Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup by SIGNYM

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Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup

POSTED BY: SIGNYM
UPDATED: Sunday, August 25, 2013 07:17
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Saturday, August 24, 2013 7:45 PM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

Says Nate Silver

Quote:
A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.

The chart below reflects our current overview of the Senate landscape, including the probability estimates. (The estimates are not based strictly on a formula but instead are best guesses, accounting for the partisan lean of each state, the quality of the prospective candidates, and approval-rating or polling data to the extent that it might be informative.) When we last conducted this exercise in February, our projection was for Republicans to win between 49 and 50 Senate seats, meaning that their standing has improved by about one seat since then.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/15/senate-control-in-
2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/?_r=0#more-40702

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Saturday, August 24, 2013 9:35 PM

1KIKI

Goodbye, kind world (George Monbiot) - In common with all those generations which have contemplated catastrophe, we appear to be incapable of understanding what confronts us.

Thanks Obama.

You done your party proud with your principled stand on prosecuting criminals in the Bush administration and the too-big-to-fail financial institutions, and closing Gitmo; with your robust support of working Americans and a meaningful jobs recovery; your protection of the environment especially diligent with the BP Macando oil spill and the various tar-sands pipeline*S* approved, not to mention your definitive role in Japan by helping out with Fukushima; your transparent government and protection of ordinary citizens and their privacy; and many other stellar accomplishments.

Oh wait - I must have been dreaming.

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Sunday, August 25, 2013 7:17 AM

SIGNYM

I believe in solving problems, not sharing them.

The Dem retirements are in Michigan, Iowa, Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota. Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota are pretty heavily Republican; their current Democratic Senators are an anomaly. But the survey results always total up to 100%, so I wonder what role independents might play in any particular election.

Also, in the future, toss-up states are N Carolina, Louisiana, and Arkansas. In future elections is where the GOP will most likely focus on voter suppression. I would also look closely for vote fraud- not by voters but by vote counters.

The Supreme Court majority did the job that they were appointed to do (by politicians supported by Big Money): They gave corporations a blank check, and did away with the Voting Rights Act. While liberals were carried away by the gay marriage vote, that was just confetti to distract from the Voting Rights Act decision. Harry Reid should have been addressing voting rights and gerrymadering, and the fillibuster. Also, he should have taken a principled stand on one or two things, to distinguish himself and the Senate Dems from Obama lapdogs.

OTOH, since the fillibuster is still in place, the Senate Dems, (if they can find their spines) have a chance to gum up the works as badly as the Repubs do. But I'll bet you dollars to donuts that should the Dems (if they become a minority) pull the fillibuster option like the Repubs to, the Repubs will find THEIR balls and yank the fillibuster so fast you won't even be able to get thru saying the word.

Reid has been ineffective and indecisive. He keeps hoping- despite the historic times that we find ourselves in- to keep his comfortable middle-of-the-road triangluation, just like Bill Clinton. But this are not a Clinton economy, and not a Clinton foreign policy situation. Reid can afford to be middle of the road about some things, but he HAS to carve out a stand on at least a few things to let people know that the Senate Dems stand for something.

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