"Pirates cause Global Warming" or Correlation and Causality by AnthonyT

REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

"Pirates cause Global Warming" or Correlation and Causality

POSTED BY: ANTHONYT
UPDATED: Thursday, March 26, 2009 05:48
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 1:02 PM

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

I frequently see my fellow forumites arguing over whether the Republicans or Democrats are the font of all evil in the universe. One recent issue of contention seems to be the economy. Did Clinton rescue the Economy? Did Bush destroy it? Did the Democrats in Congress dismantle the economy as soon as they came into a majority? Or did they inherit a disaster that was prepared for them? What about Obama? What blame does he have? Or was it the New World Order and the Federal Reserve? The loss of Gold in our money or the addition of Zinc?

I do not seek here to answer these questions. (Though you are free to argue about it here if you like.) What I really want to do here is to emphasize a certain reality: Correlation does not equal Causality.

That is, something may happen at the same time as something else happens, but these two somethings may have little or nothing to do with one another. There needs to be more than simple correlation in order to prove cause. Correlation is but one piece of circumstantial evidence.

To emphasize this, I bring to you one of the Holiest Tenets of the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster. That is, Pirates, or a Lack of Pirates, cause Global Warming.

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Spaghetti_Monster#Pirates_and_glob
al_warming

Thus, my friends, if the economy boomed under Clinton, that alone does not prove Clinton improved the economy.

If the economy busted under Bush, that alone does not prove Bush ruined the economy.

If the economy busted during a Democratic Congressional majority, it similarly means little.

The warring tag-lines stating the contrary are arguing badly- that is, with poor technique. It is the style of arguing where you say something that sounds good in a convincing way, but you haven't really said anything at all. Correlation is one piece of evidence, but it is not enough evidence to prove anything by itself. I guess in the current pop vernacular, you might call Correlation Tags a form of "Gotcha Incrimination or Vindication."

I know little about the economy. I know only enough to form primitive, probably ill-conceived opinions. I'd love to learn more from my fellows on this board, but that requires opposing viewpoints and arguments that go deeper than "We've never seen Clark Kent and Superman in the room at the same time." It might be true, after all... But we can do better.

--Anthony

P.S. I am also guilty of this style of faulty arguing technique, and do not dare place myself above any of you in that regard.

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 1:35 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Beh, they're all feckless curs and morons.

If you spend more than you're taking in, you are a financially irresponsible shitheel no matter what party you belong to.

-F

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 1:43 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

"Beh, they're all feckless curs and morons.

If you spend more than you're taking in, you are a financially irresponsible shitheel no matter what party you belong to."

Hello,

LOL! Frem, this is the kind of simplistic thinking I have with my flawed understanding of economics.

And yet, I do not live my life by even this rudimentary understanding of finance. I have borrowed money to buy things at several times in my life.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 2:49 PM

FINN MAC CUMHAL

The economy works like this. I bust my ass to earn a good living, keep my debt low, invest wisely and purchase a house I can afford., Then 5% of the country, constituting the concentration of morons in the US population, spend recklessly, invest unwisely and purchase things they can't afford, and they rewarded with government bailouts, buyouts and passes so that the powers that be can spoon with their voters and push the US further towards a socialist nanny state. While the 95% of the country that is doing everything right, is rewarded with declining dollars, falling stock markets and government promises that can never be kept.

Nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

Nothing is more unpredictable than the mob, nothing more obscure than public opinion, nothing more deceptive than the whole political system.

-- Cicero

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 2:55 PM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important

Hello,

Finn, I must confess to being part of your problem. I purchased a house on an ARM with an intention to refinance after a year of good payment history. Now my house is worth a third of what I bought it for, and I can scarcely afford the payments for much longer. Barring a miracle, the bank will be foreclosing on the home before the year is up. Thus negatively impacting the property values of my responsible and innocent neighbors.

I feel badly about it all. I wish I'd waited to buy. I'd be in a different world.

--Anthony

"Liberty must not be purchased at the cost of Humanity." --Captain Robert Henner

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009 11:59 PM

FREMDFIRMA

Thankfully Fremgirl took my advice (for once) and rolled her 401K into a House within her means, with a hefty downpayment, fixed rate and a set of terms that all but one have been quite the benefit - and since she intends to LIVE there, the reduction in value doesn't bother her so very much, especially since it lowered her property taxes.

Funny, that... it's one of the few times she trusted my advice, and while everyone else was choking on worthless paper when their 401K's imploded, we were moving into an actual home.

The one term which didn't help, and I paid a good deal of extra money to have included, that under NO circumstances whatever would the loan ever be sold to or placed in the hands of citigroup or any of it's companies or properties - to do so would constitute breach of the whole.

Several months after we moved in, they did *EXACTLY* that, and we find out after the fact that actually trying to enforce that provision would cost more than paying off the mortgage entire.

As you can imagine, I am dancing with glee at citibanks financial implosion at the moment, with a side order of using contrived identities to pump-dump the stock and destroy whatever remaining confidence is had in it.

I'm holding a grudge about that quite unreasonably, I am well aware, especially since they burned my now-ex, rather than me personally, but it's MY grudge and they do imho deserve payback for being effectively above the law to most of the folks they screw.

And let's not even go there about their tendancy to change the payment amount by minimal increments, change the payment date without notice, or even cash the payment check for 1/10th of it's face value in an attempt to force a "missed" payment and initiate foreclosure however criminally they need to act in order to contrive it.

*hiisssss*

That's ONE financial institution I WANT to see crash and burn.

-Frem

It cannot be said enough, those who do not learn from history, are doomed to endlessly repeat it

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Thursday, March 26, 2009 5:48 AM

RIVERDANCER

Quote:
Originally posted by Finn mac Cumhal:
5% of the country, constituting the concentration of morons in the US population, spend recklessly, invest unwisely and purchase things they can't afford, and they rewarded with government bailouts, buyouts and passes

Those are going to private citizens now? Huh.

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