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Healthcare ruling to save billions of dollars

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Sunday, July 29, 2012 02:38
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Tuesday, July 24, 2012 4:37 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


That damn CBO again...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/18977189

Quote:

US auditors say the Supreme Court ruling upholding President Barack Obama's health law will save the government $84bn (£54bn) over 11 years.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says most of the savings come from the Supreme Court's decision that states do not have to expand Medicaid programmes.

The CBO also found millions fewer poor people than it previously anticipated would be covered because of the ruling.

And it said that repealing the law would raise the deficit by over $100bn.

The law's combined revenue increases and spending cuts are larger than the cost of expanding coverage, according to the CBO's independent analysts.


The Supreme Court decision in June said that states do not have to broaden Medicaid, a government-sponsored health programme for the poor, as set down in the 2010 law.

Although the federal government would pick up the initial cost of that expansion, many states would have to open Medicaid to low-income childless adults for the first time.

Expected opt-outs by conservative-led states such as Texas, Florida and South Carolina are projected to decrease the cost of the expansion over the next 10 years.

However, the CBO also estimates about six million fewer people will be covered by Medicaid by 2022 because of the get-out clause.

Republicans, including presidential candidate Mitt Romney, have warned the law will bloat deficits by trillions of dollars, and they are campaigning for its repeal.

But CBO director Douglas Elmendorf said in a letter to Republican House Speaker John Boehner that overturning the law would actually inflate the deficit by $109bn over a decade.


The office also now projects 30 million people will be uninsured by 2022, up from its previous estimate of 27 million people.

The CBO estimates the number of uninsured in the US is now about 53 million and would grow to 60 million in a decade if the law was repealed.


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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 2:30 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Not to come off as fanatically cynical here, but it sounds to me like they're talking about "peanuts" either way the pendulum swings.

Keep it and we get 84 billion (that won't pay down the deficit, but will be used to buy something else we can't afford anyway). Get rid of it and we add 109 billion to the deficit (over 10 years).

Working for 8 dollars an hour part time, I can surely appreciate the value of a billion dollars. But when the deficit is as insane as it is today, this just seems to me as if we're discussing how badly the cute little Corgie behaves for shitting on the carpet when we've got an African Elephant in the corner taking 3 shits daily that are are twice the size of the dog.........

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 3:32 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...


Well, given the Supremes snuk in that little clause about the states being able to opt out of the Medicaid provision, and most of the assholes WILL, I'm not sure how that figures into the equation:
Quote:

The Congressional Budget Office is out with its analysis of how the Supreme Court decision will impact the Affordable Care Act’s budget. The big ticket takeaway is this: The non-partisan scorekeeper estimates that 3 million people fewer people will gain coverage due to states opting out of the Medicaid expansion, resulting in $84 billion less in federal spending.

Let’s break down those numbers a bit. The Congressional Budget Office does not list out which states could pass up the Medicaid expansion. But it does predict that “some states will probably forgo the expansion entirely.”

The CBO then estimates that for every person who does not enroll in Medicaid because of that, and goes uninsured, the federal government saves $6,000 in spending by 2022. For the average person who does not enroll in Medicaid, but instead gets subsidized coverage from the health insurance exchange, the federal government spends $9,000 – $3,000 more than they would have had those individuals been in Medicaid.

“With about 6 million fewer people being covered by Medicaid but only
about 3 million more people receiving subsidies through the exchanges
and about 3 million more people being uninsured…the projected decrease in total federal spending on Medicaid is larger than the anticipated increase in total exchange subsidies,” the CBO concludes.

For those who want to see that in graph form, the CBO has got you covered: http://blogs-images.forbes.com/aroy/files/2012/07/CBO-2012-07-24-Cover
age-Estimates.pdf


If anything, this report suggests that the CBO is taking the threats of states not to participate very, very seriously. It only expects that only a third of those eligible for the Medicaid expansion will live in states that participate in the program the first year its available. Another third will live in states that delay by more than a year. That would fall in line with the history of states enrolling in Medicaid: When the program launched in 1966, just six states initially participated.

In making their decisions, states will face different incentives depending on their overall
budgetary situation,” the CBO writes, after consulting with numerous state officials. Other factors, like politics, could matter too. As the CBO notes, “States often have different preferences regarding their policies even when facing the same incentives.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/07/24/cbo-is-ta
king-the-states-threatening-to-opt-out-of-the-medicaid-expansion-very-seriously/?print=1




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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 3:40 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


It still seems to me Niki that we're talking about wooden nickles either way....


Back when I was GWB's biggest detractor here, he was spending 4-5 times in a month on millitary spending than we're talking about "saving" or "wasting" over a 10 year period.

This conversation, is essentially, a wasted use of bandwidth to even discuss if the only reason is 8 billion this way or 10 billion that way per year over the next ten years.... which it seems to me to be....

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 4:15 AM

JONGSSTRAW


2008 candidate Obama attacked George Bush for having an annual budget deficit of $300 billion. Obama called that reckless and un-patriotic. Obama's racked up over $1 trillion dollar deficits every year since he took office, so I guess that must, by his own definition, make Obama at least 3 times more reckless and treasonous than Bush was.

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 11:04 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Get rid of it and we add 109 billion to the deficit (over 10 years).

Deficit is by definition over 1 year, so times that by 10 to get $1.1 trillion - more like what it would cost over 10 years to repeal.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 11:08 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
2008 candidate Obama attacked George Bush for having an annual budget deficit of $300 billion. Obama called that reckless and un-patriotic. Obama's racked up over $1 trillion dollar deficits every year since he took office, so I guess that must, by his own definition, make Obama at least 3 times more reckless and treasonous than Bush was.



Until you reason that a lot of the things that have driven the deficit over the past few years - Bush's tax cuts, economic downturn, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - were all legacies of the Bush presidency, that Obama inherited.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Wednesday, July 25, 2012 11:24 AM

STORYMARK


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
2008 candidate Obama attacked George Bush for having an annual budget deficit of $300 billion. Obama called that reckless and un-patriotic. Obama's racked up over $1 trillion dollar deficits every year since he took office, so I guess that must, by his own definition, make Obama at least 3 times more reckless and treasonous than Bush was.



Until you reason ....b]



Good luck with that.


Note to anyone - Please pity the poor, poor wittle Rappyboy. He's feeling put upon lately, what with all those facts disagreeing with what he believes.

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Thursday, July 26, 2012 2:38 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

Get rid of it and we add 109 billion to the deficit (over 10 years).

Deficit is by definition over 1 year, so times that by 10 to get $1.1 trillion - more like what it would cost over 10 years to repeal.



"But CBO director Douglas Elmendorf said in a letter to Republican House Speaker John Boehner that overturning the law would actually inflate the deficit by $109bn over a decade."

That's not how I read it.... It sounds to me like we'll save 84 billion over 10 years one way or lose 109 billion over ten years the other way.

I may be wrong here, but I need more than your post to make me change my stance. When they say "over a decade" it sounds to me that it's "over a decade". I'll agree that the Government makes it a point to NEVER say what they actually mean to say though, so you may be right.


Though that would make this matter 10 times more important than it is today, it would still be little more than 2 ounces in the 5 gallon bucket.....



Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:
Quote:

Originally posted by Jongsstraw:
2008 candidate Obama attacked George Bush for having an annual budget deficit of $300 billion. Obama called that reckless and un-patriotic. Obama's racked up over $1 trillion dollar deficits every year since he took office, so I guess that must, by his own definition, make Obama at least 3 times more reckless and treasonous than Bush was.



Until you reason that a lot of the things that have driven the deficit over the past few years - Bush's tax cuts, economic downturn, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - were all legacies of the Bush presidency, that Obama inherited.

It's not personal. It's just war.




Bushes Tax cuts were actually one of the best things that could have happened to many of us. Since a majority of us have never or likely never will reach the 25% bracket, it's sure nice that a majority of us under that bracket only had to pay 10% taxes on a majority of our income instead of 15% taxes after the deductions.

Also, unemployment insurance was extended to nearly 2 years well before Obama got into office, and for several years almost immediately after GWB was president it was extended to 52 months.



Personally, between the tax cuts, and the unemployment payments, my personal tax/medicare/SS payments my entire life up until now have been mitigated.

I don't feel screwed by the government at all in that regard.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Thursday, July 26, 2012 2:49 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

"But CBO director Douglas Elmendorf said in a letter to Republican House Speaker John Boehner that overturning the law would actually inflate the deficit by $109bn over a decade."


Ok fair point, I missed that line. But deficit is still just the amount that is added to the debt in one year though, so I guess that's saying something like: "by 2022 the a repeal of Obamacare would be costing $109bn every year..." So it's still costing a significant amount every year, but that amount would probably only climb to $109bn by 2022.

Quote:

Bushes Tax cuts were actually one of the best things that could have happened to many of us. Since a majority of us have never or likely never will reach the 25% bracket, it's sure nice that a majority of us under that bracket only had to pay 10% taxes on a majority of our income instead of 15% taxes after the deductions.

Also, unemployment insurance was extended to nearly 2 years well before Obama got into office, and for several years almost immediately after GWB was president it was extended to 52 months.



Personally, between the tax cuts, and the unemployment payments, my personal tax/medicare/SS payments my entire life up until now have been mitigated.

I don't feel screwed by the government at all in that regard.


Thanks for the perspective.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, July 26, 2012 3:51 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by kpo:

Ok fair point, I missed that line. But deficit is still just the amount that is added to the debt in one year though, so I guess that's saying something like: "by 2022 the a repeal of Obamacare would be costing $109bn every year..." So it's still costing a significant amount every year, but that amount would probably only climb to $109bn by 2022.



I understand what you're saying kpo. Please don't think that I'm purposefully being obtuse here.

I just think that when it comes to Government PR and Journalistic Liberty, there is no International Standard we can go by to blindly believe that anything is the truth. (And as much as I might HATE that in these situations, I can't fight against it because I love freedom of speech).

What I'm saying is just because one Journalist with integrity might very well go by your definition of deficit and how it is portrayed, another might go the other way. In the end, it's on the "end user" to do the final research for themselves and make their own conclusions.

To me, this article seemed to say that we'd save 84 billion over 10 years, but we'd only lose 109 billion over 10 years by fighting it today.

Either way, I feel it's a wash.....


I don't know if anything any of them say is true, but I can just comment that I feel this was an extremely poorly written article.




Quote:

Bushes Tax cuts were actually one of the best things that could have happened to many of us. Since a majority of us have never or likely never will reach the 25% bracket, it's sure nice that a majority of us under that bracket only had to pay 10% taxes on a majority of our income instead of 15% taxes after the deductions.

Also, unemployment insurance was extended to nearly 2 years well before Obama got into office, and for several years almost immediately after GWB was president it was extended to 52 months.



Personally, between the tax cuts, and the unemployment payments, my personal tax/medicare/SS payments my entire life up until now have been mitigated.

I don't feel screwed by the government at all in that regard.


Thanks for the perspective.


Thank you for thanking me. I'm honestly interested in you commenting further about it.

~6

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Thursday, July 26, 2012 7:59 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Jack, I thought you were a big proponent of Six Sigma. You know, identifying the problem areas systematically, methodically, and fixing them one at a time instead of trying to reinvent the wheel entirely.

Saving $84bn/yr or costing 109bn/yr isn't small potatoes, really. That's a $200bn/yr swing, which is money we have to borrow and pay interest on.

I have to question the motives and agenda of anyone who claims that their biggest issue with the government is the out-of-control spending, who then turns around and poo-poos an honest effort to curb that spending, simply because they don't like who's in charge this week.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero


"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll

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Thursday, July 26, 2012 8:02 AM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


If they're saying that it's going to impact "the deficit" by $109bn by 2022, that means it's going to ramp up until it hits $109bn PER YEAR by then. Say it starts at $18bn next year (hypothetically speaking), then $24bn the year after, etc., finally topping $109bn in 2022 or whatever the stated target year was. When you add up all those years cumulatively, you start getting closer to a trillion bucks before it's all said and done, or half a trillion anyway.

If they mean that the CUMULATIVE total would be $109bn by the target year, they should say the impact to THE NATIONAL DEBT would be that much by that date, not the impact to the deficit.

Words matter.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero


"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll

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Friday, July 27, 2012 3:36 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.


Quote:

To me, this article seemed to say that we'd save 84 billion over 10 years, but we'd only lose 109 billion over 10 years by fighting it today.

As Kwicko was saying, words mean what they mean. Deficit means how much is added to the debt in a single year. Debt and deficit are commonly confused, even by journalists on occasion - but since the line in the article was a direct quote from the CBO, I think we can assume that the words were chosen correctly. In which case yes, we're looking at much more than $109bn over 10 years.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, July 27, 2012 3:00 PM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
Jack, I thought you were a big proponent of Six Sigma. You know, identifying the problem areas systematically, methodically, and fixing them one at a time instead of trying to reinvent the wheel entirely.

Saving $84bn/yr or costing 109bn/yr isn't small potatoes, really. That's a $200bn/yr swing, which is money we have to borrow and pay interest on.

I have to question the motives and agenda of anyone who claims that their biggest issue with the government is the out-of-control spending, who then turns around and poo-poos an honest effort to curb that spending, simply because they don't like who's in charge this week.



"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero


"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll




My praise of SixSigma is really toung-n-cheek.

The only areas it's ever used in is the private sector, and millions of Americans have had their livelyhood's axed because of it.

SixSigma has NEVER been used in a government job. (Which is the place that it most definitely be used because we all pay for their needless waste of funds daily).



If this is a yearly thing and not "over 10 years" I agree it's more dramatic. Still.... If we've tripled the spending to the National Debt in the last 4 years, what's saying we won't have tripled it again by 2016 and tripled it again by 2020, and then be halfway on our way to tripling it again in 2022 (which would be 10 years later, right).

At that point, our deficit spending per year would be somewhere around 4 Trillion Per year. Sorry, but 109 Billion Per year given those stats still seems like small potatoes to me.

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Friday, July 27, 2012 4:21 PM

KWICKO

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." -- William Casey, Reagan's presidential campaign manager & CIA Director (from first staff meeting in 1981)


Kinda funny, still - you start a thread about all the little "green" stuff you're doing, but then decry any efforts to do "little stuff" to cut deficits.


I thought cutting was supposed to be a good thing in this regard. Apparently you're an all-or-nothing type when it comes to spending cuts.

I'm not a big believer in Big Solutions™ to problems. In my experience, if you're facing a big problem, a hundred 1-percent solutions are more effective than a single 100-percent solution, because if one of the small ones fails, you still have 99 chances to succeed.




"I supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 and intellegence [sic] had very little to do with that decision." - Hero


"The groin cup and throat protector have about as much ballistic protection as the kneepads I wear when I'm doing a job that requires me to be on my knees." - Troll

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Sunday, July 29, 2012 2:34 AM

6IXSTRINGJACK


Quote:

Originally posted by Kwicko:
Kinda funny, still - you start a thread about all the little "green" stuff you're doing, but then decry any efforts to do "little stuff" to cut deficits.


I thought cutting was supposed to be a good thing in this regard. Apparently you're an all-or-nothing type when it comes to spending cuts.

I'm not a big believer in Big Solutions™ to problems. In my experience, if you're facing a big problem, a hundred 1-percent solutions are more effective than a single 100-percent solution, because if one of the small ones fails, you still have 99 chances to succeed.



Touche...

Don't misunderstand me Kwick, I'm not decrying any legitimate efforts at cutting spending, even if it is considered a pittance compared to the big picture. Had I balked at even the smallest way to save money on the side when I had some really large ways of doing it I'd never be where I'm at today..

Forgive me for being misleading here. It's not about the money. It's about my complete lack of faith in Government run health care.

My uncle died recently, riddled with cancer that made it all the way up to his brain. He was 6 feet tall and weighed just over 100lbs when he spent his last 2 days eyes rolled back in his head shitting himself.

3 months earlier, he seemed as healthy as he ever did. The only reason he went to the Cook County hospital was because he was pissing blood in his urine.

Instead of taking the time/money to do a full body scan, they focused only on his bladder. They found cancer and removed his bladder and put in a prosthetic one. Instead of getting better, he got worse. When they finally did a full body scan, they found cancer EVERYWHERE!


I hate to say it, but as cold as it sounds, my Dad is right about the situation.


Had they just done the full body scan they would have realized that he'd already been stage 4 cancer in multiple areas of his body and they could have just cut him a check for 25 grand and said, you've got 6 months to live, go to Disneyland.

Instead, they put him through an operation that made the last 3 months of his life utter agony and ended up costing the tax-payers over 300k in medical expenses.


He had a Masters in Journalism. Before everyone dropped their newspaper subscriptions he was a well paid full time journalist with full health benefits. He spent the last 5 years of his life living in the same basement at his mothers that I did before I turned my life around.

As big a supporter of Obama as he was in 2008, by 2010 he was disgusted at being suckered yet again....

"A government is a body of people, usually notably ungoverned." ~Shepherd Book

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Sunday, July 29, 2012 2:38 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!



Complete propaganda and spin going on here. The CBO only cranks out results from the #'s given, and the 1.6 trillion dollar costs of this fiasco will only climb higher and higher over time.


" We're all just folk. " - Mal

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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