The Long Emergency (please read) by fredgiblet

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

The Long Emergency (please read)

POSTED BY: FREDGIBLET
UPDATED: Monday, August 14, 2006 12:52
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1848
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Thursday, August 10, 2006 11:32 AM

Technically this belongs in Real World Discussions but I feel that this should be read by more people than visit that board. It is long but important so please read it.

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency/

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 11:58 AM

ZZETTA13

FREDGIBLET, the powers that be won't be happy until they have 9/10 of the civilized world walking to a street corner to catch a bus because they can't afford the price of fuel to put in their cars. Nope that will be only for the rich.

Now that the pricetag on the worlds automotive power source is going up all things connected to it will. Which means the price of everything. I can see a time when all we do is go to work ( by way of a bus trip) and come home from work. I'm going to stop here.... because it's better that I do

One last thing. I'm not surprised by todays news headlines. The Evil in the world is getting worse.

Z

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 12:01 PM

FUTUREMRSFILLION

Fred

good article! Thanks for the link!

We are The Forsaken - We aim to burn! and we don't need no stinkin levels!

one of the Forsaken TM

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 12:07 PM

FREDGIBLET

Quote:
Originally posted by FutureMrsFIllion:
Fred

good article! Thanks for the link!

www.fark.com
Probably one of the most informative (and funny) sites on the web.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 12:16 PM

YINYANG

You were busy trying to get yourself lit on fire. It happens.

I haven't read it all the way through ('cause I'm sloooow); but, it's already really good. Thanks for sharing this!

---

Go to http://richlabonte.net/tvvote/ and vote Firefly!

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 12:20 PM

ODDSBODSKINS

h'mmm, interesting article that ^^

you know, am i the only one who kinda likes the idea of regressing to using horses to get around again? only problems would be power to keep up my net connection and, you know, long distance travel and similars, for which i must confess a fondness =S

well, okay, heating, hot showers, hot water, you know, and everything else i take for granted and struggle to get by without (cannot abide cold showers...when the hot waters on the blink, i do my best, but i reckon i must stink to high-heaven just from trying to jump in and out as quickly as possible once a day >.< ) maybe those would be drawbacks...

but horses would be good, yes horses would be good.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 1:22 PM

FELLOWTRAVELER

Good article.

If interested in more on oil (Hubbard's peak, pricing in Dollars vs. Euros, imperial foreign policy, etc...), check out "American Theocracy" by Kevin Phillips.

The dude is not a pinko or tree hugger and has conservative/republican credentials.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/067003486X/sr=8-1/qid=1155251435/ref=
pd_bbs_1/104-7046391-9575955?ie=UTF8

From Washington Post's Book World:

American Theocracy is three books in one. He argues that a "reckless dependency on shrinking oil supplies, a milieu of radicalized (and much too influential) religion, and a reliance on borrowed money . . . now constitute the three major perils to the United States of the twenty-first century."

His first worry is oil. "Over the last several hundred years each leading global economic power has ridden an emergent fuel resource into the pages of history," he notes, citing Britain's 19th-century reliance on the coal industry as an example. But such reliance can prove disastrous if that resource dries up, which Phillips believes will happen. Citing the more pessimistic of geologists' projections about declining global oil reserves, he argues that our dependence on oil has ushered in an era of "petro-imperialism" that spawned the war in Iraq.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 1:22 PM

FREDGIBLET

@ ODDSBODSKIN

May I make a suggestion? If you own a house or land right now, perhaps you might want to look into alternative energy. Putting solar panels on/around your house now will prevent your being caught in the rush when energy prices skyrocket. Additionally, if you get a beefy enough setup you might even try selling to your neighbors as the prices rise.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 1:24 PM

YINYANG

You were busy trying to get yourself lit on fire. It happens.

Yes, horses would be fabulous (after I learned how to ride, that is)!

---

Go to http://richlabonte.net/tvvote/ and vote Firefly!

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 1:40 PM

FELLOWTRAVELER

Quote:
Originally posted by yinyang:
Yes, horses would be fabulous (after I learned how to ride, that is)!

---

Go to http://richlabonte.net/tvvote/ and vote Firefly!

But I don't want to clean up the poop!

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 2:58 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

I find the article far too optimistic. One of the things I learned from Collapse is that when societies at the height of their technical prowess fail, they fail quickly and utterly because they stripped their environment of "easy" resources and their populations are far too large to support in any other fashion.

---------------------------------
Reality sucks. Especially when it contradicts our cherished ideas.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:10 PM

FREDGIBLET

I probably shouldnt have said it belonged in RWED, oh well.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:23 PM

KANEMAN

Quote:
Originally posted by zzetta13:
FREDGIBLET, the powers that be won't be happy until they have 9/10 of the civilized world walking to a street corner to catch a bus because they can't afford the price of fuel to put in their cars. Nope that will be only for the rich.

Now that the pricetag on the worlds automotive power source is going up all things connected to it will. Which means the price of everything. I can see a time when all we do is go to work ( by way of a bus trip) and come home from work. I'm going to stop here.... because it's better that I do

One last thing. I'm not surprised by todays news headlines. The Evil in the world is getting worse.

Z

Coke 10 cents..Gas 65 cents. Truth the price of soda has gone up faster than that of gas. So has movie admission and a lot of other things. Difference? A movie is still a movie....A soda is still a soda...We get better gas mileage for the buck........Look it up....

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:48 PM

FREDGIBLET

Quote:
Originally posted by kaneman:
A movie is still a movie....A soda is still a soda...

And neither of them are required for our lives to function...at all. The price of a movie is unimportant in this arguement because movies are luxuries. Oil is not a luxury, everything around you has been affected by oil at some point, food requires oil to grow (fertilizers) and be harvested (farm equipment), medical supplies require oil both for production (pharmaceuticals) and in their composition (plastics). Without oil we are going to be in serious trouble.

I have heard rumors of a new "super-fuel", Helium-3 I think it was, which is in abundant supply...on the far side of the moon. Even assuming it lives up to the hype, it can only provide electricity, not plastics. Our entire world is based on oil, when oil runs out our economies will collapse unless take drastic steps. The world as a whole and America in particular need to adapt to survive, and from what I know of the average American, they would rather ignore than adapt.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:53 PM

FREDGIBLET

Quote:
Originally posted by kaneman:
...We get better gas mileage for the buck........

When it was running my 1970 El Camino got around 18 mpg (if I was careful), my dad's truck, a 2003 Dodge Dakota? 20 mpg.

There is a difference between being able to get better fuel efficiency, and being willing. While the tide seems to be swinging against gas-guzzling monstrosities there are still far to many people who don't seem to understand that the choices they make affect far more than their percieved status among the other suburbanites.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:54 PM

ANTIMASON

i used to be a proponant of that theory..but ive since changed my mind.

i would argue that it is an artificial scarcity issue, and that the oil industry is in collaboration, along with the international banking institutions.

the oil companies dont have the motive to explore and excavate new oil, because as it is they determine, and intentionally manipulate prices. whos to know for sure how much oil is down there; but that no matter what the oil industry will do what is in its best interest to continue record profits.

almost like this whole issue of corroded pipelines in Alaska; werent we just hearing of record setting profits? yet they are not re-investing properly to insure stability, so something bad happens and poof! prices go up!

i think the whole situation is highly suspect. not that i dont want alternative energies to become common place, but i see this as a clever tactic to tax people as much as neccessary, meanwhile providing glimpses of this mirage in the desert of energy independance.

i know i run the risk of being the token conspiracy theorist, but thats my opinion based on my research into the NWO field. i hunted down this clip that further explains this view
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2005/120405peakoilscam.htm

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:56 PM

FREDGIBLET

Antimason

While I don't disagree with you on the possibility of any particular point, oil is still a finite resource and our economy is still completely and utterly under it's sway. So whether the scarcity is artificial or natural, the consequences are the same.

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 3:59 PM

FUTUREMRSFILLION

Oods

No, I long for that too. Lets all become amish and see if it takes

We are The Forsaken - We aim to burn! and we don't need no stinkin levels!

one of the Forsaken TM

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Thursday, August 10, 2006 11:40 PM

FREMDFIRMA

It's not the lack of fuel that's gonna hit us hardest, it's the lack of plastic.

Almost all plastics are petrol-base, and our society is practically built upon them, a serious threat most people do not see.

My personal vehicle, mind you, gets between 150-180 miles per gallon depending on conditions, which leads me to endless amusement as I pump a buck into it beside some fool in an SUV pumping $75.00USD into his tank.

It's a three-wheel custom Tomos-Pryor trike with cargo bed, built around a 1994 Tomos Sprint.

Fuel cost doesn't get me at the pump, it gets me at the supermarket, since increased fuel costs get stacked onto any good that is shipped by road or rail... so in spite any attempt I make to dodge the bullet, it still hits me - twice and thrice because I used to drive a cab for a livin, but gas prices are driving the smaller operators like me right out of the business.

-Frem

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Friday, August 11, 2006 12:11 AM

CITIZEN

Quote:
Originally posted by Oddsbodskins:
only problems would be power to keep up my net connection

What use is a net connection if all the servers and ISPs are offline?

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Friday, August 11, 2006 12:30 AM

CITIZEN

Quote:
Originally posted by antimason:
i would argue that it is an artificial scarcity issue, and that the oil industry is in collaboration, along with the international banking institutions.

the oil companies dont have the motive to explore and excavate new oil, because as it is they determine, and intentionally manipulate prices. whos to know for sure how much oil is down there; but that no matter what the oil industry will do what is in its best interest to continue record profits.

Doesn't quite fit the facts, the American Oil industry spent twice the amount of money in scouting for new Oil reserves than it found in potential profits in 2003 (I think it spent something like $8bn US and found $4bn US worth of oil). The Oil companies are merging like crazy, trying to maximise their profits? Why are Oil tankers being decommissioned faster than they are being built? Why have their been no new American Oil refineries built since the 1970's, when I might add America's domestic supply peaked, but America still needs refineries unless the Oil is running out.

If the Oil is in decline it's in the Oil companies’ best interests to let people think it's just big Oil propaganda, that way people keep going to the pump and paying while the price goes up, maximising big Oil profits while they can.

Why has British Petroleum become Beyond Petroleum and sunk so much of their assets into renewable/alternative fuel research? Simply they are preparing for the near future when they won't have any oil to trade any more.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Friday, August 11, 2006 4:15 AM

BIGDAMNNOBODY

Quote:

Originally posted by citizen:
Why have their been no new American Oil refineries built since the 1970's, when I might add America's domestic supply peaked, but America still needs refineries unless the Oil is running out.

It might have something to do with those pesky environmentalists.

It is a long and slightly biased article given the source, but an interesting read.

http://www.npra.org/news/testimony/20040512testimony.cfm

De-lurking to stir stuff up.

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Friday, August 11, 2006 5:27 AM

MAL4PREZ

I've been working in the margins of the oil industry since 1995 (including working for the companies) and I've seen a few talks about the future of world oil production. The most interesting was given by a university guy, not an oil company employee. This guy looked at a bunch of reserve forecasts done since the 1960s, and the funny thing is... they all forcast the same future production curve. A peak in 5-10 years, then tailing off. This curve has been moving along with us for the past 40 years, folks.

That is not to say that oil won't run out. Of course it will! It is to say that any forecast is based more in psychology than reality. It's generally oil company guys telling their bosses the safest thing they can - something between "OMG the oil's running out!" and "Don't worry, we got lots." I think the truth is that nobody really knows how much oil there is.

In the meantime, these forecasts work to frighten people, allowing higher prices and the political impetus to do things like invade the Middle East. You know how Saddam had all those fancy palaces he built with his oil profits? Where do suppose that money is going now, hmm?

OK, backing off.

One of the things I worked on is geophysical methods of finding oil. The focus of this kind of research in the 90s was characterizing known reservoirs rather than looking for new ones. This was in preparation of oil running out - we wanted to find ways of producing oil that is hard to get. ie really heavy oil that needs steam injection to make it thinner, or tight rock reservoirs that need to be artificially fractured so the oil will flow to the well, or deep water reservoirs in the Gulf. Point is, there's a lot of hard-to-get oil that we can get, but it requires new technology and will be expensive.

But it won't be gotten until the industry has no other choice. The oil industry is notoriously short-sighted. (I could give examples, but this is already too long!) Right now, the companies have merged and, for the most part, completely gotten rid of their research departments. They go to service companies like Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker-Atlas, who are really the ones who should be developing new methods.

But they don't need to right now! These companies are making money hand over fist without having to do anything new, so that's what they're doing (um - in general. There are exceptions.) They're just grabbing and letting the future take care of itself. And since the US president is their b**ch, they can do it freely.

I do like the article, by the way. I tend to forget exactly how much of what we have is reliant on oil. But I don't see a hard crash coming. I see a slow change to even more expensive oil, and the companies have no problem with this. They'll drag it out as long as possible. But, because I'm an optimist, I hope that we'll get a new administration that will give a crap about something more than making money for their buddies, and we'll start developing alternative energy sources so the oil companies no longer rule our lives and start wars to get at more oil...

Oops, getting all ranty again. Stopping now.

-----------------------------------------------
I'm the president. I don't need to listen.

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Friday, August 11, 2006 5:43 AM

CITIZEN

Well many wells have already gone over the curve, in the 1970's the US as a whole was producing 11 million barrels a day, now 5. It's consistent with the bell curve, and generally once you hit the bell curve it's down hill all the way.

You're damn right, we won't have a hard crash, we'll have a point where Oil production decreases but the Oil demand continues to increase, driving up prices, starting wars and making it impossible for most people to drive anywhere.

But we still have to develop and commercialise these alternatives, and really we should have started doing that years ago, once we pass peak oil it'll be too late.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Friday, August 11, 2006 9:45 AM

FREDGIBLET

Quote:
Originally posted by citizen:
What use is a net connection if all the servers and ISPs are offline?

Given the power of the internet I think it would be one of the last things to go. I think that if the oil collapse comes that the internet will become a very different place though. Prices would rise so subscription sites would become the norm, and independant sites would largely dissappear. Connections would becomes more expensive (as the cost of infrastructure rises), and people would decrease their use of recreational web browsing. But that's just a guess.

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Friday, August 11, 2006 10:08 AM

ANTIMASON

Citizen- i would argue that the reason they spent doubt scouting for oil reserves is because their motive is to seize supplies, and cap them to create artificial scarcity. this would explain why prices have doubled here in the US since the Iraq war, and yet we are in control of the Iraqis oil supplies. let me recommend this sound clip again to you as an alternative to this peak oil theory
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/april2005/120405peakoilscam.htm

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Friday, August 11, 2006 10:19 AM

CITIZEN

They didn't pay double to normal, they paid double to what Oil was found was worth, this is a clear indication that Oil is becoming harder to find.

More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Monday, August 14, 2006 12:52 PM

FELLOWTRAVELER

For anyone who is interested in oil and alternative energy, there is a pretty good doc on the DiscoveryTimes channel at 8 and 11 PM (Aug. 14).

It's "Addicted to Oil: Thomas L Friedman Reporting".

Friedman works for the "old grey lady" and is the author of the bestseller "The World is Flat".

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