REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE AFGHAN TUNNEL?

POSTED BY: GINOBIFFARONI
UPDATED: Saturday, February 13, 2010 12:02
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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 12:24 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


http://www.ericmargolis.com/political_commentaries/light-at-the-end-of
-the-afghan-tunnel.aspx


LIGHT AT THE END OF THE AFGHAN TUNNEL?
February 01, 2010
Is it finally light at the end of the Afghan tunnel, or an oncoming express train? Total confusion erupted last week as the US, NATO, the UN and the Kabul government all issued differing views on new plans to end the nine year Afghan war by bombarding Taliban with tens of millions in cash instead of precision bombs.
One thing is clear: the US and its NATO allies are losing the war in Afghanistan in spite of their fearsome arsenal of high tech weapons and war chests of billions of dollars.

Lightly-armed Pashtun tribesmen are living up to their legendary reputation of making Afghanistan the graveyard of empires.

So Washington and London, both in dire financial straits, say they are now ready for a possible peace deal with the Pashtun Taliban and its nationalist allies. But, in spite of a $1.4 trillion deficit, President Barack Obama is asking Congress for an additional $33 billion more for the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

If you can’t bomb them into submission, then try buying them off.

A conference was held in London last Thursday to raise tens of millions of dollars to try to bribe lower level Taliban to cooperate with the western occupation and/or lay down its arms.

Bribery is a time-honored tool of war. But it’s not the answer in Afghanistan. The bloody Afghan conflict can only be ended by genuine peace negotiations and withdrawal of all foreign troops.

US commanders in Afghanistan admit they have lost the military initiative. The resistance is steadily gaining ground. Obama’s increasing US and allied troops to 150,000 won’t be enough to defeat Taliban. By year end, US and NATO forces will only equal the number of Soviet forces committed to Afghanistan in the 1980’s.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, without whose cooperation the US cannot wage war in Afghanistan, is in turmoil. The US is infiltrating Xe (formerly Blackwater) and DynCorp mercenaries into Pakistan to protect US military supply routes north from Karachi to Afghanistan, and to operate or defend US air bases in Pakistan.

US mercenaries are also reportedly being used to assassinate militants and enemies of Pakistan’s US-installed government, and to target Pakistan’s nuclear installations for future US action. This, and increasing attacks by US killer drones, have sparked outrage across Pakistan and brought warnings of creeping US occupation.

US and NATO forces in Afghanistan are like a man trying to fix a chimney on the roof of a burning house.

As Pakistan burns, so will Afghanistan. Seventy-five percent of all US and NATO supplies for Afghanistan pass through Pakistan. This past weekend, the first time, NATO supply convoys were attacked by militants in the port of Karachi.

Washington lacks the men, money, and understanding to deal with chaotic Pakistan - never mind chaotic Afghanistan.

Washington, London, Ottawa, Berlin and Paris share the same problem: their war propaganda has so demonized Taliban as terrorists and woman abusers that western politicians are petrified to deal with the tribal movement, and risk being accused of sending soldiers to their deaths in a futile war. The far right will howl “appeasement,” “giving in to terrorism,” and “betraying our boys.”

These advocates of permanent war and torture should be ignored. Afghans have suffered over 3 million deaths in 30 years of wars. They desperately need peace, political stability, and rebuilding, not the current western-installed puppet regime of thieving war lords, drug mafias, and thugs of the old Afghan Communist Party.

The best thing we can do for our western soldiers is to get them out of the Afghan morass before they die in this pointless war, or get stuck there for decades.

The west can’t “win” in Afghanistan. In fact, Washington cannot even define what victory means. The intelligent, straight-talking American ambassador to Kabul, former general Karl Eikenberry, as well a as VP Joe Biden, insist it’s time to start peace talks. We should heed their sensible advice.

The US and its allies need a face-saving way out of Afghanistan. Real peace talks are the answer. Not the ruse long proposed by US Gen. Stanley McChrystal to try to bribe away low-ranking Taliban and so split the Afghan resistance.

This stratagem worked to a degree with Sunni tribesmen in Iraq, but is unlikely to succeed with the proud Pashtun tribes who value honor more than money. Theirs is an antique concept most westerners cannot understand.

Taliban, an anti-Communist religious movement, knew nothing about al-Qaida’s plans to attack the United States. That plot was hatched in Europe, not Afghanistan. Many members of the anti-Communist Taliban and its allies Hisbi Islami and the Haqqani group were former allies of the west and were hailed by President Ronald Reagan as `freedom fighters.’

After 9/11, Taliban refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to the enraged United States without proper evidence of his guilt because he was an honored guest and hero of the anti-Soviet jihad.

Taliban chose war with the US before betraying a guest. Such men are not to be easily bought.





Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2010




The last two paragraphs are the most telling...

but

" US and NATO forces in Afghanistan are like a man trying to fix a chimney on the roof of a burning house. "

is a great line





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 12:35 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Oh look! It's a train!

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:15 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:
Originally posted by SignyM:
Oh look! It's a train!


Several. ;) And they're all on the same track, yet headed in different directions. Wonder how this'll turn out!

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:48 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
new plans to end the nine year Afghan war by bombarding Taliban with tens of millions in cash

Quote:
But, in spite of a $1.4 trillion deficit, President Barack Obama is asking Congress for an additional $33 billion more for the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

If you can’t bomb them into submission, then try buying them off.


What a drama queen this guy is.

$1 million = $1/1000 billion = $1/1000000 trillion.

Therefore "tens of millions" = a tiny fraction of the war budget, and a drop in the ocean of the deficit... Even as a gamble, it strikes me as good value for money. A shot to nothing, you could say.

Heads should roll

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 3:22 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
new plans to end the nine year Afghan war by bombarding Taliban with tens of millions in cash

Quote:
But, in spite of a $1.4 trillion deficit, President Barack Obama is asking Congress for an additional $33 billion more for the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

If you can’t bomb them into submission, then try buying them off.


What a drama queen this guy is.

$1 million = $1/1000 billion = $1/1000000 trillion.

Therefore "tens of millions" = a tiny fraction of the war budget, and a drop in the ocean of the deficit... Even as a gamble, it strikes me as good value for money.

Heads should roll


The problem is even if it works, it is not a long term solution...

this is a short term political gamble, which at best would only allow Obama to say progress is being made...

You would still have an Afghanistan where the government is control by thugs, warlords, and drug dealers who also btw come from an ethnic minority ( %15 or so ) which the rest of the country will not accept.

Amnestys have been tried before, then a month later the guys who layed down their arms were picked up and worked over.

After they were released they of course headed back into the hills, and began to fight with a newfound conviction.

And of course those who do throw there lot in with the west need a big paycheck... big enough to get themselves out when they are left to their fates in a few years

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/graham_stewart/art
icle2237419.ece

( Not right on point, but interesting none the less )

Short term solutions are what made a mess of this back in 2002, this one while less dangerous than some of the previous schemes will still accomplish little, only than to draw effort away from the real issues Afghanis have against what is going on in their country.





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 4:07 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
new plans to end the nine year Afghan war by bombarding Taliban with tens of millions in cash

Quote:
But, in spite of a $1.4 trillion deficit, President Barack Obama is asking Congress for an additional $33 billion more for the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan.

If you can’t bomb them into submission, then try buying them off.


What a drama queen this guy is.

$1 million = $1/1000 billion = $1/1000000 trillion.

Therefore "tens of millions" = a tiny fraction of the war budget, and a drop in the ocean of the deficit... Even as a gamble, it strikes me as good value for money. A shot to nothing, you could say.

Heads should roll



I think I want YOU to be my loan officer next time I head to the bank. After all, I'm only borrowing a few millionths of a trillion; what could go wrong?


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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:37 PM

GEEZER

Keep the Shiny side up


Quote:
Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
Washington, London, Ottawa, Berlin and Paris share the same problem: their war propaganda has so demonized Taliban as terrorists and woman abusers...


From what I heard on The Kojo Nnamdi Show today, the women of Afghanistan also consider the Taliban to be abusers of women.

http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2010-02-02/shaky-partnerships-war-t
error

"Keep the Shiny side up"

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:54 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by Geezer:
Quote:
Originally posted by GinoBiffaroni:
Washington, London, Ottawa, Berlin and Paris share the same problem: their war propaganda has so demonized Taliban as terrorists and woman abusers...


From what I heard on The Kojo Nnamdi Show today, the women of Afghanistan also consider the Taliban to be abusers of women.

http://thekojonnamdishow.org/shows/2010-02-02/shaky-partnerships-war-t
error

"Keep the Shiny side up"


I think you would find that to be the same of everybody there,

the writers point is the media, with the encouragement of the governments involved have demonized the opposition to the point that any negotiations become very difficult politically back home.

from your cite

" The U.S. is trying to shore up security at home through military action and development assistance abroad in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. But what happens when our partners on the ground have different priorities than we do? Kojo explores our shaky alliances in the War on Terror. "

I would add Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel amongst others to that list, if the propaganda was to be taken at face value... then the war on terror really would be a crusade to wipe out cultures that differ to our desires, and many of our so called allies would be high up on the target list.


The same sort of thing is happening in Iraq now as well, with former members of the Ba'ath Party banned from public office it has left a good many people disenfranchised, and a good many people who might choose to help calm things down outside the system.





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:55 PM

FREMDFIRMA



Cause they are.
Seriously, RAWA hates Kharazi, the damn Fundie Tribal Elders, the Northern Alliance Warlords, AND the goddamn Taliban, all for damned good reasons.

I know education is probably more of an answer than violence, but I certainly wouldn't mind em being a *little* more militant about it...

-F

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Tuesday, February 2, 2010 8:13 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma:

Cause they are.
Seriously, RAWA hates Kharazi, the damn Fundie Tribal Elders, the Northern Alliance Warlords, AND the goddamn Taliban, all for damned good reasons.

I know education is probably more of an answer than violence, but I certainly wouldn't mind em being a *little* more militant about it...

-F


This isn't something that can be changed at gunpoint Frem,

the more the " outsiders " push them the more backlash there will be. Thats just human nature.

Unless the west wants to police Afghanistan the next ten generations, with the other problems that would cause, this is not an issue to be dealt with immediately, and certainly not by those in power there right now.

Change takes time, and will never happen in a fight...








Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 9:05 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:
From what I heard on The Kojo Nnamdi Show today, the women of Afghanistan also consider the Taliban to be abusers of women.
CONSIDER? Hah! They ARE, no question about it, it’s been proven over and over and over again. There’s no “consider” about it; they KNOW. (Sorry, painful subject) I could say the same for Frem, obviously, we share a hatred that is red hot where this issue is concerned. Education IS the better option in the long run, but as Fem and I and millions of others know full well, you have to have the RIGHT to education first. Hell, you have to have ANY rights, which they essentially don’t. And won’t if the Taliban win, at least not for a long, LONG time.

They HAD them, that’s what hurts the worst. When we were there women were just being allowed into universities, education for girls was just starting, women who’d left were coming back as doctors; it looked like a beginning. This will be back to the stone age.

Yes, change takes time, and the world has been asking Afghanistan to come forward two thousand years in a few decades, and it can’t be done that easily. But the Taliban wants to take it backward hundreds of years, and in the end I fear will get their way.

Afghanistan is usually too painful a subject for me to think about, at least what’s happening there now is. I admit I bury my head; I just can’t look it right in the eye anymore. I pretty much figure we'll abandon them to the Taliban in the end--while I can't truly blame anyone at this point in time, it's immeasurably sad and I grieve. If ONLY Dumbya hadn’t abandoned it back in the beginning, I believe things would have gone so differently. Damn him to hell with his little private war.



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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 11:30 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
Change takes time, and will never happen in a fight...

Change certainly won't happen under the Taliban. Are you not in favour of fighting fascism, to stop it taking over?

Ok, by continuing to fight the taliban we turn parts of the country into warzones, and we have to occupy the country militarily. But this enables much of the country to prosper and allows girls to go to school. I'd suggest these are better conditions for change than surrendering the country to the taliban.

Heads should roll

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 1:51 PM

FREMDFIRMA


Alas I am aware of that, Gino.

Thing is, what they oughta do is find some land nobody else is using and just break off from that fucked up society entire - played right with some support from international elements, they could spin it as a social release valve and have at least some of these jerks playing along, at least till the threat to their power becomes obvious.

At which point, they'll do the only thing they know HOW to do about it...

At which point, a certain amount of militancy is all but necessary.

Sooner or later one or more factions is GOING to make a concerted effort to destroy them, and it sickens me that since eventually the State Dept is prolly gonna label em terrorists as a sop to their fundamentalist puppets, that faction is prolly gonna have military and logistical backing from us, on my tax dime...

And THAT, Gino - that makes me wanna puke.

Fuck nationalism, were it to come to that unfortunate pass, I'd be much gratified if that faction and whatever support we put behind it got it's damn clock cleaned.

No, you can't really force social change at the barrel of a gun, unless you're willing to massacre everyone who doesn't believe the way you do - and let's be blunt here, the fundamentalists ARE.

Defending oneself against that isn't a matter of reason and negotiation, would that it were - but it is a matter of survival.

Education doesn't help corpses.

-F

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 2:08 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Thank you, KPO. I'm hesitant to express my visceral wish that we'd stay and accomplish something--at least keep the Taliban from taking over--because I know it's not the popular one, and because the other half of my wish is to bring our guys home. It's really heartening to read your sentiment, nonetheless.

Frem: Everything you said...unfortunately



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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 2:12 PM

BYTEMITE


Kpo: Technically, the Taliban is a theocracy and an authoritarian state. Fascism and authoritarianism are often synonymous, but using the exact definition of the terms, the Taliban isn't fascist because as far as I'm aware the Taliban doesn't have a state controlled economy.

Authoritarianism is bad enough, though.

See, you have a good point, but this is the problem. The United States really can't afford to be going around putting down all oppressive societies around the world, and it actually looks bad when we target some of them but ally with others. And it also looks bad if we invade to depose a government if, to the rest of the world, it's uncertain if we have the popular support of the region we're invading.

Now, I can understand if your feelings to that are screw appearances. But the problem is, that's what creates insurgents that suicide bomb bunches of innocents. It's a PR thing, you can't force help on people, they have to accept it.

We should definitely be trying to support women's rights groups in Afghanistan. And there's been voting, and girls going to school, and progress, but I don't think it's been remotely peaceful or stable in the areas we've "secured" so I think it's too soon to tell if we've had any positive influence.

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 2:50 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Niki, what I am suggesting is that trying to force such change down their throats will not work...

The harder you push the more resistance you will find.

From what I read of the Pashtun, that has been a historic fact... would your experiences over there show it to be different ?


KPO, what the west is installing their now is a semi democratic fascist state, who respects womens rights little more than the Taliban, how is that progress ?


The thing of it is, if a free vote happened tomorrow, no picked candidates, no rigged outcomes... the Taliban would likely fair very well

How to institute change ?


More carrot, less stick

If we weren't making these folk blood enemys by bombing the crap out of them, and putting criminals in charge of their lives, diplomacy and selective aid ( we will fund these school, but everyone get to go type of thing ) might have a shot at working.

Of course you would need to start small and go slow, major citys would be more receptive to this approach than in the country.

Another point, giving someone an education without opportunity is worse than pointless... it just produces more hopelessness. Unemployment is a huge concern ( mostly city folk again ) until Afghanistan has some sort of economy, you would only be producing University level basket weavers...

And to deal with their economy, the fighting must stop, and my opinion the fighting won't stop with the current regime in power

You have the best view of this Niki, you have been there and met these people... am I wrong?




Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 3:11 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


No, Gino, you're absolutely right...unfortunately.

The very first step is to rebuild...something we Yanks are famous for NOT doing after winning. Yeah, I know, we do some...sometimes...but not near enough to mitigate the harm we did "bombing them back to the stone age".

With rebuilding would come jobs, opportunities, etc...but see sigh emoticon above...it won't happen.

Yes, you're right about resistance, except the Afghans have always been warm toward the Americans (one reason I weep at how we're reversing that); they've always been open to our help. If they didn't feel like we were yet one more conqueror who had to be waited out, and we stopped bombing (see above) and didn't back Karzai without demanding reform, man, they'd jump on board. At least that's what I think from how it was then.

As to election: It would be nigh unto impossible to carry out a free, fair election. If you take into account the difficulties in travel (and time it takes), the Taliban being more effective nationwide than anyone else, and the Afghan culture of bakshish, you'd lose because of threats, corruption and bribery. If you could get an honest election, no, the Taliban would go down in flames. End of story. Maybe someday...
Quote:
If we weren't making these folk blood enemys by bombing the crap out of them, and putting criminals in charge of their lives, diplomacy and selective aid ( we will fund these school, but everyone get to go type of thing ) might have a shot at working.
No, it WOULD work! Even in the rural areas...like I said, they have always liked us, until we did start bombing the crap out of them. If we did even a bit of actual rebuilding, stopped bombing civilians, were able to clean up SOME corruption, we'd regain credibility and could build on...ach, I'm wasting time, it's not gonna happen...

But it's what we USED to do. I reiterated it in I think a couple of posts: when we were there, they took a grain siloh from us, a school from the Russians, an airport from us, a road from the Russians (which unfortunately only led to Russia...) and so forth. They'd love the help.

As to unemployment, you're right on the money:
Quote:
The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan has led many to believe that the country's young men are turning to the hard line Muslim group because of religious beliefs. Religious beliefs are playing a small role in the increased numbers of Taliban fighters, though. According to a press release from the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, many of the new recruits turn to the Talban as a last resort to escape unemployment and crushing poverty.

For many of Afghanistan's youth, the only way out of poverty is through the Taliban or in the poppy and opium trade in the country's southern region. "I couldn't find a job anywhere," he said. "So I had to join the Taliban. They give me money for my family expenditures. If I left the Taliban, what else could I do?" said 19 year old Jaan Agha. "I couldn't find a job anywhere, so I had to join the Taliban. They give me money for my family expenditures. If I left the Taleban, what else could I do?"

With insurgent attacks growing more frequent, more and more schools are closing. Without access to even the most basic education, Afghani youth are unable to compete for even low-paying jobs. For many, the Taliban provides the only opportunity to receive basic health care and money for food and clothing. Said twenty-two year old Mahmud from Lashkar Gah, "I fought for the Taleban for two years because I had no other job." Mahmud said he fought for the Taliban for two years, until he was able to save enough money to start his own business. "Now that I have work, I am not with the Taleban any more."
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/446162/unemployment_pushes_af
ghanistan_youth.html?cat=9

That was written in 2007, but from what I hear, it holds true today. Ah, I found a more recent one (tho' the previous one IS still valid, as this one shows:
Quote:
There is 40% - 50% unemployment in Afghanistan, and the Taliban pays $8 a day to young fighters who would rather be doing anything else. There is literal starvation taking place across the country, including in Kabul.

- 35% of Afghans are malnourished, according to the UN. Eight years after the occupation began, 1 out of 5 children still dies before the age of five, and two-thirds of the population still has no access to safe drinking water. Many children die of easily preventable or treatable disease. What is needed now is a "civilian assistance surge."

- The Taliban is politically unpopular, and most Afghans are repulsed by its ideology, which is an extreme Wahabist interpretation of Islam. Many people remember the cruel punishments and executions in the National Stadium. But it is growing in strength by taking advantage of vast numbers of unemployed men.

- In 2001 the vast majority of Afghans welcomed the overthrow of the Taliban, which was a small minority which ruled mostly by fear.

- The best way to defeat the Taliban, and to decrease the danger to our troops, is with a countrywide jobs program costing about $4 billion, less than what military operations cost for 2 months. The Independent Directorate for Local Governance (IDLG), a ministry of the Karzai government, reported that governors and district chiefs unanimously agreed that unemployment is the number one driver of the insurgency.

- Work projects which pay cash by the day or week are up and running successfully in Afghanistan. The problem is there are not nearly enough of them.

- Men gather in the squares in Kabul by the thousands hoping to be hired for day labor at $4 per day. They are of all ages, and ready and willing to work.
http://jobsforafghans.org/facts.html

That pretty much says it all.





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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 3:31 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
Kpo: Technically, the Taliban is a theocracy and an authoritarian state.

I wanted a single word for a far-right, authoritarian, bigoted movement, and plumped for 'fascism'. Though apparently reading this, it is an over-used word: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism

But I was most of all seeking to make a connection to the nazis (which 'fascist' apparently doesn't describe either...), who were able to gain control of a country and stamp it with their own ideology - something Gino says we shouldn't fight to prevent, but something I know happens to be a celebrated moment of left-wing fighting history...

Are you on the left Gino, or have you gone full circle and ended up on the right? Just interested. You reproduce articles here from right-wing isolationists.

Quote:
but I don't think it's been remotely peaceful or stable in the areas we've "secured"

I think it has been. My impression is that most of Afghanistan is quite peaceful, and most Afghans have seen their lives improve significantly since the fall of the taliban. These are quite modest claims when you think about it (not what we would expect nearly a decade after invasion), but benchmarks of some importance I would say. If I'm wrong then my argument becomes more desperate, but here it is:

If there's real hope of consolidating the Afghan peace/freedom/prosperity that we've achieved, and perhaps even extending it to the whole of the country - then that justifies a continued, expanded military presence (for a limited time).

Quote:
The thing of it is, if a free vote happened tomorrow, no picked candidates, no rigged outcomes... the Taliban would likely fair very well

If we pulled out, would the Taliban settle for this? And if they did badly would they settle for that - or go back to jihad?

Heads should roll

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 3:41 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Niki,

I think you are wrong about the general population not supporting the Taliban...

Three things have changed the mindsets since you were over there...

1. The Soviet invasion ingrained into everyone that outsiders are bad, outsiders bring the bullshit that everyone hates. The US and NATO haven't exactly changed that impression. Puppet governments installed by outsiders are worse, because they are collaborators.

2. In the chaos that followed the Soviet withdrawal, things were as bad there as anyway ( Somalia would compare ) local warlords routinely robbed, raped, and killed folk across the country. The Taliban were the ones to put an end to that chaos, they first stood up the the warlords, then routed them. Despite the heavy handed religious oppression, they brought order to chaos... and while things under the Taliban was oppressive, it was a damn sight better than what had preceded it.

3. A large majority of the people the US put into power, came from the Northern Alliance ( the raping, killing, drug peddling warlords the Taliban drove out ) these people also consist of former Soviet collaborators, Tajik warlords, etc

It was thought Karzai being of mixed Pashtun and Tajik blood would bring folk together, but as I unstand it the Pashtun hate him more than anyone.


I agree an free, open election would be improbable... but these guys running against the Taliban ?

The Taliban could very well win

If the more moderate Taliban had formed a coalition government with the other tribes back in 2002 ... things may have worked out


Now, why negotiate. Karzai will be gone soon enough after the US pulls out... half the Afghan army will change sides... they will win the whole thing... and sadly they will maintain their hostility, but if you beat a dog, and that dog bites you everytime you walk in the door... is it really the dogs fault ?




Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 3:48 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


KPO,

I am in the center, where I have pretty much always been...


"
The thing of it is, if a free vote happened tomorrow, no picked candidates, no rigged outcomes... the Taliban would likely fair very well


If we pulled out, would the Taliban settle for this? And if they did badly would they settle for that - or go back to jihad? "


The thing is no, because the US in particular has put them into the corner. I was making the point to Niki than the Taliban, ( like an insurgency ) enjoys more than average local support.. and for good reasons in this case ( see my other post )

More info

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Afghan+insurgents+enjoy+almost+unl
imited+support+NATO+officer/2518889/story.html



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 4:02 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Obviously you may be right, Gino, but I don't want to believe it. Yes, the Taliban were welcomed initially and yes, they provide employment and some social services.

Smiled at #1...Afghans have known outsiders were bad since before Ghengis Khan, and nothing's ever happened to change their minds. That's nothing new. But it's very different from accepting HELP from outsiders.

As to #2, as the article I cited points out: "The Taliban is politically unpopular, and most Afghans are repulsed by its ideology, which is an extreme Wahabist interpretation of Islam. Many people remember the cruel punishments and executions in the National Stadium."

That's what I hear from Afghan friends, as well.

On #3, I wasn't thinking of an election between the KARZAI government and the Taliban...I think that might be a toss-up, dunno. I was thinking of other candidates being available...tho' why bother, since a free, open election ain't gonna happen anyway...

In the end, yes, we'll probably end up negotiating with the Taliban, or leaving and they'll take over. History is long, Afghanistan has outlasted a lot of it, Afghans are patient...I can only hold out hope for some day in the future.



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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 4:05 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
I am in the center, where I have pretty much always been...

So you've never been a socialist, or anything like that? Okay, so why do you say you're in 'the center'?

Heads should roll

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 4:59 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
I am in the center, where I have pretty much always been...

So you've never been a socialist, or anything like that? Okay, so why do you say you're in 'the center'?

Heads should roll


Why is the discussion going this way ?

Are you out to label people like Wulf ?


I go left on some issues, right on others, generally think the folk out on the far left and far right are wingnuts and generally argue the issues from a position of common sense and what may practically work without worrying whether or not the solution fits my ideology,

Like in the case of Afghanistan, from what I have read your

" I think it has been. My impression is that most of Afghanistan is quite peaceful, and most Afghans have seen their lives improve significantly since the fall of the taliban. These are quite modest claims when you think about it (not what we would expect nearly a decade after invasion), but benchmarks of some importance I would say. If I'm wrong then my argument becomes more desperate, but here it is:

If there's real hope of consolidating the Afghan peace/freedom/prosperity that we've achieved, and perhaps even extending it to the whole of the country - then that justifies a continued, expanded military presence (for a limited time). "

is flawed from that the government we have installed ( making us responsible for it ) will not result in " peace/freedom/prosperity " nor will an expanded military presence promote that goal, particularly in the time frame the involved governments would allow.

Basically a window existed in 2002 and the opportunity was lost. Now, I doubt a happy outcome and only see limiting an expanding conflict.

You say there are sections of the country where the goals have been achieved, I have heard differently... I doubt the polling you presented last time, for the reasons I explained. Iraq is flaring up again over the banning of political candidates, how far that will go only time will tell... Yet the polling conducted last December said things were hunky dory ( same polling company too, lol )

Polls are really subjective, and people need to decide their own fates. As long as we are trying to force them into a direction we would like to see them go, the harder the backlash against. Result = Failure




Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 5:10 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
Obviously you may be right, Gino, but I don't want to believe it. Yes, the Taliban were welcomed initially and yes, they provide employment and some social services.

Smiled at #1...Afghans have known outsiders were bad since before Ghengis Khan, and nothing's ever happened to change their minds. That's nothing new. But it's very different from accepting HELP from outsiders.

As to #2, as the article I cited points out: "The Taliban is politically unpopular, and most Afghans are repulsed by its ideology, which is an extreme Wahabist interpretation of Islam. Many people remember the cruel punishments and executions in the National Stadium."

That's what I hear from Afghan friends, as well.

On #3, I wasn't thinking of an election between the KARZAI government and the Taliban...I think that might be a toss-up, dunno. I was thinking of other candidates being available...tho' why bother, since a free, open election ain't gonna happen anyway...

In the end, yes, we'll probably end up negotiating with the Taliban, or leaving and they'll take over. History is long, Afghanistan has outlasted a lot of it, Afghans are patient...I can only hold out hope for some day in the future.




The article also trys to imply the drug exports out of Afghanistan is an all Taliban problem...

From what I understand, people in the government control the operations that move a great deal of it, and others like PN say the US even assists in these ( I don't know about now, but it has happened how many times in the past ? )



The problem with other candidates, is also the problem the US seems to have... Third party folk just can't seem to find a base in this sort of system.

( not only that the pool of people with the education, the tribal credibility, who are not ex-pats, who aren't already in with one side or the other is pretty much non existant. Perhaps in twenty years, which is really my point... baby steps )




Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 8:53 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Quote:
Basically a window existed in 2002 and the opportunity was lost. Now, I doubt a happy outcome and only see limiting an expanding conflict.
Bing-O!!, big time. That's what has broken my heart for eight long years, as I watched Afghanistan sink lower and lower on the attention horizon. It about killed me when they blew up the Bamyan Buddha, it really did. I saw it on TV and burst into tears...it triggered a week-long depressive episode. Things like that, once destroyed, are gone forever, and it was something you just can't describe to anyone else, so full of living history. But I'm drifting off away from the subject...

No, the drug trade is BLAMED on the Taliban, as is everything else bad that can be blamed on them. It's become a necessity because of poverty and the country's agricultural areas having been devastated, and Karzai's government and the US are both deeply involved. As far as I know, the Taliban is very much against it, but I could be wrong. About Karzai and the US, I have no doubt whatsoever.

I should caveat anything I say with the fact that, besides the fact I was there so long ago, what I hear from individuals NOW is both second-hand, from those in Afghanistan they're in contact with, and they themselves being ex-pats living here. I'm sure that makes a difference.
Quote:
Third party folk just can't seem to find a base in this sort of system
True. But in as young a "democracy" as we've tried to instill in both Iraq and Afghanistan, I believe there WOULD be the possibility of several parties forming which gave options. The idea of a coalition government might be optimum, given the differences in culture between urban and rural, but again, probably one or two parties would emerge most powerful. It's a conundrum.

A coalition has another big problem. As I've said before, if anyone saw the scene in "Lawrence of Arabia" where they were trying to get different factions to be responsible for different aspects, i.e., water, electricity, infrastructure, it gives an absolutely perfect portrayal of the situation in Afghanistan when it comes to any kind of "coalition". In a land where individual populations have been used to independent control for so many hundreds of years, the idea of cooperation is tough to sell.

From what I've been told, your last sentence may not be true; there are differences enough, at least in rural areas, and there is actually a bit of a middle class emerging (a teeeny little one), so that if education were to expand, I think one might find that people were willing to express/back different ideas/groups. Individually, Afghans are pretty independent thinkers, if you take the Mullahs' control out of the equation. It's possible...but not feasible for some decades, I agree.

There's actually another aspect to all this, too, which I don't hear discussed. North and South Afghanistan are almost two different countries; the Mullahs' control of the South has always been enormously stronger, while the North has always been more cosmopolitan and open to change. I'm not sure how this affects the situation or the future, but it's definitely true and hasn't changed that much since we were there. The people I know here all came from the North, mostly Kabul itself, so there a skewing in their opinions/attitudes to take into account, too--also that they are almost all of urban descent, as are those they're in contact with.



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Thursday, February 4, 2010 10:47 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Niki2 said " There's actually another aspect to all this, too, which I don't hear discussed. North and South Afghanistan are almost two different countries; the Mullahs' control of the South has always been enormously stronger, while the North has always been more cosmopolitan and open to change. I'm not sure how this affects the situation or the future, but it's definitely true and hasn't changed that much since we were there. The people I know here all came from the North, mostly Kabul itself, so there a skewing in their opinions/attitudes to take into account, too--also that they are almost all of urban descent, as are those they're in contact with. "

This is quite true as I understand it, and is also part of what I meant when I separated urban and rural Afghanistan in my post.

The south demographically, is Pashtun, mostly agriculture based economy, the majority of the fighters against the Soviet invasion came from this group, and as I read they have family / tribal ties to the folk in Northern Pakistan ( many who were Afghan refugees from the Soviet invasion ) and are quite angry about the drone attacks, etc.

The north is more mixed with Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen and others. The later do not have great relations with the former.


The Bamyan Buddhas was a sad affair, with errors on both sides

In the late 90's Mohammed Omar was quoted as saying " The government considers the Bamyan statues as an example of a potential major source of income for Afghanistan from international visitors. "

unfortunately this degenerated after UNESCO tried to send contractors to do preservation work, and they were asked why there was so much money available to fix these statues and none to feed starving children in the same area.

The traditional quiet bribe likely would have made the entire affair go away, but instead an issue was made out of it leaving the Taliban only one way to save face with their own people.

Anyone involved in Diplomacy should be made to read Sun Tzu .... you can't back people into a corner and expect a positive result

I don't mean to absolve the Taliban here either, but to point out there is blame enough for both sides.





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 12:18 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Sigh...now you've got me going. The Buddhas' destruction is...well, I guess I'm going to have to put up a post....the Taliban destroyed them because they thought they were worshipped, but the fact is they had long become a tourist attraction only. "Mutherfuckers" is too mild--I don't think we have an English term that fits.

Yes, you're right on virtually every count, thanx.



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Thursday, February 4, 2010 4:21 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
Why is the discussion going this way ?

I'm just interested. We all have our stories, how we came to take a passionate interest in political issues, and settle in certain political camps. I like to understand, as much as I can, people's driving factors in this.

Quote:
As long as we are trying to force them into a direction we would like to see them go, the harder the backlash against.

Here's my view on this, and the approach I would take if I were in charge of things: I want to impose basic democracy on Afghanistan. I want the Afghan people to vote as cleanly as possible for whoever they want to take power. I want to resist those who want to take power undemocratically (by force) - and do this until the Afghan state has a fighting chance itself of resisting these elements. If the taliban really represent the afghan people they can win a free and fair election. Then we can leave the country to their control - for as long as they aren't harbouring terrorists... in which case we lob cruise missiles at them.

Does that sound fair?

Heads should roll

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 4:34 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
Why is the discussion going this way ?

I'm just interested. We all have our stories, how we came to take a passionate interest in political issues, and settle in certain political camps. I like to understand, as much as I can, people's driving factors in this.

Quote:
As long as we are trying to force them into a direction we would like to see them go, the harder the backlash against.

Here's my view on this, and the approach I would take if I were in charge of things: I want to impose basic democracy on Afghanistan. I want the Afghan people to vote as cleanly as possible for whoever they want to take power. I want to resist those who want to take power undemocratically (by force) - and do this until the Afghan state has a fighting chance itself of resisting these elements. If the taliban really represent the afghan people they can win a free and fair election. Then we can leave the country to their control - for as long as they aren't harbouring terrorists... in which case we lob cruise missiles at them.

Does that sound fair?

Heads should roll


It's the getting to that goal, and what has been policy up to this point has been counter productive to that goal.

As for harboring terrorists, the US was invited to produce evidence in a court of a third party by the taliban, instead the US invaded...

I would have taken time off work if they televised that extrication hearing... I am sure the ICC would have bent over backwards to host
it...

I don't think you can impose democracy, but you can give people a choice, if they wanted to put in a new shah, or go back to the semi communist system they had pre soviet invasion... what ever as long as they do it themselves, likely back to a loose confederation of tribes without a big central government, not everybody wants those.

BTW

" I want to resist those who want to take power undemocratically (by force) "

you are likely bucking to be one of the "terrorists" with that statement... not that I mind.. I agree with it





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 5:01 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
I think I want YOU to be my loan officer next time I head to the bank. After all, I'm only borrowing a few millionths of a trillion; what could go wrong?



*shrug* You're already 10 trillion overdrawn...

Heads should roll

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 5:15 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:
I don't think you can impose democracy, but you can give people a choice

How without an election? A referendum?

What if the people choose democracy? And the democratically elected government asks for military help to preserve that democracy? Then do you support an international effort?

Heads should roll

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 5:58 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:
I don't think you can impose democracy, but you can give people a choice

How without an election? A referendum?

What if the people choose democracy? And the democratically elected government asks for military help to preserve that democracy? Then do you support an international effort?

Heads should roll


What I would have done back in 2002, would have involved starting at the village level.

Go in, introduce yourself, offer some help, show an interest... then leave

I also would not have put all the taliban on a hit list and tried to round them up as criminals.

Once things calmed a bit, maybe one province at a time as the situation developed I would have asked them to call a meeting and discuss dividing the province into ridings and having some representation from those areas. Once that happened then those guys pick the leader of that province.

Once you have reps from all the provinces ( picked by Afghans ) they meet and decide how to procced.

Bringing in guys who left the country years before and have no real base of support, and/or throwing to the warlords as we have done just will not work.

Once you have that council set up, they can come up with a constitution, appoint a king whatever. And as we didn't vilify the taliban in this plan, they can participate... no one is ignored, disenfranchised, or have cause to take up arms... unlike the way it did go down. Grassroots instead of Kingmaking... even MacArthur knew that in Japan when he was running the show there.

How to get out of the mess the US built ?

I have previously suggested the mass arrest of most of the Afghan government for drug/warcrimes charges and starting over, but even that would be difficult. I don't know if anything would work now, as Niki and I pointed out, with these people, you only get one chance to make an impression... and for the most part ours is bad.



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Friday, February 5, 2010 7:35 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


KPO, I love your ideas, but I think they are kind of optimistic, considering Afghan culture and people and history.

Gino, I think you have THE IDEA of what should have been done. It’s not perfect (see remarks about scene from “Lawrence of Arabia”), but it MIGHT have worked. National elections just aren’t logical at this time. . . maybe in a few decades, but again, you just can’t bring a culture from the time of Jesus into the 21st century by almost any means.

But I don’t think I said you only get one chance, and if so I misspoke, because I don’t believe it. Afghans are a pretty forgiving people, individually, and if they say anyone as NOT being a conqueror but wanting to help (as we and other foreigners were back in the ‘60s), they’re quite open. Especially IF we went against the American grain and took the time to learn about their culture, language, etc. I know, --we have yet to learn that one. But I believe it would WORK.

Why the hell didn't they listen to you? Well, I'll bet other reasonable people suggested it; as usual, the military does what IT wants: "The American Way". And of course there was Dumbya, and Cheney, and Rove, and...




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Friday, February 5, 2010 8:35 AM

FREMDFIRMA


I was thinkin about this, and the chadris, and me experimenting on local muslims to see what their knee-jerk reactions were to some things..

And yanno, here's a damned evil idea.

I already been workin on how to grind their nerves about that whole burqa issue, but how I got to doin that make me think, why not up the game ?

Bring back the Hashishin, or make em THINK someone has, use that blind spot to *really* clip a few of em, preferably ones everyone else hates to minimize the backlash so while publicly spouting outrage, the other tribal leaders will privately be laughing good riddance up their sleeve and not DO much of anything about it...

Till a couple more get turfed, and they start to get concerned, at which point, given that in addition to being religious, they're also superstitious types and have a penchant for legends and tales, the rumor mill is gonna blow it out of proportion and it's *really* gonna work their nerves.

Lemme clarify this, ok ?
Look at a Chadri style Burqa.
Now look at a Ninja.

I want *THAT* connection to start happening in their pointy little friggin heads, cause once it does, it's gonna stick, good and proper.

And then what ?
They can't kill off all the women, obviously, so it's either lose the burqa (which really wouldn't improve their safety a whole lot in fact, but it's matter of perception, see ?) or live in fear for the rest of their lives - on top of which, the next time they get to thinkin about mistreating a female, they're gonna have another element to wrestle with, as in "might this result in someone ramming a Kris up my ass over it", and fundamentalist or not, they're human under all that bullshit, it's GOING to have an effect.

Hell, they can't even search em, not without offending all their relatives, so EVERY time they see a group of women in burqas, they're gonna have to think "does one of them have a Kris meant for me?" - "have I pissed anyone off that bad lately ?"

And yeah, it's maybe not the best or most moral way to do it, but you work with what you got, Fear is a form of Power, and Power leads to Respect, regardless of rationalizations, excuses, or morality, and frankly the escalating risk of catching some steel through your body cavity is a pretty damned good deterrent to mistreating the folk likely to do so, is it not ?

And yeah, this isn't fully refined yet, and imma borrow a few ideas from the Bene Gesserit, and their own culture and religion to improve impact, but I do believe the fundamentalists are ripe for this kind of pyschological exploitation and manipulation, and I've little doubt I can find a few radicals willing to risk their necks for this.

Just mentally chewing on it for the moment, but the concept seems pretty solid.

-F

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Friday, February 5, 2010 9:34 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Hee, hee, hee; I love it. While the association with ninja doesn’t quite work for me, and the idea of a hashashin in chadri is very strange, there are some components I like. Just to play with the idea:

First, for those who don’t know, the Hashashin (I’m more used to it spelled “Hashasheen) were a sect of assassins (and yes, that word derived from them) around the time of Marco Polo. The most acceptable etymology of the word assassin is the simple one: it comes from Hassan (Hassan ibn al-Sabbah) and his followers. The noise around the hashish version was invented in 1809 by a Frenchman, and has stuck with them ever since. There is NO factual evidence that they smoked hashish, despite that persistent myth.

I won’t go into their history, suffice it to say they were a generational secretive underground movement against the Abbasid Caliphate (third of the Islamic Caliphates--heads of state--of the Islamic Empire). They based their ideas on Ancient Greek philosophy, mysticism, and seeking an end to perceived corruption and greed. Determined to build a new utopia, they formulated a strategy of gaining control of strategically important fortresses by covertly converting local inhabitants.

They trained highly capable sleeper commandos (trained in languages, science, trade, and so on) known as Fedayeen (anyone remember "Dune"?), who would covertly infiltrate enemy positions and remain undercover. If civilians were facing pogroms or their forts faced imminent attack, the Fedayeen were activated to prevent an attack.

One of their tactics was intimidation; Fedayeen used their well-known skills for political goals without necessarily killing; for example, a victim, usually high-placed, might one morning find a Hashshashin dagger lying on his pillow upon awakening. This was a plain hint to the targeted individual that he was not safe anywhere, that maybe even his inner group of servants had been infiltrated by the assassins, and that whatever course of action had brought him into conflict with the Hashshashins would have to be stopped if he wanted to live.

What about combining symbols of the hashashin with that of the chadri, like a new movement of Fedayeen had been born?
Quote:
They were meticulous in killing the targeted individual, seeking to do so without any additional casualties and loss of innocent life, although they were careful to cultivate their terrifying reputation by slaying their victims in public. Typically, they approached using a disguise, or were already sleeper agents in an entourage.
That would be a great tactic, if combined with the chadri as the “disguise”, and somehow creating a symbol that combined the chadri with some hashasheen symbol.

The sect's own claims tell of an unsourced account in which one of them sneaked into Saladin's tent in the heart of his camp during his reconquest of Outremer in 1176, and left a poisoned cake and a note on Saladin's chest as he slept saying "You are in our grip" and then sneaked back out of the camp unharmed. Another account tells of a letter sent to Saladin's maternal uncle, vowing death to the entire royal line; perhaps no idle threat. Whatever the truth of these accounts, Saladin's uncle clearly heeded their warning, and desisted.

You can see how these tactics could be put to good use in intimidation. It’s a satisfying concept.

However, Frem, it’s just a dream, as far as I’m concerned. Engaging in such actions goes against the beliefs I espoused in another thread and here, in that it doesn’t respect what the people themselves want, or that they have asked for help. If one could get a bunch of Afghans themselves....well, in general it’s just a nice thing to imagine, for me.



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Friday, February 5, 2010 10:25 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
However, Frem, it’s just a dream, as far as I’m concerned. Engaging in such actions goes against the beliefs I espoused in another thread and here, in that it doesn’t respect what the people themselves want, or that they have asked for help. If one could get a bunch of Afghans themselves....well, in general it’s just a nice thing to imagine, for me.

Well, it doesn't go against mine, and when I said I was pretty sure I could find a couple radicals to go along with it*, I wasn't talkin about american ones.

As you say, it'd be disrespectful, not to mention pointless, for anyone BUT members of the afghan people to engage in this, not to mention just how logistically untenable it would be to try infiltration with idiot americans who you'd have to transport all the way there, most of whom have no clue of the society and culture enough to blend in for even five freakin minutes...

I'm feeding some of THEM these ideas, you see, we've already been using the feyadeen methodology to get those pictures, audio and video tapes, but there's a certain naivety going on - they think that if they just get word of their plight "out there", far enough, wide enough, to the right people, things might change, and can be as stubborn as any tribal elder about facing unpleasant realities, a lot of em.

The world KNOWS already, they just don't give a shit, and the fundamentalist bastards committing these abuses most certainly don't - and so, we MAKE them, I'm all for offering the carrot, had I one to offer, but in this case all I got is stick, and a damned big one if it can be brought to bear by exploitation of their pysche, religion and culture.

Ponder how much more impact that dagger on the pillow would carry if it's laying on a calligraphy of what principle of the quaran that they have violated - cause you know that book has some strong words about treating folk that way, as conveniently and often ignored as "love thy neighbor" is amongst so-called christians.

Still, even an expert, even a scholar, is still an outsider - in order to fully exploit cultural, psychological and religious weaknesses you need people FROM that culture, who have rejected it, heretic types who are and have always been (provided they survive, and sometimes even when they don't) the primary motivators of any social change, often simply by questioning it, loudly and often, which frankly isn't gonna work here.

And yes, I suppose it's immoral, but less so in my eyes that letting this horror continue unabated, and truthfully this whole concept is more of a feint to take the pressure off the folks who are going to make the REAL changes by teaching future generations tolerance, cause education is the real answer - but they need time and room to do it without being slaughtered, and so I figure to give the bastards who might do that something *else* to worry about till that next generation can get their hooks in and start sweeping these fundamentalist asshats into the dustbin of history where they friggin belong.

So the idea here is to shake their confidence, keep em jumping at shadows and socially/culturally discredit them, while buying time for REAL reform to steamroller them from the side.

Provided the good ole US of A doesn't label the reformists "terrorists" as a sop to their fundamentalist puppets and blow RAWA off the map in the meantime, yet another reason to give em something else to worry about and split their attention.

Tactically, this is a lot like a hit-n-run ambush to lure off a convoys defenses before your main force steamrollers it, just on a cultural level - and yes, that usually means a hard way of things for the ambush party, but the folks getting involved in this are bloody well aware of it, and given just how little a life so miserable to them is worth, risking it in hopes of actually *accomplishing* something is almost a no-brainer for most of the folk I hope to reach, who got a hell of a lot more guts than people realize, since they've *already* questioned and rejected all they'd been brought up to believe.

-Frem

*PS - Said radicals being the ones who suggested bumping them off in the first place - or rather suggested picking off smaller villages and slaughtering all the men over the age of ten, something which horrified even me given how matter of fact they were about it.

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Saturday, February 6, 2010 7:19 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Agreed...and yes, wouldn't I love to see it? Especially with the Qur'an verses--that's a stroke of pure genius!

I guess if you could find people willing, and who were willing to give their lives if caught, that'd be fair in my eyes, except for the killing part, which I can't condone...but the scaring shitless, HELL YEAH! Go for it!



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Saturday, February 6, 2010 9:53 AM

FREMDFIRMA



Well, thing about it, Niki - and most folk don't really understand this, is that the historically accepted "traditional" form of problem solving in afghanistan is pretty bloody.

Want/need some land - slaughter everyone on it.

Social change/reform - slaughter everyone who disagrees with you.

Religious differences - see above.

Been insulted - wipe out the family/tribe.

By comparision they're pretty damned merciful to foreign "invaders" who are a lot more likely to be repatriated than shot on the spot, as opposed to members of a tribal dispute gone ugly.

The feyadeen were actually an innovation on matters in the hopes of getting things done WITHOUT the massive casualties of the usual forms of handling a disagreement, and the philsophy involved was actually quite similar in concept to what the ninjas really were - assassination was in fact the least part of it, the regrettable final option when all others had been exhausted, but even so better one death, or a handful, than the piles of corpses which is the end result of a clash of armies, mostly composed of folks who had no stake in it and would not be any better off win or lose.

But more often it was a matter of social and political influence, deterrent force, and the capability to turn a warlord or generals own troops against the idea of whatever their plan was, and basically spike the willingness of others to take the orders of someone bent on destruction, something seen elsewhere on occasion with the practice of "Commander Shaming" - leaving the CO bound and naked, but alive and unharmed to shame and discredit them, which is kinda what happened to Lu Bu, as a historical case.

Still, not gonna lie to you - I know they ain't gonna take it serious until someone turfs a couple of these asshats, and given half a chance I'd turf a couple myself just on principle, but it's a waste to do that unless you can get maximum impact out of it, which is why I am workin this concept over.

And yeah, there's no problem getting willing afghans in on this, problem at the moment is that they're TOO willing to just go around cuttin throats and not lookin at the larger picture, so we're still working it out.

I finally laid it out to the imam once I let it work his nerves like that, and explained to him where this was going, which completely freaked him out, bad enough I make him question his own blindness, but now to consider just how great a weakness it is - he's got a lot more to think about, and is properly questioning his own enlightenment, as he should be, I dunno what he makes of it yet, but if the concept itself makes someone from that culture more or less on my "side" weak in the knees with fear, then I hope to hell even the hint of it going on will leave them fundie bastards gabbling in terror.

Let THEM know the fear they have inflicted on others.

Still workin it out though, cause I need a lot of religious and cultural input in order to work out the logistics with the folks who will be putting their lives at risk over it, we very much need to get this right the first time around cause we won't get no second shot at it, not without the impact we'll need to be effective with so few resources.

-F

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Sunday, February 7, 2010 6:40 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Frem, ! I'm with you at least 75% in mind and heart (just can't condone killing, you understand), and yes, I know life is cheap in Afghan terms...actually I thought more people thought they WERE bloodthirsty than otherwise. You know, general ignorance and what they hear...

Yeah, as I said above, their efforts were more at intimidation and fear than actual violence, but as you said, there has to be a little violence to instill the fear in the first place.

I wish you luck; it would be literally a miracle if anyone could have any effect--any REAL effect--on what's happening. I'm assuming you're talking about targeting the Taliban (and Karzai's corrupt government figures?). That will be a toughie, but the re-implementation of the chadri would sure make it tons easier!

I wonder what some judiciously painted excerpts from the Qur'an would so? Kinda like V did--damn, wish those two didn't have similar names, I always have to qualify it: V for Vendetta I mean. If the people were educated on exactly what the Qur'an SAYS and MEANS, rather than the propaganda the Taliban spouts....y'know? If it were like drilled into their heads by seeing it, to counter HEARING the other version from the fucking Mullahs.

Well, at least it's something to wrap my dreams around. I still have dreams where I'm there--one really vivid one was trying to run/hide from the Mullahs, and mom with me, old and frail, and I couldn't keep her quiet (tho' that would have been hard even if she'd been the age she was when we were there!). Never forgot that one.

DOES anyone remember Dune and the Feydaeen? He took so many bits and pieces from everywhere, it was always a shock to me when I ran across one of them...like jihad; I didn't know what it was as used exactly in Dune, until they declared it. Magnificent writer, that man! Too bad they totally screwed up the movie.

Onward... you go fellah, but be very, very sure you teach any Afghans involved the TRUE Qur'an, so they don't get corrupted or have second thoughts or something and talk.

If anyone I've ever met could pull off something like that, you're the one.

Fun to think about, thank you for that.



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Sunday, February 7, 2010 9:23 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Karzai may institute conscription

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/02/07/afghan-army-conscription.html

Afghan President Hamid Karzai said Sunday he is considering instituting conscription to build an army large enough to provide security without international help.

Karzai told a conference of the world's top defence officials in Munich that he wants to build and train an army and police force of 300,000 by 2012 that will be able to provide security for Afghanistan by 2015 without foreign help.

Within five years, "Afghanistan should be able to provide security for its people so we are no longer a burden on the shoulders of the international community," Karzai said.

Last week, however, Afghanistan's defence minister told reporters the army had no shortage of recruits and that there was no need to force people to serve.

Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak said the government could not implement conscription "in the current Afghan situation" but left open whether it could be instituted in the future.
Plans to boost army, police numbers

Last month, Afghanistan's international partners agreed to expand the Afghan National Army from the current figure of about 97,000 to 171,600 by the end of next year. The Afghan National Police will be boosted from about 94,000 today to 134,000.

The Afghans had been lobbying for expanding the security force to 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police within five years but the lower numbers were set for the time being because of the expense, lack of training camps and problems training and equipping such a large force.

Sen. Carl Levin, chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, complained last month that NATO had sent only 37 per cent of the trainers it needed to teach initial eight-week courses for Afghan recruits.

During the conference, Karzai indicated that international troops would still be needed beyond his five-year target, saying that the "war on terrorism ... is an issue separate from this security arrangement in Afghanistan."

He suggested that Afghanistan's volunteer system may not be able to provide the manpower necessary to meet his goals, and that an army of citizen soldiers could have other advantages.

"For the past many years I've been visited by Afghan community leaders who are advising me to go back to some form of conscription for the Afghan army so the young boys of the Afghanistan countryside can ... come to training centres, get acquainted with the rest of the country, get familiarized with other young men around the country and learn something and go back home," he said.

"This will be philosophically one of our pursuits as we move ahead into the future in consultation with the Afghan people."

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/02/07/afghan-army-conscription.html
#ixzz0esbSiPI0



How do you think this will play out Niki ?





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Sunday, February 7, 2010 10:20 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Damn, you beat me to it! Was gonna put it up, but it took so long to get the one on the whalers up (crashed computer, redo twice...

Good question. It's never happened before there. If the pay is decent, some won't mind--hell, they're doing it for free right now (against US anyway!).

Seems to me it would be an awful hardship for rural folk, tho', as money doesn't replace someone there to do the work...and I gotta smile at the notion of them getting ahold of everyone--how you gonna register 'em, how you gonna get 'em if they don't wanna be found? All kinds of interesting logistics.

If it WORKS, would be nice, anyway, to have their own fighting force...if they can be trained and not desert for more money...



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Sunday, February 7, 2010 10:49 AM

FREMDFIRMA


Problem with that is about the usual, the equipment is shit, the food worse, and the paychecks bounce.

The latter is a primary reason for desertion, cause you give a man a gun and ammunition, and then DO NOT PAY HIM, he's gonna find other ways to get the money, and whatever you think of their morals, the Northern Alliance Warlords pay on time.

Besides which, the whole "so you wanna be cannon fodder for this jerks ambitions ?" thing gives folk like me just one more psychological crowbar to apply, since the idea of being conscripted cannon fodder to enrich a corrupt puppet regime doesn't sit no better with them than it does anyone else.

Of course, the primary flaw in the idea is that Kharazi controls even one foot of that country outside the range of american guns, and he don't, he wants to, which is why he wants the troops, you see...

To massacre those who don't agree with him, in the traditional fashion, and I got some ideas about *who* he plans to start with, and THAT folks, means imma be gone for a little bit here, cause something has to be done about that, immediately.

@$^%@#!&^$%#$ !!

-F

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Sunday, February 7, 2010 12:06 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
Damn, you beat me to it! Was gonna put it up, but it took so long to get the one on the whalers up (crashed computer, redo twice...

Good question. It's never happened before there. If the pay is decent, some won't mind--hell, they're doing it for free right now (against US anyway!).

Seems to me it would be an awful hardship for rural folk, tho', as money doesn't replace someone there to do the work...and I gotta smile at the notion of them getting ahold of everyone--how you gonna register 'em, how you gonna get 'em if they don't wanna be found? All kinds of interesting logistics.

If it WORKS, would be nice, anyway, to have their own fighting force...if they can be trained and not desert for more money...




I think it will backfire in a big way...

The confidence the Afghan people seem to have in this government isn't exactly positive ( more negative and going further that way )

Think how you would react if you were taken from your home against your will, given a weapon and told you are going to fight for a cause you were not on board with, and quite possibly you are outright against...

The Fort Hood shooter, and the guy who fragged those officers in Kuwait were volunteers who were sent out in a cause they objected to...

The interpreter who shot a couple of Americans recently obviously had his objections too...

I remember as a kid, watching Sadat killed by his own troops used to do things they disagreed with...


We keep putting the psychology here into American terms... money isn't everything, to some it means a hell of alot less than pride.


I am starting to think the epic failure might be the best outcome, the only road to freedom for Afghanistan ( and elsewhere ) is to drive the Americans out in disgrace, boot Karzai's severed head in the dust, and start over. At least they will decide their future and not some Washington puke.. Maybe with the US unemployment problems you should start up your draft again, might invest some folk into doing something about your foreign policy, obviously the money your spending isn't enough of a deterrent.





Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Monday, February 8, 2010 11:36 AM

LITTLEBIRD


Quote:
Originally posted by Fremdfirma

Provided the good ole US of A doesn't label the reformists "terrorists" as a sop to their fundamentalist puppets and blow RAWA off the map in the meantime, yet another reason to give em something else to worry about and split their attention.



If something like this were to take place, what do you think would happen to their orphanages? My husband and I have been helping to support a young woman over there for the past few years and since the US troop surge, my worry level for her and the other children has increased a great deal. She's 15 now and want's to become a doctor and go back to her village to help the women and children there. I hope she gets a chance to have a life and fulfill her dream.

Personally, I wish we would just leave Afghanistan, but I'm sure that would be to much to hope for considering the arrogance of the US government. It truly sickens me.

So, what are some of the idea's you were thinking of taking from the Bene Gessserit for your plan?

And thank you all for this very informative thread!

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Monday, February 8, 2010 1:19 PM

FREMDFIRMA



The avoidance of direct power, and obfuscation of the true cause or source of an event or action combined with a little helpful myth-making and spreading - some of the methodology there is quite useful within the culture itself.

I had a lucid vision on awakening this morning imma need to sort out, prolly cause I was dreaming about this stuff last night, but I saw a sea of solar panels and windmills in the desert, leading to a desalinization plant with a voice crying "Allah gives us the power!" in the background, and an irrigation system feeding reclaimed ground and I gotta mentally chew on that one a while yet...

Desert and sun, they got, wind, they got, plenty and to spare, and if a religious facet could be invoked, if a jihad could be called to the purpose.......

Gotta think on that a while.

-F

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010 5:47 AM

FREMDFIRMA



Well, looks like a few folks have been at it, on a bits and pieces level that so far hasn't made much inroads.
http://afghanmagazine.com/?p=129
http://afghanistan.usaid.gov/en/Article.893.aspx
Quote:
The 25 solar panels cost $10,700

I gotta ask where they're buying this crap, cause I could go down to Harbor Freight right NOW and get 25 solar panel kits which produce 5 watts MORE for a mere $6,250.00 USD
http://www.harborfreight.com/cpi/ctaf/displayitem.taf?Itemnumber=90599

Looks like the germans have a leg up, but it's still a drop in the bucket.
http://www.afghan-solar.org/index.html
(can't read the german, but looks a little wider than our pathetic efforts)

Still workin at this one, among other stuff, along with the philosophy "Sell the black goop to the fools, the wind and sun will power our villages, Allah will provide for us, so long as the sun shines, so long as the wind blows, long after the black sludge has been all used up!", cause so far the folk I have been talkin to are liking the heck outta that concept.

-F

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010 6:33 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


“The confidence the Afghan people seem to have in this government isn't exactly positive” – thanx for the understatement of the month, Gino!

As for everything else you wrote, . That’s kinda what I meant...everyone would know when their number came up, probably when they were coming to get them (how many would voluntarily go??), and have plenty of time to disappear. OR take the guns and clothes, THEN disappear, or something. Doesn’t seem feasible in that culture. Guess we might have to just wait and see. If Karzai does it, I think he’s a fool. But then...

Frem, I had to giggle—what you described is EXACTLY the Bene Gesserit “way”. They WERE a major key social, religious, and political force; how apt. Too bad nobody knows how to use The Voice.

Exactly as you proposed, “They used the kind of indirect methodologies you mentioned to further their goals, rather than wield overt power themselves. They noted the Taoist principle that whatever rises must fall; and so rather than taking direct control of the human race, instead manipulate the social and political order with subtlety and insinuation, often using extraordinarily long-term stratagems spanning generations. They avoides becoming or seeming too rich or too powerful or indeed revealing the extent of their powers, so as to avoid being seen as overtly responsible for the rise and fall of governments and empires.”

Oooo, what fun! Yes, it's of course a desert much ike Dune (minus the sandworms), so many of the same techniques would apply--Too bad nobody’s got sandworms, like the graboids from “Tremors” to add to the mix! Although apparently some scientists think we had something like them eons ago: http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/health/giant-sand-worms-roamed-eng
land-260-million-years-ago_100167028.html Nothing like the size of the sandworms...

Just having fun. But what the hell, as someone posted about something else, this IS a science fiction site, after all.

I don’t know about your other idea, Frem...I love it, of course, but how feasible in a culture such as that, I dunno. I’m sure things have changed since our time, but from what I read, not that much. Dad was sent over there because their idea of “maintenance” on the old DC-3s Pan Am gave them was to fly them until they fell down in the desert, then walk away. Seriously! The Afghans they brought here to train as engineers wouldn’t go back home, which is why they sent engineers like my dad over there to work with them. I’ve heard things since then about our military putting them to work, and some of them make me smile—not because I like them, but because it sounds like some of the same mentality.

It would sure be fantastic, tho’, sigh...



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Tuesday, February 9, 2010 6:39 PM

GINOBIFFARONI


http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2010/02/20102914010294748.html



CENTRAL/S. ASIA
Afghanistan in need of policewomen

Afghanistan's police force is having a hard time trying to recruit women, which has been a major stumbling block in the government's plans to step up security efforts against the Taliban.

Many Taliban fighters - dressed as women in a burqa - have infiltrated city check points with weapons and explosives hidden underneath their dress.

In Afghan culture, only women are allowed to search beneath the veils of other women, which is becoming a growing security problem.

Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr reports from Kandahar.



Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:38 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Ooops; turns out you're not the first to think of it, Frem. I'm glad they caught on to the tactic, it's so obvious I'm surprised nobody thought of it earlier.

However, I'm not surprised they're having a hard time recruiting women. Would be terrifying to be a woman and come up against the Taliban...death would be the unquestionable result, and while all ways of dying are horrible, stoning is a pretty drawn-out, painful way to go!



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Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:47 AM

GINOBIFFARONI


Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
Ooops; turns out you're not the first to think of it, Frem. I'm glad they caught on to the tactic, it's so obvious I'm surprised nobody thought of it earlier.

However, I'm not surprised they're having a hard time recruiting women. Would be terrifying to be a woman and come up against the Taliban...death would be the unquestionable result, and while all ways of dying are horrible, stoning is a pretty drawn-out, painful way to go!




I guess they should just waterboard them until they induce a heart attack

Because that is so more humane








Either you Are with the terrorists, or ... you Are with the terrorists

Life is like a jar of Jalapeño peppers.
What you do today, might Burn Your Ass Tomorrow"

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