Hey... You know the value of the Entire US Stock Market by 6ixStringJack

Total market capitalization of the NYSE is somewhere around $15T dollars, that's how much it would cost to buy every stock at it's current value --- which of course would never happen. Nasdaq is about another $3T

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Friday, February 15, 2008 10:32 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
However, Fed rate cuts alone are unlikely to avert a prolonged period of economic weakness because the danger still exists that a burdened banking sector will choke off credit to consumers and households.

Just put the blame for this fiasco exactly where it belongs...high profit and big business. Our economy runs on consumer demand. If you refuse to raise minimum wages and shovel money at the upper 1% as fast as possible. eventually consumers run out of cash and turn to credit. (By the way, the income and assests disparity has finally reached the historic proprotions of 1929. Does that tell you anything?) When the credit runs dry, so does the economy.

Greed uber alles.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 11:00 AM

The problem is that "cheap" credit is not trickling down, cuts of interest rates to the banks is not being followed by a rapid retail credit rate cut as banks try and scratch back the losses they made in the mortgage crisis. Result could be something we haven't seen in a while -- inflation in a market with limited credit -- kind of stagflation with a 21st century twist.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 11:02 AM

HERO

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Just put the blame for this fiasco exactly where it belongs...high profit and big business.

What fiasco?

The 52 week range is 11,508.70 - 14,280.00 and the current value is 12,347.64.

Seems to be pretty normal.

H

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Friday, February 15, 2008 1:31 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Fletch2:
The problem is that "cheap" credit is not trickling down, cuts of interest rates to the banks is not being followed by a rapid retail credit rate cut as banks try and scratch back the losses they made in the mortgage crisis. Result could be something we haven't seen in a while -- inflation in a market with limited credit -- kind of stagflation with a 21st century twist.

Bernanke's primary reason for cutting rates was to shore up financial institutions. The interest rate spread "the difference between what banks pay depositors and what they charge borrowers" goes up for a while when interest rates drop. This should give the banks the extra profitability they need to get through the sub-prime loan mess. The problem is that with all the doom and gloom out there, people aren't willing to borrow money no matter how low interest rate are. On top of that, banks have raised their lending standards so many couldn't borrow money even if they wanted to. It's going to take some time for this crisis to work through but if the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 80's is any example, things will return to normal a lot quicker than many expect.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 2:13 PM

GINOBIFFARONI

Quote:
Originally posted by Fletch2:
Total market capitalization of the NYSE is somewhere around $15T dollars, that's how much it would cost to buy every stock at it's current value --- which of course would never happen. Nasdaq is about another $3T

You might want to start giving those numbers in Yuan

Just saying

The Alliance said they were gonna waltz through Serenity Valley. And we choked 'em with those words. We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 3:46 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Quote:
What fiasco?

Eh, the one pointed to in the very first paragraph of the linked article

Quote:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fear that a hobbled banking sector may set off another Great Depression could force the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to take the unprecedented step of buying a broad range of assets, including stocks...

This is the third reputable article I've seen that talks about another Great Depression. That should make people sit up and take notice.

I'm really of two minds about the upcoming economy. Not just "the stock market", the whole economy. It's going to take some digestion. Analysts are not talking about "illiquidity" in some sectors they're talking "insolvency" which is a whole nother bag of cats. The thing that's swinging the market is the "monolines"- bond insurers who used to stick to munibonds but just recently got into insuring "toxic" mortgage-based bonds and are currently losing their shirts... AND their AAA ratings. Now, if the bond insurers themselves are shaky, think of all that money normally raised through binds that suddenly becomes unavailable.

It's like having the "junk bond crisis", the "S&L crisis" and a fundametnally weak economy on top of each other. Needs some thought into how this is all going to play out because its' certainly going to affect my future investments! If I come up with a convincing scenario I'll let you know.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 4:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Quote:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fear that a hobbled banking sector may set off another Great Depression

This is the third reputable article I've seen that talks about another Great Depression. That should make people sit up and take notice.

It would seem that this article is credible, but I have my doubts. There is an unprecedented amount of short interest in the market currently. Traders have learned that it's just as easy to make money in a down market as in an up market by short selling stocks. I believe the guy referred to in this article is just another shill for the shorts in the market. Since the stock market decline starting in 2000 many have made a lot of money betting against stocks. They have their plants in the media that push end of the world scenarios for them as a way of manipulating the stock market. There will come a point in the not to distant future when a sense of reality returns to the market and the shorts will get squeezed. This will result in a incredibly fast run-up in the market that feeds on traders dumping their short positions {they must buy stock to cover their short positions). Just as soon as the market turns the same guy preaching end of the world will see nothing but blue skies ahead and will start talking the market up.

On the other hand I might just be a shill for the Long's in the market so don't trust anything I say either.

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Friday, February 15, 2008 5:33 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Fletch2:
Total market capitalization of the NYSE is somewhere around $15T dollars, that's how much it would cost to buy every stock at it's current value --- which of course would never happen. Nasdaq is about another $3T

Not that I'm arguing you here, but I am.

Just wondering what makes you think that this scenario would never happen.

Another 10 years of this war could put us into 30 trillion debt. If the FED decides one day it wants us to pay up and our Government had arleady opened up the door to the FED to buy the stock market through the government out of fear of a 2nd Great Depression, what makes you think this scenario couldn't pan out?

Let's take it a step further and consider the municipal bond crisis we may soon be facing.

http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/balance/archive/2007/balance1204.html

If our municipal bonds are part of the market today, and the bond insurers go belly up, what makes it so far fetched that an unrestricted FED could own our water reclimation plants, parks and even our schools in repayment for our debt that we've become so accoustomed to believing that we'll never pay it off, as legitimate concerns about what could happen are tucked nicely away in the back of our minds somewhere behind the fear of mutually assured destruction and why great shows like Firefly and Deadwood are constantly cancelled before their time.

Warren Buffet is already trying to get his greedy mitts on the action: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23126680/

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ~ Thomas Jefferson

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Friday, February 15, 2008 6:28 PM

FREMDFIRMA

I see you've been doing your homework, Jack.

No matter what other flaws he had, Andrew Jackson did more for us than folks realize when he "killed the bank" and those probably were the folks behind the first assassination attempt of a US President, which failed due to wet powder, and Jacksons own advisers had to pry him off before he beat the guy to death, heh.

Roger Sherman was right, but he and the other founding fathers didn't go far enough, they thought they had forbidden paper money entire and this was enough to prevent Usury of most sorts in the first place...

But then, when the Judges can reinterpret the meaning however they wish, the Constitution no longer protects us, it's just that simple.

Me, I am bunkering down and hoping not to get scored as a collateral when it all breaks loose, ain't really no stoppin it at this point.

-F

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Friday, February 15, 2008 6:41 PM

Revolution won't come about until the screws are put to the people... and HARD. Even if Fox and CNN were plainly stating to the people what I'm suggesting here, they wouldn't do anything about it. Some because they're too stupid to understand it even if they've had it explained to them like a two year old, but most because as long as their tummy's aren't rumbling and they got their booze and drugs and American Idol and XBox 360 and internet porn the rest of the world doesn't matter.

That's what was so scary about 1984. None of that happened overnight. Just as while you were reading you witnessed Big Brother ever-so-slowly pusing the envelope, it had been going on that way for 50 some odd years prior since the book's authoring, and the inspiration for Orwell was the fact that it had been going that way since the invent of the printed press, and one could assume by word of mouth even before that. Just as in our lifetiems it has been going on since the year 1984 up until now and will continue to happen until humanity ceases to exist or infinitum.

As long as nobody is starving to death, nothing will change and people won't listen to the Ron Pauls or the Dennis Kuciniches out there. So long as the machine chooses to invade our lives in such a slow way that it only seems like a million and one little inconveniences thruought the span of a lifetime rather than one giant Wiley E. Coyotesque Acme anvil on the head, not a damn one of the sheep is going to do anything but bitch about it a little and go back to their increasingly meaningless and miserable lives.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 12:57 AM

FREMDFIRMA

Well, in response to that, I got three words for ya.

Laser Guided Tykebomb.

As as you well know, I make em by the dozens.

-F

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 3:28 AM

One man's intelligent, well educated, self aware and intuitive individual is another man's Tykebomb...

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 6:15 AM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Quote:
Originally posted by Fletch2:
Total market capitalization of the NYSE is somewhere around $15T dollars, that's how much it would cost to buy every stock at it's current value --- which of course would never happen. Nasdaq is about another $3T

Not that I'm arguing you here, but I am.

Just wondering what makes you think that this scenario would never happen.

Another 10 years of this war could put us into 30 trillion debt. If the FED decides one day it wants us to pay up and our Government had arleady opened up the door to the FED to buy the stock market through the government out of fear of a 2nd Great Depression, what makes you think this scenario couldn't pan out?

Well it could but it would be stupid.....

What I meant about nobody buying at that price is this. The market capitalization of a company is the current value of it's shares * the total number of shares in the market. It is at best a theoretical number. It does not represent the amount of money the company made when it put itself on the stockmarket, that was the original value of the shares times the number issued. It does not represent the book value of the company either. Further the current share value reflects things like sentiment and speculation and other things that have nothing to do with the company's financial health.

In short the value has nothing to do with what the company is worth and more to do with what people are willing to pay for it. If you multiply that across the whole market you get that $15T number. But here's the problem, that figure only exists if someone outside the stock market is willing to buy in at that price. Let's say I buy 30,000 shares in company A for a dollar a share. I paid in $30,000. Later the company publishes some good returns. Fred, a casual investor, takes a liking to company A and buys 5,000 shares at $5. Now the share value has risen to $5 a share my holdings just rose to $150,000 yay! but that is a paper value that I can only realize if I can find enough "Freds" willing to buy my holding at $5 a share. Let's say that isn't true though, let's assume that the Fred's overvalued company A in a rush of false enthusiasm. When I come to try to sell my larger holdings there simply are not enough Fred's willing to pay top dollar. As I sell the price starts to fall as all the folks that want to buy at $5 take what they want, then the folks at $4 etc etc. So although for a moment my holdings were worth $150,000 they are only really worth that if I can find a buyer at that price.

Let's say we owe China $20T. The bonds we have sold them are redeemable in dollars and so they have a dollar value. They are also tradable. Now China could sit on the bonds waiting patiently for the USGOV to pay back what it owes or it could trade them for dollars or dollar delineated assets.

Now the Jack plan, the idea that the government would buy up the stock market and sell it to China has the following problems.

1) The stock market probably isn't worth what it is valued at so that would be a dumb move.

2) The gov would have doubled it's debt to do that.

3) It's completely unnecessary since the chinese can already use the bonds we give them to buy US companies and assets in the open market.

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 8:39 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Actually, I thought the analysT made an interesting point. He said that the purpose of the Fed buying equities was to reinflate the market. I was left with the very distinct impression (Don't have time to go back and read the article at the moment) that he thought the stok market was already overvalued.

---------------------------------
Always look upstream.

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 4:29 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by Fletch2:
Well it could but it would be stupid.....

What I meant about nobody buying at that price is this. The market capitalization of a company is the current value of it's shares * the total number of shares in the market. It is at best a theoretical number. It does not represent the amount of money the company made when it put itself on the stockmarket, that was the original value of the shares times the number issued. It does not represent the book value of the company either. Further the current share value reflects things like sentiment and speculation and other things that have nothing to do with the company's financial health.

In short the value has nothing to do with what the company is worth and more to do with what people are willing to pay for it. If you multiply that across the whole market you get that $15T number. But here's the problem, that figure only exists if someone outside the stock market is willing to buy in at that price. Let's say I buy 30,000 shares in company A for a dollar a share. I paid in $30,000. Later the company publishes some good returns. Fred, a casual investor, takes a liking to company A and buys 5,000 shares at $5. Now the share value has risen to $5 a share my holdings just rose to $150,000 yay! but that is a paper value that I can only realize if I can find enough "Freds" willing to buy my holding at $5 a share. Let's say that isn't true though, let's assume that the Fred's overvalued company A in a rush of false enthusiasm. When I come to try to sell my larger holdings there simply are not enough Fred's willing to pay top dollar. As I sell the price starts to fall as all the folks that want to buy at $5 take what they want, then the folks at $4 etc etc. So although for a moment my holdings were worth $150,000 they are only really worth that if I can find a buyer at that price.

Let's say we owe China $20T. The bonds we have sold them are redeemable in dollars and so they have a dollar value. They are also tradable. Now China could sit on the bonds waiting patiently for the USGOV to pay back what it owes or it could trade them for dollars or dollar delineated assets.

Now the Jack plan, the idea that the government would buy up the stock market and sell it to China has the following problems.

1) The stock market probably isn't worth what it is valued at so that would be a dumb move.

2) The gov would have doubled it's debt to do that.

3) It's completely unnecessary since the chinese can already use the bonds we give them to buy US companies and assets in the open market.

I'm trying not to be too snotty here when I say it, but thanks for the lesson in the market.

I actually know quite a bit about how it works and I did ace my economics classes during the several short stints I had at college.

Nobody buying at that price I can agree with wholly. What you're holding is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. If I could have sold my baseball cards and comic books I had when I was a kid according to the price in Beckett and Wizard magazines, I would have been able to pay my own way through college and may have actually finished my "higher" education. As it were, the comic book and baseball card "markets" crashed and I was in the middle of them when the so called "rare" or "Special Edition" comics and cards had been printed by the millions. When all of us geniuses finally figured out that the rare Spidey vs. Venom hologram card I had was actually pretty common it wasn't worth teh $350.00 that I had thought it was, this was the result:

http://cgi.ebay.com/MARVEL-UNIVERSE-4-SPIDERMAN-VENOM-HOLOGRAM-CHASE-C
ARD_W0QQitemZ290205348609QQihZ019QQcategoryZ37894QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

I'd say the probably thousands of dollars wasted on comic books and baseball cards today might get me $50.00 at a garage sale.

So.... yeah. Why would somebody buy the entire US stock market at a premium. It's still inflated today. If it were 12,000+ and interest rates were around 6-8% for overnight bank loans, I wouldn't consider it so artificially bloated. But seeing as how we don't know on any given day if it will dip below 12,000 even given the rediculous and careless rate cuts we've seen so far this year, the rediculous and careless tax break that's only going to put this nation further into debt, and the near certanty that there will be another rediculous and careless 1/2% rate cut in the near future, I'm not at all confident that our market is worth anything near 15T. We're probably facing the crisis that Japan did in the 90's and the entire market could look much more appealing when the DOW is 4,000 to 5,000 in the next few years.

Add another 10T to the national debt for war expenditures, universal healthcare and our continuing welfare to people who don't even belong in our country by that time too.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I never said anything about China in my posts in this thread. Government doesn't have to pass any laws allowing that. Foreign investors are buying up all of our assets as it is today and our good-for-nothing Government isn't doing anything to regulate against that. That's something we're all getting phucked on already today.

What I'm talking about is the US Government writing laws making it okay for the FED to buy our companies. Make no mistake about it my friend, the FED and the US Government are two completely different entities. Even if the FED spent 15T next year to buy the stock market, it would not add 15T to the national debt. It would eliminate the current debt that America owes the FED.

China be damned.... I'm talking about a US Government and all of our corporations and labor reduced to puppets to the World Bank.

Truthfully, at 12T debt we're already there. At least 50% of my income every year disappears through income, sales and other various taxes that nickel and dime us to death. That's 50% of my labor pissed away every year. A vast majority of that isn't even going to fund Government programs. It certainly isn't going towards paying off a debt that gets larger every year either. It is simply being used to pay the interest on this unfathomable debt that our selfish idiot "leaders" have gotten us all under. The entirety of my income tax I pay every April 15th is simply being used to make interest payments.

An event such as the one I'm suggesting would just put it all in writing, and make us all aware that we are really the slaves that we actually are today.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Saturday, February 16, 2008 10:56 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Actually, I thought the analysT made an interesting point. He said that the purpose of the Fed buying equities was to reinflate the market. I was left with the very distinct impression (Don't have time to go back and read the article at the moment) that he thought the stok market was already overvalued.
.

When shares are traded at several multiples of actual dividends then what we are looking at is speculation on the share price, not an accurate assessment of the value of the company. Problem is that if there was ever an "adjustment" people's 401K's and other investment vehicles would be more likely to be effected than the banks. That would make it a political issue.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 7:07 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

So basically both you the analyst pretty much acknowledge that's it's all a house of cards, based on insustainable credit and speculation (Speculation makes stocks, houses etc an alternate form credit, ie. currency.)

No wonder he's worried it'll all come down.

Thanks, as always, to corporate greed concentrating wealth faster and faster. They just can't keep themselves from killing that golden-egg laying goose, can they????

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 8:00 AM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Northern Rock to be nationalised
Quote:

The decision ends months of efforts to find a private sector rescuer for the stricken UK mortgage lender, which ran into trouble as a result of the international credit squeeze. It means that neither of the two bids for the bank, from Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin consortium and Northern Rock’s management team, have been successful. Both bidders tendered revised offers on Friday after the government threatened that the bank would be nationalised unless their proposals were improved.

The government believes nationalisation is now the best option, even though it is likely to spark a political storm, an angry reaction from some shareholders and big job losses in the north-east of England. Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, said that Goldman Sachs, which is advising the government on the bank’s future, had concluded that a “period of temporary ownership” better met the interests of taxpayers.

Deposits and savings would “remain safe and secure”, he said. The chancellor confirmed that Ron Sandler, former chief of the Lloyd’s of London insurance market, would run the bank. The government would introduce legislation for the move on Monday. UK listing authorities will suspend the company’s shares prior to opening of the London stock market. Taxpayers are subsidising the bank in loans and guarantees to other lenders totalling £55bn. Mr Darling said he expected these to be repaid.
So the lender run a predatory game, and Joe and Jane paycheck take it in the shorts.

It's not that "the government" has too much power, it's that private institutions have the power to bring an entire system to its knees.

Thanks, ya bastards.

www.ft.com/cms/s/9ba3c422-dd6e-11dc-ad7e-0000779fd2ac.html

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 8:05 AM

I think "house of cards" overstates my position. The stock market exists both as an method for investment and as a way to gamble and the two are not always compatible. So if your interest in a company is to see the best return on the investment of your capital you would probably be looking for dividends that give a return greater than inflation and better than you could get from a bank. Unfortunately there are people operating in the same market that are more interested in what the stock price of company X will be in 24 hours. Their "positions" change the dynamics of the market for the small investor. Should things crash it will become a big deal. Man-in-the-street doesn't really give a damn if an Enron or a Countrywide rolls over, he does mind if his house or his pension is threatened. THEN it becomes a political issue.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 8:18 AM

It's a Labour government, when businesses get into trouble and it will effect the wider economy they nationalise it, it's old school socialist thinking. My guess is that you probably wouldn't have objected when they did this to industrial concerns

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_plc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norton-Villiers-Triumph

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Leyland

edit:

realized in passing that Heaths Conservatives nationalized Rolls-Royce.... must be catching...

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 10:00 AM

So, in your opinion Fletch, do my statements have any merit, or am I completely off my rocker here?

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 4:08 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

6ix- What makes you think it's either-or? Yes, you're completely off your rocker

AND your statements have merit.

I think the whole financial system would have to be so deeply in the shitter than it wouldn't make any difference. The gummint'd rescue the banks and monolines first before the stock market.

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

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Sunday, February 17, 2008 9:40 PM

Truth is that even if a collapse did happen (and it's unlikely) you aren't likely to see a slide into mad Max style chaos. There will still be folks with money and folks without there would still be jobs and schools and other things. What would happen is that more US infrastructure and businesses would be owned by outsiders, the government would have to slash defence and entitlement budgets to the ground, the chances you might get a blackout in the summer or deep in the winter would probably increase and a LOT of people will end up unemployed.

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Monday, February 18, 2008 3:12 AM

CANTTAKESKY

Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
I think the whole financial system would have to be so deeply in the shitter than it wouldn't make any difference. The gummint'd rescue the banks and monolines first before the stock market.

---------------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.

Yep. I'd have to agree with Siggy here. On all of the above.

(Blowing my noisemaker.)

Except I think it will be worse than the 2nd Great Depression. It would be like the 2nd Great Depression in Nazi Germany, an economic AND political nadir.

Have you guys seen that movie, Nowhere in Africa? (The movie is about a prescient German Jew who decided to run to Kenya before the Third Reich got really crazy--despite a protesting wife who did not understand why they had to leave their cozy home in Germany when nothing was happening--yet.)

I've been feeling like running for a while now.

--------------------------
Let's party like it's 1929.
-- SignyM

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008 7:49 PM

I'm not saying that the FED would step in with benevolent intentions to "save" the market Signy. I'm talking a FED being able to walk right in and take the whole damn thing for non-payment of debts. The credit party has to end sometime, right? Simply the FED taking out the middle man and directly manipulating everything at that point. There are a few buffers now, however ineffectual.

2nd Great Depression in Germany indeed. They managed to give us all numbers last time. Sure it won't be problem getting people on board the Real ID. What else would people give up just to ease the pain of suddenly waking up in a world without much if any sense of security?

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 5:00 AM

CANTTAKESKY

6ix, I love your ad. That is hilarious.

Here's how I see it. Second Great Depression. President Hillary Clinton. (I'm pretty sure she's gonna win, and I've picked them correctly since I was 8.)

Nuff said, huh?

--------------------------
Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.
--Mark Twain

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 5:05 AM

There's actually more than that where it came from. Supposedly they're real ads and they're "viral" and nobody knows what they really mean yet. Crap... it could be an add for a new movie for all we know anymore.

I'd post a link, but I'm a few beers in it and had to dig up that Dre article already. I'll do it tonight when I'm at work if things are slow. I'm just a babysitter for our silicon friends. Usually they behave pretty well. They're not supposed to be smart enough to turn on us until 2029....

I have a link to that too, just ask me tomorrow and I'll post both of them.

Oh yeah... and if we both ever make it to Dragon con one year, I propose we make a bet. Not that I'm any happier about it than you are of Clinton, I'm giving the title to Barack Hussein Obama. Drink to either of us if we're wrong, and a drink to every browncoat in the bar from both of us if we're both wrong.

Hopefully it's nice and you'll join me outside to bs while I smoke 50 feet from the building....

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 7:15 AM

CANTTAKESKY

I'll be at DragonCon this year. We should know a lot more about the elections by then.

--------------------------
It is easier to stay out than get out.
--Mark Twain

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 4:42 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by canttakesky:
Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
I think the whole financial system would have to be so deeply in the shitter than it wouldn't make any difference. The gummint'd rescue the banks and monolines first before the stock market.

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Let's party like it's 1929.

Yep. I'd have to agree with Siggy here. On all of the above.

(Blowing my noisemaker.)

Except I think it will be worse than the 2nd Great Depression. It would be like the 2nd Great Depression in Nazi Germany, an economic AND political nadir.

Those of us that think the stock market, and this country will do fine in the long run, are busy putting our money were our mouths are. We're buying stocks while the markets have dipped because we believe this down turn will be short lived. You can do the same by buying Exchange Traded Funds that short(bet against)the US stock market. If your so sure that the good old USA is headed down the tubes, why not get rich while you watch our country implode.

Here's a web site http://tradermike.net/2007/03/list_of_inverse_short_bear_etfs_/ that lists Short ETFs for all the major markets. Good luck, your going to need it if you bet against the USA over the long run.

Disclaimer: Never bet against the USA.

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 4:47 PM

A lot of us are too busy spending 3 bucks on a dozen eggs and 4 bucks for a gallon of milk to be betting against the US market. Besides, how you going to get rich when all you have is a few million green cotton sheets of toilet paper at that point.

Now you're just being silly.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 5:02 PM

Quote:
Originally posted by 6ixStringJack:
Besides, how you going to get rich when all you have is a few million green cotton sheets of toilet paper at that point.

You must think that it's going to happen overnight. There should be plenty of time for you to dump your short positions. If the US falls it will take some time just like other failed empires throughout history.

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 5:14 PM

I don't know if it will happen overnight or not. I don't think so, becasue I don't see the point of causing worldwide panic when they've been doing just fine pushing the envelope and getting the proles to change their behavior over generations.

I'm just saying that if it continues on its slow path there will be a day when those of us not helplessly in debt will all be millionaires. Not that it makes a difference when it costs $100-$1,000 for a loaf of bread though.

I'm still playing the game. Since I'm good with my own money and have some to burn for a dumb rube who never finished college, I'm putting some in a bank, some directly into the market, some in a 401k and some in a roth IRA. Done pretty well so far too.

I'm just not counting on any of that being worth squat by the time I retire. Be nice if it were, but I'm not holding my breath. Making other plans at the same time. Putting my eggs in a lot of baskets as it were. Hopefully they'll all be there for me if I ever need them.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." http://www.myspace.com/6ixstringjack

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 10:09 PM

FREMDFIRMA

I dunno about the speed, but it strikes me that the higher tech of our day and age could indeed result in a speedy blindsiding.

-F

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Thursday, February 21, 2008 11:39 PM