REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Economy falls to 'Fat Finger' Error or jitters ahead of banking bill

POSTED BY: DREAMTROVE
UPDATED: Thursday, May 13, 2010 01:41
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Thursday, May 6, 2010 11:46 AM

DREAMTROVE


The stock market crashed intraday and then recovered. Take a look at Apple, (AAPL), Proctor and Gable (PG) and Accenture (ACN), among others. Preliminary reports say an error in an order placed by Citigroup is responsible. Myself and other traders are very dubious.

http://www.businessinsider.com/cnbc-a-citigroup-trader-made-the-big-fa
t-finger-error-2010-5



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Thursday, May 6, 2010 3:03 PM

DREAMTROVE


Just reading more about this: Possibly HFTs were involved. People who aren't reading this stuff should be

http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/high-fre
quency-trading-hft-wall-streets-latest-scam-18-08.html



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Thursday, May 6, 2010 4:02 PM

DREAMTROVE


Bump.

Quote:


High Frequency Trading (HFT): Wall Street's Latest Scam


High Frequency Trading (HFT)
Goldman Sachs and friends are hanging us out to dry with HFT




"It appears exchanges are conspiring with a privileged group of high-frequency traders in a massive fraud," Fund Manager Whitney Tilson.

Wall St, New York, USA, 17 August 2009. The new cream-skimming trick in Wall Street's playbook is called High Frequency Trading, or HFT.


It works like this: big trading banks invest in super-computers that can process information at every faster speeds, splitting nano-seconds into smaller and smaller units. These super-computers can process instructions faster than regular computers, and much faster than humans. Next, they place these super-computers in the exchanges themselves. This gives direct access to the exchange, cutting out the latency of connections from remote locations. By trading faster than smaller investors, profits can be constantly churned.
Institutional investors will often divide large purchases up into many small blocks that will be bought or sold within specified price ranges. HFT players seek to determine the price range by sending out quotes that are issued and almost immediately cancelled. They can execute thousands of such trades in a second. If they hit on a price in the acceptable price range, they can fulfil the order and then sell it on to the investor microseconds later for a tiny profit. Do this long enough and you can rack up impressive profits.

This is not an obscure phenomenon. Estimates say that 50 per cent to 70 per cent of traded volume on the NYSE is carried out by High Frequency Traders, or HFTs. That's right; high-speed gouging of retail investors and large institutions now makes up the bulk of trading. It has directly led to Goldman Sachs pulling in record profits, and recording 46 '$100 million' trading days, when the economy is dead and corporate M&A activity is at record lows. If you wondered how they pulled that one off, here's how. It has become the very heart of investment banking, which explains the vigour with which Goldman's pursued a former employee who tried to create a new business using HFT computing code that he had developed. He has been arrested for theft. We would argue that Goldman Sachs is guilty of much worse crimes. True it is legal, but Democratic Senator Charles Schumer and the London Stock Exchange are looking to change the rules to stop at least some HFT practices.

High Frequency Traders, or HFTs, come in a number of guises. Academic research published in the paper

"Toxic equity trading order flow on Wall Street" lists the following types of plays, which it says are more responsible for market volatility than the financial crisis:

Liquidity rebate traders - Exchanges (at least some of them) offer rebates of about 0.25 cents per share to large brokers who bring in liquidity. They can re-offer shares at exactly the same price and still make a profit. Of course if they can offer the shares at a marginally higher price they will make more profit, as will the exchanges. Tilson said the exchanges are complicit because of these rebates, and the additional access they offer.

Predatory algorithmic traders - By placing small buy orders that are withdrawn, they fool institutional traders by bidding up the price of the stock, which is bought at higher prices as the series of small orders are executed to fulfil the big transaction. Later in the process the "predatory algo" shorts the stock at the higher price it has reached. The institutions then cover the short at the higher price.

Automated market makers - This HFT play involves"pinging" stocks with probe orders that are almost immediately cancelled, as described earlier. When a price is discovered, the shares are bought elsewhere and sold-on to the institution.

Program traders - By buying large numbers of stocks at the same time, they can trick institutional trading programs by triggering large buy orders that are tied to price moves. Once the institutions bite they can sell the stocks for a profit, leaving the traders as the 'patsy'. Flash traders - In this HFT scam, flash traders give an order to only one exchange. They execute it when - and only when - the order can go through without triggering "best price" procedure intended to give sellers on all exchanges a chance at meeting the best price. The Nasdaq will close the flash trading loophole on the 1st September 2009, and the SEC says it will ban this technique.

Nobel Economist Paul Krugman has been analyzing these traders and finds no economic value in what is being done; in fact he believes that if anything they are destroying value. "The stock market is supposed to allocate capital to its most productive uses, such as by helping companies with good ideas raise money. It's hard to see, however, how traders who place their orders one-thirtieth of a second faster than anyone else do anything productive," said Mr Krugman. "There is a good case that such activities are actually harmful. HFT probably degrades the stock market's function, because it's a kind of tax on investors who lack access to super computers and at-exchange connectivity - which means that the money Goldman spends on those computers actually has a negative effect on national wealth. As economist Kenneth Arrow said in 1973, speculation based on private information imposes a 'double social loss', by using up resources and undermining markets."

Not satisfied with milking the taxpayer, Goldman and friends have also escalated the profiteering arms race and are looking to skim everyone in the trading arena - partners, clients and each other. Can regulators keep up with the speed of their innovation and put in place sensible restrictions to protect the rest of us?

Juan Abdel Nasser, EconomyWatch.com


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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 1:54 AM

DREAMTROVE


Not Greek riots:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704879704575236771699461
084.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews


This guy knew a little bit more than he was letting on.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/02/whos-afraid-of-high-frequ
ency-trading
/

It's kind of significant. Capitalism was suspended for 20min last Thursday, and anyone watching could become an instant billionaire. Manoj Narang not only knows how to take advantage of it, he can actually make it happen.


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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 3:16 AM

JONGSSTRAW


Scam
Fraud
Market manipulation

But no one will be charged with anything.

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 3:44 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Yeah, I wonder how much of it was "error" or "fat finger", and how much was someone testing out their new software and a new theory about how to game the market.

A little "human error" can trigger massive cascading sell-offs in the automated systems, tumbling values of key stocks, and if you're situated just right and have the right limits built into YOUR software, you can pick up blue chips for literally pennies on the dollar. The company that makes Samuel Adams Boston Lager was, for a short time, valued at virtually nothing. Free. Take it for less than a penny a share, while supplies last. :)

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions


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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 5:07 AM

DREAMTROVE


Mike

Ah, at last, someone who gets it. There's a reason I've been beating this drum for the last few days. This is a much bigger story than, well, everything else on the board at the moment. Of course there was no error, and, yes, these stories are not telling you the whole story either, but if you read between the lines, you can see that these guys knew just what they were doing, and trying to get it through in under 20 min, hoping it would go unnoticed, a classic heist. The HFTs didn't back of because of the drop, they swarmed to it.

John made an interesting point about a govt. stop loss program which hands buying power directly to the member banks of the fed after a certain point. It sort of behooves the indians to not trigger that level in the future, to go for the discount rather than the free lunch.

Here's his thread
http://www.fireflyfans.net/mthread.asp?b=18&t=43131


Jong

Why would they get arrested?



ETA: Here's some more stuff on HFTs
http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/High-Frequency_Trading_%28HFT%29

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 6:54 AM

PIRATENEWS

John Lee, conspiracy therapist at Hollywood award-winner History Channel-mocked SNL-spoofed PirateNew.org wooHOO!!!!!!




$1-Trillion Was Not Enough
http://www.infowars.com/1-trillion-was-not-enough/

Banksters are holding USA and the world hostage for the "Greek" bailout.

Greek govt gets $150-billion in higher taxes on the Greek sheeple paid to the Euro banksters, but the Euro banksters get 2-TRILLION from Dictator Obama in higher taxes on US taxslaves.

That will be an open-ended blank check to the Euro banksters for the "Greek" PIGS bailout, just like the banksters got $30-trillion so far from Obamabushes' bankster bailout bill.


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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 5:05 PM

DREAMTROVE


John,

IMHO the greek thing is just another eurofascist move from Brussels seeking to control another European state, there's at least one or two of these every year, they try I crash an economy, and then appoint themselves as a savior.

Our fat finger was far worse of a crash than it appears, arguably the worst ever, it could be seen as destroying the concept, undermining our economy, etc. I think mike really nailed this one.

But the cause of fat finger was probably HFTs, not anything foreign. There were actually a lot of east indian economists, and some physicists, engineers involved. The other major factor seems to be spill over liability, brought on by the new leveraged supershort ETFs. I can explain what these are, but I figure people can Leo use the google, if someone is curiosu, just ask and I'll post explanations of any terms people don't know.

I see ipad wants to change people to peep. Not changing it to sheeple, Heflin. Yet. Yet got changed to Heflin. Don't know why. Whaf is Heflin?

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 5:41 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


I see it as a near-perfect confluence of events. The Greek problem, or something like it (a huge financial crisis in one localized area of the world, drawing attention away from main banking and trading centers while simultaneously making EVERYONE nervous about what that crisis will mean in those banking and trading centers), creates the diversion, allowing someone their perfect opportunity to try their new gizmo, while at the same time providing them near bulletproof deniability if anything is suspected.

I base this on nothing more than hunches and hearing several different "explanations", none of which really made much sense, and all of which have been either contradicted or outright denied by those thought to be behind them.

I get the strong feeling that some person or group (or group of groups) decided to act in collusion to see if they could drastically lower prices on SOME stocks in order to swoop in and grab them up, since they would be in position to do so already, with limit buy orders already placed so that if those stocks fell to a certain price, their 'bots would buy, buy, buy. The trick it insuring those stock WILL fall to that buy price. And that they'll then recover, so they can only gain money, and never lose any.

And once they'd achieved their goal, or shown "proof of concept" (shown that the idea was workable), they wanted to just walk away with a quick few billion in profits that they'd just engineered. Ideally, the companies they flash-crashed wouldn't be hurt - only the poor saps who had limit sell orders in place, or who panicked, would lose out. And they're weaklings anyway, in the eyes of the market, so good riddance and thanks for playing. The house wins again! And it's all designed to happen so fast - and if I'm right, it was designed to happen SMALL, not big - that nobody would really notice, unless they knew specifically what was coming and where to look for it.

What went wrong, I think, was that the cute algorithms didn't take into account basic human nature and the most basic chaos theory - the idea that beyond a certain number of secondary and tertiary reactions to a primary event, predictive algorithms are really no better than wild-ass guesses or random darts thrown at a board at predicting what will happen next. In other words, the hypothetical new trading algorithm wasn't able to factor in the human element of panic in it calculations. Things dropped, systems went into play automatically, things started getting TRULY weird, and then PEOPLE started reacting in ways not predicted by computer models, at which point all bets were off. Literally.

I can't prove any of this. I have no evidence. Just a hunch, a gut feeling that people are trying to manipulate the market, trying to run pump-n-dump schemes on a MASSIVE scale, and that those schemes got a little bigger than they'd planned on, and it happened faster than they could figure out how to deal with it.

But if there are people manipulating the markets in this way, you can bet that they'll be watching and learning from this latest experiment.

Now, who would do such a thing? China? North Korea? Russia? Goldman Sachs? Citigroup? Was it a flat-out money grab, or was it a test to see if our markets could be crashed by remote control? If we figure out WHAT happened, we also need to figure out WHY it happened and WHO stood to gain. That would likely tell us everything we needed to know.

Time may tell, but I bet Wall Street won't. ;) They have a vested interest in sweeping it under the rug and pretending it never happened in the first place, never mind the idea that it could ever happen again. Wall Street used to be the safe bet in market investing; now it's being seen for what it really is: a rigged casino where the decor is little more than spit and polish and a coat of cheap paint smeared over the rotting structure underneath, all held together with false hope.

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions


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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 6:27 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Don't know about all the rest, but the "fat finger" thing has been discounted and they're looking at what else might have been to blame, as well as setting up a "trigger" to keep it from happening again.

Myself,
Quote:

Yeah, I wonder how much of it was "error" or "fat finger", and how much was someone testing out their new software and a new theory about how to game the market.
The thought occurred...or maybe I've seen too much sci fi (tho' I think the former might be the strongest possibility...)


"I'm just right. Kinda like the sun rising in the east and the world being round...its not a need its just the way it is." The Delusional "Hero", 3/1/10

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Tuesday, May 11, 2010 8:08 PM

FREMDFIRMA



GIGO, Mikey... GIGO - such programming, hell, ANY programming where any part of the input or output has to do with humans, is only as good as the programmers comprehension of other human beings, and given that the folks involved in this particular gig happen to be fucking sociopaths...


Our pet A.I. tends to be full of surprises on that front, having detected someone being upset by the variance of their typing to it, and responding in a "comforting" manner to them, even though they were successfully hiding that from other humans in the office.

At what point, really... does one start considering them "people", is preyin hard on my mind as of late.

-F

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 3:30 AM

DREAMTROVE


Niki,

There is no "they" who are looking into it that you can trust. I think you will find the real looking into it is happening here, and on other forums around the Internet, by random citizens.


Mike,

Jon stewart already trashed the perfect storm theory pretty effectively. I think its probably something that they had already done, and just hit a larger vein by virtue of the size of the traffic playing the game, and the market conditions, which, to quote Stewart, was probably just a regular storm.

Thursday afternoon is a notoriously weak time for the market, when Friday selling spreads, a sign of things about to turn worse. There are 400 firms doing HFTs, so there's no way to control the volume of the game, once it's started. The real trigger here seems to be that someone removed buy orders from the system to percipitate a decline. After that, I think it was much more of a herd mentality among the 400 rather than any coordinated effort.

You missed a large block fo trades forced out, stop losses. Most stop losses are entered by the shareholders, but brokerage firms will stop you out if the stock is down more than 50% or so especially if you have a particularly large position because your wealth is their wealth, and they don't want to go under. In that way, it's like stealing a position from another shareholder, but I don't see it as necessarily being a conspiracy, I looks more chaotic than that. If I were running a conspiracy, the goal probably wouldn't be to take over proctor and gamble, otoh, I wouldn't invade Iraq either.

You are right that they did swoop. John suggested that the Fed has special powers to swoop in extreme circumstance. This would make the system extremely fragile.

Your right about chaos theory entering into this in a big way. I suspect when the scenario you describe evolved, many HFT companies panicked and sold, making situation worse. And yes, undoubtedly some of them lost a ton of cash because their algorithms didn't work.

Goldman, citigroup, lol, yes. Think of it as a pump in reverse. Have you worked in this field? If not, maybe you should. Lovely description of the market. :)




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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 4:16 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Nope, never worked in the field. Just collating data coming in from lots of sources. :)




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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 9:11 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


DT, I'm very much afraid you may be right. Now THIS is a conspiracy theory I could get behind, whether the conspiracy is on the part of Wall Sreet or, as Mike suggested, some hackers, we'll probably never know the truth.


"I'm just right. Kinda like the sun rising in the east and the world being round...its not a need its just the way it is." The Delusional "Hero", 3/1/10

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 11:41 AM

DREAMTROVE


Niki, glad you lie it. I'm not sure it's a conspiracy theory, but its a theory. I suppose the coverup might be a conspiracy, we heard a lot about fat finger and errors from the media base on a not very credible citigroup say so. The problem with most conspiracy theories is that the require a coordination of humans with a single idea, and give thar idea to a single group, when it's more likely that multiple people would have the Idea, and they would follow some sort of group behavior, here some sort of herd/flock behavior.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 11:56 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Well, kiddo, I'M not glad I like it, I'd rather the world not be the kind of place where it sounds logical...sigh...

And yes, it's partly BECAUSE we heard the "fat finger" all over the place, then a day or two later they come out with "well, we don't think it was that after all", that my eyes narrowed.

Hope eventually we DO find out the reason, tho' heaven knows the reason we "find out" might well not be the real one. I hate that...


"I'm just right. Kinda like the sun rising in the east and the world being round...its not a need its just the way it is." The Delusional "Hero", 3/1/10

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:28 PM

DREAMTROVE


Niki

Read this thread, and the links, and the read between the lines, because you have to figure that the NYT and the Wall St Jo are not about to tell you the whole story because they are invested in the companies involved, and they are unlikely to let on that anything untoward happened in the marketplace.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 2:41 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


DT, I find that's getting to be the norm for just about ANY news story. You have to get coverage from a wide variety of sources, and THEN you have to try to filter it all down and figure out what they AREN'T saying. That's when you have the nub of the real story, it seems.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 3:00 PM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Nah, DT, not worth it. Got better things to do; this particular happening doesn't do it for me.

Of course you're right, I'm sure. I find I get more accurate information from friends OUTSIDE the US or on the internet than I do from national news. Newstainment has taken over...but at least it's not yet as bad as Aires & Co. Give it time...


"I'm just right. Kinda like the sun rising in the east and the world being round...its not a need its just the way it is." The Delusional "Hero", 3/1/10

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 4:36 PM

DREAMTROVE


Mike,

Your undoubtedly right. Maybe we should start a news service.


Niki,

Whatever suits you. Offhand, I would say this is *the* news story, and I would say this random little trading glitch on a thursday afternoon should go up there with "Germany annexes Austria" in import ants. Ooh, nice one iPad. How about importance instead of import ants. Lol.

True, you could argue that the housing collapse of 2008 is the panic of 1907 and we're all shuffling off to Jeckyll Island, and if that's the case and you want to say that's a bigger story than Germany annexes Austria, I might well concede the point. Still, these are fairly major events that most of the population will only recognize in hindsight as they sit in the rubble of the aftermath of it all, wondering how they got there.

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Wednesday, May 12, 2010 5:43 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


DT: Agreed - this IS the big story. While we're arguing over the non-issue of immigration, and while BP asks for bailouts and volunteers to help it clean up its mess (funny, they never asked me to volunteer to help share their $5.3 BILLION PROFIT for the first quarter of this year...), something serious is afoot on Wall Street, some rough beast, its hour come 'round at last, slouching toward Bethlehem.

This is like that feeling we had back in 2004 and 2005, regarding housing prices and the market. My wife and I were looking, then looking at each other, aghast and agape, and saying "This isn't right. This can't last. This is built on fake money. This isn't a housing market - it's a house of cards!" Neither of us could pinpoint it, but something wasn't right. We came *this* close to buying more house than I could afford right now, and I had to walk away, because something was coming, and if you put your ear to the ground, you could not only hear it, but you could feel the thunder.

I'm not prescient; I'm no genius or savant. There's almost certainly the faintest feathery touch of Asperger's, but mostly I notice patterns and get "gut feelings". I've learned to listen to them, and my gut is telling me that there's something very dirty going on, and it's something that no one wants to talk about. The deck chairs are being rearranged, the band's warming up with a stirring rendition of "Nearer My God To Thee", and we're heading on a northerly route. What could possibly go wrong?

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions


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Thursday, May 13, 2010 1:35 AM

DREAMTROVE


Mike,

This isn't rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic, its the deck chairs on the hindenberg ;)

Seriously though, yes, something is a miss. I'll tell you what tipped me off to the housing bubble: it lacked an underlying fundamental. In order for the prices of housing to change, the number of houses had to decline, or the population needed to rise.e since there wasn't a significant change in either, the price change needed to be built on air.

Have you read Michael burry's piece on it?

The new game in town is HFTs, and it's here until either it or the market gets plowed under. The essence here is time dilation, which is the reason I always doubted these future wars like terminator and matrix... Yes, I went through this with videogames. Writing video games, it's very difficult to make it very difficult, but easy to make it impossible. The human user can always outsmart the AI, but the AI ultimate wins on speed. Time has a similar impact to numbers, ie, one genius may outsmart everyone individually, but not everyone collectively, if they are working together. If your playing against a guy who makes 90,000 trades a second, it's unlikely you can. Beat him, regardless of how good you are. That might be a weak parallel, but you get the point.

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Thursday, May 13, 2010 1:41 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


I haven't read the articles yet, but they're on my list.

Mike

"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero, Real World Event Discussions


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