2025 2:22pm PT
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/james-cameron-blockbuster-movies-ai
-cut-costs-1236365081/
“And it’s not just hypothetical,” he continued. “If we want to continue to see the kinds of movies that I’ve always loved and that I like to make and that I will go to see — ‘Dune,’ ‘Dune: Part Two,’ or one of my films or big effects-heavy, CG-heavy films — we’ve got to figure out how to cut the cost of that in half. Now that’s not about laying off half the staff and at the effects company. That’s about doubling their speed to completion on a given shot, so your cadence is faster and your throughput cycle is faster, and artists get to move on and do other cool things and then other cool things, right? That’s my sort of vision for that.”
The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two
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Nothing I haven't said a thousand times before.
Looking forward to finally closing the book on Cameron after his upcoming huge failure.
... Because he will not heed his own advice and The Smurfs in 3D III will end up being the most expensive movie ever made.
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Minecraft hit $200 Million today.
Maybe we should start a list of how many Disney movies put out in the last 5 years that it ends up beating?
Obviously, it beat Snow White. The Marvels didn't crack $200 Million so if we're not including inflation (as the media never does), it's already beat The Marvels too.
Likely next up is Blacktain Anti-America.
Oh, wait... I forgot that Blacktain already outgrossed Indy 5 by quite a bit.
We've probably got another half dozen to count before Minecraft spanks Blactain too.
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Here's a good list of recent Disney failures and their final worldwide gross to start with...
Turning Red (2022): $12,271,142
The New Mutants (2020): $47,535,251
Mulan (2020): $69,973,540
Strange World (2022): $74,741,679
Haunted Mansion (2023): $117,449,790
A Wrinkle In Time (2018): $133,214,549
Onward (2020): $133,357,601
The Marvels (2023): $199,706,250
Jungle Cruise (2021): $210,469,803
Lightyear: (2022): $218,878,024
Wish (2023): $237,954,897
MINECRAFT (2025): $351,061,733
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023): $383,963,057
Solo (2018): $393,151,347
Blacktain Anti-America (2025): $413,120,592
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023): $476,073,180
...
Yup. Looks like we're coming for you next, Indy 5.
I'll have to update this with larger Disney flops shortly.
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April 8th:
Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Like I said. It will do well, but I hope nobody at Warner Bros'. was expecting a $1.5 Billion surprise out of this one.
At least until weekend 2 numbers coming out, I'm still going with $650 worldwide max. If the numbers drop 50% or more everywhere, I'll already be right. If they drop less than that, this might be interesting.
Either way, it's still making at least a few hundred million for WB.
Bruce predicts 63% drop on weekend 2, or $60 Million. Variety has $60 million on the low end, to $82 Million, or 52.23%.
To which they add...
Quote:
Even if A Minecraft Movie makes $60 million to $70 million in its second weekend in North American theaters, the film is surely on its way to profitability.
Yes. There is zero question about whether or not this film will be profitable. That was already determined on opening weekend. The only thing that would have stopped that from happening is if it saw an -80% drop on weekend two like some of Disney's larger flops have seen in the last 5 years, and that would have had to have been matched the last week for the international numbers too. And though only half as large as Super Mario Bros first Monday was, you could tell from the business that Minecraft did during the week that there was never going to be anything close to an -80% dip on weekend two. So people who actually know what's going on here (unlike chronic TDS suffering Variety "journalists") already knew this film would be profitable by the time we saw Friday's numbers from opening night.
Minecraft needs $425 Million to break even. The numbers don't show it yet, but it's already got that with the international box office from Monday through Friday that is still unreported on top of the $371 Million worldwide it sits at currently. The US box office alone should get it to around $415 Million this weekend, possibly hitting that magical break even number if it does the high end of what Variety is predicting.
Once the International numbers for Monday through Sunday come in, Minecraft should have made no less than $50 Million profit for WB by EOD Sunday, however, it's much more likely to be closer to $150 Million profit by then.
And if it actually manages to hit $575 Million worldwide by the end of weekend two, than they're going to do better than my original high-end prediction of $650 Million. Though it will fall significantly and fast after the third week if it holds up like most movies that aren't hated do, it's still got at least one more week and good weekend to make some real profit here before those numbers start getting too small to really matter anymore. 4th weekend, while small by comparison should still be a significant addition, especially after the 4th weekend international numbers come in too. If they can manage $575 Million and all they'd need is $75 more million to beat my high-end prediction after weekend 2, they shouldn't have any problems with that. No way this thing makes a Billion though. It will fall well short of those predicitons.
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