REAL WORLD EVENT DISCUSSIONS

Why is the world in such dire economic straits, and what can we do about it?

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Friday, October 14, 2022 19:23
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Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:16 PM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


First of all, why are so many nations in such trouble? It seems like every nation's cause is a little bit different from every other nation's:

The USA has a significant wealth gap, and personal consumption fueled by credit.
The USA and Britain had massive real estate bubbles.
The Greek government overspent its budget.
Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS) didn't have personal over-consumption and a high personal debt load, but were the recipients of over-investment from other EU nations.
Despite a lot of “socialist spending” and redistributive policies, the Icelandic government ran in the black. Iceland was brought down when it's three major banks engaged in out-and-out commercial bank fraud.
Italy, which is a large exporting economy, got caught by rising interest.

If we are to prevent this all from happening again, what are we to make of all of these disparate causes? Each nation seems to belie whatever cause we want to attribute to another nation. So we can rule out Fannie and Freddie because they don't apply to Europe. We can rule out socialist spending that doesn't apply to the USA. We can rule out government deficits and the wealth gap because those don't apply to Iceland, and we can rule out personal debt because that doesn't apply to the PIGS. There is a lot they DON'T have in common!

But, the one thing they DID have in common was “investment” in projects or sectors which were not about to generate a return, even in the medium-term. In the USA and Britain, the over-investment was in homes. In the PIGS, it was in large infrastructural projects; in Greece it was also in government bonds, in Iceland it was actually in fraudulent self-dealt bank loans for commercial projects.

The other thing to realize is that this has happened before: In the 1970's, due to a huge increase in oil prices, the Middle East nations (Saudi Arabia particularly) became the holders of a mountain of cash, specifically the USA dollar, and invested in huge infrastructural projects in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina- projects which could not be supported on a cash basis due to lack of either internal or external demand. This led to the Latam debt crisis of 1982. The same thing happened to the Asian "tiger" economies of 1997: over-investment by outside money created a "bubble" which led to an ephemeral rise in GDP, leading to the illusion of growth, which sucked in more money, until the illusion of growth could no longer be sustained. The same problem started the Great Depression.

-----------
It seems there are epidemics of horrible investments, rash investments, possibly even desperate investments, not just now but throughout history. Rich people who have bought all of the yachts, mansions and jets that one can possibly buy and are now looking to make money with their money.

So why do the investments go sour?

Well, I think in a way it's the eternal mismatch of production and consumption under capitalism. Think of it this way: If the world produces a trillion dollars worth of goods and services, but the small fraction of ppl who own the companies only pays their workers $900 billion, the companies can only sell $900 billion dollars worth. That's $100 billion worth of goods and services that's not about to be sold, and $100 billion in the hands of a few who are NOT going to “spend” all of that money, they are going to “invest” a certain amount. Now, that investment can either go to loans (to increase consumption – which won't be ultimately affordable), or to increase production (which can't be sold to ppl who can't afford the goods), or to consolidate ownership, or to increase automation (which throws even more ppl out of work,who will not be able to buy much), or to speculation (diamonds, artwork, tulip bulbs) ... Each time money goes through the production-consumption cycle, more money goes up into the stratosphere... there is a bigger and bigger bundle of money looking for a home... but there is also less and less money available to buy stuff, and sooner or later the consumption-engine runs out of steam, making all investments problematic.

So, it seems that the real problem is somewhat manifold: the concentration of wealth, the withdrawal of money from the consumption end of things and the buildup of money on the investment side.

Anyway, if you're still with me, I'll try and wrap up with what to do about it later.



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Wednesday, November 9, 2011 10:45 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I got it, but now my head hurts.

But yeah - I've had that idea about a cut of the money going off to the wealthy at each turn of sale-cycle. I just never put it together with investments.



We have to realize that the biosphere we live in is fragile and cannot be treated like a battered wife because the surface of the planet itself is not fragile. It will simply adjust probably eliminating us in the process. The core of the planet is beyond our ability to affect and can deal up some pretty horrific to us events. The space around the planet is hostile beyond our comprehension. And there are no exits.

EVERY SINGLE YEAR BETWEEN 1996 AND 2005 66% OF ALL FCDS CORPORATIONS PAID NO TAXES.
I think the current tax structure is about right for corporations. - Geezer


Without the benefit of the surrounding society, a corporation dies. If society looks at a corporation and says 'work, or die', what work should be demanded of the corporation for it to earn its survival?

While Wall St. is going through the roof, Main St. is paying all the bills.

Remember when teachers, public employees, Planned Parenthood, NPR and PBS crashed the stock market, wiped out half of our 401Ks, took trillions in taxpayer funded bailouts, spilled oil in the Gulf of Mexico, gave themselves billions in bonuses, and paid no taxes?

Yeah, me neither....


We're not rich because we work for our money. Rich people have their money work for them. Mrs. Huxtable

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Wednesday, November 9, 2011 10:48 PM

FREMDFIRMA



Greed.

And economic policies based in fiction and wishful thinking instead of cold, hard facts.

As to what can be done, I doubt many if any of my reccommendations would be palatable to most people cause just about all of them involve some level of retribution against folk who laid down and carried out those policies KNOWING the result, so long as THEY benefitted.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Wednesday, November 9, 2011 10:49 PM

FREMDFIRMA


(Reposted with explicit permission)

THE ELEVENTH MARBLE

by Michael Rivero

Any five-year old child knows that if you put ten marbles into a tin can, you can only take ten marbles back out. No amount of wishful thinking, dreaming, or praying, will yield that eleventh marble from inside that can. That eleventh marble does not exist. It never did, and it never will. All discussions about the eleventh marble are the product of imagination. The eleventh marble is a fantasy.

Private central bankers issuing the public currency as interest-bearing loans operate on the belief that they can put ten marbles (dollars) into a tin can (the world) and magically get 11 marbles back out. Thus, we may conclude that the bankers are dumber than five-year old children! But unlike five-year old children, the bankers will take your home, your business, and your nation when they don't get that eleventh marble! The spoiled child may cry and throw a tantrum, but that will be the end of their upset. The spoiled banker, however, in his or her arrogant rage that they cannot have the eleventh marble their imagination says must still be in that tin can, may start a war before they will admit that eleventh marble was never really there.

Economies are like tin cans. Before you can take a marble out, you must have put a marble in. Nobody can give you a marble that does not exist, yet this simple reality is lost to the priests of that fantastic religion called banking in that unholiest of temples called the IMF. Their religious doctrine seems to be that there must always be an eleventh marble inside the tin can, and that the tin can unfairly withholds that eleventh marble, indeed cheats them of their right to the eleventh marble, purely out of spite. That faith in the existence of the eleventh marble, unseen and improvable, is the article of faith the religion of banking rests on. It is far easier to burn the heretics than to question the dogma.

Today we see the bankers, having already retrieved their ten marbles from the tin can, flogging the world for that missing eleventh marble. Greece does not have that eleventh marble, so they turn to Germany and ask, "Do you have an eleventh marble", and Germany replies, "Sorry, but the bankers already took the ten marbles they put in our tin can, and we are searching for an eleventh marble ourselves. Try the Americans." The Americans, of course, have only just surrendered the last of their ten marbles back to the bankers and are looking under seat cushions for that missing eleventh marble nobody seems able to find.

But the eleventh marble will never be found. After all that mayhem brought down on the tin can there still will be no eleventh marble. It does not exist. It never did, and it never will.

The problem with all modern reserve banking systems is that the moment the first bank note goes into circulation as the proceed of a loan at interest, more money is owed to the banks than actually exists. Ten marbles have been put into the tin can, but the bankers see 11 marbles owed back to them. Sooner or later the non-existence of that eleventh marble will create a crisis of faith. People will stop believing in the religion called private central banking, and that crisis of faith will bring the system crashing down, as did the Temple of Baal in ancient times when the Syrians saw through the priests' trickery. This evil magic of creating money out of debt was a fraud all along, as fraudulent and silly as the idea that one can put ten marbles into a tin can, and take out eleven.

In ages to come economists will look back at this failed experiment in debt-based currency, and dump it into the same category of human folly as Tulip mania, The Nation of Poyais, Credit Mobilier, the Great South Seas Company, and Mortgage-Backed Securities.

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 2:14 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Frem,

Excellent article. Go Michael!

The problem as I see it, is not just the fantasy 11th marble. Because there are many tin cans (mini-economies) out there, all with 10 marbles each. When you take the 10 marbles out of your own tin can, you look to someone else's tin can for the 11th marble, leaving them with only 9. They go to another tin can to get their missing "2" marbles, and the next tin can is left with 8. Eventually, you get the tin can with 0 marbles, because its marbles went towards the 11th marble fund of 10 other tin cans.


The 11th marble model illustrates that wealth is a finite commodity. If some people have more, it came from people who have less.

Which brings us back to your first post: Greed.

The 11th marble must come from somewhere. It comes from making a huge proportion of our population less than poor. Some people have plusses because the rest of the people are in the minuses.

Why do investments fail? Because it is not only that they are looking for the 11th marble. They are SELLING the 11th marble. It is a gambling/lottery racket. There are not enough "11th marbles" to go around, so in greed, they start selling the HOPE of the 11th marble.

I tell my kids this story, which you all have heard before.

Little boy named Ken moves from the city to the country. He decides to buy a donkey. He pays the farmer $200 in advance to pick up the donkey on Friday. However, when he shows up, the farmer tells him the donkey died Thursday night, and the money is already spent. Ken says, "Fine. But at least give me the dead donkey." The farmer asks, "What are you going to do with a dead donkey?" Ken answers, "I'm going to sell him."

Months later, Ken bumps into the farmer, who asked what happened with dead donkey. Ken explains that he sold $2 raffle tickets for a chance to win a free donkey, without telling anyone that the donkey was dead. 150 people buy the tickets, making him $300.

The farmer asked, "My gosh! Didn't anyone complain that you were raffling a dead donkey?" Ken replied, "The guy who won the raffle did. But I just gave him his $2 back."

(The story goes on to say Ken grew up to run Enron....)

Anyway, substitute "11th marble" for "dead donkey," and you get the picture of what our investment system is like. We no longer operate the old-fashioned dividend-based capitalism, but some sort of complex gambling racket we call "investment." Brokers are simply bookies.

Asking why investments fail is like asking why gambling or lotteries fail. They don't, for the house. They are expected to fail for everyone else.



-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 4:55 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


FREM that is a great analogy, and CTS, that is a great extension.

What you are referring to is the creation of debt, specifically interest-bearing debt.

I left that out of my post because there will be still booms and busts even without the banksters (who do indeed have their paws in everything we do nowadays!)

Imagine many tin cans with ten marbles, everyone in a circle having to pass a marble to their left. Now imagine that Freddy is allowed to take an extra marble every ten marbles, and keep it for himself. It becomes clear that eventually all of the marbles will be in Freddy's hands and the game (economy) stops

The Keynesian solution to this problem is to have someone feeding extra marbles into the game... if they are good at it, they will feed in those extra marbles at about the same rate as the marbles are being withdrawn... that is called "monetary policy", or "printing extra money". The game goes on, and the marbles in Freddy's hands become worth less over time because of inflation ("the invisible tax").

If marbles are merely added to the game, then the solution is relatively benign. But let's say that marbles are LOANED to any one of the players,,, it doesn't matter who, it could even be Freddie... with the idea that those extra marbles will be re-payed with even more marbles... then we in the imaginary eleventh-marble model, which ultimately accelerates the w/drawal of marbles from circulation.

The reason why I bring this up is because there were depressions even before there were central banks (IMF, ECB, World Bank, the Fed, etc). Getting rid of interest-bearing loans would help, but would not be sufficient to stop economies from falling into depressions.

And yes, CTS, TPTB know about booms and busts... they create them, and ride them to even greater wealth. There were never so many luxury cars sold per capita as during the Great Depression. But everyone else is left to struggle in very choppy economic waters.


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Thursday, November 10, 2011 5:05 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


In any case, that still leaves us with the conundrum of "what to do about it".

Getting rid of those marble-loans would help, but there is still that concentration of marble's in Freddie's hands.

So, do we work on taking the marbles out of Freddie's hands? Changing the rules of the game so Freddie doesn't get to keep those extra marbles? But isn't there some sort of benefit to keeping some marbles in reserve (savings) for unanticipated expenses?

Anyway, in terms of money flow the marbles are a great analogy, but once we get into production we get into an area where the analogy breaks down.

Also, while I agree that greed is at the heart of the matter, I don't think raising people to be "not greedy" is the answer, because there will be that very very small percentage who will still be greedy nonetheless. And they can siphon off just a little from a lot of people, and no one would notice. Furthermore, there is no system of redress.

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 6:20 AM

BYTEMITE


I agree.

I think that the best way to mitigate concentrations of wealth and less wealth on the consumption side is to create a competing economic system. Perhaps one which does the virtual side of things better than the current system, or one that does the real world asset side of things better. Or both. If an economic system can do that, and it benefits the participants of that economic system, it will thrive and displace the old school systems.

The only thing you have to watch out for would be the people with a keen interest to squash any possible competition or rising lower class.

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 6:40 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
So, do we work on taking the marbles out of Freddie's hands? Changing the rules of the game so Freddie doesn't get to keep those extra marbles?

Personally, I like the idea of saying "Fuck you, you can keep your fucking marbles" to Freddy, and inventing widgets to fill our empty tin cans.

THEN set up rules so that no one can sell or lend the 11th widget.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 6:44 AM

BYTEMITE


Also agreed!

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 7:11 AM

FREMDFIRMA



So essentially - Outlaw Usury ?

Yanno, one of the unstated bitches a lot of western society has with Muslim culture, other than the obvious shit even *I* hold them accountable for, much of which is in defiance of their own friggin holy book...

Is Islamic Banking - because Usury is considered morally repugnant even where it's not downright illegal - that shitheads like Chalabi and Karazi don't hold with this is one reason we tried to install them as puppets without realizing that even by itself cements public opinion of them as criminals even without all the other shit they pulled.

Libya, for another example, and just how fast THAT is gonna go downhill and start lookin like all the other nations the IMF "helped", well, is obvious.

Oh yeah, and instead of bombing wedding parties maybe we should spare a couple for the IMF right after declaring them to be the economic terrorists that they truly are - but then that'd require admitting that they're the primary bagman for western corporations...

Again and again, when the truth comes it, it's always our so-called protectors who are the real danger to us, ain't it ?

Heads.
On Spikes.

And while it ain't gonna happen by my hand, it *IS* going to happen - no longer a matter of if, but only a matter of when.

Come on people, you've read history.

-Frem

I do not serve the Blind God.

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Thursday, November 10, 2011 7:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I think there's a difference between blaming people and blaming systems.

There will always be a greedy Freddie somewhere.

But I think people can set up systems that result in consequences completely independent of intentional agency. Wolfram demonstrated how a few simple rules repeated many times can create patterns far more complex than would be intuitively obvious. With our laws and cultural norms we may have create complex results.

Since the results of what we think are simple rules may be complex, rather than focus on our rules, I think we need to look at results. If the results aren't to our liking, we need to alter what we are doing.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 5:34 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


On continuing thought ... for example, take the banks - please! Oh, wait, ... back on track ... and rules for 'capitalization rates'.

One way to keep banks from creating 'funny money' is to require 100% capitalization. ie they can't expand the money supply beyond that which already exists.

Banks would then make their profit, albeit a much, much, MUCH smaller one than now, on the difference between interest paid to savers v interest required from debtors.

But that leads to a second problem. The drive is to MAXIMIZE profit. Under that restriction (100% capitalization leading to far lower profit margins) what investor in their right mind would invest in a bank? And there's a second problem and that's cultural. That rule might possibly work with the ordinary saver/ borrower in the west, but it wouldn't work in Japan where people save at prodigious rates but don't borrow. (Up until Fukushima where Japan's economy melted with the corium) Japan's banks paid negative interest rates to savers due to the problem of too many savers, and not enough borrowers - or in balance sheet terms, too much outlay (interest to savers) and not enough income (interest from borrowers).

So simple rules I think can neither run an economy, nor can they, IMHO, account for the greedy Freddy or Fannie who does have intentional agency and will sidestep and sideswipe whatever rules he or she can.

So, let's get rid of private banks, eh? After all they're problematic for the economy and create chaos when they act in their own investors' interest at the expense of the society.

Does a public bank recreate the same issues, or a raft of different ones? I simply haven't thought that far.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 7:35 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


FREM, it's easy to say anti-usury laws... usury is definitely a problem... but that is far too limited.

There is one thing that I have learned from history, and that is the drive towards centralized power is relentless. Whatever series of “donts” are devised, someone will find a way around them, just like credit default swaps were created to evade the regulations on both insurances and deposits (paltry as those regulations were!) So, I think we really need to be thinking three or four steps ahead, not just reacting to the excesses of the day.

I conducted a series of thought-experiments to each possible economic proposal to see how it would fare (economically) in the long-run. But if my previous post made heads hurt, this one even makes MY head hurt!
----------------

The first problem seems to be with money... the marble analogy. Once money comes into being, it develops a life of its own. It can be hoarded, it can be loaned, it can be used to gain control. And if you have a marble-making machine... Well! So- let's control the creation of money: That was the first thought that came into my head. Banks are in business to create debt. They are allowed to make money on money... actually it's even worse than that, they are allowed to make money on money they DON'T EVEN HAVE. The government requires that banks have only ONE dollar of actual invested money for each FIVE dollars they loan out... that is called the capitalization rate. So banks are allowed in fact to create money. I would require 100% capitalization rates... you CAN'T LOAN MONEY YOU DON'T HAVE. Or even better, separate out savings and loans altogether... make banks just big mattresses for people's savings. If people want to invest, let them do their own damn investing on their own dime. This would certainly eliminate bank fraud, fraudulent loans, spurious money-creation, and a lot of the crap that has brought down financial systems many times in the last century.

But what about corporate bonds? Private loans? Government bonds? ANY form of loans with interest creates that 11th marble, in the expectation that the lender will get that 11th marble back in the form of interest... an 11th marble than doesn't actually exist. So, limit interest rates to the inflation rate.

But, there is still the problem of the stock market. The stock market epitomizes the worst of the worst of financialism. The “owners” (shareholders) of a company often don't know what a company makes, whether or not it is a better product than its closest competitors, how it can be improved, all they care about is “more”... will this company make more profit this year? Will it make more profit than it's nearest competitor? Can I sell this stock next year for more than I paid for it this quarter? They are the absentee landlords of our production system, squeezing money out of production, often to the point of degrading both the product and the facility. So, I would get rid of the stock market.

Oh, but then there still is the idea of “profit”. Freddie is still allowed to take out every tenth marble. So we have private companies run for profit which will – over time- net their individual owners an increasing amount of circulating money... er, marbles... the supply of which we have severely restricted by eliminating profit-based loans. Sooner or later, a few Freddies will have ALL the marbles. What then? Company scrip?

All right. Eliminate corporations altogether. We'll all work either as individual business-owners or in “cooperatives” where we will ALL be part-owners, and we will ALL decide what to do with our revenues at the end of the year. We still have the market... after all, we have to sell our products into the marketplace at competitive prices.... we still have to hire at competitive wages... but there will be actual workplace democracy, where the owners know the process, know the product, have an interest in long-term viability, and are able to access loans at the inflation rate, and everybody gets to have a piece of the pie at the end of the year, if they so choose.

But drat- there's STILL a problem! Let's take our hypothetical cooperative, and assume that by happenstance it has a majority of worker-owners who have an expansionist frame of mind. Rather than pocketing their profit at the end of the year they bank it. And the next year, and the year after that. Then they take their accumulated money and buy more land. Or more machines. Or better automation. And they make more money, and still being of an expansionist frame of mind they eventually take over the vast majority of production, and if they have invested in automation- which seems like a reasonable business decision- they will have once again created a small coterie of owners and a vast majority of people on the outside looking in.

Well! So much for the “ownership society”!

It seems that once we strip away all of the excesses of the day- insupportable loans, spurious money-creation, the absentee landlordism of the stock market... we are still left with the irreducible problem of “investment for profit”. Or maybe the problem is “profit for investment”. Or perhaps the REAL problem is simply “investment”.

So, we restrict the use of money to buying stuff and paying wages? But there is one more thing to consider; and that is the concept of “profit”. “Profit” is money leftover after expenses. Some would call it “savings”. Looked at in the aggregate, it is some sort of production which cannot be sold, because money has been withheld from potential consumers. In THAT sense, it could be called “surplus”. And yanno what? There is nothing wrong with surplus... we SHOULD have surplus....spare production in case of future need, or unanticipated emergencies such as natural disaster, or for activities that aren't immediately productive, like education and environmental protection.

So limiting money to buying and selling? Er, maybe not such a good idea either.

What next????
Getting rid of marbles altogether?

Marbles... er, money... is far too convenient to give up. The world could simply not operate on multi-party bartering.... the only thing that would make that even feasible is worldwide exchange system... a giant Craigslist... but one good solar flare and POOF! there goes all of those complex arrangements! Currency should be fungible and durable, and there is nothing less certain that bits and bytes.


So, I have gone through a bunch of ideas that WON'T work.... at least, not in the long run.

On to ideas that MIGHT work. But it would require a radical restructuring.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 7:57 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


I wanted to reiterate that these are simply thought-experiments. We do need a lot of real reform, now.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 10:43 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Then they take their accumulated money and buy more land. Or more machines. Or better automation. And they make more money, and still being of an expansionist frame of mind they eventually take over the vast majority of production, and if they have invested in automation- which seems like a reasonable business decision- they will have once again created a small coterie of owners and a vast majority of people on the outside looking in.

I don't see how this is a problem. Because, if we're not talking any 11th marbles, the majority of people who have traded labor or land or whatever they've sold to the expansionist SHOULD have gotten something worth JUST AS MUCH back.

Quote:

... we are still left with the irreducible problem of “investment for profit”. Or maybe the problem is “profit for investment”. Or perhaps the REAL problem is simply “investment”.
Again, I don't see why investment for profit is a problem.

I have $10. I trade 5 for water, 3 for lemons, and 2 for sugar. I make lemonade, and I trade my 10 cups of lemonade for $2 each. If I sell all my cups, I double my money. Or you can say, I earn $10 profit as compensation for my idea, labor, and risk. What is the difference between this and spending the day helping you move in exchange for $10?

The problem is the worth of intangible products and services like "labor" and "invention" and "hope." As long as those things are marketable at all, someone will invent the 11th marble.



-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Friday, November 11, 2011 10:52 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I don't see how this is a problem. Because, if we're not talking any 11th marbles, the majority of people who have traded labor or land or whatever they've sold to the expansionist SHOULD have gotten something worth JUST AS MUCH back.
Our enterprising cooperative has just invested in a machine that will allow them to do twice the work with the same number of people. They will be able to produce at lower cost than their neighboring cooperatives, and make more sales. Some cooperatives in that sector go out of business, creating unemployment. Our enterprising cooperative then expands into other products or other geographic areas, and with their emphasis on labor-saving devices put even MORE people out of work.

At its theoretical endpoint, there will be a small number of the original cooperative owners who own ALL of the productive capacity, and their procedures are very productive indeed... much can be made with little labor. But the vast majority of ppl who can't compete at that level of productivity will be unemployed, and also unable to buy anything.

And BTW, I am all for labor-saving devices! But there is one caveat to automation: If you tie the distribution of money to work, and then you automate everything there will be a lot of people with no way to earn money!

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Friday, November 11, 2011 11:04 AM

FREMDFIRMA



I still favor the idea of edible currency with an expiration date.

-F

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Friday, November 11, 2011 11:04 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I think the issue is when people collect $ without producing anything of value.

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Friday, November 11, 2011 1:21 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


All very complex stuff.

I wanted to add something about the marbles. It's not about the actual marbles, its about what you would be willing to exchange for the marbles. The great unknown variable.

Kids don't seem to play with them now days, but they were popular when I was a kid. When the game was at its absolute height of popularity, you'd do and give a lot for the marbles you wanted. And not all marbles are valued equally, you might swap a couple of aggies for a tom bowler, or there was craze for oxbloods, which meant they were particularly valuable.

Then the school banned marbles. Can you believe it? We'd drawn chalk circles all over the carpet or some other heinous crime. Then they were worth virtually nothing. You couldn't give them away.

That is economics in a nutshell. It's not about gold, or anything tangible, its about desire, fear, greed, optomism, pessimism, suspicion, rumours, bravado..... Its actually incredibly emotive and nothing much more. That's why if it didn't impact on our day to day lives, it would be an incredibly funny folly. The thought that the world runs on such smoke and mirrors is hilarious and frightening.

So solutions.... look to the countries that are not in crisis, and Australia is one of them, and see what works.

I'd like to see a return to having at least one nationally owned bank. I belong to a bank that never used to have to have to worry about share holder dividends, and didn't charge enormous fees and interest. Now considered acceptable now of course, in these days where any idea of a national owned anything is considered free market sacrilidge. But it did work for a long time.


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Friday, November 11, 2011 6:20 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
And BTW, I am all for labor-saving devices! But there is one caveat to automation: If you tie the distribution of money to work, and then you automate everything there will be a lot of people with no way to earn money!

*Everything* is relative. I cannot conceive of automation of *everything* in the foreseeable future.

Yes, as automation displaced people throughout history, quite a number of folks have been disenfranchised. But if you look at the overall history, new industries emerged with new and different kinds of jobs. Technological progress is inevitable, but people are resilient and grow with the change. Yes, some people do get hurt, but the growing pains are not permanent.

I don't see it as a problem, at least, not enough that I would impose the Amish time-freeze on society or prevent investment for profit.


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Friday, November 11, 2011 9:22 PM

DREAMTROVE


The world can't be in dire economic straits, that's nonsensical, like saying all the children are above average.

That said, you have a point. The problem is neocons, neolibs, globalism in general. What the world economy needs is trade barriers. You're spot on about Greece, etc.

Socialism is still a disaster, and the source of much of the economic pain. Europe has been an economic disaster for decades because of it, which is why Europe is not a place you think of a world economic power in spite of their dominance in so much of world industry, technology and information. The US is ceasing to be a world power, but our overspending and bank bailouts, handouts, and unlimited capital creation at the discount window has corrupted the currency system here, and in every currency tied to the dollar, or with an open exchange policy with the dollar.

I guess better than trade barriers would be to scrap the currency and start a new one. It might sound extreme, but it has been done many times before, even here.


BTW, you can't rule of Fannie and Freddie from the European disaster because dollars were freely exchangable for Euros, and in fact, the fiscal malfeasance tied to them was probably about 1/2 of the overall excess currency creation, but that also means that there was another half not connected to them.

The Saudi boom was natural, they produced a product, we bought it. This is not. This is nonsense. People are inventing numbers and juggling them on computers, there's no economy behind it.

Mansions and Yachts are good. That's people earning money and spending it on small business which employs people. That's a functional economy. That's not our problem. Our problem is nonsense. It's printing off 16 trillion for yourself at the discount window with fractional reserve lending. That's the problem.

I see Frem beat me to it on this one, so I'll shut up now.


That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 3:00 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by Fremdfirma:

I still favor the idea of edible currency with an expiration date.

-F

Money is the root of all evil. I believe it more and more.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 3:03 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by dreamtrove:
Mansions and Yachts are good. That's people earning money and spending it on small business which employs people. That's a functional economy. That's not our problem. Our problem is nonsense. It's printing off 16 trillion for yourself at the discount window with fractional reserve lending. That's the problem.

Well said.

We rose to superpowerdom with the largest manufacturing economy in the world. We are crashing because we sold that manufacturing economy to China and moved to a gambling economy.

It's so stupid we DESERVE our impending doom.


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 5:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

Europe has been an economic disaster for decades because of it, which is why Europe is not a place you think of a world economic power in spite of their dominance in so much of world industry, technology and information.
HUH??? What do you base this on? Growth rate? National balance sheets? Standard of living? It sure would be nice if your brought some evidence to the table to back this up, because many of the most socialist countries are exporting powerhouses. And nearly all of the nations' government budgets (with the exception of Greece and Italy) were running in the black UNTIL the crisis... it was only AFTER the crisis hit that they had to empty their treasuries to shore up their (private) banks.

Where the EU DOES have a problem is their banking, and that is where the problem started for most of the affected EU nations. If you think OUR banking regulations are soft, we only got rid of Glass Steagall (in 1999... another nail in Clinton's coffin IMHO) to "keep up" with the EU.

THEY don't have a division between "savings" and "investment" banks. THEY operate under Basel II while OUR banks operate under FDIC. THEIR capitalization requirements were even lower than ours. Since the crisis began in every nation (except Greece) with a commercial/ investment bank crisis, it turns out that crazy capitalist-style banking was their Achilles heel. I know you have a hard-on against anything that smacks of "socialism", but at this point the only thing you're bringing to the discussion is prejudice (Prejudice... to pre-judge, not on the basis of fact).

Quote:

BTW, you can't rule of Fannie and Freddie from the European disaster because dollars were freely exchangable for Euros, and in fact, the fiscal malfeasance tied to them was probably about 1/2 of the overall excess currency creation,
Uh huh. Another baseless statement? Where do you get this "half" figure from?

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 6:11 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


CTS... you have not thought the automation problem through entirely. Automation by itself is not a problem. It is the fact that automation concentrates the flow of money into the hands of those who own the equipment.

ANY concentration of money is to be regarded as a possible problem, but under capitalism that is what money does... relentlessly and ceaselessly.

It's counter-intuitive to think of money just naturally concentrating. It's almost like thinking of water flowing uphill, or gas collecting in a corner of the room.

But there is ONE natural analogy to money concentration which may make the idea more intuitive, and that is gravity. Even if you start out with a uniform distribution of matter in space, by chance some particles will bump into each other and stick. Once that happens, they form a slightly larger gravity field, which collects more mass. And of course, the more mass an object has, the more it mass it gathers to itself. Eventually, an object will form which will collect up all loose matter.

The same thing happens with money. Now, money is no good unless it is FLOWING. Once it is all collected up in a single space, it stops being any good at all.

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 6:59 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
It is the fact that automation concentrates the flow of money into the hands of those who own the equipment.

Until someone else invents new automation equipment. Then it starts flowing to him/her.

I know where you're going with the gravity analogy. I suspect you will suggest government policy as the only solution to the gravity problem. It is the only working model of anti-gravity, as it were.

My solution has always been new technology. If government doesn't get in the way of ANYONE coming up with new technology, then anyone can be the new center of gravity, if you will. Evolution is the anti-gravity. The old fade away, and the new take over.


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 7:03 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

I suspect you will suggest government policy as the only solution to the gravity problem. It is the only working model of anti-gravity, as it were.
The best function of government, as I see it, is to actively push power back downwards, to the people.
Quote:

My solution has always been new technology. If government doesn't get in the way of ANYONE coming up with new technology, then anyone can be the new center of gravity, if you will. Evolution is the anti-gravity. The old fade away, and the new take over.
And yet here we are... many technological revolutions later... and 10% of the world wants the latest iPhone, while 50% just want more food. Not seeing how technological revolutions have really solved this problem.

Maybe new currencies are the solution. When someone has collected too many marbles, start using paper clips?

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:59 AM

CANTTAKESKY


My husband says the marble analogy is a bit flawed.

We are assuming that marbles means money, which means material resources.

He says, in reality, marbles means money, which means time. Hours and months and years in people's lives.

He says the 11th marble DOES exist. It is the future time of the debtor. When you pay interest, you are paying the time you already have PLUS the time you don't have yet. You are, in effect, selling portions of your future life into slavery.

The 11th marble, he says, is slavery.

I found that very interesting.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 9:04 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Quote:

CTS: My solution has always been new technology. If government doesn't get in the way of ANYONE coming up with new technology, then anyone can be the new center of gravity, if you will. Evolution is the anti-gravity. The old fade away, and the new take over.
And yet here we are... many technological revolutions later... and 10% of the world wants the latest iPhone, while 50% just want more food. Not seeing how technological revolutions have really solved this problem.



Keyword: IF.
Keyword: ANYONE.

*IF* the government doesn't get in the way of *ANYONE* coming up with new technology....

Which is why you see govt as the solution, and I see govt as the part of the problem.

Right now, all the owners of old technology own new technology. The current centers of gravity want it that way, and they use govt to keep it that way.

If you look at 19th century America, there were a lot of NEW millionaires, money changing hands from the old money in Europe to the new money of inventors. That is as close as we've gotten to my evolution model.



-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 9:38 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


In 19th century America, there were a lot of very poor people. Days of robber barons, remember? Not a great time to be a native American, or a farmer or factory worker. And a lot of very serious economic depressions. Again, not seeing much of a solution there.

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 9:48 AM

ANTHONYT

Freedom is Important because People are Important


Quote:

Originally posted by canttakesky:
My husband says the marble analogy is a bit flawed.

We are assuming that marbles means money, which means material resources.

He says, in reality, marbles means money, which means time. Hours and months and years in people's lives.

He says the 11th marble DOES exist. It is the future time of the debtor. When you pay interest, you are paying the time you already have PLUS the time you don't have yet. You are, in effect, selling portions of your future life into slavery.

The 11th marble, he says, is slavery.

I found that very interesting.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)



Hello,

That is an interesting interpretation, but I'm not sure the leap into slavery is justifiable.

If you let me have your car if I promise to drive you to the doctor on Tuescay, I would be making myself a slave under this interpretation. (Trading my future time for a valuable.)

Indeed, any time you promise to do anything for anybody in the future, you would be a slave under that interpretation.

While I like the Time is Money analogy, I don't think the Time is Slavery analogy works very well. In order to survive, we all must assign a portion of our tomorrows to the business of meeting our survival needs.

--Anthony



_______________________________________________

"In every war, the state enacts a tax of freedom upon the citizenry. The unspoken promise is that the tax shall be revoked at war's end. Endless war holds no such promise. Hence, Eternal War is Eternal Slavery." --Admiral Robert J. Henner


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Saturday, November 12, 2011 10:22 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
In 19th century America, there were a lot of very poor people. Days of robber barons, remember? Not a great time to be a native American, or a farmer or factory worker. And a lot of very serious economic depressions. Again, not seeing much of a solution there.

You're just a pessimist.

There were a lot LESS poor people than before.

America was the first time that kind of window opened up for anyone to invent new technology. It closed very quickly again after that. But in that window, a lot was accomplished. It allowed the emergence of a middle class. Pretty significant new development in economic history, I'd say. No it didn't do enough, but I believe it could have had it had more time.


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 10:28 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by AnthonyT:
Indeed, any time you promise to do anything for anybody in the future, you would be a slave under that interpretation....While I like the Time is Money analogy, I don't think the Time is Slavery analogy works very well.

That is because "slavery" is an extreme word that includes not only loss of ownership of our time, but loss of ownership of our will.

We need another word for losing ownership of small portions of our time/life, without losing all of our will. Like a mini- or quasi- or pseudo- slavery. Some people just call it employment, but that word is too culturally acceptable to drive home the point that there is little difference between a lifetime of debt and indentured servitude.

In other words, if you sell enough hours in your future life, you become a slave. I don't have an adequate word for selling small portions of your future life. Mini-slave? Hehe.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 10:43 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Quote:

There were a lot LESS poor people than before.
Got any data to back that up? Because the era that you refer to includes slavery, the Civil War, a lot of dead and displaced Indians, the railyway boom (which BTW was mostly a bubble, like the housing bubble today), robber barons, the Irish potato famine leading to a lot of destitute immigrants, and several really nasty depressions.

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 11:32 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Got any data to back that up? Because the era that you refer to includes slavery, the Civil War, a lot of dead and displaced Indians, the railyway boom (which BTW was mostly a bubble, like the housing bubble today), robber barons, the Irish potato famine leading to a lot of destitute immigrants, and several really nasty depressions.

All right. Let me hunt something down. First, I need to specify the time period I'm talking about. Etc.

But it's not like you couldn't come up with a list like that for EVERY century.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 4:37 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Just found this interesting article. Felt like it belongs on this thread.

http://www.businessinsider.com/this-28-year-old-is-making-sure-credit-
cards-wont-exist-in-the-next-few-years-2011-11


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 7:46 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Got any data to back that up?

OK, I'm back. First a caveat. I realize the "data" on poverty and standard of living vis a vis the first and second industrial revolutions are highly controversial amongst economists and historians. Datawise, we can argue forever, like global warming. So, what I would like to focus on instead are broader trends than specific "data."

I will quote some "data" or "observations" which you will accuse me of cherry-picking. Let me just say this up front. Yes, I will be quoting selectively to make my point. It does NOT mean what I omitted didn't happen or is being ignored. It only means that despite knowing there is a larger controversial picture, I want to underscore and spotlight certain trends I find significant.

Rough overview of Western economy.

Medieval times: Nobility owned everything. The rest were peasants in abject poverty, with a very small percentage comprising the "bourgeoisie" of merchants and educated professionals. Very little, if not impossible, vertical mobility.

First industrial revolution: After centuries and centuries of intractable monopoly of wealth by the nobility, wealth began to change hands into the bourgeoisie. Peasants/proletariat are still screwed--just how screwed they are is debatable. Poverty image changes from rural poor to urban poor. Growth spurts come with severe depressions. BUT, overall GDP shoots up and standard of living *begins* to improve for increasing numbers of people, but not percentages of people (because of a population explosion). Vertical mobility improves from impossible to improbable.

Quote:

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Industrial_Revolution

In the two centuries following 1800, the world's average per capita income increased over 10-fold, while the world's population increased over 6-fold.[2] In the words of Nobel Prize winner Robert E. Lucas, Jr., "For the first time in history, the living standards of the masses of ordinary people have begun to undergo sustained growth ... Nothing remotely like this economic behavior has happened before".



Sidestepping the debate mines, I want to focus on the overall result of improved living conditions for increasing numbers of people, contrasted with those throughout most of human history. No one will dispute those better standards can be credited in part to industrialization.

Quote:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/IndustrialRevolutionandtheStandardo
fLiving.html


The ideological underpinnings of the debate eventually faded, probably because, as T. S. Ashton pointed out in 1948, the industrial revolution meant the difference between the grinding poverty that had characterized most of human history and the affluence of the modern industrialized nations. No economist today seriously disputes the fact that the industrial revolution began the transformation that has led to extraordinarily high (compared with the rest of human history) living standards for ordinary people throughout the market industrial economies.

The standard-of-living debate today is not about whether the industrial revolution made people better off, but about when. The pessimists claim no marked improvement in standards of living until the 1840s or 1850s. Most optimists, by contrast, believe that living standards were rising by the 1810s or 1820s, or even earlier.... (snip)

What does “standard of living” mean? Economic historians would like it to mean happiness. But the impossibility of measuring happiness forces them to equate the standard of living with monetary measures such as real wages or real income. “Real income” is usually defined as money income adjusted for the cost of living, but not for effects of things such as health, longevity, unemployment, pollution, the condition of women and children, urban crowding, and the amount of leisure time. Although some new indexes attempt to capture the various dimensions of well-being, for most practical purposes real income per person remains the most telling indicator.

According to estimates by economist N. F. R. Crafts, British income per person (in 1970 U.S. dollars) rose from about $400 in 1760 to $430 in 1800, to $500 in 1830, and then jumped to $800 in 1860. (For many centuries before the industrial revolution, in contrast, periods of falling income offset periods of rising income.) Crafts’s estimates indicate slow growth lasting from 1760 to 1830 followed by higher growth beginning sometime between 1830 and 1860. For this doubling of real income per person between 1760 and 1860 not to have made the lowest-income people better off, the share of income going to the lowest 65 percent of the population would have had to fall by half for them to be worse off after all that growth. It did not. In 1760, the lowest 65 percent received about 29 percent of total income in Britain; in 1860, their share was down only four percentage points to 25 percent. So the lowest 65 percent were substantially better off, with an increase in average real income of more than 70 percent.

Most economic historians agree that the distribution of income became more unequal between 1790 and 1840. Moreover, if we add the effects of unemployment, poor harvests, war, pollution, urban crowding, and other social ills, the modest rise in average income could well have been accompanied by a fall in the standard of living of the working classes...(snip)...In other words, the net effect of the industrial revolution was strongly positive but was largely offset by the negative effects of rapid population growth.



Second Industrial Revolution/Gilded Age, c. 1865 - 1913. This is the unregulated technology window to which I was referring, where I see the closest thing to anti-gravity. I realize you are snickering because of 2 severe depressions, the emergence of the mother of money gravity called trusts and mergers, blah blah blah.

BUT, it finally breaks the monopoly of wealth held by European nobility. Wealth *moves* from Europe to America. There is a larger percentage of the middle class (members of which gave championed the Progressive Era later). The urban poverty problem is exacerbated, and the poor are just as screwed as ever. And yes, two depressions. Vertical mobility improves from improbable to actually possible (everyone hoped to be the next Andrew Carnegie).

An eyeball look at the GDP will show technology's influence on the undisputed rise of GDP in America. Contrast this to western Europe (say as a rough control group) which participated in the industrial revolution as well, but was not the first source of new technology.

Quote:


https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past
_GDP_%28PPP%29


1870 GDP
western Europe: 367,466
America: 98,374

1913 GDP
western Europe: 902,210
America: 517,383



Quote:

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Second_Industrial_Revol
ution


The period from 1870 to 1890 saw the greatest increase in economic growth in such a short period as ever in history. Living standards improved significantly in the newly industrialized countries as the prices of goods fell dramatically due to the increases in productivity. This caused unemployment and great upheavals in commerce and industry, with many laborers being displaced by machines and many factories, ships and other forms of fixed capital becoming obsolete in a very short time span.[21]

...
Crop failures no longer resulted in starvation in areas served by railroads and inland waterways.[21]

...
The tremendous growth in productivity, transportation networks, industrial production and agricultural output lowered the prices of almost all goods. This led to many business failures and periods that were called depressions that occurred as the world economy actually grew.

...
The wide-ranging social impact of both revolutions included the remaking of the working class as new technologies appeared; the creation of a larger, increasingly professional, middle class; the decline of child labor; and the dramatic growth of a consumer-based, material culture.



The following is about Arkansas, but it describes *broad* trends that applies to the rest of the country as well.

Quote:

http://encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entry
ID=402


The state’s changing economy led to significant upheaval for the society and culture of Arkansans. Expanding economic activities produced new employment opportunities and began shifting the basic character of work in the state. In 1880, only seventeen percent of all workers in the state worked at jobs other than farming. Agriculture clearly dominated the labor market. By 1900, non-farm workers made up almost thirty percent of all workers. The move established a trend that continued unabated in the next century. The new jobs had an immediate impact on workers’ lifestyles. Wages got better. Even the average job in the timber industry, which offered the lowest wages of any of the new industries, provided an income three to four times what the typical farmer could expect. In terms of earning power, railroad workers were the elite of the new labor force, at least in part because many had joined unions such as the Knights of Labor in the 1870s and then the Americana Federation of Labor in the 1880s and 1890s. The new jobs gave workers new prosperity and a share of the material wealth being produced by the national economy.



This post is getting too long. I'm sum up and end with the last quotation.

Yes, horrible things happened poor people during the Gilded Age. I won't argue that. But in the context of most of human history, it accomplished 3 extraordinary things.

1. Wealth changed hands, which, up to that time, never happened.
2. It created a middle class that the world had never seen before.
3. Despite the continued concentration of wealth in the hands of the few, and the continued oppression of the poor, living conditions in industrialized countries did eventually improve for the vast majority of the population.

Quote:

http://www.shmoop.com/gilded-age/

It was, as Dickens might have said, the best of times and the worst of times.

But even that Dickensian understanding of the Gilded Age isn't quite right. It's not enough to say that the Gilded Age was a time of high highs and low lows; the highs and lows were actually often deeply intertwined parts of the exact same developments. In other words, the highs often were the lows, and vice versa. In the Gilded Age, every dark cloud had its silver lining… and every silver lining had its dark cloud. For more than a hundred years, critics have been ripping the business strategies that allowed big industrialists to build powerful monopolies—but those much-maligned monopolies brought desperately needed order to America's immature economic system. Many have also long resented the immense fortunes of personal wealth that a handful of big businessmen were able to acquire—but that wealth paid for a huge surge in philanthropy, building hundreds of libraries, schools, museums, and other public facilities still enjoyed by the American people even today. Reformers decried the way urban politicians turned corruption into a way of life—but those same crooked politicians also provided vital services to working-class and immigrant neighborhoods.

The Gilded Age was a dynamic age of incredible economic opportunity, just as it was a harsh era of incredible economic exploitation. Any version of this tale that includes only the exploitation but not the dynamism—or vice versa—is missing half the story.



I am not saying this is my IDEAL anti-money-gravity. But it is the closest thing to my ideal in actual history. Like all evolution, it takes time. It is messy. It is cruel even. But I believe in the end, evolution as anti-gravity will be more stable than the more expedient govt-as-anti-gravity.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:34 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


I wish I could remember the name of the economics book I read a long time ago, but a lot of the supposed rise in the standard of living was correctly ascribed to technology. Basically what the author said was that if you were an extremely powerful African chieftain, for all your wealth and for all you power over the lives of multitudes, you wouldn't have an iron grate with a coal fire, iron not being refined and forged, and coal not being mined in that time and place and technology.

The other thing I would ascribe it to is that people were and are tapping into stored energies like coal and later oil. It multiplies productivity such that a worker can produce far more than human or animal labor alone could produce. Thus, they can produce enough for their survival while the large excess goes to benefit a very few. Or, as I also said elsewhere, capitalism survives by sucking resources into the bottom.

As far as I can see, that doesn't make capitalism good or necessary, it just makes it wasteful and unsustainable.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 3:21 AM

DREAMTROVE


Quote:

Originally posted by canttakesky:

It's so stupid we DESERVE our impending doom.



Lol. This cracked me up. But so true.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 3:32 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
As far as I can see, that doesn't make capitalism good or necessary, it just makes it wasteful and unsustainable.

Nah, I don't think it is good or necessary.

I just don't think it is evil, or necessarily evil.

I think it is a neutral tool which CAN be used for good as well as for evil, and sometimes at the same time (as in the Gilded Age).

ETA: Just to clarify, I wasn't making a case for capitalism, anyway. I was making a case for new technology as an anti-gravity device.

ETA2: I should specify, unregulated development of new technology as an anti-gravity device.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 5:32 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


Well DT, I noticed you brought no evidence to back up your story about how EU is a basket case because of "socialist spending" so I decided to look it up.

The nations with the most socialist spending (the Nordic nations and Germany) are doing quite well. Several of the nations which needed bailouts (Iceland, Spain, and Ireland) were running their governmental budgets in the black, and had in fact been using the surplus to pay DOWN their debt since about 1997, significantly decreasing their public debt burden from about 70% GDP to about 20-30% GDP in that time. They didn't run into trouble UNTIL the debt crisis, when they emptied their treasuries to shore up PRIVATE banks. The UK was running about even ,,, not either in debt or generating a surplus, and their public debt load was more or less stable from about 1997 to 2007.

So your argument is not at all supported by evidence. The primary cause for the financial crisis was the financial sector creating too much funny money. Again.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 5:51 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.


CTS, I think what you are saying is that new technology creates new centers of gravity, and that while money is flowing from one center of gravity to another, at least it is flowing. Right?

First of all, the USA was not the "source" of new technology. All of that work on water-power and the steam engine, and its application to transportation and manufacturing? Mostly England and France. The invention of the programmable water-powered loom: France. (Even hear of saboteurs? They were throwing their sabots into the "new" technology) The self-propelled steam engine, and the steam-powered loom? England.

My sense is that doesn't solve the problem, and doesn't even delay the inevitable bust. When I look at the introduction of new technology (manufacturing) in England, it created a vast underclass of people who were substantially poorer than before: peasants displaced from their small holdings into cities, where they lived (and starved) under bridges and in poorhouses, without even the wherewithal to produce their own food. In other words, the introduction of new technology concentrated wealth more than ever. As an anti-gravity machine, it was a bust.

The saving grace of America was all of that "free" land which created a safety net of a sorts for people unable to find a place in the economic structure to strike out on their own and AT LEAST be able to produce food. In other words, the means of production were more evenly distributed here than elsewhere. I think that is why we never involved in the "year of revolutions" (1848). We were still busy extricating ourselves from an older form of production (slavery).

I think monetarism has been more effective. Governments have been riding monetarism for a long time to delay the inevitable, making money (and allowing private banks to make money) through the creation of debt and "quantitative easing" (ie the equivalent of printing more money!), and that more than anything has delayed the inevitable, as well as making it potentially worse.

Curiously, China is facing the same problem. The introduction of new technology (manufacturing) has created a new class of ultra-wealthy, while itinerant labor and the peasant farmer no longer enjoy the level of support (health care, education, unemployment insurance etc.) that they did in the past. (These are tied to where you are registered; so if you move out of your area of registration to work in a city, you receive no benefits whatsoever, very much like the parish system of charity in Victorian England)

China recognizes that it needs to increase its internal demand in order to keep growing, so they are investing in infrastructure at a crazy rate. However, because of the shadow banking system there are many outstanding loans which can no longer be paid, factory-owners are committing suicide rather than face the illicit lenders.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:08 AM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
CTS, I think what you are saying is that new technology creates new centers of gravity, and that while money is flowing from one center of gravity to another, at least it is flowing. Right?

Yes, because while it is flowing, it weakens the centers.

Quote:

First of all, the USA was not the "source" of new technology. ...Mostly England and France.
You're confusing the first and the second industrial revolutions. The first (18th-early 19th century), yes, mostly England and France. The second (1865 - 1913), mostly America. I am especially interested in the American industrial revolution because it was particularly unfettered by govt. My hypothesis is, the more unregulated new technology is, the bigger the flow of wealth from the old center of gravity to the new one.

Quote:

In other words, the introduction of new technology concentrated wealth more than ever.
I would dispute the "more than ever." But I expected that we would have disagreements on this point.

Also, the period of interest to me is the Second Industrial Revolution in America, rather than the first one in Europe. The first one was new technology mired in millenia of oppression. It didn't have much of a chance for anti-gravity to work. It would be like trying a new anti-gravity machine on Jupiter and saying, "Look it doesn't work." No shit. Let's focus on the anti-gravity trial we did on Mars, shall we?

Anyway, I didn't expect you to agree with me. I just wanted to explain my theory. Maybe it *is* wrong. But I would like to see unfettered development of new technology tried for say, 100 years before giving it up as a bust.

ETA: Oh, and about China? It doesn't fit my model. My model requires that ANYBODY must be free (unimpeded by govt) to come up with new technology. China doesn't meet that criterion. Like I said, there has only been one time in all of history that came close to my model, and that would be America 1865 - 1913. Not Europe. Not China. America in the Gilded Age.

New tech alone is not enough.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 9:43 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


" My model requires that ANYBODY must be free (unimpeded by govt) to come up with new technology."

But, uhm, as was pointed out above, it wasn't Americans who came up with the new technologies. So the Gilded Age doesn't meet your criteria either.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 9:50 AM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.


Posting separately on this point - you see freedom to invent new technologies as a necessary crutch for capitalism, a way out of the dead-end of concentration of wealth. But the freedom to invent new technologies has been around for a long, long, LONG time - since way before capitalism - with the invention of language, the bowl, the baby sling, fire, stone tools, agriculture and so on. Invention can and does exist without capitalism. But according to your ideas, capitalism can't survive without invention.

So, why have capitalism?

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 11:08 AM

MAGONSDAUGHTER


Quote:

Originally posted by SignyM:
Well DT, I noticed you brought no evidence to back up your story about how EU is a basket case because of "socialist spending" so I decided to look it up.

The nations with the most socialist spending (the Nordic nations and Germany) are doing quite well. Several of the nations which needed bailouts (Iceland, Spain, and Ireland) were running their governmental budgets in the black, and had in fact been using the surplus to pay DOWN their debt since about 1997, significantly decreasing their public debt burden from about 70% GDP to about 20-30% GDP in that time. They didn't run into trouble UNTIL the debt crisis, when they emptied their treasuries to shore up PRIVATE banks. The UK was running about even ,,, not either in debt or generating a surplus, and their public debt load was more or less stable from about 1997 to 2007.

So your argument is not at all supported by evidence. The primary cause for the financial crisis was the financial sector creating too much funny money. Again.



I think you are on the money, if you will excuse the expression. There are countries in europe that have been incredibly irresponsible, like Italy, but that is nothing to do with socialism and everything to do with a culture that has scant regard for paying dues like taxes, and big into bribery and corruption. That is why Germany and France are so pooed off with bailing them out.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 11:16 AM

DREAMTROVE


Sig,

It's obvious to a 5th grader. Why would I waste my time debating it here? I have actual stuff to do.

Look again at europe's taxation rate, and their degree of govt. control, corporate-govt. ties and their stack of long term liabilities, not to mention their labor situation. I haven't met a european on either side of the political spectrum who hasn't thought it was a serious problem at any point in the last decade, maybe two.

That's what a ship is, you know - it's not just a keel and a hull and a deck and sails, that's what a ship needs.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 12:02 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
But, uhm, as was pointed out above, it wasn't Americans who came up with the new technologies. So the Gilded Age doesn't meet your criteria either.

It was pointed out wrong. Most of the new technology in the Gilded Age WAS American.

Telephone: American
Telegraph: American
A/C current: American
D/C current: American
Airplane: American
Refrigerator: American
Cars: German
Assembly line for mass production of cars: American
Radio: American (though of course, the Italians want to claim this one)
Steel: British
Mass manufacturing of steel through vertical integration: American (not a technological but a logistical innovation)

Yes, there were a number of significant European inventions. And yes, inventions always piggyback on each other such that some claims for credit are controversial. But it is very clear that MOST of the innovation by which we obtained the final products occurred in America during the Gilded Age.


-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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Sunday, November 13, 2011 12:05 PM

CANTTAKESKY


Quote:

Originally posted by 1kiki:
So, why have capitalism?

Why have a knife?

Cause sometimes, just sometimes, it is useful without hurting anyone.

-----
Never be deceived that the rich will allow you to vote away their wealth. -- Lucy Parsons (1853-1942, labor activist and anarcho-communist)

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