The best and worst of the predictions thread 2012 by kpo

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The best and worst of the predictions thread 2012

POSTED BY: KPO
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 19, 2013 13:16
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Sunday, May 12, 2013 6:52 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

An overdue roundup of the predictions thread, and a look at how people did

http://beta.fireflyfans.net/mthread.aspx?tid=51008

Starting with a countdown of the worst predictions:

8. Hero shows polls ‘skepticism’:

"It's worse then you think. The polls are still over sampling democrats. That means the shift is far, far more dire then you think." -- Hero

This prediction perfectly sums up for me the attitude of a lot of the people on the right towards the polling data that was right in front of them. Nate Silver’s forecasts, as we know, completely nailed it.

7. kpo jumps the gun:

"If I were a betting man I'd put money on him (Rick Perry) as next president." -- kpo

Oops. Trying to look back and figure out what possessed me here, I think I saw Perry as someone who could tell the story of having a low-tax and pretty successful economic record as governor of Texas (not a necessarily true story, but sell-able). What happened next was a series of gaffes, and poor debate performances, that killed his campaign, and left me looking fairly stupid. Don’t make presidential bets on a candidate until you’ve seen them in action, folks!

6. Cavetroll, on the surprise drop to 7.8% of the unemployment rate, a month before the election:

"I'm sure in a month or so, quietly, on a Friday afternoon, the numbers will be adjusted to their actual point." -- Cavetroll

A throwaway conspiracy theory from Cavetroll. Nice and specific, but specifically wrong. The 7.8% figure hasn’t changed.

5. On Fast & Furious:

“Fast and Furious documents are held back till after the election. Independent ivestigation to OBama's role in it. Eric Holder will be fired and sent to jail. Rumors of impeachment if Obama is elected.” – Catpirate

I decided to just pick one of Catpirate’s terrible predictions, that nonetheless was wrong on several counts. Eric Holder was completely cleared, and the WH was found to have had no involvement.

4. Auraptor, on the US economy's surprise contraction in the fourth quarter of 2012:

"And so it begins." -- Auraptor

I personally love this prediction. Economists pointed to a sharp drop in defense spending as an explanation of the weak growth in this quarter. Auraptor however saw something different, apparently seeing the small -0.1% contraction (which was later revised upwards to +0.4% growth) as the beginning of some kind of economic catastrophe... The months since have seen solid growth (2.5% Q1 2013) and a steady fall in the unemployment numbers.

3. Wulfenstar on Obamacare...

'Obamacare is finished' -- Wulfenstar

Honourable mention must also got to Auraptor and Whozit, who made their own versions of this erroneous prediction. All were confident it would be ruled unconstitutional or repealed after the November elections. All were confidently wrong.

2. Hero's piece of election day swing-state commentary:

"Oh Obama, my old friend. Have you not heard the old Kilingon proverb that revenge is a dish that is best served cold? It is very cold...in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and possibly Pennsylvania if turnout is low in Philadelphia." -- Hero

Hero predicts dire trouble for Obama in five key swing-states… all of which go comfortably for Obama. Poetry.

1. Auraptor on Romney and Gingrich, and 2012:

"Pretty sure either would beat Obama, by double digits." -- Auraptor

Ooh, ouch. Not even close. Honorable mention must go to 6ixStringJack, Whozit, Cavetroll, Paul Ryan etc., who also all confidently predicted an Obama loss. But Auraptor pips his fellow conservatives to the honour of worst prediction by exceeding them in bullish, emphatic wrongness. He followed up election day defeat by making another, bitter prediction about an exodus of conservative business leaders from the country... also wrong, but not quite worthy of the list.

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Sunday, May 12, 2013 7:10 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Already gave prize for FIRST laugh of the day, but those may be the BEST. Not that any of them are surprising; how often do our righties make outrageous statements like that (which are promptly forgotten when they prove to be just that outrageous)...like, almost daily?

But yes, poetry; it just goes to show exactly HOW far down their heads are buried in the sand, sadly. What SHOULD be surprising is that, having believed things like that and seeing them SO not come true, they don't question any of their other beliefs. But it will never happen...

That's okay, there's Benghazi now, they're already making outrageous predictions on that, and I'm sure they'll find more occasions to "guarantee" disaster for the Dems as time goes on. They always do.

Thoroughly enjoyable post, KPO, many thanx!

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Sunday, May 12, 2013 8:09 AM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

We're in May, and you're crowing about " predictions" made after the 4th quarter 2012 growth report ?

Slow your roll there, kpo.

As for my Jan 12, 2012 off the cuff remark about Romney or Gingrich, bfd. Romney did end up as the GOP nominee, and only ran a slightly better campaign than McCain. Gingrich was a great disappointment, but of course, these were well before the primaries had even started.

As for Romney, it's generally accepted by those on the Right that after his first debate beat down of Obama, he called off the dogs, and played not to lose, instead of goign for the knock out punch. Pussy move, imo. Cost him the election. Oh well.

Oh,and Niki... as for Benghazi, the cows are already out of the barn. No need to make any further predictions.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Monday, May 13, 2013 10:02 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
We're in May, and you're crowing about " predictions" made after the 4th quarter 2012 growth report ?

Slow your roll there, kpo.

At this stage I'd say it's safe to say your imaginary economic apocalypse has been averted. So yes I'm calling it.

Quote:
As for my Jan 12, 2012 off the cuff remark about Romney or Gingrich, bfd.

Don't talk yourself down, man. Your prediction was brash and bold and very, very far from the mark. Remember this was THE big political question of 2012, and no one made a prediction that was more wrong than you did. Yes it was some time before November, but see that Story made a prediction at about the same time as you that pretty much nailed it: "Mitt Romney will be the GOP's John Kerry."

Auraptor you've earned this honour. Your wrongness is a rare gift.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, May 14, 2013 2:54 AM

MAGONSDAUGHTER

so what are the best then?

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Tuesday, May 14, 2013 12:07 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

In retrospect I wish I'd included this, instead of the Josh Jordan one:

"It's worse then you think. The polls are still over sampling democrats. That means the shift is far, far more dire then you think." -- Hero

I didn't have to go outside the RWED to find right-wing head-in-sand denialism about the polls.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, May 14, 2013 12:44 PM

STORYMARK

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:

We're in May, and you're crowing about " predictions" made after the 4th quarter 2012 growth report ?

Slow your roll there, kpo.

As for my Jan 12, 2012 off the cuff remark about Romney or Gingrich, bfd. Romney did end up as the GOP nominee, and only ran a slightly better campaign than McCain. Gingrich was a great disappointment, but of course, these were well before the primaries had even started.

As for Romney, it's generally accepted by those on the Right that after his first debate beat down of Obama, he called off the dogs, and played not to lose, instead of goign for the knock out punch. Pussy move, imo. Cost him the election. Oh well.

Look at the poor boy flail, and do everything he can to not admit he was WAY FUCKING WRONG.

"Off the cuff..." Shit, like you didn't stick to your prediction till the bitter end. You pansy.

Quote:
Oh,and Niki... as for Benghazi, the cows are already out of the barn. No need to make any further predictions.

Yes, the cows are out, and have turned out to be.... just cows, nothing more. Not even cows under a cover-up.

But yes, you best stop making predictions. Unless you'd like to provide us with more comedy. Its all you;re really good for anyway.

Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.

"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013 12:44 PM

MAGONSDAUGHTER

still waiting for the best

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013 12:54 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Quote:
Yes, the cows are out, and have turned out to be.... just cows, nothing more. Not even cows under a cover-up

Hey Storybook...

Moo!

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/334777187171434496/photo/1

* Nuland worries that members of Congress might "beat the State Dept for not paying attention" to CIA warnings about Benghazi.
5:54 PM - 15 May 2013

http://twitchy.com/2013/05/15/is-this-the-key-page-in-the-newly-releas
ed-benghazi-emails/

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 2:56 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

KPO, what's funny to me is, does Rap think predictions don't count after a certain amount of time has passed? That's what "predictions" are all about, isn't it? PREDICTING what will come to pass? Does he really not grasp the concept?

If you're gonna make off-the-wall, stupid predictions, you're open to ridicule, however long after you make them, simple as that. Whining about it afterwards only makes you look more idiotic. Of course, the fact that their predictions were SO wide of the mark would never make it occur to them that maybe they don't have their finger on the pulse of America and maybe the "information" they get isn't giving them good material from which to guess how things will go...

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 8:04 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
KPO, what's funny to me is, does Rap think predictions don't count after a certain amount of time has passed? That's what "predictions" are all about, isn't it?

Exactly, the difficulty in predicting something months in advance didn't stop him from making the prediction, or from saying he was "pretty sure" about it.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 8:17 AM

STORYMARK

Quote:
Originally posted by Niki2:
KPO, what's funny to me is, does Rap think predictions don't count after a certain amount of time has passed? That's what "predictions" are all about, isn't it? PREDICTING what will come to pass? Does he really not grasp the concept?

And you know that only applies to him, and only if he's wrong. Had our predictions been wrong, or his correct - he'd still be harping on it.

Excuse me while I soak in all these sweet, sweet conservative tears.

"We will never have the elite, smart people on our side." -- Rick "Frothy" Santorum

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 8:33 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by Magonsdaughter:
still waiting for the best

Still compiling a list. And some 'Ones to watch'.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013 10:36 AM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:

We're in May, and you're crowing about " predictions" made after the 4th quarter 2012 growth report ?

Slow your roll there, kpo.

As for my Jan 12, 2012 off the cuff remark about Romney or Gingrich, bfd. Romney did end up as the GOP nominee, and only ran a slightly better campaign than McCain. Gingrich was a great disappointment, but of course, these were well before the primaries had even started.

As for Romney, it's generally accepted by those on the Right that after his first debate beat down of Obama, he called off the dogs, and played not to lose, instead of goign for the knock out punch. Pussy move, imo. Cost him the election. Oh well.

Oh,and Niki... as for Benghazi, the cows are already out of the barn. No need to make any further predictions.

" SO, hey, I was maybe, kinda, almost, nearly sorta wrong last time, AND people, even those dumb lib Demo commie Kenyan Muslim lovers, keep catching me WRONG on FACTUAL statements here, BUT YOU SHOULD BELIEVE ME, I'M GONNA BE RIGHT NEXT TIME."

Yah, sure, you betcha...

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Friday, May 17, 2013 7:08 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Okey-dokey, some good predictions.

Regarding the outcome of the presidential election, Jongstraw, and pretty much everyone on the left (Signy and Kiki were two exceptions) made the prediction that Obama would beat Romney. I won't bother posting everyone's predictions along this line.

But some other good ones:

On Romney's VP pick:

"Romney will pick Paul Ryan as VP pick." -- Whozit.

Credit to Whozit for his one prediction that wasn't completely wrong.

Here kpo and Storymark correctly predict that Romney's post-first debate surge won't last:

"This will, at best, give Romney a tiny bump in the national polls, that's about it." -- Storymark

"I think Obama will do better in this (2nd) debate, and enough to halt Romney's momentum in the polls." -- kpo

Paul Krugman correctly predicts back in January an uptick in Japan's economy on the back of economic stimulus:

Paul Krugman wonders if/suggests Japan will perform surprisingly well in the short/medium term because it has just launched fresh stimulus plans: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/is-japan-the-country-of-th
e-future-again/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

Ezra Klein correctly predicted the US deficit would soon get under control:

Ezra Klein believes the US deficit is set to fix itself

kpo and Jongs both bet on Biden in the VP debate:

"Call me crazy but I don't think Biden will lose the VP debate - and might even edge it." -- kpo

"I think Biden will win this debate... Biden's going to be fired up..." -- Jongstraw

Kwicko ahead of the 2nd presidential debate:

"I predict that no matter what happens, Republicans will claim that Romney won." --Kwicko

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, May 17, 2013 8:34 AM

NIKI2

Gettin' old, but still a hippie at heart...

Bah, the logical, correct predictions are boring; the crazy ones are MUCH more fun.

And no fun Klein and Krugman; I want the fun ones from RWED! ;o) We hear so MANY insane statements and predictions from our crazier members, I get my kicks out of seeing just how crazy and out there they were...

(Don't mind me, I'm outta here anyway...)

(NewOld: good 'un! And Mark, another winner: "Yes, the cows are out, and have turned out to be.... just cows, nothing more. Not even cows under a cover-up.")

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Friday, May 17, 2013 9:55 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Haha you're right, the accurate predictions aren't as fun, but they had to be recorded for posterity. And yes, I sensed as I copied the Krugman and Klein predictions that no one would be interested me in their econo-wonk predictions (besides me).. but I was scraping the barrel really. 90% of the correct predictions were some form of "Obama will win in 2012". Maybe I should've just done a roll call of people that got that prediction right.

Having said that, here are the 'ones to watch', which I think are a bit more interesting:

Ones to watch:

kpo (pre-2012) - "Democrats will win 4 out of the next 5 presidential elections."

Signy - "The REAL problems for the winner... whoever it is ... go far beyond the Democratic/ Republican and center/right domestic dynamic. Economists are thinking there could be an even bigger economic downturn waiting in 2013...Greece might still exit the Eurozone, which would drive Spain and Portugal into bankruptcy. The Chinese economy looks like it's coming down for a hard landing because their policy of increasing internal demand and investing in infrastructure hasn't been enough. Brazil is slowing down... There is also the problem global climate shift..."

CTS, in the 'Iran's currency plummets in value' thread - "We shouldn't gloat, cause our turn is next." (sentiments echoed by Dreamtrove)

Cavetroll - "that "quantitative easing" that the Fed has been doing? It's devaluing the worth of the dollar."

Cavetroll - "Can Weimar style inflation be far off?"

NateSilver - "If the parties continue down the same paths, however, this won’t be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue."

Auraptor - "Obamacare's effects will be 'the exact opposite' to its stated goals, ie. lower costs, better quality, better access for people with pre-existing conditions."

Jongs, on Benghazi - "this will be Obama's Watergate."

Geezer thinks that if Assad's regime falls in Syria, there may be some interesting revelations about what happened to Sadaam's WMD. Auraptor agrees.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Friday, May 17, 2013 12:17 PM

BYTEMITE

The only prediction I can remember making is that Egypt's Arab Spring would turn out to be a military coup, and I also made one about how China has so many social problems and is living in such an economic bubble that I'm not sure how long it will last. But I also thought that there might be a Chinese revolution in like ten to fifteen years.

My current prediction is that if we go to war with either Syria or Iran I will continue to think it's a pointless effort meant only to cater to Israel. I also predict if we manage to install new regimes in either of those countries we'll find out said regimes are corrupt or theocrats or a military coup within six months.

I don't even KNOW what's going on in Libya right now. I suspect it sucks? Benghazi was probably the tip of the ice berg of unrest and violence in Libya.

I predict that nothing will happen to ban guns or abortions.

I predict that there's probably not much reason to worry about whatever specific controversy or policy or event or economic downturn the media is whining over today, as most of the people who can make accurate predictions about this stuff aren't often well known or quoted, and the ones who are right about something who get noticed are mostly the result of cognitive bias and no one remembers their names after a few months, let alone will notice if their next predictions are wrong.

I predict more oil pipeline leaks.

Unfortunately, there aren't any obvious things to say about Presidential candidates yet like there was about how Mitt Romney would be the 2012 candidate but wouldn't have a chance. But I imagine Hillary Clinton, Alan Grayson, Mark Rubio, and Paul Ryan will all probably feature prominently in the next three ring election circus.

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Friday, May 17, 2013 12:50 PM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Quote:
Originally posted by BYTEMITE:
there aren't any obvious things to say about Presidential candidates yet like there was about how Mitt Romney would be the 2012 candidate but wouldn't have a chance. But I imagine Hillary Clinton, Alan Grayson, Mark Rubio, and Paul Ryan will all probably feature prominently in the next three ring election circus.

E-T-A: out of respect for kpo, and his original one rule, " Predictions must be in red,", I'll take a whack at using color. I never do it.

The Republican party insiders have a sorta pattern of " you were the loser for VP last time; or, you were the loser in the primaries last time; so, it's your turn this time." SO I'd predict Ryan for Pres in 2016. Qualifier: unless they radically re-think their whole philosophy, which pundits have been saying that they MUST. Another qualifier: Because of the caucuses and primaries, he's gotta win some support. I'd pick him as the front runner , at least.

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Friday, May 17, 2013 12:57 PM

HKCAVALIER

If Ryan is nominated, he will lose bigger than Romney did. That is all.

HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.

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Friday, May 17, 2013 1:01 PM

AURAPTOR

America loves a winner!

Had I known Newt would run a brain dead campaign, and Mitt only go half assed on his, I'd not have picked them by double digits.

At worst, a slim victory for Mitt, would have been my more thoughtful pick.

4 million Republicans sitting home... Didn't see that one comin'.

Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen

Resident USA Freedom Fundie

" AU, that was great, LOL!! " - Chrisisall

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Friday, May 17, 2013 1:04 PM

NEWOLDBROWNCOAT

Quote:
Originally posted by HKCavalier:
If Ryan is nominated, he will lose bigger than Romney did. That is all.

HKCavalier

Hey, hey, hey, don't be mean. We don't have to be mean, because, remember, no matter where you go, there you are.

I'm not predicting he'll WIN. Just that he'll get the nomination. Maybe...

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Friday, May 17, 2013 1:19 PM

BYTEMITE

Quote:
Mitt only go half assed on his

Yeah, boy, makes you wonder if election winners aren't worked out by both parties in advance nudge nudge wink wink.

Although I like to think Mitt wouldn't have won in any world because living in Utah I had a taste of his leadership and he's terrible at it. Also not really thrilled with him as a person.

But I'd been seeing the 2012 outcome since 2008. It was just more obvious than usual who TPTB had picked to win this time around. And they put someone very few people knew up against their choice, and anyone with more than a passing acquaintance would recognize Mitt as a jobber. Totally deliberately thrown.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Jobber

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Friday, May 17, 2013 7:33 PM

JONGSSTRAW

Quote:

Jongs, on Benghazi - "this will be Obama's Watergate."

And just today, we saw this....

"Bob Woodward compares Benghazi with Watergate." He said it Friday morning on MSNBC.

http://news.yahoo.com/bob-woodward-compares-benghazi-watergate-1534120
76.html?.tsrc=samsungwn&.sep=table

And if Bob Woodward doesn't know a Watergate when he sees one, who does? Pretty freaky.

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Saturday, May 18, 2013 12:40 AM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Had I known Newt would run a brain dead campaign, and Mitt only go half assed on his, I'd not have picked them by double digits.

At worst, a slim victory for Mitt, would have been my more thoughtful pick.

You had plenty of opportunities to make a more 'thoughtful' pick, up until the election. Instead we heard:

It's 'clear' to Auraptor that Romney will beat Obama

Auraptor - "Romney and Ryan will win. Period. Time for you to wake up to that fact."

Auraptor - "You go ahead and believe the heavily biased Democrat sampled polls. I'm giddy over the Ryan pick, and can't wait for a complete and total ASS KICKING come November."

Auraptor cites the Romney funding boost as proof in his new thread 'Why Obama is losing'.

Auraptor - "if the GOP wins ( and they will)..."

Auraptor - "And this is BEFORE Mitt's 2 terms as President."

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:23 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Quote:
Originally posted by AURaptor:

Had I known Newt would run a brain dead campaign, and Mitt only go half assed on his, I'd not have picked them by double digits.

At worst, a slim victory for Mitt, would have been my more thoughtful pick.

4 million Republicans sitting home... Didn't see that one comin'.

Excuses, excuses...

(Edit: Oh wait, I already replied to that! Never mind.)

Jongsstraw's excuses about his Benghazi = Obama's Watergate prediction:

"Perhaps if a John Dean figure emerges from Obama's inner circle at some point it might be different. But then again, there would also need to be an honest Attorney General, as well as an inquisitive and confrontational press to ever have any Watergate-type justice."

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 12:38 PM

STORYMARK

Its cute seeing him try to rationalize the loss by saying Romney didn't try. Poor boy just can't face reality.

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:09 PM

KPO

Sometimes you own the libs. Sometimes, the libs own you.

Haha yes, the man has a rare gift.

I've felt quite proud re-reading this thread. Maybe in 2014 I'll get more tightly back on the predictions.

It's not personal. It's just war.

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Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:16 PM

STORYMARK

Quote:
Originally posted by G:

I've never encountered anyone so consistently and completely wrong about everything - I kind of feel like we're witnessing something pretty special.

Like our own lil' Bill Kristol.

"Goram it kid, let's frak this thing and go home! Engage!"

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