Who'll stop the rain? by AaronAgassi

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Who'll stop the rain?

POSTED BY: AARONAGASSI
UPDATED: Sunday, September 11, 2005 12:16
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Friday, September 9, 2005 6:37 PM

"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely only after they have exhausted all other alternatives."
--Abba Eban

So much for sweet reason! Because the best and most obvious solutions have been ignored utterly within the beltway, and by all political affiliations alike! Here is what should the political stump speech for Florida, reflecting true responsibility and ingenuity:

Good people of Florida, there has been enough suffering. Together let us put an end to those terrible hurricanes!

Questions?

Beyond adequate funding for implementation of the inexcusably long delayed crucial improvements and upgrades to the levees, floodgates and pumping stations of New Orleans, not to mention the return of the Florida National Guard from Iraq, our plan for national and global climate repair, consists of three additional vital points:

Firstly, there is the urgent restoration of the Thermohaline, the Arctic deep cold dense salty current which cools the costal waters. Because it is the warm moist rising air from the sea that spawns and feeds ever greater and more numerous tropical storms and hurricanes, not to mention over heating and killing the fragile living coral reefs functioning as a natural breakwater as well as actually increasing population of the Crown of Thorns starfish which eat the coral.

As it turns out, the refrigerating effectiveness of the Thermohaline can be restored, fed back into normal health and perhaps even further improved, by the simple return of salt to the ocean at strategic times and locations. Salting the surface ocean water will thereby make it more dense, heavier, and cause it to sink, cool in the dark depths, and then add to and invigorate the waning Thermohaline, to once again more effectively cool the costal waters and dampen the spawning of tropical storms and hurricanes from the sultry rising moisture. Clearly, a crash program of feasibility study and testing for quickest possible implementation is already long overdue.

The second part of the problem is, of course, is global warming of the atmosphere. My fellow Americans, let us deal with global warming the American way. We will act unilaterally and preemptively! Let us set and attain a goal of reducing the atmospheric percentage of greenhouse carbon gasses in order to lower global warming once and for all.

All that is required is adequate carbon sinks. Carbon sinks are any plant life that binds and incorporates carbon gasses as it grows. And the most efficient carbon sinks for the most cost effective allocation of land and other resources, is hydroponics.

Food and all manner of useful products and materials can be produced by hydroponics, to actually profit from significant and much needed economic growth and recovery, while actually reducing greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere as a happy byproduct.

Of course, a major danger of global warming comes from destitute grinding poverty and subsistence farming in Latin America, the slashing and burning of the Amazon jungles. And it is this looming threat to the lungs of the Earth, which is to be addressed by the third point of our program to stop the hurricanes, responsible positive intervention to aid destitute Latin American subsistence farmers, change their practices and actually heal the Amazon jungles, the lungs of the Earth, while ultimate disaster may still be averted.

Subsistence farmers slash and burn their way, advancing into the old growth of the Amazon jungles, for new farm land as the lands they have already slashed and burned for farm land become useless and depleted.

Now, as it turns out, the reason that the jungle doesn't simply re-grow over the abandoned farmland all on it's own, is because the small animals that eat the jungle fruit and then excrete the seeds, will not venture into the clearing. But, amazingly, by simply spreading the appropriate manure, fresh jungle can be restored on hither to scorched, depleted and bare soil, within a scant three years!

If only the destitute Latin American subsistence farmers can be helped and enlisted to fertilize and restore the jungle over their own spent farm lands, they can rotate the soil, slash and burn the same areas instead and thereby slow their advance ever deeper into the old jungle growth, in order to heal rather than destroy the vital tropical rain forests, as a stipulation for vital assistance and education in better feeding themselves in the process.

By an intensive program of these latter three points, we can actually stop these terrible hurricanes and end our suffering! Good people of Florida, shall we only talk about the weather and lament, or isn't it high time we did something about it?

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 2:27 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

As a person who grew up in South Florida, I have to ask...

Are you seriously speaking of stopping hurricanes? I mean, global weather management with the aim of ending the hurricane menace?

Because if you are, I'm not sure that's a good idea.

Hurricanes have been around a lot longer than modern man. They are a natural part of the ecosystem.

You don't fight nature on that kind of scale. You live with it. You build a house that doesn't blow over, and you stock food and water.

Now, there is a real argument to be made for proper drainage, building code adjustments, and being careful what you build on the beach.

Weather control just seems a little 'evil mastermind' to me.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 3:30 AM

CITIZEN

It reads that AARONAGASSI is actually suggesting returning the Hurrican strangth and frequency back to their natural levels by trying to undo some of the enviromental damage MAN has done.

As a side note:
I really don't think we can effect the worlds weather to any great deal, but we maybe able to effect it just enough to destroy us and our civilisation. But hey, why protect the climate, the people in power will have made their millions and be long dead before that happens, so who gives a

.

Zen Buddhist to the Hotdog Vendor:
"Make me one with everything."

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 6:01 AM

AARONAGASSI

ANTHONYT, CITIZEN interprets my intention correctly.

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 7:49 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Do we have any information suggesting that hurricane strength and frequency are abnormal at the moment?

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 8:03 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

This is an essay I was able to find on the topic:

--Anthony

Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades
(Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 1697-1700,1996)

Christopher W. Landsea 1 and Neville Nicholls
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria Australia

William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Lixion A. Avila
National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida, USA

Abstract
There is concern that the enhanced greenhouse effect may be affecting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones. The North Atlantic basin offers a reliable, long-term record of tropical cyclone activity, though it may not be representative of tropical cyclones throughout the rest of the tropics. The most recent years of 1991 through 1994 have experienced the quietest tropical cyclone activity on record in terms of frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes. This was followed by the 1995 hurricane season, one of the busiest in the past 50 years. Despite 1995's activity, a long-term (five decade) downward trend continues to be evident primarily in the frequency of intense hurricanes. In addition, the mean maximum intensity (i.e., averaged over all cyclones in a season) has decreased, while the maximum intensity attained by the strongest hurricane each year has not shown a significant change.

1 Introduction
Two hypothesized impacts of anthropogenic climate change due to increasing amounts of "greenhouse" gases that may occur [Houghton et al., 1900] are increased tropical sea surface temperatures (moderate confidence) and increased tropical rainfall associated with a slightly stronger inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) (moderate/low confidence). Because of these possible changes, there have been many suggestions based upon global circulation and theoretical modeling studies that increases may occur in tropical cyclone frequency [AMS Council and UCAR Board of Trustees, 1988;Houghton et al; 1990; Ryan et al; 1992; Haarsma et al; 1993], area of occurrence [Houghton et al; 1990; Ryan et al; 1992] ,], mean intensity [AMS Council and UCAR Board of Trustees, 1988; Haarsma et al; 1993] , and maximum intensity [Emanuel, 1987; AMS Council and UCAR Board of Trustees, 1988; Houghton et al., 1990; Haarsma et al; 1993; Bengtsson et al., 1994] . In contrast, there have been some conclusions that decreases in frequency may result [Broccoli and Manabe, 1990; Bengtsson et al., 1994] and that any man-made changes in tropical cyclones will likely be "swamped by natural variability" [Lighthill et al., 1994] . One report [ Leggett, 1994] has suggested that increased tropical cyclone incidence and severity have already taken place, but provided no quantitative evidence. Indeed, so pervasive is this idea that even the reported that even the U.S. Senatorial Bipartisan Task Force Force on Funding Diaster Relief [1995] reported that "hurricanes...have become increasingly frequent and severe over the last four decades as climatic conditions have changed in the tropics." It is essential with such suggestions and pronouncements that there be a thorough analysis of what the climate record actually shows. This report provides such an analysis of the trends in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and intensity.

2 Five decade long trends
Tropical cyclone is the generic term which comprises hurricanes of the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, typhoons of the Northwest Pacific, and cyclones of the Indian and Southwest Pacific. Most tropical cyclone basins have a very limited period (i.e. since the late 1960s) of reliable records to analyze for trends. However, the Atlantic basin, including the North Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, has an accurate five decade long record of storms due to the use of aircraft reconnaissance [Neumann et al., 1993; Landsea, 1993] . It is this dataset that is examined for recent changes of tropical storminess and for multi-decadal trends of frequency and intensity. This is not to suggest that the Atlantic basin is necessarily representative of global activity, but that it is useful for long-term analysis because of the unique reliable record of length.

On average, intense hurricanes (Atlantic basin tropical cyclones of category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [ Simpson, 1974] with sustained near-surface winds of at least 50 ms-1) have occurred at a rate of 2.2 times per year since aircraft reconnaissance began in 1944. Routine aircraft monitoring of the Atlantic basin has made it likely that even weak, short lived tropical cyclones have been detected , [Neumann et al., 1993] , though a small overestimation on the order of 2.5 to 5 ms-1 of the intensity of strong hurricanes during the 1940s through the 1960s has been noted [Landsea, 1993] . Figure 1 is a time series of the numbers of intense hurricanes and the total number of Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1944 with the small overestimation bias removed. Intense hurricanes have shown a strong downward trend (-0.32 intense hurricanes per year per decade) significant at the 2% level, continuing the trend noted in Landsea [1993] .

A large decrease in the incidence of intense hurricanes may seem surprising given the notoriety that strong hurricanes such as Hugo (1989) and Andrew (1992) have achieved with the incredible destruction they caused - $8 billion and $25 billion U.S. damage, respectively. A large portion of this immense toll is due to the property development and population increases along the U.S. coastal regions. As an example, southeast Florida including metropolitan Miami went 42 years (1950 to 1992) between strikes by intense hurricanes. During that time, the population increased by more than 600%[Landsea, 1993] . With no change of intense hurricane activity (or even a decrease as documented here), total property damage is likely to increase [Pielke, 1995] . Thus extreme caution is urged in the utilization of hurricane-related damage as a proxy for trends in hurricane incidence, given the numerous confounding societal factors.

However, as also seen in Fig. 1, the total number of tropical cyclones - including all hurricanes, tropical storms, and subtropical storms - has shown a much weaker and insignificant decrease. The number of weaker cyclones (tropical storms, subtropical storms, and those hurricanes which reach only Saffir-Simpson category 1 or 2) has actually slightly increased, although not significantly.

Time series in Fig. 2 show the mean peak intensities reached by all cyclones in each year and the maximum intensity reached by the most intense hurricane of the year. These results indicate that the mean intensity, which averages near 39 ms-1, has decreased (-0.81 ms-1 per decade, significant at the 5% level). This is not surprising, given that the numbers of intense hurricanes has been declining, but not the total number of cyclones. The maximum intensity reached each year, however, has not exhibited any significant downward trend.

3 Record quiescent conditions: 1991-1994
The years 1991 through 1994 have been remarkably inactive. These four years averaged only 7.5 cyclones of at least tropical or subtropical storm strength, only 3.8 hurricanes, and only 1.0 intense hurricanes, all of which are the lowest frequencies for any four consecutive year period on record since reliable records began (i.e. 1944). (For comparison, the long term - 1944 to 1995 - averages are 9.8, 5.7, and 2.2, respectively.) However, the mean and maximum intensities, while being quite low, have not been unprecedented due to the occurrence of hurricane Andrew and two other relatively strong hurricanes in 1992 [Mayfield et al., 1994] .
Figure 3 demonstrates the differences in tropical cyclone activity between the years 1991 through 1994 versus that of the period 1987 through 1990, which experienced near average tropical cyclone conditions. Only one hurricane formed in the deep tropics, equatorward of 25°N excluding the entire Gulf of Mexico, in the latter years compared with 11 during 1987 through 1990 and 10.4 occurring during an average four year period. Note that, in contrast, the cyclone activity north of 25°N including the entire Gulf of Mexico had shown near average conditions: 14 hurricanes from 1991 through 1994, 12 from 1987 through 1990, and 12.4 during an average four year period. Since 1991, the cyclones equatorward of 25°N were all spawned by African easterly waves [Avila and Pasch, 1995] , while the majority of those poleward of 25°N had their genesis in non-tropical wave mechanisms.

This lack of low latitude hurricane activity had allowed the Caribbean Sea and the surrounding countries to remain hurricane-free for five consecutive (1990-1994) years, which is unprecedented since the turn of the century. During this period, a larger than usual number of tropical storms in the deep tropics failed to intensify further. These storms had the potential for developing to hurricane strength but were disrupted by strong tropospheric vertical wind shear (which advects away the central convection necessary for maintenance and development of the tropical cyclone) [e.g., Gray, 1968; DeMaria et al., 1993] .

The drop in the numbers of low latitude hurricanes is related to changes in the circulation of the troposphere over the tropical Atlantic. These four years have seen the combination of numerous El Niño episodes (1991/92, 1993, and 1994/95) and continuing drought conditions in the African West Sahel (the driest quintile - within the driest 20% of occurrences - was reported in 1991 and 1992, dry quintile - within the next 20% of occurrences - in 1993, and neutral quintile - within the middle 20% of occurrences - in 1994). Both of these factors have been shown [ Gray, 1990; Landsea and Gray, 1992] to increase the tropospheric vertical shear by accelerating both the low level tradewind easterlies and the upper tropospheric westerlies over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. In addition, the August to October sea level pressures over the Caribbean Sea has also been much higher than average (+0.8 mb - higher than any other four year period), suggesting a weaker and/or equatorially depressed ITCZ. These higher than normal pressures have come in conjunction with slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures (a couple tenth's of a degree) in the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic Ocean, though these slight temperature changes are secondary to the large atmospheric circulation variations that have been observed. While these features appear to be responsible for the lack of low latitude hurricanes, the question remains as to what is responsible for the recurring El Niño events, the long-running drought in the Sahel, the very high pressures over the Caribbean, and the slightly cooler than average sea surface temperatures. It has been hypothesized that they may be due to a weakened North Atlantic deep water formation and resultant thermohaline circulation[Landsea et al., 1994] .

4 1995: A near record active season
The quiet conditions of the previous four years have been, at least temporarily, ended with the near record season of 1995. This year saw 19 tropical storms and hurricanes, 11 of which reached hurricane status, and five of those obtained at least 50 ms-1 sustained winds of the intense hurricanes. Those numbers are the largest since 1933, 1969, and 1964, respectively. As seen in the bottom panel of Fig. 3 , seven of the 11 hurricanes reached hurricane status while in the deep tropics, south of 25°N - compared with just one total in the previous four years. The environmental conditions, in strong contrast to the previous years, included an end to the El Niño events, lower sea level pressures, higher than average sea surface temperatures, and extremely low vertical wind shear. At least for 1995, the tropical Atlantic has returned to the favorable conditions for tropical cyclone activity that was previously seen in the late 1940s to late 1960s.

5 Conclusions
In summary, contrary to many expectations that globally tropical cyclones may be becoming more frequent and/or more intense due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, regionally the Atlantic basin has in recent decades seen a significant trend of fewer intense hurricanes and weaker cyclones overall. In addition, the maximum intensity reached in each year has shown no appreciable change. These trends have been accentuated in recent hurricane seasons - 1991 to 1994 - with the lowest frequencies recorded of tropical storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes in the 50 year period of accurate counts. These decreases have primarily been manifested in the deep tropical latitudes (i.e. equatorward of 25°N excluding all of the Gulf of Mexico) and the countries surrounding the Caribbean Sea have particularly benefited as five years with no hurricanes in the region is the longest hurricane-free span since the turn of the century.

However, 1995 has, at least temporarily, heralded the return of Atlantic basin hurricanes. Most of the regional and global factors which previous research has shown to be related to active Atlantic hurricane seasons were present during 1995. It is possible that this sharp increase of activity was a consequence of an increase in the strength of the oceanic thermohaline circulation. It will likely take several more years before it can be established whether 1995 was simply a single year anomaly in continued quiet conditions or whether it was the beginning of a regime of active hurricane seasons.

Acknowledgments
Financial support for the lead author was provided by the Model Evaluation for Climate Assessment and Department of Environment, Sports and Territories National Greenhouse Advisory Committee. Helpful comments of the manuscript were provided by P. Fitzpatrick, A. Henderson-Sellers, N. Holbrook, G. Holland, J. Knaff, G. Kubat, R. Pielke, Jr., R. Pielke, Sr., L. Shapiro, and J. Sheaffer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

References
American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conncil and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Board of Trustees; The changing atmosphere - challenges and opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69; 14341440, 1988.

Avila; L. A.; and R. J. Pasch, Atlantic tropical systems of 1993. Mon. Weath. Rev., 123, 887-896, 1995.

Bengtsson, L., M. Botzet and M. Esch, Will greenhouse gas induced warming over the next 50 years lead to a high-frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes? Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie Report No. 139, Hamburg, 1994.

Bipartisan Task Force on Funding Disaster Relief, Federal disaster assistance. Report of the Senate Force on Funding Disaster Relief, Document 104-4, United States Senate, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, 1995.

Broccoli, A. J., and S. Manabe; Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate? Geophys. Res. Letters, 17 1917-1920 1990.

DeMaria, M., J. Baik, and J. Kaplan, Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1133-1147; 1993.

Emanuel; K. A., The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature, 326, 483-485; 1987.

Haarsms; R. J.; J. F. B. Mitchell and C. A. Senior; Tropica disturbances in a GCM. Clim. Dyn., 8; 247-257 1993.

Gray; W. M., A global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Weath. Rev., 96, 669-700, 1968.

Gray; W. M., Strong association between West African rainfall and U.S. Landfall of intense hurricanes. Science,249 1251-1256, 1990.

Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephramus; Eds. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press New York; 1990.

Landesa, C. W., A Climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes. Mon. Weath. Rev., 121; 1703-1713; 1993.

Landsea, C. W., and W. M. Gray, The strong association between Western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 5 435-453;1992.

Landsea; C. W., W. M. Gray, P. W Mielke; Jr. and K. J. Berry, Seasonal forecasting of Atlantic hurricane activity. Weather, 49, 273-284, 1994.

Leggett; J., Ed.; The Climatic Time Bomb, Greenpeace International Amsterdam, 1994.

Lighthill; J.; G. Holland; W. Gray; C. Landsea; G. Creig; J. Evans; Y. Kurikara; and C. Guard, Global climate change and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75 2147-2157, 1994.

Mayfield; M.; L. A. Avila and E. N. Rappaport; Atlantic hurricane season of 1992. Mon. Weath. Rev., 122; 517-538, 1994.

Neumann, C. J. B. R. Jarvinen C. J. McAdie and J. D. Elms; Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1998, National Climatic Data Center in cooperation with the National Hurricane Center; Coral Gables; FL, 1993.

Pielke; Jr., R. A., Hurricane Andrew in South Florida: Mesoscale Weather and societal responses, Environmental & Societal Impacts Group; NCAR Report; Boulder; CO; 1995.

Ryan; B. F., I. G. Watterson and J. L. Evans; Tropical cyclone frequencies inferred from Gray's yearly genesis parameter: Validation of GCM tropical climates. Geophys. Res. Letters, 19, 1831-1834; 1992.

Simpson; R. H., The hurricane disaster-potential scale. Weatherwise, 27, 169 & 186; 1974.

Now at NOAA AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, USA as a NOAA Post-Doctorate Fellow in Climate and Global Change.

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 1:17 PM

AARONAGASSI

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation Thermohaline circulation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/WorldNF.asp?ArticleID=181086 Hurricane fuels global warming storm

http://www4.nationalacademies.org/onpi/webextra.nsf/web/climate?OpenDo
cument A Closer Look at Global Warming

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming Global warming - Wikipedia

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 2:25 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

"The hurricane catastrophe in the United States should be a wake-up call for all of us."

Mr. Agassi,

This is the kind of statement that is the sensationalistic kind of nonsense that anyone can use for anything. It appears in the articles you referred to.

The hurricane catastrophe in the United States should indeed be a wake-up call. But it is a wake-up call that has nothing to do with global warming.

And mind you, I am not saying that global warming is not an issue. Not at all. But to use the ravaging of a hurricane as evidence that global warming is bad is akin to using the freezing of a homeless man to prove that winters are evil.

Hurricanes are a fact of life. They have been here since before we have been here. They have struck land and exacted cruel and terrible damage throughout history.

The Hurricane Katrina disaster, or any other disaster caused by a Hurricane, has very little to do with climactic trends and very much to do with the stupidity of man. I am not speaking of a stupidity that spans centuries of greenhouse gasses. I am speaking of a stupidity that spans the building and maintenance of a city within our own lifetimes.

When Andrew ravaged South Florida, we did not point at the sky and say, "Ye foul global warming. Were it not for ye, we would have been safe." To do so would have been rediculous. Hurricanes such as Andrew and Katrina have ALWAYS EXISTED and they will continue to strike our nation.

No, we pointed fingers at ourselves and said,

"If we had built structures in a different fashion, they could have weathered this storm."

And, "If we had better drainage, there would be less flooding."

And now with Katrina, we can add, "If we choose to live in a bowl, we had best invest the time, effort, and resources necessary to A) Ensure that the levy is well built and B) Evacuate the region adequately before a storm."

By all means, crusade against global warming. But do not blame New Orleans on global warming. Not on greenhouse gasses. Not on centuries of ecological misconduct. Blame it on very identifiable and concrete causes, right under our noses, that do not need a hundred years of ecological debate to prove.

The New Orleans disaster was preventable. Not by eliminating hurricanes, or changing the weather. It was preventable by adjusting our reaction and anticipation of the weather which has always existed, and will always exist.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 4:47 PM

AARONAGASSI

Anthony, you come across as disconnected as the government itself! You impugn my motives nonsensically, which is entirely irrelevant. The truth is that I advocate specific measures which you do not address at all to problems that you barely acknowledge, Anthony.

No, I do not assert value judgments from ordinary circumstances, however tragic. Indeed, nor do I actually argue any conclusion from any premise at all, save in my simple analysis of the natural mechanisms at work, and further, as to how the remedies I suggest would actually improve climate and comfortable survival for us human beings on this planet by lowering the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, most particularly off the Florida coast although the same principles apply around the world.

Colder waters and less atmospheric carbon means fewer and less intense hurricanes. Salt conveyance is key to water temperature, hydroponics is best carbon sink and jungle animal manure and positive intervention for subsistence farmers are key to maintaining the Amazon jungle, the lungs of the Earth, as a renewable resource.

All piecemeal engineering, couldn't be less ideological. No virtuous sacrifices involved! A profitable win-win proposition all around.

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 6:56 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Dear Mr. Agassi,

There are decent and good reasons to prevent the continuing pollution of our world. There are real concerns involved in the possibility of global warming. There are excellent ends to be found in restoring and maintaining the jungles and rain forests of the Earth.

"Together let us put an end to those terrible hurricanes!"

This isn't one of them.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 7:44 PM

AARONAGASSI

Anthony, are you actually suggesting that reducing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, or preventing the increasing in frequency and intensity of hurricanes, would not be a desirable outcome?

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 7:59 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Mr Agassi,

You seem to be presenting the point of view that hurricanes are something to be avoided.

Barring any scientific evidence to the contrary, I'm of the opinion that something which occurs and has been occuring naturally since the dawn of man may actually be a necessary part of our ecosystem.

I wouldn't want to be in the eye of a hurricane, path of a tornado, epicentre of an earthquake, area of a forest fire, or valley beneath a volcano.

However, I do acknowledge that these things, which exist independantly of human beings, may actually be beneficial to the environment.

I am reminded of the problem of non-indiginous plants in South Florida, clogging up the canals. To which a water creature is imported to devour the plants. To which a predatory fish must be found to devour the creature. To which a limiting factor must be found to arrest the spread of the predatory fish.

Clean up the environment, Mr. Agassi. Just don't do it to stop the hurricane. The hurricane belongs here. Meddling in the wrong direction may have unintended effects. Salting the oceans to change their temperature may do more than just tweak the intensity of hurricanes. You are speaking of provoking wide-scale changes to the environment. It may achieve your end of reducing the 'Hurricane Menace' but it may do other things as well.

Clean up the environment. Leave the Hurricanes alone.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 8:24 PM

AARONAGASSI

Stop putting word in my mouth, Anthony. I never actually intended to suggest the complete elimination of all hurricanes. And as for unforeseen consequences, at best that is exactly what we face already, by doing nothing differently.

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 8:38 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

"Together let us put an end to those terrible hurricanes!"

I never intended to put words in your mouth, Mr. Agassi. Perhaps you were using hyperbole to make a point.

Let me make my own point.

While doing nothing to a dying patient is certainly bad, bleeding him as a treatment is equally bad.

You have advocated restoring the rain forest, using more efficient farming, and reducing damaging emissions. Bravo.

You have also advocated salting the oceans in an attempt to reduce their temperature. Boo.

Further, you have advocated these steps to reduce hurricanes. Boo.

Let me make a contemporary analogy for you that may seem more real and practical:

Fight Terrorism? Bravo!

Suspend civil liberties to fight Terrorism? Boo.

Suspend civil liberties to fight Terrorism so that we can gain lucrative positions in the petroleum industry? Double Boo.

Not every action is preferable to doing nothing. Not every means is worthy of the end.

I do not support certain details of your plan, and I do not support its stated objective.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 8:57 PM

AARONAGASSI

Mia culpa, hyperbole. But I am hardly suggesting bleeding the patient. Moreover, you have argued not one whit in support of any complaint that my suggested measures would not work just as advertised, nor to predict any adverse consequence, either.

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 9:17 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Mr. Agassi,

I am hardly qualified to assert a specific negative impact from salting the oceans to reduce their temperature. I must have left my PHD in ecology in my other pants.

Nor can I find any studies that even address the concern.

And until I am presented with studies that explore the possible ramifications of doing so, I'll be rather unlikely to accept it as a prudent measure.

When I was in High School, I had a Science teacher. He was a wise man, and he taught me something very important.

He told me that there had been a theory proposed about setting up vast arrays of devices in the ocean which converted wave energy into electricity. The idea behind this was that wave energy was free kinetic energy that was there for the taking. Just like sunlight, it is a clean energy that exists in abundance all around us.

There were many reasons offered by many scientists and engineers about why wave energy might be difficult to harness or why the wave devices might be impractical to build. They were all valid to some degree.

What no one considered, and this was frightening, was about the nature of energy itself. Wave energy exists as a component of our Oceans. That energy may seem wasted to us, but in fact it may be doing something. If we take the wave energy out of the water, what ramifications could that have on our ecosystem? When you steal the kinetic energy from water off the Florida coast, what does that mean for harbors in Europe during the Winter?

No one considered it. No one asked. To paraphrase a popular science fiction movie and book: Always with humans it is "Can we do this thing?" or "How can we accomplish this thing?" and almost never is it "Should we do this thing?"

Our Oceans have a certain amount of salt. Our Oceans are at a certain temperature.

You want to dump enough salt on them to influence their temperature on a massive scale.

I think it is reasonable to want a series of studies conducted to examine all possible ramifications of that.

In this case, it is the Ocean which is innocent until proven guilty. You have to prove the validity and safety of your argument, not vice versa.

To put it to you with hyperbole, I'm not prepared to turn the Atlantic Ocean into the Red Sea just because you want to slow down some hurricanes.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Saturday, September 10, 2005 10:03 PM

AARONAGASSI

I have explained the mechanics of the proposed salt conveyance enhancement, as best as the notion was expressed to me. Would you support my call for a feasibility study?

And no, nothing like the Dead Sea! Besides, I doubt enough salt is available for that. Must you so exaggerate, Anthony?

And what of the rest of my proposal?

Incidentally, wave turbines do already exist. But there'd have to be very many of them indeed, to actually quiet the oceans. Similarly, just imagine, how many windmills would it take to actually still the winds!

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Sunday, September 11, 2005 7:44 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Mr. Agassi,

I have repeatedly endorsed your more common-sense proposals for Hydroponics and re-forestation.

It is the idea of salting the seas that has primarily bothered me, followed by the stated purpose of reducing hurricanes.

As for a feasibility study, I have also (you may note above) stated that a great deal of research would have to be done on the effects of such a procedure before I would think of endorsing it. The feasibility study would have to focus not only on "Can we do it?" but also "What happens if we do it?"

You jest at the wave machine concerns. We would really have to have a lot of wave machines to steal the energy from the Oceans. Indeed. We would also need a lot of wave machines to meet the electrical needs of the United States, which was the purpose of such a device. The concern isn't stilling the Oceans, Mr. Agassi, but rather making them slightly quieter. What effect would that have?

You want to dump enough salt on the sea to change the temperature of the Ocean. I will retort with your own words:

It would take a lot of salt to change the temperature of the Ocean.

I can imagine how many windmills it would take to still the wind. I can imagine how many wave generators it would take to still the Ocean.

How much salt would it take to cool the Oceans? And once the salt disperses, how much more salt would it take? For how many decades?

What would the effect on sea life be in the area where this re-conveyence occurs? What is the effect of the additional salt? The cooler temperatures created?

Have you really given the implications any thought?

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Sunday, September 11, 2005 9:21 AM

AARONAGASSI

I certainly agree that any proper feasibility study ought to address consequences. That rather is the point.

But why are you actually against if not reducing frequency and intensity of hurricanes, at least preventing the increase thereof? Unintended and unforeseen consequence apply to everything, especially including changing nothing and continuing exactly as we are.

Do answer my question in the terms in which I have asked it, Anthony.

As to wave turbines, by analogy to automotive breaks, they all take away the energy of momentum of the car, but the new ones in the hybrid cars capture energy from breaking as electricity. Likewise, a wave turbine, for it's effects upon oceanic currents, is like unto that of a breakwater, regardless that it captures any of the energy it expends from the ocean. That would be the logic by which to predict whatever impact over all. Again, much as with windmills in the atmosphere.

"It would take a lot of salt to change the temperature of the Ocean."

No, not so much, to scale, Anthony. Please reread my proposal and consider the mechanism at work, enhancement to the Thermohaline.

"What would the effect on sea life be in the area where this re-conveyence occurs? What is the effect of the additional salt? The cooler temperatures created?"

Again, Anthony, do reread! The effect of cooling would be to save the reefs that are now baking to death! The need is urgent. And the salt levels with in the sub oceanic current would, presumably, remain the same. Only the volume and strength of the current would be restored to it's former glory, in order to fully resume it's historic cooling function.

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Sunday, September 11, 2005 11:35 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

"But why are you actually against if not reducing frequency and intensity of hurricanes, at least preventing the increase thereof? Unintended and unforeseen consequence apply to everything, especially including changing nothing and continuing exactly as we are.

Do answer my question in the terms in which I have asked it, Anthony."

1) It is not conclusively proven that the frequency and intensity of hurricanes is increasing.

2) If the frequency and intensity of hurricanes is increasing, we do not know that it is not part of a natural cycle.

Given these two premises not yet firmly established, you already want to meddle with the functioning of hurricanes. For all we know, hurricanes may be a mechanism by which the ecology restores itself. Or there may be a natural cycle of increased and decreased activity. Or the sampling may be too small to detect any trends.

Between doing nothing to deter the hurricanes, and doing something without all the facts, I vote on doing nothing.

Now, if you want an advocate for more research, you've got it. I advocate research.

I do not advocate action at this time.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Sunday, September 11, 2005 12:16 PM

AARONAGASSI

Indeed, possibly the climactic changes are part of a natural cycle. After all, we have lived in an Interglacial, the Ice Age being the normal condition of the Earth. I respectfully submit, however, that none of this makes one iota of difference! Because both the consequences and the remedy remain exactly the same, regardless.

Indeed, another possibility is that increased solar activity is contributing to global warming. If that is true, then, in that case, it will be necessary to achieve a slightly lower level of atmospheric carbon than is ordinarily natural, in order to compensate and preserve a clement climate for the human species.

In summary, my policy would be, quite simply, to safeguard, to extend and to sustain the Interglacial into the foreseeable future.

And no matter what else, the greatest danger remains obliviousness to the limits of our understanding.

Indeed, as for any other considerations, we must weigh the risks of any possible action not only each in it's own right and in comparison each against one another, but also against the foreseeable consequences risked by inaction or by staying whatever the current course, a choice, any choice, being, indeed, a choice, even the default of status quo, for which we will be no less responsible or fatefully consequent. And yes, again, not only feasibility but impact of all options must be studied, and in an urgent hurry.

After all, for another example, the meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs was all one hundred percent natural! And it's only a matter of time for us, as well, unless we take appropriate measures of detection and deflection.

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