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Originally posted by Wishimay:
Here's how all Cat 5 storms have tracked from 1851-2014

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.

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Originally posted by 1kiki:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
2 Category 5 Hurricanes through Chicago. Wow.

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That's an interesting take - I think those two downgraded after landfall. As you track along a path you see the dots change color. Red seems to be category 5. I'm not sure what blue is, but a lot of them turn blue then disappear.

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Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.

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6 Reasons Why Hurricane Irma Could Be "The Natural Disaster Of Our Time"

Hurricane Harvey was a tragic nightmare that hit the Texas shores with force and then lingered for days, dumping truck-loads of rain on a city ill-equipped to handle it. Florida is next, and if predictions are accurate, Hurricane Irma is going to be far worse than Houston was, and worse than anyone has prepared for.

Already, Irma is setting records and being named the strongest storm the Atlantic Ocean has seen on record.

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Here is a short list of things meteorologists and experts at the Hurricane Center have already seen from Irma that should give everyone pause.
1. The wind speeds broke the measuring tool.
The wind was so strong when Irma passed over Barbuda that the monitoring equipment used to measure the wind was damaged and couldn’t report an accurate account of the wind speed. It tapped out at 151 mph.

2. The prospect of 185mph wind should strike fear into our hearts.
The gusts for the Category 5 storm have reached 185 mph. That’s the equivalent of an EF4 tornado sitting on an area, nonstop for hours. To put that into perspective, the photo below is of the damage sustained by residents of Garland/Rowlett, Texas after an EF4 tornado blew through in 2015.

.

To make matters worse, NOAA’s tools dropped into the hurricane to measure the storm and recorded 226mph gusts from its northeast eyewall.

7:15 PM - Whoa. Dropsonde in NE eyewall 196 knot winds just 19mb above the surface, 167 knot winds in lowest reported level. #Irma pic.twitter.com/rB31sZf61B — Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) September 5, 2017


3. No one has heard from the tiny island it hit in hours.

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Barbuda is a tiny island with barely over 1,000 residents. The top elevation on the island is 125 feet above sea level. Storm surges, however, predict waves will reach seven to 11 feet in the Northern Leeward Islands. That was worse for Turks and Caicos, which is expected to see 15- to 20-foot storm surges. As long as the surges are under 10 feet, Barbuda will be fine, but storm surges like those expected for Turks and Caicos would destroy the island.

Already, what scientists have seen from Barbuda is leaving them speechless. Tide sensors in Barbuda recently reported 7.89 feet above what the average height of the top tide is each day.

I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/B0ewFyvcSv — Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) September 5, 2017


4. Irma ripped grass from its roots.

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CNN meteorologist Chad Myers reported that there were parts of Bermuda that saw vegetation ripped from the soil, the winds were so strong. The claim hasn’t been reported by other outlets and there are no photos or video yet that show the full extent of the damage.

5. Miami isn’t prepared — no one is.
Florida is as good as it gets at handling hurricanes, similar to states that are accustomed to navigating tornadoes or weathering earthquakes. Florida citizens know how to prepare for a storm. However, the strength of Irma seems to dwarf more recent hurricanes.

Already, the city of Miami is being forced to raise its roads to accommodate rising waters creeping into the city. A report from The Atlantic notes that the last major hurricane to hit Miami was in 1926 and 400 people were killed. Back then, the city boasted 100,000 residents, but today the population is more like 6 million.

Disaster planners have long been concerned about a natural event of this magnitude hitting a major U.S. city. If Irma turns toward Florida, this could be the horrific event they’ve feared.

6. President Donald Trump only barely understands the crisis.
During a meeting with Democratic and Republican leaders, Trump acted as if he had special insider information on the severity of Hurricane Irma. All he could manage to tell them was it is “not good.”

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:

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6 Reasons Why Hurricane Irma Could Be "The Natural Disaster Of Our Time"

Hurricane Harvey was a tragic nightmare that hit the Texas shores with force and then lingered for days, dumping truck-loads of rain on a city ill-equipped to handle it. Florida is next, and if predictions are accurate, Hurricane Irma is going to be far worse than Houston was, and worse than anyone has prepared for.

Already, Irma is setting records and being named the strongest storm the Atlantic Ocean has seen on record.

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But, yep, this is all "normal variation", according to climate-shift deniers. Just expect to see historic and even geologic records broken for a long time to come, not just here but everywhere, and not just with hurricanes but blizzards and droughts. In CA we just had a drought the likes of which haven't been seen in 1500 years, followed by the rainiest year on record. Houston just had a "1000-year" flood. BC is burning like never before in history.

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Here is a short list of things meteorologists and experts at the Hurricane Center have already seen from Irma that should give everyone pause.
1. The wind speeds broke the measuring tool.
The wind was so strong when Irma passed over Barbuda that the monitoring equipment used to measure the wind was damaged and couldn’t report an accurate account of the wind speed. It tapped out at 151 mph.

2. The prospect of 185mph wind should strike fear into our hearts.
The gusts for the Category 5 storm have reached 185 mph. That’s the equivalent of an EF4 tornado sitting on an area, nonstop for hours.

To make matters worse, NOAA’s tools dropped into the hurricane to measure the storm and recorded 226mph gusts from its northeast eyewall.

7:15 PM - Whoa. Dropsonde in NE eyewall 196 knot winds just 19mb above the surface, 167 knot winds in lowest reported level. #Irma pic.twitter.com/rB31sZf61B — Alex Lamers (@AlexJLamers) September 5, 2017

3. No one has heard from the tiny island it hit in hours.

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Finally, we did. 90% of Barbuda infrastructure is destroyed.

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Barbuda is a tiny island with barely over 1,000 residents. The top elevation on the island is 125 feet above sea level. Storm surges, however, predict waves will reach seven to 11 feet in the Northern Leeward Islands. That was worse for Turks and Caicos, which is expected to see 15- to 20-foot storm surges. As long as the surges are under 10 feet, Barbuda will be fine, but storm surges like those expected for Turks and Caicos would destroy the island.

Already, what scientists have seen from Barbuda is leaving them speechless. Tide sensors in Barbuda recently reported 7.89 feet above what the average height of the top tide is each day.

I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery. pic.twitter.com/B0ewFyvcSv — Taylor Trogdon (@TTrogdon) September 5, 2017

4. Irma ripped grass from its roots.

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IF true: Holy cripe!

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CNN meteorologist Chad Myers reported that there were parts of Bermuda that saw vegetation ripped from the soil, the winds were so strong. The claim hasn’t been reported by other outlets and there are no photos or video yet that show the full extent of the damage.

5. Miami isn’t prepared — no one is.
Florida is as good as it gets at handling hurricanes, similar to states that are accustomed to navigating tornadoes or weathering earthquakes. Florida citizens know how to prepare for a storm. However, the strength of Irma seems to dwarf more recent hurricanes.

Already, the city of Miami is being forced to raise its roads to accommodate rising waters creeping into the city. A report from The Atlantic notes that the last major hurricane to hit Miami was in 1926 and 400 people were killed. Back then, the city boasted 100,000 residents, but today the population is more like 6 million.

Disaster planners have long been concerned about a natural event of this magnitude hitting a major U.S. city. If Irma turns toward Florida, this could be the horrific event they’ve feared.

6. President Donald Trump only barely understands the crisis.
During a meeting with Democratic and Republican leaders, Trump acted as if he had special insider information on the severity of Hurricane Irma. All he could manage to tell them was it is “not good.”

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Okay, I know that Zerohedge's stock-in-trade is scaremongering. If you read it often enough, you'll know that every day features several stories about the end of something, whether its the end of the stock market bull, the end of the dollar, or the end of western civilization itself. But sometimes the level of event justifies or even exceeds the level of fear.

If Irma rakes east coast of FL as projected, with wind speeds above 150 mph, most frame homes will be severely damaged.

Latest projected path.

http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/_docs/hurricanes.pdf

I an't help thinking of a book I read many years ago called "Mother of Storms". Parts of the book were crappy, but it did an excellent job of describing super-typhoon behavior; the author really did his homework on that topic.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:


In the Irma track map, what are the lines of solid black and solid red?

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The eye is coming right for us. Gonna get interesting here around noon on Sunday. The fear mongering media hype is off the charts. Oh well, here we go again. Que sera sera.- RIVERLOVE

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My idiot brother says he's not leaving. Just built a house last year. He thinks hurricane straps that are only rated to 150 mph will save them. He always was a cocky moron. Did I mention he's cult level religious?- WISHY

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Originally posted by Brenda:

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Originally posted by AURaptor:

Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.

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Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.

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Originally posted by AURaptor:

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Originally posted by Brenda:

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
Folks are realizing that once a hurricane makes landfall and is no longer drawing energy from the open water, it's basically no longer a hurricane, right ? Those tracks up to Canada aren't of hurricanes, but of their remains, aka tropical depressions and the like.

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Yes, but they still dump a hell of a lot of water and the wind still does a hell of a lot of damage.

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You got that right about the wind!! Opal ( '95 ) came right up from the Gulf and plowed over ATL. I've never seen so many large trees toppled, across a large area. I've seen tornadoes clear out parts of neighborhoods, but power lines and trees were down all over the place ... it was crazy.

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Hey, I bet they don't do too many of THESE. Notice that the door blows open first before the house blows away.


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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
News just said Irma will be down to Cat 4 before landfall, then will stay up the center of Florida.

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Originally posted by AURaptor:
Latest predicted course has it running right into FL and then traveling up the entire state, and headed right towards ATL.

I guess the good news is that it's only gonna be a Cat 4 storm when it hits FL, and then lots of energy will be lost as it moves up the state , over land.

Unless it pushes even further west, and gets back over into the Gulf.


Yikes.

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
Where is the Jose thread?
Heard Jose is going to wreak havoc on the Keys.

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Originally posted by Wishimay:
I've been telling people all week that I thought this one was going around to west Fla like 1935, and now they say it is. My bro texted me that he left this morning, finally. And that he was heading towards Orlando, which I hear is a parking lot. The farmers here are mowing the corn down at a furious pace, in case the rain heads this way. I've never seen them mow it still partially green before. Going to be a bad weedy sneezy spring.

Came home to a woman in my driveway putting signs in people's yards trying to get them to sign a petition to keep from zoning us.

"They'll make us put in sewer!"
-Ok, some people here need to do that anyway. Poop regulation is a good thing...

"They can build big buildings everywhere"
-It's so they can put in a gas station. These idiots are fighting against gas stations. That this area DESPERATELY NEEDS.

"They'll take away farmland!"
-Wow, a few acres? SO what.


Then, the big argue...

"I DON'T WANT DAMN FERRENERS HERE"

Hubby is wearing his work shirt, keep in mind he works for a notorious foreign company... He points to the logo and says "You mean, like these guys?"

I swear, the thought that this was a foreign owned company never crossed her pea brain. I actually saw the thought cross her mind from one side to the other...

"Oh... yeah....my son works there..."

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Originally posted by SIGNYM:
Well, no doubt there's going to be hell to pay all up and down FL, and Atlanta also looks to take a direct hit, altho by then Irma won't be catastrophic, merely damaging.

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Pity would be no more,
If we did not MAKE men poor - William Blake

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So which weatherguessers guessed better?

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Originally posted by Wishimay:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
So which weatherguessers guessed better?

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Well, it's still going to hit Miami. The storm is about 220 miles across and the bottom width of Florida is about 120. The fact that the eye isn't hitting Miami won't make much of a difference...they will still get the rain. They will still flood. Probably still get 100 mph winds, at least.

I read today that all hurricanes once they get a certain distance from the equator will turn, a little like the swirling in a toilet.

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Originally posted by second:
Most of the houses in southern Florida weren’t built to today’s hurricane codes. And Hurricane Irma has a lot more stuff to destroy than Hurricane Andrew did 25 years ago.

After Andrew destroyed more than 125,000 of Florida’s homes in 1992, state authorities realized that structures needed to be built stronger. Since 1994, southern Florida homes have had to meet new requirements that ensure they withstand the winds and flooding risks of at least a category 3 hurricane. More sweeping statewide legislation was added in 2001.

In what will be the greatest test of the new homes’ strength, Hurricane Irma, expected to be the strongest hurricane since Andrew, is projected to hit Florida early Sunday morning. But since these regulations only apply to buildings constructed since the law took effect, a majority of southern Florida homes may not be equipped to handle Irma’s havoc.

Less than 28% percent of homes in Miami-Dade county have been built to the 1994 codes, according to the 2015 American Community Survey. The rest of the homes there are old stock, which may, or may not, be strong enough to withstand the storm.

If St. Martin and other Caribbean islands, which are just assessing the destruction as Irma leaves their shores, show any indication of the hurricane’s strength, aluminum mobile homes reinforced with plywood don’t stand a chance. Some islands saw 20-30% of structures totally destroyed. The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, has said 95% of structures were damaged in some way.

https://qz.com/1073551

The Joss Whedon script for Serenity, where Wash lives, is Serenity-190pages.pdf at www.mediafire.com/folder/1uwh75oa407q8/Firefly

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Originally posted by second:
Most of the houses in southern Florida weren’t built to today’s hurricane codes. And Hurricane Irma has a lot more stuff to destroy than Hurricane Andrew did 25 years ago.

After Andrew destroyed more than 125,000 of Florida’s homes in 1992, state authorities realized that structures needed to be built stronger. Since 1994, southern Florida homes have had to meet new requirements that ensure they withstand the winds and flooding risks of at least a category 3 hurricane. More sweeping statewide legislation was added in 2001.

In what will be the greatest test of the new homes’ strength, Hurricane Irma, expected to be the strongest hurricane since Andrew, is projected to hit Florida early Sunday morning. But since these regulations only apply to buildings constructed since the law took effect, a majority of southern Florida homes may not be equipped to handle Irma’s havoc.

Less than 28% percent of homes in Miami-Dade county have been built to the 1994 codes, according to the 2015 American Community Survey. The rest of the homes there are old stock, which may, or may not, be strong enough to withstand the storm.

If St. Martin and other Caribbean islands, which are just assessing the destruction as Irma leaves their shores, show any indication of the hurricane’s strength, aluminum mobile homes reinforced with plywood don’t stand a chance. Some islands saw 20-30% of structures totally destroyed. The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, has said 95% of structures were damaged in some way.

https://qz.com/1073551

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:

how many more homes now than 25 years ago?

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Originally posted by second:

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Originally posted by JEWELSTAITEFAN:
how many more homes now than 25 years ago?

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Don't know, but a 2017 storm surge analysis reports just under 2.8 million homes at risk of damage in Florida.

www.insurancejournal.com/blogs/corelogic/2017/06/06/452784.htm

For the whole U.S.A. there are 5.9 million homes at risk of storm surge damage that have a total reconstruction cost value of more than $1.5 Trillion. Call it $250,000 per house. If the builders spend a little extra money to raise the house when it was first built, then the cost to rebuild would be about zero, but Americans prefer the federal government to bail them out after a catastrophe rather than paying so there never is a catastrophe. Why do something significant ahead of time when there are all those great TV shows Americans would rather be watching, saving their brains from thinking about uninteresting stuff like preventing disasters? Let government, God and Luck take care of it.

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