REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Sometimes it helps to be clear.

POSTED BY: HERO
UPDATED: Thursday, April 5, 2007 04:16
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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 4:59 AM

HERO


Yesterday Blair said that the sailors-crisis needed to be resolved within 48 hours. Today Iran capitulated.

I suspect that the Iranians were quietly informed of plans to embargo Iranian ports or perhaps bomb the crap out of Iranian property...or both.

Either that or we've agreed to let them keep Pelosi. Thats a threat Iran could not ignore.

H


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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 6:03 AM

ERIC


Quote:

Originally posted by Hero:

I suspect that the Iranians were quietly informed of plans to embargo Iranian ports or perhaps bomb the crap out of Iranian property...or both.



I'm sure you're disappointed to no end that this ended peacefully without a fun war for you to watch on Fox, and if you need your dumbass macho man pissing match bullshit fantasies to justify diplomatic successes, that's fine, nobody cares. In reality meanwhile, it's more likely a quiet deal was struck to release some Iranians arrested in Iraq:


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070404/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_britain

Quote:

Iran has denied it seized the Britons to force the release of Iranians held in Iraq, and Britain has steadfastly insisted it would not negotiate for the sailors' freedom.

Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency said earlier Wednesday that an Iranian envoy would be allowed to meet with the five detained Iranians in Iraq but gave no further details.

A U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad said, however, that American authorities were still considering the request. The spokesman, Maj. Gen. William C. Caldwell, said an international Red Cross team, including one Iranian, had visited the prisoners but he did not say when.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told The Associated Press that the case of the five Iranians detained in Irbil, the capital of the Kurdish self-governing region in northern Iraq, had no connection with the British captives.

Zebari, a Kurd, said his government had been relaying Iranian requests for a meeting with the five detainees, but could not confirm the request had been approved.

In a commentary, the Iranian news agency said the movement on the Iranian prisoner issue was due in part to "the new American political and military appointments in Iraq."

The agency was referring to Gen. David Petraeus, who assumed command of U.S. forces in February, and Ryan Crocker, who began work as the new U.S. ambassador to Iraq last month.

U.S. troops detained the five Iranians on Jan. 11, accusing them of links to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard network that was supplying money and weapons to insurgents in Iraq.

Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said President Bush had approved the strategy of raiding Iranian targets in Iraq as part of efforts to confront the government in Tehran.

Iraqi Kurds, like the country's Shiites, maintain close ties with Shiite-dominated Iran, despite their warm relationship with the U.S. — and have been upset over the arrests in their own capital.

Iran denounced the raid and insisted that the five were diplomats who were engaged exclusively in consular work. The Iraqi government said they were arrested at an office that was supposed to become an Iranian consulate.

The British newspaper The Independent reported this week that the Irbil raid had escalated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and may have set the stage for the March 23 seizure of the British naval personnel.

Also Wednesday, a Kuwaiti newspaper quoted Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem as saying Damascus was also mediating the case of the 15 Britons.



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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 6:04 AM

ERIC


dbl

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 6:25 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT


from CNN.
Ahminijehad ( or whatever his name is) , held a press conference, and officially pardoned the 15 Brits. They're supposed to leave Tehran at 8 AM Thursday.

Don't juggle your geese until they're aboard the airplane, but it looks like it might be over.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 8:04 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by Eric:
In reality meanwhile, it's more likely a quiet deal was struck to release some Iranians arrested in Iraq:


Iranian diplomacy? Yeah right. Because Iran is so responsive to diplomacy.

Sure there's a quiet deal in place to soothe the Iranian pride. But the only reason they came to the table was that Britain and America were taking off their jackets and rolling up their sleeves getting ready to lay the smack down...so to speak.

H

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 8:48 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Washington Post

"Throughout, we have taken a measured approach, firm but calm, not negotiating but not confronting either," he (Blair) said.

Addressing "the Iranian people," Blair added: "We bear you no ill will. On the contrary, we respect Iran as an ancient civilization . . . and the disagreements that we have with your government we wish to resolve peacefully through dialogue. I hope, as I've always hoped, that in the future we are able to do so."

He thanked friends and allies in Europe, the U.N. Security Council and in the Middle East who had "played their part," but he did not elaborate.

In what U.S. and British authorities insisted was mere coincidence, an Iranian diplomat being held in Iraq was released on Tuesday.

-----------------------------

Agreed to talks with Iran and released prisoners. Firm. Very firm.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 9:11 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Very much like the Iranian hostage crisis of many years ago. And what did Iran get out of THAT? Why, merely a whole bunch of weapons.

And on a purely snarky note... because sometimes I just get fed up with being logical and reasonable ... I think this thread should be retitled "Sometimes it Pays to be Dense" with the follow-on because then I can believe whatever I'm told. Hero, I'm sure you have many times engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Sometimes you may have not gotten everyhting you wanted out of them, but you'll put on your "game face" anyway. Why would you think this is any different?

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 9:25 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Hero, I'm sure you have many times engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Sometimes you may have not gotten everyhting you wanted out of them, but you'll put on your "game face" anyway. Why would you think this is any different?


I don't disagree. But here's what Blair said publically:
Quote:


"The most important thing is to get the people back safe and sound and if they want to resolve this in a diplomatic way the door is open," Blair told Real Radio in Scotland. "The next 48 hours will be fairly critical."


Thats diplomatic speak for the gloves come off in 48 hours. The EU was clearly on board and even France had a carrier steaming towards the Gulf (although it was likely their intention to surrender to an Iranian fishing boat or perhaps an overly flirtacious amphibious mammal).

From what I've read it seems a blockade was being planned (at least a limited one against gasoline and military supplies). Such an action might need to involve air strikes on Iranian Silkworm missile batteries. Ask Argentina about modern war with Britain...

H

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 9:30 AM

CHRISISALL


This just sucks.
If those Brits were killed (and face it- they were not Americans, so what's the big deal for us) we would've had a perfect reason to start blasting!!!
Gorram Iranians played it too nice!
Crap!!!!

The Militaristic Chrisisall

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 9:31 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


EVERYONE huffed and puffed. We have no idea of the levels of Iranian military preparedness, but just because we didn't hear about it doesn't mean they were sitting on their arses waiting for the axe to fall.

Whatever important was done was behind the scenes. What Blair said to us and what Ahmadinajad (?) said to his people (Which of course we don't know either- it may have been equivalent chest-thumping) is purely for local consumption. NEVER pay attention to what a politician says. Just watch what they do.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 9:46 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


And what Blair did was agree to talk with Iran and give up a prisoner. There was more in the article about the US giving up Iranians it had captured to seal the deal.

So much of the three page article was blah blah blah. You really do have to pay attention to what was done. Though we have no idea of whatever secret deals a la Iran-Contra might have also been struck. In either case, it was clearly a negotiations.

Their position 'we don't negotiate with terrorists' is meant for home consumption. They will and obviously do.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 10:42 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Given how we got that prisoner, yeah, I think they were justified in asking for him back.

Go find out, you'll see what I mean.

Diplomatically, the allied forces handed the Iranians a soft-lob and they predictably smashed it back at us over the net.

Think about it, all they have to do is hold up pictures of these prisoners next to some of the more horrific pics from Gitmo - and who looks like the asshole here ?

We walked right into it like idiots.

We *need* some competent foreign policy folk, and we need em yesterday.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 11:36 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


Hi Frem,

I agree. I just think too many people really, really believe that macho-shithead swagger is what rules the world.

I took a cab home from the airport the other day and the driver talked about many of the same ideas you do. I didn't know YOU had a double somewhere ! I was ready to call him FremD just to see if he would react to the name.

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 11:54 AM

SOUPCATCHER


I'm partial to the phrase James Wolcott used today: premature wargasm.

"...Those ratcheting up the steely rhetoric (such as this poor fellow, hosting a premature wargasm in his pants: "I hope, by the time you read this, the destruction of Iran?s military infrastructure is underway") can not be cheered by the soft hand Britain displayed in this game of international poker..."
excerpted from http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/blogs/wolcott/2007/04/according_to_
my.html


Snarkalicious!

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Wednesday, April 4, 2007 12:03 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Well, I know we don't look it, but cabbies as a general rule are smart, crafty fellows - and with a general bent towards a dislike of our social heirarchies and rules, otherwise they'd be climbing the corporate ladder somewhere.

Sure, we get all types, but the ones that stay and do the job, once training, skill, and area knowledge blend into a codified form of what amounts to vehicular zen - they have a great deal of time to think and observe, and they know a hell of a lot of what amounts to a harsher form of psychology just from dealing with people everyday, notice how speedily they home in on a topic that interests you and make light conversation or banter about it.

We see a LOT of humans, every day, and while it's a rougher form of people skill and negotiation, they DO know it, or they don't get by in the business, you see.

Not to mention given what we do, fuel and fuel prices, and where it comes from and how it's got, these things matter to us, they matter a whole lot, and we don't really care for the situation as a whole, no, cause it cuts directly into our livelyhood, so we're not really happy with the current administration.

Most cab-pushers are fairly conservative libertarian minded folk as a general rule, so it's not at all surprising we'd hold similar beliefs.

-F

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Thursday, April 5, 2007 3:11 AM

HERO


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Given how we got that prisoner, yeah, I think they were justified in asking for him back.


Yeah, high ranking Iranian military, special forces, and intellegence folk are in Iraq all the time these days. I can't understand why thats a problem or why we picked him up.

How is Iran supposed to supply Iraqi subversives with weapons and explosives if we keep arresting them? Come on Bush and Blair, Iran has a legal right to send weapons to Iraq to be used against inncent people. After all, their Muslims, its their way.

H

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Thursday, April 5, 2007 4:16 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Sooo, according to you, the seizure of our embassy personnel in '79 was fully justifed then.

Cause, you know, we were doing that too - still are in some countries.

You can't have it both ways, either diplomatic personnel are off-limits, period.
Or, they're no longer off-limits when they start supporting local militants.

As for the slaughter of innocents in the name of religion, such commentary from Christians means absolutely nothing.

The effective lethal range of an IED is under a hundred yards.
The effective lethal range of an AK-47 is around three hundred yards.

Last I heard, either ocean, in either direction, was considerably larger than that, yanno.

They've have a much harder time doing unto us if we weren't over there sticking our head in the noose because of the idiotic fantasies of folks like you - whom, lemme be blunt, I directly blame for our casualties.

-Frem
It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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