REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

One nuke for you, two for us...

POSTED BY: CHRISISALL
UPDATED: Thursday, May 7, 2009 11:05
SHORT URL:
VIEWED: 1875
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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 5:23 AM

CHRISISALL


So, our pal Pakistan is collapsing before our eyes. Okay, this is a REAL threat, I grant you.
What do y'all think we should do about this?
Or did our pet project in Iraq drain us too completely to effectively deal with this?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/warning-that-pakistan-is-in-danger-of-coll
apse-within-months-20090412-a40u.html


Quote:

"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/opinion/18kagan.html
Quote:

AS the government of Pakistan totters, we must face a fact: the United States simply could not stand by as a nuclear-armed Pakistan descended into the abyss. Nor would it be strategically prudent to withdraw our forces from an improving situation in Iraq to cope with a deteriorating one in Pakistan. We need to think — now — about our feasible military options in Pakistan, should it really come to that.



The laughing Chrisisall

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 6:15 AM

STARTROOP


I'll answer your second question first. No, Iraq didn't completely strap us for resources. We have the ponies IF we declare War, call up the Reserves and the National Guard (not just mess with their lives as we have until now, but call them up and federalize them as in WWII). The question here is will we. We have a president that campaigned successfully on an anti-war platform. I find it difficult to imagine him asking Congress for that power.

If we accept this as a serious world crisis though, we can certainly develop significant assets on our own in short order. The Indians have a huge military and are the logical first target of Pakistan (they have fought a couple of Wars). They would be very concerned about a collapse there so we can probably count on some support there if we go to War. Israel is quite rightly very concerned about a hardline Islamic takeover in Pakistan. Their assets are not insignificant in relation to intelligence and covert operations.

Add to the fact that in the world of real military power, Pakistan is not really strong. Their troops are poorly paid, poorly led, and poorly motivated. They, in essence, rent out significant portions of it to other Muslim nations (Saudi Arabia being one of them) and international peace keeping forces so they don't have to pay for its upkeep. They could incinerate some things with nuclear weapons, but fighting a war where they want to retain control of something would be difficult for them.

Revolutions are only successful if the current government is not governing with the acquiessence of the populous. They (the Pakistani's)won't fight hard and those who would replace them don't really know how to fight a field army.

So can we do something? The answer is yes, with significant leadership and backbone.

Here is the discussion on the first question. What should we do? Do we jump off the cliff like we did in Iraq and launch a pre-emptive strike? Do we wait until they launch a nuclear weapon? In either case, we would be commited for the the next 25 years while we rebuilt their whole culture. We have been successful in this sort of endeavor in the past (See Japan, Germany, and South Korea) but those troops have been in place for more than 50 years. I believe We don't have to political will to do that in this day and age and if we don't, we will end up in another quagmire because we won't decide to fish or cut bait.

Sanctions have a poor track record and keeping the status quo over there isn't so hot either. Do a little homework on the current government in Pakistan and you will find out that they are not all sweetness and light, in fact, they are only marginally better than what would replace them.

So the really hard question is "What should we do?" I don't have an asnwer. I am not even sure I have posed the question properly.

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 6:33 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


So maybe the US should not have undermined Pervez Musharraf ?


Once again US intervention into the politics of a sovereign nation blows up in your faces.


What to do ? well the first solutions is fix your own foreign policy problems once and for all,

and that may be the only solution the shambles of your economy will support,




" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 7:03 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Musharraf came to power from a military coup that toppled the legitimate government. The USA had nothing to do with that. All we ever did was give him money in exchange for some very limited cooperation towards our efforts. He took constant heat from radicals within his country for only having a mere pretext of friendship with America.

The way I see it, the ignorant Muslims there who've been clamoring for fundamentalism and jihad for years, now get their wish come true. They can find out just how swell life's gonna be under fundamentalism and Taliban brutality.

As for their nukes, I think India will do what it has to do, much like Israel as well, to eliminate any real threat.

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 8:47 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
Musharraf came to power from a military coup that toppled the legitimate government. The USA had nothing to do with that. All we ever did was give him money in exchange for some very limited cooperation towards our efforts. He took constant heat from radicals within his country for only having a mere pretext of friendship with America.

The way I see it, the ignorant Muslims there who've been clamoring for fundamentalism and jihad for years, now get their wish come true. They can find out just how swell life's gonna be under fundamentalism and Taliban brutality.

As for their nukes, I think India will do what it has to do, much like Israel as well, to eliminate any real threat.



You make my point, who is the US to say who is the " legitimate government. Is democracy the only acceptable system ? in that case then the Saudis and the Emirate among others are not legit either.

As for the coup, my understanding is that the former government was caught looting the treasury and moving it into personal offshore accounts etc, is not a change in government in that case a GOOD THING?

and don't get me started on Israel





" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 10:24 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Gino stole my thunder here, but allow me to point out the fallacy of us having nuclear weapons as a "deterrent" if they deter nothing.

Or perhaps, lemme hand that off to M Rivero.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/trinitite.html

We got enough nukes to glass the planet like six times over, along with all the mess, resource consumption and expense of building and maintaining them - if they're no deterrent, then why did we do that ?

-F

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 10:28 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


In a Ralphie Wiggum voice:

And I'm just posting so I can change the title !

***************************************************************

On second thought, maybe the stated US policy should be - we won't start it, but if you nuke us - your country is nuclear glass. Just so you know going in ...

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 10:31 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
In a Ralphie Wiggum voice:

And I'm just posting so I can change the title !



I find your honesty refreshing. :)



Mike

Build a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day...
Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 12:04 PM

STARTROOP


Like I said, I don't know the answer. My wife's advice for the whole of the Middle East was to build a huge wall around it and then keep throwing ammunition over the wall until the shooting stops.

Not practical or possible, but elegant in a macabre sort of way. One of the reasons I have stayed married for 30 plus years ;-)

I will say this much though. In terms of military action, amateurs study tactics and strategy, professionals study logistics. An unstable Pakistan means that we can't continue to fight a war in Afganistan.

There are no ports there (check a map) and so the only way to get supplies, troops, equipment, etc .... is to go through places like Pakistan, or ex-Soviet states.

Pakistan is the closest sea port to Afganistan. Unfortunately, the Pakistani's won't let us safeguard the truck convoys so fully a quarter of them are attacked and robbed. It will only get worse as the situation destabilizes. IF we move to safeguard the convoys, we will be in the war and the battle to move supplies into Afganistan will overshadow the war there.

Moving stuff through other countries is prohibitively expenseive and the legal environment in the ex-Soviet states is "fluid" at best. It wouldn't be an improvement to move supplies through there and every state and village would attempt to figure out a way to get money from the US.

Don't think about air resupply because the operation is, even at the current under supported level, beyond our airlift capability.

MY country relatives have a saying for this. "it looks like we are about to put our tender male sexual appendage into the wringer". I cleaned it up a bit for the more delicate reader ;-)

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 12:22 PM

WHOZIT


Oh com'on, would anybody really miss Iran if it disapeared? Chances are they'll blow themselves up before anyone else does it for them.

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 12:25 PM

STARTROOP


Just a point of clarification; I thought we were talking about Afganistan and Pakistan? I don't see the Iran reference?

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 12:40 PM

WHOZIT


Quote:

Originally posted by startroop:
Just a point of clarification; I thought we were talking about Afganistan and Pakistan? I don't see the Iran reference?

I thought the chat was about ALL loonatics with or about to have nukes.

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 1:13 PM

STARTROOP


In that case, the real threat is whether they do actually keep the weapons and use them locally (i.e. nuking Israel or India) or whether we would be the target?

That takes us into the realm of science fiction which is oddly appropirate given the site ;-)

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 1:22 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by whozit:
Quote:

Originally posted by startroop:
Just a point of clarification; I thought we were talking about Afganistan and Pakistan? I don't see the Iran reference?

I thought the chat was about ALL loonatics with or about to have nukes.




Including the American ones




" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 1:31 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Three points

" They (the Pakistani's)won't fight hard and those who would replace them don't really know how to fight a field army. "

So, they are then pushed into using terrorist tactics, thereby making your original problem tenfold larger, while your action would likely erode international support.


" We have been successful in this sort of endeavor in the past (See Japan, Germany, and South Korea) "

The way the US has conducted itself it setting up the Afghan government runs contrary to almost everything MacArthur managed to do in Japan. Hard to hold up past examples of successes when you ignore the how and whys of that success.


" significant leadership and backbone "


where you gonna find that?







" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 8:01 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:

My wife's advice for the whole of the Middle East was to build a huge wall around it and then keep throwing ammunition over the wall until the shooting stops.

I like that idea!

Really though, whatever militant leader came up with the idea of blocking the Kyhber pass on us is a VERY dangerous fellow, and one we should most certainly try to negotiate with, cause the bastard has our number good and solid.

-F

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Wednesday, May 6, 2009 8:46 PM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT


If ya could stuff the genie back in the bottle, the answer might have been to do something really cruelly vengeful to Afghanistan after 9/11, and leave Iraq alone. Dunno how vengeful-- Nuke everything there back to the Stone Age? which wouldn't take much. Neutron bomb the place, kill all the folks and leave the place intact? Saturation bomb the place with nukes, leave it glowing and poisioned for the rest of human history?
Then clobber ANYBODY who supported them or complained, even verbally.

WE shoulda stayed out of the entire place, a place where we can't understand 'em, and can't change 'em.

Since we didn't, we're stuck with the Pottery Barn rule: we broke it, now we gotta buy it. And the more we thrash around like the Old Bull in the china shop, the more stuff we bust, and the more we gotta buy.

'Bout the only other solution is to walk away, declare victory, and forget about the entire place.

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 6:19 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:
Quote:

My wife's advice for the whole of the Middle East was to build a huge wall around it and then keep throwing ammunition over the wall until the shooting stops.

I like that idea!

Really though, whatever militant leader came up with the idea of blocking the Kyhber pass on us is a VERY dangerous fellow, and one we should most certainly try to negotiate with, cause the bastard has our number good and solid.

-F



Hell, anyone who has read the history of the area could see that one coming, the British struggled for years to keep that pass open back in the day.



" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 6:30 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by NewOldBrownCoat:
If ya could stuff the genie back in the bottle, the answer might have been to do something really cruelly vengeful to Afghanistan after 9/11, and leave Iraq alone. Dunno how vengeful-- Nuke everything there back to the Stone Age? which wouldn't take much. Neutron bomb the place, kill all the folks and leave the place intact? Saturation bomb the place with nukes, leave it glowing and poisioned for the rest of human history?
Then clobber ANYBODY who supported them or complained, even verbally.

WE shoulda stayed out of the entire place, a place where we can't understand 'em, and can't change 'em.

Since we didn't, we're stuck with the Pottery Barn rule: we broke it, now we gotta buy it. And the more we thrash around like the Old Bull in the china shop, the more stuff we bust, and the more we gotta buy.

'Bout the only other solution is to walk away, declare victory, and forget about the entire place.




Afghanistan, under the Taliban were will to discuss the extradition of Bin Laden and others...

Only problem is the US had to present evidence that he was actually behind it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1539468.stm

http://archives.tcm.ie/breakingnews/2001/09/18/story24069.asp


If the US had of acted like you proposed, Americans would be hunted down and killed worldwide, without a whole lot of sympathy from anyone either...


And frankly it would be deserved









" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 6:53 AM

RUE

I have a vote and I'm not afraid to use it!


That whole thing about Aghanistan being willing to give up bin Laden as long as there was some evidence and as long as he went to the ICC or EU - and the US refusing the deal - it went past most people.

***************************************************************

Silence is consent.

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 7:33 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by rue:
That whole thing about Aghanistan being willing to give up bin Laden as long as there was some evidence and as long as he went to the ICC or EU - and the US refusing the deal - it went past most people.

***************************************************************

Silence is consent.




That was a tragedy in itself, the Taliban could'nt just hand him over, he was a national hero in their fight against the Soviets, and spent more money on reconstruction there after the war than the west ever did.

Mind you extradition hearings are due process right? and by handing some of the decision off to the ICC or whomever, they save face with their own people.

Mind you, what evidence would the US presented?

It has been admitted that the videos shown on TV to rile up public support were edited ( to what extend nobody knows ) and I think Rue once brought up that much of the translations were a little sketchy.

I wonder just how much of the evidence would be valid enough for a court of law... any confessions from the result of torture would automatically be thrown out. Any edited or modified video thrown out, and since the raw footage has never been released.... hmmmm

Forget the 911 commission, forget all the propaganda nonsense that has been thrown out there.... picture a real trial, a public trial with actual rules of evidence and procedure being run by an impartial authority.


I would love to see that.




" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 7:41 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:

If the US had of acted like you proposed, Americans would be hunted down and killed worldwide, without a whole lot of sympathy from anyone either...


And frankly it would be deserved.

Gino, I detect some animosity here- don't forget the Americans that ARE world-friendly, and disagree with their government's hawkish policies.
Just sayin'.


The laughing Chrisisall

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 7:56 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by chrisisall:
Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:

If the US had of acted like you proposed, Americans would be hunted down and killed worldwide, without a whole lot of sympathy from anyone either...


And frankly it would be deserved.

Gino, I detect some animosity here- don't forget the Americans that ARE world-friendly, and disagree with their government's hawkish policies.
Just sayin'.


The laughing Chrisisall



And if you had of nuked Afghanistan as Newoldbrowncoat had suggested, it wouldn't matter


how may Germans or Japanese were pro-war ? they were bombed just the same, whether they were or not.

In this age, it seems impossible for anyone such as the UN or the ICC to hold the US government accountable for anything.....

and it seems throughout history people are held to account for the actions of their government, if one cannot immediately hold that government to account.


are the effects of the sanctions against Iran felt directly by the Iranian president?

did the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who died as a direct result of the US sanctions really do anything directly to ole Saddam?

How long has the US gov been running amuck throught the world messing up shit to satisfy their own short term agendas ?

How long would Americans put up with it, if it were a foreign power doing exactly the same to them ?


Maybe I do get a little hot, when I read ignorant kill them all bullshit like that post... but hey...

if " Americans that ARE world-friendly, and disagree with their government's hawkish policies "

were really true, I would be speaking alone here right





" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 8:11 AM

CHRISISALL


Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:

How long would Americans put up with it, if it were a foreign power doing exactly the same to them ?



Not for a second.


The laughing Chrisisall

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 8:12 AM

STARTROOP


I get the feeling that what I said and what you read were two different things. My apologies if what I said wasn't clear. This may just be the fact that we are communicating via the internet instead in person but my point was that we have the ability to do something in Pakistan, but that anything we do is fraught with consequences we haven't been historically good at forecasting and often requires long term consistancy in policy that we can't seem to provide anymore.

Your reference to McArthur is just that. It worked in Japan because frankly, McArthur set himself up as the sole power in the country and because he was very smart (if somewhat eccentric) he was able to provide a consistent policy.

I said it would take many more years than our society, after having been conditioned by TV with it's 38 minute solution to every problem extent, is willing to carry out. I think we said the same things.

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 9:21 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT


Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:

If the US had of acted like you proposed, Americans would be hunted down and killed worldwide, without a whole lot of sympathy from anyone either...


And frankly it would be deserved



Which is why I said maybe we should have done that. But MAYBE some extreme action, like A- bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki in retaliation for Pearl Harbor, MIGHT have scared somebody enough to make them think that attacking America is a very expensive idea and deterred later attacks. And it MIGHT have made it clear that there are some lines in the sand that one had better not cross with America.







" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 10:55 AM

JONGSSTRAW


We dropped the A-bomb on Japan twice, but neither was a "retaliation" for Pearl Harbor. I hope you don't think that becuase it's dead wrong. We had island-hopped our way across the Pacific. The closer we got to Japan the worse the fighting got. Okinawa was the last big island and sea battle and it was total war, kamikazes, and the kitchen sink thrown at us. It was clear that they would fight to the very last man, and it would cost untold more thousands of American lives. Truman made a decision to drop one bomb on Hiroshima to prevent the necessity of a land invasion. When the Japanese didn't surrender he made the decision to drop a second. Neither Truman or even the people that invented the Bomb fully knew what the results were going to be in terms of casualites. The lingering radiation deaths and disfigurements were not anticipated as it had no precedent. It was a penultimate event which brought a rapid end to years of bloodshed.

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 10:55 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by startroop:
I get the feeling that what I said and what you read were two different things. My apologies if what I said wasn't clear. This may just be the fact that we are communicating via the internet instead in person but my point was that we have the ability to do something in Pakistan, but that anything we do is fraught with consequences we haven't been historically good at forecasting and often requires long term consistancy in policy that we can't seem to provide anymore.

Your reference to McArthur is just that. It worked in Japan because frankly, McArthur set himself up as the sole power in the country and because he was very smart (if somewhat eccentric) he was able to provide a consistent policy.

I said it would take many more years than our society, after having been conditioned by TV with it's 38 minute solution to every problem extent, is willing to carry out. I think we said the same things.



Another advantage MacArthur had that we will never see again is the lack of someone backseat driving. Advances in commutations unfortunately mean you could put the right man in the right place, but then constantly screw with the decisions he has to make.

And your 38 minute idea is very valid, I have often thought it more like a four year problem with scrambling to gain favor for elections doing more damage than good.



" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 10:57 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by NewOldBrownCoat:
Quote:

Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:

If the US had of acted like you proposed, Americans would be hunted down and killed worldwide, without a whole lot of sympathy from anyone either...


And frankly it would be deserved



Which is why I said maybe we should have done that. But MAYBE some extreme action, like A- bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki in retaliation for Pearl Harbor, MIGHT have scared somebody enough to make them think that attacking America is a very expensive idea and deterred later attacks. And it MIGHT have made it clear that there are some lines in the sand that one had better not cross with America.







" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939





That is one line I do not think the US could afford to cross, the retaliation to it would go on for decades.



" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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Thursday, May 7, 2009 11:05 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
We dropped the A-bomb on Japan twice, but neither was a "retaliation" for Pearl Harbor. I hope you don't think that becuase it's dead wrong. We had island-hopped our way across the Pacific. The closer we got to Japan the worse the fighting got. Okinawa was the last big island and sea battle and it was total war, kamikazes, and the kitchen sink thrown at us. It was clear that they would fight to the very last man, and it would cost untold more thousands of American lives. Truman made a decision to drop one bomb on Hiroshima to prevent the necessity of a land invasion. When the Japanese didn't surrender he made the decision to drop a second. Neither Truman or even the people that invented the Bomb fully knew what the results were going to be in terms of casualites. The lingering radiation deaths and disfigurements were not anticipated as it had no precedent. It was a penultimate event which brought a rapid end to years of bloodshed.



I was referring more to the bottom line, the consequences to a people who may or make not have supported what their gov was doing.

Death, bombed out cities etc

This is either a result of supporting the actions of that government or as a result of failing to stop the actions of that government.

Now in comparison the input a citizen has in WW2 Japan vs present day USA, the citizen in todays USA in theory has a magnitude more input. I think they also have a magnitude more responsibility for the actions of that government,

but the consequences for allowing your government to run amuck remain the same as they always have been.

As Rue says, silence is consent right




" They don't hate America, they hate Americans " Homer Simpson


Lets party like its 1939

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