Pipelineistan by SIGNYM

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Pipelineistan

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Thursday, June 30, 2016 07:35
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1893
PAGE 1 of 1

Saturday, June 18, 2016 12:59 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Props to SECOND for bringing new information to the board. In another thread ... I forget where ... SECOND linked to an article about the TAP/TANAP (Trans-Adriatic/ Trans-Anatolian) gas pipeline.

The pipeline is being constructed from USA-friendly Azerbaijan thru USA-friendly Georgia across frenemy territory Turkey thru EU-subservient Greece thru mafia-controlled Albania to EU-member Italy (and presumably thru southern Europe)

This pipeline is required to replace the Russian-supplied pipelines which transit Ukraine, contract ending 2019. Russia had originally planned to build a "South Stream" pipeline thru Bulgaria, but Bulgaria withdrew when it faced a series of catastrophic and financially baseless (i.e foreign-engineered) bank failures. Then Russia proposed a "Turkish stream" which - as you might imagine- crossed Turkey to Greece.

However, the shoot-down of the Russian jet by Turkish forces signaled much, much more than Turkey's support of jihadists in Syria. It signaled that Turkey had thrown its lot in with the west. That explains Putin's extremely emotional response, which (IMHO) had less to do with the loss of a Russian pilot and rescue crew, and much more to do with the secret deal that he thought he had with Erdogan. Again, MHO that the outlines of the deal were that Erdogan would be able to continue running -and getting rich off of- his side-deal on ISIL oil if the "Turkish stream" pipeline stayed on-track. Clearly, that deal (if there was one) came unglued the moment the Russian jet was shot down. Not only did Russia ban Turkish food imports, it also "outed" Turkey as an ISIL supplier (which I think everyone in the international community knew but had interests in not mentioning) and started bombing the snot out of ISIL oil convoys.

The question is whether the TAP-TANAP pipeline can be completed before Russian-supplied gas contract is due to end in 2019. (Meanwhile, North Stream-2, the Russian-German pipeline, continues. While Germany many be a picador for anti-Russian sanctions, let it never be said that Germany neglects its own gas supplies!)

Almost everything in the mideast and nearby has to do with oil or natural gas: Who has it, who needs it, and - most importantly- who can connect their supplies to the markets across which territories.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, June 18, 2016 6:16 PM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Props to SECOND for bringing new information to the board. In another thread ... I forget where ... SECOND linked to an article about the TAP/TANAP gas pipeline.

Here it is: www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?bid=18&tid=58499&mid=1010974#
1010974

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, June 18, 2016 7:06 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Yes thank you. It really piqued my interest.

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Saturday, June 18, 2016 7:10 PM

THGRRI

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Yes thank you. It really piqued my interest.

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

Read the writing on the wall SIG. People don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool. Agree or not, they are building it.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 3:21 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:

Read the writing on the wall SIG. People don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool. Agree or not, they are building it.

Let's see... with foreign powers creating bank failures in Bulgaria, Turkey stuffing the female-burning crazy-assed jihadists in Syria with weapons, and the Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution, do you really think that the western powers are building their pipeline on anything other than shared greed among the oligarchs, and intimidation of the "little people"?

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 8:18 AM

THGRRI

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Quote:

Read the writing on the wall SIG. People don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool. Agree or not, they are building it.

Let's see... with foreign powers creating bank failures in Bulgaria, Turkey stuffing the female-burning crazy-assed jihadists in Syria with weapons, and the Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution, do you really think that the western powers are building their pipeline on anything other than shared greed among the oligarchs, and intimidation of the "little people"?

SIG it doesn't matter what you believe. The fact is they are building it, damage to Russia done. Hmmm, troika a nice Russia word is it not comrade. Hmm, blaming someone else for your problems. Again Russian tradition. Like you blame everyone else for Greece's problems so you can make your desired point. Like you claim the world is lying about doping to keep you out of the Olympics.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 9:32 AM

SECOND

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at https://www.mediafire.com/two

Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

. . . and the Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution, do you really think . . .
Hmmm, troika a nice Russia word is it not comrade. Hmm, blaming someone else for your problems. Again Russian tradition. Like you blame everyone else for Greece's problems so you can make your desired point. Like you claim the world is lying about doping to keep you out of the Olympics.

I believe the “troika” in the phrase “Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution” is the European Union, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank. At least the BBC has used troika to mean that.
www.bbc.com/news/business-15149626

And for those who believe Greece's financial woes are solely Greece's fault, not the Troika's, there are good reasons to believe that is a false belief.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/when-virtue-fails/

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 10:06 AM

THGRRI

Quote:
Originally posted by second:
Quote:
Originally posted by THGRRI:
Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:

. . . and the Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution, do you really think . . .
Hmmm, troika a nice Russia word is it not comrade. Hmm, blaming someone else for your problems. Again Russian tradition. Like you blame everyone else for Greece's problems so you can make your desired point. Like you claim the world is lying about doping to keep you out of the Olympics.
I believe the “troika” in the phrase “Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution” is the European Union, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank. At least the BBC has used troika to mean that.
www.bbc.com/news/business-15149626

And for those who believe Greece's financial woes are solely Greece's fault, not the Troika's, there are good reasons to believe that is a false belief.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/when-virtue-fails/

Ok Second but I was talking about the word itself, not in what context it was used. I was implying SIG used it because she is Russian. As for why Grease is in the trouble it is in, they are where they are due to choices they made leading up to this point. The fact that those who would help add to the dilemma by placing demands on their support, goes without saying.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 10:13 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
Read the writing on the wall SIG. People don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool. Agree or not, they are building it.-THRIDSTOOGE

Let's see... with foreign powers creating bank failures in Bulgaria, Turkey stuffing the female-burning crazy-assed jihadists in Syria with weapons, and the Troika grinding Greece into absolute destitution, do you really think that the western powers are building their pipeline on anything other than shared greed among the oligarchs, and intimidation of the "little people"?- SIGNY

SIG it doesn't matter what you believe.

First of all, the bank failures in Bulgaria, the grinding poverty in Greece, and the total corruption in Turkey and Albania aren't my "belief" - those are real events. Don't you take your head out of your ass once in a while to let it read the news?

Quote:
Hmmm, troika a nice Russia word is it not comrade.

And may I say that you can't get through two posts without demonstrating your stubborn, willful ignorance?

You see, "troika" isn't MY word for the combination of the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) which sets the "austerity" requirements for further loans to Greece.

It's the European word that has been used SINCE AT LEAST 2010 to describe the three-headed entity. And everybody here knows about it - except you.

You really should take your mind out of it's hellhole once in a while. Yanno, give it some fresh air.

Quote:
Hmm, blaming someone else for your problems. Again Russian tradition. Like you blame everyone else for Greece's problems so you can make your desired point.

I have no idea what you're talking about. The world of international finance and power politics can't be analyzed as some sort of morality play where "the good guys" (the USA and it s allied institutions) fight "the bad guys" and "the little people" have their interests represented in the end.

If you want to know who was to blame for the current Greek crisis, it was the then-Greek Stephanopoulos government colluding with Goldman Sachs to hide the amount of debt they carried so they could join the EU and then borrow EVEN MORE money at EU-interest rates. This article is from The Nation, but do a search on goldman-sachs-greek-government-collusion and you will find dozens if not hundreds of well-written articles on how the Greek people got into this mess. HINT: It didn't have anything to do with what they did or what they're currently doing. http://www.thenation.com/article/goldmans-greek-gambit/

Quote:
Like you claim the world is lying about doping to keep you out of the Olympics.

Like you lie about my claims, you mean.

Not only are you abysmally, willfully ignorant, you're also a liar, just like your two stooge friends.

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 4:45 PM

THGRRI

Quote:
SIG
"If you want to know who was to blame for the current Greek crisis, it was the then-Greek Stephanopoulos government colluding with Goldman Sachs to hide the amount of debt they carried so they could join the EU and then borrow EVEN MORE money at EU-interest rates. This article is from The Nation, but do a search on goldman-sachs-greek-government-collusion and you will find dozens if not hundreds of well-written articles on how the Greek people got into this mess. HINT: It didn't have anything to do with what they did or what they're currently doing."

That entire last post by you designed to school me, only to confirm what I said at the end. Its Greece's own fault for the predicament they are in.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Sunday, June 19, 2016 11:33 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
"If you want to know who was to blame for the current Greek crisis, it was the then-Greek Stephanopoulos government colluding with Goldman Sachs to hide the amount of debt they carried so they could join the EU and then borrow EVEN MORE money at EU-interest rates. This article is from The Nation, but do a search on goldman-sachs-greek-government-collusion and you will find dozens if not hundreds of well-written articles on how the Greek people got into this mess. HINT: It didn't have anything to do with what they did or what they're currently doing."- SIGNY

That entire last post by you designed to school me, only to confirm what I said at the end. Its Greece's own fault for the predicament they are in. THIRD STOOGE

THIRDSTOOGE, what you said was ...

Quote:
Like you blame everyone else for Greece's problems so you can make your desired point... As for why Grease is in the trouble it is in, they are where they are due to choices they made leading up to this point.

I don't blame everyone else for Greek's problems, and I don't blame "them" or "they". I put the blame squarely where it belongs ... on

Quote:
shared greed among the oligarchs

So let's see .... You concede by silence that

I didn't use the word "troika" because I'm "Russian" but because it was the commonly-accepted EUROPEAN word to describe the shared decision-making of the EC, ECB, and IMF, and that everyone knew it (except you).

That it's not that "people don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool" because they're already being blackmailed by the USA military and the banks into rejecting Russian pipelines.

That the world of geopolitics doesn't run according to your little fairy tales of good guys versus bad guys.

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, June 20, 2016 9:13 AM

THGRRI

Quote:
SIG

That it's not that "people don't trust Russia and want to get their oil from people who will not use it as a blackmail tool" because they're already being blackmailed by the USA military and the banks into rejecting Russian pipelines.

That the world of geopolitics doesn't run according to your little fairy tales of good guys versus bad guys.

Wrong SIG ( comrade Troll ), the world of geopolitics doesn't run on your bullshit lies and denials of Russian aggressions against it's neighbors.

Russia's New Energy Blackmail Tool

"Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin recently explained: "Russia enjoys vast energy and mineral resources which serve as a basis to develop its economy; as an instrument to implement domestic and foreign policy. The role of the country on international energy markets determines, in many ways, its geopolitical influence" (Ukrayinska Pravda, 4 Feb 2009). Putin was the architect of Russia's use of energy as a foreign policy tool. He is now threatening to use Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as Russia's new energy weapon. In essence, this will be utilized as a means of coercing the EU in order to achieve de facto recognition of a Russian "sphere of influence" within the former Soviet Union.

In this context, Putin's threat to divert gas from the EU to feed other markets appears to be a bluff. He has not abandoned the Nord and South Stream pipelines and the second string of the Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey. However, it is becoming abundantly clear that the Kremlin is worried that its plethora of projected overland and undersea pipelines represents a risky and expensive gamble in its attempt to restore influence over the former Soviet republics."

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34888

FACTBOX: Russian oil and gas export interruptions

"Russia has cut oil and gas supplies to neighbors and indirectly to onward customers in recent years.

The following is a list of some supply interruptions and the reasons offered for them.

The Swedish Defence Research Agency, a government-linked body, said in a report in March 2006 that Russia had cut off exports on around 40 occasions.

Moscow denies that it uses energy as a political tool.

BELARUS

In a pricing dispute, Russia cut oil supplies to Belarus in January 2007 along the Druzhba, or Friendship, pipeline for three days, reducing exports to Germany and Poland.

Druzhba -- which passes through Ukraine and Belarus -- supplies Europe with around one tenth of its oil.

Russia's state controlled Gazprom has also threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus in price disputes. Around 20 percent of Russia's gas exports to Europe pass through Belarus.

LITHUANIA

In July 2006, Russia shut an oil pipeline to Lithuania's Mazeikiu refinery, saying it needed to be repaired to avoid a leak. The pipeline has not restarted.

Lithuania said the shutdown is a politically motivated action after the country sold its Mazeikiu refinery to Poland's PKN Orlen rather than to a Russian bidder.

Russian technical watchdog Rostekhnadzor said in September that pipeline company Transneft would need at least another 18 months for repairs, meaning the pipeline could not reopen before the end of 2009 at the earliest.

UKRAINE, JANUARY 2006

Ukraine has long haggled over how much it pays Russia for gas and the row came to world attention in January 2006, when it led Gazprom to halt supplies to Ukraine.

Onward supplies to Italy, France, Croatia, Poland, Hungary, Germany and Romania fell sharply but were restored within days.

GEORGIA, JANUARY 2006

In January 2006, blasts on gas pipelines in Russia, just north of the Georgian border, cut off supplies to Georgia and Armenia. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili blamed Russia for the blast. Russia blamed pro-Chechen insurgents.

LATVIA

In 2003, Russia closed an oil pipeline to Latvia's Ventspils oil terminal.

Russian officials have said Ventspils had little hope of recovering its crude supplies following Russia's expansion of its Primorsk facilities.

ESTONIA

Russian oil firms used to ship 25 million tons of refined oil products a year, a quarter of their exports, via Estonia, but volumes fell after a dispute with Moscow.

Shipments of other commodities, including metals and coal, through Estonia have also been reduced.

Relations deteriorated after Estonia moved a memorial to World War Two Red Army soldiers from a site in the city centre to a military cemetery last year, triggering two nights of riots by local Russia speakers.

Extract from The Swedish Defence Research Agency report:

"Since 1991, the energy lever has been used for putting political or economic pressure on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia that subsequently affected most of Europe.

The number of incidents, i.e. cut-offs, take-overs, coercive price policy, blackmail or threats, is over fifty in total (of which about forty are cut-offs).

Incidents appear to be equally divided on the Yeltsin and Putin eras, but the number of cut-offs have decreased by half during Putin.

The immediate reasons for Russia's coercive policy appear to be to coerce political concession in ongoing negotiations, commandeer infrastructure take-over, and execute economically favorable deals or to make political statements."

(Reporting by Tom Bergin, editing by Anthony Barker)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-russia-cutoffs-idusls57897220
080828

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, June 20, 2016 12:01 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

THIRDSTOOGE- Your article was written in 2008. Let's take a look at the specific instances ...

LITHUANIA

Quote:
In July 2006, Russia shut an oil pipeline to Lithuania's Mazeikiu refinery, saying it needed to be repaired to avoid a leak. The pipeline has not restarted [by 2008].

In 2006, the refinery experienced a significant explosion and fire, leading to the collapse of their vacuum distillation unit. There were unfounded accusations of Russian sabotage, and more importantly of criminal negligence on the part of the operators.

Quote:
Lithuania High Court Acquits Former Refinery Heads of 2006 Fire
Lithuania’s Supreme Court exonerated two former executives at the Baltic nation’s oil refinery of criminal negligence charges stemming from a fire that damaged the plant in 2006. ... Mazeikiu, bought by Poland’s PKN Orlen SA in 2006, was damaged by fire on Oct. 12 of that year after an oil-product leak in the distillation unit, forcing the company to reduce production. Prosecutors in May 2007 accused English and Luck of ignoring safety requirements to boost profit and not stopping equipment for repairs on a regular basis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-10-16/lithuania-high-court
-acquits-former-refinery-heads-of-2006-fire
Funny, but your article never mentions the fire, which was catastrophic and widely covered at the time.

BELARUS
The article that you quoted said

Quote:
In a pricing dispute, Russia cut oil supplies to Belarus in January 2007 along the Druzhba, or Friendship, pipeline for three days, reducing exports to Germany and Poland.

Another article, perhaps less slanted, had this to say

Quote:
Belarus cuts off Russian pipeline in bitter gas war
A bitter energy dispute jeopardised oil supplies to western Europe yesterday as Belarus struck out at neighbouring Russia by cutting off a vital transit pipeline crossing Belarussian territory. The closure of the 2,500-mile Druzhba pipeline (druzhba means friendship in Belarussian), one of Europe's biggest, meant no Russian oil was being pumped along it to Germany, Poland or Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/jan/09/oilandpetrol.russia
According to tis article, it was Belarus which cut off the pipeline, not Russia.

UKRAINE
Ukraine has a history of stealing gas from the transit lines, and not paying for it.

Quote:
A serious dispute began in March 2005 over the price of natural gas supplied and the cost of transit. During this conflict, Russia claimed Ukraine was not paying for gas, but diverting that which was intended to be exported to the EU from the pipelines. Ukrainian officials at first denied the accusation, but later Naftohaz admitted that natural gas intended for other European countries was retained and used for domestic needs. The dispute reached a high point on 1 January 2006, when Russia cut off all gas supplies passing through Ukrainian territory. On 4 January 2006, a preliminary agreement between Russia and Ukraine was achieved, and the supply was restored. The situation calmed until October 2007 when new disputes began over Ukrainian gas debts. This led to reduction of gas supplies in March 2008. During the last months of 2008, relations once again became tense when Ukraine and Russia could not agree on the debts owed by Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes

From the article that you posted

GEORGIA, JANUARY 2006

Quote:
In January 2006, blasts on gas pipelines in Russia, just north of the Georgian border, cut off supplies to Georgia and Armenia. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili blamed Russia for the blast. Russia blamed pro-Chechen insurgents.

LATVIA

Quote:
In 2003

That's reaching back quite a way, isn't it?

Quote:
Russia closed an oil pipeline to Latvia's Ventspils oil terminal.

Because Russia built its own export terminal. Or, as a less-biased article might say...

Quote:
Russian government's top priority -- ... sometimes takes second place to reducing Russia's dependence on its neighbors, especially the ones that are about to join NATO, like Latvia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/21/business/international-business-latv
ia-s-oil-routes-dry-up-as-russia-alters-flow.html

ESTONIA
The article that you quote doesn't even state a year or a specific incidence, just a general reduction of trade.

-------------

REAL CAUSES FOR REDUCTIONS OF SUPPLY
As far as I can tell, it seems as if at least some of the reductions were due to the nations thru which the pipelines passed - Belarus, Ukraine stealing product and/or shutting off the supply - not to Russia.

Other instances - Latvia, Georgia- have to do with physical destruction of infrastructure due to accident or terrorist sabotage.

In other instances - Latvian and Estonia- Russia stopped exporting thru nations which were about to become NATO members, but built its own export terminals instead. Makes sense, no?

I have heard of other stoppages more recently (Ukraine, specifically) due to unpaid bills. Is ANY supplier required to supply goods without the prospect of payment?

Seriously, your article is terribly flawed. If there were real instances of Russia cutting off supplies for political purposes, the "reporter" would have been able to quote far more robust and obvious examples. But your reporter lied ... literally, blamed Russia when Belarus was the guilty party ... to cook up some kind of "case" against Russia.

The west has played worse games against various regional nations in order to block the various Russia-proposed pipelines. But next, I'll be hearing from you how it was all "Russia's fault" that southern Europe never got Russian gas. Because you're just that kind of guy, yanno?

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, June 20, 2016 12:14 PM

THGRRI

“It follows that it was not a very remarkable action, or contrary to the common practice of mankind, if we did accept an empire that was offered to us, and refused to give it up under the pressure of three of the strongest motives, fear, honor, and interest. And it was not we who set the example, for it has always been law that the weaker should be subject to the stronger. Thucydides

A great European empire, having suffered a military defeat and then the loss of influence over nations under its protective control, sought to expand its influence and wealth through conquest in Central Asia. Over a century and a half later, dishonored militarily, marginalized diplomatically, and threatened economically, Russia once again looks to expand its empire through Central Asia. The Crimean War was no less disastrous than the Cold War, and the Treaty of Paris no less damaging to Russia’s perceived honor than the breakup of the Soviet Union.0F1 In the late 19th century, the Napoleonic invasion was still remembered and feared. In the early 21st century, the German invasion and the Great Patriotic War are, likewise, recent history. Russian perceptions of external threats and internal dangers drive a very real fear of the future and other nations’ intentions. Apparent loss in the Cold War has tarnished Russian pride in their social accomplishment, and failures in the Caspian region have diminished perception of their military might. Russian desire to be seen as the protector of the Slavic nations is as real an interest as Athens’ as protector of the Hellenes. Yet Russia is constrained by international norms, military realities, and economic considerations. Defending interests, pursuing honor, and mitigating fear require new methods in the chaotic, multi-polar post-Cold War world. As NATO expands and surrounds Russia externally, and fears of internal political instability increase, Russia’s means of defending its interests have become more limited. Yet Russia has a new means of coping with this challenge: the use of economic coercion, especially in the realm of strategic energy resources. In July 2005, angered by US criticism of the handling of riots and at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s urging, Uzbek President Islam Karimov demanded that the US and NATO forces vacate the base at Karshi-Khanabad.1F2 Although the proximate cause appeared to have been US criticism, Karimov and Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously signed a treaty to form a “strategic partnership” covering political and economic issues. Provisions in the treaty included increasing support for the fuel and energy sectors of the Uzbek economy, including a promise (by Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly) of $1 billion in investment (including a 40% expansion of pipeline capacity) and a 25-year development and production-sharing agreement with Lukoil, also worth an estimated $1 billion.2F3 After US and NATO troops left, Russia and Uzbekistan demonstrated closer relations by signing a treaty of mutual military assistance.3F4 Less than four years later, in Moscow on Tuesday, 4 February 2009, Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev announced that Russia was extending $2 billion in loans to his country. He then announced that NATO forces would have to vacate Manas AB, the main aerial lifeline to NATO forces in Afghanistan.4F5 This change in policy, following the disruption to land routes caused by the Georgian conflict, put US strategy and the planned spring troop surge in Afghanistan at risk. Are these events isolated incidents of economic coercion, or is Russia engaged in a far-sighted and subtle coercive strategy? If so, is economic coercion an effective means of securing Russian interests, allaying fears and preserving honor? The answers to these questions are important since they point to probable future events. If shaping a situation economically is an effective and efficient means of securing interests, US planners must consider what the future may look like, especially in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Economic shaping is a long-term prospect involving infrastructure construction and market development. The possibility of a large, resource-rich, Russian dominated trading block that wields economic power is a significant strategic challenge (think OPEC with an ideology). If, however, economic coercion is relatively ineffective at securing interests, and is merely the result of military and diplomatic weakness, the challenge for planners is significantly simpler. In this case, Russia will pursue short-term gains in the Near Abroad, at the expense of long-term strategic advantage.”

To understand the significance of Russian attempts to use economic coercion, it is important to understand both the mechanisms of coercion and the nature of the actors involved (both the target and the coercer). This thesis answers the question: “Is economic coercion an effective way to further the long-term interests of the state?” Beginning with the concept of coercion, especially economic coercion, this thesis examines how strategic energy resources can be used to further state goals through an understanding of credibility, capability, communication, choice, and culture. Because understanding the context is crucial to understanding the elements of a specific coercive transaction, the case studies focus on the relationship between the coercer (Russia) and the target, based on history and perceived interests. This relationship depends on the interaction of the strategic cultures within the framework of the coercive efforts. All countries have a strategic culture and that culture, though mutable, is slower to change than the form of government or specific interests of the country. Russia’s strategic culture influences the perceived means of coercion, and is the catalyst driving the use of economic coercion instead of military force. Finally, this thesis looks at contextual case studies where Russia has attempted to use strategic energy resources to coerce both dependent producer countries in Central Asia, and dependent consumer countries in Eastern Europe.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, June 20, 2016 12:38 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

An entire quote of OPINION, unsourced and with no backup evidence whatsoever. Are you trying and distract from the fact that you just quoted an article full of provable lies and insinuations?

Yep, you're that kind of guy!

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Monday, June 20, 2016 12:48 PM

THGRRI

Quote:
Originally posted by SIGNYM:
An entire quote of OPINION, unsourced and with no backup evidence whatsoever. Are you trying and distract from the fact that you just quoted an article full of provable lies and insinuations?

Yep, you're that kind of guy!

No SIG no denials that I cut and pasted some of a thesis on the subject. I don't usually post this way as others here know, but for you who loves to post incredible amounts of subjective crap, posts of this length are very common.

That said you claim this thesis is full of provable lies. It took you no time at all to make that claim so I suggest you have at it. lol, of course we know you won't.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, June 30, 2016 7:35 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

It's always good to keep track of a few things:

1) Who is President/ PM, and why.

2) Who has what military resources deployed where, and what is it capably of.

3) Whose money is being used for international trade, and

4) Who is selling the most petroleum resources, and to whom.

------------

On that last point, in a shocking twist, Turkey's Erodogan apologizes for downing the Russian plane, blames it in former Foreign Minister Davutoglu (whom Erdogan sacked a month or two ago) and now the South Stream with Russia is back on! (I have entirely cynical thoughts about that, but not enuf time to post them.)

Not only that, but Turkey, Syria, and Israel have applied for membership with the SCO, which is a Russian-containing military alliance.

I know I've posted this more than once, but I feel as if deep fractures are taking place, not only between Saudi Arabia and the USA but now, it seems, between the EU and itself, and between many former "partners". The old configurations are gone, or going. Whatever stable partnerships formed the assumed "background" of geopolitics can no longer be assumed.

Interesting times.

--------------
I'll tell you what I DON'T like about Trump: I think that he has never confronted either the international banking cartel, nor the CIA-State Dept multi-headed hydra, nor the military-industrial complex. The last person to confront them was JFK (BTW, ALL immigration was illegal under JFK) and look what happened to him.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

YOUR OPTIONS

SHARE THREAD

NEW POSTS TODAY

USER	POST DATE

USER

POST DATE