REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

5 Myths About the Poor Middle Class

POSTED BY: GEEZER
UPDATED: Friday, January 4, 2008 10:04
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Sunday, December 23, 2007 9:00 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


By Stephen Rose
Sunday, December 23, 2007; Page B03

The American middle class is fighting for its life -- or at least that's what Lou Dobbs would have you believe. The CNN anchor's rants about "the war on the middle class" are probably the most prominent examples of such economic doom-saying, but he isn't alone. Democratic presidential candidates pepper their debates with references to the assault; leading liberal thinkers argue that supply-side conservatives captured the Republican Party during the Reagan administration and implemented policies that continue to privilege the super rich today. They tell a compelling tale of middle-class decline. Pity it isn't true.

1. The middle class's standard of living stagnated while the dot-com boom made the super rich even richer.

Not really. In fact, the U.S. economy hands out wealth far more evenly. Per capita gross domestic product has increased by more than 65 percent since 1979 -- growth that translates to $26,000 per household. If all that money had gone to the richest 10th of the population, it would now hold more than 60 percent of the national income. That's nearly twice as much as the super rich actually have, according to the best census surveys available.

To be fair, demographic changes have sparked many misunderstandings about the economic health of the middle class. For example, Americans today are more likely to live in single-adult households than they were 30 years ago. Adjust incomes to take into account this shift, along with increasing employer contributions to retirement savings and to health insurance premiums, and you find that the real middle-class median income has risen 33 percent, or $18,000, since 1979. Of course, that's a third less than the $26,000 that those households would have gotten if the growth had been distributed equally. But the middle class didn't stand still, either.

2. The middle class is shrinking.

True, fewer people today live in households with incomes between $30,000 and $100,000 (a reasonable definition of "middle class") than in 1979. But the number of people in households that bring in more than $100,000 also rose from 12 percent to 24 percent. There was no increase in the percentage of people in households making less than $30,000. So the entire "decline" of the middle class came from people moving up the income ladder. For married couples, median incomes have grown in inflation-adjusted dollars by 25 percent since 1979.

3. The only way people cope with the middle-class meltdown is by falling into debt.

You've probably heard that the average U.S. household carries $9,300 in credit card debt. But that misleading statistic includes the debt of the self-employed and some small businesses. The 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances, which does not include business debt, showed that 54 percent of households had no credit card debt after paying their monthly bill and that the average household credit card debt was just over $2,300.

Mortgages, which represent 79 percent of all debt, are the more pressing concern. But even according to the most pessimistic estimates, only 1 to 2 percent of homeowners will be forced into foreclosure in the next few years. Assets have grown faster than debts for most middle-class families. Median net worth has grown 35 percent since 1989, according to the Federal Reserve Board, and only 15 percent of households have debt payments worth more than 40 percent of their income or are 60 days late on any debt payment.

4 With the rise in trade with China and India, the United States has become a nation of low-paid service workers destined for a high rate of unemployment.

The claim that automation and international trade will create a large class of permanently unemployed American workers remains as fuzzy as ever. Certainly, in the churn of the modern economy, more firms are closing or reducing their labor forces. Every week for the past several years, nearly 1 million workers either quit or lost their jobs. But a slightly higher number were also hired in a typical week. At the national level, overall employment has grown slowly but steadily. And Commerce Department data show that even at the state level, including in Midwestern "Rust Belt" states, employment is up at least 14 percent since 1993, the year the North American Free Trade Agreement was passed.

Blue-collar manufacturing job losses were offset by the rise in what I call the "office economy" -- jobs in administration, sales, finance and other business services that sprouted nationwide. The health care industry also created lots of new jobs, many of them filled by college graduates who have experienced the largest gains in earnings. Per capita income has increased by at least 15 percent in every state since 1993 -- a good sign that state economies are large enough to adapt to the changing economy.

5. Companies are walking away from their commitments to workers by cutting pension and health insurance benefits.

Yes, companies are requiring more co-pays and higher deductibles in health-care plans. But medical costs are also on the rise, and employer contributions for health insurance jumped from 3.5 percent of wages in 1979 to 7.2 percent in 2005, according to the Commerce Department.

Virtually every large company provides coverage and pays more than 75 percent of employees' premiums. The rise in the number of uninsured workers over the past decade comes from cutbacks by small businesses and the self-employed.

U.S. companies are being reasonably generous with retirement benefits, too. They've remained steady over the past 30 years; the difference is that employers contribute to 401(k) accounts instead of traditional pensions. Workers lose the security of a guaranteed income in retirement, but they gain the flexibility to carry their investments with them when they change jobs, which Americans do more frequently now than in the days of old-school pensions.

Just look at the ever-proliferating suburbs, the high rate of home ownership, and the thriving market for new cars, HDTVs and videogame consoles. Inequality is certainly up, but it's the bottom 20 percent of the population, not the middle class, that's really struggling. Just don't tell the presidential candidates.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/21/AR2007
122101556.html


Copied in full for those of you who don't feel like registering to read the Post.







"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 10:14 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Are all of these figures adjusted for inflation? The article doesn't say, but if not it's worthless.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 10:45 AM

CHRISISALL


I now have hope that I, too, can be a journalist! You only need faulty figures, a bent agenda, and a blinders to everyday reality- I can do that! Hell, any idiot could!
My next article: How comics prices have risen over 1600% since 1970 proving that all today's comic-buying kids are rich!

Duhisall

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 11:18 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!


Huh. My income is zero, when I was paid $4,000 a month 10 years ago. My wife's income is $800 a month, when she earned $50,000 a year 15 years ago. New home forclosed on when no payments late. Two cars stolen by copkilling chopshopping towtruckers employed by Gangsta Govt. Incompetent medical insurance cancelled and blacklisted as "uninsurable" for being sick. Credit reports blacklist employment for being disabled. No Christmas gifts for us. Thanks for 6-months Unemployment "Insurance" and Food Stamps. But hey, at least I've got no credit card debt, only 3 months debt to my slumlord.

It was nice going back to college for retraining, until my professors told us there would be no more engineering jobs in USA in 10 years. That was in 2000. This year GM and Ford announced they were planning to close ALL factories in USA.

And Veternas Administration stole my wife's military retirement pension, as perped against 95% of all disabled retired veterans. But Jews in Congress plan to give all Russian military veterans full retirement pension in USA, paid by US taxpayers (and borrowed from Communist China).

My Social Security disability pension has been stolen for the past 10 years, despite overpaying over 100 years of insurance premiums into the SS Trust Fund. But at least Jewish illegal aliens get $60,000 a year Social Security after paying no taxes, with immunity from deportation (Jewish Lautenburg Amendment).

Of course the Jews censored that legislative news report off Youtube.



Quote:

Lautenberg Amendment

H.R. 1685 -- Freedom from Religious Persecution Act of 1997

http://burmalibrary.org/reg.burma/archives/199709/msg00230.html
http://www.visalaw.com/98oct/49oct98.html
http://www.vdare.com/allen/lautenberg.htm
http://www.state.gov/g/prm/rls/fs/44171.htm
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/artman2/publish/tsc0302/article_233.s
html

http://www.jfsla.org/index.php?/article/details/435/
http://www.skokienet.org/american/index.html



And restaurant managers in Tennessee are required to speak Spanish, for hiring illegal alien gangmembers (no US citizens allowed), and for speaking Spanish to ALL customers.

Here's George W Bush singing Happy Christmas, Suckers:



Ron Paul: The $6-Million Man
RonPaulRevere.com Canvassing DVD
http://ronpaulreveres.com/DVDIntroVideo

Ron Paul Radio Ad






http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendi_Deng
Hanoi Hannity: "I voted for the Sino-American Alliance."
"US ports owned by Commie China is good for me."
"Dead and disabled US soldiers are good for me."
"Outsourcing your job is very good for me."
"Sir Rupert dines with Hillary every week."
"Ron Paul does not exist in my 'Verse."

"As far as Chinese goes, I resented it."
-Adam Tudyk, The Making of Firefly




FOX, MYSPACE & FIREFLY OWNED BY COMMUNIST CHINA!
www.piratenews.org/pntv-schedule.html


Does that seem right to you?
Firefly Music Video: Tangerine dream - Confrontation, Thief soundtrack
www.megavideo.com/?v=JVT35GR8
www.scifi.com/onair/

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 3:00 PM

ROCKETJOCK


Don't forget the Illuminati, PN; or the Elders of Zion. Not to mention the International Conspiracy of Guys Named Dave.



"She's tore up plenty. But she'll fly true." -- Zoë Washburn

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 3:03 PM

CHRISISALL


Hey, Rocketdoof- the Illuminati are real; I saw them in Tomb Raider!!!

Check your sources Chrisisall

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 3:09 PM

CITIZEN


No they don't, and neither do the commie nazi jews. Anyone who says different, erm, won't be erm, crushed, at all, oh no.



More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 5:55 PM

MAL4PREZ


Interesting. The headline says 5 MYTHS, but the discussions are basically:

1. Not really...

2. True, but...

3. You've probably heard, but... [inconclusive pseudo-numbers follow]

4. It's fuzzy, but... [more fuzzy numbers that may show good signs if you squint at them]

5. Yes, but...

I mean, am I supposed to feel newly informed after reading this? Cause, honestly, not so much.

-----------------------------------------------
hmm-burble-blah, blah-blah-blah, take a left

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Sunday, December 23, 2007 8:27 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by mal4prez:
I mean, am I supposed to feel newly informed after reading this?

Not if all you can do is read the first words of each paragraph.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Monday, December 24, 2007 1:23 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!


But at least I produced 5 hours of deprogramming by Ron Paul, broadcast into 110,000 homes of Christmas zombies, to kill the IRS, income and Federal Resrve Counterfeit Banksters:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8574970266374349347&hl=en

Here's why the borders are wide open for 50-million criminal aliens. Seems US Dept of Homeland Security and Immigration Customs Enforcement are busy running coke for the CIA. That's 2 jets captured with 9 tons of Uncle Scam's cocaine:
http://www.narconews.com/Issue48/article2941.html

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Monday, December 24, 2007 1:31 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


1. Inflation plus the fact that penalties, such as the alternative minimum tax are not adjusted for inflation (while there's no suprise that social security payments at the same time are) largely, if not altogether, dismiss this entire point.

This is not exclusive to the dot-com boom. Bottom line, my grandpa was able to raise 5 kids and put a roof over their heads on a grocery store manager's salary in Chicago's south suburbs. Impossible today.

I do agree that demographic changes have occured that have greatly effected the marketplace though. There were a lot more jobs to go around when the only people who were working were anglo males. Funny how I've never heard how the effect that women in the job market has effected your average male's chance of getting a decent job in this country. Of course it's politically incorrect to even mention it, but usually the things that are politically incorrect and offensive to someone are true.

2. This point is nullified for the reasons that I've stated above. Because of inflation, any family with under $50,000/yr today is basically poor (particularly because of the unaffordability of housing today), and by as soon as 2010 nearly 16 million more homes will be impacted by the alternative minimum tax as our incomes increase (at a rate slower than TRUE inflation, of course).

An excerpt from MSN money on the AMT:

Right now, the number of taxpayers who are exposed to this morass is relatively small -- about 1.3 million taxpayers, or about 1% of the total, the GAO says. But by the year 2010 (and probably regardless of the Bush tax cut), the number of taxpayers affected by the AMT will rise to as many as 17 million, or about one in six. The revenue gain for the Treasury: from $5.8 billion a year to $38.2 billion a year.

The reason more of us will be affected by the AMT in 2010 than now is that the AMT, unlike normal tax brackets, isn’t indexed for inflation. If it were indexed, as much of the tax code is, the projected increase would only be to 2.1 million taxpayers.

Among the taxpayers increasingly exposed will be those with large families because of exclusions of such items as child credits.


Source: http://moneycentral.msn.com/articles/tax/basics/6647.asp

3. I can't disagree with the fact that the debt average has been manipulated any more than a lot of your figures have been manipulated. Whichever side of the fence someone is on, they are going to cherry pick stats in such a way to make their intended audience believe the sky is falling. Fortunately for me, I lost everything 7 years ago and really learned what it meant to have a good job and to use that time wisely to prepare for a dark future. Not only did I erase all of my debt, but according to your figures, I could pay off around 20 households credit card debt today. I will be using that money to purchase a house for cash money when the housing market bottoms out, which it will.

People who own their house to live there and can manage to keep their jobs will be okay, even if they go upside-down on their mortgage and the house is only worth half of what their loan was for. I feel sorry for those who got into real estate as a means of making a quick buck and didn't dump their properties fast enough.

4 I don't really have an opinion on this point one way or another. That's not to say I don't contemplate it, or wonder why for 5 years I couldn't find a good job, but they are out there. And as China and India keep coming up in the world, their wages get less competetive, considering all of their cultural and linguistic barriers on top of it. Many jobs have actually been brought back on shore from India because the greedy corpo idiots figured out that the money they were saving wasn't worth their customer base hating them because their customer service was only capable of reading a script because at most the customer service people knew 850 words of basic English, or Newspeak, as I prefer to call it. http://ogden.basic-english.org/basiceng.html


5. Well thank you very much Mr. Corpo. I'll need that insurance because I've had to go smoke outside in 2 degree winds tonight. A healthy workplace for all! (So long as you're a non-smoker) Not to mention the fact that I have to pay $5.00 a pack in Wisconsin starting the 1st of the year. But I should be happy that my extra cash is going to give health insurance to some fat fuck McDonalds eating latch-key kid behemoth that sits on his fat ass all day playing X-Box and probably smokes cigarettes or pot himself when mom isn't around.

And I know I have the communist Left to thank for that Geeze.

So, to surmise, I don't trust Lou Dobbs nor do I trust anything the Post has to say. Just a bunch of bullshit rhetoric and statistics from the boobs on either side. I'm not buying anything either of you have to sell.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Monday, December 24, 2007 4:08 AM

TOMAS


Geezer and PirateNews both spat out the very definition of propaganda.

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Monday, December 24, 2007 4:30 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Wow. Anyone who believes that making $49,999/yr makes you poor has no fathomable clue what being poor is.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Monday, December 24, 2007 5:43 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


But meanwhile I still don't know if the figures have been adjusted for inflation. 'Cause if not, the article isn't even worth addressing.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Monday, December 24, 2007 6:10 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Wow. Anyone who believes that making $49,999/yr makes you poor has no fathomable clue what being poor is.


Totally agree. That might put you at the lower end of middle class, or dip you into working class, but it ain't 'poor'. Unless you spend your money on 65" plasma TV's, cable, and other such things so that you have no money left for those pesky foodstuffs...

Budget Chrisisall

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Monday, December 24, 2007 6:19 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


But assuming that the article isn't citing "funny money" (something of a stretch, since right-wing articles like the Heritage Foundation's often don't adjust for inflation) let's take the article piece by piece.
----------------------

Quote:

1. The middle class's standard of living stagnated while the dot-com boom made the super rich even richer. Not really. In fact, the U.S. economy hands out wealth far more evenly.
Okay, far more evenly than what? I charge the writer with bad English because that sentence fell off a cliff. The phrase far more than is usually followed with some sort of benchmark comparison. I'm assuming they mean far more evenly than at the beginning of the dot-com bubble. So, using that assumption, let's move along.
Quote:

Per capita gross domestic product has increased by more than 65 percent since 1979 -- growth that translates to $26,000 per household. If all that money had gone to the richest 10th of the population, it would now hold more than 60 percent of the national income. That's nearly twice as much as the super rich actually have, according to the best census surveys available.
First of all. nobody is saying that "ALL" of the money has gone to the top 10%, just a disproportionate amount. There is a problem with this paragraph, since it shifts the base of comparison several times, and it does so simply to be able to say 65% and 30%. Makes you think that the rich have gotten poorer doesn't it? But they are just hiding this:

In 1979, the top 10% had an approximately 26% share of the economy and now it's over 30%. In fact, the ultra rich... the top 1%... has climbed even faster. Their share of the economy used to be about 6% in 1979, now it's over 12%.
www.nber.org/papers/w8467.pdf pp 74, 76.

In fact Income Inequality Hits Record Levels, New CBO Data Show
Quote:

Real after-tax incomes jumped by an average of nearly $180,000 for the top 1 percent of households in 2005, while rising just $400 for middle-income households and $200 for lower-income households, according to new data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

www.cbpp.org/12-14-07inc.htm


Now comes the hemming and hawing...

Quote:

To be fair, demographic changes have sparked many misunderstandings about the economic health of the middle class. For example, Americans today are more likely to live in single-adult households than they were 30 years ago. Adjust incomes to take into account this shift, along with increasing employer contributions to retirement savings and to health insurance premiums, and you find that the real middle-class median income has risen 33 percent, or $18,000, since 1979. Of course, that's a third less than the $26,000 that those households would have gotten if the growth had been distributed equally. But the middle class didn't stand still, either.
Nobody has said that the middle class has "stood still". But in terms of maintaining an equitable percentage across the board, even the article says that the middle class got a third less than that.


It's Xmas eve. I have things to do, I'm going to finish this much later. Finn and Geezer, thank you for being such wonderful propagandists.

Have a Merry Christmas for those that celebrate it, Happy Kwanzaa, and general good cheer to all!

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Monday, December 24, 2007 7:39 AM

FREMDFIRMA


That 50k doesn't go so very far when the Gov takes damn near half of it in taxes, then your state and local, and all those extra little taxes on everything down to your utility bills, and then throw on sales and property taxes on top of that...

Then throw in the expenses of mortgage, car payment, utilities, wardrobe upkeep for a job of that level, and heaven help you if you've got kids, not to mention that for all those premiums most health insurance covers virtually nothing with hefty co-pay on top of it and massive deductibles... oh yes, and auto insurance, homeowners, both of which will immediately file against YOU in court using YOUR money to pay the lawyers to beat down your nearly-broke ass if you dare even try to file a claim.

Get with the program serfs, shut up and bend the knee like you're supposed to for your corporate masters...
*SNARK*

Even though I work an unpleasant, "subsistence-level" job, I find it awfully damned ironic that most low to mid level corporate drones, once you adjust for expenses, inflation and taxes, ain't really any better off than me, in spite of the fact that they surrendered a good bit of their personal freedom to climb that ladder, and from what I have seen here in the whole auto industry and satellite economy, mostly wind up working 60-90 hour work weeks on a damned 40 hour "salary" as an employer dodge to avoid paying overtime, and if they DON'T put in the time, are quickly replaced by equally desperate fools with a mortgage to pay... and forget those pensions and benefits, they'll "spin off" a subsidary company, dump the obligations on it, then deliberately mismanage it to throw it into bankruptcy with the stunningly *generous* terms of such (but not for YOU peons, suck it up and deal!) in the corporate world, liquidate it and siphon the remnants back into the main company, conveniently disposing of those pesky obligations...

A medieval serf actually got to keep more of his stuff, and had more freedom than your typical corporate drone, and we act like we've improved upon our lot since the dark ages ?

HA!

About the only thing going for us THESE days is enough general education to realize how screwed we really are if we dare face up to it.

And I won't even "go there" about the increasingly-difficult and soon to be dangerous practice of trying to live outside of the little debt-slave pen they want us in, but Jack understands what the hell I mean by that, at least.

-Frem

(Oh yeah, and as an aside - no, this ISN'T the college debate team, and I don't really give a shit about some set of arbitrary rules dammit, I make common sense, heartfelt arguments from a point blank perspective, and when I offer my opinion you ain't obligated to share it, but for the love o mercy realize the stupidity and futility of trying to force such a set of rules at an anarchist who's offering you a unique viewpoint on a situation even if you do not share it.)

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Monday, December 24, 2007 8:07 AM

MAL4PREZ


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Quote:

Originally posted by mal4prez:
I mean, am I supposed to feel newly informed after reading this?

Not if all you can do is read the first words of each paragraph.

My point being, the writer actually agrees with 2 of his 5 "myths" (that would be the "yes" and the "true") and almost agrees with the third ("not really") and the other two points are fuzzy numbers and heresay (sort of).

Now, if these opening statements were followed by strong numbers and hard facts (yes, I did read all of it)... wait, the writer wouldn't have begun his statements this way if he actually had hard facts, don't you think?

Oh well, after all, it is an opinion piece. It's just not terribly convincing.

-----------------------------------------------
hmm-burble-blah, blah-blah-blah, take a left

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Monday, December 24, 2007 8:09 AM

CHRISISALL


BZZZZZZZ, Frem, I resent that 'drone' crack, BZZZZZ-
I work hard, but not for the man, I just love the honey, BZZZZZZZ, I just wish the Queen would let me keep more of it...BZZZZZZ...
Hey! BZZZZZ, big bees in black are taking me away- they say my opinions are detrimental to the hive...
BZZZZZ, my wings are being pulled off by a giant KID!!!!! ARGHHHHHH!!!!!

Bee-that-wasisall

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 4:41 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

2. The middle class is shrinking.

True, fewer people today live in households with incomes between $30,000 and $100,000 (a reasonable definition of "middle class") than in 1979. But the number of people in households that bring in more than $100,000 also rose from 12 percent to 24 percent. There was no increase in the percentage of people in households making less than $30,000. So the entire "decline" of the middle class came from people moving up the income ladder. For married couples, median incomes have grown in inflation-adjusted dollars by 25 percent since 1979.

First of all, note that Geezer changed his original post- which defined the middle class as beginning at $50,000- to the middle class beginning at $30,000 ... something I think we all could agree in as being borderline-poor for a family of four. (The official poverty level is $25,000 for a family of four.)

So my first question is whether this definition is in inflation-adjusted dollars. If not, then it's sheer propaganda, since today's $100,000 is more like 1979's $30,000. The actual facts are that the three lowest quintiles.... Q1, Q2, and Q3 (which is the "modal class") have lost ground in terms of the percent GDP since 1967 through 2006, and the bottom two quintiles lost ground in real wages through that same time period, while the "modal class" gained slightly (from $32,000 to $36,000) top two quintiles have zoomed ahead.
www.sustainablemiddleclass.com/Income-inequality.html



Quote:

So the entire "decline" of the middle class came from people moving up the income ladder. For married couples, median incomes have grown in inflation-adjusted dollars by 25 percent since 1979.
This is another one of those shifting bases of comparison. What about non-married heads of household? I guess they don't count because their numbers don't look so good! According to the Census, real household income has declined 5% in the last 5 years.
http://jec.senate.gov/Documents/Reports/08.29.07Income.pdf

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 4:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

3. The only way people cope with the middle-class meltdown is by falling into debt.
No, the way the formerly middle class have coped with middle-class meltdown is to have two people working three jobs. That means that "household" income rises even while hourly wages fall. Prolly the best way to determine the health of the middle class is not through household income, but through average hourly wages.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 6:11 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
First of all, note that Geezer changed his original post- which defined the middle class as beginning at $50,000- to the middle class beginning at $30,000.



Nope. The quote is verbatim from the original Washington Post article. Nothing changed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/21/AR2007
122101556.html


"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 2:48 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by mal4prez:
Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Quote:

Originally posted by mal4prez:
I mean, am I supposed to feel newly informed after reading this?

Not if all you can do is read the first words of each paragraph.

My point being, the writer actually agrees with 2 of his 5 "myths" (that would be the "yes" and the "true") and almost agrees with the third ("not really") and the other two points are fuzzy numbers and heresay (sort of).

Well, this is isn’t really true. The author actually seem to be trying to be fair in his responses to these myths. Many people claim the middle class is shrinking to suggest that the nation is growing poorer, so when the author points out that the middle class is shrinking because the nation is actually growing richer, it is not an agreement with the previous statement. Are you sure you’re just not groping for a reason to dismiss something you’d rather not consider anyway?



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 8:03 PM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Many people claim the middle class is shrinking to suggest that the nation is growing poorer, so when the author points out that the middle class is shrinking because the nation is actually growing richer, it is not an agreement with the previous statement.

This boggles my mind- if a small percentage is getting richer due to many factors, while segments of the middle class are getting poorer, you can say the GNP is up, but you can't say peeps as a whole are better off....*shakes head in confusion*

Bottom line Chrisisall

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 11:17 PM

FLETCH2


I have two brief comments.

First, I am surprised to discover that I am no longer "middle class" according to this article I earn too much.... weird..

Second, I think you have to view income in relation to actual basic costs to see if things have improved or worsened. I think to do this properly you need a good estimate of all family none discretionary spending, food, taxes, transportation, healthcare, rent/mortgage etc as a proportion of income. Without that proportion worked in any assessment becomes worthless.

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Tuesday, December 25, 2007 11:42 PM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Fletch2:


First, I am surprised to discover that I am no longer "middle class" according to this article I earn too much....

Enjoy your status, Fletch, and your gas guzzling Hummer...

Four-cylander Chrisisall

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 4:49 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
Many people claim the middle class is shrinking to suggest that the nation is growing poorer, so when the author points out that the middle class is shrinking because the nation is actually growing richer, it is not an agreement with the previous statement.

This boggles my mind- if a small percentage is getting richer due to many factors, while segments of the middle class are getting poorer, you can say the GNP is up, but you can't say peeps as a whole are better off....*shakes head in confusion*

According to this article the middle class is shrinking because middle class earners are getting richer, not poorer. It’s not that difficult to understand.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 4:50 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Well, this is isn’t really true. The author actually seem to be trying to be fair in his responses to these myths. Many people claim the middle class is shrinking to suggest that the nation is growing poorer, so when the author points out that the middle class is shrinking because the nation is actually growing richer, it is not an agreement with the previous statement. Are you sure you’re just not groping for a reason to dismiss something you’d rather not consider anyway?
The article changes the bases of comparison- for example "what would have been" to "what is", and "middle class" to "married middle class couples"- in order to do ONE THING: to jiggle the numbers until it comes up with good-sounding figures. Now, that is not sound economics or good science. But it IS good propaganda.

But instead of responding point by point to a propaganda piece, maybe we should look at "the state of the middle class" and derive our own assessment.

The first thing we have to do is define "middle class" because right now there is no generally accepted definition. Do we look at the middle quintile (literally, the in-the-middle-class)? Household income adjusted for inflation? Individual income adjusted for inflation (to make up for the fact that households may remain in-place simple because more people in the household are working)?

My suggestion is that we look at individual per-hour wages, adjusted for increased in costs of goods and services.



---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 4:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Geezer, I don't believe you. So- whatever.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 5:01 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Quote:

Well, this is isn’t really true. The author actually seem to be trying to be fair in his responses to these myths. Many people claim the middle class is shrinking to suggest that the nation is growing poorer, so when the author points out that the middle class is shrinking because the nation is actually growing richer, it is not an agreement with the previous statement. Are you sure you’re just not groping for a reason to dismiss something you’d rather not consider anyway?
The article changes the bases of comparison- for example "what would have been" to "what is", and "middle class" to "married middle class couples"- in order to do ONE THING: to jiggle the numbers until it comes up with good-sounding figures. Now, that is not sound economics or good science. But it IS good propaganda.

The article may not constitute scientific analysis, but propaganda isn’t an accurate description either. And I suspect the problems you have with its bases of comparison have a lot more to do with your disagreement with the author’s point then any kind of real problem with the author’s logic.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 5:30 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Geezer, I don't believe you. So- whatever.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.



Anybody with the ability to read the text I quoted and then read the actual article in the Post can see that I changed nothing.

Too bad that you can't let such a simple exercise get in the way of your preconceptions.

In response to your standard 'What About Inflation?' comment, note that only two of the five Myths and answers are impacted by inflation, and the answer to myth #2 includes "For married couples, median incomes have grown in inflation-adjusted dollars by 25 percent since 1979."

I gotta agree with Finn. "...I suspect the problems you have with its bases of comparison have a lot more to do with your disagreement with the author’s point then any kind of real problem with the author’s logic."

You just can't stand anything that might make it seem like the world isn't going to hell in a handbasket, and will reflexively attack anything that tends to disagree, even to making up baseless charges about folk changing the facts.



"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 5:49 AM

KIRKULES


Simply comparing economic statistics from 1979 and today doesn't tell the whole story. Adjusted for inflation I earn about the same today as I did In 1979. The difference in my standard of living has come from the benefits of free trade and technological advancement. Low interest rates and cheap foreign products mean I can own twice as big of home and fill it with big screen TVs and other items that there is no way I could have afforded in 1979. Technology has displaced some manufacturing workers but individual productivity has grown at an incredible rate. The productivity increases in the jobs I have had means that the prices for the products I produce have remained stable or even dropped in some cases since the early 80's. New technology also means that there is less need for skilled workers in the manufacturing sector but more need for educated and none skilled workers in the technology and service sectors. Most of the dissatisfaction of the American people is because of the growing pains associated with the change in the US economy from a labor intensive manufacturing economy to a technology and service based economy.

Just as a side note, the US manufacturing sector alone is still larger than the entire Chinese economy.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 7:37 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
According to this article the middle class is shrinking because middle class earners are getting richer, not poorer. It’s not that difficult to understand.


Okay then, I'll write an article that states that most baby-boomers live on Mars- then it'll obviously be true...

Get your ass to Mars Chrisisall

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 8:06 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Geezer, Finn... I tried to get a real picture out of the stats, but it's like having five unknowns and three equations... the article keeps shifting the base of comparison so frequently that it's mathematical hash. It's impossible to get ANY sort of coherent view out of it. So I went back to common measures to see what I could see, and I found serious flaws in most.

Here's what I found:

You can look at percentage of GNP in quintiles. The story is that the top two quintiles are taking in a way higher precentage of the GNP than they used to and the top decile is doing spectacularly better, which means that income disparity is increasing (the GINI index tell the same story). But it doesn't describe the quintiles in any objective sense. For example, is the central quintile doing "better than" before? (Which would be the case if the GNP were rising faster than the amount being skimmed off at the top) Or is the central quintile doing "worse than" they used to? (Which would be the case if the GNP were falling, or not rising as fast as the "skim off the top" is rising.)

Or, you could look inflation adjusted household income. You would have to define your "middle class" by income, and then look very carefully to see if your inflation adjustment was in-line with the official inflation rate (Sometimes the official inflation rate isn't truly reflective of increased costs, so you might want to double-check your adjustments with a "basket" of major purchases like housing, cars, electricity costs per KWH, and major appliances like refrigerators etc.) But then you'd have to take into account two competing factors: There are more single heads of household than before, but married couples have two working people instead of one. (Which is why "married couples" have increased their household income 25%. Of course they've also increased their work hours by 70%. That's just some of the "hash" from your article.)

So of all the measures, probably the best is distribution of inflation-adjusted hourly (or yearly) individual income. (Again with the caveat that you'd have to check the official inflation rate against some common sense measures, because they "adjust" the "basket" of goods used to measure CPI fomr time to time. For example, they dropped steak from the basket because it was too expensive.)

I'm willing to look at the numbers in some realistic fashion. But not from some shitty opinion piece written by a guy with an axe to grind, and not through discussion with folks who apparently know nothing about economics or math.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 10:41 AM

CITIZEN


A shrinking middle class often precipitates societal collapse.

Surely if everyone is getting richer it should be the poor and working class that would be shrinking, not the middle class?

Doesn't a shrinking middle class show a widening gap between rich and poor?



More insane ramblings by the people who brought you beeeer milkshakes!
No one can see their reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 11:23 AM

GORRAMGROUPIE


I don't care what the numbers say, all I know is that as a married man, with 4 kids, and a wife who stays at home, I can't survive on the same dollar amount that my father made, with 4 kids,back in the 70's and 80's. I would need to make at least 40k a year just to break even. That is my reality, and whether the middle class is growing or shrinking means bupkus to me. How does one survive the increasing costs of food, gas, housing, clothing, etc, when wages don't keep up to the increase? Answer me that.

I have 6 locks on my door and bolt every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they're always locking 3 locks.

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Wednesday, December 26, 2007 5:49 PM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by gorramgroupie:
How does one survive the increasing costs of food, gas, housing, clothing, etc, when wages don't keep up to the increase? Answer me that.


By taking any jobs available- even honest ones...

Malisall

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 1:05 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


So I guess Finn and Geezer are just going to ignore my post then?

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 2:44 AM

FREMDFIRMA


What, are you nuts ?

Common sense, logic, and rational debate is like garlic, silver and sunlight to that bunch, besides which, even if they did bother to address it, would it really be anything but more of the same with a double heaping of idealogical nastiness of some type as a slam for daring to disagree with their proclaimations, and some snark thrown in on the top like candy sprinkles ?

If you're arguing the point for the benefit of other folks who read RWED and don't post cause of how rough it gets, by all means, go for it...

Otherwise, just accept the futulity of arguing with the brick wall of a zealots faith, and just bait them into revealing their true selves and agendas, which is also more fun, as well.

-Frem
It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 2:54 AM

FINN MAC CUMHAL


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Otherwise, just accept the futulity of arguing with the brick wall of a zealots faith, and just bait them into revealing their true selves and agendas, which is also more fun, as well.

Well that sums up your participation on this board fairly well, if somewhat hypocritically.

And I did read and respond to sixstring's post. I'm not exactly sure what he expects me to say, but I said all I'm going to on it. If for no other reason then that there are plenty of discussion I can have that doesn't involve childish taunting.



Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 3:50 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Hey, like I told Rap... you wanna discuss, we'll discuss... you wanna play mindgames, or just spout off, don't be surprised at the return fire, ehe ?

I gave all the input my knowledge of economics allows on the situation, truthfully it's outta my league, but dude, I can smell BS a mile away and when folks are telling me something rather blatantly at odds with what my own eyes tell me...

Imma call em on it, yanno.

The dude who wrote the piece we're discussin did a piss poor job of making his argument, even *I* can see that, so it was a really bad job of it, I've no position on the argument itself other than taxes and expenses have far outstretched any economic benefits we've seen up here in Detroit, that's for damn sure.

I may snark and mock, but I *WILL* discuss, if discussion is possible and it's likely to accomplish anything - I am sayin do something to prove your point beyond the apalling rubbish that's been offered so far, and do it in a fashion that makes SENSE to someone without a college degree.

Dealer takes one and stands pat, your bet.

Raise/Fold/Call ?

-F

Addendum, Oh come now Finn, I make no secret of not being a very nice person, and none whatever of my agendas, in fact, if I don't think they're getting across, I will go back and clarify!

So it's not like the inherent dishonesty of hiding blind hate behind a mask of reason and logic, like some do.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 4:09 AM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:

Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
So I guess Finn and Geezer are just going to ignore my post then?


Nope. Just limited free time right now.

Quote:

1. Inflation plus the fact that penalties, such as the alternative minimum tax are not adjusted for inflation...largely, if not altogether, dismiss this entire point.



Inflation hits everyone, and the upper limit of "middle-class" (whatever that limit is) moves up as steadily as the lower limit. Incomes which used to be in the 'upper' class now fit firmly in middleclass. Also, after years of dodging the issue, the AMT is now being addressed by Congress. I'd expect indexing to be in place permanently by the end of next year.

Quote:

2. This point is nullified for the reasons that I've stated above. Because of inflation, any family with under $50,000/yr today is basically poor (particularly because of the unaffordability of housing today), and by as soon as 2010 nearly 16 million more homes will be impacted by the alternative minimum tax as our incomes increase (at a rate slower than TRUE inflation, of course).


I provide the same response as above. AMT will be indexed. Congress passed a one year reduction this year, and will get indexing in place soon.

Quote:

3. I can't disagree with the fact that the debt average has been manipulated any more than a lot of your figures have been manipulated....Fortunately for me, I lost everything 7 years ago and really learned what it meant to have a good job and to use that time wisely to prepare for a dark future.


I seem to see a trend in this thread. The folk who have lost a job, or don't make as much as they'd like, or have had other financial trouble, think that the economy is tanking and the middle class shrinking. Folk who have never been out of work, made good money, and always had enough think things are going OK. only natural, I suppose.

Quote:

5. Well thank you very much Mr. Corpo. I'll need that insurance because I've had to go smoke outside in 2 degree winds tonight.


Your choice. And Mr. Corpo does provide health insurance for you, regardless of your behavior, doesn't he?

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 4:58 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

seem to see a trend in this thread. The folk who have lost a job, or don't make as much as they'd like, or have had other financial trouble, think that the economy is tanking and the middle class shrinking. Folk who have never been out of work, made good money, and always had enough think things are going OK. only natural, I suppose.
Except me and my SO. We're doing OK financially. We both have good, stable, well-paying jobs (which are near-to-impossible to come by nowadays). My investment in gold and currency baskets has paid off nicely, and I'm looking for the next big wave to ride. (Hint: It isn't real estate. BTW, when comparing investment strategy success, the macroeconomic approach actually works best.) But even WE think the economy is tanking, because we don't confuse our personal situation with overall reality.

I found an interesting macroeconomic website called the RGE Monitor. Unfortunately it's so pricey that only institutions like banks, universities and investment houses would want to subscribe. And like all websites, you have to take their information with a grain of salt. But you can access the founder's blog for free, and this is what he said as of Dec 25, in brief
Quote:

In recent weeks, the global liquidity and credit crunch that started last August has become more severe. This is easy to show: in the United States, the euro zone, and the United Kingdom, spreads between Libor interest rates (at which banks lend to each other) and central bank interest rates – as well as government bonds – are extremely high and have grown since the crisis began. This signals risk aversion and mistrust of counterparties. ... The recent announcement of coordinated liquidity injections by the Fed and four other major central banks is, to be blunt, too little too late. ...
The US is now headed towards recession regardless of what the Fed does. The build-up of real and financial problems – the worst US housing recession ever, oil at $90 a barrel or above, a severe credit crunch, falling investment by the corporate sector, and savings-less and debt-burdened consumers buffeted by multiple negative shocks – make a recession unavoidable. Other economies will also be pulled down as the US contagion spreads.

... Today’s financial markets are dominated by non-bank institutions – investment banks, money market funds, hedge funds, mortgage lenders that do not accept deposits, so-called “structured investment vehicles,” and even states and local government investment funds – that have no direct or indirect access to the liquidity support of central banks. All these non-bank institutions are now potentially at risk of a liquidity run. Indeed, US legislation strictly forbids the Fed from lending to non-depository institutions, except in emergencies.... So the risk of something equivalent to a bank run for non-bank financial institutions owing to their short-term liabilities and longer-term and illiquid assets, is rising... There is little chance that banks will re-lend to these non-banks the funds they borrowed from central banks, given these banks’ own severe liquidity problems and mistrust of non-bank counterparties.


www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

Well, this is somewhat more dire than my own prediction, but definitely a head's up for my investment future.

Cheerio.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 5:56 AM

KIRKULES


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
[B Except me and my SO. We're doing OK financially.
---------------------------------
Always look upstream.



I think it's interesting that when the American people are polled a large majority say exactly what you say. People who are doing well see others not doing as well and assume things are bad in spite of their own situation. People's personal perceptions are not very useful when looking at the overall economy. If you ask the "poor" about their personal situation they are generally optimistic about their own future but pessimistic about the future of those around them. We tend to see the economy based on our own personal misconceptions and seek statistics to prove ourselves correct.

It also amazes me how people talk about a recession as if it's the end of the world. In many cases a recession is just a sign of the beginning of another economic cycle. Next time the economists call a recession it's time to load up on stocks that do well in the early stages of the cycle.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 6:30 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Kirkules:

It also amazes me how people talk about a recession as if it's the end of the world. In many cases a recession is just a sign of the beginning of another economic cycle. Next time the economists call a recession it's time to load up on stocks that do well in the early stages of the cycle.

I...actually agree with you on this, K.

Chrisisall

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 6:58 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I think it's interesting that when the American people are polled a large majority say exactly what you say.
I'm well aware that most people see their situation as somehow better than others see it. The vast majority of parents of children in the worst school in the District still think their school is 'alright'. People who live in the least safe neighborhoods often think that the problem is 'really' the next block over. Polls of 'the insured' for the most part (95%+) think their insurance is OK, even if it has a horrible experience rate. Still, I know where our household income and assets are in the quintiles. Believe me when I say we're doing okay. You OTOH are prolly not doing as well as you think, if you think like most people. (And you prolly do.)

-------------------

You have a couple of bogus assumptions behind your sanguine reaction towards recessions.

1) If you're prepared for a recession.... unemployment, erosion of purchasing power .... and you've protected yourself against asset loss, then you've got nothing to fear. Swing away, and take advantage of the opportunities ahead. It's like Baron Rothschild said: The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. But most people are NOT Baron Rothschild. Most people don't have the resources jigger the markets to their advantage. A recession for most people means real pain. And that's what we're talking about, right? Most people. The middle class. Most likely you, and everyone reading this post including me. You have what's known as a "false identity": You really don't know where you are in the pecking order.

2) Secondly, it's stupid to accept cycles of boom and bust as somehow "necessary" for growth. It's not necessary. Growth is growth, and recession is not "negative growth" it's destruction of capital... most often accompanied by a further shift of resources to the wealthy. (Did you know that luxury goods never sold so well as during the Great Depression?)

So I'm glad you're feeling optimistic about the future, but think I know exactly where I am in the pecking order.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 7:35 AM

KIRKULES


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:

Secondly, it's stupid to accept cycles of boom and bust as somehow "necessary" for growth. It's not necessary.



Many of those reading this aren't even old enough to have experienced a deep recession. I agree that recessions aren't "necessary" but our understanding of macroeconomics hasn't reached the level were we can avoid them entirely. Thanks to the work of the great Milton Friedman http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_Friedman recessions have become less severe in recent years and most recessions would pass unnoticed except for the political posturing.

That "the rich get richer" BS just doesn't fly with me because while the "rich" get richer the "poor" get richer too. As much as I would love to believe we can take money from the "rich" an give it to the "poor" and everything will be just dandy, I know it's not true. Redistribution of wealth by the government will result in a smaller "pie" to divide among the rich and poor and everyone looses in the end.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 7:38 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

That "the rich get richer" BS just doesn't fly with me because while the "rich" get richer the "poor" get richer too.
Not always. I think I've made a good case showing that the poor have gotten poorer in the past seven years, not just in a relative sense but also objectively. And AFA redistribution of wealth leading to a smaller "pie" for all, much of the Eurozone has been growing well and they redistribute wealth pretty aggressively. And macroeconomics would explain why that should be the case. But I've spent way too much time on the board, so I'm afraid I'm gonna have to duck out of this discussion and come back to it later.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 7:48 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by Kirkules:
As much as I would love to believe we can take money from the "rich" an give it to the "poor" and everything will be just dandy, I know it's not true. Redistribution of wealth by the government will result in a smaller "pie" to divide among the rich and poor and everyone looses in the end.

Howz about we just limit government's ability to facilitate the rich TAKING money (Haliburton, Blackwater, anyone?) instead of making money? I'd be okay with that, wouldn't you, Kirk? Jong? Or do you guys really have no clue JUST HOW concentrated the wealth has become in this country?
I could envision a time when peeps here say, "Most homeless get regular meals at the soup kitchens, and have portable 20" flat screen tv's to watch in their cardboard boxes- they're doing fine compared to the poor in the third and fourth worlds!"

A matter of perspective Chrisisall

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Thursday, December 27, 2007 8:33 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Eh, one LAST post!


If government had not specifically meddled in the war between the classes- the owners on the one hand and the employees on the other- we would prolly be seeing huge international labor unions battling it out with huge megacorps. I'm not sure there would be peace. (Watch Harlan County some day.) In some ways, politics is better than the alternative.


---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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