Trump Has 2 Point Edge in New Florida Poll... by 6IXSTRINGJACK

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Trump Has 2 Point Edge in New Florida Poll...

POSTED BY: 6IXSTRINGJACK
UPDATED: Thursday, October 27, 2016 00:31
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 935
PAGE 1 of 1

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 6:45 PM

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/bloomberg-florida-poll-trump-cl
inton/

A heavily skewed poll by Bloomberg, as reported by CNN, shows that among likely voters and people who already voted that Trump holds a 2 point lead. Even cheating, it's getting harder and harder to pretend that Hillary is going to win this.

Why? Because Math.

Here's the Actual Bloomberg Poll: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

Do a "FIND" and you can click on a link for the "Methodology" making up how they came up with this number.

Here's the link if you trust me and are too lazy to search for it: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll

In the middle of the 5th page, the first paragraph under the heading "Methodology" states as follows:

The Bloomberg Politics Florida Poll, conducted Oct. 21 - 24 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on interviews with 953 Florida residents who are say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2016 general election. In order to look more closely at Hispanic voters, an oversample of 148 likely voters identified as Hispanic on the Florida registered voter list was conducted, leading to a total of 212 likely Hispanic voters.

There is no logical reason that they opted to include 148 more Hispanic voters then they expect to vote for every 953 people expected to vote in the election. They just state that they did it. (Which means, conversely, that they also included 148 less Non-Hispanic voters in this poll at the same time).

According to this poll, 45% of likely voters will vote for Trump, and 43% of likely voters will vote for Hillary.

I'm going to give VERY conservative estimates of what I believe the poll would have shown had they only included the 64 Hispanic voters they expect to show up to the polls for every 953 people that show up.

Let's give the 148 additional Non-Hispanic Voters a perfect 50/50 split. Sounds fair, right?

I'll even give the Hispanics the benefit of the doubt and say that only 75% of them would have voted for Hillary when that number is likely much higher.

This would mean that, given the above conservative estimates, if they only included the 64 expected Hispanics of every 953 voters in Florida instead of the 330% over exaggeration of Hispanic voters they included, Trump would get 37 more votes, and Hillary would get 37 less votes.

As the poll states, 45% of the vote goes to Trump. 429 votes.
As the poll states, 43% of the vote goes to Hillary. 410 votes.

If you add the 37 votes to Trump and subtract the 37 votes from Hillary, this is the end result:

Trump: 466 (49%)
Hillary: 373 (39%)

That's a 10 point spread when we admit that the likely Hispanic voter turnout in Florida is around 7-8% instead of 21% as this poll decided to show.

I believe that the spread will be even wider by November 9th when the final tally is in, but I'm playing it conservative.

My prediction is that Trump wins Florida by at least 9%.

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 8:28 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK

No replies to a thread using actual science and math.

No surprise.

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

Thursday, October 27, 2016 12:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK

4 hours later...

Middle of the day...

No replies....

No surprise....

HillDog is done.

Stick a fork in Her. ;)

Do Right, Be Right. :)

NOTIFY: Y | REPLY | REPLY WITH QUOTE | TOP | HOME

YOUR OPTIONS

SHARE THREAD

NEW POSTS TODAY

USER	POST DATE

USER

POST DATE